The M’s rotation, projected
In tinkering with the projection setup for next season, I noticed something… odd that I wanted to share.
Here’s the ZiPS projections for the M’s rotation candidates next year, in terms of quality-per-inning:
Bedard
[gap]
Felix and Morrow
[gap]
Batista, RRS, Washburn, Silva
Here’s the same for PECOTA:
Felix, Bedard
[small gap]
Morrow
[small gap]
RRS, Washburn
[gap]
Batista, Silva
And on and on:
Marcel: Bedard, Felix, Morrow, RRS, Silva, Washburn, Batista
Bill James: Felix, Bedard, Morrow, RRS, Washburn, Silva, Batista
CHONE: Bedard, Felix, Morrow, RRS, Silva, Washburn, Batista
It’s generally assumed that it’s Rowland-Smith and Batista who’ll head for the bullpen. But strictly in terms of who’d help the team most in the rotation, everyone who’s taken a crack at this seems to think at least RRS should be ahead of Silva, and possibly ahead of Washburn.
Now I get that maybe the team wants to try and start Washburn as the most tradeable of the three bad starter contracts right now. But Silva… the contract’s a done deal, they’re paying him either way. If the objective is to put the best team out there, Rowland-Smith certainly shouldn’t be counted out yet.
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From what I can tell on Fangraphs, the projections for RRS are largely based on him primarily pitching in relief:
RRS:
James – 4.02 FIP, 37 appearances, 20 starts (154 IP)
CHONE – 4.01 FIP, 55 appearances, 0 starts (65 IP)
Marcel – 4.24 FIP, ?? appearances, ?? starts (95 IP)
ZiPS – 4.57 FIP, 47 appearances, 7 starts (98 IP)
Felix’s projections are all based on his numbers as a starter. As are Silva, Washburn, and Bedard’s projections. James and ZiPS have Morrow as a starter while CHONE and Marcel are projecting him as a reliever. Batista’s projections have him pitching in both roles.
What’s the general improvement a starter gets from moving to the bullpen? Doesn’t that need to go the other way to RRS’s projections for 2009 if you are looking at him as a full time starter?
So if a replacement level reliever has a FIP of 4.5 and a starter has a FIP of 5.5, let’s call the difference between starting and relieving 1.0 of FIP.
RRS’s adjusted projections as starter (6.2 IP per start):
James – 4.02 FIP + 20.2 IP (RP) / 154 IP (total) = 4.15 FIP
CHONE – 4.01 FIP + 65 IP (RP) / 65 IP (total) = 5.01 FIP
Marcel – 4.24 FIP + 48.1 IP (RP) / 95 IP (total) = 4.75 FIP
ZiPS – 4.57 FIP + 51.1 IP (RP) / 98 IP (total) = 5.09 FIP
I assume you meant bullpen there.
Does James not rate Morrow at all?
Fixed and fixed.
I don’t know what adjustments the different projection systems make (except PECOTA).
Zduriencik was on KJR sometime last week and discussed the rotation and RRS. He mentioned that he needed to have people fit into places where they could succeed. I interpretted this as him saying that while RRS might be capable of equalling the production of a Wash or Silva as a starter, neither Wash nor Silva would be effective in relief (whereas RRS would). Sure, Silva is paid either way, but if he isn’t contributing as a starter, then he is just taking up space. Actually, he always does that.
I have a little tool I made a few years ago to convert starter/swingman/relief projections to full-time starter or reliever (based on all role conversion since 1920).
So for the ZiPS projection for Rowland-Smith, I get:
Full-time starter: 4.91 ERA
Full-time reliever: 3.94 ERA
Batista’s another pitcher in the middle in ZiPS, based on the 5.27 projected ERA with 23 starts/13 relief appearances would be:
Full-time starter: 5.45 ERA
Full-time reliever: 4.47 ERA
Obviously, this tool makes the assumption that a reliever in question would have the requisite endurance to be a starter, so I wouldn’t use this for relievers that have no recent history of starting.
Silva’s been a competent reliever before. Anyone who says he wouldn’t be effective at it is basically conceding that he’s not going to be effective at all. That’s known as a sunk cost.
My question that no one has mentioned yet, is why don’t they send him to Tacoma if he doesn’t fit into the rotation this year? That way he can get starts in Tacoma, and would be ready to go when the Mariners trade or cut Washburn. Also you won’t have to do that same thing the Mariners did last year in trying to stretch him out in the big leagues after being a relief pitcher for 4 months. You won’t have 3 and 4 inning starts.
I have no scientific proof, but I think it would be better for his arm. He might be pissed about the demotion, but in the long run I think it would be better in the event he doesn’t make the rotation, which I don’t think he will only as a matter of circumstance not because he doesn’t belong there.
They need to send Silva to Tacoma…if he refuses, cut his fat ass…
They’d never eat that salary, but God would it be nice…
Silva had a 4.63 FIP last year. You realize that all these “cut him, he’s useless” comments are simply based his ’08 results, right?
How long do we have to rail against results based analysis before people stop doing it. Silva is what he always is, and with a good defense behind him, will be a decent enough #5 starter.
This team is better with Silva in the rotation and Rowland-Smith in the pen than vice versa.
Do people really think that Bedard should be the number one over Felix? This seems strange to me.
I’m not sure who is saying that. Regardless, it doesn’t matter. The purpose of this thread seems to be determining which five should start. Felix and Bedard are obviously locks and are the top 2 guys in the rotation. Who cares who is #1 or #2?
I suspect that given injuries and trades, RRS will begin the year in the ‘pen but still make at least 15 starts, and maybe more. Maybe he spot starts during a double-header caused by a rainout, or if Morrow, who will not throw 200 innings, simply needs a rest. And unless the M’s are near first place, there is no way both Wash and the Interview are on the team after the trading deadline.
I can’t stand Silva, but if you want to get any value back from that bloated contract, the M’s have to see if he can become a league average innings eater (strong emphasis on “eater”), which is essentially what RRS projects to be.
The reason RRS won’t start the season in Tacoma as a starter is that he is one of the 12 best pitchers on the roster.
and Zduriencik grasps the concept of sunk cost.
Felix was one of our 12 best pitchers a few years ago and we didn’t put him in the rotation. I think there is a difference between 12 best pitchers and 5 best starters (Which Silva and Washburn aren’t but will still make it because of there contracts) and 7 best relievers/ “Role Pitchers”. (Which Batista isn’t but he has the contract)
All I am saying is that if the team sees RRS as a starter in the future isn’t in the teams best interest to start developing him as a starter?
The fall of 2009 can’t come fast enough and we will be rid of Wash and Batista!!!
Felix and RRS are/were at different developmental stages. RRS isn’t going to learn anything or improvie by being sent to the minors. And having him work some relief for a few months won’t retard his development as a starter. He is starting in spring training, and he will be starting soon enough once the season starts. I doubt that 2009 will be a repeat of 2003, when the original five starters made all 162 starts.
I’ll admit that I’m probably over emphasizing his actual ERA, but he’s not a good pitcher. FIP is generous with Silva because it doesn’t take into account that his pitch to contact skills are pitch to line drive skills. His tRA was 5.9, his tRA* 5.4 and that lies squarely between with 2006 and 2007 tRA*, which means that it’s probably a good estimate of his true talent. 5.4 tRA is basically replacement level. So, whatever the reasons behind the assessment, the conclusion looks like it’s pretty sound. Silva is a replacement level pitcher. I say we start RRS and see if he can manifest better than replacement level skill rather than going with the known replacement level quantity that is Carlos Silva.
Carlos Silva at statscorner.
Larry Stone reports not the best of news for Brandon Morrow.
Trying to start RRS instead of Silva might be going a bit overboard. Might cause for a marginal improvement at best but it doesn’t strike me as worth the trouble. I don’t like Silva but he seems like a pretty good bet to bounce back, especially with improved defense.
Now Morrow on the other hand….Yea, he looks nice in the middle of the rotation but these recent developments no doubt make it more likely that Morrow is going to be monitored with extreme caution. If RRS is going to be seeing any rotation action it will most likely be spot-starting for Morrow during the regular season.
Which is why you do need more than five people you think can be starters….
(That’s one thing Bavasi was right about….)
Is the benefit of RRS over Washburn worth the gamble that Washburn as a starter behind a better defense makes him somewhat attractive as trade bait?
Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn’t a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. He is in a contract year, he had a 3.20 ERA in 2005 and won 18 games in 2002. I would rather see RRS out there, but he will be fine in the pen for now. Silva had a 5.94 ERA in 2006, then bounced back to win 13 and post a 4.19 ERA and win a huge contract from Seattle. he was 14-8 in 2004 and had a 3.44 ERA in 2005. And as everyone who reads this blog is well aware, the improved OF Defense helps both considerably. Hopefully, Morrow is going to OK, because they really need him to get in 100+ innings as a starter this year. Lets wait and see how Silva & Washburn perform this year, before we act like it will be a replay of 2008.
Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn’t a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. He is in a contract year, he had a 3.20 ERA in 2005 and won 18 games in 2002. I would rather see RRS out there, but he will be fine in the pen for now. Silva had a 5.94 ERA in 2006, then bounced back to win 13 and post a 4.19 ERA and win a huge contract from Seattle. he was 14-8 in 2004 and had a 3.44 ERA in 2005. And as everyone who reads this blog is well aware, the improved OF Defense helps both considerably. Hopefully, Morrow is going to OK, because they really need him to get in 100+ innings as a starter this year. Lets wait and see how Silva & Washburn perform this year, before we act like it will be a replay of 2008.
Why are you telling us about ERA? No one in these parts much cares about an ERA until you can show that it’s substantial deviation from FIP and similar models of run prevention are based on something that the pitcher actually controls. If what I am saying is totally foreign to you, see the link “Evaluating Pitcher Talent” under “Reference Material” in the side bar.