Optimizing The End Of The Roster
As we saw yesterday, there’s a downside to carrying a 12th pitcher in lieu of a 14th position player – not having a fifth spot on the bench means that you can find yourself in some bad spots if a couple of position players are dinged up at the same time. The M’s were lucky that they got a great performance out of Felix and the bullpen on a day when they put a line-up on the field that couldn’t score at a brothel.
Seriously, against a right-handed pitcher in a park that is death to right-handed batters, the Mariners ran out a line-up that went L-L-R-R-R-R-R-R-R, and one of the Ls was Endy Chavez. It wouldn’t have mattered if it was James Shields, James Baldwin, or James the VI – the Mariners weren’t going to put up much offense yesterday.
As we mentioned coming out of spring training, the team is too right-handed. Of the 13 position players they’re carrying, nine of them are right-handed bats. They team is currently incapable of playing a LH bat at catcher, second base, shortstop, or third base on any given day. If any of the four LH bats need a day off, for any reason, the team has to replace them with a right-handed hitter. So, frequently, you’re going to see line-ups with just two or three LH bats in the line-up against an RHP, and that’s a pretty big problem.
For instance, this weekend the Mariners will be facing Shane Loux, Anthony Ortega, and Jered Weaver. Here are the career platoon splits for those three.
Loux: .642 OPS vs RH, 1.004 OPS vs LH
Ortega: No Major League Experience
Weaver: .661 OPS vs RH, .767 OPS vs LH
Loux’s sinker is a nice weapon against righties, as we saw last week, but he’s got nothing against lefties. He’s basically Sean Green out there, throwing his sinker and getting torched by opposite handed hitters. They don’t even have to be good – a crappy left-handed bat can look like a star against pitchers like Loux. Ortega is basically the same thing, just with less of a sinker. And Weaver’s stuff plays up much better against righties than lefties.
If the M’s had a LH bat off the bench, they could add a legitimate offensive weapon this weekend, even if that guy wasn’t a great hitter, simply due to the matchups. The right-handedness of the team’s position players is a handicap that is really going to hurt them in series like this.
This team needs a fifth bench player a lot more than they need a 12th pitcher. Shawn Kelley didn’t even pitch in the Tampa Bay series. Miguel Batista is getting used every four days or so. The Mariners run prevention has been excellent, and the team is getting innings from the rotation.
I know Jeff Clement had a bad spring and isn’t tearing the cover off the ball in Tacoma, but he’d be a pretty useful guy to have around right now. Or, just go sign Geoff Jenkins or trade for Adam Kennedy or something. The team needs a left-handed reserve. They can’t keep running out these overly RH line-ups and giving teams easy matchups to shut them down.
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Would that be James VI of Scotland and James I of England and Ireland? I think he was a lefty.
Pulling this one out of my hat:
What about a guy like Frank Catalanotto? He can play everywhere on anyday. I’m sure he would be even more affordable than Jenkins right?
Colm,
Yeah, I think he was, but he never had a great platoon advantage over lefties. Too many counterblastes.
He wasn’t bad enough that he totally lost the plot or anything – more like he survived the plot(s).
I’m starting to get really angry about the whole Clement situation. Rob Johnson is starting at catcher, Jamie Burke (?!?!) is starting at first, the team is dying for a lefty bat and Miguel Batista sucks. Why the hell does Jeff Clement have no role to play in all this?
Dump Batista, call up Clement and let’s win this thing.
Speaking of the catcher situation, broke my ears listening to Elise on KJR last night. All this talk about Rob Johnson’s talent for managing games, having the lowest cERA in the league, and batting well at .270 caused a minor mouth-puke.
Free Clement.
Good points, Dave. What are your thoughts on the chances of the M’s either brining up Clement or picking up a lefty bat off the scrap heap?
As the previous post points out, winning an extra game or two against the Anaheims now could be absolutely huge come September. The M’s are getting good depth from their starters and Wak doesn’t have Mac’s tendency to burn relievers with one or two batter stints (possibly because the dearth of Lefties extends to the pen as well so playing matchups is not an option, but still).
3 is the fewest batters any M’s reliever has faced before being pulled, and that’s only happened three times. Two of those were 1-2-3 innings by Aardsma, and one was a meltdown by Batista where he couldn’t get anyone out.
It’s really sub-optimal to keep a 12 man staff. Free Jeff Clement!
They say that most teams start the year with the 12-man staffs beacuse the starters aren’t strectched out yet, blah, blah, blah…
The starters are looking great…along with the pen…
There is absolutely NO reason to have [IT'S BATISTA STOP IT STOP IT STOP IT], except the fact he is getting paid so much…
His ass needs to be gone today and they need to bring up Clement…
It’s really simple…
Do you really think Clement will magically start hitting just because he has been promoted to the majors? Haven’t seen his splits in Tacoma, but is he doing that much better against lefties there than righties?
Not having Clement as an option is baffling and yesterday’s lineup hopefully reinforces that.
There is no “magic” in Clement…the fact that he isn’t on the big squad, especially with these injuries, just doesn’t make sense…
While I won’t deny the importance of LH bats in a lineup, it can be (and often is) overdone. Generally speaking, the league average split for OBP is around 7%. The more same-handed hitters you add to a lineup, the closer you approach this mark.
Of course, some players are better than others at hitting same-handed pitching, and the Mariners have some pretty good examples in Lopez, Beltre, and Betancourt (yeah, I know).
Despite the huge number of RH bats, Thursday’s OBP split was around 4.0%, statistically speaking. And if you consider Shield’s unusually insignificant split of 1.4%, it doesn’t start to look so bad. Certainly it would be hard to make up the difference with minor-league bats.
I’m not defending use of a lineup that involves Burke at first base, but I have to think that these numbers influenced the Mariners at least somewhat.
Johnson hitting .270 isn’t that bad considering half the lineup is hitting right around .200. Johnson has done a solid job since Joh has gone down but the M’s really need some more lefty power. They should give Clement one more chance to sink or swim, I have no clue why Burke is up, he’s not exactly very useful beyond being a gritty veteran 3rd catcher.
Stop using batting average to evaluate offense.
I am just shocked that Burke doesn’t have a hit yet and hasn’t been getting robbed at all either. Kinda uncharacteristic compared to the last two years. I’m curious if Clements performance down in AAA is affecting a call up at this point…
I am just shocked that Burke doesn’t have a hit yet and hasn’t been getting robbed at all either.
You shouldn’t be – I love Burke and all be he’s really not a very good hitter. He’ll have streaks where a bunch of single drop, and he’ll have streaks where they all turn into weak outs. This is one of the latter.
Jeff Clement is a better option against lefties than Jamie Burke… and I like Jamie Burke. Clement takes pitches, and that skill doesn’t go away even when the hits do. His bat has been cold so far in Tacoma, but he is a new daddy now so….perhaps the wood is back in the bat?
And what about Carp? He’d have to be added to the 40 man but he’s a LHB with a minor league .973 OPS. Bonus: he already knows how to play first base. Free Mike Carp!
There has to be a reason Clement is not up with the big boys– as much as we all say that it doesn’t make any sense. Is it something with the pitchers? Something about his attitude? Got asked to work on some things and he just blew it off?
The fact that it doesn’t make sense to us looking in from the outside means there has to be a deeper reason there somewhere. I’m willing to give the new management the benefit of the doubt and believe Clement isn’t the answer we’re looking for…
But, then who is? We need someone on the bench, preferrably from the left side of the plate. Wak? Mr.Z? A little help?
(And Johnson needs to work more on using his glove to catch the ball…)
Clement’s attitude is one of the best in the organization. His work ethic is second to none. There’s no off-the-field issues with him.
Clement’s struggles in AAA seem partly due to a BABIP of .207. That won’t stay down there for long, and his BB/K rate is at a pretty decent .6, so I’m not sure there’s much to worry about. Get him up here. Carp might be a pretty decent choice, too, as his BABIP of .317 seems sustainable…he’s pretty much just pounding it down there.
Hey, I have an idea – let’s not react to ~50 Triple-A plate appearances.
Jeff Clement is fine. Mike Carp could use more time in Tacoma.
Sorry, Dave. *kicks at the dirt*
Jeff Clement Missing Poster
Let’s hope this ends better than last time.
That Adam Kennedy idea should be looked at a little harder. They need another player on the bench that can play the middle infield. I can’t think the last time the M’s had a bench with only one reserve middle infielder. With Cedeno with a tweaked hamstring, whats going to happen if Jose or Yuni get hurt or thrown out of a game?
Put Burke at short?
Nah, Griffey will take his clubhouse presence to the middle infield. He’s Griffey, he can do anything!
Sports on a Schtick:
That is classic. Thanks for the picture, I’m going to use it as my wallpaper on my laptop. Awesome!
Good question. I imagine they move Beltre to SS and put Burke or Branyan at 3B.
Maybe Branyan will be in the lineup tonight. It’s frustrating that he is still nursing that back. Seems like the last 2 or 3 games it has been “yeah, it still feels a little off but I should be playing tomorrow.”
Just can’t see promoting a guy who failed at the plate last year, has impressed no one significant with his catching yet, and then showed no signs of improvement in Spring training or AAA yet. Shouldn’t they actually show progress on what you sent them down for before you bring them back?
I predict at least one of the sore backs will find a miracle cure before game time.
You know, that Adam Jones poster reminded me that back when this blog was awash with “Free Adam Jones!” (and again during the lead-up to the Bedard trade) we had a fair number of posts from people amounting to “He’s had his shot in the bigs and he hasn’t shown anything. He’s not the answer and never will be. Minor league numbers are meaningless. He can’t hit.”
A couple of bad throws from the outfield (and a recently tweaked hamstring) aside, I think the Orioles will happily disagree.
Shouldn’t they actually show progress on what you sent them down for before you bring them back?
The point of having a baseball team is to win baseball games. This isn’t child raising. We’re not trying to teach Jeff Clement a lesson.
It’s amazing to me how many people are willing to give up on a player after a couple hundred at-bats. It makes no sense.
Sorry for going off topic but [deleted, off-topic]
I was really excited to watch Jeff Clement catch tonight but then I realized I’d be going to the game in Anaheim and not the one in Tacoma.
This isn’t child raising.
No matter what you are trying to teach anyone, including hitters, you want them to have a measure of success before giving them a bigger challenge. This isn’t punishment. It’s development in his skillset. Many posts have pointed out he is still considered subpar in catching. He should progress, develop muscle memory and then be ready mentally and physically for the next challenge. He just hasn’t shown that.
If they could get Clement up here and get his bat going it would address our biggest weakness, and it would cost nothing. I know that’s stating the obvious, but there’s no reason we shouldn’t at least give it a shot. Like you said Dave, Batista does not need to be on the roster. Or Jamie Burke for that matter, unless they think Clement’s defense is so incredibly repulsive and awful.
You do realize that Clement has had “a measure of success” in Triple-A already, right?
There’s two ways of looking at baseball players.
The smart way is to evaluate their current abilities based on all the information available and put the best players on the field.
The dumb way is decide that playing time is earned as a reward for previous success or failures, and that you will let players decide who plays based on how they performed in the recent past.
Your line of thinking got us Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, and Raul Ibanez in left field. Remember, Adam Jones hadn’t proven he could play in the majors either.
Let’s move beyond this third grade level of decision making already.
No matter what you are trying to teach anyone, including hitters, you want them to have a measure of success before giving them a bigger challenge.
If that’s the case, why is Rob Johnson in the majors? Clement outhit him in 2007 and 2008, and BOTH of them are pretty subpar defensive catchers (outside of the “the pitchers like to throw to him” factor that gets cited for Johnson).
Just can’t see promoting a guy who failed at the plate last year
He obliterated Tacoma and then posted a terrible season that was still much better than what Rob Johnson’s done so far this year.
So isn’t this a argument that Clement should be our catcher vs righties more than a bench optimization post? My thinking is Griffey is going to be the DH, so where does Clement fit in? Catcher? If you are going to use him as a catcher, Burke or Johnson aren’t needed. If you are going to replace Clement with one of the catchers on the roster you’ll still have 12 pitchers. Am I thinking about this wrong?
None of this is about earning. It’s about demonstrating you are prepared and there is some reasonable expectation of success at challenge ahead. Clement demonstrated that earlier and regressed over a long period of time, including Spring. The job was his. They wanted him to take it. He performed so poorly, he lost it. Yet, the potential is seen, so, not for punishment, but for development, they send him to Tacoma to play everyday. He isn’t there so Johnson can take his spot. He is there because he has more potential.
The mental side is just as important. He can more easily fail in Tacoma and not take the hit more publicly here.
I really think the reason Clement is still in AAA is because the Ms have given up on him and they want him down there to raise his trade value….
Spring training stats don’t matter, two weeks of AAA doesn’t matter.
Clement’s actual ability isn’t in question, and at the end of the day ability is all that matters.
None of this is about earning.
He performed so poorly, he lost it.
How do you type those two sentences and not see the massive contradiction?
Your entire premise is that playing time has to be earned through recent performance. That premise is beyond stupid.
If ownership wouldn’t have signed Kenji to an extension this wouldn’t be an issue. I like what Burke hasbu done in the past but having Clement down in AAA doesn’t seem to help his trade value any. He has already proved he can hit down there.
None of this is about earning. It’s about demonstrating you are prepared and there is some reasonable expectation of success at challenge ahead.
There is no reasonable way you can evaluate Rob Johnson as having more of a “reasonable expectation of success” than Jeff Clement, unless you completely ignore their offensive production throughout their minor league careers, and place what is likely an absurdly high value on the “I like to throw to this guy” factor. It’s just not even close.
Where do they play Clement when they bring him up? DH over Griffey? Catcher (where he’s clearly sub par defensively) or have him ride the bench waiting for a PH opportunity to come up, costing him playing time he could be getting at AAA?
This is in line with my opinion. I see him traded sooner rather than later, and they don’t want to put “CleMendoza” on the back of his jersey right before they shop him.
I’d love to see him play. I just fear they’ve give up on him. Does any other reason make sense for how he’s been handled?
Why not first base? That’s where the injuries are.
I’m not ready to write the management off on this one. It’s still plausible that they know what they’re doing – in which case, the fact that they haven’t brought Clement up indicates two things: 1) he is unreasonably bad at catcher (bad enough that his defense wipes out his offensive advantage over Rob Johnson), and 2) they think he can get better, and so want him to get reps at the position. Dave disagreed with this second one in the preseason, arguing that Clement should be kept on the club or traded, but, with all due respect to Dave, I have more faith in Z as a talent evaluator.
I actually agree with rlb (in theory) and Dave (mostly). If you want to run a successful business, then it seems like you do need some measure of accountability. Snarkily comparing that to the treatment of a third grader seems obtuse.
However, as bad as Clement was last year, Graham points out above that his numbers were still better than what Johnson’s put up so far. Clement seems to be the better talent, and, on a team that needs a lefty bat, calling him up is a no-brainer. Dave’s only saying that Clement’s limited sample size needs to be expanded, and that even if we’re basing this entire argument on production, Clement is still on top.
Did any of you guys even read the post? This isn’t a Clement vs Johnson post. This isn’t an argument to make Clement the everyday catcher.
The Mariners have a specific and glaring need for a left-handed hitter on the roster. They also have a pitching staff that has more arms than necessary. Therefore, it would make sense to swap out one of the relievers to make room for a LH bat.
The LH bat could be Clement, if you’re okay with him playing three times a week (I am). It could be Geoff Jenkins or Frank Catalanatto or Adam Kennedy or your pick of numerous easily obtainable veteran left-handers who you could use in a reserve role.
The entire point of the post is that the team needs another left-handed hitter. Unless you can come up with a reason why Miguel Batista or Roy Corcoran or Sean White are providing more value to the team, then there’s no argument here.
… because the Ms have given up on him and they want him down there to raise his trade value…
That is also where I am at- GMZ has basically decided that Clement has no future in this organization, and would rather showcase him in Tacoma than have a really subpar defensive C in MLB, even if his bat more than makes up for the difference between him and Johnson.
I must say that it’s pretty annoying that three picks in the top half of the MLB draft from 2005-2007 have basically netted us a relief pitcher who replaced a SIXTH round draft choice (JJ).
Your entire premise is that playing time has to be earned through recent performance.
No, it’s not about earning, it’s about demonstrating rational hope. Schools today promote 3rd graders, as you evaluated my reasoning skills, to 4th grade, despite failure in 3rd. Some success in 3rd grade shows hope in success in 4th grade, or even reasonable expectation. You have a guy failing in AAA.
Promoting him to the majors and hoping he turns it on, for a team we are all pleasantly surprised that is winning important April games not only risks harming the team, but more importantly harming the development of a bat that needs to swing everyday, and a glove that needs to catch everyday.
I have seen many people promoted too soon in many endeavors and wash out of what could have been promising careers.
I am interested to know why you say Mike Carp needs more time in Tacoma but Clement is fine. What is the rationale for that. He looks ready and is in a position of need.
I still say there’s something more to it than what we know. Wak was a catcher, Wak says he likes the way Johnson calls a game… Perhaps if the organization decided that none of our catchers are going to the all-star game anytime soon, nor winning any gold gloves, or winning any batting titles, they deferred to whomever Wak (and the pitching staff) wants calling games behind the plate?
Purely speculation, yes, but there HAS to be a reason, other than “it makes no sense at all.”
And perhaps it’s good managing to seperate the two issues of a) who’s calling pitches for the 2nd best pitching staff in the American League (currently), and b) who’s going to fill our need for a left handed bat? (Not saying it is, just considering the possibility?!)
Dude, Clement has lit up AAA sans the last two weeks. Last year he slugged something like .700 in 50 games. He can hit AAA pitching.
You have a guy failing in AAA.
Until you get past this, I can’t help you. You really need to stop evaluating players based on recent performance and look at the big picture.
Oh! Oh! Oh!. I read it! I read it!
Because while the idea that “playing time has to be earned through recent performance” is foolish, the converse is not.
Recent performance can only be earned through playing time, and Batista ain’t getting enough playing time to deliver any useful performance, so let’s use his roster spot for someone who might get more playing time.
I would rather see Batista go… they did with sexson last year to eat salary but this year they shouldnt wait this long.
<blockquote>… because the Ms have given up on him and they want him down there to raise his trade value…
That is also where I am at- GMZ has basically decided that Clement has no future in this organization, and would rather showcase him in Tacoma than have a really subpar defensive C in MLB, even if his bat more than makes up for the difference between him and Johnson.
Splendid! Glad to know that you’re right inside Z’s head, on top of exactly what he’s thinking.
You mind readers crack me up.
I’m also not fully understanding the many arguments that Clement is at AAA to build his trade value? The only minor league players I’m aware of that are building their trade values are guys jumping from A or Rookie ball to AAA or AA in fewer years than expected. I think teams/scouts/managements are saavy enough to not get fooled into over rating a guy isn’t able to stick at the major league level on his current team.
Not saying he doesn’t have value, just not sure sending him to AAA jumps his value any (if anything, the fact that he isn’t performing well at AAA is harming his trade value).
Clement
Carp
What Dave has been trying to tell you (I just read the previous messages) is contained in the above two links.
Here’s one real obvious point: one of those guys has over 1000 ABs at AAA, and has been hitting well at that level and probably will learn nothing more about hitting in the minors. The other guy had his first good season at AA last year.
Hmmm, most of that should have been nested in the blockquote tag…up until my “Splendid!..”
Where did that Edit button go?
Heya Red Apple (or anyone)…
How exactly does the “block quote” work… I’m guessing you cut and paste the quote, highlight it, and then hit the “bquote” button?
(Didn’t want to waste post space by experimenting)
(But evidently I’m okay using post space to ask technical questions– sorry all.)
Thats it up and downs
Clement should have been called up before Burke was in my opinion based on the huge need for another lefty bat.
He has nothing left to prove at AAA, he has already shown he can mash down there. Right now would be a perfect time to allow him to split time with Johnson at catcher while Kenji is out and/or get some time at DH if Griffey is hurt or have Clement DH against lefties when Griffey sits.
The lack of left-handed bats on this team was one of the most glaring frustrations I had with Bavasi. Hopefully Jack Z can help correct this issue soon.
At this point I’m resigned to following Clement’s successful, 25 HR/.800+ OPS per year MLB career from afar, just as I do with Adam Jones.
But really, as others have been trying to point out, Clement is just a sideshow here. There are two issues Dave has identified:
Coming out of Spring Training the team was built to be bullpen-rich and bench-poor. That was defensible up to a point, but that point has passed. Even if all those aching backs are fine today, they could get wrenched again tomorrow. The team needs to trade off one bullpen arm for another glove on the bench.
Separate from that. the lineup is also way too right-handed. The team needs at least one another LH bat in the lineup, preferably more. One way to do that would be to swap Clement in for Burke, but that doesn’t address the first issue.
So regardless of what is, or is not, done with Clement, the team needs to find another utility player, or even a fifth outfielder, with a left-handed bat. If they also promote Clement they get another LH bat as a bonus, which is why it makes sense, but that’s not the central point of Dave’s post.
(BTW, Sorry for bringing up Carp — it was mostly so I could link to that picture)
Dammit – I was drinking my coffee when I read that! Now I have to change.