The Staff
Clearly, the Mariners aren’t done making changes to their roster. I’d imagine we’ll see another trade or two before the off-season ends, as the current pitching staff has a lot of unanswered questions. Based on what’s here today, this is how I’d project the pitching staff for 2009.
#1 Starter: Felix Hernandez
#2 Starter: Erik Bedard
#3 Starter: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
#4 Starter: Carlos Silva
#5 Starter: Jarrod Washburn or Ryan Rowland-Smith
Closer: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
RH Setup: Miguel Batista
LH Setup: Jason Vargas or Ryan Rowland-Smith
RH Middle: Roy Corcoran
LH Middle: Jose Lugo or Jason Vargas
Mopup: Mark Lowe
Long: Cesar Jimenez or Jason Vargas
If you notice, there’s 13 names up there, and this assumes the M’s will go with a 12 man pitching staff. They may only go 11 deep. Either way, one or two guys from above won’t be making the roster, and if you think Justin Thomas might sneak into the LH reliever competition, that would make 14 names. A few people are going to have to go away.
Silva and Batista aren’t going anywhere. There’s just no way to get rid of their contracts, and both are at their lowest point in terms of value. The best for both is to try to put them in situations where they have a quality defense behind them and hope for a good first half. If Batista settles in as a decent reliever, you might be able to dump him in July. With Silva, you’re just hoping he gives you 160 decent enough innings, and then maybe you can eat half of his contract next winter to be rid of him.
The guys that you want on the roster, without question, are Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Heilman, and Rowland-Smith. Those five should come to camp with significant job security. The latter three may not have defined roles right now, but we should be pretty confidant that they’re on the staff. Combined with the two total albatross contracts, that makes a pitching staff of seven that you’re pretty set on.
The other six guys are the marginal ones. The team should move Washburn if they can, but there was no interest in him at the winter meetings, so they might be forced to carry him into spring training and hope that some team gets interested when someone on their staff gets hurt. If that’s the case, then you lose a rotation spot to hand to Rowland-Smith, and he goes to the ‘pen, which means one less job for the Vargas/Lugo/Jimenez trio to fight over. Lugo has the advantage of being a Rule 5 guy, so he’s more likely to stick than guys with options left. Vargas has good get-out-lefty stuff, which Jimenez does not, so Vargas is more likely to stick as the traditional LH setup guy, while Jimenez is probably best suited as a long reliever.
Corcoran pitched well last year, and probably slides into the Sean Green role of groundballing right-handed relief guy, while Lowe gets handed a low leverage role until he can prove that he’s close to getting his stuff and command back.
That brings us to the big issue – Heilman and Morrow. Both want to start – Morrow has made it very clear that he thinks he proved he can be a starter in the big leagues at the end of the season, while Heilman demanded a trade because he wanted a chance to prove he could take the hill every five days as he heads towards free agency in 2010. With the roster the way it is right now, there simply isn’t room for both. One of them will amost certainly be asked to head to the bullpen, and would head into spring training as the most likely option to begin the year as the closer.
That’s not what either of them, or the organization for that matter, would deem as the best option long term. Realistically, this team needs to lose a starting pitcher or two and pick up a right-handed reliever who can get get both RHB and LHB out. There are options to get that point (eat a lot of money to move Washburn being the obvious one), but none of them are great options.
So far, we’ve given Zduriencik a big thumbs up for his early moves. Picking up guys like Branyan and Shelton on the cheap were astute moves, and the Putz trade was a fantastic one for the organization, but now it gets harder. If he’s really going to expedite the reshaping of this roster and get us setup to have a solid team that is building towards 2010, he needs to figure out how to toss Jarrod Washburn overboard without taking a bad contract back and convince RR-S to hang out in the bullpen until they have a chance to figure out what to do with Bedard.
Realistically, the M’s goal should be to end the 2009 season with a rotation of Felix, Morrow, Heilman, Silva, and Rowland-Smith. Getting there won’t be easy. Now we find out just how good of a GM Zduriencik can really be.
If fans don’t have personal relationships with players, then fans should draw conclusions about players as if they do.
Just because the media don’t like Bedard is no reason why you can’t. They don’t get to decide for you whom you like or dislike.
Nate got me thinking…
Would it be possible for the M’s to platoon defenses depending on the pitching? So if Washburn, RRS, Morrow, Bedard, or other fly ballers are pitching run out Ichiro/Gutierrez/Chavez for the best OF defense this side of 2001. On the flip side, if you have Silva, Felix, Batista, or other ground ballers starting, run out the best infield defense possible.
What would those platoons look like and would it make sense for the team to do something like that?
Evan: Just because the media don’t like Bedard is no reason why you can’t. They don’t get to decide for you whom you like or dislike.
I didn’t mean to imply that we should all follow the media like thoughtless drones. What I simply meant is the media (including guys like Niehaus; they’re media too) play a major role in how we form our opinions (about many things in life; not just sports). That’s all I meant. I’m a Bobby Ayala fan for crying out loud! lol
I get the feeling that the 2009 rotation will look more like last year’s edition. Zduriencik has a lot less wiggle room with the pitching staff then he has with the rest of the team. I just hope with the moves he’s made, the rest of the team can carry the pitching staff to make them palatable or even tradable. Unlike many people, I don’t expect all the moves to be complete by the start of the season. Fixing a roof with this many leaks will take some time. Things I am hoping for are:
1: The new defensive-minded outfield will vastly improve Silvia, Washburn, Batista, and company numbers’ enough to attract a decent deal before the deadline.
2: Washburn, if he is staying, doesn’t cause another international incident in the locker room.
3: Bedard bounces back enough to at least field a few tempting offers at the deadline.
I like what Zduriencik has done so far. Hopefully by this time next year, we will have a better rotation behind King Felix.
And I’m saying they shouldn’t. We should struggle against that.
Just wanted to comment on the possibility of a mid-season Bedard trade and what we can expect in return. In my view, thinking that we’ll get a major league player back is crazy. First of all, how often does that happen in mid-season trades? Answer: not often, and it certainly isn’t likely in this case if Bedard isn’t pitching at his absolute best.
No, I think what you’re looking for is something like Dave’s estimate of a couple B- prospects. Where you could wind up doing better than expected is if Z-Man and his scouting staff are a little smarter than their counterparts in evaluating minor league talent and those guys that everyone thinks are mid-level talents actually develop into quite a bit more than that.
b.) Batista. I think Batista is just done. I don’t think he can close, I don’t think he can setup, I think he’d struggle in middle relief. I might be wrong, but he’ll be 38 and his xFIP and BB/9 have been steadily climbing for three years. He might not have anything in the tank.
As far as Morrow and Heilman, can we stick both in the rotation? Shove Silva into the pen as the league’s most overpaid swingman. If Heilman can’t develop the slider, or if someone gets hurt, then Silva goes into the rotation. I guess we still need a closer (hey, Silva!). Or would sticking him in the pen be too damaging to whatever hopes we might have of trading him?
What I completely expect is that Bedard will pitch like as much of a beast as what he can- this is his one shot at a big-money, set-for-life deal, and I’m positive he saw what guys like A.J. Burnett are getting, lengthy medic-sheet be damned.
This next sentence might well get me laughed at: but I think Carlos Silva will have a much better year in 2009. Like, 13-win good. As everybody knows, some poundage needs to drop first for that to happen- but I think he will. He’s a proud, emotional guy, and I think last year embarrassed him personally (as well it should have).
And after 2008, maybe karmically (if one believes in that) we’re due to have the good fortune of having two of our bigger albatrosses become assets we can trade away for better market value.
Don’t want the moon, just some more useful pieces.
Heilman is the guy who I have to flip a coin on: but like many of you, I ultimately don’t believe him to be good enough to be a 170+ IP starter, with good results. I think, however, he’s got a shot to be a much better-than-average closer. His attitude, I think, will actually determine a lot on next year’s team.
Not a bad prediction, but wins aren’t a good indicator of a pitcher’s performance. Also, Silva has shown his proud, emotional nature by complaining about other players and threatening to beat up his teammates.
This next sentence might well get me laughed at: but I think Carlos Silva will have a much better year in 2009. Like, 13-win good.
You were probably right on the mark until you described pitcher goodness with # of wins.
Why don’t we just give Batista the boot? Do we really think he’s one of our 12 best ML ready pitchers? He walked more than he struck out last year, and at 37, he’s unlikely to even repeat last year.
Also, if we think both Heilman and Morrow will be better for the team in the rotation than Washburn or Silva, we should not hesitate to relegate both Washburn and Silva to the bullpen.
IMHO, wins can be an indicator of pitching-goodness- they just shouldn’t be the sole indicator. I don’t confuse Silva winning 13 with necessarily being good- if he goes 13-13 or some other median number, that isn’t as beneficial to the Mariners.
Heck, Batista won 16 in 2007, and I knew that was a mirage. Probably every other way to determine a ball-player’s worth said so- ERA (which I both disregard and notice brings out the cannons from some) and WHIP.
I would’ve used a far more sabermetric example of such than those in describing what I think will happen with Silva, but my knowledge of SABR stinks and I’m just now trying to get to speed on it. So, I used what I knew.
Wins are a terrible, terrible indicator of pitcher effectiveness.
I think Carlos Silva is a decent bet to bounce back in 2009. However, it’s a good idea to avoid using wins to determine this whenever possible. After all, Horacio Ramirez (2007) spent over half the season being undefeated in home games and finished the season with a winning record.
For one thing, Silva’s BABIP was at .347 last season, highest of his career. FIP didn’t drop that much from his previous season with the Twins.
And now with some much needed focus on defense if anyone stands a chance to gain from it it’s Carlos Silva.
I think Carlos Silva stands a good chance to be more effective than last year (whether you measure effectiveness in xFIP, ERA, Wins, or favorable references on BBTN), but I wonder if he’s worth derailing either Morrow or Heilman in order to realize his +1.75 wins potential.
There’s very little chance that Bedard ends up as a Type A free agent next year. It goes off of your last two years, and Bedard’s 2007 was just not that impressive.
When assessing Aaron Heilman’s trade value, let’s not forget that he’s probably a current Type A player despite the disappointing numbers he posted in 2008.
Heilman won’t be a free agent until after the 2010 season when his Elias ranking will be based only on his 2009 and 2010 statistics. Still, if Heilman can again establish the Type A status, he should be worth at least two top draft picks (if not much more) in a trade.
Colorado reportedly expressed interest in Heilman as a starter, but was unwilling to send Huston Street to the Mets in exchange. Street could fill Seattle’s closer vacancy, but the price would likely be too high in terms of players and salary (Street, who is arbitration eligible, earned $3.3 million in 2008).
Instead, Seattle could target Colorado’s low-level, high-ceiling prospects, including promising 20-year-old shortstop Hector Gomez, who suffered a season-ending injury on Opening Day 2008. Other options include Rockie bullpen prospects from the Single A Asheville Tourists: Joey Williamson, Edgmer Escalona, Craig Baker and Matthew Reynolds (the latter was a college teammate of Mariner closer prospect Shawn Kelley).
JMHawkins- if it’s a case of either Silva or Morrow and you have to choose between ’em, to me it’s no contest. You stick Morrow in and live with the jokes of having a $12-million-dollar-swingman.
I really can’t help but agree with most of Dave’s idea of the pitching staff, though.
The only thing I differ on is that I think it’ll be Feierabend in the lefty-long man role, not Jimenez.
IMHO, wins is an indicator of pitching-goodness–like an unsharpened rock can be a cutting instruments. Beats a pound of jello….but doesn’t compare to a scalpel.
What about Bedard as closer? I don’t know if he can pitch often enough, but it would cut his workload if he can, and maybe keep him healthy. He’s certainly got the stuff if he can stay healthy and be resilient enough.
Crazy talk.
Silva is bound for an ENORMOUS rebound. He was abysmally unlucky with his LOB% and BABIP, which were 61.1% and .347 respectively, which are sure to regress significantly. His FIP was 4.62 (career average is 4.53) and he actually posted his highest K/9 since 2003 with a 4.05, though his BB/9 (probably not coincidentally) was also the highest it’s been since 2003. Now I don’t really want to do the math right now (and I’d probably mess it up big-time), but if you regress his BABIP from .347 to a more reasonable number (.310-.320 range?) and I imagine those K/9 and BB/9 fall back to his averages with Minnesota (3.5 and 1.5, roughly) as balls in play are turned into outs at a higher rate. With better luck and a better defense, he could only be a mildly below average starter – he’s a fine #4 or #5 SP, just overpaid.
Unfortunately for Silva (and us and GMZ), he doesn’t look to benefit from the zippy new outfield as much as the others, being an extreme groundball pitcher – his highest FB% EVER is 34.2% from 2006, with career LD/GB/FB percentages of 20.2/48/31.8. Compare with Washburn who has a career 16.9/37.1/46 line. Batista’s career numbers are similar to Silva’s but trending more towards Washburn’s in the last couple years.
I doubt GMZ is trying to move Silva this year. Even at the halfway point there’ll still be alot left on that contract, and it’ll take more than a decent start to ’09 to make people forget about his ’08. Also, due to his GB tendancies and GMZ’s recent outfield defensive revamp (presumably to raise Wash/Batista value), we might be able to get an idea as to when GMZ’s looking to finally get rid of Silva by when he acquires a slick-fielding SS who gets the start when Silva takes the hill. And unfortunately, Silva spending significant time in the bullpen WILL likely hurt his trade stock in the future.
I’m just hoping there’s a Heilman (+ others maybe) for a decent defensive minded SS prospect who can contribute to the ML club in a season or two, or Heilman accepts the closer job. Then you have Felix/Bedard/Morrow/Silva/Washburn rotation with Batista and RRS in the pen – with RRS set to take over if someone gets injured or if midway through the season Washburn’s stinking it up and not helping his trade stock.
Any news on a Felix extension? I’d guess he’s a type A at the moment(?)
Bedard as a closer would be a horrible idea. We don’t know if he can pitch consistently, and if he can’t this could mean losing us a handful of games early in the season. Furthermore, he did not do that bad out of the starting role last year, just had some injury problems, which he has had his whole life, they weren’t due to a huge workload. This move would also piss off fans more than the trade already has, because you can always find a viable guy to fill in the closer spot, you can’t find many who can start and post a similar ERA to Bedard’s, even his of last year. So the idea of trading Tillman and Adam Jones for a closer, who we don’t know if he can even close, and who has an absurd contract, would cause many fans to state unhappy opinions.
I believe we’re still a few years away from Felix hitting free agency.
[off-topic]
Any news on a Felix extension? I’d guess he’s a type A at the moment(?)
He is indeed a Type A this offseason, but he’s three years away from free agency, perhaps longer if the team can buy out a year or two of free agency with an extension. Please happen.
So the idea of trading Tillman and Adam Jones for a closer, who we don’t know if he can even close, and who has an absurd contract, would cause many fans to state unhappy opinions.
Not to take too much away from your overall point, but Bedard doesn’t have “an absurd contract.” He gets a raise every year in arbitration, but if he weren’t worth it, the team could just non-tender him and wouldn’t owe him a dime. Of all the pitchers on this team and others who are signed to bad contracts, Bedard’s not one of them. Bedard doesn’t even technically have a contract right now.
What about Felix as closer?
We don’t know if he can pitch consistently, and if he can’t this could mean losing us a handful of games early in the season.
So if he can’t pitch consistently, how is he going to be any more useful as a starter than as a reliever?
This doesn’t mean using Bedard as a reliever is a good idea, because it isn’t- I’m not convinced that workload of starter > workload of closer doing things like pitching 2-3 days in a row, having to warm up multiple times in a game, for one thing, and Bedard is a successful starter when healthy… but if Bedard is going to flop as a starter because of health issues, he’s not likely to be more useful as a reliever.
What about Felix as closer?
What about Ichiro as closer? He supposedly can get it up to 93…
I was actually wondering about Washburn as a closer. That would keep RRS and Morrow both in the rotation, you make Heilmann the long man with the promise of the first slot in the rotation if he plays nice (and I figure May 1 as the date Silva goes on the DL for obesity training).
I’d be interested to see how well wins correlates with tRA, and then compare that to how handedness, or height, or latitude of birth correlates with tRA.
I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one of those beats wins.
Does Silva really need training to learn how to be obese?
How much do we think we will see our pitchers improve, just by the improved defense?
Yeah. The biggest loser has to go on Biggest Loser.
The guys will be able to answer this with more specifics, but if you want some idea of what drastically improving your defense can do for you, look no further than the ’08 Rays.
Soooo, with the Braves inking Furcal to a new deal and still looking for rotation help, is there anyway we make a move for Yunel Escobar?
And yet HoRam is curiously still avaiable to Atlanta.
I was thinking about this prospect last night. Maybe a package of Bedard and Yuni/Lopez for Escobar and a couple of high-B prospects or some high-risk/high-reward lower minors types. I just can’t see the Braves going for that though.
Not anymore…KC signed Horacio a day or two ago.
Aaron M.
Pitching consistently from the starting role and the closer role are two different things. And lets stop the crap about moving everyone to closer. FELIX?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! THAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE WORST DECISIONS OF THE 21 CENTURY AND BY FAR THE WORST MARINERS DECISION EVER! And Jarrod Washburn… The guy is a slow-throwing, contact pitcher, not exactly the guy you want closin out games…
The guy is a slow-throwing, contact pitcher, not exactly the guy you want closin out games…
Eddie Guardado wasn’t too bad if I’m not mistaken.
And why is everyone hating on Bedard, his injury wasn’t even as serious as they expected. Plus he wasn’t even that bad considering he was pitching hurt the whole year pretty much. It’s hard to pitch when you’re hurting I would know.
I’m about 99.99999% sure the “Felix as closer” post was sarcasm.
I would love to see Yunel sub in for Yuni. Escobar has got a higher ceiling by far than Betancourt. Yunel Escobar posted a .288 BA, .366 OBP, .401 Slugging, .766 OPS. He had 59 walks compared to Yuni’s whopping 17 walks. Yuni’s line was .279 BA, .300 OBP, .392 Slugging, .691 OPS
Not to mention Escobar had an awesome year with the glove in 2008. He was rated a +21 defensively according to Dewan’s +/- Fielding Bible, +10 defensively according to Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report and +12 defensively according to Lichtman’s UZR ranking him 6th among all MLB SS. Betancourt had a +/- of -19, -31 UZR, and a -14 PMR along with a -30 RZR making him dead last in the MLB among SS.
With Heilman, it’d be interesting to compare 2006/2007 pitching mechanics vs. 2008 mechanics. If he added that slider, perhaps he altered his motion (as suggested), which negatively impacted his 2008 numbers. Were he to simply abandon the slider and revert to his previous mechanics (wind-up, delivery, extension, arm angle, etc), perhaps he’d return to form. That could account for his fastball issues.
To start off, first post on the site, so I’ll try not to sound like an idiot.
The outfield defense has obviously been improved, and is probably the best defensive outfield in baseball. Assuming (a lot to do, I know) that Betancourt has learned how to throw the ball to the first baseman and not the fans sitting along the first base line, the infield defense should be solid, but not spectacular.
So far, we’ve seen that Z is a pretty no-nonsense guy, and hopefully Wakamatsu (sp?) is a reflection of the GM’s personality as well. Heilman should be in the bullpen, probably starting games. The rotation should be Felix, Bedard, Morrow, RRS, and Silva. Looking at the roster, if you’re trying to win games, that’s really the only rotation that makes sense. From what I’ve heard, Silva is working hard on not being a humongous fat ass this off-season. Maybe he won’t suck next year, but he’s a 5th starter anyway. 1-4 matches up pretty well with MOST teams in the AL. I don’t know what to do with Washburn, he’s not part of any long term plans and has little trade value at this point. Maybe the Braves will take him, they took Vasquez after all…
I was pretty surprised that Z didn’t make the move to get Mike Jacobs from the Marlins. I don’t remember them getting a ton in return for him, but he would have answered the questions at 1B.