One tremendous set of sim seasons for your consideration
The Replacement Level Yankees weblog has posted a project-a-palooza. Enjoy.
The M’s come out okay at 78-84, a dramatic improvement given their record of 0-162 last year (that was just my impression). Here’s the good news: the division is so craptabulous that a little luck might be all they need. The AL West is the early favorite for worst in baseball. As much as I expect that the team’s going to punt this year, content with modest immediate improvements while putting pieces together and looking forward to more dead salary rolling off the books, there’s a real chance they’ll be close enough that they’ll hang on to Bedard (and Washburn) for the season and see where it gets them.
h/t to “Dave Cameron” at Fangraphs for the link.
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So do you guys think that if we are anywhere near contention coming up on the trade deadline that we keep Beltre, Bedard, etc.? The first thing I think is “of course, as long as we’re in contention we should keep fighting.” Then I wonder how long the division will stay bad and how costly it could be not getting prospects at the deadline for the future so we’re not stuck with this team when everyone else is vastly improving. So, thoughts?
boy, that Cameron guy is everywhere.
So do you guys think that if we are anywhere near contention coming up on the trade deadline that we keep Beltre, Bedard, etc.?
Bedard is as good as gone. I can’t really see he and management coming to a mutually beneficial agreement. Though his “New persona” is a bit intriguing. (I personally see him being traded this season. But not for near as much as Bavasi gave to get him. Thanks Bill)
Beltre is the one that may end up staying. Though, with the new financial restrictions, it seems more likely that he’ll be traded mid-season.
As a fan, I would prefer to keep both. But where they fit financially, I have no idea.
Dave, any thoughts?
Does anyone know if the team has even approached Beltre about an extension?
I remember reading last year, I believe on Lookout Landing, that the word was Beltre wanted to go back to California to either the Dodgers or Angels.
I would love to see the M’s give him a 3-4 year extention but the question is whether he would even stay.
If the M’s are in the race, my guess though is they keep both Beltre and Bedard and hope either or both are type A free agents and that they help the team contend for the AL West this year.
Has anyone compared how the average of all the sims last year compared to the actual results?
I think their ideas on how the M’s could be better this year are pretty much spot on. If we could also shore up defense at shortstop . . . .
If we could also shore up defense at shortstop . . . .
Anyone got a ham sandwich with a decent bat?
OOPS! You wanted a BETTER shortstop. My mistake.
Has anyone compared how the average of all the sims last year compared to the actual results?
I tried, starting with the Mariners, and am still in the midst of the 5 stages of ultimate depression.
Actually, if you follow the link you’ll see RLYW’s results for the past four years. If you actually read the article, you’ll find various notes about how and why the projections have diverged from reality in the past.
It would be disasterous if Beltre finished the year with the Ms and signed with the Angels. The pick coming back for a type A would be at the bottom. Plus the Angels do not need anymore help kicking our buts… The best thing that could happen IMO, the Yanks get desperate.
Can the AL West seriously be worse than the NL West?
That is all I have been saying.
The division is awful, and if ALL the mariners play to there potential this could be a great year. Especially because alot of them are going into there contract years, and if we are in contention and we don’t trade Washburn, Badard, and Beltre, if they all have great years we are looking at 4 maybe 5 first round draft picks for them.
(Not instant gratification of getting a top prospect, but still not bad, especially with Mr. Z drafting the players.)
I wonder if they would offer Beltre arbitration, take the draft picks (or keep him on a one year deal). It comes back to a tradeoff between what they could get for him in June and what they would get if he went as a free agent. I think Beltre is more valuable than Ibanez, so the decision is not as clear cut in this case.
Tui looked good this spring, perhaps they are thinking he would be the thirdbaseman in 2010 or 2011 (if they signed Beltre to a one year deal).
Would adding Dallas McPherson change the W-L total any?
Getting a database error when I click on the link.
Pretty easily. The Giants, Dodgers, and maybe Diamondbacks should all do as well as our best team.
Dave has published more than one article here talking about how valuable trade deadline trades usually are. He shows that, unless you have a very over-valued player, you are usually better off holding on to them, offering arb, and taking the supplementals (the list of outstanding supplemental picks is long). Also, anytime you can try to make a legitimate run at a division, it is worth it to do so, even at the expense of a few prospects, because even good teams can end up in good divisions and continually miss that playoffs. The AL West is going to get better, it might not be a bad idea to try to take a stab at it this year. I think Bedard and Beltre will be sticking around past the deadline unless the M’s are out of it by then.
Plus, since none of our teams are genuinely awful (they’re all just bad), no one should be able to rack up easy wins.
We don’t get to play the Nationals or the Royals 19 times each.
SI has picked the Angels to win the AL this year, for as little as that’s worth.
but they have a new link to it.
Yeah, little is right. Look at their picks for last year
Type A free agents are in the top 30% of players at their position over the past two years (ie 2008-2009). Given last year’s performance, what exactly are you expecting out of Bedard and Washburn this year to make that happen?
Well, Bedard was 9th on the AL starters list last year and a long way clear of Jeremy Bonderman (the highest type B) so it’s not that unreasonable in his case. He’s obviously losing his 2007 season from the mix but he’s got plenty of wiggle room to not need to replicate it to stay as a type A.
Washburn was 40th and just outside of the B picks (Paul Bryd was the last B) but if he pitches a full season moderately well he could easily make it to a B and an outside shot at an A (bearing in mind that the Elias rankings used are so ridiculously constructed). Essentially, you’re looking at him catching some breaks and getting good win totals.
For comparison, the 22nd best AL pitcher 2007-8 (and a type B)… Miguel Batista
Beltre gets chronicly under-rated by the system since defense doesn’t feature but he was a A last year (11th overall of AL 2B, 3B and SS)and should stay there barring injury.
I should just correct that last part: Defense does feature but not in any way that reasonably measures defensive ability (and 3Bs get screwed over on it – Fielding % and TCs)
Man, Elias is just insane.
Amen brother.
Just about every facet of how the rankings are calculated is laced with a heavy dose of insanity, from who gets counted, the way positions are grouped, the stats that are used and how they’re weighted and adjusted.
Still, I guess it makes sense in a perverse way to have a stupid system feeding in to the stupid compensation pick system.