How Griffey Could Hurt Attendance
Some people will come out to see Griffey if he’s a Mariner next year, or at least tune into games, or read about the team in the one remaining paper. I don’t know if that’s one fan or twenty thousand over the course of a season, and neither does anyone else. I’m on the skeptical side, as you’d probably expect: from the Mariners own experience with declining stars and bringing aging veterans back for one more run, there’s not much reason to expect a huge bump. I loved watching Rickey Henderson play, but I didn’t attend any games I wouldn’t have otherwise that year. Some people went to see Gaylord Perry in his quick tour here, especially for #300, but not a ton, because the team stank. And so on.
That’s not perfectly analogous, because they’re not formerly hugely beloved players who forced their way off the team to another league, after which some segment of the fanbase spent the time since making goo-goo eyes at them.
I want to raise another issue, and Larry Stone touched on this in passing. What if he’s bad for attendance over the season?
What if Griffey comes in, and 5,000 more people show up for the non-Opening-Day games, and then he’s the shell of a player that Seattle fans haven’t really seen? Think Edgar 2004, but worse. Boone 2005. And these too were popular players in Seattle. Did fans come out to see what might be their last season when they sucked?
No. Of course not. What are we banking on, then? That Griffey’s going to contribute, or that he’s so beloved from his early years and so forgiven for the trade thing, that it’s an entirely different situation?
If that’s true, it’s quite possible he ends up driving people away. The last time Seattle fans saw him play regularly it was 1999, when Griffey still hit like crazy, played center field, went to All-Star games, and placed in MVP voting. If you’re an old enough fan, your memories are of the nineteen-year-old becoming one of the game’s greatest and not long afterwards departing.
What about if Griffey sucks? If he’s hobbled and doesn’t play much, and particularly if the second marriage turns sour and he starts sniping at the front office for not bringing in enough veteran leaders to support him? Or if he picks up feuding with the fans for inadequate fawning? How many people will not want to watch because he’s here, preferring to remember him as the graceful and happy-seeming Kid?
I worry that having this go badly will taint the story of the season, and instead of being about how they’re improving, playing far better defense, and have a promising future, we’ll have a year of Griffey-related pain and hand-wringing, where instead of wanting to go to Safeco to see the new direction they’ll avoid it because they don’t want to see a wrenching reminder of the toll age has taken on the Kid they still want to see.
If we’re going to acknowledge that people’s actions will be determined by their emotional reaction to one player, we have to face that the results may not be all beneficial to ticket sales and ratings.
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I suppose the closest analogies would be:
1972-3 Mays with Mets. Return to New York, where he was a star as a kid, only of course it was to a different franchise. Mid-year trade in 1972, which was a strike year. In 1973, the Mets won the pennant but that was the year no one wanted to win the NL East, so there wasn’t the attendance jump you’d get from saying “hey, let’s go out to see the Mets win.”
1975-76 Aaron with Brewers. The same thing about the different franchise (even different league here), but same city where he came up. No pennant distractions. He was already the all-time home run king. And he was just a DH. And he was basically totally washed up. Probably the best analogy.
Harold Baines in his second and third times with the White Sox. For reasons that never made sense to me, Baines was considered hugely popular in Chicago. He came back to the White Sox twice after they had already retired his number, in 1996-97 and in 2000-01. He had something left the first time and nothing in the tank the last time. The first time back is thus a bit less relevant as an analogy; the second has a lot of fuzziness to it: he came back mid-season, the White Sox had the best record in baseball (that’s the year we knocked them out in the first round) and he hardly played.
FWIW, here’s the numbers, starting with the season before:
Mets 1971 27,984 per game
Mets 1972 27,361 per game
Mets 1973 23,756 per game
Brewers 1974 11,799 per game
Brewers 1975 14,980 per game
Brewers 1976 12,496 per game
White Sox 1995 22,204 per game
White Sox 1996 20,569 per game
White Sox 1997 23,165 per game
White Sox 1999 16,656 per game
White Sox 2000 24,047 per game
White Sox 2001 22,077 per game
The only really visible bump is the 3000 per game the Brewers picked up in 1975. The team actually regressed from 76 to 68 wins in 1975, but picked up attendance. But remember that comparing baseball attendance in the 1970′s and today is apples and oranges: no fanzones, no jumbotrons, maybe an organ between innings, tickets probably like five bucks. And the M’s are confronting economic times unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes.
Thus, I am not saying the M’s could expect a 3000 a game attendance bump. I am saying that Hank Aaron probably was largely responsible for one in 1975.
Your point abuot Aaron is well taken, and the lack of comparability noted. I will add that, as a life-long Brewers fan and a son and nephew of many Milwaukee Braves fans, I can attest that Hank Aaron meant A LOT MORE to Milwaukee than Griffey ever meant to Seattle.
“But remember that comparing baseball attendance in the 1970’s and today is apples and oranges: no fanzones, no jumbotrons, maybe an organ between innings, tickets probably like five bucks. And the M’s are confronting economic times unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes.”
What baseball in the 70s did have, though, was 10 cent beer night. Given these economic times, shouldn’t we bring it back. And by the 4th inning, no one will notice Griffey failing to catch up with a mediocre fastball. I would gladly accept the M’s signing Griffey if all beers were 10 cents for the 81 home games.
I just hope to god that Griffey does sign so everyone who is grumbling about this either has their two cent theories proven or disproven.
The buzz would happen, and ticket sales would go up, but by how much and how long would it last? One important thing to know would be how many tickets are purchased after a month of the season has gone by.
Beyond that, I don’t think you could really compare Boone to Griffey. Griffey made the Mariners relevant for the first time to a lot of people. Not to the hardcore fans, but certainly to a lot of kids in the 90s who have kids in the 00s (myself included). It really doesn’t matter how well he plays, he will sell tickets.
Of course that doesn’t mean he will win ballgames, but that wasn’t the topic…
Griffey didn’t make the Mariners relevant for the first time. The Mariners winning made the Mariners relevant for the first time.
As for bringing 10-cent beer night back, two-buck beer night is still a staple in the minor leagues. Hmm. Maybe the Portland Beavers should sign Griffey for $1M more than any major league team is apparently willing to sign him. Perhaps they would double attendance. Any Griffey fans willing to come see him play at PGE Park?
A lot of this involves speculation about where Griffey’s head is these days. If Z is really interested in Griffey, I assume he will (quietly) meet with Griffey somewhere, talk with him about what his expectations are, what his attitude is like, how he feels about playing part-time and DH’ing, etc. If he’s his old prima donna self in an old player’s body, I wouldn’t want any part of him. We don’t need the drama.
Steve Kelley can write an article about how Griffey is healthy now, when he really has no idea whether Griffey is healthy. I have to figure the Mariners won’t make this kind of decision without a thorough physical and some heart to heart conversations with him.
If he’s grown up as he’s grown older, and has the right attitude about his skills and his role, and he can pass a physical, I’m not totally against the idea of letting him retire as a Mariner.
huckleB, I totally disagree. Griffey made the Mariners relevant (at least to a certain degree) before 95. He was our first bona fide home grown star. He made highlight plays, started All Star games (even won the ASG MVP), he made the cover of Sports Illustrated, and had the 8 game streak with a home run that caused ESPN to make live look ins when nobody was doing that.
He was huge. HUGE.
I don’t want him to come back for exactly the reasons DMZ describes here – I want to remember him the way he was, not the way he is.
But to suggest he didn’t make the Mariners relevant is to be ignorant of what was going on in Seattle, and the nation.
What about if Griffey sucks
___________________________
Then he will fit in with the rest of the squad. Griffey is not Vidro. He has pride. If can’t compete he will retire. But he will retire as a Mariner…as it should be.
Derek – I know you are not a Griffey fan (“not formerly hugely beloved players who forced their way off the team to another league, after which some segment of the fanbase spent the time since making goo-goo eyes at them”) but do you really think that attendance would decline with Griffey in a Mariner uniform? I think your bias is clouding your view on this one.
dnc, Sorry, but Griffey wasn’t alone before ’95. To pretend otherwise is to relive something that never happened.
I never said he was alone.
He was far and away the face of the franchise though. The only person who could come close to that point was Randy, and he really didn’t start to emerge until 93. Edgar won the batting title in 92, and Buhner took a big step forward in 94.
But seriously, Griffey was IT. No one voted those other guys to start all star games or put them on covers of magazines, at least not right away. We can argue all day about player values and whose contributions were more important, but none of that mattered back then. PERCEPTION was that Griffey was far and away the best player on the team, and for a big chunk of 89-95, that perception was correct.
Griffey put us on the map, and that’s just being honest about how it went down, not “reliving something that never happened”.
Junior’s average of the four 2009 projection lines in Fangraphs (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver): 21hr, .253avg/.342obp/.444slg/.786ops.
Good or bad, worthless or valuable…thats up for debate. But with a line like that, can Junior keep from ‘hurting’ the team on the field just enough to bring closure to a generation of M’s fans? Would he be blatantly holding up the development of a youngster?
If so, more or less so than Branyan? Dollars-to-value wise, how much can the M’s afford to ‘err’ on either side? Do they shy away from Junior more than normal? Give him the benefit of a little doubt? Or does it all come down to cold, hard numbers? 100% emotional removal…with zero nostalgia, zero passion, zero storyline. Or is there a balance somewhere where emotion and reason can co-exist together…where BOTH can prosper?
So… if Griffey’s just going to retire if he realizes he’s not wanted, why didn’t he retire last year?
As for the injury thing, I don’t know what you guys want out of that. Old ballplayers get hurt, and have to nurse injuries that they got earlier in their careers. It’s a fact of life. Expecting Griffey not to be hurt is like expecting Rick Rizzs not to be boring. It’s just not going to happen.
dnc, No one player is “IT.” You are overplaying the reality, when there is no need to do so. Griffey was a big star, but his potential always was bigger than his reality, even in Seattle. Without Johnson and the others, Griffey would not have been as big as he was. You have to have the team to have a serious star. I think that’s what your assessment is missing.
Griffey was a serious star even when the team was terrible.
He transcended the team.
This whole debate started with you disagreeing with the statement that “Griffey made the Mariners relevant for the first time to a lot of people”. It may not be the way you remember it or wish to recall it, but that is exactly the way it happened, and the constant “Griffey to return?” hysteria is a result of that. He did, in fact, make the Mariners relevant for the first time to a lot of people.
LOL! No one transcends a horrible team. He, along with the others with potential, brought energy to the team because there was the hope of actually winning in the coming years. If he was alone, that energy would not have existed.
I’m in Portland, where the energy around the Blazers is much the same, but if Brandon Roy were on the court with a bunch of no-potential bums, no one here would give a rip.
The same would have been the case for the M’s of the early ’90s.
Junior’s average of the four 2009 projection lines in Fangraphs (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Oliver): 21hr, .253avg/.342obp/.444slg/.786ops.
… Is that the line of a $5M-$6M player (The amount Griffey is reported on seeking)
Wigginton’s average of the four 2009 projection lines in Fangraphs : 20hr, .270avg/ .334obp/ .467slg/ .801ops.
… He just signed a 2-year deal worth $3M a year!
I can’t help but think you were not a Mariner fan in 1989.
When Griffey was called up in 1989, he WAS alone. No one else on that squad had potential. Buhner was still toiling in the minors (and wasn’t highly thought of), Randy hadn’t yet been acquired, Omar was a rookie shortstop who posted a .534 OPS in the bigs, Edgar was a 26 year old third baseman who had yet to demonstrate that he could hit big league pitching and couldn’t generate any press or buzz (though he SHOULD have had a huge following), etc.
Seriously, the second most exciting player on that roster was probably Greg Briley.
That team finished 6th place for a reason. Sure, you could say that the educated baseball fan should have known that Edgar was an emerging star, but that’s kind of the point – there weren’t many educated baseball fans at all in Seattle in 1989. Seattle was football town of epic proportions back then.
Griffey made it worth getting to know the sport.
Never saw Griffey play in person – moved here in 2000 after falling in love with the M’s in ’94. I’d like that chance, to see him personally, even in a diminished-skills type of setting.
AND if the team can make enough extra money ($3-5 mil?) from increased ticket sales and turn-black-the-clock merchandise, it’s entirely possible that signing Junior could facilitate the dumping of Washburn, Batista or even (gasp!!) Silva. Now we’re not just talking nostalgia.
Do I prefer Swisher? Obviously. Otherwise, bring me Junior. Not Abreu, not Anderson, not Nick Johnson.
And yeah, I’d like the opportunity to take my 6-year-old son to the park so he can see Griffey play once in his life. I suspect there are many more dads like me out there thinking the same thing.
Um, er, that would be “turn-BACK-the-clock”… my bad.
Are you sure you didn’t mean turn-AHEAD-the-clock?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Turn_Ahead_the_Clock_Night
Numbers wise, Abreu would be a better fit but to make that happen another team would have to take some part of Wash/Silva/Batista.
Not going to happen.
My parents both grew up watching the Braves in Beertown with Aaron, Eddie Matthews, and Warren Spahn.
I grew up watching Griff make magic happen night after night on terrible Teams.
Why not?
Branyan and Clement are not cornerstones for the future. God forbid they’d have to give up a few DH ab’s. Griff is only going to play one or two more years and we are not going to contend for three.
Why not let some of us have our sentimental fun while the organization moves forward to contention?
If Griffey stinks it up, they’ll just have him pre-announce his retirement in August so they can milk the “See Griffey for the Last Time!” marketing gimmick for every last cent, just as they did with Edgar. And just like Edgar, we’ll have to deal with 18 standing ovations for Griffey every game until the end of the season.
My point exactly, Valle. If Pythag says the M’s will win between 75 and 80 games, then hurt Griffey will cost us a couple insignificant wins and healthy + somehwat productive Griffey just might help close the book, once and for all, on the 1995-2001 gloryish years. For me at least.
I am so tired of the “We need Junior here, he will…” (in no particular order)
1. set an example for the younger players
2. provide a locker room presence.
3. fill the seats because this team is going to lose 400 games this year.
I was on the road Friday and heard this on KJR for two hours, I almost lost my lunch.
Am I missing something? I remember the Junior years, he was a hell of a player, but he was often criticized because he was so good but rarely practiced hard or worked out in the off season, people said it would catch up to him (and it has, hell of an example for people like Clement who works like a maniac).
He was a jerk in the locker room, demanding special treatment and acting like a Diva (yeah, this really brings a group together).
As for attendance, well if the team stinks (I suspect this team won’t, it may not win 95, but it will be solid), Griffy won’t bring in anyone unless it is some special event. (Maybe a tribute to the steroid users of the 1995 team, starring A-Rod).
anyway, I am sick of the fans in this city latching on to the past at not looking to the future. We held on to those older players in 05-06 and ran the team into the ground, lets not do that again.
I just happen to think he’s the type of player we’re going to be able to get. We still need a DH, hopefully someone who is left handed. If we free up the money for Abreu or Dunn, then that is the route we should go. Griffey is a solid option at a lower price level, and I think he will be humble enough to accept that. If there are better options, I believe they’ll be explored, but it might just be the right match for the team and their salary constraints.
Now, the logical solution to your conundrum, skeets, is to turn down KJR real, real, low when that kind of talk comes up. And to NOT ascribe points 1. and 2. of that inane reasoning to folks on this board.
Cheers!
No offense, but somehow I doubt that many fans renewed their season tickets to see the “new direction” of the team after a 100-loss season and the economy being as unpredictable and down as it is.
I would think with a few exceptions, that the fans are going to stay home until the teams wins again. It’s the same way for just about any team in any sport.
I would also think that the ticket-buying population is going to realize really quick this isn’t going to be the Griffey they saw in ’99 when he left, so I wouldn’t expect a sell-out every single night.
And I also wouldn’t expect the attendance to go down just strictly because one player who has been stricken with many injuries in the last decade is going through the same old story again.
That is, unless we just have a lot of really dumb fans in this town that still don’t realize we won’t be getting the Griffey of old here.
Watch for attendance to jump though in August and/or September if and when Griffey makes the announcement that this year will be his last and people will buy their tickets to see him one last time as the Mariners wrap up a 70 to 75 win season (or whatever they’ll get) in a rebuilding year.
Swisher costs too much in a trade and Dunn is a strike out machine in the NL. Abreu already has an $8 mil per offer on the table.
Show me a better LH power bat, or for that matter RH, on the market that we can afford.
I don’t know, a lot of the comments on this post sortof remind me of things I’d hear on KJR.
I thought the subject of this post was how Griffey would affect attendance. It kinda reflects the haters that so many change the subject to his potential performance. WTF?
So HOW WOULD HE AFFECT ATTENDANCE?
I think he would boost attendance, and I don’t think it is wrong to admit that it would be a lot of fun to remember how much he meant back in the day. Out of a top ten Mariner memories, that guy has at least five. I there are others who feel that way, but don’t have thick enough skin to keep reading this site.
Anywho, I think the argument is trying to say that Griffey could actually prevent selling tickets… yeah, no. That doesn’t pass the sniff test.
This thread is Dave and Derek’s gift to opinionated Griffeycionados. We’ll get back to the regular nerdtalk on the next thread. Guaranteed.
I listened to the very first Seahawks exhibition game on the radio when Neil Graf was starting quarterback (first half, Jim Zorn played the second). I also followed the M’s from Day One (as much as anyone did since they largely sucked).
Yes, we won 76 or so games in 1982 and 78 or so in 1985 (might have that backwards). Yes, we had Alvin Davis and Mark Langston in 1984. We had Dick Williams as manager in 1986. Bill Caudill and the Rally Caps. Funny Nose Glasses Night.
None of that mattered until Junior. After he arrived, we also acquired his father to play alongside him. He was exciting. He lead the team to its FIRST WINNING SEASON in 1991. But he was alone. Think Michael Jordan BEFORE Pippen and Rodman.
Edgar won the batting title in our 64-win season in 1992. Then Tino came up, Randy and Buhner put it together, etc., etc.
But remember, Junior being out hurt from May to August of 1995 was the backdrop for Refuse To Lose. When he returned in late August, a team that had lead its division in May then faded came storming back. Junior was a HUGE part of that.
That 1995 team was so inspired people forget how bloody GOOD it was. But outside of Seattle, all ANYONE knew was Junior. (And Edgar won the batting title again that year too.)
To fiftyone:
AMEN BROTHER!!!
This is, perhaps, the funniest post I have ever seen on the site. To suggest that bringing Griffey in would actually hurt attendance, is both hilarious and saddening. I understand it as a good way to rile people up (like me), but as someone who would (i assume) like to be taken seriously as a sports writer…. you’ve missed big time.
Let’s look at those in favor of bringing Griffey back – the feel-good, fair-weather fans from the 90′s who remember the Kid; some guys named buhner, edgar, et al; some guy named Junior Griffey.
And all those opposed? The SABR sports-blogging, number crunching, hope-holding columnists who want THE BEST TEAM on the field for every pitch.
And the point of baseball? Is one of two things. Either it is a business to make money, or it is a game with the goal of winning the world series. One of these things can happen this year for this team, one can not. You decide.
But to even suggest that bringing this guy back would DETER people from coming to the park… asinine. and that’s obvious.
Getting back to the original idea of this thread, I don’t agree that Griffey could hurt attendance.
Even if Griffey being back doesn’t account for much of a spike in attendance, I don’t see people not coming to the games later in the season because Griffey is a shell of his former self.
What will determine whether people come later in the year or not is if the team is good or not. If the team sucks attendance will drop and if the team is good attendance should be good.
But my personal opinion is that Griffey will help attendance initially and once the novelty of his return wears off then attendance will be largely based on whether the team is somewhat in the divisional race.
What milestones does he have left? Mays looks out of reach. If he were close enough to Mays it would have been done by now. We are talking about a first ballot HOF player who will go into the hall as a Mariner. If the price is right and expectations are managed, bring him on.
hey all. in doing a random search of griffey + ichiro i found a video from 1995 when griffey jr and sr met with ichiro and had a (slightly awkward) interview/cultural exchange.
check it out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ppb0libuNVw
the griffey return is the hottest hot stove issue for the M’s, and i understand both sides of the argument. ussm is probably right that there are better alternatives out there. i also agree that if griffey comes back and is injured and plays poorly then it will probably hurt the team and do harm to the “griffey in a mariners uniform” legacy. but growing up in pennsylvania, jr. was the reason why i became a m’s fan.
like many others, i hate a-rod but still respect griffey. griffey did demand a trade and muscle his way out of seattle, but he didnt do it for the money. he did it for family and for a chance to play in the city he grew up in. i cant blame a-rod for taking the biggest contract. it was his right to do so. but to go for the money, and then spew that crap about wanting to play for a contender–that was unforgivable. i hope griffey does return and hits 30+ home runs as dh/part time LF. an injury riddled, strike out filled disaster of a season may be more likely, but for me its worth the risk to once again see that sweet left handed swing in the house that junior built.
For a cite that requires its readers to back up their arguments with as many facts as possible I find this argument beyond flimsy.
What is even stranger is that most people at this cite consider the “normal” Mariner fan to be one of those people who like the less important parts of the game (hydro races and dancing grounds keepers)…unless Griffey is remarkably horrible I do not see any way that this has a negative effect on attendance.
The argument that he will have minimal effect on attendance is a tiny bit reasonable. But, come on now…you are honestly going to argue that people are going to stay away from Safeco cause he is playing here?
That is flat out stupid.
In summary….a shockingly bad opinion article…based on weak premises…this is no better then the Steve Kelley article arguing the opposite.
People talk about him bring 1-5k fans more per game, which is insane. I think any single game with Griffey would sell out. He could draw an extra 25k against the Royals on a Thursday with the team out of contention.
For one game.
He could probably sell out a week of home games, at most two. If you want to put people in the seats the plans I’ve seen here make sense…sign him for next to nothing for the last month or two of the season when we’re out of it. Attendance is going to suck anyway, and people will pay to see him one final time in the last few weeks.
Not just bad, but shockingly bad!
You’re moving up in the world, Derek.
What is even stranger is that most people at this cite [sic] consider the “normal†Mariner fan to be one of those people who like the less important parts of the game (hydro races and dancing grounds keepers)…unless Griffey is remarkably horrible I do not see any way that this has a negative effect on attendance.
But he will be horrible. If he’s playing the outfield he will be as bad as Al Martin. If he’s playing DH he will be completely screwing up young player development. Maybe fans will overlook it, but he will do nothing but hurt the team, even when healthy.
- I’m assuming this is comment is being made in sarcasm. Not sure why though. I don’t think that signing Griffey is a good idea and I don’t really think it will effect attendance except for a few “tribute games”. However, to say that people who would normally buy tickets are going to choose to NOT buy tickets simply cause of Junior in the outfield doesn’t make any sense whatsoever…none at all…
- He might be horrible…he might be the worst player to ever play the game of baseball next year. But, are you really going to argue that some guy is gonna sit at home and have this conversation:
“Hey…I’m bored and I don’t have much to do today. I know…I’ll go to the Mariners game! Wait a second, Ken Griffey Jr. is still playing. I think I’ll just skip the game.”
That is just ludicrous. You can easily argue that he might have zero effect on attendance. But, a negative effect??? C’mon now…
This is the disconnect I see:
Certain people think that signing Griffey will increase attendance cause certain people will want to go see the old guy play.
The old guy sucks and so some of those certain people who only wanted to come to see the old guy play will decide it isn’t worth the money to go see him play.
This is NOT a negative effect on attendance. You are just aruging that Griffey will not have a positive effect on attendance. The people who were only going to go if Griffey was good do not count as people to “assume” in the yearly attendance figures.
But, come on now…you are honestly going to argue that people are going to stay away from Safeco cause he is playing here?
If it was poor performance + a bad year for the team, in part because Griffey is a cross between Barry Bonds’ charm and Carl Everett’s performance… Derek’s scenario isn’t unreasonable.
That is just ludicrous. You can easily argue that he might have zero effect on attendance. But, a negative effect??? C’mon now…
I think it’s possible. This is a team that could go on a tear and make the playoffs. We’re picking up scrapheap guys with potential. One or two of them pulls a Boone, a couple guys have 25% years, and suddenly we’re in the playoffs. Hell, if Felix pitches to his potential and Bedard stops losing pieces on the monorail…they could be talking about the Mariners being unstoppable in the playoffs due to the 1-2 punch.
If we throw out an animated corpse it hurts that chance. And if he’s in the outfield we negate the opportunity we have to flip middling relievers for something shiny due to an unsustainable ERA. I don’t think it’s likely he’ll hurt attendance, but it’s possible.
You guys are absolutely not making the same argument…DMZ says:
There is nothing in the entire article that says that he would effect attendance cause his negative performance would bring the team down from winning and therefore selling tickets to bandwagon fans who just want to see a winner.
He specifically points out that his argument is that certain people will not want to see a secondary version of the guy in their memory.
Don’t try and convert this into an entirely different argument. You guys are trying to argue his merit towards the performance of the team. That is not the same as arguing his merit purely towards the attenadce level of the team.
It is highly unlikely that people who are already planning on attending a Mariners game to chose not to attend the game simply because Griffey is no longer the player he once was…
- So, in the absolute worst of the worst case scenarios Griffey might cause someone people not to attend games? Again, you think that the people who attended games last year are going to purposely not attend games because of Griffey?
It is just not a likely scenario. Like I said, it is also unlikely that people are going to come out in droves to watch him play. In the end he would most likely have a minimal net positive effect.
But he isn’t going to somehow push the existing fanbase away.
I was actually thinking the same thing a month or so ago, due to something my husband said. I’d actually feel really sorry for fans that came out expecting to see greatness, and were then let down; I’m glad to see someone actually bring up this topic in earnest. Having never seen Griffey play in his prime, I think it’d be great if he was good and came back, but there is the chance that he won’t be, and that would just be disappointing.
But he isn’t going to somehow push the existing fanbase away.
Think Nureyev, in his prime, with a broken leg. People are stupid enough that short term he would draw…but people recognize shit quickly. The team needs to transform itself fast, because attendance is just going to drop until they pull it together.
Another area I would agree is that the extra fans are most likley cheap fans who will buy cheap tickets. Since they are only coming to see Griffey and not really support the Mariners the probably are not going to appear in the Diamond Club
Therefore, when projecting the minimal ticket increase it should be based on the average of the 300 lvl seating…
If I was going to make one response to all of this, I’d say this: Everyone arguing in favor of signing Griffey because they think he’ll increase attendance is making a statement that they know and can reliably predict the emotional reactions of vast numbers of people. I think that’s folly. We should at the very least acknowledge that we don’t know how people will react to future events, and if we’re going to make arguments based on predicting the emotions and subsequent actions of all of these people we should consider that things may not go as swimmingly as possible.
As far as I can tell there are three groups that really want Jr back:
1)sportswriters (it would be like getting to take a season long working vacation),
2) Jr haters-they’ll get to revel in his shell,
3) people wanting something to stick it to the stat geeks though for the life of me I can’t see the end game for that crowd in this issue.
How did his chase for 600 work out for Cincy’s gate last season?
Actually how did Jr work out for Cincy’s gate period?
Those using the attendance argument might start there before extrapolating Jr’s magical homecoming weekend in Seattle to a full season.
Here’s the other potential attendance/image issue for the team: let’s say things go well for the team – they’re competitive in a weak AL West, but Griffey himself is having the kind of year he’s most likely to produce – not absolutely terrible, but not productive, especially at DH. How badly will it fracture the fanbase if the team decides to cut his playing time: many people are going to be arguing about “recapturing 1995,” and all that. Even if Griffey represented a short-term attendance boost, the only way to do it longterm is to win games.
I remember 1989-August 1995. Even though Griffey created a lot of new baseball fans, he didn’t exactly send attendance through the roof, and that was when he was considered arguably the best player in the league. Through 1995, the M’s were never in the top half of the AL in attendance: since, they’ve never been out of it.
Everyone would love to see the Griffey of old come back. I just think there are a fair number of people out there who don’t realize just how much his skills have eroded, and it’s going to be a bit of an unpleasant shock when that sinks in – it would be a shame if that overshadowed what is otherwise a fairly interesting team.
Junior is on MLB Network as we speak (Sunday, 12pm EST).
The thing that’s really odd about the “business case” argument (ie Griffey will bring in more income than he’ll cost and/or will revive fan interest and improve attendance in the long run) is that the people making it with the most passion seem to be many of the same people who don’t want to entertain business case arguments for any other decision regarding the team. It just so happens that this time the dollars-and-numbers angle seems to align with their emotions so they’ll embrace it. But counter-arguments on the same basis (cheaper and/or better players will help win more games, which will improve attendance in the long run) don’t interest them.
Well, I guess that isn’t so odd. We’re talking about sentiment here. It’s “intangibles” and WFB all over again.
I tend to agree with Derek on this. He’s not even claiming that attendance will definitely drop due to Griffey–he’s just saying that it’s possible. I think it’s a pretty straightforward argument, too. If Griffey is bad (and there is a pretty good chance of this), then it becomes a negative story, and negative press hurts attendance.
Yes, there are the nostalgics who will come to see Griffey no matter what, but I think there are a lot more casual fans who aren’t fixated on Griffey–fans who are interested in what the Mariners have done for them lately. If those casual fans hear positive stories about the team, they are more likely to come, and if they hear negative stories about the team, they are less likely to come.
Griffey could very well be a negative story and it’s not difficult to see that hurting attendance, at least within a segment of the casual fan base.
How did his chase for 600 work out for Cincy’s gate last season?
Actually how did Jr work out for Cincy’s gate period?
Those using the attendance argument might start there before extrapolating Jr’s magical homecoming weekend in Seattle to a full season.
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A little flaw in your reasoning. Cincy fans don’t exactly have fond memories of the Ken Griffey Junior days…the Ken Griffey Sr. days were good…but not so much with Junior.
I tend to agree with Derek on this.
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Wow…really? Have you ever disagreed with Derek?
is that the people making it with the most passion seem to be many of the same people who don’t want to entertain business case arguments for any other decision regarding the team.
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Ready and willing to “enterain business case arguments”. Anything specific? mmmm…still waiting….
We’ve been pretty hands-off in this comment thread, but if people can’t keep it civil, that will come to an end.
Also, it’s not necessary to make a separate comment for every line of someone else’s comment that you want to address.
IMO, the probability of Griffey coming back and having a negative impact on attendance is equivalent to the probability of Griffey coming back and having a good season.
“Everyone would love to see the Griffey of old come back. I just think there are a fair number of people out there who don’t realize just how much his skills have eroded, and it’s going to be a bit of an unpleasant shock when that sinks in – it would be a shame if that overshadowed what is otherwise a fairly interesting team.”
my sentiments exactly. I don’t think it’s a very flattering commentary on Seattle Mariner fandom that there’s a significant number of fans who would rather watch a 70 win team with Griffey hogging the spotlight than a 70 win team with upside. It’s pure homeristic nostalgia, nothing more.
Seattle fans often like to cite East Coast bias. That sports media cognoscenti often make claims biased against Seattle teams because they never watch them play regularly. I’m not disagreeing that phenomenon exists, but stick with me.
I would be willing to bet that most of the same people clamoring for Griffey both on KJR and off have watched Jr. a grand total of one game or less in the last five years, excluding the Reds series at the Safe last year. They’re patently clueless about Griffey’s actual ability to play the game right now and are projecting things like leadership ability, locker room presence, etc onto him that have no basis in reality. So in many ways I see people suffering from Seattle Homer bias when it comes to all things Jr.
I know it’s illogical, but color me as one of those who’d like Griffey back. I’ve seen the projections and know he probably won’t be particularly valuable. Part of me still thinks that despite all statistical evidence to the contrary, Griffey would do better significantly than projected. And I think this illogical gut feeling is the basis for most of those who want him back.
I think if he’d take a contract where he understands he’ll almost exclusively DH, with lots of platooning, etc. Give him a low base contract say 500-750k with lots of fat incentives (1mm for 30 HRs, etc), then I think it makes sense for the team and the fans.
Doesn’t look like he has any other options, so why not.
So if you want Griffey back and retire in a Mariners uniform you haven’t been watching baseball for the last 10 years and are “patiently clueless”.
Are you really that excited about watching Endy Chavez on a daily basis? You think he might be able to crack the 2 HR barrier this year?
Hub your first post sums up my feelings pretty much exactly. Those projections really are not THAT bad, so I think there is definitely a case to bring him in based on those numbers as a DH/part time DH for very cheap.
I was only 2 years old when Griffey came up in 1989, but I know, for a fact, that if Griffey was not the only thing that put the Mariners on the map, he was by far the biggest. 95 took it to a new level, sure, but people knew the Mariners only because they knew Griffey up until then.
God I wish this talk would end. I am so unbelievably sick of it. I love him as much as the next guy/he’s my childhood baseball hero/all that stuff, but seriously. He’s not gonna bring back the few hundred thousand fans that we will invariably lose this year due to our extreme sucktitude last year.
Wow…really? Have you ever disagreed with Derek?
I have in fact disagreed with Derek in the past even though our opinions are often similar.
The debate about getting Griffey back has been going on for years and seems to be peaking right now with his availability and apparent interest in returning for a swan song. Any decision to re-sign him should ultimately be “mostly” a baseball decision. Is he healthy? Is he still capable of putting up numbers comparable to 2007? Is he willing to accept a role that’s best for the team (such as playing DH most of the time)? Is there a better player out there, that we legitimately have a shot at, that’s available? Would he be taking significant playing time away from some prospect that’s part of our future? If the answers are yes, yes, yes, no and no then sign him. If not, then pass.
Notice I said the decision should be “mostly” a baseball decision. It’s impossible to take emotion out of the equation. This is true of all sports. Professional sports is ultimately just a segment of the entertainment business. Fans get emotionally attached to players and that’s one of the reasons they buy tickets. There’s little doubt in my mind that there will be people that will come out to see Griffey but not Garrett Anderson. I don’t know how many but there will be some. If everything’s the same, bring in the guy that people want to see. That’s just good business. If he can’t contribute anymore then don’t sign him just because he’s Griffey. But if he can, and he’s the best option available, don’t pass him up just because he’s not the same player who left here ten years ago. Besides, if you don’t let him play the field much, which would keep him healthy, I’d happily take 30 bombs and 94 RBI’s from the DH spot.
AKMariner, could you learn to use the blockquote tag? It’s a simple courtesy and it’s not that hard. There’s even a button there to make it easy for you.
Frankly, yes. Home runs are boring. I’d prefer to watch an exciting catch at the wall, or a diving catch in the field, to any HR. Triples are better than home runs; doubles are too when they aren’t the “stand up” kind. Double-plays are more exciting than home runs (when it’s your team doing the fielding). Outfield assists are more exciting than home runs. Home runs are boring. And a run saved is as good as a run earned, so as long as Endy is sucking down the flyballs out there I don’t care how many HRs he doesn’t hit.
Are you really that excited about watching Endy Chavez on a daily basis? You think he might be able to crack the 2 HR barrier this year?
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Am I more excited about watching Mr Chavez glide through left field, benefiting our pitchers every day, vastly improving an outfield defense in a home park that demands the highest caliber of outfielders… or watching a ghost of a shell of a HOFer taint the memory of his run in this town?
If you really are a fan of the M’s upward movement, your argument has come to an End(y).
Considering this team, Chavez’s glove everyday is far more valuable than KGJr at DH… and god forbid he actually sets foot in LF. Why block progress when the only real way to sustain ticket sales is by actually winning?
Run through the batting order as it stands right now. How many guys fit in the 7-9 positions?
For those of you who love defense you are going to get to see a lot of it, since the Mariners will be spending a lot of time in the field this year.
Those who argue Jr is a lock to draw also forget that there is a significant portion of the fan base who remember that Jr demanded to be traded and essentially held the Ms hostage.
Frankly yes. Whether or not Jr would be signed likely has little effect on how Chavez will be used anyway.
To say that attendance will drop just isn’t a very intelligent statement, sorry. However, it’s also not an intelligent statement to say it will dramatically go up as some suggest. We’re going to suck again next year – lose roughly 85-90 games so our attendance will avg again something around 25k or so. IF we sign Griff, and I think it’s a big IF or else we would have done so already, he will increase sales by maybe 1-3k/game and that’s it. It’s not as though we’ll somehow start drawing over 30k/game or more JUST because Griff is there.
It will be hard to figure his exact effect though due to the economic times we got now. I’m sure attendance will drop at every stadium this year. Its been said in many papers many times over the years just how expensive it is to take a family of 4 to a game, get food, and buy whatever else. It basically said to take a fam of 4 to a game and enjoy it they would spend anywhere between 100-200 easy. I can see a lot of family’s skipping that one game this year.
My point being either way it could be hard to predict what Griff would do but all things being equal I think it’s safe to say that at the very least he would create a modest 1-3k bump in attendance should he sign here. If the team also somehow turns out not too bad then people will pay to come see a winner and that also would make any analysis of Griff’s impact on sales impossible to figure.
I’m getting the impression that you don’t understand the rules of baseball.
“So if you want Griffey back and retire in a Mariners uniform you haven’t been watching baseball for the last 10 years and are “patiently cluelessâ€.”
It’s patently, but whatever … the real question is when was the last full game you saw Griffey play before the series last year at the Safe?
And yeah, I’d rather see Endy Chavez than Junior in center field, no question. Because there’s a better than average chance that 30 games might be all you get out of Griffey, and Chavez actually gives you a chance to win defensively.
Who is talking about Griffey playing Center? 30 games…where do you get that number? He has been realtively healthy the last few years, it would be reasonable to expect him to to continue to be healthy with splitting time between LF and DH. The question is does he still have enough bat speed to be productive at Safeco. If he does he will be asset to the the team, if he doesn’t he retires. I would bet (and no I don’t have emperical evidence) that he would accept a below markert value contract to return to Seattle. Again, what do we really have to lose?
You bet on the Cardinals and Rays, too I’d gather… but then again I have no empirical evidence to back that up.
I think it would be easier for AKMarinersFan to understand it by looking at KGJr as if he were Santa Claus:
The person you are expecting is imaginary, based mostly off of an individual from the past and the reverberations of his legend as the years past his top performance roll on.
The reality, however is that the parents have to stock the tree with cheap and hopefully effective goods.
AK, go ahead and hope Santa is real.
I, however, am going to put my wish list in to my ‘rents and one of the items is going to be a kick a$$ outfielder’s glove.
Another point that might make it through the rose-colored glasses; Just take a second to think about how many baseball games have been won WITHOUT a homerun. Staggering, no?
Why not Jr? There are at least 4-5 better options available for the role he’d fill with the Ms.
No he hasn’t. He just had knee surgery for goodness sake. And if Jr. is to be a plus AT ALL to any given team, playing the field is out of the question.
With Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn floating around out there, I think we’d be doing ourselves a disservice to settle for Ken Griffey Jr. (I realize the former two are a bit more expensive and probably out of our reach, but while they remain unsigned, why go for the ancient alternative..)
Derek, I think, was trying to make the arguement up above that it may not turn out to be the win-win situation that it appears to be to some people in terms of a boost in ticket sales, fond farewells and overall performance and attitude. In his scenario, however unlikely, there is indeed something to lose.
Now don’t get me wrong, I am a HUGE Junior fan, and if he does come back, I WILL be excited to see him in a M’s uniform again, but both USSM and LL have been over the numbers and it’s not really all that great. I’m sure Z is working the phones even as we speak to pry some cheap, productive bat from another team…Jr. looks like the last resort, as he should be. There are simply people out there who are younger, possibly cheaper and verifiably more skilled at this point in their respective careers who are attainable.
Jr. may end up being our “best” choice…but why jump the gun?
OK, I’ve heard enough. Thanks for playing, we’ll have some lovely parting gifts for you.
There is always a market for nostalgia look no further then VH1 who programs there entire lineup around stars who are no longer relevent but were big in there time…. Also if you take a look at pro wrestling hulk hogan continues to be a draw in that sport despite being well past his prime. I think attendance would spike if he came back because alot of kids from the 90′s that saw griffey when he was great might want to bring there kids to see a legened on his last stand.
According to Jr’s agent, Jr had no business playing last season.
Funny how the injury thing works both ways.
Wouldn’t Griffey be the 1st Home Grown Mariner in the Hall of Fame? I bet he hits at least 25 HRs with 75 RBI’s and with the tickets he would sell–people are exactly lining up to see a 100 loss team. It is a no-brainer as far as I’m concerned. If King Felix goes on to have a Hall of Fame career, leaves that wants to come back and retire a Mariner, and might only win 10-12 games for you would you want him back then?
It is hopeless to discuss this issue with people who think that Endy Chavez is going to be a positive contributor as a starting outfielder.
Guys these are professional athletes….they have surgeries all the time. Having arthroscopic surgery to repair meniscus is about as minor as it gets. I have it done on both my knees and was playing ball in a matter of weeks.
I find it ironic that Endy Chavez has missed more games due to injury during the past three years than Griffey has.
One could also say that it’s hopeless to discuss this issue with people who very clearly don’t understand the value of run prevention in winning baseball games.
But that’d probably be unfair.
I know hope that he is signed, just to see how it plays out.
While putting up a 650 OPS+ or something @ DH? No thanks.
I’ve got an idea. Let’s do what the Niners did with Rice. Sign him for one day (last day of the season or something) and trot him out there. Of course, provided the M’s aren’t trying to win that game for the playoffs.
I don’t have statistics or philosophies to back me up, but if Griffey were to sign with Seattle for ’09 you better believe I’ll be there at least three games during the year. I live in Walla Walla; to make the trip to Seattle is not an inexpensive proposition, so I haven’t attended more than one game per season since the late ’90s. Griffey’s rookie year was the year I saw my first Mariners game, so to also be able to see him in his last year would really be great.
The Mariners would not lose any attendance with me. They would gain.
Considering that Chavez has been considerably more valuable than Jr over the last three seasons, I’d say it’s hopeless to discuss this issue with people who think that Jr is going to be a more positive contributor than Endy Chavez as a starter….
Perhaps this is part of the disconnect. I was a huge M’s long before Griffey showed up at Bellingham, even. So, for some of you your love of the Mariner’s is forever linked with your love of Jr. Some us either, a) were M’s fans before Griffey showed up, b) are able to seperate our love of Jr from our love of what’s best for the M’s or c) both.
Galaxieboi: I can totally understand your perspective. But are you saying you would attend fewer games if Griffey is re-signed?
No, I’d probably attend the same amount, if I wasn’t living in Denver now. That said, I’m a fairly rabid baseball fan who’ll sit through several hours of watching t-ballers play because I happened to be walking by the ballfield on a saturday with my dog…
Oh, and Spike Owen is my favorite Mariner ever. There, I said it.
Good stuff, galaxieboi. I think DMZ is conjuring up a worst-case-scenario, wherein people react negatively to Griffey’s presence and refuse to purchase tickets in protest. I just cannot see that occurring. I believe there are more folks like me who would love to pay their respects to their first boyhood MLB hero, and would attend more games even if Griffey were to struggle in Seattle.
[ot]
Derek makes an excellent point in his piece. All everyone talks about is how grand it’d be to have Junior back with his smiling face and his backwards ballcap.
I remember an interview where Griffey was upset one game when there were more Alex signs than Junior signs in the ballpark. That, to me, is also a part of Griffey’s legacy. Did anyone see how suprised he was that everyone was so happy to see him? That too speaks volumes.
If Griffey signs with the M’s, gets dumped on the bench and the team does a total nose-dive it’s gonna get really ugly, really quick. And people will stay away. IMHO, of course.
Considering that Chavez has been considerably more valuable than Jr over the last three seasons
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What possible obscure metric are you basing that on? You guys must be crammed into that dark basement…
and the team does a total nose-dive
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Its hard to do a total nose-dive when you are in last place…
In the spirit of not feeding the trolls, I vow not to and hope others do the same.
You guys seem to be so worried about Griffey setting back the Mariners. You are talking about a team that got nosed out of the worse record in MLB last year. A team that has made very minor player moves to this point. A team that isn’t full of players that are expected to suddenly have career performances next year. A team that unless they make antoher move, is likely to start Endy Chavez next year.
I think your worries are a bit overstated.
Seriously, other than for comedic amusement why is this guy not been deleted yet? I enjoy it when people come here and challenge us with some good reasoning, but hurling insults is just bad pool.
Galaxieboi: “If Griffey signs with the M’s, gets dumped on the bench and the team does a total nose-dive it’s gonna get really ugly, really quick. And people will stay away. IMHO, of course.”
Sure, but as I noted, that’s the worst-case scenario. However it still would not prevent me from making the trip to see him.
That being said, if the FO and coaching staff are on-board with a Griffey pickup, and here were to struggle, I highly doubt they’d be willing to let him languish on the bench. It would be tough to see him founder out there day after day, a la Edgar in his final season, but the team would’ve chosen PR over better play, and they’d have to live with that.
Despite what I’ve said about wanting to see him in Seattle once again, for the sake of all concerned, I hope they ultimately just say NO to Griffey. I think a September waiver-deal, like what they did for his Dad, would be ideal for everyone.
Every so often Derek indulges the dark side with a post that invites this kind of discussion, and we all get to wade through the shallow end of the pool that is the normal mudbath for KJR callers and PI forum denizens, stagnant and addled, and we all are reminded why we are grateful for the deep, clear refuge of USSM. Sometimes it’s a steroids post, sometimes it’s a Griffey post. And we haven’t had WFB or Ibanez to kick around any more, so….
Anyway, it’s early February and cabin fever is at its peak as we wait for “pitchers and catchers” (and the WBC). I expect this whole weekend was a kind of intellectual colonic for him and the site, and we’ll be back to normal sanity, spa-fresh and cognitively cleansed, with the new week.
At least, that’s what I’m hoping….
[your act has gotten old; contribute something to the conversation without insulting others or stop commenting]
That made me laugh. Really hard.
I think it is completely reasonable to think that Griffey could result in lost revenue. Likely? Maybe not, but like DMZ pointed out, if he is just a shell, people are going to be heartbroken, and that is just as strong of an emotion as nostalgia.
I’m 37 years old now, and have been a fan since 17. And one lone thing got me started loving this game.
Junior.
That being so said, I don’t want him back. I have a sentimental side, and I admit seeing #24 again would tug at some heartstrings. But, I don’t think- or pay money- with my heartstrings. And I know that Ken Griffey, Jr. as a player in 2009 has very little else to give my team or to the game.
In my perfect world, he hangs them up. Now. He takes his numbers, and his rightful place in the Hall of Fame- right after he sees #24 retired on Opening Day in Seattle. I want to get older and have him be like our Ted Williams- old coots who actually saw him debating about how much better his numbers would have been if not for this, that and the other.
I saw him at least two dozen times, one game I was at in particular in 1994 sticks out- he hit two home runs against the Yankees (prompting a brawl in the Yankees dugout after the second one) and then made an unreal catch against the centerfield wall that I thought for sure was a home run.
And when I saw him that game, I’m 22 years old thinking “Someday I’ll tell my kids and grandkids I saw that performance for myself. Someday they’ll ask me how good he was and I’ll tell them ‘If you saw him at his peak, you’d never forget him’.”
I want to keep those and other memories where they are.
I want to remember how graceful, how easy he made a difficult game look without being encumbered by juxtaposed memories of a past-his-prime hitter trying for just a little more time in the sun.
Maybe that’s me being selfish- wanting to avoid any chance at seeing cruel reality manifest itself. But that’s what I’m thinking. If Griffey suits up for the M’s in 2009, I’m sure there’ll be a brief flurry of attendance…but me, I won’t spend any more money than what I normally would.
While I’m not sure if Griffey would hurt attendance, I really don’t think he’d markedly help it.
I can say I’m way more interested to see if Balentien (like Buhner before him) ever lays off 59-foot sliders, if Clement can catch, and further down the line…if Carlos Triunfel,Greg Halman and Adam Moore will be the next great right-handed hitters in Mariner history.
Nostalgia is like vanilla extract- small doses only if you’re going to indulge.
Which proves that Derek’s point that we cannot
applies to both sides of the argument.
Well, if they trot Griffey’s remains out to do a dog and pony show for exactly the sort of fans that have helped hold the team back the last few years, I know I’ll go to less games than I would otherwise.
So there’s at least one ticket sale that Griffey would cost.
Real fans want their team to win now and in the future, not endlessly relive a past that wasn’t even really all that great.
real fans also wouldn’t want their team to trot out a bunch of defensive specialists who can’t hit the ball to save their life all in the name of run prevention but that doesn’t stop some.
What if aliens came down and kidnapped Ichiro…..Or what if Felix decides he wants to be a priest and retires ….what if,…what if,….what if,….
I guess if you have to write about a downside of actually selling tickets this year…this is the way to do it. So “what if” Griffey is actually good!? Just throwing it out there. Anybody bother to actually go back and look how he’s done any year after coming off an injury?…… I think it might calm people down a bit…..
Jeff: Real fans want their team to win now and in the future, not endlessly relive a past that wasn’t even really all that great.
You know, I really enjoy reading this site, learning about valuable metrics for gauging the game to which I’ve generally never been exposed by the MSM. But elitist attitudes like this are a real turn-off. Who is anyone to say what a “real fan” is? Just because someone wants to relive their boyhood by watching Junior play in a Mariners uniform for one more go-around they’re not a “real fan?” Good gracious!
And I recall 1995/’97 as being a pretty great piece of the past, don’t you?
Those of us who don’t want to see Griffey signed when there’s no case to be made that he’ll help the team win baseball games (no, really, there isn’t) have spent this entire weekend having our fandom called into question by random passerby.
If wanting to see the Mariners concentrate on putting the best possible team on the field, now and in the future, makes me an elitist, I guess I’m an elitist.
Whatever sepia-toned memories people have about Griffey, he’s not that player anymore. If the team wants to bring him back for a one-day contract at the end of the season and let him get a token at-bat, that’s fine; but there are many, many better options out there for the DH spot, and in a weak division with a good amount of potential upside on the roster, they can’t afford to throw away at-bats on a player who isn’t going to help them win just to let people “relive their boyhood”.
Edgar in 2004 is the only apt comparison for Junior potentially coming back for 2009 season. Boone was a Mariner for only 4 full seasons, and was never the face for the franchise. It would be hard to evaluate Edgar’s impact on any 04 attendence figures because of Ichrio’s record setting year going on at the same time.
It all hinges on Kenji for me. In my view, if the Mariners plan on Clement being the starting catcher with Johjima as the backup, then if the price is right go ahead and bring back Junior. If they are going to honor Kenji’s contract and give him plenty ABs as catcher, while Clement plays mostly DH, then don’t sign Junior. Where does Sweeney fit into all of this?
Also, consider this: if signing an over the hill Griffey to a one year deal doesn’t improve us in the long run, how would signing anybody else to a one year deal help us in the long run?
For those who really think it necessary to pick up a
washed-up old geezer, excuse me, “veteran left-handed bat” for the lineup, you might as well try to go get a guy like Matt Stairs. Not that he’s exactly great and grand these days, but: (1) you could get him for a hell of a lot less than you’d have to pay Griffey, and (2) at least if he fell flat on his face, you wouldn’t constantly be reminded of how great he was “back in the day”.Jeff: # Those of us who don’t want to see Griffey signed when there’s no case to be made that he’ll help the team win baseball games (no, really, there isn’t) have spent this entire weekend having our fandom called into question by random passerby.
If wanting to see the Mariners concentrate on putting the best possible team on the field, now and in the future, makes me an elitist, I guess I’m an elitist.
Whatever sepia-toned memories people have about Griffey, he’s not that player anymore. If the team wants to bring him back for a one-day contract at the end of the season and let him get a token at-bat, that’s fine; but there are many, many better options out there for the DH spot, and in a weak division with a good amount of potential upside on the roster, they can’t afford to throw away at-bats on a player who isn’t going to help them win just to let people “relive their boyhoodâ€.
I totally agree, Jeff. I wouldn’t like to see Griffey signed for all of 2009, but I would love it he were to be obtained on the cheap in September to give fans a month of reminiscing. I don’t expect the team to be in contention at that point, so it really wouldn’t matter whether or not he helped them win. If they are in contention, then a one-day contract may have to be the way to go.
The “elitist” comment was in regards to your definition of a “real fan,” and how anyone who doesn’t match that criteria must not be one. Sports can be many things to many people; it’s a fan’s personal relationship with a team that defines their fanhood, not what other people them it should be.
“not what other people tell them it should be.”
(Darn clients interrupting my editing time!)
(note to reader….for a condensed version of my points, see the numbered points at the bottom of this post)
Ok, so let me preface this by saying that I’m a big Griffey fan, started to love the Mariners at the age of 9 back in ’94 largely because of Jr, and I will, in no way, claim that everything I’m about to say here is completely unbiased. The problem is that while my argument may dwell a bit in the “pro-grif” corner, this original article dwells a bit too much in a griffey doomsday scenario.
First off, I think it’s fairly clear that the overall sentiment towards Griffey is that the majority of the Mariner fanbase wants this guy back in blue and teal. This is independent of what he may or may not do on the field, what kind of team the M’s will have, etc etc. So, even if the argument of ticket sales not being helped by this guy after the first month or so of the season, that’s still a lot more gate receipts, and in this current economy, every seat that’s occupied at any game counts. That’s not even taking into account the rest of the season, which I think would receive a boost in attendance as well…but we’ll leave it at that. Bottom line, the beginning of the season will bring much more revenue in than it would otherwise without Junior Griffey.
Second, while I applaud the admission that the analogous arguments between Gaylord and Rickey Henderson don’t completely fit…I would argue that the argument is so extreme it does not even belong in the discussion. I’m sorry, but the 1990′s mariners were the golden years for probably 99% of us, and Griffey is cornerstone #1 of that era, not Gaylord Perry, who was in Seattle at a time when next to no one cared about the M’s. Do we all have “countless gaylord perry memories?” I mean, really…do we? Not to the extent that we do Griffey. Rickey Henderson??? He never was “our” star, and if Griffey was just a random first ballot HOF’er looking to finish his career in Seattle, I couldn’t care less if they’d sign that guy. Not all first ballot HOF’ers are created equal….not when one held our collective minds and hearts on a nightly basis for ten years and one was maybe one step above Goose Gossage’ final voyage aboard the good ship Mariner, and that’s only because Rickey played on a winning M’s squad.
Edgar? The guy is beloved, no doubt about that, but even with his massively slipping production towards the end of his career….has Edgar’s legacy inside of M’s fans hearts been hurt at all? When you think of Edgar Martinez are you just as likely to think about his decline as you are “The Double?” Maybe I don’t have a critical enough eye, but Edgar’s diminishing skills toward the end did nothing to taint his Mariner legacy or the memories I have of his hitting….which leads me to my next point….
This article is written in a way that it seems a foregone conclusion that M’s fans have their collective blinders on and not only hope, but halfway expect the Griffey of old to come walking through the door. Anyone that i’ve talked to and the comments i’ve read on the countless articles written about this subject all seem to point to those who want Griffey back in a Mariner uniform completely understanding that they’re not receiving 50+ HR’s and a guy who will continue to crash into outfield walls a few times a week for highlight reel catches. Some of us may have our griffey colored glasses on, but few of us are dumb enough to think that we’re getting the player back that we traded away nearly ten years ago. Simply put, Griffey does not need to do what he did then for this to be a success.
So, especially with expectations NOT being through the roof, while I understand the argument of Jr’s numbers continuing to fall off of a cliff, I could also see it going a bit the other way. If someone may say his HR numbers may decline by five or so….who’s to say they won’t increase by that many? Then we have a guy who is hitting about 25 bombs for us. Of course, it’s specualation to say that…but it’s also speculation to say that, by default, his production is going to go down for sure. So, why do I think his production could go up?
His production could go up based upon the fact that he WANTS to be here now. Much like guys putting up larger numbers in contract years (minus Richie Sexson…yuck), much has to be said for a revitalized Griffey who, believe it or not, knows that he is in the final stages of a dazzling career. Think otherwise? If his ego let him think otherwise, would he be publicly saying that he realizes he is a fallback option for many teams…or would he be willing to take a one year deal for a few million to probably be a DH? I’m sure he’d rather not do these things…but unlike many players out there right now, Jr realizes these things so has chosen to embrace it as much as he can. Couple this “attitude” change with a Griffey that is ten years more mature (free now of stories of his personal recliners), his knee presumably (and yes I did say presumably because I know we’re not doctors) healthy, and the fact that Jr has evidentally shed quite a bit of weight (per a recommendation from doctors to help him extend a productive career)….and you’ve got a guy who could easily see a bit of a resurgence. Will this happen…who knows? Is it possible based upon all the things i’ve laid out….yes it is.
So if it’s possible, what are the consequences? Hindering player development? I don’t see that happening to a significant degree, especially with a guy who will primarily be a DH I would imagine. Plus, i’ll flat out say it….to be able to enjoy our hero for another summer in a #24 Seattle jersey with that sweet swing of his, is worth it for me to wait a year on seeing a guy full-time that oughta be in the minors for another year to begin with. Griffey is not an everyday position player!
So, for one final breakdown (if you’re not sick of this long, first-time post already)….
1.Griffey does have potential upside based upon his desire to be here, his apparent change in attitude, and his apparent better health.
2. Griffey is NOT just another fading superstar making a farewell tour with a random team. He was OUR guy.
3. Griffey is not going to hinder the development of a team that we can all agree is not going to win the division or wild card to begin with. If we have a team on the cusp of contending, some of these arguments change slightly, but we don’t. Simply put, we’re not casting aside an actual all-star player contributing to a winning team to bring in all-star memories.
4. Finally, and most importantly based upon this initial article, we don’t know exactly what the ticket/merchandising impact would be for Jr. I think we can definitely all agree though that in the short term, Griffey will boost all of these things. Later on in the season, even if Jr ends up producing next to nothing for this team, can you M’s fans who oppose a Griffey signing honestly tell me that you’d be so bitter towards the organization for making this move that you’d refuse to go to the games because you are not able to see a different non-contributor on a daily basis instead of Junior? Are there enough of you who would boycott M’s games if Griffey is not performing to actually make a dent in making attendance less than it would be otherwise? Again, based on every article and every comment on all things Griffey…..the demand is there. You can debate the reasons why that is…but it’s there regardless.
Thank you!
Nobody goes to games to see single players. Nobody. They go to see teams. If Griffey helps the team win, they’ll come out to see him; if he doesn’t, they won’t. Period.
Griffey can’t help this team win.
And, pardon me for asking, but who really cares if he does bring out more fans? Are you a fan of high attendance, or winning baseball?
I would agree with you to some extent Steve T, but Griffey and his plays in the hearts of Seattle fans and it’s baseball history, is not just “any player.” I’m more a fan of winning baseball than I am high attendance, but high attendance (if ownership spends the money properly), will cumulatively help foster winning baseball down the line. So in a season where fans most likely are not going to see winning baseball, why not give fans who don’t go out just to see teams (and I promise you they are out there regardless of what you think), something to cheer for and be excited about?
Tell me then also, if Griffey isn’t going to help the team win…who will within reason? You can exclude the Bobby Abreu’s of the world, because he clearly would help us win, but comes with double or more the price tag.
Griffey is not the savior….and he’s not going to put us in the playoffs. He is, however, low risk with a potentially higher reward.
Personally, I think some people have their priorities screwed up.
So many people here saying how his stats aren’t there, and he couldn’t possibly do anything to help this team besides bring in a few ignorant butts and plant them in the seats for a few miserable games as the Mariners sink farther and farther in the west. They point to Dunn, or Abreau, and say – there’s better ways to spend money.
Or, they’ll point to demands of being traded etc. They say Jr was an immature brat that jilted the town for selfish reasons, and ruined the team for future fans.
where do I start?
1st – you can’t compare Ricky H, Bret Boone or Edgar / it’s pointless to go down that road. Edgar draws a comparison, but not a good one. If he’d left for 10 years, and came back – then go ahead and compare. But how did you decide he’d be worse? Back it up.
2nd – “Trade thing” – as I recall, and my memory isn’t totally shot – he wanted to leave, for whatever reason, so fine. He was a grown-up making a grown-up decision for him and his family. I think that’s good enough explanation – he didn’t say, “the money’s not important in my thought process” – then sign the biggest $$ contract in history. He said “I need to go.” That’s straight up, like it or not.
3rd – “He sucks” – maybe he does, maybe not – but compare Beltre and Griffey from last year, and there’s not too much difference – though Griffey played fewer games on a bad leg which he needed to drive the ball with any power. The doctor said his surgery went great, Griffey’s lost weight, and is healthier than he’s been in years.
4th – What if he’s not washed up – and delivers a 260 BA 75 RBI 20 HR and teaches the youth on this team how to mature? The difference between 2+ wins added (Dunn etc), vs 1/2 game added (Griffey)is only 1 1/2 game, people! Is it worh 4-8 Million for a year for those 1 1/2 games?
5th – The M’s are not going to spend money on Abreau or Dunn. It’s just not realistic. You cant include Swisher in any discussion, because he’s not available, and I venture to say those 3 guys are not long term solutions for various reasons. Garrett Anderson? Maybe, but he’s asking more money than he’s worth and who wants to deal with Boras?
6th – Griffey said he’d play LF, 1B, or DH. For less money than Abreau Dunn Anderson, etc. Also For the money – is it worth the 1 1/2 extra wins that stat-heads project we gain by signing one of these Sexon-styled bashers?
7th – Junior is not “the Kid” any more. Most people – I’d say 95%, understand that to be the case. But it’s also about baseball history in Seattle. Real life history. Real people, and their stories, not just Griffey’s.
Everyone who’s a fan from that time has a story. Some of the stories are not great. Babe Ruth disappointed a lot of people back in the day when he’d sleep around on his wife, party till he puked, and skipped out on charitable events. But over-all, he made up for it in other ways. We know what those are. Plus, he helped more kids than he turned away. The Babe just went out on the ball field, and “did his thing.”
8th – Jr always “did his thing” – yeah he was a petulant kid, but he grew up in a jock’s dressing room. He’s always played pro baseball. What kind of life is that for a kid? What do you expect? He led a sheltered life What do you expect? He hasn’t been totally healthy the last 10 years, but he would run into a brick wall for you – and there’s proof of that! He always played at the best of his ability, and didn’t hold back…
Now, he’s mature enough NOT to run into that wall.
9th – I’m not sure if it’s a bad thing if these stat geeks boycott games if they brought him back – would they deprive Seattle Mariner fans of their “Cal Ripkin Jr moment” just to say “hey I was right, Jr is only worth 1/2 a win.”
10th – In these terrible economic times, how is putting butts in seats a bad thing? If Jr is as bad as the stat-heads say, then maybe he’ll retire early. But at least the people of Seattle can look with pride at their team and say – “Wow! This is a great story that’s coming to an end. I was there at the beginning, and I’m here to see it end. You don’t see that happening very often, and the best way to move forward in life – is to make sure you’ve closed the door on the past, and not 10 hours later, or 10 years later, say “Did I leave the front door open?”
You close it, and move on.
Then, someone starts telling stories about how the “new kid” reminds you of another “kid” from another time.
dnc, You keep backing up and backing up and backing up. Get it yet?
[nice try attempting to tie your random potshot at Ichiro to the thread topic, but you didn't quite make it]
Um, what?
You’re going to have to point out this alleged backup up, huck, because I don’t see it.
dnc, Read your posts from top to bottom. It’s quite clear. At the end of the day, you say people go to a ball game for one player. I say most people go to see a good team, or a team with potential. I say I’m right. You disagree.