That’s okay, I’m optimistic

Dave · December 17, 2008 at 9:15 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Building on Jason’s post below, I figured I might as well throw this out there – I couldn’t be any more thrilled with how the Mariners are being run right now than I currently am. I know, most Mariner fans see 2009 as a lost year with no hope of contention. They see Washburn and Silva and Batista and Bedard and Johjima and are reminded of just how badly this organization was run the last few years. They see a big payroll, a bad offense, and a pitching staff with a lot of questions.

Not me.

I see a roster full of hope. I see two brand new tremendous defensive outfielders and realize that we no longer have to beg the team to understand that running down balls in the gaps is just as valuable as hitting balls in the gaps. I see a $1.9 million first base platoon of undervalued players who could produce league average production while holding down the fort until a long term replacement can be found. I see a potential long term replacement in the 22-year-old with a .400 OBP that just got acquired. I see two other intriguing young talents being added to the farm system in Ezequiel Carrera and Mickael Cleto. I see the team filling the holes in the bullpen with buy-low, solid upside guys like Jason Vargas and Jose Lugo.

If people want to call it rebuilding, that’s fine. I’d say it’s more of an overhaul, though – a complete teardown of the old processes and in importation of new, better processes. Not everything Zduriencik and crew do is going to work, but there’s a mountain of evidence that shows that they understand how to build a good team, and that the moves they make will be built on solid logic.

I see a team that has moved away from ERA, RBIs, and chemistry, and is marching towards actual wins. Yes, Raul Ibanez and J.J. Putz are gone, and the local media will tell you that those guys are humongous losses to a roster of bad players. I will tell you that this team, right now, is better than the one that went to spring training in March. Franklin Gutierrez is a better player than Raul Ibanez. The M’s aren’t rebuilding by getting worse and hoping kids develop – they’re rebuilding by bringing in better players than the ones that were previously.

The Mariners are going the right way. They’re building for the future and the present at the same time, and they’re implementing processes that will lead to long term sustained success. I haven’t been as optimistic about this organization as I am now in… probably forever. Let the pessimists wail about the losses of guys they know, and watch as the Mariners win with guys they don’t.

Go Z. Go M’s.


202 Responses to “That’s okay, I’m optimistic”

  1. mydquinn on December 20th, 2008 2:30 am

    Just for fun, cherry pick the best 2007 or 2008 stats from the Ms roster. Yes, it is cherry picking and I used crude stats, but the whole point is to see what is possible. It’s not like I am dipping into ancient history for stats.

    Compare them to 2008 Tampa Bay! You can’t tell me this team does not have a shot.

    LF: Carl Crawford (.273, 8 HR, 18 net SBvs. Ken Griffey or other mid-level free agent LF (.275 BA, 20-25 HRs)
    CF: BJ Upton (.273, 9 HR, 28 net SB) vs. Franklin Gutierrez (.275 BA, 15 HRs, 15 net SBs projected)
    RF: Eric Hinske (.247, 20 HR) vs. Ichiro Suzuki (.351 BA, 39 net SBs)
    C: Dioner Navarro (.295, 7HR) vs. Kenji Johjima (.287 BA, 14 HRs)
    1B: Carlos Pena (.247, 31HR) vs. Russ Branyan/Shelton (.260 BA, 20-25 HRs projected)
    2B: Akinori Iwamura (.274, 6 HR) vs. Jose Lopez (.297 BA, 17 HRs)
    SS: Jason Bartlett (.286, 1 HR, 14 net SB) vs. Yuniesky Betancourt (.289 BA, 9 HRs)
    3B: Evan Longaria (.272, 27 HR) vs. Adrian Beltre (.276, 26 HRs, 12 net SBs)
    DH: Cliff Floyd (.268, 11 HR) vs. Jeff Clement/Morse (.280 BA, 15-20 HRs projected)

    1. Scott Kazmir (3.49 era) vs. Erik Bedard (3.18 era)
    2. James Shields (3.56 era) vs. Felix Hernandez (3.45 era)
    3. Matt Garza (3.70 era) vs. Rowland Smith (3.50 era as a starter)
    4. Andy Sonnanstine (4.38 era) vs. Carlos Silva (4.19 era)
    5. Edwin Jackson (4.42 era) vs. Miguel Batista (4.29 era)

    Other P:
    Percival (4.47 era) vs. Jarrod Washburn (4.32 era)
    Balfour (1.54 era) vs. Morrow (1.47 era as a RP)
    Howell (2.22 era) vs. Heilman (3.03 era)
    Wheeler (3.12 era) vs. Corcoran (3.32 era)

  2. ima-zeliever on December 20th, 2008 2:55 pm

    Dave/DMZ, will you guys refer to where I can read about properly valuing offense? From what I am seeing, it seems that Ichiro (dare I say…) is over-valued in what he brings offensively. Is that your opinion? Is there any chance that Z would trade him either now or at the deadline?

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