WBC hitting leaders
Average: #? Chris Snelling, .600
On-base percentage: #16 (many-way tie), Chris Snelling, .667
Slugging percentage: #5, Chris Snelling, 1.800
Home runs: #1 (tie), Chris Snelling, 2
Total bases: #3 (tie), Chris Snelling, 9
Random facts from the shakedown
Like last year, I’m working on using projections and Diamond Mind to take a look at the upcoming season (check it out, this year’s projections in DMB season disk form now available). This exercise is generally met with delight or mockery, but as the kids say, what evahhhhhhh.
Anyway, random thoughts: cutting the hitters down turns out to be a tough exercise when you get to the end. Morse or Wlad? If you play Griffey in the field, who ends up dropping off the 25-man? Do you play Clement at DH then, and carry Burke or Rob Johnson? Do you want to field an anti-RHP lineup that leaves no lefties on the bench at all? And bullpen construction! How unbalanced a bullpen do you want?
Also, in this projection disk it makes sense to flip Gutierrez and Chavez when they’re both playing because it gets you
LF: Gutierrez’s “Very Good” defense (he’s rated “average” in center)
CF: Chavez’s “Excellent” defense (he’s rated “excellent” at all three positions)
RF: Ichiro’s “Very Good” defense
And the rotation I used is Felix-Bedard-Morrow-Washburn-Silva, which makes me want to grind my teeth, frankly, but what are you going to do? Well, actually… I’m going to start pitching RRS over Silva.
Anyway, the rosters are all messed up for other teams, the lineups don’t make sense, and I’ll probably manage to talk myself into a totally different 25-man in the next hour.
The one big thing, though — the run prevention just rocks (even without the playing-to-the-sim OF switch). I’ve run a couple of seasons now and the M’s have been AL-best every time. Maybe that’s just random noise as I shake it out, but I doubt it.
More soon.
Trial By Fire
Phillippe Aumont, pitching in relief for Team Canada in their opener against the U.S. in the WBC today:
P Aumont relieved C Leroux.
D Pedroia doubled to deep right.
J Rollins reached on infield single to third.
D Pedroia to third, J Rollins to second on wild pitch by P Aumont.
C Jones walked.
D Wright lined out to shortstop.
K Youkilis struck out swinging.
C Granderson struck out swinging.
Aumont loads the bases without reitiring anyone, then stares at David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, and Curtis Granderson – three legitimate MLB all-stars. A line drive and a couple of strikeouts later and he leaves without giving up a run.
Welcome to big time baseball, kid. Nice job.
Saturday Mariner baseball
Spring training! Viewable on your PC while outside it rains/snows/sleets.
The game will feature Gaby Hernandez, who looks in his picture on the M’s home page like the photographer just surprised him at 2am leaving, in full uniform, out of an Arizona strip club. But yeah, it’s supposedly on MLB TV and freeeeee.
Yay more spring training Washburn yay
I don’t know what I’m going to do with myself until noon.
Random Thursday Thoughts
DOYLE! Somebody sign that guy.
I’m not that concerned the M’s are investing time, coaching, and spring training playing Griffey in the field. I’m worried that by the start of the season they’ll talk themselves into playing him there regularly.
I’m also worried that Griffey’s knee, which is supposed to be awesome and healed and won’t drain his power and whatever, has already had a swelling issue. Though as I read the report I’m not even sure it’s the same knee.
Nice to see The Interview do well today. If he’s back and healthy it’s a huge step to getting the team to competitive from last year’s disaster.
Manny’s deal with the Dodgers is crazy.
And I hope Lasorda was joking:
“It’s our game. Baseball is America’s game. It doesn’t belong to the Italians or the Cubans or the Koreans or the Japanese,” he said. “It’s our game, and we’re not going to let them beat us.”
Morrow Feeling Tightness
Larry Stone lets us know that Brandon Morrow has been scratched from his next scheduled start due to some tightness in his forearm. It’s early in spring, and lots of guys deal with stuff while getting ready for the season, so don’t panic. However, the M’s are rightfully going to be very cautious with him – the conversion from the bullpen to the rotation is a taxing one, and they have to be careful not to push his arm too hard.
Stuff like this is why I only expect Morrow to throw between 120-140 innings this year. He’s going to need to be handled differently than the rest of the staff, and when his arm starts feeling things, they’re going to have to let him skip starts. This is why trading for guys like Garrett Olson and Jason Vargas was important – the M’s need to have guys around to take the hill on days when they want to be careful with Morrow’s arm.
Open Roster Spots
With so many young players in camp, and the media’s general ignorance of the various quality of prospects (this isn’t meant to be an insult – most of the beat writers just don’t have time to do any real prospect analysis and have to rely on skimming Baseball America and taking what the organization tells them at face value), we’ve seen a lot of stuff written about how various players are trying to position themselves for jobs with the major league team. In reality, a lot of them just don’t really have any real shot of making the majors.
Take Bryan LaHair, for instance. He has a 0.0% chance of making this team. It doesn’t matter that he’s volunteering to play left field or thinks that he’s figured out how to hit for power now that he’s over some injury issues. With the talent ahead of him, he’s just not going to fit on the roster.
So, which roster spots are actually up for grabs, and who has a shot at them?
Let’s fill out the roster with the no doubt guys – Johjima, Branyan, Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre, Chavez, Gutierrez, Ichiro, Griffey, and Cedeno are on the team unless they start the season on the DL. These guys have 10 of the 13 or 14 position player spots locked up. That leaves 3 or 4 spots potentially available, depending on whether they go with an 11 or 12 man pitching staff. Those three or four spots have specific roles, though – here’s the spots that are open and who is actually in the mix for those spots.
Catcher: Jeff Clement, Jamie Burke, Rob Johnson
I almost put Clement in the lock category, but there is some chance that he has a bad enough spring that the team decides to start him off in Tacoma and goes with Kenji as the starter. The odds of that are probably less than 10%, but, they aren’t zero, so I put it here. In reality, though, Burke or Johnson can’t really play their way onto the club – their only shot is if Clement looks so bad that he plays himself off the roster. And, of course, that would be a pretty bad development for the M’s, so they’ll do whatever they can to avoid this scenario. Most likely, Clement takes this job and gets a good chunk of the time behind the plate while Johnson goes to Tacoma and Burke gets released.
Right-Handed 1B/DH: Chris Shelton, Mike Morse, Mike Sweeney
Even with the M’s talking about giving Branyan a chance to play everyday, they’re still going to carry a backup at first base, and given his historical platoon splits, it only makes sense to have a backup 1B who can hit left-handed pitching. Right-handed hitters only need apply for this job. Morse is out of options and still has fans from his big spring last year, but he’s simply not as good of a player as Shelton, so if the team decides on production potential, Shelton’s the winner. Sweeney’s got the leadership/chemistry stuff over both of them, but management has been very clear that they were going to build a winning team and expected chemistry to follow, rather than the other way around. Unless Sweeney hits a bunch of long home runs and shows that he’s found the fountain of youth, he probably retires at the end of ST, and the M’s are left to choose between Shelton and Morse. Bet on Shelton.
Right-Handed Outfielder: Wladimir Balentien, Prentice Redman
Considering that Griffey will act as the DH occasionally (or regularly, if we’re lucky), the team has to carry another outfielder besides Chavez-Gutierrez-Ichiro. With Gutierrez as the only RH hitter among the outfielders on the roster, it doesn’t make much sense for the extra OF to be another left-handed bat. So, like with the backup first baseman, right-handed bats only need apply for this role. And, with that being the case, Balentien is the obvious choice here. Despite the visa issues and the comments about how he’s got a lot of work to catch up on, it’s remarkably hard to see the M’s putting Balentien on waivers in order to keep a replacement level player like Prentice Redman. In reality, there just isn’t anyone in camp that is going to put any real pressure on Wlad for this spot, especially since he’s out of options. Unless he’s part of a spring training deal, he’s extremely likely to fill the RH OF/DH spot.
If they go with a 12 man pitching staff, then that’s your bench – Cedeno, the catcher, the 1B, and the OF. If they decide to only go with 11 pitchers, then there’s one more open spot, and given the speed of some of the guys on the roster, it should really go to a pinch runner. And that would almost certainly be Reegie Corona – the M’s didn’t spend the second pick in the Rule 5 draft on him for no reason, and if they are carrying a player specifically for his wheels, it’s going to be Corona.
So, there’s a few options for how the open roster spots will shake out, but a good chunk of guys in camp have no chance of making this roster. Realistically, it’s going to be one of Clement/Johnson/Burke (strong favorite Clement), one of Shelton/Morse/Sweeney (favorite Shelton), and one of Balentien/Redman (strong favorite Balentien), with Corona’s future depending on how many pitchers they decide to go with.
For all the other position players in camp, they aren’t really in the mix. Tui, LaHair, Woodward, Crabbe, Wilson – they can have the spring training of their lives, but they still aren’t making this team.
The #27 and #33 picks
As everyone knows, the M’s have the second pick in the draft this summer. You know the names by now – pray for Washington to pass on Strasburg, but if they don’t, the consolation prize is probably going to be one of Alex White, Dustin Ackley, or Grant Green. You can get a lot of information on those four from Baseball America and some googling.
However, the M’s also have two other first round-ish type picks as compensation for losing Raul Ibanez. In a conversation with a scout friend, a few names popped up that he thinks could be available in that area and be good fits for the M’s. So, we’ll talk about one of those guys today.
6’2, 200 lb LH hitting outfielder. Good contact/gap power hitter, excellent defense, terrific baserunner. Similar in some ways to Michael Saunders. Plays with reckless abandon, draws comparisons to Lenny Dykstra for style of play. He was rated as the 8th best prospect in the Cape Cod League last summer
Baseball America wrote him up based on their conversations with scouts this weekend.
He’s started the ’09 season by going 15 for 36 with 6 doubles and an even 5 walks and 5 strikeouts so far. If he has a solid junior season, continues to show some power development and controls the strike zone, he’ll be a first round pick. If he’s available at #27, he fits the mold of players that the M’s are looking for, and could be a good addition to the organization.
The Closer
Okay, so, let’s talk about the closer role. As you probably know, the M’s are having an open audition for the 9th inning relief spot, and the current leaders in the clubhouse appear to be Miguel Batista, Mark Lowe, and Roy Corcoran. Tyler Walker would be in the mix if he wasn’t battling injury issues, and David Aardsma is a longshot unless he shows significantly improved command this spring.
When you hear teams and the media talk about the closer role, they’ll usually refer to several points of significance that are necessary for being a closer. They are, in some order, velocity, mental toughness, and owning a swing-and-miss pitch. The prototypical closer is someone like Jonathan Papelbon – a mid-90s fastball that he throws a ton of and gets a lot of swinging strikes with along with the desire to take the ball in the 9th inning. Since that is what closers are “supposed to look like”, you’ll see the discussions about who should close center around who looks most like that ideal.
Batista throws hard and wants to close, so he’s in the mix. Lowe throws hard and gets a lot of strikeouts, so he’s in the mix too. Corcoran doesn’t throw hard and doesn’t have a strikeout pitch, but he’s getting endorsed as a guy who has the mental toughness to pitch in the 9th inning, so he’s in the mix too, but with a lot of skepticism due to his lack of velocity and knockout pitch.
However, what actually is the most important aspect to being able to successfully pitch in the 9th inning? Does this fit-everyone-into-a-box method actually yield the best results? What should the team be looking for in a relief ace?
I’d argue that the most important quality a closer needs to have is the ability to get opposite handed hitters out. This is the thing that is hardly ever talked about, but is vital to being able to perform as a closer. Due to the way the modern bullpen is handled, all non-closer relievers can have significant platoon splits minimized through managerial decisions. Sean Green didn’t have anything to throw at LH batters, and they gave him fits throughout his career, but he was an effective reliever because he was put in the game when RH batters were due up and removed when a string of LH came to the plate. His strengths were maximized and his weaknessses minimized by his usage.
That doesn’t apply to closers. Managers just aren’t willing to let the 9th inning be decided by the handedness of the opponents batters, and the closer is expected to be able to come in and get three outs regardless of who is due up. If the opposition sends three LH pinch-hitters to the plate, the closer has to stay in and get those guys out – the manager won’t be summoning a LOOGY from the pen to go after those guys. We can see this effect in the ratio of batters faced by closers and non-closers.
Last year, right-handed batters accumulated 48,549 plate appearances while left-handed batters racked up 38,809 trips to the plate. That is, 56% of all batters faced by pitchers last year were right-handed. The 56/44 split is pretty normal historically. There are more RH hitters than LH hitters in baseball, so right-handed middle relievers can easily be spotted against same-handed hitters and achieve success.
However, the majority of hitters faced by closers are opposite handed. I grabbed the PA splits for eight prominent right-handed closers (Jenks, Rivera, Papelbon, Nathan, K-Rod, Lidge, Cordero, and Valverde), and 51% of the batters they faced as a group were LH. Lidge faced 54% left-handed batters. Because of their inflexible usage patterns and managers knowing they won’t be removed if a pinch-hitter is used, closers will simply face more opposite handed batters than other relievers. This is why you rarely see a closer with significant platoon splits.
So, how does that affect the M’s candidates?
Batista is a fastball-slider guy, neither of which are good pitches against LH batters. For his career, LH batters put up an OPS 100 points higher than RH batters, and last year, he looked just miserably lost against them – 55 walks and against 38 strikeouts in 303 PA versus left-handed batters. He’s vulnerable to LH bats, and his skills are best suited to righty specialist work. In reality, if used correctly, he’s not all that different from Sean Green, just with less sink on his fastball.
Lowe is a fastball-slider-change-up guy, and the change-up is usually the pitch that is best suited to getting opposite handed hitters out. A knockout change-up is what has allowed Trevor Hoffman to succeed as a closer despite losing his fastball and having no real breaking ball, for instance. So, in terms of repertoire, Lowe would seemingly have an advantage with a pitch that should allow him to keep LH hitters at bay. However, in practical results as a major leaguer, that hasn’t been the case – LH batters have posted a .983 OPS against Lowe compared to a .637 OPS for right-handed batters. All eight home runs he’s allowed have been to left-handed bats. Lowe’s change is a good pitch, but his command needs a lot of work, and when he misses his spots, it gets crushed. He’s going to have to show that he can locate his change-up better or he’s going to run into some problems as a 9th inning guy.
Corcoran is a sinkerball guy who throws a slider and a change, but not very frequently. For the most part, he’s just trying to get you to hit the ball on the ground, and that means a lot of fastballs. Sinkerball pitchers often run significant platoon splits, and Corcoran is no exception. LH batters had an OPS 98 points higher than RH batters, and he walked 19 and struck out just 12 left-handed batters in 151 plate appearances. Like Green, his sinker is so good that he can overcome some weakness against LH bats and be used as an effective RH reliever despite mediocre BB/K rates, but he’s miscast as a guy who has to face predominantly LH batters. His stuff is just made for right-handed specialist work, and no amount of moxy can make up for the fact that he just doesn’t have a weapon against left-handed hitters.
So, where does that leave us? Batista and Corcoran are both better suited for setup work, while Lowe has the repertoire of a relief ace but not the command. However, there is reason to believe that Lowe could succeed as a closer – a three pitch guy with a 94 MPH fastball who gets a lot of swinging strikes has some upside potential, which is more than you can say for Batista or Corcoran. In a season where developing talent for the future is in the plan, Mark Lowe as closer looks to be the best choice. There’s still reasons to think he could struggle there, but at least there’s some breakout potential.