Yes, Griffey’s coming

DMZ · February 12, 2009 at 8:01 am · Filed Under Mariners 

We know it, you know it, Griffey knows it. There’s no need to post every rumor escalation in every thread.

This would be a fine comment thread to post them in, now that I think about it.

Comments

98 Responses to “Yes, Griffey’s coming”

  1. ManifestDestiny on February 12th, 2009 8:17 am

    If the worst thing that our new GM did this offseason was bring back an icon for a (hopefully) cheap year we weren’t going to realistically compete in anyways, I would have to consider that a pretty danged good offseason.

  2. bakomariner on February 12th, 2009 8:41 am

    Now that’s it’s all but official, I pray he doesn’t hurt the team…I’m hoping he hits .260, drives in 80+ RBI with 25+ HRs and plays no outfield…only DH…and of course he stays healthy all year…

    With a couple weeks to go in the season, he announces his retirement…the last home game, he starts in CF…

    First home game next season, retire his number…

    And that’s it…no more stories, rumors, and speculation…

    Done…

  3. ewdewald on February 12th, 2009 8:42 am

    I sort of agree with Manifest’s perspective. I look over Sports Weekly for stories. (Since they dropped analysis for NFL and NASCAR coverage) The latest power ranking:
    “#29 Seattle Mariners…More unclaimed jobs than any other team in the majors.”

    Fair statement, but I feel like if there were Power Rankings for a 2009 to 2011 period, we would be near the top. That’s a list I’d prefer to lead. Who will create that list?

  4. smb on February 12th, 2009 8:46 am

    Griffey in ’96! Griffey for DH!!

  5. MarinerDan on February 12th, 2009 8:50 am

    If it is Griffey, I am much happier than if we’d signed Anderson.

    Griffey on a one-year deal is not such a bad thing, given the current state of our club.

  6. Jeff Nye on February 12th, 2009 8:50 am

    *strangling noises*

  7. bakomariner on February 12th, 2009 9:00 am

    Whether it’s deserved or not, can you imagine the eruption when they announce him in the first home game…it will be insane…

  8. Lantern on February 12th, 2009 9:05 am

    Give it time. In 2 years we might see this off season as somewhat less amazing. If, lets say Valbuena, is a stud, Chavez isn’t better than Balentien, Gutierrez best season has 2008, and Putz has a couple seasons like 2007.
    Ok the last one isn’t going to happen, but the other 3 are not unlikely.

  9. hub on February 12th, 2009 9:10 am

    Whether it’s deserved or not, can you imagine the eruption when they announce him in the first home game…it will be insane…

    I just pre-ordered my plane ticket from Orlando to Seattle. I can’t miss this one.

  10. zackc on February 12th, 2009 9:12 am

    [ot]

  11. decatur7 on February 12th, 2009 9:15 am

    I was looking at Griffey on MLB video, and, if nothing else, he still has that same stance and swing that we all tried to copy when we were in little league. So at least we can enjoy that.

  12. SeasonTix on February 12th, 2009 9:18 am

    I’m not convinced Griffey is coming.

    I get the impression that Jack Z is NOT going to be swayed by fan emotions and/or pressure from the M’s FO.

    We’ll find out soon!

  13. Evan on February 12th, 2009 9:20 am

    I still hope Jack takes a cue from Jeff Sullivan and retires Griffey’s number rather than sign him.

  14. Soonerman22 on February 12th, 2009 9:22 am

    It will be great to see him wearing #24 again!

    I should probably set up my tent now for opening day tickets! He thought he got lots of love 2 years ago, imagine what will happen when he is in a Mariners Jersey again.

    Welcome Home Junior!!!

  15. Logger on February 12th, 2009 9:24 am

    I know what Griffey’s actual value is, but does anyone have a guess regarding the terms of this hypothetical one year contract?

  16. fiftyone on February 12th, 2009 9:27 am

    To sign Griffey is a no-brainer… for Jack Z.

    He doesn’t get blamed if Jr. gets hurt, since everyone basically expects an injury or two. He gets bushels of credit if Jr. has even one monster month.

    It gets the sentimental segment of the fan base on board (By the way, you CAN be number crunchy on the outside and surprisingly soft on the inside.)

    It gets him in Lincstrong’s good graces for the 40k-400k extra tickets sold as a result.

    It’s not clear that a better LH bat is available in free agency.

    It buys him an extraordinary amount of goodwill for future moves – it’s like an long-term investment of sorts. A cheap one.

  17. oldschool on February 12th, 2009 9:30 am

    Let’s see now, we were looking forward to the next eight months of hoping-against-hope that Franklin Gutierrez, Jeff Clement, Yuni Betancourt, Wladimir Balentien, et al, would, unlike hundreds of “hot prospects” before them, suddenly learn how to hit a major-league breaking ball. Maybe one of them will, we sure hope so, but… Welcome back, Junior, with the best swing and the most electrifying blasts this town has ever seen. My two teenage sons will actually turn on a Mariners game for the first time in three years.

  18. sass on February 12th, 2009 9:33 am

    There’s no way that FO isn’t behind this move. It’s frustrating that they would get a new GM and then handcuff him into bringing back a washed-up player when the rest of the offseason has been full of moves that make sense. There’s no way Z is stupid enough to make this move for no reason.

  19. DMZ on February 12th, 2009 9:36 am

    They probably had a talk with him a long time ago where they said “Do whatever you want this off-season, but if you sign Griffey, we’ve run the numbers, and we think signing him brings in another $1m in revenue over the season, so please consider that.”

  20. Steve T on February 12th, 2009 9:37 am

    The problem is, Griffey SUCKS ASS. All of the people going on about how great his swing is are forgetting (or unaware) that he’s the worst goddamn defensive outfielder in all of baseball. If he plays in the field he could hit 40 HR and be a net negative; if he only hits 20, he’s a Sexson-scale drag on this ballclub. Please, PLEASE DH him.

    He’s not going to do much for attendance, either, aside from Opening Day.

  21. Otto on February 12th, 2009 9:37 am

    If Z is being forced to make this move by the FO at least he didn’t jump up and offer him a boat load of money at the begining of the offseason.

  22. laracco on February 12th, 2009 9:38 am

    Even the people that are against this are secretly smiling in the back of their minds. It will be good to see him in an M’s uniform once again before he retires.

    And who is he taking AB’s away from? Balentien, Chavez? So what. Some will say the he’s taking away AB’s from Clement. The truth is, Johjima is taking away his AB’s.
    Welcome back Junior.

  23. Gustafson on February 12th, 2009 9:40 am

    There’s no way that FO isn’t behind this move. It’s frustrating that they would get a new GM and then handcuff him into bringing back a washed-up player when the rest of the offseason has been full of moves that make sense. There’s no way Z is stupid enough to make this move for no reason.

    If this were the case, he would have been signed months ago. Jack tried to get other guys but couldn’t clear the salary to do so… Of the current free agent, lefty bats with some power, who is Jack dying to sign that the front office won’t let him sign? No one. Abrue wasn’t coming here over the Halos for 5 mil. Anderson < Junior. And Dunn was out of our league financially (thanks for keeping Washburn, Chuck).

    So when you say “no way Z is stupid enough to make this move for no reason” I have to respond by saying, there is a reason. He needs a lefty bat with some power who can DH. There. There’s a reason. You might not like it but it’s not like signing Silva. Sheesh.

  24. Dave on February 12th, 2009 9:40 am

    The people who are not secretly for this, and like to flaunt their ignorance of how baseball works, are getting on everyone’s last nerve.

    You want Griffey back for sentimental reasons? Fine, no problem. You want Griffey back because you think playing him in LF is a good idea because Endy Chavez sucks? You’re not very smart.

  25. currcoug on February 12th, 2009 9:44 am

    The FO’s plan is working. I am purchasing airline tickets to Arizona for Spring Ball. I wasn’t going this year, until this news hit.

    Come summertime, I will take my family to see the greatest player ever to don a Mariner uniform. Last year was the first year I refused to attend Mariner games.

    If Junior is healthy, as Goldberg alleges, he will clearly be an asset, not a liability. I am looking forward to seeing 30 of Junior’s famous “moonshots”.

    Left field is his likely destination.

  26. bakomariner on February 12th, 2009 9:44 am

    I imagine he’ll see very little time in the outfield…at least I hope…

    And even though I might get jumped for this, even though we know he isn’t good in the OF anymore, can he be worse than Raul?

  27. gwangung on February 12th, 2009 9:45 am

    So when you say “no way Z is stupid enough to make this move for no reason” I have to respond by saying, there is a reason.

    Well, duh. (I’m agreeing with you, by the way).

    At the right price, under the right circumstances, Griffey is a good signing.

    Guess what, folks….this is the right circumstances…

  28. huhwhat on February 12th, 2009 9:47 am

    Call me an idiot but I’m for this trade just to get another Griffey Jersey. Hope he wears number 24 again.

  29. sass on February 12th, 2009 9:48 am

    I count making the team worse as no reason. We’re through with the Bavasi era, where he decides the team needs a “veteran left-hand DH with power,” and when he finds one that fits that role, declares the offseason a success. If you can find a player in that role that will actually make the team better in the long run, then fine. Z’s reluctance to sign a LH DH has been that there just weren’t good ones out there for the money they were asking for, and he knew that. This is something HowChuck wants, end of story.

  30. Gustafson on February 12th, 2009 9:52 am

    You want Griffey back for sentimental reasons? Fine, no problem. You want Griffey back because you think playing him in LF is a good idea because Endy Chavez sucks? You’re not very smart.

    I’m at (c) None of the Above.

    I want Chavez in left. And I’m not ONLY for Junior because of sentimental reasons. I want him to be the lefty DH. I don’t want him in the field. Period. His days as a useful OF are over. His days as a lefty with some pop are probably not over.

    Not sure that means I’m smart or not, just that I have eyes. And my eyes say he’s a DH only. But my eyes also say the Mariners currently don’t have much at the DH position.

  31. johndango on February 12th, 2009 9:52 am

    [long link -- use the link button]

  32. msb on February 12th, 2009 9:52 am

    Larry Stone weighs in

  33. Wood Dog on February 12th, 2009 9:52 am

    I think we can all agree that we aren’t winning the world series this year, right? So why NOT sit back, relax, and relive the glory days every game night with #24?

  34. laracco on February 12th, 2009 9:56 am

    That’s great that people are “not smart” when someone has a different opinion than yours Dave. I may not be a sabermetrics stat geek, but this I know:
    Endy Chavez 2008 = .267avg -.308OBP – 1HR-12RBI’s. Is his defense that great that I should overlook his absolute lack of offense? I didn’t say he sucks, but that’s not impressive.
    Can we just have something in this town to feel good about after 2008? Is it going to hurt the team that much to sign him at this point? What are the better options?

  35. sass on February 12th, 2009 10:01 am

    Is his defense that great that I should overlook his absolute lack of offense?

    Actually, yes. Check it out.

  36. fiftyone on February 12th, 2009 10:07 am

    Can we please leave Chavez out of any Griffey-related discussion?

    1. They don’t play the same position
    2. They don’t bring similar skill sets to the team
    3. They don’t hold the same place in team history

    This isn’t comparing apples and oranges, it’s comparing apples and pianos.

    I want Chavez in left. And I’m not ONLY for Junior because of sentimental reasons. I want him to be the lefty DH. I don’t want him in the field. Period. His days as a useful OF are over. His days as a lefty with some pop are probably not over.

    What he said.

  37. Dave on February 12th, 2009 10:07 am

    An opinion is “vanilla ice cream is good”. An opinion is not “I disagree with you about this factual thing that can be proven/disproven”.

    Like I said, if you want Griffey back because he’s a feel good story and he’ll make you buy more tickets and you like reminiscing about days gone by, great. No problems here.

    If you want Griffey back because you don’t understand how baseball teams actually win games, and you’re going to be begging for Griffey to play LF all the time, not great.

    Griffey shouldn’t play the field. If he’s used exclusively as a DH vs RHP, he won’t kill us. If he’s in the outfield regularly, the team will be worse than when he’s on the bench.

    You don’t have to agree with our opinions. Just don’t act like ignorance is a position worth defending.

  38. Tek Jansen on February 12th, 2009 10:11 am

    Endy Chavez is a better player, right now, than Griffey, particularly if you compare them as LFs in Safeco. I expect that Griffey rarely plays the field. The GM and manager have both placed a high priority on defense, which is why they acquired Chavez along with Guiterrez. They know that Griffey, circa 2009, is an abysmal defensive player. But, hey, signing him is better than Garret Anderson.

  39. laracco on February 12th, 2009 10:12 am

    I don’t care if Griffey plays in LF or DH’s, but to tell me that we are going to be much worse with Griffey in LF is laughable given the numbers that you had me look at.
    Seriously?.4 wins better. Wow.
    I think that I would rather watch Griffey than worry about Endy giving us a half a win that will really mean nothing during a lost season. That’s just my opinion and I don’t need to defend it.
    If you are excited by .4 wins, then so be it. Enjoy the season. Go M’s.

  40. ManifestDestiny on February 12th, 2009 10:13 am

    One thing that is for sure is that the marketing department is breathing a sigh of relief over this signing. Otherwise, who would you put in the hilarious commercials? Ichiro and Beltre are at thee WBC and “Big Richie” is gone, as is Rauuuuuuuuuuuul and noted prankster JJ.

    Time for Griff to be hilariously rammed down our throats all season long.

  41. msb on February 12th, 2009 10:14 am

    Are any of those clones of his still around? Do clones age, or are they more like androids?

  42. bakomariner on February 12th, 2009 10:16 am

    “Griffey shouldn’t play the field. If he’s used exclusively as a DH vs RHP, he won’t kill us. If he’s in the outfield regularly, the team will be worse than when he’s on the bench.”

    Beautiful…if Z and Griff realize this before they sign the dotted line, then sign away…

    Keep Chavez (or an ACTUAL upgrade like Swisher or Scott) in LF and have Griff and WLAD (although I’d like to see WLAD go) handle the DH spot…

    I’m all for a total defensive outfield…the only way we should bring in an offensive outfielder is if he can also play defense…Griff can’t play D…

  43. Jim_H on February 12th, 2009 10:17 am

    Finally, a reason to buy an M’s jersey!!

  44. bakomariner on February 12th, 2009 10:21 am

    There have been plenty players worth buying jerseys over…ICHIRO!, JJ, Beltre, Felix…

    I only have the dark blue Felix, but was planning on getting a JJ and ICHIRO! this spring…looks like the JJ will now be a Griffey…might get Beltre too…

  45. Steve T on February 12th, 2009 10:24 am

    can he be worse than Raul?

    According to UZR, Griffey is TWICE AS BAD as Raul in the corner outfield (RF for Griffey, LF for Raul). Griffey put up a -20.6 UZR/150 last year, and had the same cumulative UZR as Raul did for the season in just 91 games.

    Injury? He was significantly WORSE in 2007, his first regular year in right, and before that he was just insanely terrible in center — UZR/150 of -45.8 in ’04!

    Seriously, you’d be better off putting a bucket mounted to a remote controlled car in the outfield than Junior at this point. He is TERRIBLE, a TEAM KILLER. The people who are excited about having him back (and laugh at Chavez) don’t appear to grasp the importance of defense. Runs saved are even better than runs scored.

  46. Philly M's fan on February 12th, 2009 10:25 am

    [this is not a board]

  47. bakomariner on February 12th, 2009 10:26 am

    From watching Raul play every game last year, I can’t honestly imagine something worse out there…not saying the metrics are wrong at all…I just can’t really visualize it…

  48. Steve T on February 12th, 2009 10:27 am

    How exactly do you “relive the glory days” by watching a broken-down old dude strike out and hobble after easy fly balls going for triples? Seems to me what you’re doing is OVERWRITING those cherished memories.

  49. Gustafson on February 12th, 2009 10:28 am

    Seriously, you’d be better off putting a bucket mounted to a remote controlled car in the outfield than Junior at this point. He is TERRIBLE, a TEAM KILLER. The people who are excited about having him back (and laugh at Chavez) don’t appear to grasp the importance of defense. Runs saved are even better than runs scored.

    How is that relevant for a DH? (I know you were responding to the nonsensical arguments that he should play LF. But few people are arguing that. Ignore them)

  50. hub on February 12th, 2009 10:28 am

    An argument for ‘Junior in LF’ may be no more valid than an argument for ‘Endy at DH’.

  51. Philly M's fan on February 12th, 2009 10:33 am

    [still not a board]

  52. TumwaterMike on February 12th, 2009 10:34 am

    I don’t think he’ll hurt or help the team. It’s probably a neutral move, but since the M’s are unlikely to contend this year and it brings back some fans, what’s the harm?

  53. Steve T on February 12th, 2009 10:35 am

    Must…have…faith…in…Wakamatsu.

  54. eponymous coward on February 12th, 2009 10:36 am

    I think that I would rather watch Griffey than worry about Endy giving us a half a win that will really mean nothing during a lost season.

    Since you know it’s a lost season, do you have any lottery numbers for me?

    Seriously? The 2008 AL West isn’t very good- Oakland and Anaheim look like ~85 win teams right now, and the M’s look like a ~78 win one, not much different from last year… except with more young players with upside.

    Quite frankly, the Mariners have no business spending 90 million dollars if the idea isn’t to actually compete and make the team better. If they want nostalgia, hell, sign Edgar, Buhner, Boone, Alvin Davis and Langston to play with Griffey. Hey, why not- let’s have even MORE nostalgia!

    Why can’t we just accept that, yes, Ken Griffey WAS a great player, but he’s not any more, and it would be nice to have a team do their best to win and use players in their most appropriate role. Griffey’s a reasonable signing as the LH DH, getting playing time against RHP and the occasional PH appearance. He’s not worth giving fans warm fuzzies by playing the OF, any more than having Ichiro be the closer is worth it, cool as THAT might be. Let’s try to have the positive feeling that comes from as many Mariner wins as possible.

  55. Steve T on February 12th, 2009 10:37 am

    The worst thing is that Dave Niehaus is certainly going to expire from excitement the first time Junior hits one of his patented bombs to the edge of the infield grass.

  56. Wood Dog on February 12th, 2009 10:37 am

    Just look at Griffey as an upgrade to Vidro at DH, and I think we will all be happy.

  57. Jeff Nye on February 12th, 2009 10:37 am

    Endy giving us a half a win that will really mean nothing during a lost season.

    Why do people keep saying this as if it’s axiomatic?

    Most projections peg the Mariners for the mid-70s in wins, which isn’t great to be sure; but there is significant potential for upside on the roster from a variety of players that could easily push them into the 80s, as the roster is constructed RIGHT NOW. And in a weak AL West, that could be enough.

    The Mariners aren’t going to lose 101 games again, and are a significantly better team RIGHT NOW than they were last season. This isn’t a Cleveland-style rebuild where we’re going to suck for several years in a row.

    And yes, Endy Chavez offers more value in LF than Griffey would there, when their defensive abilities are properly taken into account; if you disagree with that, your “opinion” probably isn’t worth defending.

  58. Jeff Nye on February 12th, 2009 10:40 am

    Darn you epo, you beat me to my argument. :(

  59. Philly M's fan on February 12th, 2009 10:44 am

    I live on the East Coast, and have seen Endy play plenty of times. He is a good player and fast, but I think people on here are giving him way too much credit. He has been basically a reserve OF for his entire career–he has 610 PA total for the past 3 years and no more than 353PA in 1 year with the mets. Griffey will have a better year and much more impact on this team then USS Mariner gives him credit for, and I hope they admit this when they are wrong come Sept.

  60. Dave on February 12th, 2009 10:48 am

    I also live on the east coast and have seen Endy play plenty of times. He is a good player and fast, and I think people on here are not giving him enough credit.

    Now what?

    Maybe we just realize that summary opinions are pretty worthless and just move on to what we can actually prove and disprove. What a great idea!

  61. DMZ on February 12th, 2009 10:48 am

    Wait, so he’ll have a better year and more impact than we’re already giving him credit for? Are we supposed to credit him ahead of time? Or do you think we’ve been too down on his potential contributions?

  62. Dave on February 12th, 2009 10:54 am

    I think 75% of our readers think we’re idiots and see Chavez as a horrible player.

  63. Philly M's fan on February 12th, 2009 10:55 am

    Chavez has 23 hits, 108 hits, and 43 hits the past 3 seasons–not exactly the type of numbers that guarantee a starting LF spot. Ok I agree he is great in the outfield and will make plays out there, but to act like a future Hall of Famer and best player in Franchise History couldnt do just as well out there is asinine. Projections aren’t always right–I seriously doubt anybody projected Brady Anderson to hit 50 HR’s one season. How this became Chavez vs Griffey doesn’t make any sense to me–put them both out there in spring training and may the best man win–if Griffey loses he is a DH, and if Chavez loses he is a reserve OF which he has been his whole career.

  64. Dave on February 12th, 2009 10:57 am

    Tell you what – when you figure out why total hits aren’t a good indicator of ability and what a projection actually projects (you know, probability), we’ll listen to you.

  65. Paul B on February 12th, 2009 10:57 am

    If stats in Spring Training were actually predictive, a couple of the best players in Mariner history would be Morse and Bloomquist.

  66. Alex on February 12th, 2009 10:59 am

    I’d love to see Griffey DH, mostly for nostalgic reasons. (I’ve still got all those signed Griffey rookie cards, gotta root for him to pad his home run total).
    But if he plays in the field (very much) it wont be a good thing. I’d rather see the Ms utilize their defense and make Washburn/Silva/Etc look better, so we can unload them. And hopefully, make some of our new relievers look better than they are, so we can get good value for them.

    I trust that Zduriencik knows what he is doing with Griffey, and will utilize his strong defensive outfielders, because he traded for them for that purpose.

    We should just have a new closer battle every year, and then when someone gets hot as the closer, trade them for good value like in the Putz trade. When someone pitches well in the 9th instead of the 7th or 8th, many teams are falling all over themselves to overvalue that player.

  67. laracco on February 12th, 2009 11:07 am

    Since you know it’s a lost season, do you have any lottery numbers for me?

    Can’t the same be said for your opinion that Griffey will be bad? Somehow you know that for sure, but I can’t know that the M’s are going to have a bad season? Interesting.

  68. joealb1 on February 12th, 2009 11:09 am

    Dave, I think 75% of the readers here understand why Endy is a very good player. I just think that most of that 75% are like me, They don’t post much unless they have something to add to the discussion. Thanks to you and the rest of the USSM crowd for all you write!

  69. hub on February 12th, 2009 11:11 am

    Is the projectionable consensus that Junior can be to Seattle what Floyd was to TB in ’08? With the sentimental name of ‘Junior’ on top of it? Thats what I’m hoping for anyway. Is that too far off base?

  70. DMZ on February 12th, 2009 11:12 am

    Why do people think we believe Griffey’s going to be *bad*? He’s horrible defensively, that’s something everyone can agree on. But as a DH, I see a guy who’ll hit .250-.265 with a decent on-base percentage, maybe slug .450, and I hope we get 400 PA out of him. I’d be happy for that. And I’m worried about the health issues, sure.

    I don’t… I don’t see what’s crazy about that.

  71. msb on February 12th, 2009 11:13 am

    Why do people think we believe Griffey’s going to be *bad*?

    Tchaw. Because you hate the Mariners.

    Everyone knows that.

  72. Philly M's fan on February 12th, 2009 11:16 am

    How about Chavez with total bases of 32, 152, and 57 the past 3 years. Don’t get me wrong I like Endy and thought he was a good pick up, but to act like he is irreplaceable in LF just isn’t correct. If I had a choice of Chavez and Griffey and the M’s could only keep 1 of them I’m going with Griffey. Like they say in boxing a puncher always has a puncher’s chance. Griffey’s upside when healthy far outweighs Chavez’ great D and liability at the plate. We have 1 great SP, our #2 was hurt last year, and mediocre # 3,4, and 5 SP with no proven closer. You have to score some runs to win especially with this group, and Ichiro will get a lot of stuff Griffey wouldnt anyway. Much like what the Phils did last year with Victorino in CF and Burrell in LF.

  73. jvalentine on February 12th, 2009 11:17 am

    It is clear that Junior is in the twilight of his career. And I am the biggest fan the move to bring Chavez in and starting him 70% of the time in left field (esp. with Wash, Brandon and Bedard’s tendancy to get majority of thier outs via the fly ball) while giving Jr. the DH spots.

    Then when you have Felix and Silva (yikes!) start you can contemplate letting Griffey play a little LF for 7 innings to make the fans smile letting the DH spot go to Clement et. all.

  74. DMZ on February 12th, 2009 11:19 am

    Ichiro is going to run from right to center to left to catch flies Griffey can’t get to? Sooo… Griffey’s going to play left in this world?

    Also: Griffey’s upside when healthy far outweighs Chavez’ great D and liability at the plate.

    It doesn’t. It really doesn’t. In the field, Griffey’s that bad. He’s historically bad.

  75. eponymous coward on February 12th, 2009 11:20 am

    Can’t the same be said for your opinion that Griffey will be bad?

    No, saying that Griffey has terrible defensive metrics in the OF (which he does) is noting statistics, just like noting batting average, slugging percentages, and home runs. Drawing a conclusion from that (“he should stick to being a DH”) is an argument supported by evidence.

    Unless you know the future (which would be YOUR supporting evidence), you can’t know if the M’s season is lost. The odds aren’t in the M’s FAVOR of winning the West (the available evidence through sabremetric projections is out there projecting the AL West winner as a mid-80′s winning team, and the M’s as somewhat behind them and slightly under .500), but that’s not the same as saying “it’s a lost season”, since random luck and bad/good breaks in player development and injury that aren’t knowable could easily overwhelm the projections.

    Also, I just got through saying Griffey’s an OK option as a DH against RHP (again, available evidence indicates he’s been pretty useless against LHP since his last really good season, 2005). What is the problem with evaluating Griffey for what he is, as opposed to assuming he’s an All-Star talent still (because he’s not, at age 39, but that’s not unusual given his injury history and age)?

  76. JerBear on February 12th, 2009 11:25 am

    Since you know it’s a lost season, do you have any lottery numbers for me?

    Can’t the same be said for your opinion that Griffey will be bad? Somehow you know that for sure, but I can’t know that the M’s are going to have a bad season? Interesting.

    Again, it’s all about probabilities. Truthfully, yes, the odds are greater that the team has a (admittedly long) shot at contention this year, than that Griffey will be an all-around good player.

    We can look at the projections for this roster, the potential upside of the younger players, the weakened division, etc. and estimate their probability of contention.

    Just like we can look at the projections for Junior, his lack of upside, his age, injuries, traceable decline etc. and estimate what kind of a player he will be this year.

    That said, I’ve still done a 180, and I want to see Junior on the team – mostly for sentimental reasons, and ONLY as a DH in a limited role.

  77. Jeff Nye on February 12th, 2009 11:27 am

    Basically, if he’s just at DH, he’s a moderately good if overpriced pickup for the team. The more he attempts and fails to play defense, whether it’s due to need or pressure from him/the fans/the media, the more his value disappears, to the point where he quickly will be of negative value to the team.

  78. Max Power on February 12th, 2009 11:31 am

    That said, I’ve still done a 180, and I want to see Junior on the team – mostly for sentimental reasons, and ONLY as a DH in a limited role.

    I don’t know – I don’t have any sentimentality about it for what it’s worth but I just don’t think the odds of this playing out well come July & September are all that good.

    From the org’s standpoint, if Griffey pulls a 2008 Sexson, then there may be some real problems with the signing. Even if he’s not getting paid much, you’re still stuck with a boat anchor on the roster who you can’t remove for someone more productive because of the same sentimentality reasons that lead to the signinig in the first place.

  79. eponymous coward on February 12th, 2009 11:33 am

    You know, all this sturm und drang wouldn’t be happening if we were signing Greg Norton to play some DH for us (Greg Norton’s stats, 2006-2008: .271/.369/.447). We’d be thinking “well, not an awesome pickup, but kinda useful LH bat” (Norton’s a switch-hitter, but is pretty much useless against LHP, like Griffey).

    But since it’s OMG GRIFFEY SQUEEEE instead of Random LH Bat, if you point out limitations and suggest the guy isn’t likely to have huge upside, apparently you’re worse than Hitler or something.

  80. Mariner Fan in CO Exile on February 12th, 2009 11:34 am

    I think 75% of our readers think we’re idiots and see Chavez as a horrible player.

    I understand how it feels to fight the same battles over and over. You and I had a nice little exchange when I first came around this site several years ago, when I knew nothing, but thought I knew it all about baseball statistics and measure of worth, contribution and how teams win. Our exchange royally pissed me off. In arguing with you I researched a lot. Then the analytical world opened up. I started trying to understand more about the game.

    I am a better fan now. I don’t automatically understand new metrics, but I take the time to learn what I can. I know you’re probably frustrated with the various ways fans come at these things, and how they like to fight to the death over these arguments with little support, but 75% is an exaggeration, and I think you should view the process of what you do for strong-willed but uninformed folks who are new to this like a medical treatment that goes one of two ways (and I am speaking as a formerly infected person):

    1. –
    a – medicine administered against disease of ignorance;
    b. – disease resists, digs in, patient gets worse and seems resistant;
    c. – stronger doses administered;
    d. – disease still resists, but is weakened; patient becomes delirious before fever breaks, starts making irrational comments;
    e. – medicine takes hold; antibodies creating a desire to learn develop;
    f. – patient beats disease, starts to become healthy.

    Or it could go this way (though this percentage is much smaller, I am convinced).

    2. –
    a – medicine administered against disease of ignorance;
    b. – disease resists, digs in, patient gets worse and seems resistant;
    c. – stronger doses administered;
    d. – disease of ignorance has weakened immune system to the point that secondary viruses of extreme pride and anger cause flatline and death.

    Most of us go through the first scenario. Some go through the second. I wouldn’t overestimate how many of the latter there are, among those who actually read this site on a regular basis. The Flatliners are loud, but not as numerous as they seem.

  81. JerBear on February 12th, 2009 11:39 am

    From the org’s standpoint, if Griffey pulls a 2008 Sexson, then there may be some real problems with the signing. Even if he’s not getting paid much, you’re still stuck with a boat anchor on the roster who you can’t remove for someone more productive because of the same sentimentality reasons that lead to the signinig in the first place.

    Yeah, I understand that fear, but my impression is that Zduriencik pulls enough weight that he could use Junior off the bench if necessary. We’ll know more when we hear contract details, but this isn’t an $11m acquisition who’s expected to play the field every day. As has been mentioned, I think Cliff Floyed is a more apt comparison for roles. And there’s definitely sentimentality involved, but considering that it’s taken this long, and Z has pursued every other angle, I don’t think it’s JUST and emotional signing. In a cheap, limited role, it’s a good pick up.

  82. Philly M's fan on February 12th, 2009 11:40 am

    Ichiro is going to run from right to center to left to catch flies Griffey can’t get to? Sooo… Griffey’s going to play left in this world?

    My bad DMZ I forgot about Gutierrez in CF for a second. Im just saying that Jr as a DH and part-time OF for 5 million a year, isn’t half as bad as some might think it is. He had 18 HR, 71 RBI and 208 TB in 490 PA last year and he wasn’t even healthy. I think if he is used right and gets the at bats he needs he will better those numbers and will be an asset to the M’s. It is a low risk high reward type acquisition that Z is known for.

  83. DMZ on February 12th, 2009 11:43 am

    If they sign him for $5m he needs to be better than that to be worth it, so it wouldn’t be a high reward signing in that case. Look at what Dunn/etc got: the going rate for massively better production is not much more than $5m.

    Also, there’s an assumption there that he will be healthy, which we don’t know, and that HR/RBI/TB are a good way to measure his decline, which they aren’t.

  84. the other benno on February 12th, 2009 11:45 am

    I am far from even barely competent to understand how many of the metrics used by Dave and DMZ are arrived at, but even I can understand that

    “a future Hall of Famer and best player in Franchise History couldnt do just as well out there”

    is not something you can base anything on other than your own opinion. Using this argument you could be saying that we should be signing [insert any Hall-eligible, franchise-defining player here]. Being a future HOFer and BPIFH do not mean that today, right here and now, that player is better than any other given player. If you can’t understand this, you have less business commenting on this blog than I do.

  85. bakomariner on February 12th, 2009 11:48 am

    JAC on Prospect Insider is reporting that it’s a done deal for 1 year…

  86. DMZ on February 12th, 2009 11:49 am

    See post title.

  87. Auggeydog on February 12th, 2009 11:49 am

    I have thought bringing Griffey back was a good idea for awhile. I think as most do as a DH only though. Run him in the outfield every once in awhile so he can play, but not too much. The other thing I see is club house leadership. The M’s are lacking that, Griffey can get in and chew some butt on the younger kids. I admit I have not followed him as close as when he was here, but with his past the younger guys should listen to him. I would say that would be worth the salary in itself.

  88. eponymous coward on February 12th, 2009 11:50 am

    He had 18 HR, 71 RBI and 208 TB in 490 PA last year and he wasn’t even healthy.

    He also played in two good hitter’s parks (Safeco isn’t one, even if you’re a lefty- it just doesn’t screw you as badly as if you’re a righty), in the weaker league for a big chunk of last year and he doesn’t hit LHP any more (he didn’t in 2007 or 2006 either, so it’s not “the knee”). As a matter of fact, his adjusted OPS+ was LOWER in 2006 than in 2008.

    I think if he is used right and gets the at bats he needs he will better those numbers and will be an asset to the M’s;

    The way to make him an asset to the team is to minimize his weaknesses, which are a) playing the field and b) hitting against LHP. That means he should probably see LESS playing time than last year, not more.

  89. Steve T on February 12th, 2009 12:06 pm

    Wait, am I the only one who wants to see if Griffey can break -50 UZR playing right every day? Or, what the hell, put him in center, just like the old days, and see if he can get down to -100!

  90. TranquilPsychosis on February 12th, 2009 12:11 pm

    Griffey will have a better year and much more impact on this team then USS Mariner gives him credit for, and I hope they admit this when they are wrong come Sept.

    The agrument isn’t that jr won’t have impact. The argument is that his best potential impact is at DH vs. RHP. It’s his fielding(or rather the lack thereof) that we don’t want to see.

  91. Kazinski on February 12th, 2009 12:58 pm

    Can we bring back Edgar or Buhner, to platoon with Jr. at the DH?

  92. sass on February 12th, 2009 1:05 pm

    if Griffey pulls a 2008 Sexson

    More likely he pulls a 2008 Griffey (tripping over something in the locker room and being severely crippled the rest of the season).

  93. JerBear on February 12th, 2009 1:31 pm

    I love how (after deciding it’s a vital component of a good team) people arbitrarily decide who’s a “good clubhouse leader” and who isn’t. I love Griff, but he was a total prima donna. I will never understand why the media fawns over Junior and villfies Ichiro.

  94. scott19 on February 12th, 2009 1:32 pm

    As for the chilling prosepect of Jr. “playing” left field, I’ll borrow (and mutilate) a chorus from an old pop song: “Griffey’s comin’…hide the gloves, guys!”

    Can we bring back Edgar or Buhner, to platoon with Jr. at the DH?

    With Howie & Chuckie still lurking around the premises, they shouldn’t be given any ideas. :o

  95. decatur7 on February 12th, 2009 1:50 pm

    Jerbear -

    I think that it comes down to access. Griffey, as I recall, usually talked to the press everyday and gave them quotes and lines that they could plug into their ready-made narrative. Ichiro, although he’s fluent in English by now, still talks through a translator and says surprising, inscrutable things. It’s gotta be frustrating as hell for a beatwriter to write about Ichiro – although I love Ichiro for making it that way. I’m sure there’s some good articles and blogposts at USSM and LL about this but I don’t remember where they are.

  96. et_blankenship on February 12th, 2009 3:56 pm

    Griffey is a traitor and an empty shell of his former self, but whatever. Griffey is the Trojan horse before every fan who can’t understand the payroll slashing and accumulation of no-name players.

  97. joser on February 12th, 2009 8:28 pm

    C’mon, Griffey is not an “empty shell.” His legs, at least, are full of glass.

  98. joser on February 13th, 2009 1:06 am

    Just under 100 comments here, plus about the same in the next thread. The equivalent over at LL has close to 600 and it’s still raging. Sometimes that site amuses me to no end. Sometimes it terrifies and exhausts me.

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