Our Griffey Opinion, Summarized
This story is going to dominate the Seattle baseball news for the next few days, and I’m sure we’re going to get a lot of non-regular traffic, so let me just summarize what we think of the Griffey signing.
1. As a short term, low money deal where he realizes he’s going to be DH and potentially be platooned, it doesn’t have a huge impact on the team one way or another. He can still be a useful hitter against RHPs, and we recognize that there’s a significant portion of the fanbase that really wants to see Junior play in Seattle again for reasons other than wanting the team to win. It will probably generate a decent amount of revenue for the club. For the amount of money that they had in the budget, there probably weren’t any better options.
2. Griffey in the outfield is a really bad idea. His age and injuries have robbed him of all range, and he’s worse out there than Ibanez was. In a perfect world, he’ll get exactly 0 innings in left field this year. He’s a DH only, unless he wants to teach himself to play first base.
3. If the Mariners are surprising everyone and contending in July, and Junior is hitting .260/.320/.400, the organization has to be willing to put him on the bench and make the move to bring in a better player. Likewise, if Clement’s knee prevents him from catching, Junior has to be willing to step aside and let the kid DH. He has to be okay with the fact that he’s not guaranteed a job regardless of how he plays. There are several situations that could arise that would involve the best decision for the team being Junior becomes a bench player. That has to be okay with him.
If the team can manage those variables, then it’s a decent enough move. As a LH platoon DH, he’s an okay player. They have to make sure he doesn’t want to play every day, never get pinch hit for, and try to play left field, though. In those scenarios, he’s hurting the team, and they’d be better off without him.
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I applaud your summary, and in clearing up what some folks may have mis-read about the site’s viewpoint about Junior. If used properly, he could bring a little value now, not hurt the club’s long-term chances, and help bring closure to a generation of M’s fans.
Dave – Why not make your prediction on Griffey’s statistical performance this year? If he performs below your prediction – you were right. On the other hand…well…I am sure that won’t happen so you won’t need to worry about it.
Otherwise I predict USS Mariner will have a series of commentataries of Griffey’s poor play.
Well, said. That pretty much sums it up.
The one worry I have is that Griffey can’t be given the Sexson/Boone/Olerud/Vidro treatment if he goes into the tank. I believe that Zduriencik has free range to pretty much do what he wants with the roster, and I believe that, at the right price, Griffey is a fine option under the conditions you have laid out. But I don’t know if Armstrong and Lincoln would allow Zduriencik to put Griffey on waivers if he is hittting at a 205/280/330 clip as a DH.
“If the team can manage those variables….”
Well put. Here’s hoping they end up being able to do so.
Because prediction contests are stupid. No one can know the future – all you can do is make judgments based on probability at the time of the decision.
If you go play in traffic and don’t die, you were still stupid.
Plus, any prediction would have to assume things like “he gets platooned”. If he doesn’t, the projection becomes worthless.
#3 is the part that really, really worries me, and the main reason I’ve been against this signing from the get-go.
“no one can know the future”
Wow – it sure seems like the theme of your posts is generally about using past performance to predict future outcomes.
Its seems like making pre-season predictions has been a common practice here and on LL. Why not for Griffey? You can put all the caveats on the predictions that you like.
And he’s not going to get platooned. He may get a lot of rest but he’s not going to be platooned…not on this team.
Your reading comprehension needs a lot of work.
We’ll do projections on him at some point as we do with everyone, rest assured.
Dave, great summmary of your discussion of Griffey in your other posts. Now that it looks like a done deal, lets hope that he has a Roy-Hobbs-like comeback season . . .
Signing Griffey now seems relatively useless to the team. I’m a little surprised that Z is going through with this to simply appease fans who are living in the past. All to earn a few extra bucks.
It’s almost absurd to bring Jr back here now that Nick Johnson is available.
(In the same article it says that the A’s are interested in getting Johnson.)
It goes against all logic. The front office is too smart to take a step back after creating such great momentum for the future.
It all comes down to the best player available.
When I saw Johnson was agitating for a trade I thought That sounds like a Beane move — find a high-upside guy others have shied away from because of injuries, bad luck on BABIP, or whatever.
AKMarinersFan: Given your record on here the past few days, Dave knows better than to be baited by a troll. (And in response to what you’re going to say next: it’s characteristic of trolls to insist what they’re doing is not trolling. Sometimes they even believe it.)
That’s pretty much the same way I feel, Dave.
I really think this team is close to contention in the AL West, and I’ve been against the Griffey signing because I thought it was settling for something less than what we could potentially get. But since it appears that Armstrong really is keeping a tight grasp on his wallet and there was absolutely no market for Washburn’s salary, I guess Griffey is the best we can do. And he is better than nothing, if only ever so slightly.
Projection is not qute the same as prediction…particularly for folks who know what they’re talking about.
Dave, your third point hits the nail on the head. Griffey is a ghost and will be wasted space on this roster. If the team is playing well and they need an extra bat mid-season, good luck finding a guy like Johnson on the cheap to replace Griffey.
Why not get Johnson now…
Well Jack Z will have to be the one imposing those expectations on Griffey. It certainly won’t be coming from Lincoln & Armstrong. All they see are feelgood PR stories and $$$$.
It will help having another patient, left-hand power hitter in the lineup.
By “patient” you mean hospital, right?
Griffey is old and broken.
I’m pretty sure Wakamatsu’s going to be making out the lineup cards. Zduriencik’s job ends when the contract is signed, for the most part.
Johnson is even more brittle than Junior.
Dave-may I suggest that you elaborate on exactly how bad Jr. is in the field? I mean statistically. Anecdotally bad (“he makes Raul look good”) will not suffice. Maybe a whole post on just that, otherwise we’re doomed to repeat this thread in perpetuity…
[excessive stupidity]
How about “he’s on par with Brad Hawpe.”
But I don’t know if Armstrong and Lincoln would allow Zduriencik to put Griffey on waivers if he is hittting at a 205/280/330 clip as a DH.
_______________________________
I had an opportunity to watch Junior hit right handed during spring training batting practice a few years back. I am convinced he could hit that stat line right handed.
Lets just refer them to fangraphs.
“if Clement’s knee prevents him from catching, Junior has to be willing to step aside and let the kid DH”
Is it that big of a deal if Jr takes away ab’s from the Clement as a DH? Isn’t Clement at best a league avg player if he’s a DH? If he can’t catch should we really care about his development ?
fiftyone: his UZR/150 in right field is nearly twice as bad as Ibanez in left. Good enough for you?
coasty, developing Clement as a hitter while giving his knees something a break in this post-knee surgery year might be a pretty sensible approach to player development, and needn’t signify giving up on him as a catcher.
Griffey is essentially the worst defensive OF in baseball.
2004: -21.6 UZR in 656 IP as CF
2005: -19.9 UZR in 1065 IP as CF
2006: -24.0 UZR in 870 IP as CF
2007: -30.4 UZR in 1163 IP as RF
2008: -11.6 UZR in 763 IP as RF
The average CF is about 10 runs better than the average corner OF, so you could write those as something like -11/-10/-14/-30/-11 over the last five years as a left fielder. And, of course, that’s in limited playing time.
As a full time left fielder, you’d expect Junior to be something like -20 to -25 runs. That’s atrocious.
Isn’t Clement’s potential in his bat compared to his catching abilities?
Griffey will be a worse LF than Manny this year? Is that your prediction?
@ fiftyone: UZRs are available courtesy fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=327&position=OF
Its a shame UZR doesn’t date back to the glory days. I’ll always remember Griffey as the guy who jumped over the wall in Detroit on back to back nights.
AK-
Dude…stop…c’mon…
Thank you Dave and Gump. Those 2007 numbers have just got to be plastered everywhere, because they make your -25 runs estimate look generous.
More like Brad Pitt, it would appear.
I have fond memories of being in the kingdome during the 95 series and Griffey tearing it up but this is too much of a pipe dream to have good feelings with us signing him again. We got our best years from him when we snagged him in the draft and would like to develope more young players.
I appreciate your summary, because I’m finding this whole thing incredibly disheartening. I’m one of the fans who feels less likely to attend a game if Griffey is signed, it just feels so backwards-thinking. So thanks for making me feel like there is a potential upside to this situation. This site is keeping me relatively sane.
Fiftyone, I included some of his recent UZRs in the other thread. His 2007 was the second-worst of any player since UZR’s been calculated, from 2001. If he’d played every game, his UZRs suggest unbeatable awfulness. As I said in the other thread, last year he was TWICE AS BAD as Raul. He was the worst fielder in all of baseball, any position, in 2007.
UZR can be found at Fangraphs.
Yeah, there are better players available, and I hate the idea that Griffey will be stealing ABs from Clement. But Griffey has value at the gate in Seattle that he doesn’t have anywhere else (even if it’s nothing close to the inflated expectations expressed by a lot of people in the past few days) and for that reason I could see ownership pushing Zduriencik on the issue. If they make salary limit a hard one for every scenario except for bringing in Griffey, it may work out that Griffey is the best bat available under the (artificially distorted) circumstances.
With the local economy erasing a lot of discretionary income (for both individuals and the businesses who were expected to buy into the all-important luxury suites), and the M’s coming off a horrendous season that ensured a 8%+ drop in attendance even in a good economy, I can already smell the sweaty fear wafting down Edgar Martinez Way. But every challenge is an opportunity, and the departure of the Sonics leaves a huge hole in spring sports coverage that Husky/Cougar basketball can’t fill. As Derek already wryly noted, a Griffey signing creates all sorts of easy media attention and thus provides an opportunity for the Mariners to create buzz on the way into Spring Training well out of proportion to even his best case on-field contribution. In fact for the fans who don’t read the blogs or pay close attention to the team when it’s not playing — and that’s most of them — this may be the first offseason move that actually registers with any intensity or lingers longer than the time it takes to scan across some vaguely-familiar names in a trade headline.
So, even though I see it as slightly detrimental to the future inasmuch as it takes AB’s away from the younger players and represents a lost opportunity to acquire someone who can make a positive impact in ‘10 or beyond, it’s an understandable move for the team to make under the circumstances. And I truly hope Griffey does well and helps the team (though that does make me fear what will happen this winter when the fans want him to stick around whatever the price).
Though let me add — at the right price / years.
Better Griff (DH only!)than the other rumored alternative…Garrett Anderson…
I really think this team is close to contention in the AL West
Does anybody know how many 100 loss teams have been in contention or reached the playoffs the following year?
This just doesn’t seem likely to me with the moves that they have made. We added alot of guys with upside, but will they all come near that upside this season. It’s not like we added players the caliber of Teixiera, CC and Burnett.
I for one hope that they do contend. I’m just not going to get my hopes up.
The way to get more people to go to the stadium is to play better baseball. In the long run (and by that I mean “beyond this year”) signing Griffey will be the LEAST important of Zduriencik’s moves. He’s putting together a team that has potential, an incomplete jigsaw puzzle but nonetheless one that has a recognizable picture on it. This is a team that can win going forward.
That’s what the mouthbreathers at KJR and Baker’s blog don’t get — Zduriencik IS building a winner, if not this year then going forward, regardless of what happens with Griffey. Griffey is irrelevant. THIS is the big change from the Bavasi years, not whether we sign Aging Slugger X for one year or not.
All of this “we’re not going to win 70 games, so who cares, let’s have some nostalgia” talk is not just wrong but wrong-headed. It’s poisonous. It’s not Griffey I object to; it’s the idea of Griffey, and the other ideas that inevitably accompany that idea.
One of the effects I hope to see come out of Zduriencik’s tenure here is, eventually, a generation of smarter fans, with a more realistic view of what works and what doesn’t, as the scoffers are faced with some unavoidable results.
For instance, I think it would be tremendously exciting to see a city that is hugely proud of its unbeatable defense, that mocks opposing sluggers as they ground out or whiff or watch their best efforts drop impossibly into gloves out of nowhere. That’s just as much fun as watching your guy homer every so often. I think we here in Seattle have forgotten that.
Watching your old heroes fail, and flail, isn’t fun at all.
I’m surprised by position #3. What if he’s not OK with it?
You’re not worried about impacting “team chemistry,” are you?
I think Z knows what he’s doing. I’m sure there’s no way we see Griffey in the field unless we’re completely out of the race.
On that note, it might be fun to let Griffey play some center in September if we’re completely out of contention.
If by “fun” you mean watching Silva’s ERA skyrocket, then yes that would be fun. Actually, that would be a lot of fun.
The Mariners weren’t a true talent 100 loss team last year.
And name recognition doesn’t have anything to do with anything.
Laracco –
The D-Rays were 61-101 games in ‘06, 66-96 in ‘07, and, well, did a bit better in ‘08. The A’s lost 108 games in ‘79 and went 83-79 the next years (DMZ wrote about that here).
You can explore this for yourself here – e.g. for the Mets).
And the non-PECOTA consensus seems to be that the Mariners are a true talent 75-80 win ballclub with a good deal of upside and non-trivial chance at the mid-80s wins in a weak AL west.
“The Mariners weren’t a true talent 100 loss team last year.”
That’s as dumb as anything that Lincoln or Armstrong have said.
No, it’s a fact.
Congratulations, your trolling got old fast. Enjoy the mod queue.
Oh no you didn’t!
I’d have taken him out back here, Dave. That guy was pretty much the Omega to your Alpha. The evil twin cloned from a transporter accident. He was… the NEGA-DAVE.
No, it’s not. The Mariners’ pythagorean was 67-95
Even with a Doug Feith of a manager and GM and who gave Vidro, Sexson, Cairo, and Bloomquist almost 1,000 plate appearences, an unlucky and disastrous Johjima, and far below-projection seasons from Betancourt, Clement, and Balantien. There’s backup for this all over the archives of USSM and LL.
So CHILL. Jaysus.
1. I still think he could play everyday as a DH until proven otherwise. I’ll wait until April to make a judgment there one way or another. We’ll also have to see what Wak thinks of him in camp as well.
2. Definitely yes.
3. Agreed.
The M’s are faced with the same problem that every business in America is faced with: balancing long-term strategy with short-term expectations. This is, to say the least, not the ideal economy for a long-term rebuilding project.
Baseball is fueled by discretionary income–both at the individual and corporate level–and that discretionary income has taken a huge hit since last season. As much as I love what Z has done this offseason, I am not convinced that it has done enough to overcome the debacle that was last season for many fans. I suspect that many a more-casual fan (whose dollars are just as important to the club as anyone elses) has taken a wait-and-see approach with this team before committing their dollars.
While I think it is a stretch to suggest that Griffey alone is an antedote to this, his signing does create a buzz among fans that are just starting to tune into baseball. For instance, despite hours of my telling her how great this offseason has been, I was having a difficult time convincing my better half that it was a good idea to continue to participate in our shared season tickets–her tune changed when I told her Junior might come back.
If the only capitulation to short-term fan gratification that Z has to make is to sign Griffey, we should consider ourselves lucky.
I still think he could play everyday as a DH until proven otherwise.
His 3 year OPS (2006-2008) against LHP is somewhere around .700, which means he’s spent 3 years hitting like Yuniesky Betancourt (lifetime OPS: .705) whenever there’s a lefty on the mound. Yuni’s a well-below average hitter. Exactly how much more proof do you need?
Combine that with the fact that we could easily have Chris Shelton and Wlad on the roster and give THEM Griffey’s ABs against LHP, and it’s a no-brainer- you don’t play Griffey if there’s a lefty on the mound.
Hey Griffey is better at DH than anything we’ve had since Edgar retired. At least we don’t have Vidro in there!
Jr. has something to prove and as long as he stays healthy, could very well put up the numbers he had in 2007. I am so excited for the home opener when they announce #24 KEN GRIFFFFFEYYY JUNNNIOR!
It’s gonna be good!
OPS+ splits last year were 117 / 86. That is about what I would expect if he was healthy. I think a DH with an 86 OPS+ split is a platoon candidate, don’t you?
Dave or Derek,
Does one of the many relief pitchers get dropped to make room on the 40-man for Griff? If so, which one?
On the one hand, I fully agree with all three points Dave, though like many others in the comments I wonder how #3 might actually play out.
I also value your analysis of his defensive ability, and I assume it’s in the ballpark of what to expect, so to speak.
On the other hand, as a fan I also have a soft spot for Jr and I can’t deny a bit of goosebumps about him returning.
On the third hand (bet you didn’t know I had three hands
, I think people might be *underestimating* how badly things might go off the rails if Griffey comes here and stinks up the joint. He’ll get booed and his skin is so thin things could get ugly very fast.
The best I can hope for is that he comes here on a one year deal and is a slightly above average DH on a contending team.
I know that sounds bad, but I’m trying to be realistic…
Stephen Kahn, Marwin Vega, Bryan LaHair, and Tug Hulett would be the most likely DFA candidates.
Vega is the one I was thinking of most…I thought he would have gone before when Messenger was released…
I’m all for LaHair getting cut, but I’d like to see if Hulett can contribute as the UT guy…I suppose he has less to offer than Corona though…I’m excited about Corona…
Kind of OT, but they are fall-out moves when Griff signs…which is what all the hooplah is about…
Thanks Dave…
Which would you prefer: a) Abreu playing LF with his bat in the lineup or b) Endy/Balentien in LF with Griffey at DH.
I think Abreu would have insisted more on playing defense than Griffey will, therefore signing the latter isn’t necessarily worse.
I agree with everything Steve T said. Unfortunately, I’ve already given up on the good fight and moved on to bemused resignation.
Although I called him out for trolling earlier, it’s possible that may actually have been an honest (albeit rudely expressed) belief reflecting fundamental ignorance of the most basic statistical analysis. Though that’s the problem inherent to rhetorical gunfights with random strangers: it’s hard to tell if the really bad shots are deliberately mis-aimed or just breathtakingly incompetent.
Not to speak for Derek, but I didn’t read his point #3 as having anything to do with worries about “chemistry” being harmed by Griffey pouting and throwing things if he’s marginalized by the team playing its best players instead of the most nostalgic ones. Derek is worried that the team won’t play the best players because of their fear of “bad chemistry” (or a misguided belief that having Griffey in the lineup draws more fans than a winning team). But if Griffey understands that the rules aren’t different for him and he may be a bench player on a contending team (rather than an everyday player on cellar dweller) then no fear of “bad chemistry” will cause the team to employ sub-optimal lineups.
Memo to Ken Griffey Jr.
Two words: Brett Favre.
Get out while you’ve still got some dignity.
The next best hope is to get injured in your first week, so at least you leave with some pity.
Everything else is going to be worse.
Your choice.
Would anyone agree with me that Griffey has more upside than Abreu?
Abreu is a sure bet to hit .280 with 15 HRs. Worst case scenario he’s a few HRs below that, best case scenario he hits 20 HRs, but no more.
Griffey on the other hand, may still have .270+, with 30+ HRs, his only question (albeit a HUGE one) is if he can stay healthy.
So while Abreu is more likely to have a better year, would anyone agree Griffey has more upside?
So…with regards to point three. How well does he need to play where he shouldn’t feel the need to step aside for some other player?
hansk, I don’t speak for everyone, but I will say that Jr. did display an awful lack of batspeed last year. I haven’t seen him look so consistently out of place in the batter’s box since his rookie year. I hope the knee injury was the culprit, but I doubt that’s the only thing that was behind it. He’s still got upside in the mid .800’s in terms of OPS if he only has to face righties, but Junior isn’t really in Abreu’s hitting class anymore (who can still put up mid-to-high .800 OPS numbers against BOTH righties and lefties).
One thing I want to know is… when is the press conference?! I want to watch!
So while Abreu is more likely to have a better year, would anyone agree Griffey has more upside?
No. This is why evaluating players by BA and HR doesn’t work. It ignores doubles, walks, baserunning… lots of these things that are valuable to a team’s offense.
Here’s Abreu’s fangraphs page and Griffey’s fangraphs page. Go to the bottom, and look at the “Batting” column.
Look at the huge differences between Abreu and Griffey.
Griffey doesn’t have more upside than Abreu.
Thanks for the reply.
I’ve read all over that this deal is for something “south of $5 mil”, but implies it’s close to that amount. But that doesn’t make any sense (as ussmariner argued in an earlier post). How can Abreu and Griffey be paid almost the same??
They won’t be. Expect the deal to be something like $1 million guaranteed with $1-$2 million in incentives.
joser:
Good point. The media and fan support behind Griffey would make it difficult for the team to bench him, unless there was this kind of an understanding going in.
In fact, even if there is this kind of an understanding going in, it could still be a factor if they start taking heat for not playing the fan favorite.
Can we bring Edgar and Buhner out of retirement on 1-year deals for “old-times sake” as well?
I really hope that Griffey if signed will be able to produce at some level. Atleast he could say to all the young guys “Hey, I used to do that too”
But Abreu in LF would allow somebody else to DH.
Abreau is a 1.5 to 2.5 win player with the assumption he was playing RF. On the M’s he’d be in left, and I’m not sure how you want to adjust that — there’s more field for him to cover, but that also means he’s farther away from the walls (his supposed weakness). Safeco’s RF dimensions are similar to Yankee stadium, so his offense wouldn’t suffer.
Taking Griffey’s wOBA=.350 as the high end of the range of ‘09 projections (.330 to .354), and given that he’s injury-prone and should be platooned — so he probably won’t see more than 500 ABs — suggests he’s maybe a 1.5 win player, best case.
Endy Chavez is more than a 1 win player if he plays full-time, but call him 1 win since he’s not going to get that.
So the best case version of Endy+Griffey is about the same as the best case version of Abreu + a nothing DH. Except that ignores days with Endy in the outfield + Abreu as DH, not to mention the chance Clement has a breakout year and adds value to the DH spot on days he doesn’t catch, or Wlad learns to hit breaking stuff and adds some value there also. That’s a real advantage to having an open DH spot you can use intelligently; if you’re going to have a full-time DH, he better be really good. I think M’s fans got spoiled by Edgar and now have a distorted notion that the “Designated Hitter” spot in the lineup means you have to have a truly designated hitter on the roster.
I like your summary of things. Griffey’s addition would definitely have some return, but the true cost/benefit is TBD. It definitely would test our rookie manager, Junior’s a big personality to handle.
Jersey sales alone could justify this monetarily, however the further away from contention we play the more dire the possible consequences for both Griffey’s and Z’s legacies.
I think all of Z’s great moves could be overshadowed if this goes awry too far, but this does seem to be the best risk/reward of any additions that could be made at this time.
I think the bottom line is that the Mariners need to win early in order to revalue their players, if they don’t… well it will provide plenty to blog about.
I don’t care. I know it smacks of ticket sales desperation and is against everything I believe in with regards to the numbers; I hope he hits 40 bombs and gets in the “juvination machine” to play outfield like a gazelle.
I am happy today. So sue me.
Maybe with the extra ticket sales today they can trade Wlad and get Swisher to play left.
I think coming back to Seattle will give him a little “juice”. Pardon the drug reference. I’d be willing to bet he hits over 35 HR’s. Call me loony if you want… I’m excited. If he’s in Seattle, then I’m going to go see him play. Most graceful player I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.
I wonder if Bud and the owners will okay a rule change to allow for the use of Hoverounds by past-their-prime left fielders?
That’s an interesting suggestion, I had not thought about that. I would think that some M’s fans would have learned after Carl Everett and Jose Vidro, but who knows?
Either those or segways!
I wonder how this city would feel if they see their huge star from not that long ago reduced to whatever he can provide now. I also wonder how long the new honeymoon will last.
Unfortunately, this isn’t true anymore… I was at the game when he hit two bombs and was applauding with everyone else, but I’d still prefer someone with more upside potential if that was possible.
The optimist in me is hoping that Z will be able to argue something along the lines of “if I bring in Griffey for cheap and he makes it all back for us in additional revenue, I get to use that money to pick up a salary dump in mid-season.”
Or even Patrick Ewing, circa 00-01, for that matter.
I know you’re probably not being serious, but remember to divide your calculation by 30: all MLB branded merchandise revenues are divided evenly among the teams (something the Yankees and Red Sox never fail to complain about). (Well, except for Bonds merchandise, as he opted out of the agreement the players union has with owners… but who is buying Bonds merch at this point?)
Really? I would hope not: the people who have been most critical of Bavasi in the past — ie us, and people like us — are the ones who are least likely to hold Griffey against Zduriencik. Though I suppose it’s possible that the people who have been calling the loudest for Griffey’s return will be the people who call the loudest for Zduriencik’s head if that sinks the team. I frequently underestimate the stupidity and irrationality of my fellow humans, especially when they’re in large groups.
You’re all a bunch of loonies. But I agree: if he does come here, I want him to do really well because it helps the team. However….
What if he does do really well? What if he doesn’t get hurt, and has good luck with BABIP, and manages to put a few over that RF fence? And then the offseason comes, and he wants to stick around for ‘10 — with a significantly larger contract, despite his older and even riskier body.
What then?
Clear to me that Z is building goodwill with his bosses and the nostalgic segment of the fanbase. Just as long as he remembers to cash in someday.
We’ll worry about that when that happens.
We’ll worry about that when that happens.
As said at WaMu when they were handing out subprime mortgages, and Wall St when they were bundling and reselling them, and various other institutions when they were buying them.
Hey, look: Matthew Carruth calculates Griffey as a “1 to 1.5 win” player too. Cool, the math I did earlier (on Abreu vs Endy+Griffey) might actually be right.
Does anyone know when single-game tickets go on sale? Nothing posted yet on the Mariners website. Thanks.
If they’re smart, they’ll put them on sale as part of the Griffey announcement. Heck, they should stick Junior down behind the ticket window at Safeco for a limited time and turn it into a media event.
I’m still trying to find a link to the information that will actually answer your question, sorry.
And what do you care? The M’s won’t be spending your money.
Yayyy! Welcome back, “It’s not your money” argument! It’s been so long!
Seriously – the Mariners missed out on Bobby Abreu because they spent “not your money” on Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, and Miguel Batista, and you still can’t grasp why budgets are important?
You’d do well to stop posting for a while and just read.
Remember when the Twins put ten million on the table just a few months ago, and the Ms walked away from it? Ten million bucks, just sitting there. “Pick it up”, they said, “and we’ll take Washburn off your hands, too”, and Chuckie said “no, I don’t want ten million dollars for free”.
Ten mil is TWO Abreus.
That’s why you care about budgets.
Hi guys. I’ve read this site every day for almost 7 years now, and I’ve probably posted all of 5 times ever. What brings me to post today is a question:
If the team signs Griffey, will there be draft pick compensation to Chicago?
My opinion on this deal pretty much hinges on this point. If its just a 1 year deal for a few million with no draft cost, then it’s really a fairly harmless “for the fans (or “Griffey” fans if you prefer)” signing and I doubt it would make much difference in the win column either way.
If it does cost draft picks, then I have to imagine that Z is under pressure from the powers that be.
Edit: Holy Christ, the last time I posted there were no edit buttons.
No draft pick.
Even if it’s not my money, after the last four years it would be nice to cheer for a team that looks more than one day/move ahead for a change. And so far this offseason, that’s exactly what I think I’m seeing. Which is probably another reason Zduriencik hasn’t been falling over himself to sign Griffey. It’s potentially a Varitek trap (with overtones of Smoltz in Atlanta or Hoffman in San Diego).
My alltime favorite baseball player was Ryne Sandberg. I loved him growing up watching the Cubs. When he came back in ‘96 and ‘97 after retiring, it just wasn’t the same.
This feels similar. Yeah, it’s not much money. Yeah, it’s not the end of the world if they use Jr. properly as a platoon DH. But I’ll think back to when he first started here and be a little sad to watch his career grind to its end in this way. Especially if they let him play in the field for any significant amount of time.
Doesn’t it feel like when Mays went back to NY to play with the Mets or Aaron went back to Milwaukee to play with the Brewers, and you were sorta happy but at the same time sad that you knew they were done?
Is fangraphs wrong on this one?
(quote source: Matthew Carruth, fangraphs.com)
Assume some sarcasm here, but I have to ask: why is everyone so freakin’ sure Junior’s coming here? Because that’s just how the Mariners’ front office works? Because you have inside information from someone who knows what he’s talking about?
The ESPN rumor machine says something on the order of 5 mil for a season, which strikes me as absurdly high. Am I nuts to think that, since Abreu signed on as an actual outfielder for a mere 6 mil? I like The Kid and all, but 5 mil for a part-time DH?
I am so sick of people saying “it’s not your money so why do you care”.
Bad contracts can kill a team and the 2009 M’s are a classic example. One bad contract on it’s own can be worked around but when the team is paying about $39 mil for Washburn, Batista, Silva and Johjima that is a massive amount of wasteful spending.
All of those players are easily replaceable for cheap and that was exactly my frustration with Bavasi from day one. Bavasi time and time again overpaid for players he could have gotten on the cheap. Jack Z on the other hand has shown some creativity getting guys like Branyan, Ardsma, Walker and others for cheap.
But it is “our money” that the team is spending because ticket sales are a huge component of payroll and if the team sucks and attendance drops so does the payroll…and the more sucky contracts that are handed out the greater chance the team will not be good.
This off-season had the M’s had even the $10 mil from Washburn available Abreu could have easily been a Mariner and money would have been left over to add another useful position player.
Except for the part where payroll is tied to ticket sales, yeah!
Personally, I think I’d rather have Abreu at even 60% of his former self than what we saw out of Washburn, Silva and Batista last year.
After sleeping on the thought of Griffey rejoining the M’s, I wondered if his value would decrease if he once again requests “Hey, Ho, Hip Hop, Hooray, Ho” as the music preceeding his pate appearances.
I think you mean “Hip Hop Hooray” by Naughty by Nature (off the album 19 Naughty III)
You are right. I was merely quoting the words that are etched into my mind.
Baker was on the radio this morning — he was forced to spend a lot of time shooting down Mitch’s conspiracy theory that Griffey was a foregone conclusion before the off-season even began, and that [Zduriencik] has no real GM power…
He opined that the FO and Brian Goldberg have had to have had the ‘what if’ discussion if Griffey is terrible and they need to bench him mid-season, and he too would be shocked if the deal is for more than 1 year, $1-2M + $1-2M in incentives.
Instead of playing “Hip Hop Hooray” for Griffey when he comes up to hit this season, I think they’ll be playing The Beatles’ “When I’m Sixty-Four” instead.
Motley Crue: “Home, Sweet, Home”
Eminem: “…guess who’s back …back again …guess who’s back …tell a friend”
(mandated by ownership)
What about “Touch of Grey”?
Tee hee.
How come the Mariners don’t have to give up a draft pick if they sign Griffey? Is it because he’s not a top tier free agent… like, say… Ibanez..
Not offered arbitration by the White Sox.
CONGRATULATIONS YOU ARE THE MILLIONTH PERSON TO ASK THAT QUESTION DING DING DING DING DING DING
You win a one-year contract with the Royals
I’m surprised Moyer doesn’t use that.
Jeff & Evan: I like that one, too…and it wouldn’t surprise me with Moyer. I’ve heard that he was a big classic rock guy.
You win a one-year contract with the Royals
Gee, that’s almost as bad as one of those dopey consolation prizes lurking behind the curtain on Let’s Make A Deal.
Oh crap, I forgot to block that quote…sorry Derek.
What about “Touch of Grey�
“the old gray mare” is probably going to be more accurate…
I confess I haven’t been visiting USSMariner very much this winter, so maybe someone can tell me:
How are season ticket sales going for the M’s front office? Are Lincoln/Armstrong using this “bring Junior back” ploy just to boost ticket sales, or do they REALLY think he still has some value?
OK, I know no one can tell from what they’re saying publicly, I’m sure it’s the same old, same old Pollyanna stuff we’ve heard from them for years. But does anything they’ve said about Junior coming back MAKE SENSE?
I don’t know what Zduriencik and Wakamatsu have said either, but I’m sure nothing they’ve said overrides Lincoln/Armstrong on this issue.
3 hours till the guys start taking their physicals…the season is alllllllllmost here!
Will Baker give us blow-by-blow accounts of the medical poking and prodding?
I respectfully, but enthusiastically, recommend Old Folks Boogie as Griffey’s walkup music.
close ….
“Carlos Silva is indeed slimmer as advertised.
He’s no supermodel, but indeed does appear to have lost 30 pounds. He was tipping the scales at a whopping 285 pounds when last season ended and now says he’s in the mid 250s.
So, I guess I win the U.S.S. Mariner official poll as to who will be the first beat writer to write a weight loss story from camp.”
If it weren’t such a mellow tune, “Lines On My Face” by Peter Frampton might be another option for Griffey’s plate music.
Ah, so the Chef will be doing Slimfast ads this summer!
I think that would be a great idea for the mariner commercials!I could just see him with a slim fast can or mariner mojo juice! Think he’d be offended? lol
Rotoauthority does a ’spring training cliche’ list every year. Always entertaining.
Which, of course, begs for a new marketing slogan to reflect both veteran weight loss and Z’s youth movement:
The 2009 Seattle Mariners: Leaner & Greener!
could just see him with a slim fast can or mariner mojo juice!
How about “Mojo Milk” along the lines of that new “Muscle Milk” I keep hearing about.
Ah, so the Chef will be doing Slimfast ads this summer!
- Or we can get him to do one of those terrible Nutrasystem ads like dan marino.
In Baker’s blog post otherwise entirely about Carlos Silva, I like how he slips this in at the end:
Griffey’s theme song? It’s gotta be that classic by Peaches ‘n Cream:
I was a fool to ever leave your side
Me minus you is such a lonely ride
That breakup we had
Has made me lonesome and sad
I realize I love you
‘Cause I want you back
Hey, hey
…
Reunited, and it feels so good
Reunited, ’cause we understood
There’s one perfect fit
And, sugar, this one is it
We both are so excited
‘Cause we’re reunited
Hey, hey
Could we just imagine:
“Hi, I’m Carlos Silva, and I lost 40 pounds using the Nutrasystem diet…”
I’m going to recommend “Who Knows Where The Time Goes?” by Sandy Denny with Fairport Convention for Griffey’s plate theme.
[meta, send an email if you feel you've been treated unfairly]
[see above]
Actually, it was Peaches & Herb who did “Reunited”…but, yeah, that’s too funny. I remember when they used to play that at the Kingdome whenever an opposing pitcher would confab with his catcher out at the mound.
Other Griffey Theme Song Possibilities:
“1999″ by Prince
“The Old Man is Down the Road” by John Fogerty (fittingly from the “Centerfield” album)
“As Good As I Once Was” by Toby Keith
“If I Could Turn Back Time” by Cher
“Dream On” by Aerosmith
“Back in Black” by AC/DC
Well, whatever Baker might be saying, Stone (citing the ever-popular “sources”) thinks it is “imminent.”
I wonder how that exam will go. “Are you Ken Griffey, Jr., and are your legs still physically attached to your body? Yes and yes? Congratulations, you’re once again a Seattle Mariner!”
Lest we forget these classics for Griffey theme music:
“Old Man” – Neil Young
“Against The Wind” – Bob Seger
“Old Days” – Chicago
“My Back Pages” – Bob Dylan (also later done by The Byrds, with the memorable chorus line of “I was so much older then…I’m younger than that now”)
“The Boys Of Summer” – Don Henley
BTW, Mikey, you read my mind with that Fogerty song!
I wonder if they’ll run him through a metal detector to check for safety pins.
Except that’s not classic rock — more like sell-out hippie mall muzak.
Back to Griffey: what’s the Nine Inch Nails song with the lyric
“If i was twice the man I could be, I’d still be half of what you need”?
OK, I’ll stop being mean. If he’s really going to be a Mariner, I need to be a fan. How about Aerosmith’s “Back in the Saddle”?
But really, we need to be more creative for an event of this local historical magnitude. Mix-A-Lot is still around, and his buddies TPOTUSA did that “Supersonics, Oh Yeah” song a few years ago. Perhaps one or the other or both of them can pen a personalized song for Griffey — or for the M’s as a whole. Seriously, they want to sell this team? Get the local talent on board. Get a theme song.
Or hey, they could just repurpose Mix’s greatest hit:
I…LIKE…BIG…BOPS
and I cannot lie
Those other teams can’t deny:
When he swings at the pitch
and his bat unloads
and he runs around the bases
and his knees don’t explode
Griffey’s come back!
Then again, that criteria didn’t exactly work for Omar Vizquel’s failed physical a few years back…but, of course, “Little O” was not quite as iconic as Griffey.
How about Stone Temple Pilots (even though not from Seattle, often considered “grunge”)
The chorus of “Creep”:
“I’m haaaalf the maaaan I uuuused to beeeeeee…”
Which reminds me of Jellyfish’s “Man I Used To Be”…
actually, Mix’s original lyric is appropriate as well…
Glory Days by Bruce Springsteen
And how could we forget Jackson Browne’s “Running On Empty” while we’re at it?
That’s a dumb thing to say. Grateful Dead is one of the definitive classic rock bands, and that is their most famous song. Just because it is their most famous one and came in their later years doesn’t means it’s sell-out music. Are you going to claim that the Beatles are all sell-out music? Or the Rolling Stones? Or any other classic rock song that became famous?
Too funny how The Boss spun the first two lines of that into football lyrics at the Super Bowl!
“Sanctified” on Pretty Hate Machine, one my most favorite records.
I love the rumor-mongering. So “dominant” is it that Baker is working on stories around a locker being cleared/moved. How about something about them ordering Griffey’s special soap?
Amen to that, brother! Though In The Dark was hardly my favorite Dead album (see American Beauty), it also wasn’t a total pile of poo by any stretch.
Also, I find it too funny some of the stuff that eventually winds up making Muzak’s playlist…I mean, I start feeling really old when I walk through a mall and hear a Muzak version of Journey’s “Wheel In The Sky”, for example.
My expectations are reasonably low for Junior’s return–as far as his actual production on the field.
I was a Brewers fan during the Aaron years, I know what this will look like.
Or, do I?
Polling the room:
Which will come back along with Junior first?
a) Teal Jerseys
b) Sleeveless Vest Jerseys
c) Turn Ahead The Clock Jerseys
(Sorry for the fashion-centric comment…but I’m working with Joan Rivers tonight.)
What I’m wondering is whether or not they’ve ordered the super-duper-comfy leather easy chair yet.
Hoya-
Joser is 100% correct…many bands make commercial tunes…they are called “sell-outs” by most…”Touch of Grey” is not only a terrible made for MTV song just to get the Dead a pay-check, but is a great example of great musicians selling out to make a buck…
My vote is for the teal jerseys — seems like they’d make a great idea for Retro Night!
Let’s not stray TOO far off-topic with the Grateful Dead discussion, please.
I didn’t mean to start a fight among dirty hippies!
(JUST KIDDING)
Jeff –
I guess I was one of the culprits here…sorry for the diversion!
Gosh, we must all just be itching for ST to start already…
Me too…I figured we’d get zapped…sorry…
The teal jerseys were the greatest. I’ve always wondered why they went away in the first place…
The teal would make a great third/alt home jersey…
I love the dark blue alternate right now (I have an ICHIRO!), but I’d buy a Griffey teal jersey if they made one…
As long as you guys play nice when we ask you to stop, no apologies necessary.
I know we’re all antsy waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Hello everyone, LONG time reader and a first time poster…
While I imagined contributing something more analytical with my first post, I couldn’t resist the temptation to be sentimental instead.
I am excited to have Griffey back, purely for nostalgic reasons, and look forward to getting tickets for several games this year while making the drive from Olympia. Having grown up during the Griffey years, something has seemed a bit off, ever since he left. I am glad that his career has come full-circle to the place where he should retire as it just seems right.
…and what about the theme from “Cheers” for Griffey’s plate appearances? “You wanna go, where everybody knows your name”
Thanks USS for all of your hard work in providing a forum for intellectual, analytical and intense discussion for all things Mariners related.
If you don’t think Griffey comming back is the best thing since sliced bread than you are not a fa…….J/k DMZ. I know my opinion is more subjective than objective evidence, but I believe Griffey will have an all star calliber bat with the mariners for two reasons. His knee is fully healed from last year and with a healthy year he hit in 2007 30 hr and 92 RBI with and OBS of 869. Second, he has hit only good when he has been in Seattle and his injuries that have plagued him occured when he left. I think mentally he will be leaps and bounds ahead of when he was in cinci or with the white sox.
[ot, I tried asking nicely]
[ot, I tried asking nicely]
His knee is fully healed from last year and with a healthy year he hit in 2007 30 hr and 92 RBI with and OBS of 869.
And the year before that, he hit worse than in 2008 (if you adjust for park and higher levels of offense in the NL that year).
Oh, and he was injured a good chunk of THAT year.
So, no, really we can’t take for granted that he’ll hit great and stay healthy.
Realistically, Griffey hasn’t been an All-Star level talent since 2005 (his 2007 basically ends up being like your average Raul Ibanez season at the plate when you adjust for park- good, but not All-Star worthy), and it’s pushing credulity to assume a 39 year old will hit like he did as a 35 year old, ESPECIALLY if he’s gravitated to a lower level of performance over multiple years.
Second, he has hit only good when he has been in Seattle
In an amazing coincidence, Junior also wasn’t 39 years old the last time he was in Seattle.
The odometer on your car doesn’t run in reverse. Why do you think that’s true for the human body?
Yeah, sorry about getting the dirty hippies’ tie-dyed panties in a twist. Especially since it’s so easy — like shooting Phish in a barrel.
Tee hee!
“Now batting. Center Fielder. Nummbber Twenty Four … Kennnnn Griffeyyyyyy Juniorrrrrr”
I hear the PA announcer in my sleep at night …
Is Buhner Buzz Cut next up?
I’m 15.