The Staff
Clearly, the Mariners aren’t done making changes to their roster. I’d imagine we’ll see another trade or two before the off-season ends, as the current pitching staff has a lot of unanswered questions. Based on what’s here today, this is how I’d project the pitching staff for 2009.
#1 Starter: Felix Hernandez
#2 Starter: Erik Bedard
#3 Starter: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
#4 Starter: Carlos Silva
#5 Starter: Jarrod Washburn or Ryan Rowland-Smith
Closer: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
RH Setup: Miguel Batista
LH Setup: Jason Vargas or Ryan Rowland-Smith
RH Middle: Roy Corcoran
LH Middle: Jose Lugo or Jason Vargas
Mopup: Mark Lowe
Long: Cesar Jimenez or Jason Vargas
If you notice, there’s 13 names up there, and this assumes the M’s will go with a 12 man pitching staff. They may only go 11 deep. Either way, one or two guys from above won’t be making the roster, and if you think Justin Thomas might sneak into the LH reliever competition, that would make 14 names. A few people are going to have to go away.
Silva and Batista aren’t going anywhere. There’s just no way to get rid of their contracts, and both are at their lowest point in terms of value. The best for both is to try to put them in situations where they have a quality defense behind them and hope for a good first half. If Batista settles in as a decent reliever, you might be able to dump him in July. With Silva, you’re just hoping he gives you 160 decent enough innings, and then maybe you can eat half of his contract next winter to be rid of him.
The guys that you want on the roster, without question, are Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Heilman, and Rowland-Smith. Those five should come to camp with significant job security. The latter three may not have defined roles right now, but we should be pretty confidant that they’re on the staff. Combined with the two total albatross contracts, that makes a pitching staff of seven that you’re pretty set on.
The other six guys are the marginal ones. The team should move Washburn if they can, but there was no interest in him at the winter meetings, so they might be forced to carry him into spring training and hope that some team gets interested when someone on their staff gets hurt. If that’s the case, then you lose a rotation spot to hand to Rowland-Smith, and he goes to the ‘pen, which means one less job for the Vargas/Lugo/Jimenez trio to fight over. Lugo has the advantage of being a Rule 5 guy, so he’s more likely to stick than guys with options left. Vargas has good get-out-lefty stuff, which Jimenez does not, so Vargas is more likely to stick as the traditional LH setup guy, while Jimenez is probably best suited as a long reliever.
Corcoran pitched well last year, and probably slides into the Sean Green role of groundballing right-handed relief guy, while Lowe gets handed a low leverage role until he can prove that he’s close to getting his stuff and command back.
That brings us to the big issue – Heilman and Morrow. Both want to start – Morrow has made it very clear that he thinks he proved he can be a starter in the big leagues at the end of the season, while Heilman demanded a trade because he wanted a chance to prove he could take the hill every five days as he heads towards free agency in 2010. With the roster the way it is right now, there simply isn’t room for both. One of them will amost certainly be asked to head to the bullpen, and would head into spring training as the most likely option to begin the year as the closer.
That’s not what either of them, or the organization for that matter, would deem as the best option long term. Realistically, this team needs to lose a starting pitcher or two and pick up a right-handed reliever who can get get both RHB and LHB out. There are options to get that point (eat a lot of money to move Washburn being the obvious one), but none of them are great options.
So far, we’ve given Zduriencik a big thumbs up for his early moves. Picking up guys like Branyan and Shelton on the cheap were astute moves, and the Putz trade was a fantastic one for the organization, but now it gets harder. If he’s really going to expedite the reshaping of this roster and get us setup to have a solid team that is building towards 2010, he needs to figure out how to toss Jarrod Washburn overboard without taking a bad contract back and convince RR-S to hang out in the bullpen until they have a chance to figure out what to do with Bedard.
Realistically, the M’s goal should be to end the 2009 season with a rotation of Felix, Morrow, Heilman, Silva, and Rowland-Smith. Getting there won’t be easy. Now we find out just how good of a GM Zduriencik can really be.
I’m stoked. But how does Heilman fit into the organization’s long-term plans?
Heilman is a free agent after ’09. I’m guessing he’s just a one-year stopgap that Zduriencik was willing to take off the Mets’ hands.
Here’s hoping Heilman will bite the bullet and take a move to the bullpen pending Morrow’s performance in the rotation.
What kind of value do you think Heilman has the trade market, though?
Wouldn’t it be better to put RRS in Tacoma, so he can continue to be a “starter”…or is he out of options?
Is Heilman even good enough to be a starter?
Dave, do you think there’s a chance for Bedard to re-establish his value enough that we can get a decent return on him at the trade deadline?
Or do you think he still has decent trade value now?
As far as Washburn goes, I’m okay with eating a lot of his contract to get him off the roster, even better if we can get a marginal bit of talent back in return.
While we’re on the pitchers, do you think we’ll see a different Bedard this seaosn, not just on the field, but off it? He sure didn’t win himself many fans. Also, what are the chances of picking up a guy like Chuck James who was non-tendered. Certainly has a higher rotatio upside than heilman. Obviously, it’d require eating and dumping washburn and/or Silva to do, but…
Aaron M.
This is where it would really be great if Mark Lowe could get sharp and stay healthy. The M’s could do whatever was needed in 2009, (I’d much prefer Heilman close and Morrow start) while using Lowe in the 8th inning, the same way they did a few years ago with JJ in the 8th and Guardado in the 9th.
Then from 2010 on, Lowe would be the closer.
But that’s obviously a huge IF.
Not really. He is basically a two-pitch guy (fastball and changeup), and struggled mightily last year when he tried to throw a slider more. If Wakamatsu and the new pitching coach can convince him to ditch the slider and stay in the bullpen, he can be an effective closer.
And with a lot of the ‘pen guys probably able to go multiple innings, hopefully they go with an 11 man staff, so we can have five on the bench for once…
My choice:
Felix
Bedard
Morrow
RRS
Silva
Lowe
Corcoran
Vargas
Lugo
Batista
Thomas
You trade Heilman and Washburn for whatever you can get in separate packages…Wash and Yuni for prospects…Heilman for a SS or prospects…
I must have missed something, so this is gonna sound stupid. When is Bedard supposed to be ready? Last I heard he was going to miss the first couple months, but then I’m a little out of the loop here in Denver now.
Bedard has been cleared to resume everything and is hoping to be 100% for spring training…
“Mariners left-hander Erik Bedard received clearance on Monday to begin a rehab program on his left shoulder that could make him good to go when Spring Training begins in mid-February.
Bedard was examined in Las Vegas, site of this week’s Winter Meetings, by Dr. Lewis Yocum, the physician who removed a cyst and non-healthy tissue from the pitcher’s shoulder in a Sept. 26 operation. “
Thanks, bako.
The full story is on the team site…came out during the winter meetings…
Dave, is it fair to say you are hoping that Bedard gets healthy and is traded next season? I would think that the rotation with the highest ceiling (assuming you have to keep Silva) for the 2009-2011 seasons would be the same as the one you mentioned but with Bedard in Heilman’s place.
Also, what are the chances we work out a deal with Milwakee that works for both teams? Starting pitching from us for a SS and/or 1B from them? I have a weird feeling that Morrow may be headed out there with Washburn for Hardy or Prince or something like that.
TR Sullivan wrote about the turnover in AL West closers yesterday, and had this quote about Morrow:
“We have to sift through this,” Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik said. “For me to make that decision today would be unfair. I think that the things said to Brandon [he would be a starter] will hold true. But we’ll wait and see how Don [Wakamatsu] and his staff view the players in Spring Training and decide what their best role is.”"
hey, there is always Kirby Arnold’s notion that RRS is “a seething bulldog” who is just waiting to close…
Dave,
It doesn’t sound like you’re interested in keeping Bedard around. If he performs, he must be a better option than Heilman (who just doesn’t sound good at all as a starter). Any thought of signing him if this year goes well?
EDIT: Clearly CMC and I see eye-to-eye on this.
Heilman is under team control through 2010. He only has 4 years, 123 days of service time. Also, Vargas has an option remaining while Jimenez does not. That could factor in, but only if RRS is in the pen, since Lugo and Jimenez aren’t reliable LOOGYs at this point.
Heilman is still a popular trade target. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flipped soon. Interest in Washburn will likely pick up in January after the market has thinned out. He’s still a semi- affordable short-term rotation piece that will generate some interest.
My guess is that Heilman ends up with the closer’s gig. That should make him happy. Wash will get shipped out, allowing Morris and RRS to continue developing as starters. And Wakamatsu will end up losing all his hair trying to coax an uneventful 8th inning out of Lowe/Batista/Vargas/Corcoran.
You’d think a guy named BobbyAyalaFan4Life wouldn’t really care about how many fans a player has…
As far as Chuck James is concerned…unless he’d be willing to take a minor league deal, I’d pass. He’s coming off shoulder surgery and while it’s never a bad idea to stockpile useful arms, he basically creates another problem instead of solving one.
Heilman is a free agent after ‘09. I’m guessing he’s just a one-year stopgap that Zduriencik was willing to take off the Mets’ hands.
He’s actually not a free agent until after 2010 – there was a typo in my original post. He may end up being a stopgap, but I get the feeling that the organization likes him and thinks he can be a real contributor for the next two years. The words Ryan Dempster have been used several times in drawing a comparison.
What kind of value do you think Heilman has the trade market, though?
Not that much at the moment – he wants to start but not that many teams are convinced he can. If the M’s put him in the rotation and he proves that he can be an effective starter, it goes through the roof.
Is Heilman even good enough to be a starter?
Maybe. Probably not, but maybe. His fastball and change-up are good, his slider is not. If he can figure out how to improve his slider, then he’s a legitimate starter. As a two-pitch guy, he belongs in the bullpen.
Dave, do you think there’s a chance for Bedard to re-establish his value enough that we can get a decent return on him at the trade deadline?
I think that’s probably the idea. If he’s really ready to open the season in the rotation, then he gets a three month tryout for the other 29 clubs, and the M’s would probably hope to flip him before he breaks down again. I don’t get the feeling that there’s much interest in a long term deal with Bedard.
I would think that the rotation with the highest ceiling (assuming you have to keep Silva) for the 2009-2011 seasons would be the same as the one you mentioned but with Bedard in Heilman’s place.
The only way to keep Bedard past the 2009 season is to give him a contract extension. Free agent pitchers are rarely a good buy. Free agent pitchers with massive health problems are almost never a good buy. Free agent pitchers with massive health problems who had a miserable first year in Seattle are an even worse buy. The odds of Bedard re-signing here aren’t good. We should plan on him being elsewhere after this year.
I have a weird feeling that Morrow may be headed out there with Washburn for Hardy or Prince or something like that.
There’s no substance to those rumors. They’re just made up fan chatter.
I didn’t realize James was coming off surgery…that certainly changes the view a little.
As for Ayala, anyone with this name nows how to take a little punishment too!
I don’t really care about those things most times, but it seemed like Bedard was unusally frosty in coming here. Like I said, I’m not too big on fans usually, but I like our players to like playing for Seattle too.
Thanks for the repsonse!
Aaron M.
While we’re on the pitchers, do you think we’ll see a different Bedard this seaosn, not just on the field, but off it?
Have you ever spoken to Erik Bedard? He’s hilarious
Heilman will get traded before spring training…I obviously have no inside information, but that’s the feeling I get…
Bedard won’t resign with Seattle…but I predict he will have a GREAT season, if he is healthy…it’s his walk year, and he’ll be trying to get a huge contract somewhere east…Toronto?
Have you ever spoken to Erik Bedard? He’s hilarious
I guess I didn’t realize most people are on a talking basis with the M’s on here. My bad I guess.
So, assuming not very many other of us have had “hilarious” conversations with Bedard, there’s no denying his first season not only didn’t go well, but that he didn;t exactly endear himself either. That’s all I’m saying. Personally, I hope he works out. We’ll see.
Aaron M.
No matter what you think of Bedard, you have to figure that he KNOWS that this is the most important time for him to establish his value. He needs to come out and pitch lights out for a few months to get that giant contract he’s been waiting for. Then he plays a few more years and settles back into nowhere Canada to lead a life of raising cattle and driving 4x4s or whatever…
He strikes me as the pitching equivalent of Ichiro….not particularly tolerant of the same old questions, but willing to answer interesting questions, and possessing an offbeat sense of humor.
So are you guys still of the opinion that tendering Bedard with the intent to flip is still a bad idea?
If Bedard stays healthy, we should be in a good position to either trade him or get 2 picks, like we did with Raul…
He’ll be just a hired arm for the year…the cost was waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to high, but we have to look at it on the bright side now…
Worst case scenario is he is hurt all year and we get nothting for him…
There’s very little chance that Bedard ends up as a Type A free agent next year. It goes off of your last two years, and Bedard’s 2007 was just not that impressive.
He’d have to be a monster in ’08 to be a Type A free agent. He just barely made the cut as a Type A this year, and that includes his ’07 season. For us to expect two draft picks, we’d have to conclude that he’s likely to pitch 180-200 innings with a 3.00ish ERA. That’s a bad bet for anyone, much less Bedard.
Bedard’s just not that valuable anymore. The picks are unlikely, re-signing himis unlikely, and his trade value is pretty significantly diminished.
Best case scenario, he pitches well for three months and we flip him in July for a couple of B- prospects. Worst case scenario, he struggles/gets hurt again, and his career as a Mariner ends.
I forgot the ratings were based on 2 years…yeah, we’ll probably be screwed…
worst. freakin’. trade. ever.
it’s been interesting going back and reading the various articles and MetsesBlogs on Heilman, his history with Peterson, the way he has been moved back and forth like Morrow…
Thank you Dave. Your posts are amazing. I have a hard time believing that Bedard’s value is really that low. Obviously we can’t expect to get as much as we gave up in return because we gave up so many great pieces. (Stupid Bavasi)
But if Bedard stays healthy and pitches like the cy young candidate he can be I have to think that we can get more than a couple of B- prospects. In my opinion a lefty with big K numbers should be valued at a major league player AND a couple mid to high prospects….but maybe i’m crazy.
You’re crazy.
I still gotta believe there are buyers for Washburn. An acceptable backend starter with one year left and who’s available for probably not much.
Lowe could be a nice surprise if he bounces back from injuries. The stuff has always been there.
Let Heilman and Morrow both start. Turn Silva or Washburn into a swingman when you have to, and chances are Bedard won’t be available all of the time anyway.
I think its time for a ussmariner poll
Who is the first mariner starting pitcher to the DL with suckinitis?
a.) Washburn
b.) Batista
c.) Silva
d.) The Field
A major league player and a couple good prospects is exactly what we gave up for Bedard….. There has to be a GM in the league that is as incompetent as Bavasi. GMZ just has to find him.
How much $ is left to in the payroll to fill out the roster?
He’s an assistant in Cincinnati…
Maybe we can get the Reds to do Bedard for Votto/Bruce and some prospects…
there’s no denying his first season not only didn’t go well, but that he didn;t exactly endear himself either
So you’re talking about endearing himself to reporters rather than to fans, right?
Bavasi would not have given up Jones+Sherrill, etc. were it not for the two years we’d have Bedard under team control. You’d need a GM much stupider than Bavasi to give up the same amount for a half season of Bedard as opposed to two full ones.
Even Randy Johnson didn’t fetch that kind of return as a short term rental, and Bedard isn’t in RJ’s class as a pitcher.
So how many wins over replacement can we expect the above group to have in 2009/2010? Is this a group we can expect to contend with or is there still a long way to go with the pitching staff?
RJ trade netted the M’s:
Freddy Garcia
Carlos Guillen
John Halama
I’d take that trade again in a heartbeat for Bedard, not that we’d get it.
Graham – So you’re talking about endearing himself to reporters rather than to fans, right?
Really, it makes no difference to me. I was just curious what people’s thoughts were. And judging by the responses, my starting opinion is probably off the mark on the guy. It will be adjusted accordingly. 
I think for most ordinary fans, the media is how athletes create relationships with fans and vice versa. Most normal people don’t have personal one-on-one moments to spend with their favorite athletes. It didn;t used to be that way. I remember getting A-Rod to sign a card for me his rookie year during BP, and getting Randy and Edgar, even the Big Hurt the same way. Now, most bigtimers don’t sign before games anymore. We can only judge players a handful of ways. Media coverage (look at Bond the Hero vs. Bond the Villan), the facts/stats, how they play, and even for reasons as petty as where they come from, what they look like. Things average people can relate to. I know amongst my M’s fan friends and I, it seemed he didn’t really embrace the opportunity to be a Mariner when compared to how many fans were looking to Bedard as a savior (even if they hadn’t heard of him before, he MUST be good for what we gave away, right?). Is this fair? No. But I don’t have Bedard’s phone number, so I couldn’t call him up and find out myself
Aaron M.
I can see this two ways:
1) Put some combination of the overpaid guys in the rotation (Bedard, Silva, Washburn & Batista) and hope that they increase their value. As soon as someone wants one of those guys, ship them off and bring up Morrow and Rowland-Smith from Tacoma. or…
2) Give up on getting someone else to take some of those guys off the Mariners’ hands, have the most overpaid, crappiest bullpen in the history of MLB, and see what Morrow, Heilman, and Ryan Rowland-Smith can do in the rotation.
How would that bullpen look you ask?
Closer: Miguel Batista
RH Setup: Carlos Silva
LH Setup: Erik Bedard
RH Middle: Roy Corcoran
LH Middle: Jose Lugo
Mopup: Mark Lowe
Long: Jarrod Washburn
I don’t want to see Morrow and Rowland-Smith in the bullpen.
Joe-
I’d point you to this Dave Cameron article on how to value CC Sabathia written for Fangraphs as a basis for how to value starters.
Basically you want to find out how many innings and at what quality the starter will pitch in the upcoming season. You then compare those to a replacement level starter and make up the difference in innings by looking at a replacement level reliever. From Dave’s article:
So let’s look at Felix, using the average of his Marcel and Bill James Projections for 2009:
Felix: 192 IP * 3.69 FIP /9 = 78.72 Runs Allowed
Rep SP: 160 IP * 5.50 FIP /9 = 97.78 Runs Allowed
Rep RP: 32 IP * 4.50 FIP /0 = 16.00 Runs Allowed
Total Replacement Level: 113.78 Runs Allowed
Felix Runs Saved versus Replacement Level = 35.06
Felix WAR = 3.5
The problem I have is that I’m not sure how to value Bedard – who will pitch less than 160 IP or guys like Morrow or Heilman who’s FIPs are largely dependent on their performance as relievers. If you assume Bedard just replaces an amount of innings and that a Replacement Level SP will make up the slack, then it’s pretty easy:
Bedard: 104 IP * 3.695 FIP /9 = 42.70 Runs Allowed
Rep SP: 104 IP * 5.500 FIP /9 = 63.56 Runs Allowed
So Bedard, if he makes about 16-20 starts is worth 20.86 Runs or a WAR of about 2. If he’s healthy all season, then you probably adjust that up to a full 160 IP and he’s worth about 3 wins.
Dave, any insight on this?
Dave, what do you think of Mark Lowe’s chances of returning to form? You labeled him as “mop up”. That does not sound very promising.
And I think that if BB did not make the horrible Bedard trade, he (BB) would still be here and that is more horrible. I would have given anything to get rid of BB even AJ and Tillman, not Felix.
seems to me like current GMZ plans resemble:
phase 1 – improve team defense
phase 2 – after 4 months of phase 1. use improved pitcher stats to get max value in trade for certain parts, to improve hitting/pitching.
even if max value = paying half of an albatross contract instead of eating all of it, that’s an improvement, right?
seems to me, anyway.
JoeintheClutch asked about win values for this pitching staff, so I figured I might take a stab at it. And I’ll hope for critique of my methodology.
Assume the following numbers of innings:
Felix: 200
Bedard: 100
Morrow: 150
Silva: 150
Washburn: 150
I took the projected FIPs from Fangraphs, and eyeballed an average between the Marcel and Bill James projections:
Felix: 3.7
Bedard: 3.7
Morrow: 4.2
Silva: 4.6
Washburn: 4.7
I assumed a league-average FIP of 4.5. I then used the difference in FIP vs. the league average to calculate an expected number of runs above average for each player. I also assumed a replacement adjustment of +1/10 IP. That gives:
Felix: +18 RAA, +20 replacement, WAR of +3.8
Bedard: +9 RAA, +10 replacement, WAR of +1.9
Morrow: +5 RAA, +15 replacement, WAR of +2.0
Silva: -2 RAA, +15 replacement, WAR of +1.3
Washburn: -3 RAA, +15 replacement, WAR of +1.2
That’s +10 WAR from the starters. I dunno about the bullpen- it’s a lot harder to figure out the replacement level values and such. If you assume they’re an average-ish bullpen, then I’d guess they’re collectively a +4 WAR.
With that, and the +16.5 that Dave calculated for the position players, and you’re looking at ~+30 WAR for the team. Assume a replacement level team wins fifty games, and this is a league-average squad.
That doesn’t pass my smell test. I don’t think this collection of talent is league-average. What am I doing wrong?
So when do Silva and Batista meet the definition of sunk cost and you just let them go and eat the remaining money on their contracts? Does their value have to equal that of a replacement player or do you simply just have to have players in your organization that are better than they are?
I actually have more hope that Batista is moderately effective in a relief role, than I have hope that Silva is effective in any role. Even with radically improved outfield defense, he’s just not a good pitcher. How much rope do you think he has this season (forget about the next 2) before he’s DFA?
Batista will probably be decent in a relief role.
However, his career could very well be, for all intents and purposes, over.
If fans don’t have personal relationships with players, then fans should draw conclusions about players as if they do.
Just because the media don’t like Bedard is no reason why you can’t. They don’t get to decide for you whom you like or dislike.
Nate got me thinking…
Would it be possible for the M’s to platoon defenses depending on the pitching? So if Washburn, RRS, Morrow, Bedard, or other fly ballers are pitching run out Ichiro/Gutierrez/Chavez for the best OF defense this side of 2001. On the flip side, if you have Silva, Felix, Batista, or other ground ballers starting, run out the best infield defense possible.
What would those platoons look like and would it make sense for the team to do something like that?
Evan: Just because the media don’t like Bedard is no reason why you can’t. They don’t get to decide for you whom you like or dislike.
I didn’t mean to imply that we should all follow the media like thoughtless drones. What I simply meant is the media (including guys like Niehaus; they’re media too) play a major role in how we form our opinions (about many things in life; not just sports). That’s all I meant. I’m a Bobby Ayala fan for crying out loud! lol
I get the feeling that the 2009 rotation will look more like last year’s edition. Zduriencik has a lot less wiggle room with the pitching staff then he has with the rest of the team. I just hope with the moves he’s made, the rest of the team can carry the pitching staff to make them palatable or even tradable. Unlike many people, I don’t expect all the moves to be complete by the start of the season. Fixing a roof with this many leaks will take some time. Things I am hoping for are:
1: The new defensive-minded outfield will vastly improve Silvia, Washburn, Batista, and company numbers’ enough to attract a decent deal before the deadline.
2: Washburn, if he is staying, doesn’t cause another international incident in the locker room.
3: Bedard bounces back enough to at least field a few tempting offers at the deadline.
I like what Zduriencik has done so far. Hopefully by this time next year, we will have a better rotation behind King Felix.
And I’m saying they shouldn’t. We should struggle against that.
Just wanted to comment on the possibility of a mid-season Bedard trade and what we can expect in return. In my view, thinking that we’ll get a major league player back is crazy. First of all, how often does that happen in mid-season trades? Answer: not often, and it certainly isn’t likely in this case if Bedard isn’t pitching at his absolute best.
No, I think what you’re looking for is something like Dave’s estimate of a couple B- prospects. Where you could wind up doing better than expected is if Z-Man and his scouting staff are a little smarter than their counterparts in evaluating minor league talent and those guys that everyone thinks are mid-level talents actually develop into quite a bit more than that.
b.) Batista. I think Batista is just done. I don’t think he can close, I don’t think he can setup, I think he’d struggle in middle relief. I might be wrong, but he’ll be 38 and his xFIP and BB/9 have been steadily climbing for three years. He might not have anything in the tank.
As far as Morrow and Heilman, can we stick both in the rotation? Shove Silva into the pen as the league’s most overpaid swingman. If Heilman can’t develop the slider, or if someone gets hurt, then Silva goes into the rotation. I guess we still need a closer (hey, Silva!). Or would sticking him in the pen be too damaging to whatever hopes we might have of trading him?
What I completely expect is that Bedard will pitch like as much of a beast as what he can- this is his one shot at a big-money, set-for-life deal, and I’m positive he saw what guys like A.J. Burnett are getting, lengthy medic-sheet be damned.
This next sentence might well get me laughed at: but I think Carlos Silva will have a much better year in 2009. Like, 13-win good. As everybody knows, some poundage needs to drop first for that to happen- but I think he will. He’s a proud, emotional guy, and I think last year embarrassed him personally (as well it should have).
And after 2008, maybe karmically (if one believes in that) we’re due to have the good fortune of having two of our bigger albatrosses become assets we can trade away for better market value.
Don’t want the moon, just some more useful pieces.
Heilman is the guy who I have to flip a coin on: but like many of you, I ultimately don’t believe him to be good enough to be a 170+ IP starter, with good results. I think, however, he’s got a shot to be a much better-than-average closer. His attitude, I think, will actually determine a lot on next year’s team.
Not a bad prediction, but wins aren’t a good indicator of a pitcher’s performance. Also, Silva has shown his proud, emotional nature by complaining about other players and threatening to beat up his teammates.
This next sentence might well get me laughed at: but I think Carlos Silva will have a much better year in 2009. Like, 13-win good.
You were probably right on the mark until you described pitcher goodness with # of wins.
Why don’t we just give Batista the boot? Do we really think he’s one of our 12 best ML ready pitchers? He walked more than he struck out last year, and at 37, he’s unlikely to even repeat last year.
Also, if we think both Heilman and Morrow will be better for the team in the rotation than Washburn or Silva, we should not hesitate to relegate both Washburn and Silva to the bullpen.
IMHO, wins can be an indicator of pitching-goodness- they just shouldn’t be the sole indicator. I don’t confuse Silva winning 13 with necessarily being good- if he goes 13-13 or some other median number, that isn’t as beneficial to the Mariners.
Heck, Batista won 16 in 2007, and I knew that was a mirage. Probably every other way to determine a ball-player’s worth said so- ERA (which I both disregard and notice brings out the cannons from some) and WHIP.
I would’ve used a far more sabermetric example of such than those in describing what I think will happen with Silva, but my knowledge of SABR stinks and I’m just now trying to get to speed on it. So, I used what I knew.
Wins are a terrible, terrible indicator of pitcher effectiveness.
I think Carlos Silva is a decent bet to bounce back in 2009. However, it’s a good idea to avoid using wins to determine this whenever possible. After all, Horacio Ramirez (2007) spent over half the season being undefeated in home games and finished the season with a winning record.
For one thing, Silva’s BABIP was at .347 last season, highest of his career. FIP didn’t drop that much from his previous season with the Twins.
And now with some much needed focus on defense if anyone stands a chance to gain from it it’s Carlos Silva.
I think Carlos Silva stands a good chance to be more effective than last year (whether you measure effectiveness in xFIP, ERA, Wins, or favorable references on BBTN), but I wonder if he’s worth derailing either Morrow or Heilman in order to realize his +1.75 wins potential.
There’s very little chance that Bedard ends up as a Type A free agent next year. It goes off of your last two years, and Bedard’s 2007 was just not that impressive.
When assessing Aaron Heilman’s trade value, let’s not forget that he’s probably a current Type A player despite the disappointing numbers he posted in 2008.
Heilman won’t be a free agent until after the 2010 season when his Elias ranking will be based only on his 2009 and 2010 statistics. Still, if Heilman can again establish the Type A status, he should be worth at least two top draft picks (if not much more) in a trade.
Colorado reportedly expressed interest in Heilman as a starter, but was unwilling to send Huston Street to the Mets in exchange. Street could fill Seattle’s closer vacancy, but the price would likely be too high in terms of players and salary (Street, who is arbitration eligible, earned $3.3 million in 2008).
Instead, Seattle could target Colorado’s low-level, high-ceiling prospects, including promising 20-year-old shortstop Hector Gomez, who suffered a season-ending injury on Opening Day 2008. Other options include Rockie bullpen prospects from the Single A Asheville Tourists: Joey Williamson, Edgmer Escalona, Craig Baker and Matthew Reynolds (the latter was a college teammate of Mariner closer prospect Shawn Kelley).
JMHawkins- if it’s a case of either Silva or Morrow and you have to choose between ‘em, to me it’s no contest. You stick Morrow in and live with the jokes of having a $12-million-dollar-swingman.
I really can’t help but agree with most of Dave’s idea of the pitching staff, though.
The only thing I differ on is that I think it’ll be Feierabend in the lefty-long man role, not Jimenez.
IMHO, wins is an indicator of pitching-goodness–like an unsharpened rock can be a cutting instruments. Beats a pound of jello….but doesn’t compare to a scalpel.
What about Bedard as closer? I don’t know if he can pitch often enough, but it would cut his workload if he can, and maybe keep him healthy. He’s certainly got the stuff if he can stay healthy and be resilient enough.
Crazy talk.
Silva is bound for an ENORMOUS rebound. He was abysmally unlucky with his LOB% and BABIP, which were 61.1% and .347 respectively, which are sure to regress significantly. His FIP was 4.62 (career average is 4.53) and he actually posted his highest K/9 since 2003 with a 4.05, though his BB/9 (probably not coincidentally) was also the highest it’s been since 2003. Now I don’t really want to do the math right now (and I’d probably mess it up big-time), but if you regress his BABIP from .347 to a more reasonable number (.310-.320 range?) and I imagine those K/9 and BB/9 fall back to his averages with Minnesota (3.5 and 1.5, roughly) as balls in play are turned into outs at a higher rate. With better luck and a better defense, he could only be a mildly below average starter – he’s a fine #4 or #5 SP, just overpaid.
Unfortunately for Silva (and us and GMZ), he doesn’t look to benefit from the zippy new outfield as much as the others, being an extreme groundball pitcher – his highest FB% EVER is 34.2% from 2006, with career LD/GB/FB percentages of 20.2/48/31.8. Compare with Washburn who has a career 16.9/37.1/46 line. Batista’s career numbers are similar to Silva’s but trending more towards Washburn’s in the last couple years.
I doubt GMZ is trying to move Silva this year. Even at the halfway point there’ll still be alot left on that contract, and it’ll take more than a decent start to ’09 to make people forget about his ’08. Also, due to his GB tendancies and GMZ’s recent outfield defensive revamp (presumably to raise Wash/Batista value), we might be able to get an idea as to when GMZ’s looking to finally get rid of Silva by when he acquires a slick-fielding SS who gets the start when Silva takes the hill. And unfortunately, Silva spending significant time in the bullpen WILL likely hurt his trade stock in the future.
I’m just hoping there’s a Heilman (+ others maybe) for a decent defensive minded SS prospect who can contribute to the ML club in a season or two, or Heilman accepts the closer job. Then you have Felix/Bedard/Morrow/Silva/Washburn rotation with Batista and RRS in the pen – with RRS set to take over if someone gets injured or if midway through the season Washburn’s stinking it up and not helping his trade stock.
Any news on a Felix extension? I’d guess he’s a type A at the moment(?)
Bedard as a closer would be a horrible idea. We don’t know if he can pitch consistently, and if he can’t this could mean losing us a handful of games early in the season. Furthermore, he did not do that bad out of the starting role last year, just had some injury problems, which he has had his whole life, they weren’t due to a huge workload. This move would also piss off fans more than the trade already has, because you can always find a viable guy to fill in the closer spot, you can’t find many who can start and post a similar ERA to Bedard’s, even his of last year. So the idea of trading Tillman and Adam Jones for a closer, who we don’t know if he can even close, and who has an absurd contract, would cause many fans to state unhappy opinions.
I believe we’re still a few years away from Felix hitting free agency.
[off-topic]
Any news on a Felix extension? I’d guess he’s a type A at the moment(?)
He is indeed a Type A this offseason, but he’s three years away from free agency, perhaps longer if the team can buy out a year or two of free agency with an extension. Please happen.
So the idea of trading Tillman and Adam Jones for a closer, who we don’t know if he can even close, and who has an absurd contract, would cause many fans to state unhappy opinions.
Not to take too much away from your overall point, but Bedard doesn’t have “an absurd contract.” He gets a raise every year in arbitration, but if he weren’t worth it, the team could just non-tender him and wouldn’t owe him a dime. Of all the pitchers on this team and others who are signed to bad contracts, Bedard’s not one of them. Bedard doesn’t even technically have a contract right now.
What about Felix as closer?
We don’t know if he can pitch consistently, and if he can’t this could mean losing us a handful of games early in the season.
So if he can’t pitch consistently, how is he going to be any more useful as a starter than as a reliever?
This doesn’t mean using Bedard as a reliever is a good idea, because it isn’t- I’m not convinced that workload of starter > workload of closer doing things like pitching 2-3 days in a row, having to warm up multiple times in a game, for one thing, and Bedard is a successful starter when healthy… but if Bedard is going to flop as a starter because of health issues, he’s not likely to be more useful as a reliever.
What about Felix as closer?
What about Ichiro as closer? He supposedly can get it up to 93…
I was actually wondering about Washburn as a closer. That would keep RRS and Morrow both in the rotation, you make Heilmann the long man with the promise of the first slot in the rotation if he plays nice (and I figure May 1 as the date Silva goes on the DL for obesity training).
I’d be interested to see how well wins correlates with tRA, and then compare that to how handedness, or height, or latitude of birth correlates with tRA.
I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one of those beats wins.
Does Silva really need training to learn how to be obese?
How much do we think we will see our pitchers improve, just by the improved defense?
Yeah. The biggest loser has to go on Biggest Loser.
The guys will be able to answer this with more specifics, but if you want some idea of what drastically improving your defense can do for you, look no further than the ’08 Rays.
Soooo, with the Braves inking Furcal to a new deal and still looking for rotation help, is there anyway we make a move for Yunel Escobar?
And yet HoRam is curiously still avaiable to Atlanta.
I was thinking about this prospect last night. Maybe a package of Bedard and Yuni/Lopez for Escobar and a couple of high-B prospects or some high-risk/high-reward lower minors types. I just can’t see the Braves going for that though.
Not anymore…KC signed Horacio a day or two ago.
Aaron M.
Pitching consistently from the starting role and the closer role are two different things. And lets stop the crap about moving everyone to closer. FELIX?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! THAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE WORST DECISIONS OF THE 21 CENTURY AND BY FAR THE WORST MARINERS DECISION EVER! And Jarrod Washburn… The guy is a slow-throwing, contact pitcher, not exactly the guy you want closin out games…
The guy is a slow-throwing, contact pitcher, not exactly the guy you want closin out games…
Eddie Guardado wasn’t too bad if I’m not mistaken.
And why is everyone hating on Bedard, his injury wasn’t even as serious as they expected. Plus he wasn’t even that bad considering he was pitching hurt the whole year pretty much. It’s hard to pitch when you’re hurting I would know.
I’m about 99.99999% sure the “Felix as closer” post was sarcasm.
I would love to see Yunel sub in for Yuni. Escobar has got a higher ceiling by far than Betancourt. Yunel Escobar posted a .288 BA, .366 OBP, .401 Slugging, .766 OPS. He had 59 walks compared to Yuni’s whopping 17 walks. Yuni’s line was .279 BA, .300 OBP, .392 Slugging, .691 OPS
Not to mention Escobar had an awesome year with the glove in 2008. He was rated a +21 defensively according to Dewan’s +/- Fielding Bible, +10 defensively according to Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report and +12 defensively according to Lichtman’s UZR ranking him 6th among all MLB SS. Betancourt had a +/- of -19, -31 UZR, and a -14 PMR along with a -30 RZR making him dead last in the MLB among SS.
With Heilman, it’d be interesting to compare 2006/2007 pitching mechanics vs. 2008 mechanics. If he added that slider, perhaps he altered his motion (as suggested), which negatively impacted his 2008 numbers. Were he to simply abandon the slider and revert to his previous mechanics (wind-up, delivery, extension, arm angle, etc), perhaps he’d return to form. That could account for his fastball issues.
To start off, first post on the site, so I’ll try not to sound like an idiot.
The outfield defense has obviously been improved, and is probably the best defensive outfield in baseball. Assuming (a lot to do, I know) that Betancourt has learned how to throw the ball to the first baseman and not the fans sitting along the first base line, the infield defense should be solid, but not spectacular.
So far, we’ve seen that Z is a pretty no-nonsense guy, and hopefully Wakamatsu (sp?) is a reflection of the GM’s personality as well. Heilman should be in the bullpen, probably starting games. The rotation should be Felix, Bedard, Morrow, RRS, and Silva. Looking at the roster, if you’re trying to win games, that’s really the only rotation that makes sense. From what I’ve heard, Silva is working hard on not being a humongous fat ass this off-season. Maybe he won’t suck next year, but he’s a 5th starter anyway. 1-4 matches up pretty well with MOST teams in the AL. I don’t know what to do with Washburn, he’s not part of any long term plans and has little trade value at this point. Maybe the Braves will take him, they took Vasquez after all…
I was pretty surprised that Z didn’t make the move to get Mike Jacobs from the Marlins. I don’t remember them getting a ton in return for him, but he would have answered the questions at 1B.