The M’s rotation, projected
In tinkering with the projection setup for next season, I noticed something… odd that I wanted to share.
Here’s the ZiPS projections for the M’s rotation candidates next year, in terms of quality-per-inning:
Felix and Morrow
Batista, RRS, Washburn, Silva
Here’s the same for PECOTA:
And on and on:
Marcel: Bedard, Felix, Morrow, RRS, Silva, Washburn, Batista
Bill James: Felix, Bedard, Morrow, RRS, Washburn, Silva, Batista
CHONE: Bedard, Felix, Morrow, RRS, Silva, Washburn, Batista
It’s generally assumed that it’s Rowland-Smith and Batista who’ll head for the bullpen. But strictly in terms of who’d help the team most in the rotation, everyone who’s taken a crack at this seems to think at least RRS should be ahead of Silva, and possibly ahead of Washburn.
Now I get that maybe the team wants to try and start Washburn as the most tradeable of the three bad starter contracts right now. But Silva… the contract’s a done deal, they’re paying him either way. If the objective is to put the best team out there, Rowland-Smith certainly shouldn’t be counted out yet.