Well, this is different
“I look at Corcoran, and opposing hitters averaged .283 against him,” Wakamatsu said. “But he had a four-to-one ratio of ground balls (to fly balls). Did they find every hole?
“The fact is that we have to catch more ground balls. I want to bring these kinds of statistics to the coaches and players. It’s a way to get better. Maybe it just means we need to shade the middle more, or maybe we need to focus more on what specific hitters do against each of our specific pitchers.”
If you weren’t already convinced, this organization understands the value of defense now.
“We’re looking to see if there is a plus-plus defensive second baseman out there,” Wakamatsu said. “Then if we move Jose to first base, and he can defend there and make us above average on the right side, that would be good. That’s the whole focus — can we defend?
“Look at Tampa Bay. Look at what (shortstop Jason) Bartlett did for that team last year. They had some phenomenal players already, but sometimes it’s that one player in a key position that makes things work.”
Obviously, I love the fact that our new manager thinks like this. This is a huge step forward in analytical skills from the bench. That said, I don’t think I’m on board with Lopez as a first baseman. Let’s break it down.
If we assume that Lopez is below average at second base (UZR has him at average-ish the last three years, but trending worse), then we’d call him -5 at the position. If he moved to first base, he’d certainly be one of the better defensive 1B in the league (thanks to the fact that the comparison group is full of immobile stiffs), but would also have decreased opportunities. Let’s call him +5 at first base, though, since we’re running through Wakamatsu’s scenario here.
Now, the team wants a “plus plus defender” at second base if they’re going to move Lopez, so we have to assume that new guy would be +10 or so. Adam Kennedy would be a pretty good example of a +10 defensive second baseman, and he’s not exactly happy in St. Louis, so let’s just pretend the M’s could go trade for Kennedy to make this all happen.
With Kennedy at 2nd and Lopez at first, you’d have a +15 defensive right side of the infield. With Lopez at second and a Branyan/Shelton platoon at first, you’d have something like a -7 defensive right side of the infield (Branyan’s below average, Shelton’s above average, but Branyan will play more, so I call that platoon -2). So, the positive defensive result would be +22 runs. That’s a lot.
However, the M’s would be filling the last remaining spot in the line-up with Adam Kennedy. Remember when I projected the position players last week? I assumed the team would find a cheap, .340 wOBA DH. That guy would be out, replaced by Kennedy’s bat, and because the Branyan/Shelton duo would be DH’ing, there’d be less at-bats for Clement at DH, so we’d have to adjust his PA’s downward a bit.
The 1B/2B/DH spots are good for about 1850 plate appearances. Right now, I have those allocated as something like 600 for Lopez, 50 for Corona, 450 for Branyan, 200 for Shelton, 500 for random DH, and 100 for Clement. A weighted average offensive value for that group at those PA levels would be +6 runs. You replace Random DH with Kennedy and shift 50 of Clement’s at-bats to Kennedy, and the weighted average offensive value for the new group would be -11 runs.
If we assume that the M’s were going to get a generic, below average DH (Griffey, for instance), and that this strategy would result in them acquiring a top notch defensive second baseman, and that Lopez would adjust to first base without any problems, the overall net gain to the team would be something like 5 runs.
That’s not a big enough deal to justify upsetting Lopez, nuking his trade value as a second baseman, and giving up something to get a guy like Kennedy. I’ve been pushing this team to improve their defense for years, but clearly, it’s a balance – if the offensive trade-off is nearly as large as the defensive gain, then you’re not improving the roster (and vice versa).
And in this case, it creates some long term issues as well. Say Adam Moore or Rob Johnson develop and Clement shows he just can’t hack it behind the plate, so you want to move Clement to DH. Now you’re benching Branyan, because you’ve blocked off first base, and you’re taking one of the better bats on the roster out of the line-up. You’re also putting Lopez in Mike Carp’s way, and with the Luis Valbuena trade, the organization doesn’t really have a long term replacement at second base anymore.
I’m thrilled Wakamatsu recognizes that the defense was a problem, and that it really messed up the pitching staff the last few years. I love the fact that our manager is going after knowledge that could improve the club, even if it’s not conventional, by-the-book stuff. I love that he’s publicly quoting Roy Corcoran’s ground ball rate.
But, I don’t think I’m on board with Lopez as a first baseman. If the team wants to improve their infield defense, they should be looking to trade Lopez, not move him to first base.
I didn’t want to put this in the post, since it’s a rabbit trail, but while Wakamatsu’s point is correct, he used a pretty unfortunate example – Roy Corcoran’s BABIP last year was .278. Hitters hit .283 against him because he’s a pitch to contact guy who doesn’t strike anyone out. In reality, his true average against is probably even higher than that, since a .278 BABIP for a groundballer isn’t sustainable.
What’s the chance Wakamatsu et al identify Betancourt’s defensive shortcomings and either a) look to move him, or b) make him lose weight/focus on his range?
Put differently, do you think they are using advanced defensive metrics to evaluate ability (Betancourt’s a problem) or following conventional wisdom (Betancourt’s amazing)? How optimistic should we be?
You should be very optimistic.
I don’t even want my two front teeth-Christmas has come early…..
My theory on these comments is that Wakamatsu is lobbying for a Jerry Hairston signing.
I don’t think Lopez becomes the full-time first baseman, but I think he plays first against lefties and on days when the skipper wants his glove infield out there. Then he can bring Hairston in and plug him in at 2B or even SS, and he can assure Hairston regular plying time too, in a sort of a Mark McLemore role.
In that scenario, Hairston would be taking 200 ABs from Shelton, and a another 200 from YuBet, Endy, Wlad, and/or the DH. That would seem a little better than giving 450 ABs of random DH to Adam Kennedy. Maybe.
McLaren: Our defense is fine.
Dave: You need to focus more on defense. Defense is really important.
…
Wakamatsu: We need to do something about our defense.
Dave: But what about the offense?
…
I appreciate your argument, but, boy, are you hard to please!
Or, more accurately.
McLaren: Our team is good.
Dave: No, it’s not. Your team is bad. Your defense is atrocious, and the offense doesn’t compensate for it.
Wakamatsu: We want to improve the defense.
Dave: Awesome
Wakamatsu: By making this lateral move that hurts the offense equally and limits the team’s future options.
Dave: There’s a better way.
Wakamatsu’s comment on Lopez can also be interpreted as making an effort to not throw him under the bus. Saying ‘we need a better defensive second baseman’ without providing a role for Lopez would be.. rude. They might actually be looking at trades, for example.
Of the two, Yuni should be the one we are more worried about because SS defense is more important than 2B and Jose’s offense is better than Yuni’s….
I agree that they shouldn’t move Lopez to 1B…I’d rather they trade them both…
But I LOOOOOVE the fact that these guys get it…
The future is looking real good…
I never thought either Z or Wakamatsu would do everything exactly how we thought they would. The fact that we don’t hear words like “Veteran clubhouse presence”, “proven run producer”, and “fill that role” are already positive. Also, Wakamatsu is not going to say “we should trade Jose Lopez” too loud where people can hear him.
These guys are also going to make moves that we will question. Some of those will be based on things we don’t realize, and some of those will work, some won’t. Other moves will be clear mistakes, and some of those will work, some won’t.
Then again, there will be some home run moves too, so I’m not worried. Both Z and Wakamatsu have shown good process and understanding of how to put together a winning team. We can’t criticize Wakamatsu too much for not calling Lopez out. If we find a better 2B, I suspect Z will be calling every GM he can think that needs a 2B too see what they got.
I’m hoping this indicates a heightened interest in extending Beltre. How could they possibly replace his defense?
I wonder if we could bring in an Alex Cora on the cheap? He leaves something to be desired offensively (~.300 projected wOBA according to Marcel/James) but he’s +8.7 over his last 151 games at SS and +11.5 over the last 4 years at 2B. Also, ESPN has Jon Herrera as a FA from the Rockies. He’s a plus defender at second, has some speed, and has been a ~10% BB rate guy in the minors. At 24 years old, maybe he’s a guy we could sign to a minor league contract?
We really need to find a team in love with Jose Lopez.
Something tells me that man crush just isn’t out there.
There are still a few options out there to play a good defensive second base if they can trade Lopez…Hudson anyone? He’s been hurt, but plays great D, is a switch hitter, and could hit #2 behind ICHIRO!…
Trade Yuni and Lopez and sign Hairston for SS and Hudson for 2B…
The power would drop a little, but the defense would be dramatically improved and the on-base from getting rid of Yuni would improve too…
UZR isn’t a big fan of the O-Dog. Below average the last 3 years including a -9.1 in 105 games last year. The splits in his UZR/150 between his Toronto days and his Arizona days are pretty dramatic. I haven’t investigated the cause yet. The infield at Chase Field is fast, but probably not as fast as that of Rogers Centre. I haven’t looked at his PMR numbers or anything else yet. His offense would be a nice improvement assuming his wrist is in good shape.
Reading those quotes was thrilling. I am very, very pleased that not only does Wakamatsu value defense, but he apparently values statistics that go beyond RBI, ERA, and W/L. It’s like having our own Manny Acta.
While I agree with you that there are better ways to improve our defense than by moving Lopez to first, doesn’t moving Jose also raise a different problem? Namely, that we just signed two first basemen. Moving them to DH after they signed under the pretense that they would get to play in the infield seems like a good way to raise bad blood between the Mariners and free agents.
Isn’t it possible that they are saying they are considering moving Lopez to first base to avoid devaluing him in public?
How much do the UZR numbers of players tend to fluctuate based on the groundball/flyball tendencies of their staff?
Given how good Beltre is and the…. spirited discussion over at FanGraphs regarding height, would there be any benefit to playing Beltre at either SS or 2B? At those positions, given the adjustment for position, he would be a premier SS or 2B offensively and very good defensively. Or does he not cover enough ground?
Well, someone paid $31 million and a couple very nice draft choices for Raul. Lopez’ top line offensive numbers (HR/RBI/AVG) look at least as attractive within the second base pool as Raul’s did among outfielders. Keep the faith.
I get the feeling that if the M’s were to consider trading Lopez more than one team would bite.
I’m sure Z is listening to offers on Lopez…
I would love to argue on your post, but I would be arguing for the sake of arguing. The deck is already stacked. Excellent post!
This is just so…strange! Have I entered into Bizzaro M’s World? What happened to finding players with grit, clubhouse leaders, and proven veterans? Pitchers that have a 3.90 ERA and hitters that have a .290 average? Where’s the call to re-sign Bloomquist to a long-term deal to be our 25th man?
I think I like the Bizzaro Mariners! Maybe we’ll get a Bizzaro Mariners W-L record come September!
Could this mean that they already have identified who they want at 2B? Kennedy is a good guess. Publicly suggesting they will move Lopez to 1B seems like either a mistake that devalued him on the trade market or purposeful in getting some other teams attention who may think differently about defense.
Lopez has some deficiencies….. we should all remind ourselves that he is still young (only just in November he turned 25) he had a pretty good year with the bat in 08 and that should still improve over the next couple of years. Can his D improve? If it can then he is a great guy to have on the team! Although his trade value would certainly be good right now but I would rather see Yuni go than Lopez.
If he is seriously going to move him to 1B then he would end up being an above average 1B. He could also still be traded as a 2B at any stage during the year. This move also gives time to get Carp ready and also Branyan can share duties at DH and is used to benching too. Or is Lopez just going to be the guy that plays 1B when Branyan doesn’t. Either way some great options and very teasing comments by Wakamatsu.
I don’t mind trading him as long as it is a net gain for the M’s. But it would be a shame to see him prosper elsewhere after us enduring all of his growing pains.
The comments by WSM I think is a great practical take on the situation……….
don’t think Lopez becomes the full-time first baseman, but I think he plays first against lefties and on days when the skipper wants his glove infield out there. Then he can bring Hairston in and plug him in at 2B or even SS, and he can assure Hairston regular plying time too, in a sort of a Mark McLemore role.
In that scenario, Hairston would be taking 200 ABs from Shelton, and a another 200 from YuBet, Endy, Wlad, and/or the DH.
Although how good is Hairston’s defence?
Finally the other simple thing Don may be doing is just warning players step up or we will do what is best for the team which may not necessarily be what you want.
I have to admit I am a new poster here and historically I have been all about offence numbers and am now really enjoying learning about the importance of both needing to be balanced or at least considered in all personal decision making. I don’t yet understand all the SABR stuff or when you talk about a player being 5 + etc, is there a place I can learn more to help me understand about this?
And yeah those types of comments make it more likely they try to extend Beltre before trading him. At 29 years old how long would you extend him for? Boras would want some ridiculous term and price, but maybe we could get 3 years which would be very nice – but highly unlikely. I would say we end up with draft picks or a trade mid season of Beltre – sorry a little off topic.
At folks who say we just signed two first baseman: Both are cheap (so is Lopez by the way), and one is for a minor league contract: Chris Shelton. So, I’m not worried about Shelton’s AB. Considering his contract he could get 0. I like Morse at first base. He should be above average defensively at first, is cheap, and has consistently batted for average at the major league level. He is also 6′5″ with a powerful structure, so you might not give up anything offensively. We just haven’t got to see what Morse can do.
Two sort of off topic questions. Would Yuni have value at 2nd? What do people think of Freddy Guzman at AAA Tacoma? Dude has stolen 326 bases in 5 years in the minors. Baseballcube gives him 99 speed. It seems to me we could bring him up and trade off Endy Chavez. With half a brain a guy that fast should be able to provide excellent defense in left, and his basestealing and baserunning are tools that would be very valuable in our low power offense.
As some have already said… trading Lopie and signing Orlando Hudson would be an interesting move, although it doesn’t seem like the M’s are interested in any new long-term commitments at the moment.
I would think rather than moving Lopez to 1B, that moving him to 3B, if Beltre is traded or doesn’t resign, would be the better option.
This would not block Carp’s development and still leave the Branyan/Shelton combo to man 1B until Carp is ready and give AB’s to Clement at DH.
Dave and Derek, any inside knowledge as to whether Beltre would sign an extension? My first preference would be for the M’s to lock Beltre up but if he won’t sign an extension, maybe trading Beltre to fill a hole elsewhere would make sense and then the M’s can move Lopez to 3B.
Jose Lopez is the impatient twin of Ron Belliard, and teams have been trying to unload Belliard for the last 10 years with zero success (Hector Luna does not count). Unless Lopez goes bonkers this season, 2009 could be Seattle’s last chance to trade him for something significant. Years/dollars remaining on his contract:
09:$1.6M
10:$2.3M
11: $4.5M club option ($0.25M buyout)
To an old-school GM trying to spark his offense on a budget, Lopez is a durable and perhaps even versatile 25-year old middle infielder carrying a 3-yr average of .278 AVG, 77 RBI. At $4 mil for two seasons and a buyout, that might be tempting. Package a young player like Lopez with Heilman or a momentarily healthy Bedard, and who knows what you might get in return.
Kennedy would work nicely at 2B, he may even add some veteran leadership, and he wants to be traded. He said so in September. However, he’s due to make $4M next year. That’s an awful lot to take on for a glove at 2B. He’s not a pathetic hitter. Just pretty average.
A fit might be to trade Adrian Beltre to the Cardinals. Kennedy’s salary could help to offset Beltre’s. Other players from both sides can be included, of course.
Then move Lopez to 3B where he’s likely to be much happier, and capable. He’s sure hitting nicely in Winter Ball, isn’t he? An OPS of 1.000. I know it’s Winter Ball, but still
If the team can find an upgrade for Yuni, I think that is a much more pressing concern. This talk about upgrading the defense at 2nd is a valid concern, I love Jose but he’s about average or slightly below at 2nd. But how do you call him out when Yuni is terrible at SS?
I would much rather the team find an upgrade there (and it’s not like you will find much of a worse bat than Yuni anyway). Taking a flier on a good glove SS/2B type would be an interesting proposition. Juan Uribe anyone? Over the last 3 years, his UZR/150 is 2.9 at SS, 8.0 at 2B (only 362.1 innings), and -7.9 at 3B (460.1 innings).
How many middle infielders do most teams carry? Does it make sense for the M’s to pick up a fourth 2B/SS/3B infielder while carrying Lopez, Yuni, and Corona on the 25 man roster? 4 Middle, Infielders, 4 OF, 3 Catchers, and 3 Corner Infielders? That would leave an 11 man pitching staff. If Rob Johnson started the season in AAA, then the M’s could carry just 2 Catchers to start the season.
I just hate the thought of giving up on Lopez. I would love the team to start the season with him on the team and see where it goes from there. I will argue to the end that his 2nd half of 2007 is an outlier and should be removed from the sample when trying to project him into the future.
If Yuni isn’t back in shape, he need to not be playing SS. I don’t want part of this season to hinge on “Yuni will get back in shape working out with Raul” like last season in part depended on “Sexson will bounce back.”
I agree on Lopez, I think trading him might be a mistake. Lopez reminds me of Carlos Guillen in that if we trade him, we may really regret it. His contract is very cheap and he is locked up for a few years. Why not give him at least this year to show what he can do?
Last year Lopez really showed some power potential and he is still only 25.
I do agree that 2B is not a great position for him which is why I think 3B may be the longer-term answer.
Lance, you might get killed for talking about “veteran leadership”…
Just warning ya…
I have advocated this move since even before Riggs finally pulled the trigger last season. There are many reasons why, but here are the major ones:
1. Lopez can hit both lefties and righties. Why platoon Branyan as a 1B when he can’t hit lefties at all and he is a sub-par defensive player? let him platoon at DH and put in a full-time 1B in Lopez.
2. He played fantastic defense in his limited stint at 1B last year and showed that while he has inadequate range for 2B he has fantastic range for a 1B. This can be a major asset.
3. His overall power numbers last year were relatively low, but look how well he did as a #5 hitter and how well he did hitting as a 1B. He had a .487 slugging % after the break last year and a .529 slugging specifically in September- when he was playing 1B much of the time. Get him out of the #2 hole and off of 2B and watch him blossom this year.
His OBP is obviously poor relative to his peers, but that is true whether he plays 2B or 1B.
His power is developing, he can play 1B at a high level, and he can keep Branyan where he belongs- as part of a DH platoon. There are reasons why Branyan has only 2000 ABs in 11 seasons, and they are not just because the management was ignorant in each case…
Lopez will not be a 2B for much longer, so why not make this move and show him that being a 1B is not a “demotion”- it is a move intended to help him maximize his talents.
Kennedy was very good as a defensive 2B last year, but he was mediocre in 2006 and 2007- not a great sign when combined with his weak hitting abilities.
Hairston Jr started more games at positions other than 2B last year than he did at 2B and hasn’t started 100 games as a 2B since 2001…why would he be considered worthy of starting there now?
Sign Aaron Miles for 2 years and maybe $3MM total. He just turned 32, is good for a ~.700 OPS, about 60 to 70 runs scored as a full-time starter, can hit both lefties and righties, he is a league average 2B on defense and he can start some games at SS if/when the M’s finally decide to send a message to Yuni and bench him when he slacks off.
Miles can hold the fort until Triunfel is ready to make the jump. My guess is that Triunfel will be a 2B when he hits the majors- that looks like the best long-term fit for his skill set to me.
I’d rather they dump both for defense, but if only one had to go, Yuni should be the priority to get rid of…for whatever we can get..
Kennedy, as of now, is the Cardinals starting secondbaseman. I doubt his trade demand still stands.
The Cardinals probably don’t trade him unless they are trying to clear salary space for a pitcher.
I think Rob Johnson is our best catcher on the roster from a defensive perspective, but he will never have the left hand power potential of Clement, and Johjima’s bloated contract makes it so that you have to play Joh. I think Rob Johnson starts the year in AAA.
I only hope that Joh has finally learned to call a game. He has made pitchers worse with his bad calling.
A curious idea to be sure. We should keep this in mind, though:
I think it’s good that we have a manager/staff that’s going to explore as many avenues of roster construction as possible as opposed to the old ways of shoehorning players in certain spots and keeping players at positions because “that’s what they are.”
I’d be more willing to go with Lopez at 1B if we didn’t already pick up several candidates that could do the job. I’d like to think that this route is just in case they find a quality defender for 2B and not that they’re trying to find an upgrade for 2B (since we already traded possible candidate Luis Valbuena). Oh yea, and there’s that whole Lopez wanting to play 2B thing.
But yea, I’m still hoping we can trade Lopez and Betancourt. It is wonderful that we have a manager that wants to improve the pitching staff through defense. Hopefully, not at the expense of offense but there’s still plenty of time.
I actually am not ready to give up on either Yuni or Jose. I mean, sure if we could’ve signed Furcal, absolutely. But I think both are close to their lows in trade value at this point and better than the options available in the system. With how young and relatively cheap they both are, I’d like to see the new coaching program work very hard on both of them. I have to think the previous coaching focus has been on bulking up and hitting.
Both were at least average in the past, so maybe we should hope they learn it back.
It’s at least worth a shot… Remember:
“Yuniesky Betancourt is the Rolls Royce of defensive shortstops. You’ve seen the rest; now watch the best.” -Dave Cameron Link
Dave,
Is there any reason to think that better defense will have a positive effect in the teams ability to unload Washburn, Silva and/or Batista? If so, then a defense first approach could pay dividends in coming years.
dchappelle, that is true that it could be worth a shot but keep in mind that 2005 was quite a while go now in the world of sports…
Yuni might have been a Rolls Royce on defense then, but right now he looks more like a used Hyundai out there. He can get you from point A to point B, but it’s a bumpy ride along the way.
He is a poor defensive player, he has no plate discipline and his lack of footspeed on the bases is astonishing to me.
A way to get better at defense…
Juan Uribe
‘09 James – .306 wOBA
‘09 Marcel – .299 wOBA
‘05 SS: 9.1 UZR/150 in 1293.1 innings
‘06 SS: 8.1 UZR/150 in 1130.0 innings
‘07 SS: -1.9 UZR/150 in 1305.1 innings
Career 2B: 10.3 in 1077 innings
Career 2B: -4.2 in 641.2 innings
Yuni
‘09 James – .308 wOBA
‘09 Marcel – .313 wOBA
‘05 SS: -0.4 UZR/150 in 454 innings
‘06 SS: -0.5 UZR/150 in 1374.1 innings
‘07 SS: -4.3 UZR/150 in 1302.1 innings
‘08 SS: -14.7 UZR/150 in 1325.1 innings
Jose Lopez:
‘09 James – .323 wOBA
‘09 Marcel – .317 wOBA
If you agree (which Dave does not) that his 2nd half of 2007 was an outlyer caused by a death in the family, then I think his wOBA projection for this year would be closer to .340. His average wOBA improvement per year has been .0145. His wOBA last year was .328. Just look at the middle of his 2007 wOBA graph (bottom left on my screen)… tell me that’s not an outlyer coinciding exactly as it does with the death.
‘04 SS: 1.8 UZR/150 in 490 innings (higher than any Yuni has ever put up)
‘05 2B: 3.3 UZR/150 in 439 innings
‘06 2B: 3.5 UZR/150 in 1322 innings
‘07 2B: 1.0 UZR/150 in 1231.1 innings
‘08 2B: -3.3 UZR/150 in 1229.1 innings
‘08 1B: 19.6 UZR/150 in 100 innings
Which of these 3 would you want playing every day? I would argue that Uribe at SS and Lopez at 2B would be your best line-up both offensively and defensively. On days the other team is starting a LH, you could always go with Lopez at 1B, Uribe at SS, and – depending on his abilities – Corona at 2B.
Yuni would then either get traded or be the team’s back-up SS/2B.
Do the Mariners gain anything by having Branyan over Sexson’s average year as a Mariner?
Yes, a boatload of cash that can be used on other players along with better than the worst in the league defense.
niterunner- they lose 14mil in salary and get a left handed bat that fits safeco better. If the avg that you refer to is batting avg, I would concern yourself with it. There are lots a better ways to measure a players offensive output.
Average year offensively and defensively, not batting average. Of course the salary, but I was looking for other measures.
Branyan is a hell of a lot better defensively than Sexson
Seriously, this whole “Lopez is okay at defense but Yuni is horrible” thing has to stop. Lopez is worse defensively than Betancourt. Worse, not better. Worse.
Betancourt appears worse by UZR because of who he’s being compared to. If you swapped Betancourt and Lopez, you would all think Lopez was a disaster and Betancourt was just fine.
Dave,
I want them both gone….
I think what most people are basically saying regarding upgrading the SS Defense is that, based on the personnel in place right now defense at shortstop is a bigger problem for this team than defense at 2nd. That is we do have some people on the team that can at least play second base adequately – but barring Yuni losing 25lbs in the offseason and returning the “Rolls Royce” form, we do not have anyone ready to play everyday who can claim “adequate” label at SS.
People would rather see the team talking about looking for a “plus plus” shortstop. Of course, since shortstop quality defenders are harder to find than 2nd basemen (who, as you demonstrated over at fangraphs, are essentially drawn from a pool of failed SSs) everyone is in that same boat, fishing in more or less the same pond.
Of course, we also shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that any discussion along these lines is amazingly encouraging!!
Dave – just curious, but how do you arrive at +5 for Lopez at 1st? You have him at -5 at second base, where he would have far more fielding opportunities, but a +5 at first.
Conservatively, it seems like he might be closer to a push (0) at first base, which actually strengthens your assessment of improvement via trading Lopez vs. moving him to first.
Just trying to understand the basis for value assignment.
Can someone point me to research on a typical player’s career arc as far as defensive ability goes? That seems like something that is missing from all these conversations about defense. What should we really expect from Lopez, Gutierrez, Chavez, Beltre, Ichiro, etc. a few years from now? You hear folks talk about re-signing Beltre, for example, but intuitively, you’d think his defense could take a big plunge as he gets older and fatter and creakier.
@ CCW – That is a good question. As the authors here have addressed in regards to Ichiro, body type and “fitness” level have a great deal to do with an individuals arc. I am sure it varies considerably from position to position as well.
http://tangotiger.net/#Forecast
In this offseason he is training with Mariners MVP Raul Ibanez down in Florida. He could very well have a turn-around year.Is there any hope that this all works out?
I hope this puts Yuni in a time machine back to 2006.
I’m all for defensive upgrades, but WHO is going to produce runs for this team?
I’m not saying that Lopez is a better defender than Yuni. I know that the UZR/150 is based on their peer groups at their respective positions and that the peer group at SS is better than the peer group at 2B (failed shortstops)… Yuni is probably about -10 at SS and Jose is between even to maybe a -5 at 2B. The positional adjustment from SS to 2B is about 5 runs (+7.5 for SS versus +2.5 for 2B) though I’m not sure how that translates into UZR. Would Yuni make a better 2B than Lopez? Probably, but how much would that improvement be enough to overcome Jose’s offensive output?
My post wasn’t that Lopez is good at defense and Yuni is bad, it was regarding my opinion that Lopez makes a better 2B for the team than Yuni. Bringing in a better SS should be the top priority for the M’s for the rest of the off-season as it is their last major hole.
I’m sure I’m misinterpreting the link, but I can’t find any aging analysis here, as it applies to defensive ability.
Hmm, I could have sworn it was on there.
Tango did some work on it a few years ago. If I remember correctly, we expect players to lose about a run per year off their value after age 24 or so.
I haven’t seen it proved anywhere, but intuition suggests that defensive ability might be a lot more variable than hitting ability, especially for particularly good defenders. Take a guy like Orlando Hudson, who everyone agrees has been a great defender over his career, and who has been improving with the bat at the same time. I can imagine him turning into an average defender over the next 3-4 years, while not losing nearly as much with the bat. Same thing with Beltre. For a SS or a CF, or even a 2B, losing a step is a very big deal defensively, but might not affect hitting ability at all. Anyway, it’s an area that I’m sure will be explored more as metrics like UZR (and others) are vetted and begin to be applied over entire careers.
Here is something by Tango from earlier this year: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fielding-aging-curves/
Thats before adding in their bonuses for “wiliness” and “veterantude,” right?
But seriously, that is interesting. I would not have thought the average decline was that gradual. I guess it is a product of large number of personal “plateau” and “cliffs.” Or is the perception that there is a defensive “cliff” that players fall off just an illusion, generated by gradual change?
Tango’s data seems to support both a cliff and a gradual decline if I am reading it right. At least for SS. He shows fielding peaking between 23-28. Then then show a decline. To me it looks like he shows a bit of a cliff at age 29-30, but he doesn’t address this so maybe it is not statistically signification(?) Follow by a more gradual decline.
I couldn’t find the follow up article on other positions that he mentioned at the bottom.
Rather than shift Lopez all the way to 1B, how about somewhat less of a shift on the defensive spectrum? How about to third or left? The M’s have a hole in left (well, they now have a platoon of a good glove no hit, and a poor glove may not hit) and as for third, how long with Beltre be around? There’s always rumors of him being traded. Someone up above tossed out the crazy idea of shifting Beltre to second. Could that work?
See Dave’s work at fangraphs. yes, it could absolutely work, although he might be too tall. heh.
It’s writing and analysis like this that keep me coming back here day after day. Thanks again!
Actually, I suspect that the skill probably just as variable as hitting skill, but defensive metrics have a lot more inbuilt error.
Or put him at DH. . .
Dave, you may be right on this.
But.
The fact that we’re even having this conversation – that our team is trying to improve things in the right way, but not be going far enough – is such a GIGANTIC improvement over what we’ve been going through over the last few years.
I feel like Andy Dufresne, raising his arms to the sky after having crawled to freedom through five hundred yards of #@!$ smelling foulness I can’t even imagine, or maybe I just don’t want too.
Five hundred yards… that’s the length of five football fields, just shy of half a mile.
Remember Red, hope is a good thing.
He’d be a very weak-hitting DH.
Didn’t we learn anything from Vidro?
I agree. Given the lack of bats in our outfield I think it would be a good idea to try and use Lopez as an above average bat from second base. I love the talk of defense but making defense the only thing to look at is probably not a good idea. Dave said that Yuni and Lopez are about the same defensively but Lopez is better at the plate so you have to think that SS is a bigger problem right now.
If we want to shore up the middle it looks like Bobby Crosby is free for the taking. Oakland has him on waivers (msn.foxsports.com).
Betancourt (Marcel, 2009) OPS = .720 UZR (2008) = -14.5
Crosby (Marcel, 2009) OPS = .656 UZR (2008) = 0.0
We would loose a little in the offense and improve significantly in the defense.
It’s official. I’m now enamored with the new perspective these guys are showing. And I’m now officially looking forward to 2009.
I’m still reading up on UZR and how to compute it. Just got done with VORP, the cliff-note version.
But, if Dave Cameron’s analysis is as cogent as what I suspect it is, then wouldn’t basic business sense dictate that the best avenue to explore is to trade an asset (Lopez) while its value is higher than it’s ever been?
I really don’t agree with the idea of making him a DH because there are only so many ABs in that slot to go around, and there’s already a few pieces (Clement,Shelton,Branyan,Balentien) that you’ll have to move there in order to maximize their offensive production/minimize their defensive hindrance.
I’m not a Lopez guy and never have been. When I see him play I always am thinking “Carlos Baerga, Pt.2″. If they can land a viable candidate through trade with a +9 or +10 defensive value, I’d do backflips.
My thought- you bought low on Lopez, now sell high…if you can manage to not slit the offense’s throat, all the better…
I’m not fluent on this like you guys so I need to ask: I see the numbers, but is Crosby a good option? I remember him coming up and hearing he was a whizkid. Has he slowed?
I’m wondering if and when he clears waivers if he’d be an upgrade over Yuni or Lopez.
I’m asking…
…you’ll tell me it’s insane….right?
Have to say… sure would be nice if we had a +7.3 UZR/150 second baseman with a Marcel wOBA of .335, like say.. the one we traded for a terrible half of a DH platoon? link
Wait a second. Batters hit .239 against Roy Corcoran.
well the point is still valid….even though it doesn’t apply to Corcoran directly anymore
Is there any chance we deal Beltre for a package that includes a major league ready middle infielder and move Lopez to thirdbase? It seems to me that that would make more sense than playing Lopez at first. I guess if the middle infielder is a shortstop, we could move Betancourt to secondbase too.
It appears Wakamatsu was quoting his home numbers only, for some reason.
There probably is a good chance we trade Beltre since he costs so much, and we seem to be trimming salary for the rebuild (or reboot?). We already have two potential players at first base as Dave said. Of course the team seems to be moving toward small ball. I’m not sure how much Zduriencik is valuing power. Both he and Wakamatsu seem to want more defense in the lineup, Lopez at first may make more sense to them. Given the chance though, Branyan may prove to provide solid defense at first.
I don’t know enough about Wakamatsu’s management style yet to know if this is him saying “Jose Lopez should expect to play first base” or something more like “Jose Lopez had better come to spring training focused on his defense, regardless of where he’s playing.” I like either message, but with no track record, I don’t know if we should take his messages at face value or if they are intended to have some other meaning to the player that we can’t necessarily figure out yet.
I’m a zeliever is the best user name I have seen.
Thanks Alec!
DAMellen asks a great question and I think the answer is yes and Z would probably love to get JJ Hardy. However, there is more than just that trade out there.
It seems to me that the following factors are in play…
1. We don’t want to pay Beltre’s salary this year even though we love his D.
2. They (Don/Z) seem to be mentally preparing Lopez to move while saying things that are counter-productive if we are thinking of trading him.
3. We have pitchers to trade and the Brewers are in great need in that department as are many other teams.
4. I get the feeling that Z is not as high on Morrow where Morrow where a handful of GMs value him very highly… Am I high or has anyone else got this idea?
5. The next trade Z makes will likely address the infield defense and add some pop to the lineup.
Cheap Infield:
1B-Platoon Branyan, Shelton, Morse, Clement, Carp
2B-Yuni (future: Triunfel)
3B-Lopez
SS-Hardy
This is a better offensive infield than last year, WAY less expensive, and about the same on defense (???) when you take out Beltre’s glove and replace Yuni with JJ and Lopez with Yuni.
Would some of the numbers experts weigh in on this?
Also, I am curious how willing the Brewers may be in dealing JJ Hardy. I heard there were supposed whispers of conversations at the winter meeting with the Brewers about him.
What is Lopez’ issue? lack of range? Lack of quickness/reflexes? Lack of concentration?
Wouldn’t these issues remain at 3B?
It seems to make more sense to me to just Move Jose and find a Mark Ellis/McLemore-type Bridge until Triunfel is ready.
Also, Is it preferable that if you must have a weaker defender in the infield that it be at 2b or 3b?
We’d also move Beltre which seems inevitable.
Dave, are there any quality 3b’s at someone’s AAA that are stuck behind a major league stud? (A la Nelson at 1b behind Fielder?)
insidetheparker on December 19th, 2008 3:53 pm:
What Dave said was:
As 2008 winds down, you, my good sir, have an unassailable lead in the competition for the USSM Mischaracterization of the Year Trophy. Here to present your award is George Clooney, reprising his role as Batman in Batman and Robin.
Oops. Sorry. I take it back. Thanks Steve.
I also do not think that the Lopez-at-first statement is Z’s long-term plan. Z just went out and signed a first base platoon, as well as getting a first base prospect in a trade. Moving Lopez to first would be counterproductive to what Z has done this offseason. I like the idea of trading Beltre for an ML-ready middle infielder and moving Lopez to third if he is not traded.
Am I the only one who suspects that Wakamatsu made this statement mostly to put Lopez on notice and give him a sharp prod in the backside? I could be wrong, but this sounds more like a motivational ploy to me than anything: if you want the 2B job back, work on your fielding.
Why is Hulett not getting a look at second if Lopez is moved? He has average power for that position and plays way better defense( range and arm, and also knows how to take a walk unlike some other m’s) than Lopez. Plays hard everytime he is in the lineup. I dont the threads on here about going after a washed up Kennedy( I am a Cardinals fan as well and he absolutely has been a disapointment since he showed up) as well as the Aaron miles option which Tug could easily put up better numbers than him and would be at a less of a salary.
I think that the new coach is looking more to move Lopez either to first or third( if beltre is dealt) and have Carona and Tug fight it out in spring training for the starting role at second. Carona will be the utility infielder for sure considering they have to keep him on the 25 man roster the whole season. I really think that either Seattle is scared to be shown up if Tug plays lights out or the fans/media still think this team will sign some big names and be a contender this season, which is a pipe dream!!!!!!!!!!
You might be right about Hulett, but in any trade we have to get a upgrade at shortstop, dump a pitcher (Washburn), or pick up a hard-hitting outfielder.
Any statheads have some numbers on Hulett’s defense?
micahjr,
Here is some of tugs stats from last season for tacoma and then seattle.
Tacoma fielding %-
81 games (36 at second base and 45 at shortstop)
.983 at second and .984 at short with 363 total chances. only 3 errors at each position. In seattle he had a .1000 fielding percentage with not alot of chances, but I remember one play that he made against Maur from the twins, up the middle backhand behind second base and threw him out to end the inning! do you remember that one?
Hitting-
In tacoma Tug batted .298 14 hr’s, 47 Rbi’s from eather leadoff or the 2 hole!!
In seattle Tug batted .224 in only 49 at bats 1 hr and a double and 2 rbi’s. He did srike out 17 times but in his first stint in the majors with limited ab’s and coming off the bench late in games that not bad at all. He did hit his first career hr. and in his first game in the majors he got his first major league hit and was 1-3 and could have been 2-3 if he was not robbed by a leaping grudzelanik(SP) in Kansas City.
If given the chance he could be the answer at second if Lopez is moved.