The Clement Problem
So, we need to talk about Jeff Clement. The chatter continues to grow louder that the Mariners may hand Rob Johnson the back-up catcher position, which would give Clement a ticket to Tacoma. With Griffey in the fold at DH, the only way for Clement to get regular playing time is to spend significant time behind the plate, and even with a new coaching staff in place ready to be impressed, Clement hasn’t opened many eyes so far. With Johjima returning from the WBC, the team is going to have to figure out which young catcher they want to keep getting work in Cactus League games, so this decision could happen sooner than later.
From my point of view, the team has three reasonable options with regards to Clement.
1. Put him on the 25 man roster, give him ~60% of the playing time behind the plate for the season, and make a decision once and for all on whether he can handle the defensive responsibilities of being a big league catcher while also developing into the kind of hitter he has the potential to be.
2. Put an end to his days at catcher, tell him that his hard work to improve behind the plate is appreciated but is now holding back his offensive development, and turn him into a first baseman. He’d go to Tacama and work on learning a new position and focus on his offensive game.
3. Trade him to a team that thinks higher of him than they do for a piece that fits into the organizational puzzle a bit better than he does.
I’d go with Option A, personally, but I’m okay with any of these three (well, the last one obviously depends on what you get back). I think it’s worth finding out if Clement can stick as a major league catcher, and this is the kind of season that’s made for experiments. If it works, great, you’ve got a big asset. If it doesn’t, you didn’t torpedo a season in which you’re expecting to win the division, and now you can make better informed decisions going forward.
But if the team is already convinced that he’s just not a major league catcher, or that he’s at least not good enough to keep Adam Moore from taking his job next year, then the team has to figure out if they would rather force him into a positional move he doesn’t want to make in order to keep his bat in the organization or if they’re better off shopping him to a team like Boston who might be willing to part with some interesting pieces to get him. I’d bet on Clement ending up at 1B/DH eventually, regardless of what organization he’s in, but he’s made it abundantly clear that he has no interest in moving right now, and trying to force that position switch on him at this stage could get ugly.
There is a fourth option, of course, but it’s one I hope the team avoids. That would be just sending Clement back to Tacoma to split time behind the plate with Moore. Having him crush Triple-A pitching again won’t do his offensive development any good, they won’t figure out if he’s going to be able to catch well enough in the majors if he’s splitting time in Triple-A, and there’s a real chance that he could nuke his trade value if he struggles after being sent back to the PCL. Like it or not, a bad year from Clement in Tacoma makes him start to look like the new Jeremy Reed, and all of the sudden, a potentially valuable asset is a spare part that you’re using as a trade throw-in.
I think the club should find out just what they have in him by letting him sink or swim in the majors this year. But if they’re not going to, turn him into a first baseman or trade him. We’ve dragged on the “we’re not sure about Clement” stuff long enough. It’s time to make a call – either he’s worth giving a shot to or he’s not. Let’s not put this off any longer.
I agree with option 1.
And I would appreciate it if someone could tell me exactly how Clement isn’t opening eyes in spring training What specifically is underwhelming the new coaches and management?
He’s not hitting, and he still has the footwork behind the plate of a drugged up rhinocerous.
I wonder if the second option is complicated by Mike Carp’s emergence? He lacks the pedigree of Clement as a hitter, but he’s nearly 3 years younger…
I think #1′s the only real solution, but the fact that they’re really considering going with Johnson/Johjima speaks volumes. That it’s even close is dispiriting. Rob’s a great guy, and I’m glad he’s having success, but this is not the way things were supposed to work out.
But yes: the team must make a decisive call in the next couple of weeks.
If Clement won’t go with option 2, then I’d opt for #3. There is no more important defensive position than catcher. And Clement will never be even an average defensive catcher. If he can’t see that Branyan is just a 1 year stopgap and bite the bullet to learn a new position then lets see what we can get for him.
I’d also be fine with combining #1 and #2, give him 3-400ABs at Catcher, DH and an occasional start at 1b, and have him do some extra work at 1b to prepare for next season.
Dave, is his poor hitting this spring a concern that outweighs his minor league success, or is most of the concern concentrated on his defense, particulary the rhinoceroid footwork you mention.
i love clement, but he does have a Jeremy reed feel to him.
What about the Yankees? if their third base options fail while A-Rod is hurt there can’t be a better looking package than Beltre and Clement to be the future catcher after Posada. They spent all that money this offseason and that may force them to acquire Adrian if their 3rd baseman struggles at the beginning of the season. Even if they don’t have the young guys we’d need, we could force them to pay all of Beltre’s contract, and maybe even dump Washburn Batista or even Silva. Probably is just wishful thinking though.
Platoon him with Joh this year…if he does well, we have our catcher or we can trade him at the deadline…if he doesn’t, we have other options at catcher, and we have our DH when Griff retires…
I’m for moving him right on out of here. Try as I might to like this guy, I don’t. Those lying eyes of mine just keep telling me he’s a defensive liability and, so far, an inconsistent hitter.
What teams do you think might want him, and what do you think Jack might be able to get for him?
Trade him to Texas, I hear they need catchers!
What about Mike Carp likely starting at 1B in Tacoma? Is option 2 a viable choice? As much as I would like to see Clement at the catching position, I would rather see him become a great hitter and stick at DH than play marginal defense at 1B.
It sure is a frustrating situation. And signing Johjima to a 3-year extension certainly didn’t help. But apparently that can be blamed on ownership, not management.
He should be backing up Johjima but it looks like that isn’t going to happen. It’s too bad because whether Clement is good or not he really hasn’t had the time to develop on a day to day basis as a catcher in the big show.
I say move him to 1B or DH. If that doesn’t work out then trade him for whatever they can get. At that point there won’t be much the M’s will be able to get for him so either way we’re just wasting time.
I agree with option #1, although it is a high risk/high reward choice. If he flops in the show, either offfensively or defensively, his value also drops.
USSM has been very bullish on Clements offensive potential, as are the projection systems, so it seems a risk worth taking.
I would like to ask, however, whether Jack Z shouldnt be exploring the trade market for catchers at this point anyway. Rob Johnson in many ways seems like a better fit for Boston.
“I think it’s worth finding out if Clement can stick as a major league catcher”
Jeff is going to be turning 26 years old and entering his 4th season as a pro. I’m sure the coaching staff has a pretty good idea of what he can and can’t do. If they aren’t excited about him being on the 25 man roster this is bad bad news.
The problem with moving him to 1B and then, if that fails, trading him, is that moving him off C kills his value.
If they’re ready to make a real commitment to Clement as a 1B, fine. But they really can’t change his position just to see if it might work. If they really don’t think he can stick at C, I think the default should be to trade him. At this point, I think most other orgs are aware of his struggles, but he’d still have some value.
Oh, and the Yankees #2 prospect is a catcher, so Clement would just be holding the door for a few years… that too would hurt his value.
Also hurting his trade value is the huge influx of young talent at the position. Texas has plenty of it, then there’s Max Ramirez, Angel Salome, Buster Posey, Jesus Montero, Hank Conger, maybe Landon Powell/Kurt Suzuki, plus the MLB guys like Geovany Soto, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and Chris Iannetta. Oh, and some guy named Wieters.
Is there any validity to the argument that having Clement try to learn his craft in the majors can hurt the pitchers’ numbers and therefore their marketability? You know who I’m thinking of.
“The problem with moving him to 1B and then, if that fails, trading him, is that moving him off C kills his value”
I’d agree. I can’t believe that any team would be to high on Clement right now anyway. I’m guessing he’d have the most value to the M’s as a DH/1B if he can’t catch.
Brilliant. You are exactly right. You know they read this site. I hope they take your advice.
I am afraid that they will send him to Tacoma, just hoping that he improves.
I am wondering, though, if Clement is more like Choo than Reed.
But it seems that, even if he reaches his offensive potential, he won’t be good enough to fill such a power position as DH/1B on a contending team. Wasn’t part of the reason he is (was?) such a solid prospect because the replacement level for hitting catchers is relatively low? Potential influx of new talent aside, you can count the number of big-time hitting catchers on one hand; DH/1B, obviously, there are a lot more.
But as Clement himself shows, the parachute doesn’t always open. This guy was the number 5 pick in the draft, and one of the few draft choices that wasn’t subject to much criticism when it was made. You’re supposed to get a major league regular at number 5 (God forbid we get Darren Dreifort, Jr. at no. 2 this year), even a star.
One downside to option one is that if he proves he can’t stick as a catcher, it hurts his value in option 3.
I think they need to make a decision and do either option 2 or 3 given the presence of Moore makes option one less of an imperative IMHO.
Exactly. So 1 and 3 are really the only options in my opinion. And with Johjima on the outset of his three year contract, doesn’t it make the most sense to cut their losses and hope to get at least a decent prospect in return for Clement? What do you think we could get back for him, realistically?
I agree with the second option. He’s at a weird age/stage of development. We basically are betting that his hitting, while potentially great, will someday pale in comparison to his ability to call/manage a game.
Thoughts:
1. His offensive production sold his catching.
2. His offensive potential continues to sell his catching. He has far more potential as a hitter.
3. He is progressing but at this point, to develop his catching will indeed take away from his hitting.
4. Once/if he does develop into the ‘great catcher who hits’ it will likely be in a couple seasons, at which point much of his shelf life will have been spent developing his catching… If he was 21 and not 26, I say go for it. At this point, we will likely be trading years of great offensive production for good game-calling/management in a few seasons. His knee woes are also a cause for concern.
5. Edgar Martinez was a pretty good 3B once until his hamstring injury. However, he proved invaluable to the organization as a hitter and had a longer career because of it. If Clement’s offensive potential ‘is as advertised’, let the guy hit first, field/catch/coach/manage/write novels, lead in the clubhouse, drive the team bus, or do whatever a player is supposed to do these days, second.
I’m all for option #3. There is too much tallent underneath him who have potential and lets not kid ourself, Johjima is here to stay. Nintendo ain’t going to sign to have him traded or cut. Think abut this for a sec you could send him and Bentencourt for a solid SS or him with lopez etc. I think he is in demand and teams will have their own bias in wether they can make him a cather. I say let them try and trade him now while his value is high.
“and hope to get at least a decent prospect in return for Clement? What do you think we could get back for him, realistically?”
“I say let them try and trade him now while his value is high.’
Why would anyone think Clement value is high right now? He hasn’t showed he can hit in the majors. He hasn’t showed he can catch in the majors. We know this. The Mariners know this. Why would you expect another MLB team not to be aware of Clement huge issues?
I never said his value was high. That’s why I asked what we could “realistically” get for him at this juncture.
“I never said his value was high. That’s why I asked what we could “realistically†get for him at this juncture.”
Thats true. I’m just thinking getting a “decent prospect” isn’t worth not trying Clement at 1B/DH.
Please forgive me if it has been brought up before, but how different is catching a season at AAA from catching a season in the majors? I can understand how it would not be beneficial to see Clement hit against pitchers of that level. Shouldn’t Clement catching everyday, even at a lower level, be beneficial for things like footwork and defense?
Fair enough coasty. I actually agree with you on that point. But as Dave said in the original post, “well, the last one obviously depends on what you get back”.
Chilitown,
Clement hasn’t not shown the ability to catch on an everyday basis. His ability to perform and his ability to stay healthy (knee issues are not good for catchers) have prevented him from doing so.
I think the M’s HAVE to first give Clement a shot at being the starting catcher before they even think of trading him. Clement is a lefty bat with power and he has also shown great patience in the minor leagues as well.
Lefty bats with pop and good OBP don’t grow on trees and it’s a skill set the M’s have done a poor job developing over the past few years.
If Clement doesn’t work at catcher then I think they should try him at 1B/DH.
Carp/Clement as a 1B/DH combo would not be bad next year as both have good OBP and upside.
The thing that bugs me the most is the Kenji extension. It is really hamstringing the team in to having to start Kenji to try and justify the contract. If Kenji was not given the extension this would not be an issue as Clement and Johnson would be your catching combo right now.
I’m for #1.
His stock is pretty low right now- proving that he can’t do what everyone already suspects he can’t do (catch in the majors) won’t change that, so I don’t think we should be afraid that failure will have some massive impact on what we can get for him down the road. Anyone buying Clement right now is buying his bat, not his catching gear.
I think we owe it to ourselves to find out if he can do it, though. Not call him up and futz around and send him back down and never let him get comfortable. Keep him in the lineup everyday (split between C/DH) and see what happens. I don’t want to hear any talk about sending him down or putting him at 1B until after the All-Star break.
“I think the M’s HAVE to first give Clement a shot at being the starting catcher before they even think of trading him”
What makes you think Clement hasn’t been given a shot?
He has 219 major league at bats. I wouldn’t classify that as much of a shot.
I can’t belive the amount of people that want to ship this guy off before he has even had one full year in the major leagues.
I totally understand and agree with Dave’s post about the choices the M’s have but on this board and many others a ton of M’s fans have given up on Clement.
There have been plenty of good players that stuggle early in their career and then blossom. I would hate for the M’s to dump Clement to have it come back to bit them.
Choo is a great example of the M’s trading away a player for a piece of crap in Broussard and having that player really starting to blossom on another team.
I’m firmly in the “trade him” category myself, as much as I love watching him hit.
I think the time to move him is while another team can still be convinced that he could turn into an effective offensive asset at the catching position, and I think the longer they wait, the less chance of that happening.
The Mariners appear to be trying to kill me
“There have been plenty of good players that stuggle early in their career and then blossom”
It would be one thing if Clement wasn’t getting good results but his coaches/FO manager still thought he could do it. But clement is filled with question marks. He is a horrible defender after three years of pro baseball and his bat speed is a major issue.
Choo is a totally different situation. One of the reason he’s producing so well is because he’s being used effectively by his team. Choo is a useful but nonetheless flawed player. In the prime of his career he’s an avg fielder and he can’t hit lefties. The credit for Choo success should go to Cleveland for using him effectively.
This whole giving him a shot at starting at catcher I think is a extremely high risk with little return. You can trade him right now without his full ability at catcher being know. We know that at best he will be an average defensive catcher, so why would you even try him? Let the other teams figure that out on their own. If you start him he could play even worse than he is right now in the spring, which really doesn’t mean anything, but if you trade him people can have there basis for value looking at last year in AAA and the majors.He is still a top prospect, but he may not be a month into the season or half way through the season. even if he hits beyond belief as a catcher we know his future is not there and making him first base just destroys his value. This whole situation sucks, but I still think trading him is your best bet.
Don’t know if you guys have seen the latest story from Stone about Nady supposedly getting the starting job over Swisher.
You think that we could world a deal for him with Clement? What about that even making sense after we signed Junior this season?
Just curious of your thoughts.
Side note: Just got back from spring training and watched the games last Friday and Saturday. Clement did nothing at the plate. Also watched a sweet HR and a double the next day by Jr. but god, he looked awfully handicapped in LF.
AdamN,
The idea that other teams don’t know his defensive skills are questionable is laughable. If a bunch of idiots like us commenting on a blog know, then all of fucking baseball knows.
Two thoughts from my end:
- There’s now been plenty of time since Clement has been drafted to evaluate whether he can catch or not. All that’s missing is an extended try in the bigs. In any event, it seems that as a defender, Clement must be walking awfully close on the borderline between “just not good enough” and “acceptable, but barely, provided he hits a bit”.
- Dave’s right: in a season where we don’t expect to contend, why not give him a few months of regular catching in the bigs and reasess the situation e.g. after half of the season. At that point after 40 to 50 major league games caught, be prepared to make a decision either to send him to Tacoma to learn first base or keep him behind the plate.
Aren’t catchers notorious for late development? I’m not saying we have to wait forever for Clement, and his defense is probably not going to go anywhere, but how par for the course is this in historical terms?
That was kind. Griffey was an absolute butcher in LF. He didn’t come close to two bloopers and jogged (seriously) to a ball hit down the line, which turned an out/single/double into a triple. This was shallow LF – it’s not like the ball was rattling around down in the corner.
I’m for option #2, or #3 if he cops an attitude. The only thing he’s shown he can do is hit at the AAA level. He’s never going to catch at the ML level anyway. His footwork may be awful but his arm is worse. Let him learn 1st base for a season and keep gaining confidence hitting in AAA. Then bring him up and platoon 1st and DH when you have more options position wise.
I’m all for option A since he’s not Piazza bad at the plate and he hasn’t turned into a liability behind the plate where he starts costing us runs behind the plate. His offense is what will ultimately decide whether or not he can catch if he starts mashing HR’s all over the place and is catching you got yourself a very good lefty bat and his defense is not to the point where he’s like Piazza behind the plate and that skill set at the catcher position is very sexy.
He can catch until he prove he can’t it’s been said many times and I’m all for it.
The BoSox need a catcher that can catch Wakefield’s knuckleballer….
Think we could get anything for Burke??
Slurve makes a good point, and I’ll back up one step, while Clement isn’t lighting the world on fire on offense or defense, the real problem here is Joh. We are seeing the same thing with the pitching staff, where the question isn’t whether RRS or BM should start, it’s where do we put MB, Slim and JW? This whole “bench the talent in favor of our terrible contracts” is a huge loser.
At some point we need to ask if the hope of unloading these guys in a trade, outweighs retarding the development of our future.
Logger –
For as much as Grif has given me to cheer about over my life time, I won’t be so harsh on him in spring training.
I was just trying to be p.c. and not call him “retarded”.
Other than that you are completely correct.
Thanks for the clarification Coasty.
Assuming that Clement was traded before the start of the season, what kind of value does he realistically have? Is he worth a major league player or a upper-tier prospect?
Either give him the starting gig or deal him to Tampa or Milwaukee. Sending him back to AAA would be a pretty big mistake.
One question I’ve been meaning to ask is how important defense is at catcher in the first place? It’s an awful lot easier for us to quantify all the other positions due to range and speed being such big factors, but what is the quantification of catching in terms of runs saved/allowed? Mark Shapiro has maintained for a very long time that keeping Victor Martinez at catcher, despite any defensive shortcomings, has been a massive plus for the organization overall.
Let’s figure this Clement situation out now when the expectations are non-existent instead of waiting till it’s too late. With all the talk of Mike Sweeney and now Rob Johnson breaking camp with the team, my Spidey sense is tingling for the first time since the new front office took over. I hope we don’t see our first real chinks in the armor this soon…
Jvalentine…if the M’s could flip Clement for Swisher that would certainly make some sense to me. I am in the keep Clement camp at this point and am all for giving him a full shot but Swisher is a proven player and he has a great skill set for Safeco with pop, patience and a switch hitter. He is also a good glove in LF.
As far as the Griffey situation goes, Griffey could DH when Swisher is in the field and against lefty pitching Swisher could play 1B. Not sure if Griffey even plays all the time against lefty pitching…but Swisher to me is a guy that would be a great fit for the roster and with the catching in the M’s system Swisher is a better fit on the roster than Clement.
I’m all for option A since he’s not Piazza bad at the plate
I dunno, man, Clement looks pretty bad out there- plus Piazza was legitimately one of the best hitters in baseball. Clement, well, is never going to be that (his stats aren’t close to Piazza’s at comparable ages).
Assuming that Clement was traded before the start of the season, what kind of value does he realistically have? Is he worth a major league player or a upper-tier prospect?
If you figure Clement’s not a C, he’s probably in the Lyle Overbay range of 1B/DH’s- can play some ball and contribute to your team, especially while he’s under team control, but not going to any All-Star games unless he has a fluke year. Overbay’s been involved in trades, but you’re not going to get immense talent back.
My take on Clement is at this point, if the defense isn’t taking (and it doesn’t appear to be), you’re talking about a player who has had two knee surgeries by age 24, trying to play a position that a) eats knees and b) has the worst aging curve for any position in MLB, even when you can stay in a lineup regularly in your 20′s and don’t get injured, which, well, doesn’t describe Jeff Clement. The odds that his long-term future is at C approach nil (and if I can see this, I’m pretty sure any competent GM or scout can figure this one out), and my concern is keeping him at C is risking turning him into Doyle Mk II, another one of those players where you go, “Gosh, he could have had a nice career if he could have stayed healthy for longer than 5 minutes at a time”.
So basically, I think you go for option 2 or option 3 at this point… the problem being that now you have Carp AND Clement in Tacoma needing time at 1B (I’d probably have them split time between 1B and DH, I guess).
Eponymous Coward,
AMEN.
up until now, I had projected a Clement/Johjima platoon. And I think that the M’s current postion is best suited for that. But, if the choice is Clement to Tacoma or trade I wouldn’t be adverse to a deal, hopefully for a decent return, and this probably isn’t the optimum time to get that.
If he is a chip to unload Washburn, that opens up a wound from last year. The position right now that needs an upgrade the most is Shortstop, is there anyone available right now that are worth trading him for? I don’t think so. Prospect for prospect deals don’t happen much, but sure if there is an SS prospect blocked by a star, who could be had and is MLB ready, I am all for it, but it isn’t going to happen. Reed, Choo and Clement all have two big things in common, left-handed bats and far better plate discipline than the norm in this organization in recent years. Reed got ample opportunity to show whether or not he could play, Clement has not yet. Like Choo who got a really brief audition and then was dealt for basically a temporary fix. I guess until shown evidence otherwise I wil trust Z, if he traded a Clement for a couple lower minors guys, but that is not the type of optimism that a baseball fan should have to have in sprintime.
I seem to remember asking and being told that Clements value as a hitter was primarily in the fact that he is a catcher. In other words, if he moves away from that position he becomes much, much less valuable.
I do believe that eventually Clement will learn to hit MLB pitching – he’s shown bursts at times and has shown a consistent batting eye in AAA. This makes him an asset to the M’s as long as he remains a catcher, but if we move him to DH/1B there is much less upside and we will kill any trade value he has remaining.
I also have to believe that although the other MLB teams know his defense is weak, they also know what he’s done in AAA and know there is potential there. If the M’s were to trade for someone like Clement I think we would all agree that it is another smart move being made by the organization…small risk, med-high reward if things pan out.
Either way, quite the log jam is developing at the catcher position and someone is going to go or have their development stunted by this fact. At this point in time Clement has the highest trade value of the guys we’ve got and it might not be such a bad idea to try and move him now. He still has ‘upside’ and it would free up the organization to go with Johjima/Johnson now, letting Moore develop for another year or two and then moving to him as the new starter.
At this point, if you can get anything decent in return you’ve got to make the trade. Clement’s upside as a hitter isn’t that high and it opens up some space within the organization.
FWIW Pedro Griffol was a strong advocate for Clement at the Seattle Library thing a few months ago, and seemed to think there was no reason Clement wouldn’t start hitting once he was given enough ABs in the majors. We don’t know if his opinion has changed, or if he’s at odds with others in the organization, but the team seemed to still be sold on Clement as a catcher then.
We are?
I don’t think that’s what anybody is thinking. I think they were hoping he’d be a “really good hitter who catches” which, thanks to positional scarcity, is a really valuable thing. As several other people have said, much of that value evaporates if he moves to another position.
Piazza’s obviously at one extreme of the bat/glove trade-off, and any number of defensively great catchers at the other end. What you want is somebody who falls somewhere on that line, not under it. If Clement could start hitting in the majors the way he was in Tacoma last year, he’d definitely be on that line towards the Piazza end. But he doesn’t have to hit that well to offset his defensive liabilities. The various projection systems place his 2009 OPS in a range from .743 to .786, which would put him in some pretty good company.
But here’s the real question: which would you rather see in the majority of games — a .654 OPS catcher with issues, or a .609 OPS catcher with issues? Because the former is 2008 Jeff Clement, and the latter is 2008 Kenji Johjima. Which do you think is more likely: that Kenji will bounce back (and that certain elements of the pitching staff will decide to love him), or that Clement will figure out how to hit MLB pitching (passed balls and base stealers be damned)? I’d bet on the latter, personally. I’d say his health is the bigger risk. If his knees prevent him from catching then he’s moving to another position no matter how well he’s learned to block pitches and throw out runners.
Actually, he was the number 3 guy in that draft, which makes it more painful. More painful still: guys taken after him: Ryan Zimmerman (#4), Ryan Braun (#5), Troy Tulowitzki (#7), Jacoby Ellsbury (#23), Matt Garza (#25), Travis Buck (#36), and Clay Buchholz (#42)… and that’s just the first round (there’s always a good chance there’s a late-round Pujols or Smoltz still lurking in the minors from that draft)
Jeff Clement reminds me just a little bit of an old Yankees backstop by name of Matt Nokes.
Nokes was a bit of a blockhead with a decent lefty bat, but way too limited of an athlete to be a decent catcher defensively even if he had worked hard at it (he didn’t).
At least in Clement, there seems to be something resembling intelligence and a solid work ethic. But like Nokes, there may be only so far you can expect that body to go as a catcher.
I’m not sold on Clement as a catcher, and I’m not totally convinced he won’t be a catcher, ultimately.
But I do know he’s a big-legged, barrel-chested type that will have to fight to keep weight off by the time he’s 28-29. And his mobility’s substandard right this very minute.
So seeing as how he’s 25 (26 in August) already, how many years can you really run him out there behind the plate, ultimately?
My best guess is very few.
More than that, Adam Moore is better defensively, and every bit the offensive prospect. And only a year away by a lot of estimates.
My basic take on Clement is if you have him in the fold this year, run him out at the major-league level in 2009, and have him catch 3 of every 5 games. Trial by fire, let’s see what the guy has in ML value- knowing blasted well that what you’re really looking at is how his lefty bat profiles in your (or another) org’s future more than anything else.
Also, if Zduriencik can somehow right now parlay Clement into a high-profile bat like Red Sox minor-league 1B Lars Anderson, I’m all for it.
Or any other prospect with a high ceiling in an area where we are lacking, but Anderson’s high on my want list.
I can totally live with Rob Johnson as the backup for a year.
Adam Moore is in no way the offensive prospect that Clement is.
We need to get the guy AB’s at the major league level and not count on his catching. I don’t think he’ll last more than a few seasons as a catcher and this wear and tear will drag down his hitting… So, my point is: I see us wasting resources and his potential by continually hammering on him being ‘a’ catcher. The guy is a hitter. Put him on the roster and get him time at 1B/DH/C/PH–whatever, just let him hit.
Sorry, Dave. I differ on that one. Moore has as much pure raw power from the right side as what the M’s have in their system right now.
Seriously?
Off the top of my head, right-handed hitters with more pure power than Moore:
Wladimir Balentien
Mike Wilson
Greg Halman
Jharmidy DeJesus
Moore projects as a .270/.320/.440 guy in his prime. If he develops well, that’s his upside. He has no chance of being a big league regular if he’s not a catcher.
Clement’s got legit .280/.370/.500 potential. The gap between his bat and Moore’s bat is substantial.
What I don’t understand is why the M’s didn’t have Clement play 1B when they sent him back down to AAA last year. Well, I guess it was the old regime so that explains that…but it seems to me they missed a solid opportunity to let Clement try 1B in AAA and learn the position with a lot less pressure on him.
It’s not the end of the world but it seems to me it would have been a good use of his time in AAA last year after the first demotion.
Dave-
DeJesus may very well have MORE raw power than Moore, but I don’t consider him anything close to a proven, projectable commodity yet. Halman, I grant you that a case exists to say he has more power. I will even go so far as to say I glitched on him.
But, Wilson and Balentien have never proven to have MORE power than Moore. Equal? Perhaps.
And remember, I said “as much“, not “greater than”. I think all four of the guys you mentioned are on roughly equal levels on pure power, but not decidedly greater.
And let’s compare Clement with Moore, specifically- as that’s the comparison that brought up the point. They’ve actually assembled pretty comparable numbers in the minors up to this point.
Jeff Clement- 1,056 ABs, .286 BA; Career #’s in OBP- .377; SLG- .494; OPS- .871
Sidenotes: 206 SO in MiLB.
Adam Moore- 1,090 ABs, .306 BA; Career #’s in OBP- .375; SLG- .506; OPS- .881
NOTE: 209 SO in MiLB.
These numbers are not pro-rated with park factors in mind (because I’m not savvy on that, yet), but with those eerily similar numbers? I’m not seeing where you’re getting Clement being at eventually a .280/.370/.500-level and Moore not.
To me, I think a case exists that they are equal prospects. Which is what I said in the first place.
What I don’t understand is why the M’s didn’t have Clement play 1B when they sent him back down to AAA last year.
Except that if they still thought he could be a catcher, but he needed a lot of work to be acceptable as a catcher, plus he’s more valuable by far as a catcher, it would have been completely foolhardy to have him work on being something other than a catcher. That’s why this is a fish or cut bait problem.
There’s not a case to be made that they’re equal offensive prospects. Sorry. There just isn’t.
628 of Clement’s career minor league at-bats have come in Triple-A. 0 of Moore’s career minor league at-bats have come in Triple-A.
433 of Moore’s career minor league at-bats have come in High Desert, the best hitters park on the planet. 0 of Clement’s career minor league at-bats have come in High Desert.
Moore isn’t close to Clement in offensive ability.
The only option we’ve got is to get this guy 300 – 400 major league at bats this year. As an organization we have to know whether he can hit ML pitching or not. Any talk about what position he’s going to play in the future for us is moot if the dude can’t hit. Period.
For SonOfZavaras’s benefit, and mine, is there a website with minor league park factors?
Option #1, PLEASE!!!!!!!
Every step the Mariners have made over the last couple years, except signing Johjima to a 3 year deal, indicates they still believe in Clement as a catcher. The spots that we see him at, DH and 1st, have a logjam of potential bodies which already show the talent to hit. Is there even the slightest chance that the 3 year contract for Johjima was to allow him to leave baseball with dignity and honor (and some nice cash)????? To me this is the year to have Clement catch as much as his body will allow NOT let it carry over into next year decision making. Option#1 or use him with one of our weighty pitchers to get something and move on!!
Fine, Dave. Clement is a better offensive prospect than Adam Moore.
But come 2011 or even 2010, it’ll be Moore behind the plate and Clement will be either part-time both DHing and catching, trying to learn first base or be with another organization.
Perchance, do you know the projected peak WAR of both players?
No.
HTH.
Oliver has Clement projected this year at .341 wOBA. I picked this one because it’s in the middle, others are better or a bit worse. This is 5.5 runs above average over 600 ab’s (I hope I’m doing this right). If you knock him a bit for defense, it might come out that he’s projected to be a very slightly above league average hitter. Which, with the positional adjustment (12.5), would make him a 1.5ish wins above average. However, since Dave says in his fangraphs post here, there is a 1.5 win gap between replacement level catchers and major league average players. That would put him at 3 WAR for 600 AB’s, though he wouldn’t ever get that even if he was the full-time catcher for the whole season. Dave put’s Adam Moore’s peak WAR at 2.5 in his latest future forty, though, and it is reasonable to assume that Clement will improve even more at the plate. Clement, as a catcher, this year, projects as well or better than Adam Moore’s peak. That’s why it’s so valuable to try to keep him there if possible. He’s be worth half the WAR at first base, even assuming he did a passable job there defensively.
Edit: The above post uses the highest projection, not the middle one. It is still fairly representative, though, and most of what I say holds true, just to a lesser degree.
I don’t know this is starting to look like a bad draft and poor development/management.
We drafted for immediate need then signed Joh. I didn’t really get it then, especially with the level of talent available in that draft.
I don’t want to close the book on this guy just yet. I say we forget about him as a catcher and make him a hitter. Give him AB’s @ C/DH/1B.
Clement wasn’t drafted, I think, for immediate need. He was drafted because his offensive upside at a premium defensive position made him a very valuable piece. Unfortunately, his defensive skills haven’t developed quite as well as the team thought they might have, putting them in their current predicament.
Why is everyone so quick to cast developing players aside? Maybe it’s because we live in a microwave society. Anyway, Clement had 224 PA last year and we all know what he did. But, I’d like to point out that one of the best hitters in baseball didn’t start off too hot either. Through 2 years Alex Rodriguez had 208 PA in which he totaled up 62 K’s, 9 BB, 5 HR, and ~.600 OPS. Don’t get me wrong, though, I’m not trying to compare the two. Mearly trying to illustrate that even the best hitters in baseball can struggle early in their careers. I just think it’s still a bit early to annoint Clement a flop and ship him off. Just seems too much like something regimes of the past would have done.
I just think it’s still a bit early to annoint Clement a flop and ship him off. Just seems too much like something regimes of the past would have done.
Sending Clement to 1B or another organization isn’t labeling him a flop; it’s evaluating his defensive talent as a C and going “we just don’t think this is going to work long-term”. Certainly Clement has value as a prospect even if he’s not a C… it’s just he’s more like Lyle Overbay than Joe Mauer.