Ronny Cedeno
As the main piece the M’s are getting for Heilman, I know a lot of you are going to look at his major league numbers and see a .252/.289/.350 major league performance and feel like we’re not getting much back. But there’s a lot more to Ronny Cedeno than his major league totals.
Coming up through the minors from 2001 to 2005, Cedeno was one of the better shortstop prospects in baseball. The Cubs promoted him aggressively, getting him to Double-A at age 21 (in 2004), where he responded with a solid .279/.321/.401 mark, showing gap power as well as flashing a good glove. In 2005, he thrashed Triple-A pitching at age 22, hitting .355/.403/.518, significantly improving his contact ability while maintaining good power for a middle infielder and still showing off with the leather. He got his first taste of the big leagues that summer and held his own, hitting .300/.356/.375 in 80 at-bats.
The Cubs gave him an everyday job in 2006, and it didn’t go well. 572 plate appearances, a .259 wOBA, and average defense at shortstop were not what the Cubs had in mind. It was a bad rookie season, no doubt, and it sent him on a journey back to Triple-A for 2007. He picked up where he left off in 2005, again torching Triple-A pitching for a .359/.422/.537 mark that earned him a ticket back to the majors, where he struggled again, albeit in just 74 at-bats.
In 2008, he was used as a utility infielder and showed some of his prior offensive promise, posting a .305 wOBA in 236 PA. It was definitely a step forward, albeit one that still made him just a useful back-up and not the everyday player the Cubs were hoping he’d turn into.
So, Cedeno’s got a history of offensive potential that hasn’t been realized in the majors through his first 1,000 plate appearances spread out over four years. Heading into his age 26 season, he’s at put-up or shut-up time, where he either realizes some of his potential or ends up as a backup infielder for the rest of his career.
Given the M’s issues up the middle and their overall lack of depth at the SS/2B positions in the high minors, Cedeno is a good acquisition. There’s real upside here – his glove is good enough to make him a league average middle infielder if he can post a .315 to .320 wOBA, and this team could really use a league average middle infielder. In a lot of ways, he replaces Luis Valbuena, who we shipped off in the J.J. Putz deal. He’s the guy we’re looking at now for a little bit of offense and good defense who can push Lopez/Betancourt and give us real depth up the middle.
Cedeno, like Gutierrez and Branyan and Aardsma and Walker and Shelton before him, is the acquisition of a talented guy who needs a shot to see if he can live up to his potential. He’s exactly the kind of player the M’s should be acquiring, and given their relative excess of arms and shortage of infielders, swapping Heilman for Cedeno makes a lot of sense. That they were able to get a pitching prospect as well just makes this another good move for Zduriencik.
He’s still batting 1.000 as the M’s GM.
FYI ESPN reporting a source says the pitcher is Garrett Olson.
Cedeno can hit the ball, will put bat to ball a lot, at least from what I saw last year…I think he will get more PT than a run of the mill backup infielder.
If Garrett Olson is part of the trade what does everyone think of that, because as it looks now I won’t be shocked if he goes away in another deal before ST.
Considering what you said about Cedeno being a guy who needs a long look, what are the odds he gets it with the Mariners? I understand that Zduriencik and Wakamatsu probably won’t be as beholden to Yuni/Lopez as the previous guys, but does Cedeno have a legitimate shot to get ahead of either of them with a good spring? If not, it’s hard to see him getting more than ~250 PA he got last year.
Maybe we can trade him back to Baltimore for Kam Mickolio? That would make me smile.
I would hope that one of the three middle infielders would have a hot start and then be trade bait, rather than a full season of musical chairs with barely-good-enough-to-be-a-FT-starter middle infielders.
All GMs bat 1.000 in the offseason.
I love what Z has been doing, and have no doubt that we are in good hands, but hyperbole sets unreasonable expectations. This team could win 75 game next year and be a success in my eyes based on the foundation that has been laid. But if the talk radio crowd is told that we have had an amazing off season and we end up under .500 then whose head will they start calling for?
“All GMs bat 1.000 in the offseason.”
Hahaha…no.
From afar, it doesn’t sound like the talk radio crowd warming to the Mariners and JZ is a real immediate concern. And nobody’s claiming they’re going to go out and win 100 games. I don’t see the harm in spreading a little far-sighted optimism.
Clearly, you weren’t here last offseason then.
Isn’t the worst case that Cedeno replaces Willie Bloomquist? He doesn’t have quite the flexibility of WFB to play the outfield (or at least stand out there and pretend) but the M’s have 4 OF anyway. And Bloomquist was making $1M whereas Cedeno costs the league minimum.
Even if the guy never puts it together and makes good on his potential, this is a defensible acquisition. But if you pick up enough young guys with a chance at some upside, you’ll get lucky occasionally.
Also, for all the people complaining about taking pitches, last year Cedeno took bases on balls at about twice the rate of Lopez or Betancourt.
I don’t spend any time listening to KJR (except when Dave is on), but I did listen to the Ian Furness / Jason Puckett / Ryan Divish discussion immediately after the luncheon last weekend, and judging from that they’re giving the team a lot of rope. Of course it’s a long season and KJR thrives on empty-headed loudmouth controversy, so they’ll certainly air the opinions of the many who think the team could’ve and should’ve brought back Griffey / spent twice as much as the Yankees / traded Willie Bloomquist for Albert Pujols and Carlos Silva for Tim Lincecum. And who knows how positive the hosts will actually be at the end of a .500 season. But from what they’re saying now they’re willing to give the team and Zduriencik a mulligan on ’09 as a rebuilding year.
I don’t think anybody is thinking that it is realistic to turn the whole thing around in one season. Sure it’s possible for an over achieving team to sneak into contention and even win the division in a down year. Anything can happen. But I think nobody will be fooling themselves into thinking the M’s should should do any better than just show some modest improvement.
A GM inheriting a team where more than 30% of the payroll is invested in Washburn, Batista, and Silva will be given more than a season to right the ship. However I’m sure Chuck Armstrong expects him to get some value back from Washburn, rather than just giving him away for free like Pelekoudas tried to do. So that is one hurdle he is going to have to clear.
A few weeks ago I posted that the M’s would trade a pitcher before April. I was wrong, they did it before February!
Oh no. I was around. Every trade is defensible for both sides on some level. More importantly, every GM could possibly come out on top on every trade – until the season starts. There is no trade ever made that was a sure thing. To take a wildly off the wall scenario: if Z turns around trades Olson for Pujols (bear with me) then it is possible that Pujols could get beaned and never recover and Olson could turn into the second coming of Pedro Martinez. Z would probably end up getting castigated for “giving away” the games next great hurler, regardless of how lauded the trade might have been at the time. Most sports fans, and more importantly the sports media are the ultimate examples of results driven evaluation and revisionist history.
Far sighted optimism and “3 year plans” have killed more GMs than heart attacks and plane crashes combined.
All that said, I personally have a first class ticket on the Zduriencik Express. But anyone who thinks that every move he makes will work out is deluding themselves – but that does not make any of them wrong.
That what I meant by “All GMs bat 1.000 in the offseason.” Fortunately, GMs don’t have to, and never will, bat 1.000.
I make a point of not listening to KJR (unless Dave is on), but I did catch that Ian Furness / Jason Puckett / Ryan Divish discussion after the luncheon, and judging from that the expectations are realistically low. Now of course it’s a long season, and who knows how much rope they’ll actually give them. Certainly a station like KJR that thrives on argument (and needs something to stir excitement when the team isn’t winning) will give plenty of airing to the (unfortunately numerous) people who think the team should’ve (and could’ve) outspent the Yankees / brought back Griffey / traded Bloomquist for Pujols and Silva for Lincecum. By the end of a .500 season the hosts might be piling on. But as it stands right now, it sounds like they’re willing to give Zduriencik and the team a mulligan for ’09 as a rebuilding year.
(What worries me more is that as a result of that, and the economy, there will be a lot of empty seats during the season and a lot more belt-tightening in the ’09 offseason, resulting in a sort of downward spiral into small-market irrelevancy).
One thing KJR and the mainstream sports outlets could do to toss a little excitement into the season is focus more on the lead-up to the draft and the draft itself, because it promises to be a good (and hopeful) one.
Every trade is defensible for both sides on some level.
This just isn’t true. The Bedard trade, the Soriano trade, the Vidro debacle were all completely indefensible. Not that it stopped people trying to defend them, but those people were wrong.
Oops, sorry for the repost (feel free to delete — I swear it wasn’t there when I got the “database connection failure” error message and refreshed before reposting).
There must be something wrong with my computer, Dave. Cedeno’s CHONE projection is higher than his BJO. I thought BJO is ALWAYS higher than CHONE. That “projected offensive environment” sure works in mysterious ways.
Seriously, Dave, good analysis on Cedeno. It’s hard not to be impressed by what he did at AAA in 2007. His power should emerge if he can make adjustments. Right now, he is a good candidate for 2B, but worthless as a SS. He could be especially valuable if Branyan can’t hit lefties.
They were not completely indefensible. Some pretty intelligent people talked themselves into trades that were based on outmoded logic and misunderstanding of value in the current market… but you know what? That doesn’t mean that couldn’t have worked out in our favor, just that they were more likely not to.
Does that make them bad trades (by which I mean a low probability of a reasonable return on your investment), regardless of the outcome? Yes! Sure. I would agree with that. But not indefensible.
I am no apologist for the previous regime. They dug us a huge hole. But anyone who thinks anything other than that Bill Bavasi was trying to do what he thought was best for the Ms is just flat wrong (nearly as wrong as they were in their assessments of player value).
Sorry for the rant, but I hate when people speak in absolutes regarding sports in general and baseball in particular.
Again, Go Z!
How exactly was giving up four players who would be cheap and under team control for several years and one of the elite LH relievers in baseball for one player with two years of team control “best for the M’s”?
Everyone but the KJR crowd thought the deal was horrible when it was rumored to be just Jones and Sherril, and then Bavasi decided to throw in Tillman, Butler and Mickolio and then it went from horrible to potentially franchise crippling.
And its humorous for someone to say other people are “flat our wrong”, and then say they hate it when people speak in absolutes.
This is obviously a big trade for the Mariners, if only because it gives them some options at both short and 2b that they have not had for a while. Last season when we were all gritting our teeth watching Yuni and Lopez butcher ground balls, and throw away routine relays to 1b, you’d glance over to the dugout and all you would see is Miguel Cairo, Willie Bloomquist, the horror, Jose Vidro as your options for defensive subs. At least Wakamatsu has a plausible alternative on the bench now, and it’s an important piece just to provide an option when something isn’t working.
How is Cedeno worthless as a SS? Sure, his UZR numbers have fluctuated, but on the evidence, it looks to me like he should be at least a league-average SS with the glove, and potentially a league-average hitter; that, in my book, makes him the best option to start there.
It is completely indefensible to make a move that is obviously closer to pessimal than optimal.
The fact that they had non-zero chances of success is irrelevant.
I wonder if acquiring Cedeno might be a pre-cursor to moving Betancourt. I think everyone around here would love to see Betancourt shipped out of town before his defensive reputation downgrades any further.
Wonder if we could trade Betancourt to the Royals for Kila Ka’aihue, who Drayton Moore has done everything humanly possible to bury on the depth chart. Or maybe Alberto Callaspo as another defensive-minded SS/2b option with some upside.
Regardless, you have to love any move that puts pressure on Betancourt and Lopez.
I see this as giving Z the freedom to move not only Betancourt, but Beltre or Lopez as well. Gives the team a starter level player to replace one of the three if he can secure the right deal. We have enough starters and potential closers as it is–I’m glad to see him fitting some of the pieces (albeit in this case likely a small piece) that this team hasn’t had for some time.
I can’t think of the last time we had an “extra” every day middle infielder.
They were not completely indefensible. Some pretty intelligent people talked themselves into trades that were based on outmoded logic and misunderstanding of value in the current market… but you know what? That doesn’t mean that couldn’t have worked out in our favor, just that they were more likely not to.
Does that make them bad trades (by which I mean a low probability of a reasonable return on your investment), regardless of the outcome? Yes! Sure. I would agree with that. But not indefensible.
I am no apologist for the previous regime. They dug us a huge hole. But anyone who thinks anything other than that Bill Bavasi was trying to do what he thought was best for the Ms is just flat wrong (nearly as wrong as they were in their assessments of player value).
If I go put the mortgage money down on Black 13 at the roulette table, I’m still doing something that’s indefensible, even if that could still possibly work out in my favor. Bavasi and M’s management overall had many choices in how they ran the team during his tenure, and they chose poorly. At the same time, there was abundant evidence that they chose to ignore that indicated they were making poor choices . I don’t see how you can construct an excuse for them based on “well, it MIGHT have worked out”. Sure, even blind pigs find acorns, but if the best defense of someone who had almost 400 million in payroll to work with over 4 years is he might have gotten lucky… that’s an awful lot of cash to pay for one 88 win season and a sub-.500 record.
In addition, it’s perfectly possible to think that a) Bavasi’s management of the M’s from 2003-2008 was largely indefensible outside of the rebuilding of the minor league system under Fontaine, and b) he was nonetheless acting with what he considered the best of intentions, while he was paving the road to our particular Hell with them.
I see this as giving Z the freedom to move not only Betancourt…
Right now, Cedeno’s real value to the team is based on his 2B defense. He is not a particularly good defensive SS (apparently worse than Yuni). So he is not a particularly good replacement.
Because, they had a logic system for why it should have worked out. If you put everything on black and thought you had better than even odds to get a return (even if you had worse than even odds) it is your information (your logic system) that is at fault, not your decision making faculties.
I don’t excuse them for the logic system they used, but their choices are completely defensible – in fact it is essentially a logic system that drove the construction baseball teams for decades, if not the bulk of the 20th century. Bavasi et al only did exactly what they probably said they would do when hired. I blame management for assembling a team that, from the start, did not show any interest in using the most cutting edge logic system.
That’s a pretty stupid thing to say and I’m curious where you got that idea.
Yuniesky’s career UZR/150 is -5.9. Last year he was at -14.7.
Cedeno’s career UZR/150 at SS is -5.1 (roughly same as Betancourt). However, in his only full season (2006) he was -1.3. You can’t really look at his 2008 numbers (-25.9) because the sample size was way too small. Same goes for 2007 (15.2). His 2008 numbers also need to be taken with a grain of salt because he spent the whole season jumping between 2nd and SS, which is harder than just focusing on 1 position AND he didn’t get consistent playing time, which makes everything more difficult.
To sum up: I am right and you are wrong!
On what planet? In his only significant playing time at SS, 134 G in 2006, Cedeno posted a UZR of -1.3/150. Given that most players improve a bit defensively from their rookie year (adjusting to MLB), I’d say the only direct eveidence suggests he should be an average to above average defensive SS.
Edit: mymrbig I owe you a Coke
Obviously Graham and coward just don’t get it.
It *is* defensible because it’s possible it could’ve worked out in favor of the M’s.
Take for instance this scenario which would’ve worked for the M’s under Bavasi’s brilliant guidance:
Bedard pitches on 3 days rest every time, 41 games started (and CGs) later he’s 41-0.
He then decides to an extension avoiding arbitration where he’ll play for the minimum salary for the next 10 years.
So that’s something like a WARP of 25 for the price 400k per year.
I think there is an article here somewhere that describes how to evaluate trades, and would settle this discussion. I seem to recall it was written by Derek. Maybe it needs a link in the upper left reference material box?
You can also find it by searching for “Ichiro sprite”.
That’s a pretty stupid thing to say and I’m curious where you got that idea.
Yuniesky’s career UZR/150 is -5.9. Last year he was at -14.7.
Cedeno’s career UZR/150 at SS is -5.1 (roughly same as Betancourt). However, in his only full season (2006) he was -1.3. You can’t really look at his 2008 numbers (-25.9) because the sample size was way too small. Same goes for 2007 (15.2). His 2008 numbers also need to be taken with a grain of salt because he spent the whole season jumping between 2nd and SS, which is harder than just focusing on 1 position AND he didn’t get consistent playing time, which makes everything more difficult.
To sum up: I am right and you are wrong!
LOL… I agree that it is worth looking at Cedeno’s 2006 numbers because he was not a utility player, but I don’t know how you can unequivocally say that 2006 stats are more valid than 2008 stats. You have no evidence that “full time positioning” is a better predictor than recency.
By the way, I like the trade. One of the biggest benefits is that Cedeno will challenge Yuni and Jose for their jobs this spring. So we will get to see who wins the starting SS job. Remember, as far as I can tell, the projections don’t really account for Yuni’s strong finish last season or the fact that he has supposedly stepped up his off-season workouts. I am just not ready to give up on Yuni.
Oh god not this again.
DMZ, your jokes inspire me.
Not a joke. I’m exasperated you learned nothing about projections from the last 9,000 comments.
Please enlighten me, DMZ. I have yet to get one substantive bit of feedback from you. I greatly appreciate Dave’s help though.
Tread carefully, my projecting friend.
The authors of this site aren’t monkeys that jump through hoops of your desiring upon your command.
I am not asking anyone to jump through hoops for me. I have simply asked why certain people think I am wrong. They can ignore my question if they want to do that, but I can’t learn much from arcane attempts a humor.
[responding to OT]
Because, they had a logic system for why it should have worked out. If you put everything on black and thought you had better than even odds to get a return (even if you had worse than even odds) it is your information (your logic system) that is at fault, not your decision making faculties.
That makes no sense. If I put my hand on a hot stove element when other people say “you know, it’s not a good idea to put hands on hot stove elements”, my decision making is at fault, isn’t it? I’ve ignored available evidence (hot stove, warnings) because of my “logic system”.
Bavasi was still making the same stupid signings as a Mariner (Richie Sexson) that he was as an Angel (Mo Vaughn), and we could go on about this for a while. He wasn’t LEARNING on the job. He does not get a pass because of the fact that a mediocre general manager can sometimes get lucky with bad decisions anyway, which is basically what you’re suggesting, since ANY MLB decision can benefit from a hot roll at the craps table/dumb luck.
Hi. I’m a Cubs fan, but I read here sometimes because I live in Seattle.
I’d just like to point out the common understanding of most (that I’m aware) Cubs fans. Ronny Cedeno is very talented and therefore we expected a lot from him. Unfortunately, he is also very dumb. His baseball instincts appear to be non-existent and he makes a lot of bone-headed plays. I like him a lot and look forward to watching him play as a Mariner…but I will not miss him as a Cub.
Another Cub fan here and just want to confirm, Ronny Cedeno has about as much baseball smarts as a retard. Probably the dumbest player you will ever see play baseball.
He will get a basehit and then get picked off first base 10 seconds later.
He will run the bases and forget where the ball is and run right into an out.
On defense you kind of get tired of him throwing the ball into the stands at key moments in the game. Nice range, but its kind of a crap shoot after that. Has a terrible tendency to double pump the ball and turning easy outs into gift singles.
At the plate he will swing early and swing often. If the pitcher is struggling and walking everyone Ronny Cedeno refuses to play along. He will hack at the first pitch and pop out.
And if that isn’t enough he doesn’t really pick up on signs from the 3rd base coach or dugout really well. They could be calling for the bunt and Cedeno isn’t paying attention. He got chewed out a few times for missing signs.
Cubs fans will not miss him thats for sure.
[ot, trolling, the joke's not funny anymore]
[ot, trolling, the joke's not funny anymore]
Hey Mike!
Mine wasn’t meant as a troll. I really do read here, I just never had a reason to post before. I like Cedeno…but good luck.
I don’t think anyone has a problem with your comment, Joe, we’re always happy to have new voices chime in. I’m sure we’ll be learning about Cedeno’s reputation and seeing if our experience is the same.
Nope, you’re fine Joe; moderation notes are specific to the comment they’re attached to.
And I’ve heard a little bit of that about Cedeno, maybe it’s something that can improve with coaching, though. Time will tell.
I thought this BP 2006 comment was very telling:
As a shortstop, there`s little he can`t do: his tremendous arm conjures up memories of Shawon Dunston, but Cedeno has softer hands and better range. Whether or not he`ll become a better hitter is the question. He has a nice, even swing, but he`s easily overpowered, and has no notion of working the count. Promoted aggressively throughout his career, he could struggle for a year or two before settling in as a genuinely useful hitter in the big leagues. He`s penciled in as the Opening Day shortstop, but it remains to be seen if the Cubs can show some patience and let him grow up in the big leagues, or if they`ll get frustrated and turn to Neifi Perez.
For what it’s worth, this from someone inside the Cubs’ organization:
– Cedeno was considered the shortstop of the future; not an A-Rod level talent, obviously, but the assumed regular for many years, with coaching prescribed to overcome a too aggressive approach at the plate. Internally, they rated him a better fielder than most outsiders (although the same person says, ‘consider the Cubs’ ability to judge their own talent’);
– when he was brought up, he immediately adopted the ‘too cool for school’ attitude; didn’t listen, didn’t hustle;
– Baker sat him down several times to try to get his attention. During one of those interims, Theriot took over short and never gave it up. End of story for Cedeno.
So, maybe the new crew here can get his attention?
[off-topic]
I could see Cedeno doing a Brandon Phillips…
Dude, if you are going to link to a player page, you should be linking to fangraphs. Otherwise Dave will make your computer explode. Jeeze, baseball-reference … grumble …
Oh, I see. Sorry about that…not used to the system, I guess. Anyway, I certainly hope Ronny pans out. I’ll certainly be rooting for him.
No reason to jump down the guy’s throat. There’s nothing wrong with B-R if you’re just interested in offering traditional stats, or something that Fangraphs doesn’t offer, like comparables or transaction history. Fangraphs isn’t the only “USSM-approved” stat site AFAIK, but it’s the place to link for all the advanced stuff you can find there (UZR, value, projections, etc), though a lot of that isn’t available for years prior to 2002.
One final note…Cubs fans won’t miss Ronny Cedeno getting called out from 1st to 2nd on a walk.
Don’t ask how it can happen but Ronny managed to figure it out.