Nationals Sign Dunn
Dave · February 11, 2009 at 11:51 am · Filed Under Mariners
Two year deal for $20 million. He’ll play first base for them.
He was never coming here anyway. Don’t get worked up about this. A clever GM would realize that this makes Nick Johnson completely useless to the Nationals and see if you could get a LH, high OBP bat for nothing.
But, I’m not counting on it. At this point, the over/under on days until a Griffey signing is announced by the M’s is probably 2. I’ll take the under.
It will be interesting to see what kind of $$ Dunn winds up with.
My prediction for a 2-year deal: $16M.
Wow, that was unexpectes. Unexpected because holy hell why would the Nationals need to pay for an outfielder? Especially an average one? But ok.
Personally, I have no issues with Dunn not coming here and signing Griffey. This is not a team built to contend next year, not without a lot of luck and help, and none of Dunn, Abreu, or Griffey will get them over the hump. I’d almost rather it be Griffey because he will certainly be on a 1 year deal and will not hamper the club in the future.
Good thing we have a pretty clever GM, but yeah, I see this signing + Abreu’s as basically taking all the reasonable LH DH options off the market, so might as well sign Griffey.
If we DID end up with Nick Johnson, though, that would be pretty sweet- we’d have Branyan as a 1B/3B backup, Shelton as a 1B backup, and the two of them getting ABs at DH along with whichever person Wakamatsu wants to give the day off.
Nick Johnson’s salary on espn.com is listed as $5.5 million…
Something tells me Jack will steer clear. But a guy with a high OBP is hugely needed in this lineup.
The other problem with Johnson? Injuries have limited him to 38 games and 0 games the last two seasons… I doubt Jack Z will burn 5.5 mil for a guy who plays even FEWER games than Junior.
Johnson is a defensive asset, however. If you could get the Nats to pay half his salary or something, it is a potential steal . . . Or he’ll get hurt again and do nothing. You can say that about just about anyone you’ll sign now though.
Yea, Johnson’s perfect for the M’s. When healthy, he’s far better than the other alternatives, but his health record means that he’d leave PAs available for guys like Branyan, Balentien, and Clement, who we want to play regularly.
But, it’s probably not going to happen.
Johnson, healthy, is a huge upgrade.
That said, I’m not too annoyed about this. The M’s are not built to contend in ’09. They’re building flexibility and acquiring talent for ’10. Modest improvement on the field is all we need to see next year.
I dont know why, but I still feel like Z has a clever move up his sleeve yet. It may be that I am just refusing to believe Griffey is coming back. But with the great moves he has made thus far, I wouldnt be surprised to see him bring in Johnson, or make another trade many were not even expecting.
I thought you were pretty confident that Balentien wasn’t going to be with the M’s by opening day. Has anything changed your opinion on that?
Nick Johnson’s salary on espn.com is listed as $5.5 million…
You know, we could always send them a bus and a few million in cash and see if they would take the offer. Granted, they have a full rotation, but they had a full outfield+Nick Johnson and signed Dunn, maybe Bowden would like an extra SP.
Even if Griffey did sign, a trade for Johnson could still conceivably work assuming it fit in the budget. Branyan has played LF pretty extensively in his career and not been a liability.
The Nationals have a plethora of OFs. Any that the M’s should find appealing?
I thought you were pretty confident that Balentien wasn’t going to be with the M’s by opening day. Has anything changed your opinion on that?
Not to speak for Dave, but Balentien is mostly trade bait as the incentive for somebody to take the likes of Washburn off our hands. That looks increasingly unlikely to happen by opening day. So the better bet might be for him to be the fourth outfielder and platoon partner at DH for Griffey (or whatever lefthanded bat we sign). With a decent performance, it might make a difference in how much salary the Mariners have to eat, should the trade materialize later in the season.
Dunn’s power was appealing, but that’s about it…Griffey’s signing is coming by the weekend, if not sooner…
Please, please, please make a trade for Swisher Z!
2 at $20M seems a little high given this market. I guess they had to overpay him to get him to go to Washington.
Branyan has played LF pretty extensively in his career and not been a liability.
If you figure LF/DH/1B are three positions, plus Branyan and Chavez can also spend a little time at 3B and CF respectively (spelling players there), you’re really talking about ~1800 plate appearances, which you could split something like this:
450 Johnson
400 Branyan
400 Chavez
300 Shelton
250 Wlad
Ideally, you’d use Chavez as a defensive sub more and spot Shelton and Wlad with an eye towards platoon advantage. Wlad’s probably the worst guy on that list, but as a bench bat/reserve OF, he’s not the worst player in the universe.
This is why I don’t like DH-only players unless they are truly superior hitters, by the way, because it’s pretty easy to find ~league average defense and a tolerable bat SOMEWHERE- Carlos Pena, etc., and if DH isn’t the only way you can play a particular player, you have a lot more flexibility in the lineup.
Street has a roster-preview mirroring Derek’s last thread on the official site…not as bad as his usual writing is…
So if it looks like Griffey is happening, the next question is what the price tag will be. His deferred Cincy money is kicking in at 5 million per until 2024. Are the Mariners able to take that into account and get him for, say, 1.5 on a one-year deal? I’ve read that Goldberg is fine with a one year but have not seen any dollar figures floated. 1.5 with the Mariners and 5 from the Reds gives Griffey more than Abreu is getting from the Angels.
Austin Kearns is interesting. His bat never developed as hoped/hyped, but he is a good defender (career 8.5 UZR/150 in RF), which makes him instantly undervalued (especially with an old school GM like Bowden). But he was injured last year and he earns $8 million this year with a $1 million buyout in 2010 (or a $10 million salary). Plus he’d have to adjust to LF, which may hurt his defense a little. In terms of swapping undesireables, a Washburn-Kearns swap might be interesting for both teams. Verdict – only if part of a salary swap for Washburn/Batista/Silva.
Lastings Milledge fell out of favor with the Mets and now apparently Bowden is going to have him and Elijah Dukes compete for the starting CF spot. Either that or Dukes and Kearns will compete in RF. Milledge is will be 24 in April, so his bat will probably continue to improve and scouts generally love him. His CF defense was pretty ugly last year (-16.8 UZR/150), but you would expect that to improve some if he was in LF and he certainly has the athleticism to be a plus defender. He’s dirt cheap and the Nats would be crazy to trade him … but Bowden is pretty crazy. I’d take Milledge in a second (maybe something built around one of the M’s catching prospects would work). Verdict – yes!
Elijah Dukes has had all kinds of personal and legal problems. Too many for my taste, despite his obvious talent. Sometimes a young guy matures, but why take on the headache unless the price is pretty cheap. Verdict – not my taste.
Josh Willingham is entrenched in LF and was just acquired from the Marlins this offseason, so I don’t see the Nats moving him. No thanks on his poor defense (career -6.0 UZR/150 in LF) and bad back even if they want to move him. Verdict – not my taste.
But won’t Griffey (or his agent) look at the Abreau and Dunn deals and argue that Griffey is worth near the same kind of money — the same kind of money that Nick Johnson gets, incidentally. Especially — as so many people here like to argue — Griffey is worth more to the M’s in terms of gate revenues than anybody else?
A one year deal below $3M I can live with, but playing time incentives may be a bad thing if it encourages him to steal more AB’s from Clement.
Another player that is useless to the Nationals is Dmitri Young. If you could get him for next to nothing… should the Mariners be interested?
Joser, my question was if the Reds are already paying Griffey 5 mil this year, can Goldberg really ask for as much as an additional 5 mil from a new team if the total compensation would leave Griffey above both Dunn and Abreu? In any case, I certainly can’t see the Mariners affording more than $3 million either. As I understand it, they really don’t even have that much room.
Dmitri Young is basically ~Ken Griffey without any nostalgia factor (LH bat, terrible defense). Pass, since Griffey is presumably free talent and offers you fairly similar value without giving anything up in trade.
There’s also Ryan Langerhans, whose defense doesn’t suck, bats LH and also probably could be had for a song. He’s an upgrade on Endy Chavez, I think, but same general concept of “good glove, OK enough bat”- the problem would be you can’t play Langerhans and Chavez at the same time, and neither are very good DH candidates.
I have a feeling GMZ is burning up the phone lines to DC as we speak. Just a hunch.
But, I’m not counting on it. At this point, the over/under on days until a Griffey signing is announced by the M’s is probably 2. I’ll take the under.
You sound like a man convinced that Z is getting a lot of pressure to make this move from his bosses. I am sure he’s aware of the nostalgia of it all, and is not ignorant of good PR as part of his job. That said, I’d bet that he’s explored every other option there is first. He must know Griffey doesn’t make much of difference either way. With Abreu going to the Angels, it probably makes it a whole lot easier to feel ok about signing Griffey, if he was against the idea to this point.
Frankly, considering the bad moves we could have made to bring in aging veterans and really count on them to contribute, Griffey coming back is not the end of the world. You said in an earlier post:
in order for Dunn to make sense, he’d have to either cut his asking price or the Yankees would have to be demanding the moon for Swisher.
Given what Dunn went for, and adding on a reasonable premium to come to Seattle, would the contract have made sense if the M’s could have swung it? I am not asking because I am in favor of bringing him here. He’s not a good defender, and he’s not getting any younger. I just wonder what you thought of the actual cost of getting him, relative to expected contribution.
I just hope that Wash has been telling Anderson nothing but bad things about Seattle…I would HATE for them to bring Anderson in…
firova2 Griffey has already got that money in the bank from previous years. He gets it whether he sits at home this year or is playing. It should have no affect on his contract this year.
But won’t Griffey (or his agent) look at the Abreau and Dunn deals and argue that Griffey is worth near the same kind of money — the same kind of money that Nick Johnson gets, incidentally.
Abreu and Dunn are clearly better players, though. Griffey averages out to about a 5-10 wRAA player since 2006. Dunn and Abreu are around 25. That’s almost 2 wins (excluding defense since we’re discussing DH).
In order to consider Griffey = Dunn and Abreu, you basically have to pretend Junior’s knee surgery will turn the clock back to 2005. That’s a very uncertain assumption, though one I’m sure Brian Goldberg would be happy to have GMZ make.
The reality is that Griffey as a hitter is comparable to guys like Chris Shelton and Russ Branyan at this point in his career, sad though it may be to say that. That’s not to say he couldn’t have a breakout year in 2009… but so could they.
firova2 – I could be wrong here, but I’m guessing Griffey’s deferred comp from Cincy doesn’t even enter the contract negotiating picture. It’s not really the same as if they were on the hook for his contract this year – it’s money he already “earned” years ago and shouldn’t have any bearing on what he’ll earn this year.
It would be like applying for a job that pays $50k, and the employer telling you he’ll only pay you $30k because you have a pension from a previous job that pays you $20k.
As for what Junior would sign for, I can’t imagine him holding out for much. There’s just not a strong market out there for him.
Doug Mientkiewicz now!
Are you implying that our GM isn’t clever? Big Z knows what he’s doing. I’m betting he’ll at least give them a call. I want Nick Johnson and Luke Scott in Mariner uniforms by the end of the month.
Also, I know he’s not a lefty and he’s coming off a terrible season, but Kearns has to be damn near free, right? Maybe he’s worth asking about too.
Re: Nationals OF
Dukes is a hell of a player: he was worth 2.9 wins last year in half a season. Sure, there’s a temperament issue, but the guy can hit, and he can defend.
I’d love to get Willie Harris: he’s like Endy Chavez with an average to slightly above average bat.
Langerhans would be interesting, but I’m not sure he’s much better than Chavez, so I don’t much see the point.
Johnson is a good choice, but only if the cost is fairly low – he can still hit, but he’s played 38 games combined the last two years.
“Dmitri Young is basically ~Ken Griffey without any nostalgia factor (LH bat, terrible defense).”
The projections like Dmitri a bit better than they do Griffey. Dmitri is actually a switch hitter (useful off the bench). Dimtri could be potentially a lot cheaper than Griffey. and you wouldn’t have to worry about putting him on the lineup card everyday like you will with Griffey. Does anyone know if he’s healthy?
Young’s on the books for $5 million in 2009. I would be VERY surprised if Griffey signs for $5 million (given that the team doesn’t have $5 million in the budget right now), so you’d be paying more AND giving away talent for a marginal improvement at the plate over what’s there now (which I guess is some combination of Shelton/Wlad/Morse/LaHair/Carp, or Griffey in that mix if you sign him).
I suppose you could trade Washburn+cash for Young instead of Johnson, but Johnson has BIG upside if he is healthy (4-5 WAR)- theoretically, if he stayed healthy he could be or more valuable than Swisher is. Young doesn’t- he’s not much of an improvement on Griffey, or a Branyan/Shelton platoon (plus Branyan and Shelton aren’t complete defensive disasters). I would argue if the point of a deal is to give the M’s the best chance of contention in 2009 while not screwing the team down the road, you’re better off taking the player with the best payoff in 2009. Johnson is the kind of player who, if healthy, takes this team to the verge of contention in a weak division.
Looks like the Blue Jays just inked Kevin Millar to a minor league contract. So much for the super-utility clubhouse guy.
Johnson would definitely provide the mariners with a solid bat in the middle of the order for the casual fan, as well as being above average defensively.
Also some of his $5.5 million will be offset by whatever we give up in a trade to get him. I’m not going to speculate what it would take to get him, but it is certainly worth looking into because sending a player worth $2 million back to the nationals would bring Johnson’s price tag down to $3.5.
This is a move that I would be very excited about.
Um…this is rosterbation right?
Just wanted to ask before I go get the handcream…
Nick Swisher please….
JAC at Prospect Insider has heard that Griff has agreed to terms with a team, but doesn’t know if it’s Seattle…he expects Seattle to announce it tomorrow…
This just reminds me how pissed off I am that after 5 years of throwing money away stupidly, the Ms’ budget is now so tight that the team supposedly can’t afford to make a deal like this. People said Dunn was insisting on playing OF. Wrong. People said he wouldn’t sign for less than 3 years. Wrong. And they said he’d cost much more than $10M/year. Wrong. This would have been a good deal for an M’s team with at least a view of a window to competitiveness, and the fact the budget wouldn’t allow for it is a shame.
Yeah no kidding. During the Bavasi years they gave the worst GM in baseball a blank check.
During the ’90s – blessed with an abundance of homegrown talent – they had to trade guys like Tino and Nellie for budget reasons. And now in the late ’00s they have their first good GM in a long time and they hamstring him. Oh well. Such is the life of a Mariner fan.
Preachin’ to the choir.
Yep. Although I wonder if this cap restriction is only for this year.
If somehow Z can ink a deal with Johnson and avoid all of the pressure to add Griffey, I will love him forever.
On the other hand, I feel like he will be roasted by the local and national media, and pretty much every “traditional” fan. There would be some serious backlash for bringing in a bunch of nobodies, trading our ace closer, and passing on Griffey for Johnson.
Considering one of the arguments against Griffey has been “he’ll get injured and never play,” one does open oneself to criticism when suggesting signing a guy (Johnson) who has played 38 games total in 2 years due to injuries…
Not saying Johnson wouldn’t be a good guy to trade for (if you didn’t have to give up anything valuable), but the “traditional” fans would have some strong arguments on this one…
I’m sure Johnson’s 5.5 mil salary crosses him off the list anyway.
Considering one of the arguments against Griffey has been “he’ll get injured and never play,†one does open oneself to criticism when suggesting signing a guy (Johnson) who has played 38 games total in 2 years due to injuries…
The problem is if Griffey’s healthy, he’s not very good (maybe a 1-1.5 WAR player at DH, a replacement level player in the OF because his defense is SO terrible, he gives back all his offense), whereas if Nick Johnson is healthy, he’s a lot better (a 4-5 WAR player at 1B as a National in 2005-2006).
People need to understand that Griffey hasn’t been a very good hitter since 2005, ranging from “good” (comparable to Raul Ibanez’s 2004-2008 peak performance during his year in 2007) to “not very good” (comparable to Ben Broussard’s career numbers during Griffey’s 2006 and 2008). Ben Broussard-level talent represents free talent in this market- Frank Thomas, Garret Anderson, etc. That’s not a player who improves your team by 3-4 wins.
Basically, we all need to forget that Ken Griffey was an All-Universe player in Seattle before we traded him. What we’re getting if we sign him is a guy like Russ Branyan, Chris Shelton or Ben Broussard, maybe a touch better. We might get a good year, but that good year is just not likely to be very good, and could easily be bad. If the 2009 Mariners are going to contend, they need (among other lucky breaks) to find a 4-5 win player on the scrap heap. There’s a significant chance Nick Johnson could do that. There’s almost no chance Griffey does (he hasn’t been that good since the last millennium).
I’m sure Johnson’s 5.5 mil salary crosses him off the list anyway.
Not if you send the Nationals Jarrod Washburn gift wrapped in 3.5 (or however many) million dollars it takes to keep the salaries even. Even better, Johnson’s contract comes off the books in 2010, so if he blows out both his knees putting on his uniform the day after the trade, the worst case scenario is you went from starting Jarrod Washburn in the 2009 rotation to Ryan Rowland-Smith or Garret Olson. That’s a minimal downgrade in talent.
Wouldn’t the Nationals require something of value in return for Johnson, who can be a very good player when healthy? I don’t know if Washburn + gift wrapping qualifies.
Is there anyone on this blog who you need to remind about that? I think that’s a strawman. No one thinks the 56 homer Junior is coming to town… That guy lives only on the MLB Network, ESPN Classic, and in our minds’ eyes..
At most, I’ve heard it suggested that the 2007 Junior could be coming to town. Personally, I doubt the ’09 Junior matches ’07 but he’ll outperform ’08 Junior.
“People said he wouldn’t sign for less than 3 years. Wrong. And they said he’d cost much more than $10M/year. Wrong. ”
OK, I’ll cop to that. I was waaaaay wrong on this, and it’s just another sign of how much the market’s changed in one year. Salaries are down, yes, but it’s where and for what kind of skills that proves this isn’t just about the economy.
I’ve never seen anything like this, and if you’d told me a year ago that Dunn would go for 2/$20 or so and that Abreu would go for 1/$5, or that mid-tier players whose value comes from HRs would be valued MUCH closer to mid-tier players whose value comes from defense… I would’ve thought you were high.
I wouldn’t count on it either if Z believes Mike Carp is the first baseman of the future now that he’s here (in the organization).
Wouldn’t the Nationals require something of value in return for Johnson, who can be a very good player when healthy?
Johnson has no position, since the Nationals have decided to accumulate outfielders like they’re Fabrege eggs.
Washburn has value- he’s a mediocre starting pitcher who will give you 180ish innings of backend rotation filler, and will look decent if there’s a defense behind him. Now go look at the Nats’ rotation- it’s basically Daniel Cabrera and “who the hell are you?”.
I wouldn’t be wedded to Johnson- there are other useful players who are blocked by this signing, too. Basically, the idea is offer them the chance to swap out someone who is sort of superfluous to their roster thanks to their shiny new FA OF for someone who could easily make their roster, without having to a) pick up any salary or b) be committed past 2009.
Heck, they might be able to flip Washburn at the deadline for useful minor leaguers if they get lucky… maybe some more toolsy OFers, even. I hear Bowden likes them.
If that’s the case, it’s OK by me since there’s no better option left at DH on a 1-year basis until Adam Moore is ready for big-league ball other than maybe Nick Johnson and his high OBP when healthy.
Plus, the best way for Griffey to retire (if there is one at this point) is for him to either win it or all somewhere or retire as a Mariner.
Or, dare I say it, both.
Either way, I look forward to seeing #24 step up to the plate again for us.
Miguel Batista for Nick Johnson. Let’s see it.
Actually, what we said about Dunn was that he wouldn’t DH. Well, he won’t be DHing.