Opening Day, Part II
The new look M’s take the field in about three hours for their first home game of the season. Very few people expected this series to feature the first place Mariners, and I’d imagine most people outside of Seattle expect the Angels to “correct” that early season fluke in this series. However, I’d give the M’s pretty good odds tonight, at least.
I know, Carlos Silva is pitching. But for Silva, this is about as good a match-up as he’s going to get. The Angels line-up is almost as RH heavy as the Mariners – their only LH bats are Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Kendry Morales, and Erick Aybar, and neither Figgins nor Aybar is going to scare you much. Almost all of the Angels power is right-handed, so Silva should be able to feature his sinker/slider combination against Guerrero, Hunter, Napoli, Kendrick, and Rivera. You neutralize those five, and the Angels aren’t going to score many runs.
LAA counters with Shane Loux, who is basically their version of Silva. He throws a 91 MPH fastball that doesn’t miss any bats at all, and his game plan is to put the ball over the plate and pray. He’s the kind of pitcher that a contact oriented team can beat down pretty badly – Betancourt and Lopez can hit guys like this.
Don’t be surprised if we’re talking about the 6-2 Mariners after tonight’s game. The next two will be significantly tougher to win, but at least for one night, bet on the M’s.
Silva also has the good defensive outfield behind him today
Well, it’s April when hope “springs” eternal. So how much better is it for Silva to be pitching at Safeco instead of the Metrodome (or other visitor non-Safeco parks) where he got torched last time?
Safeco doesn’t help Silva as much as it will help Washburn/Rowland-Smith, since his main problems are with LH batters, and Safeco is actually LH hitter friendly.
bookie says M’s +105. Hmmmm
Have they announced who’s playing RF yet? Griffey has a tight back and is DHing.
This should be the kind of guy the Mariners can get to but isn’t Trevor Cahill basically of the same mould? And he gave our lineup a very hard time last go around.
The Angels’ infield D is average at worst so there won’t be any breaks for our collection of no-power groundballers. Actually, I think the Mariners success today may depend on Branyan or Griffey coming through with some big hits. The odds are stacked in their favor.
ESPN.com is reporting that Ken Griffey Jr. will serve as the DH in the Mariners’ home opener against the Angels Tuesday due to a tight back.
Our View: Griffey almost had to be in the lineup tonight for the M’s home opener, but if his back is sore he’s probably not going to improve upon his current 2-15 start.
Cahill is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Shane Loux sucks.
Bet on Silva? Not a chance.
Would it make sense to give Cedeno some starts at second base when Silva faces more lefty-heavy lineups? It’s probably a good idea to get Lopez a day off here or there and that seems like the best time to look for a defensive upgrade on the right side of the infield.
1. C. Figgins, 3B E.Chavez, RF
2. H. Kendrick, 2B R. Cedeno, LF
3. B. Abreu, LF K. Griffey Jr., DH
4. V. Guerrero,DH A. Beltre, 3B
5. T. Hunter,CF R. Branyan, 1B
6. K. Morales, 1B J. Lopez, 2B
7. M. Napoli,C K. Johjima, C
8. G. Matthews Jr.RF F. Gutierrez, CF
9. E. Aybar,SS Y. Betancourt, SS
Where is the darn Edit button when you need it?
Mariners:
E. Chavez, RF
R. Cedeno, LF
K. Griffey Jr., DH
A. Beltre, 3B
R. Branyan, 1B
J. Lopez, 2B
K. Johjima, C
F. Gutierrez, CF
Y. Betancourt, SS
Angels
C. Figgins, 3B
H. Kendrick, 2B
B. Abreu, LF
V. Guerrero, DH
T. Hunter, CF
K. Morales, 1B
M. Napoli, C
G. Matthews Jr., RF
E. Aybar, SS
Beautiful stats of the day:
(Silva) is 0-7 with an 8.13 ERA in his last 12 starts and has lost 16 of his last 17 decisions. He was 0-7 with a 7.90 ERA in his final eight outings at Safeco Field last season and hasn’t won there since April 12, 2008.
So is Wlad’s wrist still hurting? Or is Cedeno playing left because of some other reason?
Oh please stop the “Pump It Up” music… The horror…
Probably because he’s not that good a defender and Cedeno is probably better in the field by a large enough margin to make up for what (if anything) he gives up against RH compared to Wlad.
A friend who plays fantasy baseball always sends me the “matchup analysis” (which often uses hilariously SSS) whenever it involves the M’s. Apparently the summary today for Bobby Abreu facing Silva is:
I know it sounds like an odd thing to say, but I wonder if the Angels are just happy to be on the road, away from their home stadium?
Silva is so happy he doesnt have to run haha
Crap! I forgot since I’m in L.A. I won’t get the Mariner feed. 2+ hours of Rex Hudler, YIKES!
Is there any way to get the radio or tv on the internet for free?
Dave, what’s your opinion of Weaver (tomorrow night’s starter — and maybe you want to save answering until then)? Despite being (by far, as we unfortunately well know) the better of the Weaver brothers, he’s been pretty inconsistent — bad ’07, good ’08 (even better than it looked, since he had a 70% strand rate and his FIP was lower than his ERA by 0.43). And while I didn’t see his first start he put up a heck of a line. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher (even slightly more than Washburn) so I guess we should expect a lot of variation in his results. Do you think he has progressed and his first start is an indication of what the M’s will face all season?
Let’s see…you mentioned won-loss record and ERA. All you left out was chemistry, veteran leadership, and grit!
Yikes, Weaver put up that line against Boston! Let’s hope he falls off for a bit.
Yes, Loux sucks, but our lineup has problems with righty sinker/slider guys good or no, and this is an indirect quote from you.
Last time I ever doubt what Dave has to say.
Dave,
Your WSJ employers need to pay more attention to you. They apparently didn’t get the message that the Ms were likely to win today. I believe the % in the paper was 53%/47% Angels likely to win.
kcw