Another Awesome New Stat Site

Dave · December 22, 2008 at 10:05 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Sean Smith, the creator of the CHONE projection system, has built his own site to house his projections, and he’s made it remarkably cool in one week’s time. For instance, check out Raul Ibanez’s expanded player page.

At the top, there’ his offensive projection for 2009. His total line comes out to +7 runs per 150 games played, compared to an average hitter. Below that, he lists the confidence level percentiles, showing a range of potential performances. Below that is his six year forecast. And, my favorite part, his user selected defensive ratings – you simply pick whether you think Ibanez is going to be an Excellent defender, a Good defender, an Average Defender, a Poor Defender, or a Putrid defender, and the corresponding win values and dollar values are listed for you.

Anyway, check it out. Sean’s site has a bunch of cool stuff on it.


24 Responses to “Another Awesome New Stat Site”

  1. HerseyChris on December 22nd, 2008 10:21 am

    Awesome site.

    I checked out Ichiro first, and as usual, projections don’t do him justic (probably because he’s such a unique player, I mean how do you project players like Ichiro or Pujols anyways, when they are practically supermen?). Next year he won’t get 200 hits (due to less ABs), but I think he’ll get 160+ games in for the remainder of his contract.

    I checked out Felix next, and his sheet looks a bit off. I don’t really see a 23 year old pitching less and less (culminating in a 100 IP when he’s 28?).

    Overall, awesome site though. Thanks for the reference Dave.

  2. irish on December 22nd, 2008 10:38 am

    Chone projects our two best offensive players to be Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton.

    Can I just say again how awesome it is to have a GM that understands the concept of cheaply available talent?

  3. PLU Tim on December 22nd, 2008 10:46 am

    Cool site. I do wonder if he is differentiating between the outfield positions.

    Is Franklin G, being measured as a CF or just a generic OF?

  4. Red Apple on December 22nd, 2008 11:16 am

    Griffey (-15) projected as a worse defensive corner OF than Ibanez (-13)? Wow.

  5. coasty141 on December 22nd, 2008 11:40 am

    Holy crap! look at the value it has for Beltre if you consider him the excellent defender he is.

  6. PLU Tim on December 22nd, 2008 11:43 am


    Many of us have been fighting the good fight for Beltre for years now.

    If the M’s deal Beltre they shouldn’t have to eat a dime of his salary.

  7. katal on December 22nd, 2008 11:56 am

    Awesome link. Thanks!

  8. coasty141 on December 22nd, 2008 11:57 am

    No kidding. I’ve seen Dave and DMZ justify the 13mil but 18mil is a big number.

  9. CMC_Stags on December 22nd, 2008 11:58 am

    If the M’s deal Beltre, they should not only not eat a dime of his salary, they need to get back 1 MLB ready top prospect and at least one more player if not more. He should be a type A free agent at the end of the season and the M’s will definately offer him arbitration. He’s also something along a 3-4 WAR player and could be higher with a below market contract for the year. That’s alot of value.

    Also, according to Dave’s work over at Fangraphs, it’s not outside the realm of possibility for the team to shift him to 2B occasionally this season if they needed to. He definately has the ability to do it.

  10. asuray on December 22nd, 2008 12:07 pm

    I like the site though I’m having a hard time figuring out how he’s projecting wins +/- replacement. It seems he uses a different adjustment than the standard +20 runs and it changes from player to player (example: Corona is projected as -24 runs but his weighted runs +/- replacement is +4 ?). Also, I’d be interested to see how the speed score is calculated and how it figures into the WAR formula. Good site though. I love the best/worst case projections.

  11. galaxieboi on December 22nd, 2008 12:14 pm

    Yeah, Sean did an excellent job. I love it, something else to monkey with until pitchers and catchers report.

  12. galaxieboi on December 22nd, 2008 12:29 pm

    Excellent (+15 runs) 7.8 34.3

    Ha! That’s Pujols’ line if we project him @ his 50th percentile with excellent defense. At $4.4M per win, Albert clocks out at $34.3(!!!) million this season.

  13. JMB on December 22nd, 2008 12:32 pm

    Just scanned through the M’s hitter projections and ugh. Ichiro’s .353 OBP is the highest of the bunch.

  14. robzk on December 22nd, 2008 1:01 pm

    Excellent (+15 runs) 6.5 28.6

    That’s Mauer’s line, assuming excellent defense. MVP?

  15. JI on December 22nd, 2008 1:24 pm

    I know what I’m doing for the rest of the week.

  16. galaxieboi on December 22nd, 2008 1:54 pm

    Hey, it’s WFB’s page!

  17. TrevorB on December 22nd, 2008 2:15 pm

    Sweet site. Can anyone explain why the 6 year projection for Felix has his innings decreasing each year? It has him throwing 109 innings in the 2014 season, he’ll only be 28 years old. I’m just curious that’s all. Thanks.

  18. TCW on December 22nd, 2008 2:43 pm

    Baldelli’s page.

    With that and this info, I really hope the M’s take a good look at signing him. I agree with BB&T’s assessment in the link above:

    I thought that Baldelli would be a low-risk, medium reward signing; but now he looks like a possible low risk, high reward guy.

  19. galaxieboi on December 22nd, 2008 2:53 pm

    You could email Sean and ask him.

  20. Breadbaker on December 22nd, 2008 5:19 pm

    I’m confused by the pitcher projections. He has Felix down to about 100 K’s a season by age 28. I don’t get that, and I don’t see the historical justification for it, either.

  21. skyking162 on December 22nd, 2008 5:47 pm

    Injury concerns and loss of skill are why Felix’s IP projection slowly decreases. You’ll find that for everyone.

    Try this: go back 8 years and find all pitchers with 180ish IP for 2 or 3 years in a row. Find their average number of innings each year down the road. Feel free to take only pitchers that are relatively young. The projection system is being properly conservative.

    Although, you won’t find many as young as Felix.

  22. Dave on December 22nd, 2008 5:57 pm

    The projection system doesn’t think Felix will only throw 100 innings at age 28. It thinks there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll throw 0 (think Mark Prior), a decent chance he’ll throw 25-50 (Mark Mulder), some chance he’ll throw 75-150, and a decent chance he’ll throw 180 plus. Then, it just weights all those chances together and displays the mean.

    The system isn’t saying that Felix will throw 100 innings at age 28. It’s saying the sum of all probable outcomes is 100 innings.

  23. scottiedawg on December 22nd, 2008 10:23 pm

    I love the percentiles on the CHONE site. I can get a feel for a range of projections.

  24. DIPLOMATIC SHARK on December 22nd, 2008 11:37 pm

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