The Abreu Rumors
Larry Stone has all the info in the piece he did about the Mike Sweeney signing. Lots of interesting stuff in there. Go read it.
Essentially, the M’s have told Abreu that they’re interested in a one year deal with him, but don’t have the money in the budget to meet his asking price right now. They’d have to move some salary in order to bring him in. The obvious candidate to move would be Jarrod Washburn, as you’re not going to be able to get anyone to take any real part of the salaries due to Batista or Silva. You’ll have to eat some of Washburn’s salary to move him, but not all of it, so he’s almost certainly the guy they’re trying to move.
Realistically, though, in this environment, the M’s aren’t going to be able to free up more than about $5 to $7 million by moving Washburn. Jon Garland, a better pitcher in just about every regard (not that that’s high praise), just signed for $8.75 million with Arizona. With guys like Randy Wolf still on the market and likely having to settle for one year deals at less than $10 million, the M’s just won’t be able to move Washburn without eating some salary or giving up a valuable asset along with Washburn that would make some other team value the package at $10 million.
So, to be honest, I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Abreu. There are teams interested in him that don’t have to trade a a non-asset in order to clear room for him, and I can’t imagine that the M’s offer will be so much better than the offers he already has on the table that he’ll sit around and wait for the M’s to make the necessary move to get him.
It’s clear, however, that the M’s are pursuing a LH OF/DH bat, and that they’re not going to settle for Ken Griffey Jr unless they have to. That, in and of itself, is good news.
Dave, I was reading an article at fangraphs on Abreu but I don’t recall the discussion of his WAR projections for this year.
Would you be in favor of Abreu in LF instead of Chavez or would you like to see Abreu at DH if the M’s signed him?
I do agree that it’s a longshot.
Unless a LH is willing to give them a discount, the M’s will probably take the Cards’ Kyle Lohse approach and wait until they are the last musical chair. More bang. Less buck.
Would we lose any of the draft picks we got for Ibanez leaving, if we signed Abreu?
Yankees didn’t offer Abreu arbitration so I don’t think we would lose anything for signing him.
[wrong rumor]
Abreu wouldn’t cost the team a draft pick.
Abreu, as a one year stopgap DH, is interesting. Abreu as an outfielder? No thank you.
I’d still rather have Nick Swisher, though the budget issues will get in the way there, too.
I haven’t done any sabermatical analysis, but I think I’d rather have…
Abreu’s defense + Kenji Johjima’s bat (at DH)
THAN
Endy Chavez’s bat if Abreu was used at DH.
[wrong rumor]
Dave with player like Abreu how much time would you say is reasonible for him to spend in the outfield? If he splits time 75(DH)/25(of) would you feel as though he’s being used correctly?
I haven’t done any sabermatical analysis, but I think I’d rather have…
Abreu’s defense + Kenji Johjima’s bat (at DH)
THAN
Endy Chavez’s bat if Abreu was used at DH.
You should do/read some sabermetric analysis, then, because you’re dead wrong on which pair is better.
Dave with player like Abreu how much time would you say is reasonible for him to spend in the outfield?
95% DH, 5% OF.
Just thinking out loud here. Sign Abreu for 1 year at about 10 mill. He has a good year and we offer him arbitration which he declines. He signs elsewhere and we get a 1st round pick in 2010 and a sandwich pick as well ala Ibanez. Part of the money it will cost would be ate by the M’s to make the fan’s happy along with saving half of Wash 2009 salary when we trade him at the deadline… Am I dreaming or does this sound like a Z-man move?
As a signing, Abreu seems like a good enough fit, but I’m not sure I like him enough to be willing to give up a young player (even someone like Balentien who doesn’t appear to fit all too well) in order to make what amounts to a <1 win upgrade at DH. If they could dump Silva’s deal, fine, but if it’s just moving Washburn or Batista, well, that money is coming off the books anyhow at the end of the year and I don’t see adding Abreu as doing a lot to improve our playoff odds.
I have no problem with getting a guy on a one-year deal to make the current team better. But if you’re going to go for more years than that you should getting the guy you want, not just the one you can afford out of whatever set happens to be still available. Zduriencik is doing a good job at making the ’09 team as credible as possible on the cheap, but obviously the real changes happen after the coming season when big chunks of salary start coming off the books. Those commitments from the previous regime are limiting his room to maneuver right now; you don’t want to compound that problem by committing to additional contracts that could be anchors in the future. And unless you really are getting the guy you want, you don’t want to deal away your cheap young talent either.
How about trading Yuni? That would clear up $4M, I believe, which ought to get them close.
With the acquisition of Cedeno do you think there is a possiblity that Z and Lee are shopping a combo of Washburn & Yuni/Lopez to make room for Abreu?
What do you think a guy like Abreu is worth over, say a 3 year deal?
How about trading Yuni? That would clear up $4M, I believe, which ought to get them close.
Yuni makes $2 million this year, not $4 million. Trading him would save you a whopping $1.6 million, since you’d have to replace him on the roster. Not going to get them close at all.
What do you think a guy like Abreu is worth over, say a 3 year deal?
Nothing. I wouldn’t give Abreu any more than a one year deal.
Yuni turns 27 tomorrow and made only 1.55 mill last season. I do not think we should trade him after 1 off year. We already make that mistake with C. Guillen.
Thanks for the help Dave. I appreciate you supporting your “dead wrong” analysis.
I think you put Abreu in LF (easier to play than any other OF position), and you can even shade Gutierrez to left-center. If Kenji reverts to .285 with 16 HRs, that’s much better than Endy’s .270 with 3 HRs.
You could of course use Chavez as a defensive replacement and avoid perhaps 1/9 or 2/9 of Abreu’s defense.
I wonder what offers are on the table for the big names left. This really is a great game of chicken to watch. Would Manny really just hang em up? How nervous are Dunn, Abreu, etc., getting? Maybe a cheap offer from the M’s is the best thing Abreu’s got going. As has been stated, the guy is 35.
But unlike Griffey, at least he can still play.
Hansk-
I think you’ll start making some progress if you start to use OPS or wOBA in evaluating a player offensive production.
HR and RBI are bad terrible ways to evaluate offensive production. Read this – that will show you what we’re talking about.
I think you put Abreu in LF (easier to play than any other OF position), and you can even shade Gutierrez to left-center.
There isn’t much reason to call LF easier to play than RF, other than throwing, which is not what the analysis of Abreu as a bad defender is based on. Especially with the configuration of Safeco Field, that’s not the issue. And then shading one defender to compensate for another necessarily comes at a cost.
LF in Safeco Field is only very slightly easier to play than CF.
It’s part of why Ibanez’s defense was such a disaster the last few years.
but, but, Armstrong assured us that “money wasn’t a limitation” when he nixed the Washburn trade.
*grumble, grumble, profane mumbling*
Why is the front office holding to such a hard cap? Especially considering its not ludicrous to think we could be in the mix for the division this year with another piece or two; not to mention the depressed FA market meaning there are an abundance of deals to be had. Wouldn’t opening the purse strings up with the potential to have a winner and therefore better attendance/ratings mean that upping the salary ‘cap’ would be a smart risk?
The economy.
Stats are very complicated and many things can be read into them. I would not say HRs and RBIs are terrible ways to evaluate a hitter. I would say they are a part of a puzzle and definately not the most important part. I like OBP much more than slugging and OPS but I am old fashioned and I prefer a well balanced team that gets on base alot and does not hit into too many DPs so speed is important. What formula considers how many DPs a player hits into? How many SOs a player has? A SO is better than hitting into a double play right? Some power is needed in a line-up and so much depends upon who is hitting behind a player and other variables that are hard to measure. SBs are not taken into account for many stats as well… how much more do you value a HR compared to a single? Is it the wOBA formula of a HR being worth a little more than 2x a single? It is complicated and there are many opinions about what is the most important stat but I am pretty sure the wisest baseball people use all the tools available to them along with their own opinions on a player. Respect is a nice thing to have when debating stats IMHO.
“LF in Safeco Field is only very slightly easier to play than CF.”
I think about Safecos LF a lot. Huge area to cover so a lack of range (Ibanez) would be bigger issue than it would be in a bandbox like Citizens or Minute Maid. But at the same time the ball just flat out doesn’t carry to the power ally in left unless its 80%+. So balls should be somewhat easier to track down. There aren’t any obstacles or gimicky corners. Is my thinking off ? What else should be considered?
MrMalibog,
Google wOBA. While it may not perfect it is about as close as it comes (at this time) to evaluating a hitter.
If Abreu does sign with the Mariners who comes off the 40 man roster – Morse?? Balentien?? Maybe Z is going to resolve that issue by including a couple in a trade (Washburn/Balentien/Johnson) for Swisher.. Okay you dont like speculation sorry.
“If Abreu does sign with the Mariners who comes off the 40 man roster – Morse?”
Probably Wash, seeing how they would have to move a salary similar to his to make it happen.
LF slightly easier to play than CF in Safeco? I have never ever heard that before. There are many variables as in who is playing the other OF positions but CF is of course the most crucial OF position by a good amount in most peoples opinions. I do not see how Ibanez was terrible in LF as well. He did not cover a ton of ground but was ok. I am curious why you think Ibanez was so terrible in LF?
Stats are very complicated and many things can be read into them.
We realize you’re new, so here’s kind of how this place works. We know a lot about statistical analysis of baseball. A lot. This isn’t arrogance, or pride, or anything else. It’s just true. Derek and I have spent thousands and thousands and thousands of hours educating ourselves on how baseball works.
This place is like our own little college classroom. When you went to college, you didn’t presume that you knew the same amount as the professors, right? That’s how you should treat this place.
Also, you’d do well to read the archives. Almost everything you’ve said has been covered remarkably in depth in the past. We cannot, and will not, stop and rehash all these points just to get you caught up.
Coasty thank you I am familar with wOBA as I stated info about it. But again that does not include SBs or hitting into DPs, etc. I agree it is maybe the best stat to measure a player but it is only part of the puzzle and does not include some important info
Checkout the section on Lookout Landing called ‘Raul Ibanez Takes Pride In His Defense’ – it’s on the left hand side about halfway down.
Mr. Mailbog — please just stop and go read up. I don’t want to see this thread devolve into a beatdown.
Here’s a list of teams I could imagine having some interest in a #4/#5 on a 1-year deal and MIGHT have enough money left (if the M’s ate around $4 million of Washburn’s salary):
(1) Indians (the back of their rotation is ugly)
(2) Dodgers (but they seem pretty interested in Wolf)
(3) Mets (but Washburn would be way down their list)
(4) Cardinals (but do they have the cash?)
(5) Twins (would let Perkins and Blackburn compete for the #5 spot and they crazily signed Livan last year)
(6) Orioles (if they want to take pressure off their young arms, but I just can’t see it)
Not a ton of potential trade partners out there and most of them are really stretches. And the market is even thinner for Batista (worse than Washburn) and Silva (longer contract, plus the M’s should let him regress to the mean a little). So step 1 (clear payroll) is pretty iffy.
Honestly, I still really like Abreu as a hitter. He is a decent option for 1 year that might push the M’s into the playoff picture. But if the opportunity presented itself to get a younger, cheaper player than I think that is clearly preferable. For instance, if the Cards ended up being interested in Washburn if the M’s were to eat $4 million, why not see if the M’s could eat $6 million and ask for Joe Mather (my preference) or Chris Duncan in return?
So the 2 options are:
LF PA Innings wOBA UZR
Chavez 300 850 .304 10
Wlad 300 600 .313 -5
DH
Abreu 750 .361
Total .338 5
—OR—
LF
Abreu 600 1100 .361 -5
Chavez 150 350 .304 5
DH
Johjima 300 .304
Abreu 150 .361
Clement 150 .338
Shelton 50 .335
Lopez 25 .324
Beltre 10 .338
Ichiro 10 .338
Total .339 0
The wOBA are almost idential, while the defense is slightly better in the “Abreu as DH” solution. I have 2 problems with this:
1. I think Abreu’s -5 UZR could be minimized by shifting Gutierrez over to left-center, and Ichiro over to center-right, slightly.
2. In this analysis the only offensive metric being used is wOBA, which only measures one’s ability to get on base. The big difference between Chavez and Johjima is not wOBA (.304 for both), but power. Johjima CHONE-projected SLG is .391 and Chavez is .357. Scenario 1 SLG is .408, Scenario 2 SLG is .412. Not as big of a difference as I expected. However, I think Johjima has a better chance of returning to a SLG of .430+ as he had in his first 2 season.
Well, I am not sure how to take that comment. I like, respect, and agree with most of what you say Sir. May I ask what I said that you took offense to? I was trying to be nice saying HRs and RBIs are not terrible bad ways to evaluate a player but they are part of the BIG puzzle. Are you saying my opinion on that is not as valid as your opinion or what? I am not new to baseball and/or stats I assure you of that. I have spent years playing and coaching the sport just for info sir. Just because someone has a different opinion than someone else does not make them wrong does it? Actually a few of my professors and coaches did not have a clue to be honest. I learned here and there from different people I respected and combined it with my experience to get to where I am now. I am wondering why the speaking down at me? Is it because I value all stats or that I try to be respectful of people or you felt challenged by my having a different opinion as someone?
Abreu as a -5 UZR? Shading or shoving a rocket up Abreu’s butt won’t get him to that level. If you avg his last 3 years I think you’d come closer to -15. Thats probably being optimistic.
“In this analysis the only offensive metric being used is wOBA, which only measures one’s ability to get on base”
I think you quit reading Tom’s online book entry on wOBA a little early.
“HRs and RBIs are not terrible bad ways to evaluate a player but they are part of the BIG puzzle”
You might as well poop in Dave or DMZ’s kitchen.
I wish it would keep the formatting I put into that.
The difference between a -5 and a -8 UZR is only a couple runs, and I think the additional SLG more than makes up for that. He’s been all over the board with UZR, even 2 years ago having an UZR of -4.2. Also, I gave him fewer innings due to using a defensive replacement.
mymrbig,
You forgot the White Sox. They have Clayton Richard, Lance Broadway and Bartolo Colon fight for their #4 and #5 spots. 6, 7 and 4 era last year respectively.
I can see Abreu taking a 1 year $6M deal. If we eat $4M of Washburn’s deal we are set.
[Dave is mean]
Stone now has a follow-up piece on the Times blog with a little bit more detail and analysis.
If we do not get Abreu, what other semi-big bats are out there?I do not see any bat in our current lineup that strikes fear in opposing teams.
I’m not offended. I’m just trying to help you understand how this place works. I’m not having an argument with you – I’m trying to help you.
And no, I don’t think that all opinions are created equal. You certainly have the right to believe whatever you’d like – it doesn’t really matter all that much to me whether you use HR or wOBA to evaluate hitters.
However, if you want anyone else to care about your opinion, you’re going to have to prove to them why they should. And, to be frank, no one here is going to take an opinion built around RBI totals seriously.
There are valid opinions and invalid opinions. You can hold whichever one you want. However, if you hold invalid opinions, we’re not going to take your opinions very seriously.
We’ve all moved way beyond BA, HR, and RBI. Just like you don’t ride a horse to work anymore thanks to the invention of the car, they’ve been made obsolete by better, more accurate measures. If you think the measures aren’t as accurate as HR and RBI, then you have some learning to do.
None of this is to be rude. We’re happy to have you. But this place isn’t a forum for everyone to share any opinion they want and all are put on the same level. Here, we value actual analysis and evidence. Much like college, an opinion without evidence isn’t worth much here.
Has there ever been a study performed as to whether a batters performance improves/degrades due to a shift to DH?
You could say it gets better because he only has 1 thing to focus on. You can say it gets worse because perhaps he’s upset over not being able to field.
If such a study were performed, it would be great to separate those who are ok with the move to DH, and those who desperately want to still play defense.
That is a great question. I know what I’m doing this weekend! Thanks!
Has there ever been a study performed as to whether a batters performance improves/degrades due to a shift to DH?
It gets worse, on the order of about five runs per season.
I think there was some discussion of this last year WRT Ibanez. Long and short of it was that there isn’t a significant difference.
I’d think you’d need to see a pretty large gap in performance to conclude anything.
There’s got to be a bunch of noise in the data – guys being shifted to DH as their skills decline, guys getting shifted to DH as part of fixed platoons, guys getting shifted to DH to take them off of unforgiving (but offensively friendly) playing surfaces etc.
Wait a minute please do not put words into my mouth Mr Dave. I never ever said HRs and RBIs were a better evaluation of a hitter. I actually have agreed with you 98% of the time so that was very uncool to put false words into my mouth. For you to say HRs and RBIs have no value would mean you have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about and every baseball person in the world would agree with that. RBIs show clutch hitting as one obvious example. Being a HR hitting threat protects players hitting in front of you. I already said wOBA was possibly the best stat there was but it is certainly not the only stat to look at. Again it is obvious you are upset I disagreed with you and you can ban me if you like but even you sir make mistakes. HRs and RBIs are not meaningless! I am a 42 year old man who has played and coached the game since I was 7 years old. So, please do not talk to me like you are my Boss. I think 27 year old Yuni should be kept at least this year so keep attacking me for that as well but I will not let you disrespect me without standing up for myself! Maybe you need to actually read what my whole statement before you incorrectly misquote people!
*Runs for cover*
That sounds interesting, but I doubt there’s a big enough sample size out there for the results to have any merit. How do you separate out the guys who would have seen their offensive performance plummmet regardless? Seems like there’s probably a number players who have been shifted to DH because age/injuries affected their defense, only to find out after a few miserables seasons that it affected their offense as well. (Exhibit A) Conversely, I’m sure there are guys who were moved to DH relatively early, but naturally continued to develop their bat. (Exhibit B)
I could be wrong. Maybe there’s enough data out there to see a valid trend – I just doubt it. But for poops and laughs it surely doesn’t hurt to look.
“HRs and RBIs are not meaningless”
If you really feel that way and aren’t open to the idea that your thinking could be wrong than this probably isn’t the place for you.
Dave – Do you know of any specific places this data is shown? I’d certainly be interested to see it in more detail! Thanks!
Ok, so what Dave and MaxPower said.
They’re just quicker than me.
For evaluating the skillset of a hitter, HRs and RBIs are meaningless. They both depend on too many things beyond a player’s control to tell you anything useful about their skills. Also, we’ve had the “clutch hitting” and “lineup protection” discussions before, and found their merits wanting.
Really, no one’s trying to make this personal, but we’ve talked about all of this stuff a LOT. You’re welcome to either trust us that we know what we’re talking about, or go take a look through the archives (I’d encourage the latter, if you have time, as understanding WHY we’re saying what we do will help you become a better, more educated fan).
We like new voices, we really do, but it’s a different type of place than the P-I/Times or MLB.com discussion boards.
Are MrMailbog’s posts similar to what Keith Law calls KLAWbating…cause they are perfect examples.
I got another one.
Looking at Abreu’s defensive stats I don’t see why we can’t put him in CF. He has a career fielding percentage of 1000% in CF. That’s right folks, he’s never made an error. We put him in CF and we’d have the highest rated defensive CF of all time.
Talk about an upgrade.
Nevermind, not worth me commenting.
Wait a minute please do not put words into my mouth Mr Dave. Maybe you need to actually read what my whole statement before you incorrectly misquote people!
Dave hasn’t misquoted you or put words into your mouth. He’s only quoted you once ever, and that correctly. Read what he writes more carefully, just like you’re expecting him to do.
I guess you are right then. Even though I know more than 99% of people about the M’s if everyone here can honestly say RBIs and HRs are totally meaningless then yes this would not be the place for me… even though I agree wOBA is probably the best batting stat there is. If people here are not open to new other ideas that is sad especially when EVERY MLB evaluator would disagree with you! So I guess everyone here thinks it is not important how many DPs a player hits into or how many SBs a player gets? I disagree with one comment and if this is how you treat people here then yes you are right…
I will say that I’m not convinced that DH is the cause of a 5-run drop, as there’s a very particular selection of players that make the move, and they have a set of characteristics that I don’t think were adequately dealt with.
But enough about that. It certainly doesn’t do much to improve hitting rate stats.
It’s verifiably not true that “every MLB evaluator” believes that HR and RBI are important or meaningful stat.
Those of you wondering about the salary “limit” may want to chew on the following:
The M’s attendance has been dropping by 8-9% per year every year since the high of 2001 — except for 2004, when it dropped 10% in the wake of the horrible 63-win 2003 season… and I don’t need to remind you the 2008 season was even worse. The 2008 attendance was 2.3M (vs 3.5M in 2001); given the expected decline the team was probably looking at barely reaching 2M in 2009 even if the economy had remained strong. But as we know, it’s looking grim out there. So even if they can promote the heck out of this team, and even if it performs well, the Mariners are going to be looking at a lot less income. People may still go out to the game, but they’ll be forgoing the bowl for bleacher seats, or they won’t take the whole family, or they’ll skip the concessions and bring food from home, or they’ll just go to fewer games. And there’s going to be a lot less demand for the luxury suites as well. So even if the team jumps through hoops to keep the attendance above 2M (which would be an achievement in itself) it’s not going to be as profitable as it was. Not many businesses are when they lose more than a third of their customers in eight years.
Meanwhile, the ownership group isn’t unscathed by the economic situation either. Chris Larson isn’t going to be haunting soup kitchens or selling “Real Change” newspapers but I doubt the ownership group is going to be eager to liquidate any of their presently-depressed assets to pump more money into the team. And then there’s this.
So the team has to live and die as an independent business. Now, we don’t really know their actual finances, and of course they still have the TV and radio contracts that were signed in richer times, but we do know they were spending ~$50 in payroll for each butt in a seat in 2008. Think about that for a second. What’s the average ticket price? How much are you going to pay for a seat next year? Now realize that the M’s $50/spectator was the highest in baseball: the over-paid and underperforming Yankees and White Sox only spent $48, and most teams spent a lot less. The league average was $33. The Angels paid $35, Tampa Bay $24, Oakland $29, and Cleveland went over $30 for the first time in many years; even the Red Sox, with their big payroll and tiny stadium, paid just $43. Even at a payroll reduced to $93M and an (optimistic) 2M attendance the M’s will still be paying $45 payroll per spectator. In other words, measured against the standards of a well-run team, that $93M “cap” is generous.
EqA includes baserunning and its thought of fairly highly on this site.
To MrMalibog: I too have been a player and coach and like you, thought I had a firm grasp on stats in baseball. But, what they’re saying is true for 99.9 percent of the cases out there (always an exception). While I get what your saying about avg and hr being part of the greater equation, you really should go read through the archives. I like Dave’s horse-car analogy as this was how I felt when I first began visiting the site (which was only a few months ago). These “new” (probably been around longer than I know
) stat measurements are tools we can all yuse to greater understand an individual player’s ability and what he does or does not bring to a lineup/defense/etc. It took me a little adjustment period, but you know what? It was worth it. I feel like I’m a more educated fan of the game now, which as a coach allows me to see things a little clearer in a practical sense as well. Now, I’m only coaching kids in a BR league, so stats aren’t necesarily what were focusing on. But it gives you another tool to see where these kids need the most improvement and what areas you can help them in to acheive those improvements. From a fan perspective, it’s drasitcally altered my outlook on the game. I never thought I’d write this, but becoming more well versed in these statistical tools has drastically cahnged how I feel about, say, Ken Griffey Jr. Would I love to see him return to Seattle to finish his career? No question. But would I also like the Mariners to be the best team they can be? Undoubtedly. But I’ve come to terms that, based on these great tools, those two desires don’t help one another out.
Now I’m not trying to harp on you or say your wrong or your opinion is not as valuable as mine. I’m just trying to give you my perspective, as I feel like I was someone in the same boat not all that long ago.
Check out the archives…you won’t regret it.
For us, they’re not new ideas. They’re old ideas that we’ve discussed extensively and come to a conclusion upon.
And nobody’s treating you badly; we’re simply pointing out that your thinking is a little behind the times by the standards of this site, and we’re trying to offer you resources to help bring yourself up to speed.
I’m not sure how much nicer we could be.
Speaking of defensive metrics, are there any that take into account the ‘strength’ or ‘accuracy’ of an arm in the outfield? If so, how the heck do they measure that? (If they value assists, isn’t that mitigated by people who won’t run on what they know are superior arms?)
I think if you really wanted to pin this down, you’d need some organization to have one of their MiLB teams randomly assign guys from the starting 8 to DH on a daily basis over the course of a season.
If you looked at the results afterwards, you’d probably have a random enough sampling of individual results to make some kind of assessment.
Again wrong! I did not say HRs or RBIs were a better evaluation than wOBA. Please tell me when I said such a thing? Stats are good but they are a tool along with experience and judgement in evaluating players as Z even says. My uncle was a scout until a recent health issue and you better believe MLB pays attention to RBIs and clutch hitting. It seems several people here have never even played the game. Abrey in CF? That was real intelligent… For making one comment I get attacked by several people whewww! So it is nice to know most of you are smarter than every MLB coach, scout and executive to say RBIs and HRs are meaningless ok got it. I consider myself a top M’s fan since Ruppert Jones. I thought this would be a cool place to discuss things since people seem pretty knowledgeable, but after being attacked for stating common sense I learn otherwise. Thank you for making me feel welcome and the kind words liberal people. It is good to know all the leaders and blond followers here know more than Z. I guarantee he would laugh at you saying HRs and RBIs are meaningless. It is also funny how I was the only one to bring up if we got Abreu for 1 season we could get 2 high draft picks for that move and no comments at all about that…
Sigh.
We tried to help you. You won’t let us.
Have fun hanging out with other like-minded people. I’m sure they’ll all appreciate your genius.
Roy Stuckey Weaver,
I did think about the White Sox as a possible destination for Washburn and the back of their rotation is pretty sucky (by the way, “sucky” is a sabermetrically accepted term and “sucking” is eminently provable via objective analysis). But I’m pretty sure I’ve read in multiple places (well technically I think I read multiple sources at MLBTR) that the White Sox don’t have much money left to spend and don’t anticipate any big trades.
Of course, my memory could be faulty, the sources could be faulty, or the White Sox brass could just be blowing some smoke, so take my exclusion of the White Sox with a grain of salt the size of Barry Bonds’ head.
Speaking of defensive metrics, are there any that take into account the ’strength’ or ‘accuracy’ of an arm in the outfield? If so, how the heck do they measure that? (If they value assists, isn’t that mitigated by people who won’t run on what they know are superior arms?)
The Hardball Times just recently put out their summary for the past year. Yes, they do take into account who gets run on and who doesn’t.
For the upteenth time…no one is attacking you. There’s no attacking tones in any of those posts. You are the only one taking this to a personal and emotional level. Are you reading any of the responses, like mine? I feel like we’re coming form a similar place. Sorry if you interpreted that as “an attack.” It’s not intended to be.
And even that might not tell you everything, because there may be a difference between a guy who gets an occasional “half rest” day DHing, a guy who is a full-time DH who never takes the field. Some players have claimed the latter made it hard for them to “keep their heads in the game.” That may be hooey — just a feeling they have that doesn’t actually manifest in the numbers they put up — or there may be something to it and we’d see that in the numbers. On the other hand, there may be a rare freak who actually hits better when that’s all he has to think about (after all catchers are often given a bit of a pass on offense because they’re doing so much during the other half of every inning).
Well I calculated a defensive lose of 5 runs (difference in UZR) by signing Abreu as a LF’er, but having a slightly better offense.
But that -5 runs is off-set by a +5 runs of additional offense.
Therefore it seems smarter to sign him to play LF.
Also, in regards to the Swisher possibility: I think people underestimate the cost in terms of prospects he’ll cost. The Yankees would rather keep him over Nady, and apparently they’ve gotten quite a number of inquiries, which would have to be beat out.
Yuni has sucked for years. 1.6, 1.4 and 0.1 WAR. His upside was always that of a slap hitting, slick fielder.
Dave,
Please disregard my last statement. I understand what you are trying to say. Maybe with a bit more tact, but good points none the less. I apologize.
MrMalibog doesn’t get it, which is obvious in the below statement.
Abrey in CF? That was real intelligent… For making one comment I get attacked by several people whewww! So it is nice to know most of you are smarter than every MLB coach, scout and executive to say RBIs and HRs are meaningless ok got it.
Mr. Zduriencik, if you are reading this, please consider offering Betancourt & Balentien to the Royals for Kila Ka’aihue.
Ka’aihue is probably very available in trade discussions due to the Royals current logjam at 1B, and the fact that I’m sure they consider Eric Hosmer to be their 1B of the future. After all, the Royals purposely blocked Ka’aihue this offseason by trading for Mike Jacobs.
Please, please, please, Jack, see if Dayton Moore is willing to do this.
MrMalibog,
If it makes you feel any better, I agree with you that HR are a meaningful stat. Not nearly as meaningful as wOBA (or EQA, or a few others if you prefer those). But HR certainly tell you something about a player’s skill set. Moreover, looking at a player’s past HR totals can offer a reasonably tool for predicting future HR (but not the best).
But RBI have been fairly discredited as a useful stat. Too dependent on circumstances (a hitter will get way, way, way more RBI hitting behind two Joe Mauers than he would behind two Juan Pierres) and luck.
Let’s try to haul this somewhat back on topic; and in particular let’s not get too far into non-Abreu-related rosterbation.
Thanks!
MrMalibog (if you’re still reading), please try to stick around with an open mind: we’d rather convert you than alienate you. There’s a crucial point I don’t think you’re getting, and that’s the difference between predictive stats and historical stats. RBI and HRs are the latter. They record what happened. No one denies they’re important in that respect. But what the people around here care about is what will happen, because we want to see the team get better in the future. And to do that, you need to know what a player can control and what he can’t, and which stats help you understand how he is going to do in the future, not how he did in the past. Players don’t control who gets on base in front of them, so they don’t control RBIs (other than HRs, which they don’t entirely control either). So when you’re looking for players to add at the lineup, you shouldn’t be paying attention to their RBI totals. You should be paying attention to other things that suggest that they will hit well; then, if there happen to be players on base, the RBIs will follow.
And, not to pile on, but you need to read up on a lot of the things you think you know. Like “protection” is not as important as you think it is.
Ok, but I think the consensus is the -5 on defense is really generous to Abreu and I maintain that a 5 run penalty for DHing is probably relying too much on data from declining and/or injured players.
Joser,
back to your comment on finances, ticket prices, etc.
I think in relative terms we have to feel very fortunate with our ownership group. Yes, the stock prices for both Nintendo and Msft are off…but they remain incredibly profitable companies, with more money in the bank than Scrooge McDuck.
If worse comes to worst, they may wind up a lot more liquid than most other franchises. (And personally, I feel this will be even more of an issue next offseason than this one).
Does anyone else know where I can find some DH-specific studies? I’ve been doing a quick prelim search and will do more in depth this weekend, but could still use the hand. Thanks!
Aaron
Never mind.
Thanks for the cost-per-seat info above, I had no idea nor had I thought of looking at that.
Mr Malibog said
Thank you. Somebody had to say it.
Dave/DMZ/Conor – Sorry for the sig in the last post…bad habit! Trying to abandon it!
I think the bigger issue with Yuni is his glove (declining range, etc.) and this is just a guess, but “1 off year” in the field usually indicates several more in the future. I’m trying to remain optimistic about his offseason workouts with Raul but let’s not compare Yuni with Guillen.
Mailbog – HR’s are important. So important, in fact, that they are a big part of wOBA. What everyone is saying is that they are not important outside of and independent of that. Great care has been put into how to measure JUST HOW VALUABLE a homerun is and wOBA makes use of that research. RBI are primarily a result of the context in which in which a player produces their hits, BB etc. I haven’t seen any evidence that a player can control the context that they are presented with. Neither have I seen any research indicating a player can control under which contexts he has his good ABs and under which contexts he has his bad ABs.
Mailbog’s entrance today reminds me of the scene in Rounders where two guys in suits sit down at a table full of NY sharks in Atlantic City.
…never had a chance.
Yeah, but instaed of taking his money, the sharks are sharing a wealth of knowledge. Everybody has to start somewhere. For you, Mailbog, I recommend Tango’s book, aptly titled, The Book. The first 10 pages of the first chapter alone will blow your freaking mind.
Let’s get back on topic, but I will say that it’s sad that what he’ll probably take away from today’s events is “those USSM guys are superior jerks!”
When the reality is that we just don’t want to have the same conversation we had three years ago.
Wow now that was a soap opera…. yeah I don’t see us signing Abreu with the cap the team has put on this years spending. Our 3 bottom feeder pitchers are untradeable.
Another “I Hate USSM” post over at the Times forum in 3… 2… 1…
Although Dave said there should be no offer of a contract over 1 year (and I agree), do you see any probability in a two year contract that is back-loaded to account for the budget opening up next year?
I would hate to see the team perpetuate it’s current dead money issue. If Abreu has a good season, great. Offer him arb and let the Mets or Giants or whoever sign him to a multi-year deal. If he has a bad season, oh well. He’s gone anyway.
Classic voodoo economics from the M’s: We don’t have enough money to sign Abreu, unless we can dump salary dedicated to any one or more of three starting pichers who we stupidly overpaid (and, in at least one case, could’ve completely dumped). But, since nobody really wants any of those guys (except maybe the guy we could’ve cleanly dumped already), we would have to give up a cheap prospect with value in order to convince somebody to take one of the three starters (again, probably only one is saleable). Which means the M’s have (again) invented a fiscal crisis (of their own making, if true) in order to prevent the team from picking up potentially valuable pieces, right when the market for those pieces has made them easier to acquire. Going back to the trade of Tino, to the non-tender of Cameron, and the various refusals to make acquisitions when most needed, the M’s seem to have a knack for this sort of thing. Here’s hoping that the new GM can somehow overcome the M’s latest effort to plead poverty. I’m not saying Abreu is the answer, and it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise if Z can resist the temptation to sign any aging vets, especially if it costs prospects to do so.
MrMailbog got me thinking about the first time I came here. I was a lot like him; convinced I was right based on what I’d been told all my life. I even got snippy with Dave over some of his comments. I think he e-mailed me not long after that still trying to get me to open my stubborn mind. It worked. I don’t know why it worked, but I started reading the archived stuff and realized that, logically, it made a ton of sense. I’ve been here ever since.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those who can change and those who refuse to. On at least one occassion, I was the former.
As for Abreu, this offseason has been fascinating. Someone still overvalued Raul Ibanez, but his peers have received nothing but proverbial gut-checks. In the same vein, Jon Garland may have got his due, but I don’t think that really had an impact on a potential Washburn move one way or the other. The smart teams were never going to take him for the full-on $10 million and those that would aren’t interested anymore. I think, either way, we were going to have to eat a good chunk of salary to ship him around. Which, of course, makes Chuck Armstrong look even worse.
With the bottom falling out of the power hitting “I shouldn’t even own a glove” corner outfield market how brilliant does Raul Ibanez look for signing early?
Yeah, Raul should buy his agent a whole case of good scotch.
As this pertains to MrMailblog, and not the Abreu rumors, this is technically not on topic according to the site rules, and may be deleted, which I understand…[deleted, off-topic]
Abreu would be a nice fit for Safeco, and I think really could push the team into contention. Should we really be ready to throw a bunch of money at him for 1 year? Probably not. In the event we don’t contend, it’s money wasted; in that case a Clement/Joh/whoever split in DH is fine with me.
Also, I think you guys are arguing apples and oranges. Are HR and RBI’s important things that need to happen for a team to win? Yeah. Are they particularly useful statistics when looking at players actual talent level? No. They are not meaningless to the game, but they are near meaningless stats. Important distinction, and one I really had to get over to start to come over to the sabermetric dark side, and boy does it feel good to be here. Join the party Mailblog
I really think that it’s only fair that since Chuck Armstrong refused to allow the Washburn trade last summer, he should accept Washburn’s salary as sunk cost and let Z do what he wants with Abreu. Then again, it’s also possible that the Mariners are taking the stance they’re taking in part to get Abreu to lower his salary demands. It’s definitely a buyer’s market this year.
As for RBIs… what do you mean, they’re useless!? They measure clutch! It has scientifically been shown that clutch exists! In automotive science. Therefore, baseball. ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT JOE CARTER IS NOT A HALL OF FAMER????
HRs, yes, but RBIs? Not so much. I think it’s best to look at RBIs and for that matter individual runs scored as events that are tallied on a scoresheet rather than actual individual statistics.
The etymology of the run batted in is basically that in the early days of baseball everybody knew that the single that scored the man from second was almost as important as the single that got the man to first (and, since it was early baseball, the error that got him into scoring position) but they had no way to measure just how important that second single was. Hence, the run batted in was born to offset the run scored as the pre-eminent statistic in the game. I haven’t done a study but I’m pretty sure that in an environment where teams score lots and lots of runs – not 6 a game like in the 90s, I’m talking 9 or 10 a game – who scores and to a lesser extent who drives in the runs can be a valuable individual stat in and of itself. There’s very little building up to score a run that doesn’t result in an R or an RBI tally in those games the way there is in the modern game, and in addition when your league fields at a .920 rate the debate over how much credit a batter should get for a hit vs. an error vs. a hit and an error makes it tough to assign a straight value to a hit the way we can do nowadays.
So I guess what I’m saying is that RBIs are interesting in a cool relic of the past way, the same way that batting average is interesting. But useful or important? Not as individual numbers, no.
Of course RBIs are valuable, at the level of a game. In an actual game of baseball, actually driving in the runs that are available to be driven in is important in just the same sense that, say, wasting a pitch can be important. In the context of a single game, actually driving in those runs matters; that is how an individual game is won.
Over time, however, it is the elements that make up hybrid statistics like wOBA that indicate if a player is going to do the things that lead to runs being scored and driven in, not the raw RBI stat.
If Zduriencik is using the hard cap as a negotiating tactic, all the more power to him. If we can get Abreu as DH on one-year contract for a reasonable rate, or if he can flog one of the overpriced starters and free up some space, that would be all to the good. Of course, best would be to do both: sign Abreu within the cap and then trade Washburn.
Adding Booby Abreu would give use 9 Venezuelans on our roster: Ceasar, Jose, Franklin, Endy, King Felix, Wlad, Ronny, Carlos, and, of course, Bobby.
Is it just me or do others think this is pretty cool. We have to have more players from Venezuela than any other team. Woohoo!
Johnny and Breadbaker- you both made my point in different ways. This is the epitome of the apples vs. oranges thing; RBIs are only valuable in that it requires someone to get an RBI for a run to be scored (no smart ass exceptions please). The actual event itself is not really correlated to a player’s ability, but is largely contextual. SO, it is not meaningful to judge a player’s ability on RBIs.
But yeah, what you guys said. Keeping this mildly on topic, if this trade means getting rid of any young talent I am absolutely against it, and I don’t see Abreu signing within the cap, so that will likely be the case. Trading young talent in an attempt to aquire Abreu, and with a side goal of getting draft picks in return, seems a bit backwards. In the case of a WS title, yes. Otherwise, no.
Also, can I ask a question about why the edit function is on a timer? Is that too OT?
I hope Armstrong thinks Washburn is still worth it.
Well, I don’t know exactly why the function is there, but I appreciate that it prevents people from backtracking and editing their posts after the fact.
I see, so it’s an integrity thing.
If I was Abreu’s agent, I’d strongly counsel him to pull an Andre Dawson.
I agree with the sentiment but really, these days, college is much more: “I paid at the door-where is my A?”.
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Joser, great insight on the M’s budget and what they’re paying per ticket. This is why I come here, as I had no idea. Makes more sense now why they can’t or won’t just sign Abreu. Let’s hope the M’s can find a taker for Washburn and soon.
Latest Hot Stove Rumor, from ESPN News Services:
The Mariners appear to be exploring a trade that would land lefthander Rich Hill from the Cubs and clear some payroll for free agent Bobby Abreu, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported.
The newspaper reported that the Orioles may have the inside track on Hill, who was a top prospect before battling control issues. He won 11 games and had a 3.92 ERA in 2007 in making 32 starts, but he walked 18 batters in his first 19.2 innings and was sent to the minors.
The Mariners just completed a trade with the Cubs that landed them infielder Ronny Cedeno and lefty Garrett Olson.
If Seattle could tempt the Cubs with one of their best-paid pitchers – Miguel Batista ($9 million in 2009), Jarrod Washburn ($10.3 million) or Carlos Silva ($11) – in exchange for Hill, that would probably clear the way toward the club making Abreu, who made $16 million last year, a legitimate offer.
It would frankly blow my mind if the Cubs traded Hill for Washburn. Ignore the salary issues. Hill is better than Washburn.
Knowing it would be to make an Abreu signing possible, I just don’t see how Zduriencik could have any leverage at all when trying to dump salary.
That sounds strange to bordering-on-bogus to me. I don’t understand how the Cubs would give up a good or at least still-salvageable prospect and take on payroll just to obtain the questionable services of any of the M’s overpaid starters. Heck, the expectation was that the Cubs would be more interested in a deal that got Abreau for themselves than in doing a deal for pitching that enabled someone else to get him (though of course they got Bradley instead). I mean, the M’s getting anything at all for Washburn/Silva/Batista? We’d be happy to see any of those guys off the book as pure salary dump. Getting out from under enough of their salary to make room for Abreau? Getting back a prospect? Both? That’s in the land of the “garbage for gold” fantasies that we see in Rosterbation posts.
So I just don’t believe it, unless the M’s are giving up something too. And that would be painful, because whatever they’d be giving up would be big. Clement? (No, they have Soto) Bah, I don’t even want to think about it. Incomprehensible.
I’ll believe the Abreu signing when I see it.
Mister Z reminds me of Dan O’Brien, the Mariners’ GM in the early 80s. That is, a pretty sound judge of talent, but somebody ultimately done in by interference from above and a tight payroll. Does anybody remember Pat Putnam, Todd Cruz and Ron Roenicke?
The difference is that there’s no evidence so far of interference from above (unless you count the “don’t trade Washburn for nothing” rule in place before Zduriencik even got here, which was supposedly, if misguidedly, intended to help him). And even at $93M the M’s remain well above the median of the 30 teams. So the interference remains (so far) a phenomena of previous seasons, and the currently (and temporarily) “tight” payroll is a consequence of past years’ mistakes as well. Nobody believed this team would be turned around in a single year, so already to be heralding Zduriencik as a man “done in” is more than premature. In fact he’s already done more than most people expected, especially given the constraints he inherited. Rather than being “done in” by these factors, we ultimately may be marveling at how well he succeeded in spite of them.
You have to ask yourself what do RBIs represent. They are a combination of: a player’s hitting talent, the number of runners he has on base, and the timing to match these two.
wOBA, EqA, Linear Weights (LWTS), etc, all give you the player’s hitting talent. The number of runners a hitter sees on base has nothing at all to do with his talent level. So, you try to remove that aspect, and you get RE24 (which you can find at Fangraphs), which is Linear Weights by the 24 base/out states.
So, if you have RE24, then RBIs now become useless, as they contain no information at all, that you cannot find in RE24, insofar as the player’s hitting talent and his timing. RBIs are a subset of RE24.
The question then comes LWTS or RE24. You can make a case for either.