Chance For Redemption
“I’d love to have an outfield bat, and I’d love to have another infielder,” Zduriencik said, listing the Mariners’ remaining priorities. “And everyone is looking for pitching.”
Nick Swisher might not be a Yankee for long. The signing of free agent Mark Teixeira eliminated any chance of Swisher playing first base, and the team’s outfield surplus almost certainly will lead to a trade.
Nick Swisher is headed into his age 28 season. He’s guaranteed $22 million over the next three seasons, and has an option for 2012 that could turn the deal into $31 million over four years. Depending on whether the option is picked up, the AAV of his contract is between $7 and $8 million per year for his 28-30/31 seasons.
Here’s Swisher’s FanGraphs Win Values for his career:
2005: 2.1 wins
2006: 3.4 wins
2007: 3.8 wins
2008: 0.9 wins
Yes, he had a bad year last year. It happens. His skillset remained in tact, however – his walk, strikeout, and home run rates were all right in line with where they’d always been. His batted ball profile was unchanged. His batting average on balls in play just tanked and pulled his batting average down to .219, and that’s not the kind of thing that screams “fell off a cliff”.
The CHONE projections have him at .250/.360/.450 for 2009, which would make him a +10 run hitter. Defensively, he’s above average in a corner, which is where he’d play on the M’s. Call him +5 runs as a left fielder. He’s also a switch hitter without much of a platoon split, and he’s durable enough to play everyday. That makes him a +2.75 win player for 2009.
Depending on how well you think he’ll age, he’s probably +7 to +10 wins over the first three years of the contract. $22 million in salary for 7 to 10 wins over the next three years. This is the kind of guy the M’s should be interested in – an above average switch hitter with a flyball swing that’s perfect for Safeco and who could step right into the middle of the line-up on a daily basis.
The M’s have the extra pieces needed to get the deal done. While I’m as big a fan of bargain shopping as anyone, there aren’t many above average players left on the market, and there aren’t any who are headed into their age 28 season and fit the M’s roster as well as Swisher does. They missed their first chance to pick him up on the cheap, but hopefully they can see that opportunity is knocking again.
Nick Swisher please. Thank you.