Win Values For Pitchers
Dave · January 12, 2009 at 1:00 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Now available on FanGraphs. Here are some of the relevant M’s pitchers:
Felix Hernandez
Erik Bedard
Brandon Morrow
Carlos Silva
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
J.J. Putz
Aaron Heilman
Roy Corcoran
Ryan Rowland-Smith
These win values are based on FIP, so if you’re used to evaluating pitchers by ERA, you’re going to get shocked by some of these. I’ll be walking through the process of explaining the calculation over at FanGraphs, so if you’re interested in the nuts and bolts, read the posts over there. Otherwise, knock yourself out.
Hmm. Felix was a 4.4 win pitcher at age 21. Now, if he could just get a solid game plan…
I’m having a ball with these already. It’s pretty cool to see how Putz literally goes from replacement level to +5 wins of awesomeness.
And umm….Batista, yikes.
Grumble grumble FIP grumble
Gotta say I’m extremely disappointed that something as simple as FIP was used to calculate these values.
Needs more tRA.
In 2007 Silva was a $8.6m value pitcher earning $4.3m; last year he was a $5.8M pitcher earning $8.3m. Now if he can just return to his 2007 level in 2009, when he earns $11m…. he’ll still be overpaid.
So we’ve exploited King Felix for the win equivalent of $55 million over four seasons? Maybe Karl Marx was on to something after all.
The only pitchers who didn’t have big dropoffs from 2007 to 2008 are the ones who barely HAD a 2007 (Corco, RRS). Bedard lost FIVE POINT ONE value wins, Batista 4.1, even Felix 0.8. By my count these ten names alone dropped more than 15 wins. There’s no way that kind of train wreck is sustainable. I would have to assume that all other things being equal at least some of these guys (or their replacements) are going to move back in the other direction this season, right? We should be better, but also at least a little bit luckier.
I know the Lookout Landing guys prefer tRA to FIP. What’s the functional difference between the two? I understand FIP: Linear weights for things pitchers can control, park- and league-adjusted. How about tRA? And how much would that change Fangraph’s numbers?
I’d be fascinated to know just how awesome Pedro was in 99-00.
M’s BABIP allowed:
2008: .313
2007: .321
2006: .304
2005: .294
2004: .295
2003: .276
2002: .292
Their BABIP was actually better than 2007 last year. I was thinking that may explain the drop-off in 2008, but i guess it was more from new players (Silva, Bedard) going from teams with defense to one without.
EDIT: After Saturday, I’m really excited to see the M’s field a team that may get that back towards the 2003 end of the spectrum this year. If Chavez is the primary starter in LF, you have plus defensive players at ever position but SS, 2B, and C with the possibility of 2B and C being near league average.
It seems rather inconsistent to preach defense and then have your worst defender at short. I’m expecting something will have to happen.
robbbbbb: they’re pretty similar, both using outcomes like fly balls, ground balls, swinging strikes, etc and assigning run values to them. You should go look at the tRA post at LL for the details, but in my understanding the biggest difference is tRA doesn’t factor in HR rates, assuming pitchers can’t control which FBs leave the yard.
Felix is worth somewhere between 15 and 20 million and he makes less than 1 million. That’s quite a deal.
2006-2008 Win Values
Felix Hernandez: 3.5, 4.4, 3.6
Erik Bedard: 5.4, 6.1, 1.0
Jarrod Washburn: 1.6, 2.3, 1.1
Carlos Silva: -0.1, 2.1, 1.3
Miguel Batista: 2.8, 2.9, -1.3
I know we all heap scorn on Carlos Silva but this tells me he was our second best starting pitcher last year – yikes!
By comparison, here are two prominent ex-Mariners:
Randy Johnson: 3.9, 1.5, 3.6
Jamie Moyer: 1.7, 2.6, 2.3
Interesting factoid #1: Jamie ($6 mil) made less than everyone other than Felix in 2008.
Interesting factoid #2: Randy was worth 9.6 wins in 2004 – when he was 40 years old!
Looking at those the question that springs to mind is:
What the hell happened to Miguel Batista???
I also think that tRA should have been used. It is way, way more advanced than FIP. I still go to Statcorner to value pitchers. If fangraphs had started using tRA, I could get all of my info in one place.
Karl Marx predicted the rise of unions that exploited younger workers for the sake of older workers?
The same thing that happens to most of us eventually. Too many birthdays. Having them in moderation is fine, but when you let them pile up, they take their toll. Of course there are “functional ageoholics” like Moyer and Randy Johnson (and Rickey Henderson), but don’t let the exceptions fool you.
Basically FIP = K+BB+HBP+HR
tRA = K+BB+HBP+GB+Bunt+LD+IFB+OFB+HR
Needs more tRA.
Needs more cowbell.
(let the El Buffalo jokes commence)
Karl Marx predicted the rise of unions that exploited younger workers for the sake of older workers?
No, he expounded on the exploitation of the worker (Felix) by the bourgeois which in this case would be major league baseball. But I thought I read that Marx actually was a closet Yankees fan.
I think that was Groucho Marx, actually.
Anyway, a return to 5-win form by Erik Bedard alone might mean a CHAMPIONSHIP. By which I mean 80 wins.