Just Curious
4-2 without Ichiro and with Morrow having his spring training in April. Bedard looking completely healthy in his first start. The outfield defense living up to their advanced billing. Junior drawing walks and hitting homers off of LHPs. The middle relievers slamming the door in close games.
The first six games couldn’t have gone much better for the M’s. There’s a pretty good chance they head into their first day off at 5-2, and look at adding Ichiro to a first place roster.
I’m curious to see how long it takes Seattle to get excited about this team. There was so much cynicism about the M’s ownership, and expectations were low heading into the season. How long do they have to play well until people start to realize that they may have underestimated this group?
A week isn’t long enough, obviously. But what if they’re still in first place at the end of April? At what point do the people who thought this team would win 70 games say “hey, you know, they aren’t bad”?
I’d say mid May. We’ve all seen the quick and slow starts that have meant nothing.
It’s still so early…but for this M’s fan, I’m enjoying our play more then I have in years.
I confess to having been skeptical about the roster, right up until a few days ago.
There are surely still some question marks, but the most important thing, and maybe most under rated, is the fact that this team is FUN to watch. This came as a complete surprise to me for some reason.
I am definitely encouraged that they can actually have a decent season based on what I’ve seen so far.
I’m going to remain apprehensive until we start the June 9th road trip to Baltimore, San Diego and Arizona. We should be able to match with those teams. If we’re several games over .500 at that point I’ll start getting excited.
The 2nd and 3rd games have very low ticket sales: http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlesports/archives/166234.asp
I’m not getting really happy yet, as the Twinkies and A’s are not the best teams. But I’m going to enjoy Tuesday’s opener, and I’m Digging the Defense.
Hey just think, we could be 5-1 if it weren’t for a bullpen 9th inning meltdown.
I find the Griffey part the most interesting. He’s never been someone known for his incredible batting eye. I’m wondering if this is a product of a different approach or small sample?
I’m willing to admit it right now and get excited, which is easier because we are seeing flat-out better and more entertaining baseball already this year. I reserve my cynicism about the ownership however, and will continue to judge them based on how little I see their influence on roster decisions. Even if we end up in last place again, I’m going to enjoy the season with the improved outfield D no matter what!!
Maybe we should wait a while to call scoreboard.
It’s been a good week though.
I think the expectations and fan support will depend a lot on how they do vs. LA. ‘Nostalgia’ fans and people who haven’t paid attention for years are going to come out of the woodwork to see Griffey back in Seattle–for the first couple games at least. If the M’s take the first home series, I think things will start to pick up real quick.
We started away this year. When your 3-4-5 guys start the year at home it’s not exactly going to bolster ticket sales. Good thing (ticket sales wise, not team wise) Silva in pitching BP on opening day ’cause that game would sell out regardless. If he was the second or third game it would be even worse.
My guess is the fan base’s optimism will start swell just as the regression gods begin to strike at the pen and bottom of the order.
But it doesn’t matter really if they’re in first place or last. This team’s been fun to watch. The D is great; even Yuni seems to have figured our which way the wind is blowing and has been playing a solid SS at least. The lineup still has hackers, but it also has guys who consistently work the count. The pen is full of young guys with a lot of potential and a lot to prove. It’s great.
Also, as much as I don’t like the team relying on small ball to ‘manufacture runs’ it sure as hell is fun to watch when it’s working.
I like the quote from Felix that Baker has at the end of his latest blog piece…
At what point do the people who carp about the naysayers at USSM realize that USSM was absolutely right to be pessimistic about last year’s team and (if the team continues the way it started) they were right to be more optimistic about this year’s team.
Of course you have to be a former GM and highly paid ESPN analyst like Steve Phillips to realize this year’s M’s team is worse than last year’s.
Well, in general so far so good, but the Ms have given up more runs that I’d like to see. I prefer small ball over homers, and love D, so I’m satisfied so far.
In a way I kind of hope the casual fan doesn’t figure it out for a while- I want to get good tickets still and I hate the bandwagoners…it is like going to your favorite bar on St. Patty’s Day only to find it is full of dweebs, your favorite bar stool is taken, and some dude has decided to relive the 90′s by playing Chumbawamba all night.
“I get knocked down, but I get up again…”
I just checked the archive and I think May 8 2008 was the first towel post from last year. I feel like if we’re above .500 on May 9 the people will start to notice.
I want to second smb, too. Whether or not this team turns out to be a contender or not, the entertainment value of the 09 Ms is already miles ahead of last year. I like watching this team play baseball.
The All-Star break is when I’ll really start to believe if they are still in contention then. The back of the order is still a real question mark, the back end of the bullpen has been skating on a thin tightrope every game. And you’ve got players like Branyan, Chavez, and Gutierez that haven’t ever put together a consistent complete season of offensive production, all 3 have 3 year average OBP of < .330. Johjima and Griffey are also full season question marks.
But don’t get me wrong I’m exited right now. I’d rather see a team that plays great defense, with some young players trying to make their mark, rather than a team littered with overpaid veteran has beens, like we saw the last two years.
Over the last 8 or 9 seasons, with all the players like Al Martin, Jeff Cirillo, Richie Sexson, Miguel Cairo, Rich Aurillia, Scott Spiezieo, Carlos Silva, Jose Vidro, etc., its hard not to be exited to see some young players with some athleticism out there getting a chance.
The M’s need some “big” wins or other “big” events to get people’s attention. They need to beat some competition that everyone recognizes as a top team…the Yanks, Red Sox, or (for the smarter fans) the Rays or Indians or Angels. Or they could get some attention if they can pull off a no-hitter or long winning streak.
Then, maybe, the team will get some attention locally. But, as we learned in 2001,the M’s can collectively walk on water, cure cancer and save babies from hordes of zombies and ESPN will still lead with a 4-2 Yankees loss in Kansas City. That year I actually had a Yanks fan ask me, “Who’ve the Mariners beaten anyway?”
Ummm….everyone?
I’m going with near 1st place by early June is when things start to really pick up steam.
The indication that this will be a better team will be the avoidance of the long losing streak. In ’08 they’d give away a game (bonehead play, blow a big lead) and then seem to lose interest for the following week. If these guys can pull themselves together after a tough loss and limit the long streaks, they could contend.
This April means a lot. Two series against the AL West champs. A series against the AL East champs. A series against the AL Central champs. If the Mariners are still in first after a stretch like that, maybe we’ll see the naysayers turn their attention elsewhere.
If we’re still in first place at the end of May, after beating the Rangers and Red Sox, after staring down Lincecum and the Big Unit… Who knows?
At that point, I expect to hear things like, “The Rays can’t score this year.” “The Rangers can’t pitch.” “The Giants are a NL team, and the Tigers and Royals suck.” People that want to bitch will find a way. They’ve been talking shit about the M’s for so long, it’s become habit for many.
In the end, I’m with the rest of you guys. Who cares what everybody else says about the 2009 Mariners? I’m having a great time watching them play and besides, this is a rebuilding year.
This week of Mariners baseball has been among the best in recent history. I know it’s only the first week but for the team to come out and fight as hard as they have this first week, coming back from behind several times to win games, well, hell, that fight just wasn’t in this team last year. They were content with the losses, they were content with collecting paychecks.
The team is truly playing as a team and to have done this with Ichiro on the DL has amazed me. I can’t wait until Ichiro is back and has had some time to acclimate to MLB baseball.
The nice thing about being 4-2 is that they can’t take those wins off the board. And really, there’s some hope for optimism out there.
That said, I think I want to see every starter take four or five turns through the rotation before we start talking about how good this M’s team is. That sounds about the point where you can look at the team and say, “We’ve got something to go on, here, and it looks good.”
That’s 20-25 games, and that gets us to the end of April/beginning of May. That sounds about right.
And I’ll remind everyone of the ’97 M’s. That was a .500 team, except for one hot month of June where they went 20-7. They rode that hot streak into the playoffs and got munched by the Orioles.
We’ve got plenty of room for pessimism, yet. But there are some breaks in the clouds, and some room for hope.
What I really like about this team is that we have come back a couple times already this year (twice today). Last year’s team just wasn’t up to that. Using today as an example, maybe the team comes back from the 3-0 hole, but after that home-run, they would have just given up. This year, we manufacture the runs, tie the game up, then take the lead. All of this without Ichiro! setting the table.
Oh and we could/should? be 6-0.
I was thinking they would win 80 games at the most. Right now I’m thinking if they keep up this play, Washburn and Bedard won’t be traded. Which I wouldn’t mind if their contracts run out if they are making a playoff run. Just the thought is to exciting.
Just out of curiosity, did the M’s have a 5-2 week last season? I’m sure they did, but they were few and very far between. It’s really nice to see that…
However, I wonder what the “goal” of this season really is. Yeah, yeah, we all want to win every game, take it one day at a time, and the good lord willing…
But with the Beltre/Washburn/Bedard train on its way out of town, what should we expect? Do we deviate from the plan because we’re only 5 games out in July?
In some weird way, I see the M’s clubhouse two pairs of magnets repelling each other, with Junior and Sweeney as the rubber band trying to keep it together. And with a younger manager, when will it pop apart?
What will happen when the team struggle? I’m worried about the 10-15 game losing streaks, especially if Felix gets hurt.
I’ll be there on Wednesday… Couldn’t get tickets for Tuesday, but I’ll be there with bells on, praying to God, Allah, Buddha, and Tom Cruise that Yuni doesn’t come up with the go-ahead run on third with 1 out in the ninth.
I’m very pleased. I don’t measure my pleasure by an artificial goal of “contention.” Last year, the Angels beat their Pythagorean projection by a dozen games. The M’s couldn’t have competed with that no matter what happened.
I’m looking for aggressive and smart play, sensible lineups, intelligent decisions about personnel, no looking for ponies. I think Wak has done a nice job in the first week, for instance, of letting Griffey know he’s an important part of the team, but that his appearances in the outfield don’t put the best nine men on the field. His use of Aardema, who was pitching well, for a two-inning save on Friday was a fine move. Not taking out Corcoran in the same game, or putting Kelly in for his debut in an impossible situation, also were decisions that indicate he is not a push-button manager. More and more, you see people put into situations where they have a chance of success, and that is a manager’s job.
This isn’t a 90-win team. It needs better personnel to be that. But improvements over a 59-win team aren’t hard to harvest and I’m enjoying how Wak is starting to harvest them. And I’m enjoying watching guys like Chavez, Cedeno and Gutierrez playing hard.
Someone said something about Junior’s eye. Junior has always gotten a decent number of walks, in part because when he was the Junior we remember he was thrown a lot of pitches that were nowhere near the strike zone, but while he’s not Edgar he has always been someone whose OBP is in the range of 100 points higher than his batting average (with the injuries, that is probably the best way to look at his walk statistics). If the statistics about what pitches he can’t hit haven’t caught up with the way pitchers are handling him, that’s a good thing for the Mariners.
Two points:
1) It is interesting that some people are saying that for the casual fan to come around they need to be “in contention” at the All-Star break. Does that mean that people don’t think the casual fan would enjoy the team if they were just decent/good and not in the hunt for the playoffs? If not then the ownership has to be a bit disappointed.
2) With regards to the quick start. It seems to me that the best lineup would be with Chavez at leadoff and moving Ichiro into the three spot. Chavez/Guttierez/Ichiro/Beltre/Junior etc. would be quite the L/R lineup. Is there in any possible chance that Ichiro agrees to this?
I’m curious to see how long it takes Seattle to get excited about this team.
I don’t know about everyone else, but I am already making plans to pitch a pup tent in front of Safeco so I can beat the long lines and stampede for World Series tickets this Fall.
You know, I don’t care. They don’t have to win win win now to get me excited; they just have to be Not Miguel Cairo. They’re doing great, but even if they start to suck, they’re going to suck in interesting and hopeful ways.
The fans won’t come back til next year, though. Nobody in Seattle has any idea who Franklin Guttierez is. That’s sad, but true. El Guti stands a good chance of being a star in this town eventually, though — and so does Endy Chavez.
I could not be happier than I am right now about this team, though. If they lose fifteen straight I’ll feel the same way.
There’s not way the M’s would do it, but a trade involving Ichiro might allow the M’s to get a stronger back half of their pitcher rotation. The production seems to be there this year… I know… it won’t happen.
I’ll tell you when I will get excited (from a season outcome perspective): If the M’s continue to have success against their division. (I say continue and know it’s a stretch because we’ve only played two AL West games, but we’re undefeated!) With a four team divison, if you can’t win against these three teams, you suck and you lose and you go home at the end of the regular season.
But, I’ll admit, I’m already excited!
In a bull market, a buy and hold strategy is the best. A bear market however, like those seen in emerging markets, tends towards some extreme rallies. In which case, the buy and hold strategy fails.
I’m not trying to be cynical, but don’t jinx the season 6 days in!!! We’re just starting to like this team!!
And now is no time to be discussing an ichi trade. get real.
It’s traditional to wait until at least your third post before you start advocating for an Ichiro trade.
I don’t see how the M’s let Bedard go after turning their best arms into relievers.
Good to see the M’s playing some good baseball again. Tomorrow we got King Felix pitching and hopefully he can build on his first outing and get the run support he needs to win. The D is so exciting to watch especially Guti. I didn’t expect much from him but man he is a hell of a ballplayer. I’m excited already and hopefully the M’s won’t let me down again this year
nvm wasn’t paying attention tomorrow we have bedard pitching we i also like and hope he does well and stays healthy for once
I am already enjoying this team more than I have in quite sometime. Instead of always thinking of how everything effects the future, I can enjoy watching them now. I am realist I forsaw 79 wins, and I accepted the fact that 90+ loses meant all the anticipated moves and more. It is early, but I sure prefer watching this years more fundamentally sound team play, than anything in the last five seasons. And if they are over-achieving,
I will enjoy it while it lasts. As for the casual fan, I deal with a diverse sample of sports fans of varying degrees of interest and knowledge on a dailey basis. I have already seen a upsurge of enthusiasm all this week and I think it will continue to snowball. 2008 was tough year all around sports wise locally, so if the M’s can maintain this, I think that the fanbase is going to grow steadily, but it is a process that is already in play.
Uh, no, that would be a bad idea. Chavez is on a nice little hot streak, but he’s playing well beyond his true ability right now and really belongs down in the 7 or 8 hole. Ichiro should remain leadoff.
We’re on top of the AL West and we’re about to sweep Oakland under a rug! I’m in!!!! I agree – this team is SO much fun to watch! Yeah, the kids are kids, but that just adds to the unpredictability of it for me. Also I like how Wak is mixing it up, don’t know what he’s gonna do yet. I wonder if Morrow is injured – seems way worse control than just spring training warmup. I’m digging the offense! Chavez is a lightning bolt! And Jojima getting clutch hits is awesome!! GO M’S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Attendance will stay down for the first couple of months, regardless of how the team does on the field. Attendance always lags performance. Oh, sure, there will be a small bump because of Griffey, but that will wear off quickly.
If the team is in contention mid season, then we will see attendance climb for the second half.
I’m pretty sure they know that baseball attendance always lags performance. It’s pretty easy to see it in attendance numbers from just about any team. Heck, how many years did it take Bavasi to drive away the M’s fans? Think they will all come back after a hot week?
I expect Z is thinking hard about what to do in order to make the team better in 2010. I understand the exitement of a winning road trip to start the season, but this team still has some important weaknesses.
And that’s the situation for those of us that follow the Mariners closely. We’re just so happy that the team is fun to watch again that we will be excited even if the team is out of contention in May!
How excited do you want folks to get about a true-talent level 77-win team?
A great week, especially at the beginning of the season, is a great thing. But let’s not pretend that there’s been a fundamental shift in the talent level that we’re talking about.
Griffey won’t slam lefties all year, the team won’t win most of Washburn and Silva’s starts, etc.
Small sample theatre works both ways.
I have a Mariners jacket that I wear all the time and for the first time in about 2 years people were stopping me to talk about the Mariners and how excited they were about the team so far. I think the word is spreading a little more about what’s going on. It’s exciting.
Regarding the “contention” issue, it is important. I remember going to those playoff games. I remember opening a folder with a couple strips of tickets that had “World Series” and “Safeco Field” printed on them. Still have those, never got to use them, but it was pretty exciting to think about it. And the ALCS games I went to were as to regular season games as USSM is to an ESPN analysis segment.
So I’m happy the team is better. I’m happy they’re making better decisions, and I’m happy they’ve won 4 out of 6 games without their best player. It augers well for the future.
But excitment is about the playoffs. If they’re not in contention come September, then September is going to be about sorting out who might help them next year. Again. Been there, done that, could use a break from it.
So, I’m happy, but not quite excited yet. Happy is a big step up from last year though. Last year, I had trouble even watching the games. That team just represented stupid to me and I couldn’t feel good about cheering on stupid.
A few more come from behind wins would definitely help. If the team doesn’t look like it quit, like last year, and plays to win, they’ll be more interesting to watch.
Well everybody follows ESPN/SI and last year they predicted a 1st place finish for our 08 team… Now even though our team this year is better they predict a last place finish meh!
We won’t be cellar dweller we know that but we were definite tossed aside and underrated coming into the season.
Anyone notice the Mariners have the best UZR so far: Fangraphs 2009 UZR
Tough to come from behind when you’re shutting the other team out.
Just trying to let you know when I would feel like things are looking up for the M’s (which was winning in the west), … which was the original question, as I remember it, right?
You’re right, it’s not real. Sorry.
Gotcha. Sorry. #3 next time. But advocating…, not what I was doing. We need a stronger pitching rotation, no question, but Ichiro’s probably not the best way to get it.
We’ve discussed an Ichiro trade ad nauseam. I’d encourage you to look back through the archives for the current state of the discussion.
I’m excited. It’s fun to see reasonably smart baseball from the M’s. I don’t know if it can last (haven’t been around long enough), but I’m enjoyed watching. Spring’s hopes are eternal.
Will do. Thanks.