Garrett Olson
ESPN reports that the pitching prospect the M’s are getting with Ronny Cedeno is Garrett Olson, whom the Cubs just picked up from the Orioles for Felix Pie.
At this point, if you don’t like this trade, you’re just trying to be a curmudgeon. This is an amazingly fantastic deal for the M’s.
Olson is a 25-year-old LHP with a below average fastball, a good slider, and a solid change-up. He was the Orioles best pitching prospect the last few years, but like Cedeno, he’s been bad in the majors. However, not nearly as bad as his results would indicate.
In 132 innings for Baltimore last year, Olson had a 5.13 FIP – way, way lower than his 6.65 ERA. Just like we talked about with Silva, there’s a huge regression to the mean coming, and considering his minor league track record, quite a bit of upside beyond that.
Olson consistently struck out about one batter per inning in the minors and flashed good command as well. He’s pretty neutral on balls in play, being neither an extreme groundball or flyball guy. CHONE projects him for a 4.96 FIP for 2009, which sounds about right. He’s a #5 starter with potentially some upside as a #4 starter. Not that much unlike Aaron Heilman himself, honestly.
He’s under team control for five more years, and he won’t make any money until 2011. Adding him to Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ryan Feierabend, and Jason Vargas, the club now has four mid-20s LHPs with potential who are all under team control for the next 4-5 years. The M’s have quietly been stockpiling arms who fit perfectly into Safeco Field, and filling out the back-end of the rotation for no cost for the foreseeable future.
I’d have traded Heilman for either Ronny Cedeno or Garrett Olson. To get both is just a huge win for the M’s.
Am I missing something? The Cubs have (so far) parlayed Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson into Aaron Heilman and Class-A right-hander Henry Williamson? Their master plan to acquire Peavy gets stranger by the day.
Olson starts the year in AAA, right? You’ve got to let him keep developing as a starter, and as detailed earlier there don’t appear to be any rotation spots available.
Heilman and Olson sound like a wash, except that Olson is a lefty…so basically, we got Cedeno for free…nice…
Since they are both out of options, who gets tossed from the 40-man roster to make room for them both?
I don’t think Olson is out of options.
Please tell me the next step is that Washburn and or Silva go bye bye next!
If, as Dave indicated in a post below, Heilman’s upside is to pull a Dempster, then it seems like he has, at a minimum, a greater upside than Garrett Olson.
Given that, I’m not sure that trading Heilman for Olson straight-up would have made a lot of sense (as Dave suggests in the post). Unless, of course, you think Heilman has a <10% chance of reaching his Dempster upside.
But, when you consider that we also received Ronny Cedeno, the deal looks like a good one.
I’m so excited for Olson. I was talking to a buddy a couple weeks ago about the Pie-Olson deal and how we should have tried to get Olson. I agree with you fully Dave. To get either would have been nice. To get both is another Z coup! Cedeno fills in WFB’s role better than WFB. What does this mean for Corona?
Also, while Ia gree that right now Heilman and Olson are quite comparable, Olson’s upside is so much higher at this point. I know, I know. Age doesn’t matter. Still, I’ll take the potential upside fo a 25 year old lefty over 30+ year old righty. Also, to tie this into your earlier thread on the pitching staff, does Olson automatically take Heilman’s spot as a starter/pen swing until Wash or Silva are moved do you think?
Go M’s!
Aaron M.
Heilman and Olson have similar talent levels. Heilman is under club control for two years at arb salaries, Olson is under club control for five years, two of which are at the league minimum. And he has a minor league option, which lets him go to Tacoma and not clutter up the pitching staff.
There’s no way you could prefer Heilman to Olson as an M’s fan. No way. Olson is clearly the more valuable property.
Then again, the fact that Olson is under club control for 5 years is a significant factor in his favor as compared to Heilman.
Yeah, I am coming around to the view that, even in a one-for-one, it would have been a good move.
I don’t think we’ll ever see Heilman become Dempster. Personally, I think we’ll see Heilman become other former high-potential Mets, like Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher. And I know age doesn’t matter for pitchers, but I’ll take a 25 year old lefty with a high upside over a 30+ righty in Heilman whose had lots of chances. I think Olson should develop into a solid No. 4 with the potential to be a No. 3. I agree with you Dave; to get either would have been nice. To get both is another Z coup!
Couple questions: 1) Does Olson automatically compete for Heilman’s spot in terms of a rotation/pen swing? 2) Does this mean we can have Cedeno as our WFB instead of Corona? What does this mean for Corona?
Aaron M.
I just became a fan of Jack Zduriencik on Facebook.
What else can I say?
Go Go Zduriencik!!
Sorry…comp’s been having a hard time loading the site today. Didn’t mean to post twice.
Doesn’t hurt that Olson’s got a good solid Norwegian name, either. Gotta sell those tickets in Ballard someway or other.
I’m getting tired of the relentless positivity here. Don’t you guys want the team to lose anymore?
Go Jack Go!
So who gets bumped from the 40 man to make room for these two fine players? Messenger?
The site’s definitely grinding like an old mechanical calculator trying to divide by zero today. If we actually had a game going on, the place would explode like a [fill in your favorite C4-toting ethnic or religious group here] with a grudge.
I like the move…I am hoping and hoping this is not a move for a bench player, but that it means Yuni is headed out of town…not sure if Cedeno is going to be a great full-time shortstop, but I’d rather give the job to him than watch Yuni out there again…
Z is making this the best off-season in recent memory…keep it up Z!
Ship out Wash and Yuni and bring in Swisher!
I can’t wait for opening day!
Ok… do you know what Mariners fans should be most excited about when it comes to Jack Zduriencik? (Please keep the Capt. Obvious comments down for a couple seconds…) He knows what he’s been doing. He’s been schooled in how to do this, or he’s just a natural.
General manager genius doesn’t even begin to describe what he’s just done with trading Aaron Heilman for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson. The Cubs didn’t even have Olson long enough for me to not have to look up how to spell his last name, but I was excited to have him as a Cubs fan. And now he’s gone, taking a valuable middle-infielder with him.
It’s a great trade, that’s obvious and nobody here needs me to point that out, but there’s something that makes me think Mariners fans are going to just love life under Zduriencik. He just abused a GM who’s been on the job for long enough and knows quite a bit about making trades and getting the best of them. Abused!
Cubs GM Jim Hendry has had a fully, full-on GM chubby for Aaron Heilman for going on four years now. From a Cubs perspective, he’s now, in a combination of moves, traded Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno (two players who lots of teams have had interest in, expected to go to San Diego in the Jake Peavy negotiations, etc.) for Heilman.
So, I’m thinking either Z knew this from his time in Milwaukee (so there could be a lot more trades like this in the future, since Hendry isn’t even the biggest sucker out there among GMs), or he just intrinsically knew that he had a sucker on the line and knew how to get full value out of him.
Either way, any team in baseball would love to have a general manager with those qualities, and, heck, he might even have both.
The M’s 40 man roster link now lists Olson and Cedeno (and no Heilman). It also has a total of 41 players. I assume a move will have to be made prior to absolute finalization of this deal.
Hendry’s self-proclaimed love for Heilman goes all the way back to his days at Notre Dame.
Well, I’m not convinced. To play devil’s advocate here, you’ve got to admi…. sorry, I can’t even write this as a joke without laughing.
This move is awesome, and I share your enthusiasm for it. It’s not about trading a righty set-up man for two reclamation projects – it’s the KINDS of reclamation projects they are, and the possible returns if ONE of them pans out. Then you can also add the money saved. It works from every possible angle. Bravo, Jack.
Dave (and others), would you rather have Cedeno and Olson, or Cedeno and Pie? I wonder if Z was talking with the Cubs about Heilman/Cedeno before the Pie/Olson trade.
Which, as our Wrigley resident noted above, just makes you wonder if Zduriencik asked for Heilman in the Putz deal with this in mind all along. He probably looked at it as a win either way: either they flip him to the Cubs for more, or they keep him and see what he does for the M’s. And who knows, maybe Heliman turns into Dempster 2.0 and it’s a win-win for both the Cubs and the M’s.
Either way, this is a good deal… and it makes the big Putz deal look even better in retrospect (and when was the last time you could say that about an M’s transaction?)
You know, I was just thinking the past couple of days that the offseason was getting painfully boring. So when I tried to get to USSM this morning and the server was falling over, my first thought (after, geez, we should donate more money to those guys to get a better server, or more bandwidth, or something) was — holy crap, there must’ve been a signing/trade. Now, in the past couple of years whenever that happened I was usually saying “holy crap” with an escalating sense of dread. This offseason, it’s always been with a rising sense of excitement. It’s like the difference between having the police at your door vs your grandmother with a basket full of cookies.
I know it’s getting redundant to say so, but it’s a new day in Marinerland.
Pie without question. He already appears to be one of the premier defensive CF’s in baseball.
tchaw.
Olson’s gotta be Swedish. now, if it was Olsen ….
Pie wouldve been a good fit here. Better upside than Endy for sure. Oh well.
Does Cedeno become Beanyan’s platoon partner at this point? He could shove Lopez over to 1B vs. RHP. Depending on what happens at DH, our bench becomes Joh/Cedeno/Corona/Wlad, with Shelton, Hulett, and Morse on the outside. Morse would be good candidate to DFA now since he’s out of options.
Me like the deal, me like the deal….having Cedeno means we are not totally locked into finding out just how bad with a glove Tug Hulett can be.
I’m guessing this also means we’ll have to work out a deal if we want to keep Reegie Corona- Rob Johnson, maybe? Or maybe a player at a lower-level…
And don’t forget, there are other potentially useful lefties on the horizon besides the four Dave mentioned, like Cesar Jimenez and Robert Rohrbaugh. Jimenez needs some major work on secondary-stuff to make himself major-league caliber, but I see potential there.
But, overall, we have to have about as many left-handed pitching options as anybody in the AL. Put ‘em in a bag, shake a couple out…somebody’s gonna stick.
In the “for what it is worth” department. I watched a bunch of Orioles games on MLB Extra Innings last year because of Adam Jones, and Jim Palmer, whom I have always sort of liked as a color guy, was really high on Olson, and really broke down his starts. He seemed to think that Olson’s struggles were more between the ears than anything, but always raved about the variety of his stuff, and that he had the chance to be pretty good. Here’s hoping.
I thought there were rumors that Heilman would be the closer next year. This trade won’t cause any issues with Morrow remaining a starter next year, right?
I know that it appears that the Org is “smarter than that”…but just thought I’d throw it out there.
Good point. If this trade means Morrow ends up the closer (which I don’t think is likely), the trade won’t look as good.
My money is on Tyler Walker.
I watched several of Olson’s starts last season as well. I’m no Jim Palmer, but his stuff definitely looks better on TV than it does on paper. His control wasn’t outstanding, but he had good movement on his fastball.
Again, I must ask, why didn’t we have this regime in place in our front office AT LEAST a year ago?
It’s amazing how quickly Zduriencik has managed to un-do so much of Bavasi’s legacy of ineptitude.
Looks like Randy Messenger was the odd man out in the 40-man sweepstakes.
This is what has really amazed me too. Of course, the proof will be in the proverbial pudding, but I thought for sure that the shape the organization was in would take 3-5 years minimum to overcome and overhaul. Wow. Try 3-5 months! While we’re still a far cry from a world series competitor, the fact we’re back in the division fray (on paper) leads me to think with this group in management, we could only be 1-3 years from serious contention again.
Aaron M.
As I watch this offseason, I keep thinking back to a comment that Tony Blengino made at the USSM/LL event a couple weeks ago.
I’m paraphrasing here, but this was the gist of it:
“Fans like to see the headline grabbing big name trades, but you can also make major improvment to a club with several small trades that most people don’t notice.”
Jack and the boys have been pulling off a series of small transactions that may seem fairly minor when you look at each one individually, but they show a master plan in process.
And for those of you you missed the USSM/LL event, let me assure you that these guys really know what they are doing! After 4 hours of taking questions from the audience I could not have been more impressed.
Depending on who makes the team and who still has options, one thing is for sure, it looks like the Tacoma Rainers are going to have one hell of a pitching staff. That can only be good for the M’s as it seems like almost every year they lose a pitcher or two to injuries.
Alright, I’m not the stats geek that some are, but I get the concept of why this is a good deal despite pretty horrible Major League performances so far. Heilman’s best seasons as a reliever seem to eclipse what either of these guys have done in their brief major league experience.
Putting all that aside, I keep wanting to read about a young power bat coming back in one of these deals. I’d be right there with all of you if we were taking a chance on a guy who has a 5-10% chance of being a middle of the rotation hitter. I still don’t see the master plan for how we get that person.
Educate me.
Eeeeeh, I’d still say Texas, Anaheim, and Oakland are a few steps ahead of us in terms of their minor league systems, so it may very well take longer than 1-3 years to get on top of this division.
But at least this organization is starting to make some rational decisions again and getting itself back on the right track.
This team needed an about-face in terms of who was in the front office and how this team went about its decision making and it looks like we got it.
How many little moves like this one today and how much stockpiling we need is tough to say though.
I sure do hope though we really are only 1-3 years away from serious contention again just because I’m tired of seeing all my teams lose.
Mark Lowe has been asking to be the closer. Aardsma is a candidate as well. There have been numerous statements by the FO that they expect Morrow to be in the rotation. I don’t think this changes any of that. (What could change things is how Wakamatsu feels about his pitching staff coming out of spring training, but that’s for another day).
i am so happy jack z signed a ball for me at fanfest
“Young power bats” are very hard to get. Everybody wants them. You have to give up a lot to get them in a trade, and when they’re free agents they’re always expensive and usually aren’t still “young” (especially these days with guys getting locked up). So the first step to getting one is to stockpile something else everybody wants, like pitching, and that’s what Zduriencik is doing. A better way is to grow them yourself, and we’ll see them doing that with the draft. There’s your “master plan.” (Along with correctly valuing and acquiring defense so your need for a “power bat” isn’t as great — see the new outfield).
But in the meantime, there may be a “young power bat” already on the team in the form of Jeff Clement. I know a lot of people have already soured on him, but I think that’s very premature. He’s had a lot on his plate (heh), he’s been injured, and he has a history in the minors of struggling a bit each time he’s moved up before breaking through in subsequent years. With a full, healthy season in the majors I think he could surprise a lot of the people who have written him off.
[deleted, OT]
OK, this is just sick or stupid or whatever means crazy unbelievable these days. First that awesome Putz trade, the Rule 5 acquisitions and Aardsma trade and now this. I wonder how Jack would have handled the Babe Ruth trade? It is a good time to be an M’s fan.
So out of Olson, Rowland-Smith, Feierabend, and Vargas – should we be happy if we end up with one Jarrod Washburn and one George Sherrill?
Or maybe one Nick Swisher.
The Yanks want young pitching in return. The M’s seem to be loading up on young pitching…
Good point, hawkblogger. If we stick exclusively to the CHONE projections, it looks like the Ms just traded 2 below average players for a pretty good one. I happen to somewhat agree with Dave’s analysis. However, as Dave would say, there is no definitive evidence to think that the projections are wrong.
Hawkblogger,
2 things on the need for a power bat (and joser’s reply is great anyway):
1) Instead of focusing on a specific need, Zduriencik’s looking for good players who can play important roles. That’s not to say that power is unimportant or anything, but if Cedeno turns into a great 2 hitter (as opposed to a clean-up hitter), well, that’s pretty awesome, right? Let’s get good baseball players – especially those who might play SS – and worry less about their specific skillset.
2) Ronny Cedeno has a half-decent track record and really could surprise people with his bat. 600 AAA at bats spread between his age 22 and 24 seasons in which he put up a .390+ wOBA, decent power from a middle infielder, etc. True, he’s been awful-to-meh in several extended MLB trials, but then we wouldn’t be getting him WITH a promising LH starter in exchange for a veteran reliever (I can’t believe GMZ pulled this off) if he’d hit well in the majors. Cedeno’s minor league track record is nothing like Bloomquist or the other utility-men he’s being compared to – Cedeno could be a true asset with the bat if things break right. 30 HR guy? Eh, maybe not, but this isn’t dumpster diving for a solid role player either.
Cedeno and Olson could both be cut, and this was STILL a great trade.
Oh, and joser’s right that Clement could easily put it together. But I’m the crazy guy who still thinks Wlad could be an asset who brings power to the line-up. Both Wlad and Clement have many/most M’s fans writing them off, and either one is capable of surprising next year.
My question is, with Heilman gone, do we still have the horses to bring in Nick Swisher possibly? I’m sure Zduriencik still wants to add another bat. Or do we now turn to Dunn or Abreu?
WOW. Dr.Z looks better and better with every deal he makes. Its hard for me to believe we are talking about our Seattle Mariner here. I’ve been a fan for 25years(i am 31) and never has the future looked so bright for us.
So let me get this straight for Trading four players JJ,Green, Reed and Luis Valbuena. We have now:
Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez,Ronny Cedeno, Garrett Olson, Mike Carp,Maikel Cleto,Jason Vargas,Ezequiel Carrera. Damn what a list.
He is stock piling cheap young guys under team control for many years, with high potential upside and low downside. This is text book for rebuilding a team and building it for long-term.
Go Dr.Z
joser, I hope our only path to a power bat is not through the draft since power bats seem to take the longest to develop and seem to be among the hardest to project. I realize we’re not going to contend anytime soon, but I don’t want to be 5 years away either.
I’m not sure I’ll ever recover from the “Griffey/Edgar/Buhner” Mariners experience. I just can’t stomach these impotent offensive teams much longer. I used to wait for those guys to come up to bat (which didn’t take too long) before leaving the room for a beer. I now find myself DVR’ing the games and fast forwarding until I see the run total increment, and then rewinding to watch it unfold. The last few years, I get through games in about 15 minutes because the offense is so inept.
I actually watch the pitching now when Morrow or Felix start and fast forward the offense.
At some point, myddquinn, you might want to actually look up the CHONE projection for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson, then figure out that you’re arguing a false premise. Then, you could admit that you’re wrong, move on to a new topic, and we’ll all be better off.
This from an earlier Dave post today is my favorite thought. Consider the addition of the draft choices to all of the offseason acquistions and it’s sort of like trying out for the high school team–’grab your glove and a bat boys, and let’s get out there and see what you can do’.
I disagree with all the comments calling for the immediate replacement of Yuni, Lopez, Vlad–let’s just see what they can do with some competition. Let the best men win.
And even if two-thirds of everything we acquire flame out, we’re still going to be clearly ahead in the long term. Either the keepers wind up playing for us in Seattle…or with someone else after a trade.
The guy’s got a plan…and I love that.
My question is, with Heilman gone, do we still have the horses to bring in Nick Swisher possibly?
I think the horses are still there to pull off a Swisher deal. And as Dave mentioned, the Yankees are looking to get younger all over, but specifically in pitching.
Lord knows we have enough early-to-mid-20’s left-handers now for them to think about. Olson, RRS, Lugo, Thomas, Jimenez, Feierabend, Vargas…and Rohrbaugh may even do something…ye gads.
Help me out, Dave. Cedeno’s projected wOBA is between .299 and .329. Olson’s FIP projections run from 4.75 to 4.96. Are those above average numbers?
I still don’t think you’re getting it.
Being half Swedish and growing up here in Scandi-Land I know that Olson, although it definitely has Scandinavian origins, is not a modern-day Swedish name. The Swedish name would be Olsson and thus Olson, much like other American/Scandinavian names, I believe, are no longer used in Sweden.
What am I not getting? I said I generally agree with Dave’s analysis, but there are questions if you go exclusively off of projections.
What are the possibilities Messenger manages to clear waivers?
Between the Sounders Mariners and Rainers looking amazing this year, Seattle sports are going to break me.
What you’re not getting is that the M’s gave up a 30 year old right-handed reliever coming off a down year for an infielder who projects to be at least as valuable to the team as their starting shortstop and a pitcher who projects to be at least as good as their current #4. To top it off, both of the guys they got still have upside and are under team control for years at league minimum. Pretty cool, right?
So, with all these intelligent moves being made, how long will it take before we become spoiled?
My crystal ball is broken. How is yours?
What you’re not getting is that the M’s gave up a 30 year old right-handed reliever coming off a down year for an infielder who projects to be at least as valuable to the team as their starting shortstop and a pitcher who projects to be at least as good as their current #4. To top it off, both of the guys they got still have upside and are under team control for years at league minimum. Pretty cool, right?
I agree about the upside potentials, but upside potential is not really captured by the projections. Moreover, the projections do not support your assertions. According to projections, Cedeno might or might not be a better hitter than Yuni, and Cedeno does not appear to be a better defensive SS. It also appears to me that the projections suggest that Washburn will be a better pitcher than Olson in 2009.
What are the possibilities Messenger manages to clear waivers?
He was released, not sent down, so it doesn’t matter.
Umm… Chances are Olson will spend 2009 with the Rainiers and will get his shot with the M’s in 2010 when they need to find pitchers to replace the departed Washburn and Batista as well as the – hopefully – traded Silva.
Cedeno does not appear to be a better defensive SS [than Betancourt].
…
…
…
I agree, CMC. However, Bhamster said Olson’s pitching ability is better than our current #4. That could be true if Olson surpasses his projections or Washburn underperforms, but we don’t have any evidence that will happen.
The headline on ESPN’s main page?
“Cubs land Heilman from Mariners”
I love it.
That would be because our manager and GM were on the “hot seat” for a year after they had clearly demonstrated incompetence.
It was some sort of rule, I guess. The “you can’t be fired until you’ve been on the hot seat for a year” rule.
Which was pretty clearly ridiculous. If your manager and GM make bad decisions, why not (a) retain them and (b) add the element of desperation for short-term success to save their jobs?
I know people in baseball defend the Bedard trade as a worthwhile gamble to “win now,” but I can’t imagine new, intelligent leadership with a long-term plan for the franchise making that trade.
Ok, mydquinn, you wouldn’t trade 0.13 points advantage in FIP (averaging Marcel and CHONE 2009 projections) for more than $9 million dollars? Seriously?
I’m calling him Zobama: he is sweeping up quickly and effectively after years of mismanagement. More quickly and more effectively than I was expecting.
My hope: moving Yuni, as he still seems to have the perception/reality mismatch in his favor.
Did I die? Because Mr. Zduriencik you have just sent me to heaven.
Ok, mydquinn, you wouldn’t trade 0.13 points advantage in FIP (averaging Marcel and CHONE 2009 projections) for more than $9 million dollars? Seriously?
Of course I would. But you didn’t say anything about cost-effectiveness. You said Olson is a better pitcher.
By the way, it’s also worth pointing out that Washburn’s salary is a sunk cost. JZ MIGHT be able to get another team to cover $4-5M of that in a trade if he was lucky.
Fine. The M’s acquired a pitcher who is projected to be nearly as good as their current #4 in 2009 and an infielder who is projected to be at least as good as their starting SS. In return, they gave up a pitcher who might perform as well as the pitcher they traded him for but is older and makes more money. And the guys they got are under club control for years and both have considerable upside.
Remember, for a trade to be good you only have to get back something a little more valuable to your team than you give up. This trade meets that requirement in spades.
I generally agree with you, Bhamster. I like the trade. However, I just don’t think the projections provide the unequivocal answer by themselves.
Sorry, I think I misread you. I completely agree that projections are not unequivocal in this case. Cheers
Projections are just that; they can’t tell you if someone is going to break a finger on day one of spring training and be bothered by it all year, or suddenly learn a new pitch. They seek to value the things that are (a) most valuable; and (b) most replicable in performance, cutting out the clutter of previous luck, good or bad. They are a better statistical simulation than “he was a great player before so I assume he will be again”, which is essentially management’s “projection” for Richie Sexson last year.
I like the trade because it shows we are inexorably putting pieces of useful ballplayers together. We also just cleared a huge chunk of salary.
I think the point of projections is being completely misunderstood here…
If you go by measures more advanced than FIP, Olson beats the crap out of Washburn last year (although he was still below average so whatever).
[ot]
Here’s a pretty funny line from ESPN.com’s Eric Karrabell in his article with his fantasy analysis of the deal:
Cedeno, meanwhile, profiles more as a utility infielder, one the Cubs didn’t seem to have room for. The Mariners, on the other hand, had a gaping hole after Willie Bloomquist left. No, I didn’t have a straight face when I typed that. Anyway, Cedeno can hit left-handed pitching, but with Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt relatively established in the middle infield, Cedeno’s best shot to play might be if third baseman Adrian Beltre and his expiring contract are sent packing. If given significant playing time, Cedeno, a career .252 hitter, probably wouldn’t interest fantasy owners. He’s no Bloomquist, but who is?
He also thinks Tyler Walker will be the M’s closer, FWIW.
My my Graham! You wouldn’t be… pro-moting something now would you?
I love all the positive energy and thinking here. I love Z getting young players under team control for years with good upside that may need just a chance to play. The one thing I disagree with is Yuni haters. Yuni is still very young and I think this year will make most of you eat crow for saying he needs to go. I remember many people complaining about C Guillen in a similar manner and then those same people saying one year later why did we trade him away. Yuni has the tools to be a very good SS and he gets to balls others do not get to. Some people take these projections too serious as well. Clement also should be a solid hitter. I am on board this Zmania train and I think a plan is in place. I just think it may take awhile to see the BIG picture…
Well, he DID.
And that’s not projection.
I’ve enjoyed this off season so much, I don’t want the season to start….
This is the kind of deal I pull off in a video game. Genius.
Did anyone here actually say they hate Yuni? Because I don’t.
Cedeno is a year younger than Yuni.
Used to. He’s not the same defender he was two years ago.
Totally off subject here (solid trade today)- but [totally off subject]
Hrmph. Color me a curmudgeon. I’ve never liked Cedeno or Olson. Both are nothing but role players, and you can get role players anywhere. And I think Heilman is underrated. But what can I do?
Yeah, and with “Fair Trades” turned off…
Also, I think this is another fantastic deal for the M’s, and a tremendous coup for Z. I had a hard time warming up to Heilman, and to flip him for two low-risk, high-upside guys still under club control? That’s an offer you accept without a second thought. I imagine this was the phone conversation between Z and Hendry:
Hendry: “So, we really like Aaron Heilman.”
Zduriencik: “Uh-huh.”
Hendry: “How about Ronny Cedeno for Heilman straight up?”
Zduriencik: (eyes widen) “Uh….go on.”
Hendry: “Oh fine, you drive a hard bargian. What if I throw in Garrett Olson on top of it?”
Zduriencik: (eyes widen even further) “You got a deal.” (shares toast with Tony Blengino, and laughs throughout the night)
The conversations probably went like this:
Hendry: “We’ll give you Cedeno and Olson for Heilman.”
Zduriencik: “Okay”
Thank you, thank you.
I am happy to have cedeno push Yuni and Lopez 2 of our better hitters that is great. Cedeno is 1 year younger than Yuni but Yuni has been a solid starting SS for 3 coplete seasons now. The M’s were pathetic last season and that can take its toll on a player as I am sure it did with Yuni so I expect another .289 avg with solid numbers across the board or even better numbers. The age of 27 is about when players start to come into their own and yes there have been many people hating on Yuni here. Z I like the collection of good pieces to help down the road trade for the bat we will need.
I don’t think Betancourt has been one of the M’s better hitters…ever.
Last year Yuni hit .279 but both years before that he hit .289 which is better than good with 36 doubles and only 42 SOs. Yuni had the 4th highest avg of M’s regulars last season and one of those (Ibanez) is now gone. Those are facts and cannot be argued! Sure he needs to concentrate more in the field and get more walks but he is just turning 27 and he surely is not the weak spot in our line-up.
Z is doing a good job, but I can play devil’s advocate and see a potential pitfall in the work the new team has done so far.
In my line of work, I need to make a $250,000 improvement to our bottomline or my buggy whip business will not survive.
I can and have found a few $5-$10K improvements to make. They are easier to find and easier to execute than the big moves to the better. If I don’t stop focusing on these little changes and get to work on some big $50K+ home runs, I’ll never get where I need to be. There just aren’t enough Heilman to Olson/Cedeno upgrades to make my organization a 100-win team.
In a world of limited resources, a small improvement is sometimes not the best thing to pursue.
(I don’t actually think the analogy holds, given that the M’s can waste more money in a day than we spend in a year and come out ahead, but I did see an interesting parallel.)
Yuni is not a good batter. He had an on base percentage of .300, 12th on the team for players with more than 50 ABs. His power numbers were ‘better’ with a .392 Slugging percentage that put him 4th on a woefully weak team.
It is hard to believe that Cedeno with a .328 OBP last year and a great minor league history, won’t win the job in ST.
Good crickets…
Some of them are facts.
This is a fact.
This is an opinion.
Fact.
Fact.
Opinion.
And the big one:
Opinion.
In your mind, your facts support your opinion. On this site, however, and others where more advanced methods of stat analysis are incorporated, your facts are inaccurate. Therefore, your facts CAN… in fact… be argued.
Yuni is NOT a good hitter. His career wOBA is .303. Last year his was .299. NOT GOOD. Although certainly better than the numbers Ronny Cedeno has put up. The reason to get Cedeno is because of his minor league numbers. Let’s just hope he’s not one of the inexplicable AAAA players (that mash AAA pitching, but can’t make the leap).
If you’re not familiar with wOBA . Surprised this isn’t on the left handy links yet.
Wow. I’ve really been impressed with your man Z so far. When he was being rumored as a candidate for the job, one of the tidbits mentioned in the press was that everybody likes him. And some folks thought this was, in itself, good. But I thought it was probably closer to bad. Well, obviously, it doesn’t matter. Getting guys like Olson and Cedeno who failed in their first try at the bigs has ALWAYS been a great way to exploit a market inefficiency.
Yeah, this Lou Brock kid’s not doing much for us. You’ll give us Ernie Broglio for him! Etc etc etc.
Just a great move. This combined with a smart big picture vision of what kind of team you should build for Safeco along with taking guys like Blengino (sp?) and Tango seriously are great signs for you guys. In a couple years you’ll be fighting the Rangers for the division title.
Yeah..at VERY WORST, they improve depth. At best, they improve the front line significantly.
Gee, what’s bad about that?
Having seen Garrett Olson pitch in person down here in Virginia with the Norfolk Tides, I like this deal. Harbor Park has huge dimensions much like Safeco, obviously that helped his minor league totals vice the bandbox of Camden Yards. They are moving the fences in this year at Norfolk though, hitters have complained about lost homeruns.
MrMalibog on January 29th, 2009 2:48 am
Try using something other than BA to measure a player’s value, and someone might pay attention to your point.
According to projections, Cedeno might or might not be a better hitter than Yuni
Cedeno’s range of projections are from .329 to .299. Yuni’s are from .308 to .313. While on the surface that APPEARS to be the same, recall that at least one of those projection systems (Marcel) does not factor in minor league baseball performance (which, IMO, makes it flawed- minor league baseball is still baseball, if at a lesser level, and properly adding in performance adjusted for league should help us get more accurate information). Please note that CHONE DOES factor in minor league baseball performance, and projects Cedeno considerably more strongly than Marcels does
Yuni never hit for power in the minors, by the by (granted, he went through there awfully fast).
[name calling]
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