A False Dichotomy
We’ve done several posts so far pointing out that the weakness of the AL West presents an opportunity for the M’s to make the playoffs this year, even if this isn’t a roster that would be good enough to contend in most years. Inevitably, someone comes along in the comments and suggests that the team should focus on building a winning team in the future and not worry about the present. When the issue of what the M’s should do with Adrian Beltre and Erik Bedard come July is raised, it is almost always framed as a “win now or win later” proposition.
I’d like to suggest that the Mariners do not have to choose. You can win now and win later. Contending in 2009 does not have to include harming future teams, and neither does building for the future suggest that the team can’t also contend this year.
When Zdrueincik was hired and started making moves, the media was quick to point out that while he wouldn’t use the word rebuilding, that is what Mariner fans should expect. The presumption heading into the offseason was that the new administration was going to have to take some time to tear down existing structures and reboot the franchise, and that Mariner fans should get used to losing for a few years while the process takes place.
Zduriencik rejected that idea publicly, but it still prevailed in many circles. However, the new GM did exactly what he should have done this winter – restructured the roster to get younger, yes, but also to get better. He avoided the blow-it-up scenario that traditional rebuilding models usually follow, and filled holes on the major league roster with older, stopgap players who likely won’t be part of the next good Mariner team. He turned overvalued assets into a greater quantity of undervalued ones and added wins to the roster without putting the team’s long term future in harms way.
The M’s can do the same thing this summer.
This roster could use another quality left-handed bat, improvements at shortstop and catcher, a quality left-handed reliever, and a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher. Adding one or two of those pieces would help solidify the M’s as legitimate contenders in a division where 85 wins gives you a pretty good chance of making the playoffs.
There are players who fit those needs that will be available this summer and will not require mortgaging the future to acquire. You don’t have to surrender your elite prospects in order to fill holes. Good GMs find quality role players for minimal costs all the time.
Under Zduriencik, there’s no doubt that the Mariners are working to put a stronger foundation in place for the future. But do not misconstrue a long term plan as a short term white flag. This team can simultaneously build for 2010 and beyond while contending in 2009.
It’s not an either/or proposition. Let’s win in ’09 and build for the future.
Well put Dave. Every year I think the M’s will contend no matter what. Regardless of the individuals on the team. Last year everyone picked the M’s to finish 1st, or at least contend. This year, picked to most likely to be at the bottom of the West. Baseball is a funny creature. Anything can happen. I agree, win now. Try to win next year too. By constantly improving the ballclub. Nice post.
Actually, last year, we were telling anyone who would listen that the team wasn’t very good. The only people who picked the M’s to contend were those who don’t really understand how baseball teams win games.
(coughStevePhillipscough)
True Dave, very true.
“This roster could use another quality left-handed bat, improvements at shortstop and catcher, a quality left-handed reliever, and a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher.”
I don’t think the M’s will go out and get another starting pitcher, catcher, or shortstop, but I could see them getting a lefty bat. Who, besides Geoff Jenkins, is available? Ray Durham?
It will be interesting if the M’s are still leading the West at the break. What do you do with the trade bait guys, i.e. Beltre, Washburn?
If the M’s are in first place, I doubt trades of Beltre, Wash, and the Interview would take place. At least I would like to see them take the 2000 ARod road. Let the players help you win, deal with FA losses in the offseason. Now, maybe Zduriencik could manage the Billy Beane style trade where he dumps players who will become FAs while still getting back compensation that keeps the major league team at least as competitive as they were prior to said trades. Again, it is not always an either/or scenario.
Deal Washburn and install one of RRS or Olson in the rotation, and hold onto Beltre, try to resign him, and take the type-A compensation in the alternative. If the team’s in contention, Bedard should stick around too. If he’s healthy, he’ll at least get Type B status and an outside chance for a Type A (this is assuming he’d be a large part of the reason the Ms are in contention if we end up there), so it’s not like playing out the year gets the team nothing to build around in return.
Is there even a remote chance the M’s make a play to extend Bedard for another two years if they feel he can pitch 7 innings and be healthy?
I have to say it is quite enjoyable watching games when he is being this dominant.
Does this mean that you’re not sold on Jeff Clement as our catcher of the future?
Jeff Clement will likely be traded before the July deadline, so hopefully he’ll fetch a nice price.
There is an article in “Baseball Between the Numbers” addressing this very issue. The idea that there is some sort of success-cycle (you have to be bad now to get good later, or vice-versa) in baseball is not supported by research. In fact, the teams that have sustained success are those that simultaneously build for the present and the future (and those that get a little lucky). The Braves and Yankees of the ’90s are good examples, as are the Red Sox of recent years. Conversely, there are teams that have continually sucked despite always trying to load up on young talent. It sounds like Zdrueincik understands this, which bodes well for the Ms’ fans.
I agree. Let him play or trade him before the deadline.
It may not be an either/or proposition, but it isn’t without trade offs. Specifically the decision to trade Bedard and/or Beltre for prospects. It won’t doom their future if they don’t trade them. But it could significantly enhance the prospects in the pipeline if they do.
But if you have a chance to win now, take it. You never know what’ll happen once you get to the playoffs. Ask the ’07 Rockies.
Or even the ’06 Cardinals. They parlayed 83 wins in the regular season into a championship.
If the team is committed to going for it this year then forget about trading Beltre, Bedard or even Washburn. With the M’s outfield defense Jarrod’s results will be nice and shiny.
Wlad and Clement are the most logical pieces to leverage into immediate and long-term value. Wlad has limited upside playing on this team and in Safeco. And Jeff, well, the organization basically gave him the finger.
What I would love to know Dave (great post by the way) is whether the M’s have a realistic shot at signing BOTH Beltre and Bedard to extensions.
I think those two players are CRITICAL to success this year as well as the future. The M’s don’t have anyone close to Beltre’s talent at 3B as a replacement nor do they have anyone in the system close to Bedard. With Aumont and Morrow now in the pen I see keeping Bedard to be a very important thing.
Would love to know if you have heard anything on whether the M’s have reached out to the agents for Beltre or Bedard to talk extension.
Jeff Clement is the lefty bat.
Make the run now. No, don’t mortgage your future, but if you are still in it at the break, you have to make a run. Baseball is an unpredictable beast. When you get the chance to make a run, you have to. I agree that I would love to see Bedard extended…Beltre 50/50. His bat hasn’t given us that much in reality. Yes, he is amazing defensively, but a suitable replacement can be found.
Probably not in this organization.
The M’s do get draft picks if Beltre goes at the end of the season, and he’s a good piece to have if they rebuild the rest of the infield this offseason. It’s going to be agonizing if the M’s are, say, leading or trailing by just a couple of games in July. Beane dealt Harden when the A’s
were five games behind the Angels and 3 1/2 games out in the wild card, but he had a lot of injured regulars at that point and clearly decided that the A’s wouldn’t be able to sustain, let alone climb ahead of those clubs. Unless the Angels’ bad fortune reverses itself and they get everybody back and healthy all at once, the situation this year is much murkier… and both Texas and Oakland must be thinking the same thing (even if things seem even murkier for them).
Either that, or they bring him up to the majors again and he finally starts hitting like he has in the minors. In which case you get your lefty bat and your new catcher in one go. Of course, that hasn’t worked in the past. And really, everything that can be said about Clement has been said already in several other recent comment threads, and I don’t want to start another round of it, so I’m not going any further on the subject.
I am interested in who might be available as a middle-infield upgrade. Is it possible that any of the clubs with stud shortstops (ie Marlins, Phillies, Mets…) have a logjam in the minors at that position? (Sorry, I don’t follow the farm teams of other organizations… I have trouble keeping up with the future 40 here). A trade for a AAA great glove / weak bat SS, even one ready to make the jump if not for that guy ahead of him, shouldn’t require anything that hurts the M’s long-term chances.
(Hey, the Indians have this Vilabuena guy, good with the glove, nice OBP, I wonder… )
I’d say Mike Carp is the lefty bat of ’10. If we can keep Beltre we should but it would be foolish (IMO) to sign Bedard for anything longer than 2 years. I would rather take a Type-B compensation pick.
I’ve thought the same thing. I think many beat writers plus the previous administration have given people the idea that rebuilding towards really good in the future means not being somewhat good in the present. The M’s used Felix Fermin and Luis Sojo to fill in at shortstop in between Hall of Famers Omar Vizquel and A-Rod. We easily could do that now at catcher and shortstop. Russell Branyan wasn’t intended as a long term answer at first base. Beltre probably will be re-signed but some our tradeable pitchers probably will be here in August.
Don’t you see Belre LA, Boston or Chicago-bound? Mike Lowell is going to be 36 years old next year. Derek Lee is getting long in the tooth, and Beltre would likely destroy Wrigley. The Dodgers might want to take a look at him, as well. These are all teams that the M’s can’t compete with in regards to money…
In fact, the Dodgers might be in a position if they are looking to make a run in the playoffs, to trade for Beltre this year, and then sign him right away.
And remember, regardless of the depth situation in NY, there are two teams out there who logic and reason does not really apply, and Beltre could always be offered a 100 year contract for Eleventy-Billion dollars from George.
Probably not in this organization.
Probably not, but if the team wants to pull a lefthander with patience and power out of thin air… Clement’s not going to cost them anything, and has a reasonable shot at being just as good as anyone they pick up otherwise.
Everybody has to remember that Beltre is a Boras client. He will not be resigning during the season. He will go on the open market and the Ms will have to bid like everyone else. You don’t sign with Boras with the intention to not use his tactics.
I had forgotten this. May as well wave goodbye to Beltre now.
Look at this list: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/scott-boras-cli.html
Its practically a list of players that teams wish they hadn’t have paid so much for. God, I hate that guy, but if it were me, I’d have a hard time not making him my agent, too. I’m pretty sure he could get me a contract with the Mets for $20M, right now.
It may not be an either/or proposition, but it isn’t without trade offs. Specifically the decision to trade Bedard and/or Beltre for prospects. It won’t doom their future if they don’t trade them. But it could significantly enhance the prospects in the pipeline if they do.
Not really- Zdurencik isn’t likely to do the Pat Gillick “I hate draft picks” move of not bothering to offer arbitration to Bedard and Beltre, so there should be draft picks coming back. Dave’s pointed out that draft pick compensation usually is close to a wash with what you get in July deadline deals, so I think the downside risk is quite minimal.
Probably not, but if the team wants to pull a lefthander with patience and power out of thin air… Clement’s not going to cost them anything, and has a reasonable shot at being just as good as anyone they pick up otherwise.
That’s probably the most irritating thing about this organization right now (well, OK, tied with turning all our #1 draft picks into not very valuable relief pitchers), that this team very badly needs the sort of thing Clement offers the team as a hitter, but has essentially made it blatantly obvious that Clement has no future with this team.
I can see the logic (Zdurencik is just basically not interested in poor defensive players taking the field regularly, even if you’re a plus bat- consider that Griffey has played the field a grand total of 3 games so far, with exactly zero of those games being since Ichiro came off the DL), but it’s disappointing nonetheless. Clement is the new Edgar in this organization: nothing left to prove at AAA, and the organization is screwing around with some pretty mediocre options at his position.
The Rangers lack in pitching
The A’s lack in hitting
The Angels lack in health
If the Mariners can be just average in those categories,they might just have a chance this year to win the West. (Which I think will be won with 85 wins)
Clement wouldn’t cost the Mariners anything beyond a missed opportunity to cash in on what luster remains on his status as a power hitting catching prospect. You said it yourself: he has a reasonable shot as being just as good as anyone they pick up. Guys like Clement and Branyan are everywhere – the only difference is a guy like Clement carries inflated value in the form of blue sky and catcher’s gear. Branyan was once the same, as was every other aspiring 3TO-ish hitter in their mid-20’s. The truth is, those guys are generally more valuable (and cheaper) at age 30 with improved discipline and restraint.
So why not deal Clement away for something more useful/valuable and replace Clement with a Clement clone? What could a package of Clement & Yuni net in return?
ec says:
Clement can’t catch, period. His position is DH, and that “pretty mediocre option” is named Ken Griffey Jr.
God willing. With this being possibly Griffey’s last year, and with Sweeney on his way out soon, too, doesn’t Clement really have one more shot, at the end of this year, to become a DH/1B? If they have that much confidence in his bat at the major league level, doesn’t that seem inevitable?
Of course, right now the Rainiers have something like 18 people playing at first, and something has to happen with the TheHair-Shelton-Carp thing, eventually, right?
I mean, COME ON! What the hell is going on here?!?
Have the concerns about Clement bat speed gone away? Thats a pretty major issue that no one is bringing up.
Clement needs to get over the idea that he is going to be the everyday catcher for the M’s and just sack up and DH/1B. He does that, we make a few good trades, and we win.
Clement hasn’t really shown his potential at all yet. I don’t know why everyone is so hung up on him to be the “next Edgar” or to be a starting player for a major league organization. Yes, he’s young and a left-handed bat but I’m not buying him to turn into an Edgar-like player or even something to be excited about. He’s awesome in AAA but that’s about it. Either he converts to a 1B/DH or the M’s just need to get rid of him. Just because he was a first round pick doesn’t mean he should be given that much leeway to produce at the major league level. I’m sorry, I just don’t get the major attraction with him.
What could a package of Clement & Yuni net in return?
Zero?
Clement can’t catch, period. His position is DH, and that “pretty mediocre option†is named Ken Griffey Jr.
That doesn’t really change my point much (though I’d argue you could probably put Clement at 1B, too). There’s also the problem that when you look at Johjima’s 2008 and his current DL stint, he may well be done as a decent offensive C, in which case, while Clement doesn’t catch very well, none of the M’s catchers hit very well (and it’s likely that Clement’s bad defense wouldn’t cost as many runs as having a C triumvirate that hits .230/.300/.350).
But even pushing Clement to DH, Griffey isn’t a HOF talent at the plate any more, and a 39 year old with injury history and clearly declining numbers is a non-zero risk to collapse and at best gets you some OK numbers, whereas Clement has some pleasant UPside potential. I understand the warm fuzzy/clubhouse leadership/character issues/attendance issues that made Griffey a decent signing, but really, the fact that the M’s desperately need young LH bats, and the player who is quite arguably the best LH bat on the roster is something like 4th on the depth chart at two different positions is pretty unfortunate for the team. Again, I understand that GMZ values defense very highly… but it’s just too bad things have gone down like this.
Yes, he’s young and a left-handed bat but I’m not buying him to turn into an Edgar-like player or even something to be excited about. He’s awesome in AAA but that’s about it.
… which is exactly what I was hearing about Edgar in 1986-1987 while the M’s were screwing around with Jim Presley as a no-hit 3B, playing Darnell Coles, etc.
No, this doesn’t mean I think Jeff Clement is going to win batting titles. Edgar’s minor league profile doesn’t really fit how he turned out in the major leagues, either- while I don’t have PECOTA projections and so on, I’d guess Edgar’s career ended up in the 95%+ range of potential outcomes for a guy who hit like he did in AAA. If it makes you feel better, think of Clement at the new Ken Phelps, or Mike Easler, or Jack Cust, or any number of guys who get the label as “AAA hitter” based on small sample sizes in the majors. Generally, these players get bad defensive reputations (quite possibly deserved), but they can contribute to winning baseball teams.
Do we know for certain that the organization is through with Clement? Could it be that he’s got some kind of checklist of goals for defensive improvement, and he’ll be called up mid-season if he reaches them? And that he is expected to do so?
Mulling this over led me to wonder if we’re possibly “showcasing” Rob Johnson as a defensive player with the intention of trading him. I guess he’s worthless but at least this theory lets me believe in the arrival of a big bat from the minors.
To get back to the topic of the blog itself, I think it’s VITAL that a good GM realize not only is it NOT an either/or choice to rebuild or to make a push to win it all, but in reality, if you want to be successful for the long haul, you have to be doing both at the same time, constantly. A team headed to the World Series still has to be building for the future, sometimes even at a higher rate than struggling teams, because success means you’re not going to be able to sign all your free agents over the next couple years, as their value just went way up. This is where Mr. Z excites me the most, ’cause he wants to win, but you can also tell he constantly has stuff brewing on multiple burners, and seems to enjoy that, and will always be trying to make the team better, win or lose. I think he gets it. And we won’t have to worry about whether we’re rebuilding, or contending. They should go hand in hand, as soon as we can unload some of our out of date, not worth their price tag, Gucci baggage (ie- Silva, Batista, and – wishful thinking here- Johjima).
(addendum to last post: Oops, and Washburn.)
“In fact, the teams that have sustained success are those that simultaneously build for the present and the future”
And then you go on to list probably the 3 teams that spend the most money in player payroll and on acquiring prospects.
Rebuilding isn’t always required, but in the world of haves and have-nots that is the MLB, sometimes you gotta rebuild because close to 50% of the teams in the league will have losing records… and chances are those teams had a losing record the year before too.
I would think that teams with a relatively large payroll should be able to “reload” without a full-fledged “rebuilding” (see eg. Boston, NYY). The notorious rebuilding projects (eg. Cleveland, TB) have generally been carried out by teams with more limited resources, right?
This would lead me to believe that there’s no reason to expect (or even want) the M’s to tear everything down and start from scratch.
But the Mariners are not “have-nots.” They’ve got a substantial bankroll and a lenient ownership. It isn’t anything like what you might find in Oakland or Minnesota.
I would think that teams with a relatively large payroll should be able to “reload†without a full-fledged “rebuilding†(see eg. Boston, NYY). The notorious rebuilding projects (eg. Cleveland, TB) have generally been carried out by teams with more limited resources, right?
Well, yes… but as we saw in Seattle from 2004-2008, some teams are better at it than others.
Probably just wishful thinking, but i think the best thing for the mariners would be to deal Washburn/Clement in a deal that requires the team to also take Silva. Regardless of how you feel on the guy, the team could use that 24+ million. Beltre and Bedard are better than any prospects we can bring up, and if we can keep them with Wash/Silva money, we definitely should. Beltre probably cannot get a raise, so i think keeping both while dumping Silva should be possible. The rotation would then be Felix Bedard RRS Jakubauskas and a AAA option. If we have the holes in the rotation there may even be a chance to get Morrow to start for the second half of the season. I think Jakubauskas/RRS would be about the same production; (Wash is the best, but Silva is the worst).
Also, I think the market has shifted in a way that makes traditional “rebuilding” a very poor strategy.
It used to be that maybe you could trade an older marquee player making a ton of money and get good young players in return (and not just out of Bavasi). Even if we weren’t saddled with old/overpaid/shitty rather than old/overpaid/good, I think the shifting in player contracts is going to make it much more difficult to get much back from what would have been great trade bait 5 years ago.
Probably just wishful thinking, but i think the best thing for the mariners would be to deal Washburn/Clement in a deal that requires the team to also take Silva.
If the other team is taking on the full salary I think we’d be incredibly lucky to get a bag of used diapers back for those three or any combination of two. I could see someone taking Washburn and Clement for virtually nothing, but that’s about it.
Tmac
I was really hoping Silva could have strung 3 or 4 good starts together, after that oddly fine home opener. We would have actually had a chance to move him then. But that salary is not going anywhere, period. And I don’t think there’s anyone out there willing to take him and Washburn together– just not a lot of teams in the “two pitchers for $20 million who have .500 records (on a good year)” market.
I thought about it, long and hard, when you posted your post– and really really wanted it to be possible. But this is a long term scar on our head, that’s not going away anytime soon, from when Bavasi got really drunk one night and hit us over the head with a really expensive beer bottle.
As for Jakubauskas and RRS, I’m kinda hoping when Ryan gets back he becomes the left hander in the pen for a little while, to get his pitch counts up, and Jak keeps his spot in the rotation.
any chance we could get Jason Donald from the Phillies? Considering he’s blocked by Jimmy Rollins AND Chase Utley… probably a step down from Cedeno on defense but projected to be a much better hitter…
Dave, to me this is the hanging slider in this post…that you didn’t take a swing at.
What’s your sense on these two guys?
So are you saying we should keep Bedard and Beltre and add these pieces…or use those pieces to get better people to fill those needs?
And in either case, how much does the ‘being in contention’ factor matter?
I could see someone taking Washburn and Clement for virtually nothing, but that’s about it.
I’ll grant that Washburn is going to fetch what your typical veteran starting pitcher fetches at the deadline (not much), but why is Jeff Clement’s value virtually nothing? He’s 25 years old and projected as a .750+ OPS player by a number of projection systems. Zdurencik may be ready to give up on the guy, but this guy got punted by Billy Beane, Brian Cashman AND Theo Epstein before he started hitting.
So are you saying we should keep Bedard and Beltre and add these pieces…or use those pieces to get better people to fill those needs?
You can’t rob Peter to make Paul a pennant contender. It’s pretty inconceivable how trading 3-4+ WAR players improves your team for a pennant run, and there are exactly four players capable of that level of performance on this team right now: Ichiro, King Felix, Beltre and Bedard.
I think your example about Pena is the point. By the way the Mariners have valued Clement, they have indicated he currently has little or no value to them…thus, that’s the real world selling price.
That’s been the entire downside of the Griffey signing…it’s preventing the Mariners and other teams from seeing what Clement could do with 450 ML at bats, no matter where he plays (or doesn’t play) in the field.
So if, as previously asserted, the value of the players you would receive by trading an asset in midseason is roughly equivalent to the value of the draft picks you’d receive by waiting until after the season to move that same asset, then there really is no sense considering mid-season deals, right?
Don’t you see Belre LA, Boston or Chicago-bound?
I won’t speculate on Chicago or LA.
In Boston, Youkilis can move from 1st back to 3rd and Lars Anderson can play 1st for a lot less money than Beltre (a Scott Boras client) will demand. The Teixeira saga has probably left a bad taste in the team’s mouth about dealing with Mr. Boras if they can avoid it.
No. It’s a little like deferred payments. The value of deferred payments, including interest, is supposed to be the same as the value of payment immediately, only with the cash stretched out and grossed up for the time value of money and the credit risk. Same with these trades. If you could get a major-league-ready player today, but a lesser one than you’d get with the draft pick(s), you do the deal if you can use the major-league-ready player now, assuming the value of the major-league-ready player is at least equal to the value of the draft choice multiplied by a factor for the time it would take him to reach the major leagues and the risk that he would not.
To take an example that assumes a bunch of premises, if the M’s were offered a major-league-ready shortstop as part of a deal for Beltre, they might look at it like this:
A. They need a major-league-ready shortstop right now.
B. They have a replacement for Beltre in Tuiasosopo.
C. The draft choices they’d get for Beltre cannot be determined, but if he’s a Boras client, it’s not unlikely he’ll play the games that end up costing the signing team less in draft picks like he did the past off-season (and when you’re representing a client, this is the appropriate thing to do).
So you run a calculus and decide if it’s a good deal. Obviously, if you were offered players of the caliber of the ones the M’s got for RJ at the deadline in 1998, you’d do it (you’re not seeing such offers right now). If we were offered some relief pitchers, we wouldn’t take the deal.
One reason I don’t see getting anything for Washburn and Clement together is that you’re sort of limiting your market. To get a good deal you need to find a team that is willing to overpay to rent Washburn, and thinks Clement has value to them.
In such a deal I think Clement would end up being treated as an add in. Maybe you get a slightly better prospect in return, but I don’t think it would net you much more.
We said the same thing about Doyle, and he promptly got traded for Vidro.
At least with GMZ in charge there’s a good chance we’re no long that mindbogglingly stupid.
So if, as previously asserted, the value of the players you would receive by trading an asset in midseason is roughly equivalent to the value of the draft picks you’d receive by waiting until after the season to move that same asset, then there really is no sense considering mid-season deals, right?
I wouldn’t argue that at all. The M’s have several positions (C, SS, starting pitcher) where they are playing marginally above replacement value (e.g., Washburn) to replacement value (or below) players (e.g., our triumvirate of no-hit Cs), as Dave pointed out. You can often pick up 1-2 WAR players for very little: think of what we got back trading away Jamie Moyer, Randy Winn or Ron Villone, for example.
What Dave is suggesting is that this year, instead of being the ones SELLING veterans for B-level prospects, we could easily be BUYING, and at fairly minimal cost to the future of the organization.
Let me amend that: I called Randy Winn a 2 WAR player. He’s more like a 3 WAR player. We got a LHP with no fastball left after surgery for him. Granted, this was Bill Bavasi, who when he wasn’t making bad trades was making unlucky ones, but still.
That’s just not true though, not in any meaningful sense. Tui is a long shot to be equivalent to Beltre offensively and he’s not even on the same planet defensively. He’s likely replacement level at best. You’d have to get a 4 WAR SS for the Mariners to even tread water in such a trade.
Interesting take. Dave, can you confirm or deny?
The M’s do have a log jam of B-level prospects, and I think there’s a group photo of the bullpen next to “log jam” in the dictionary.
Thinking in terms of what’s overvalued and what’s undervalued, I get the impression several teams still overvalue relievers. Since we apparently have two more 1st round bullpen arms coming along next year, perhaps we could afford to trade a few of those.
Also, thinking about it, “contending now” also probably means the M’s should start wrapping up some of their evaluation projects early. Who will be the guys in the bullpen? Is Branyan a full time 1B, or does he need a platoon partner and who is it? Is Yuni or Cedeno going to be the SS in September? Wither Jeff Clement? etc.
Make calls on those early and deal the out guys before July with an eye towards plugging the holes Dave mentioned.
Wither Jeff Clement?
I think you mean “whither,” although withering is not completely inapposite either.
It might have helped if you had read this introduction to the section you criticized:
I wasn’t saying Tui was the equivalent of Beltre, I was saying that if you assumed that the M’s considered him a replacement for third base (which I was not contending for, I was just explaining how you would make the analysis), then if you got a major-league-ready replacement shortstop in the deal, you might go ahead and make the deal.
I wonder if this particular inefficiency that we’re talking about – that teams would be better off taking draft picks rather than the prospects at the deadline for their expiring contracts – isn’t soon addressed by the market. One would think that if teams were to correctly value the expiring contracts of type-a and type-b free agents, they would offer better prospects in return. Billy Beane seems to make his bread and butter exploiting these deadline deals.
I was criticizing that line of thinking and I do not believe I attributed said thought to you in any way. I was merely pointing out that the logic behind thinking that Tui is a suitable replacement for Beltre is flawed.
Watever
You must be one of those wastrels, needlessly squandering letters. Think of all the electrons used every day displaying unnecessary digraphs. If we could get every American to reduce their use by just 10%…
I think it already has started. If my memory serves, Dave wrote a piece on exactly that last year. Rent-a-players were not available for peanuts at the deadline any longer.
I think it already has started. If my memory serves, Dave wrote a piece on exactly that last year. Rent-a-players were not available for peanuts at the deadline any longer.
Right. And wouldn’t it naturally follow that teams would start offering >peanuts for these rent-a-players’ services? Although, I guess in the case of Washburn this discussion is moot cause no team that thinks that analytically is going to offer him arbitration anyway.
Clement has started off slowly in Tacoma. Given that he’s hitting below .200, trading him would be difficult right now. In terms of the first base “situation” down there, they are doing the best they can, but it’s clear that something has to give soon. LaHair played RF against the Salt Lake City Bees tonite, and proved he is not much of an outfielder. Carp played LF and Shelton was at first. All in all, the Rainers were 5-hit by a collection of Salt Lake City relief pitchers (the starter was scratched). Other than Mike Morse and Prentice Redman (who hit a home run) there wasn’t much evidence of plate discipline on the Rainiers. Gabby Hernandez gave up two home runs in the first inning, and things went south from there (10-1 final score).