Time To Panic
Dave · May 14, 2009 at 11:40 am · Filed Under Mariners
Felix is 88-92 with his fastball, his curve is flat as anything, and he’s throwing a ton of junk early in the game. There’s no way he’s healthy.
Okay, so, pretty much everyone who pitched in this game had lower velocity readings than usual, so we’ll assume that something was wrong with the Pitch F/x data.
Also, ugh.
No, I didn’t hear that. He is just warming up is all.
Well damn.
Good thing Washburn’s been pitching like an ace this year, then.
He’s touched 93 to Andrus, Young, and now Hamilton, by the way.
I don’t think the guns are accurate right now. Harrison just threw a fastball that looked 89-90, and was shocked that it read only 84. We’ve all watched enough baseball to have at least an ok mph gauge.
I’m not worried…
Yet.
Pitch F/x is not a radar gun.
Yeah, Pitch F/X isn’t a radar gun, but I seem to remember Jeff or someone on LL saying that Pitch F/X machines aren’t always calibrated correctly, I don’t remember what the game was, but I think they had an example.
Hopefully I’m not just in denial.
About 20% into the season, and Erik Bedard is the staff iron man. Amazing.
Also, Felix’s average fastball is only 93.8 this year, down from 94.6 last year and 95.6 the year before…could the 93 this year just be from the cold weather, or…?
I hate to hear this, but he seems to be doing well so far. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
About 20% into the season, and Erik Bedard is the staff iron man. Amazing.
Seeing that Bedard is likely to miss his next start with a tight hamstring, I’d say Washburn is the iron man?
Apparently you haven’t read the news regarding Bedard. Our staff iron man is now The Bus…
Did I just say that??!
And what the heck did we do to deserve this?
Apparently Harrison’s average FB is down a few ticks according to this Pitch F/X machine too…
He’s getting results, but something looks wrong.
His delivery is very similar to mine was, and he has a “fling” or something like that in his follow through that I picked up when my shoulder was wrong.
He looks better now than earlier (earlier I would have said “horrifically wrong” instead of just wrong), but something is definitely still not right.
Is Felix mixing his pitches more than usual today? He usually pumps fastballs at the beginning of the game but this time he’s mixed in some pitches right out of the gate.
His fastball is getting closer to where it’s been for the year as the game goes on. Wonder if his lack of “omph” earlier was due to not “establishing the fastball”?
Maybe it’s possible his mechanics were just messed up earlier?
I’d agree with cdowley that it didn’t look like he was following through earlier, specifically with how he moved his right arm right after he threw each pitch, but now I think his delivery looks pretty much like it always has. Maybe he just lost his delivery the first few innings?
glad to hear that this sounds like an over reaction, even if the pitch F/x is 100% accurate perhaps Felix is just a little sore, or he doesn’t like pitching in the morning or he is trying to ease up a bit on the fastball to help him locate it. There are a lot of answers that don’t necessarily mean there is anything to be concerned about.
Well even if his velocity is a little down he sure has been effective!
Well, he hit 94 this inning…reason for optimism?
Could it be that Felix is finally getting it in that he’s less focused on blowing it by batters and racking up K’s and instead trying to pace himself for the long run as well as being economical and lasting longer in games?
Just a thought. (Maybe not a great one, but oh well.)
As much as I’d like to agree, I can’t due to the aforementioned mechanical issues we’re seeing (which is still there, hasn’t gotten worse since my last comment, but it hasn’t gotten better)
It looks like Felix’s velocity is up. Yay.
95.1 MPH now
cdowley–
After about the 2nd inning, it looked to me as though his throwing motion was the same as it had ever been. I agree early on he looked weird…but what did you see that was so messed up later on?
“There are a lot of answers that don’t necessarily mean there is anything to be concerned about.” Butwheredoesthemeatgo got it right.
He hasn’t been beaten around by a pretty good lineup so that’s positive, so let’s try to be positive!
Harrison’s average FB: 87.4 MPH.
Felix’s average FB: 91.3 MPH
On the season–
Felix: 93.8 MPH
Harrison: 91.2 MPH
Looks like Texas’ Pitch F/X is just off.
Aardsma’s first three pitches: 90, 92, 92
He’s still got a flinch in the end of his follow-through that he normally doesn’t have. Could be nothing, but as I said, I picked up about the same thing when I started developing shoulder problems (wound up pitching twelve innings over two games on a torn rotator cuff…).
Is this a good time to point out that Morrow has been a mechanical mess since he came off the DL? Crap…
I’m too lazy to look–did Morrow have these kind of control problems in college?
So is anyone else tired of Brandon Morrow getting to have extended spring training while being on the 25 man roster and throwing the 9th inning of close games?
Because I know I sure am…
OK…that hurts.
Anyone else think the Rangers are sitting on, and waiting for the fastball? Got the timing all figured out, with no worry of an off-speed pitch in the strike zone.
John 11:35
Exquisite. Pain. Delivery. System.
Morrow’s tipping his pitches. He almost has to be… all three of the jacks he’s given up the last two days, the batters have been dead sitting on that pitch, and it’s like they knew where it was supposed to be, too.
Or, you know, they could just know he’s going to throw a fastball because that’s what Brandon Morrow does.
Yeah, here is the “tip” he only throws one pitch. EVER.
He actually throws two pitches: a fastball low for a ball and a fastball up for a homerun.
I am definitely not worried about Felix right now, especially after that 7 inning gem! More worried about Morrow pitching horribly and ballooning his ERA to over 9.00!!!!
Time to panic all right. Today sucked deviled eggs. The next three games?
Lester vs. Jakubauskas
Beckett vs. Olson
Masterson vs. Vargas
Season over. I wonder if Wak is going to bullshit us about Morrow again.
No need to tip pitches when you throw the same one 91% of the time.
Morrow’s only got a couple of pitches, and one of them is “way outside of the zone.” The other one is a fastball, and the Rangers are good fastball hitters. That a lefty fastball hitter like Blalock can nail him twice in two days does not require him to be tipping his pitches. At all.
cdowley –
He’s not tipping his pitches. He isn’t hitting his spots — not even close. He’s missing the glove by a foot every time.
It’s the fact that they’re sitting on a spot that’s worrying me. It’s one thing to guess fastball, but it’s a whole ‘nother to know where it’s going. Blalock’s bomb today just looked like he was looking high, but both his last night and Davis’ today, they both started lower swings for their belt-high taters before the ball was clearly lower.
I could be wrong, and I rather hope I am, but it’s still concerning…
Also, could it be that there was nothing wrong with the F/X data at all? This game started at breakfast time for these guys.
Dude, cdowley…
If they’re “sitting on a spot” Morrow is accidentally hitting it. Seriously, he isn’t close to hitting his spots.
By your theory, they are guessing a spot and the ball just happens to magically appear there.
We need to find a way to get Bill Haselman off the bleedin’ radio. He’s an almost flawless fount of misinformation. Almost everything I’ve heard him say in the last 15 minutes is wrong.
They have the excellent Shannon Dreyer available for informed insight and analysis – and instead we’re listening to ignorant nonsense and conventional-wisdom-pablum from another washed-up journeyman.
Morrow mixes his pitches. Sometimes he throws a four seam-fastball, sometimes he throws a four-seam wild pitch.
Really, this whole “be a closer” so he can focus on his fb is a stupid idea. He has to develop secondary pitches.
Really, this whole “be a closer†so he can focus on his fb is a stupid idea. He has to develop secondary pitches.
Oh, come on, it’s not like JJ went from being nondescript bullpen fodder with good heat and poor command to awesome once his splitter was a legitimate out p-oh, wait.
cdowley–
I think it’s more that Morrow pretty much only throws a fastball. He doesn’t have to tip it for them to know it’s coming 90% of the time.
Regarding Felix and the MPH and/or flat break issue, the wind blowing today (all series, actually) should be taken into account. Wind is hell on breaking balls (not to mention armspeed, velocity and control). A strong sideways wind can make even the best breakingball hover above home plate until it gets whacked. But knuckleballs, man. With the right wind you can become downright Wakefieldian.
Postgame show, Drayer is saying Felix was throwing two-seamers instead of four-seamers as part of a gameplan, so that might explain some of the velocity issues.
I assume mentioning Lincecum is still a banning offense.
Look, what exactly have the M’s done with this kid over the last 3 weeks? Well, they put him on the DL, seemingly over his objections. Then, after activating him last weekend, they put him in to close out a game on Sunday to (they hoped) end long losing streak. What happened? He couldn’t find the strike zone, walked the bases loaded, and almost single-handedly gave the game away. So what have the coaches done since that horrible outing to get him ready to do his job? Apparently, not much. He looked predictably horrible in back-to-back outings that the M’s desperately needed to win. So why keep running him out there if they know he has nothing but a fastball that he can’t locate? And, I’ll ask again, what exactly are the M’s coaches doing to turn Morrow into a capable pitcher? My opinion is that the coaching staff doesn’t know what they are doing with him. Wak is about a week away from being viewed as a goofball.
Great quotes from Felix today. He basically said “Today I was a pitcher, not a thrower. It was the game plan from the beginning to stick primarily with off speed pitches and the 2 seem fastball”. He didn’t want to give them his good 4 seem fastball which he felt they could hit out all day long (as they’ve done so on it throughout his short career). Instead he was sticking with his 2 seamer and off speed pitches and not try to overthrow it. They’re expecting a better fastball from him and taking a little off and using the 2 seamer seemed to work well.
Frankly, I’m happy with this. If Felix eventually actually learns that he’s better when he pitches instead of throws, that’s great. He’s got the secondary pitches to combine with that fastball to be one of the greats and it’s just going to make his fastball that much better if he actually starts using those secondary pitches consistently instead of before where he was 70-80% fastballs.
If nothing else, glad it appears he’s really not injured. *whew*
Yes, there’s a log of ignorant pontificating about how he “lacks a closer’s mindset”.
Balls.
He lacks control over his fastball, and he lacks a reliable secondary pitch.
Both Morrow and Betancourt appear to lack appropriate development. I don’t know to what extent their weaknesses can be coached out of them, but the lack of minor league time seems to be telling. Throw in the Clement conundrum and Aumont’s move to the bullpen and the player development ledger doesn’t look too good. The upcoming draft is critical, but what happens after that needs to change as well.
Morrow’s changeup didn’t seem to have much movement on it today.
It seems like one of the things Z mentioned last winter was the need for a clearer organizational philosophy throughout, including minors, so that should be on its way.
Screw weeks. What the hell have they done with him over the last three years?
I’d say a whole lotta notta concerning developing him.
2008: Mariners are a team that doesn’t take a lot of pitches and pitchers who throw a lot of pitches.
2009: Mariners are a team that can only hit fastballs and pitchers who only throw fastballs.
Clearly, the Mariners’ biggest problem is that they can’t play against themselves.
The M’s are done. The season is over. The only difference this year is that it took seven weeks, and last year it took two weeks. They will not see 500 the rest of this season.
@sass: ya it’s great to have JZ in there now. I can’t wait to see the M’s after he gets a few years molding the team and organization.
He’s already doing great things in the minors establishing a philosophy of patience at the plate and defense above anything else in non-pitchers. They even told Clement and Moore that if they didn’t start working on their defense they would no longer be allowed to hit until their defense came around (which may explain some of Clement’s recent hitting struggles
.
Better than that all the way down to single A and including their latin based development programs outside of the minors they are stressing pitch recognition and working the count. You don’t do that and you won’t move up in the M’s organization anymore. We won’t see the dividends from this for several years, but eventually it’s really going to help out the M’s.
That’s some positive and forward thinking!
“Tipping” isn’t going to give you that precise a location, especially when the pitcher himself has no idea where it is going.
When this is all the movement you’re getting on your pitches, you either have to have the control to keep them in the strike zone but out of the batter’s wheelhouse, or you have to be able to (deceptively) vary your speed. Morrow wasn’t doing either.
I almost jumped on this until I realized you must be kidding. Though I guess by Morrow’s standards he did throw one changeup towards the end of the inning.
Yeah, this is why I stopped listening to the post-game show. For a while it was kind of amusing to play “Drayer Roulette” — turn on the radio, wait through the endless Schick-Shadel and TILA Mortgage ads, see if her voice appeared; if it didn’t, turn off the radio and wait a few minutes to spin the wheel again — but that got old quick. Now I prefer to just read her blog and wade through other sources like Baker to get quotes from Wakamatsu, etc.
It might actually be best if the M’s are indeed done sooner rather than later. With Washburn pitching extremely well right now and Bedard more or less healthy (hamstring right now but no biggy) and throwing well both of those guys would make great trade bait right now but maybe two or three months from now not so much if Bedard gets injured and Washburn goes back to being Washburn. Heck, even Batista’s doing well out of the pen thus far and if the M’s would eat his contract, they might actually get something for him in a trade. In all three cases, later in the season possibly not so much.
In happier news, membership in Brandon Morrow’s Facebook fan club, Insanity at 60 Feet, 6 Inches, is growing exponentially, as we speak.
Passive aggressive and manic depressive,
that’s the mien of the Mariners fan.
Wild elation to crushed devastation
that’s the mode of the Mariners fan.
From rabid anticipation to idle rosterbation,
that’s the Spring for a Mariners fan.
Note: this is a drinking song. Swallowing one straight shot with each syllable is recommended. Repeat as necessary, pausing only for the draft, the Allstar game, and the trade deadline.
Mr. Morrow’s fans in Texas are legion and those in Boston and Anaheim are desirous of the opportunity to have reason to join soon.
Well on the bright side, it would be nice if they could stay competitive, but if it has to disintegrate early, then the fire sale happens and we get stocked up with upside guys for next year. It will be interesting to see if they can get together a squad for 2010 that can compete, or if it is more of a 2011/2012 situation.
See Drayer’s blog as to why Felix was throwing slower.
So, great news with Felix (at least it feels like it’s better news). And I’m not sure I like what Johnson said about the Morrow situation. Given his thinking – and Morrow’s limitations, I think he’d better be on the first bus to Tacoma ASAP to develop his secondary pitches.
That, and I’m not sure Johnson remembered who his opposition was today.
@joser. Well played.
Finally! Morrow seems to have realized he needs to throw more than just a fastball: “I need to start mixing pitches,” he said. “I’m like a pitching machine out there.” Yes Brandon… yes you are.
This is a 180 from what he was saying at the beginning of the season (and what he’s been doing up to this point). It took two back to back blown saves, but it looks like he’s realizing that he actually has to pitch out there, not just throw.
In fairness though that was a tough way to try to work back from extended time off (first 2 of 3 back against Texas in Texas in close ballgames) and of course only throwing 12 or so innings the whole season including spring training thus far. But still, he needed to get it out of his head that he can just throw 95% fastballs and be successful. It appears he’s learned his lesson.
Though from quotes from Rob Johnson today, it appears Rob Johnson hasn’t realized this fact for some reason. Either that or he was just doing a poor job of trying to cover for his closer. His quotes were all about how Morrows fastball was having great movement and seemed to be fooling the Texas hitters…
[metacommentary]
still waiting for the piece this week about why to or why not to trade felix and/or ichiro.
Felix, no. Ichiro, sure.
Jon, 2:11 p.m.
You nailed my thoughts, precisely.
We can analyze secondary pitches, etc., and they’re all good points. However, Morrow has been very shaky all season, and yet: Wak and staff seemingly have done nothing to correct the flaws and insist on using the guy in the closer role.
We can talk about the struggling offense, bad at-bats, etc., but the team was in position to win these last two games and ka-blooey!
Ichiro is hitting a paltry .306, can his ass! hahaha
Remember if Morrow doesn’t blow these two games, they are 18-17 and it’s a whole different ballgame. But alas the M’s are now 16-19. ugh
ESPN is saying that Felix threw slower on purpose as the Mariners want him to focus on his two seam fastball more. Anybody know if there’s any truth to that?
KaminaAyato typed:
and the link
http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=373
Well, if nothing else, it sounds like Morrow hopefully learned from the experience.
Per Stone:
I seem to remember this blog mentioned it wanted Felix to rely less on his fastball and mix it up more to get hitters out. So when he starts doing that it’s one indication he’s injured?
I think the results spoke for themselves today. Morrow has proven 95 mph means nothing.
It does if the hitter has something else to worry about. That’s his problem.
Probably your point, but I don’t mind repeating it.
He is a pitching machine out there, for sure.
“I feel like a pitching machine out there.â€
Don’t pitching machines actually deliver pitches to the same location, pitch after pitch? That doesn’t usually describe Brandon Morrow’s fastball.
He’s a pitching machine with Location set to “Shuffle”
It depends on the sophistication of the pitching machine, I suppose, but I’ve certainly taken batting practice where the machine had a fair amount of variability in pitch location that wasn’t necessarily intended.
Oh yeah. I’ve been pegged by pitching machines more times than I can count.
you sure you werent just trying to toughen up?
Actually, in Derek’s case, the machine was intentionally throwing at him because he suggested it should be replaced with a human.
Oh yeah. I’ve been pegged by pitching machines more times than I can count.
Well if you’d quit crowding the plate so much they might not get so angry as to throw at you.
When the author of “The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball” is at the plate, who wouldn’t be brushing him back, machines included?
If it makes anyone feel better here, Ibanez absolutely butchered a ball in leftfield late in the game yesterday, helping the Dodgers win. It looked like a page from the “How to Turn a Single into a Triple” handbook.
You know, it’s just one game, and what players say to reporters after a game often has little bearing on reality (either in terms of accurately capturing what happened, or in terms of anything going forward), but it’s possible we’ll look back at this otherwise-benighted game as a significant step in the development of Felix Hernandez. We were all freaked out by what the Pitch FX data was telling us, because we were interpreting it in terms of the Felix we’ve grown to know so far. But he was doing something new, and it fooled us, and it fooled the Rangers too. He was facing a lineup that was good at hitting fastballs, even very fast fastballs (just ask Morrow), so he didn’t try to just throw harder. Per Drayer
We’ve been waiting (and some have been complaining about the wait) for Felix to take the next step. Could this be it? Perhaps something has clicked. Perhaps Rick Adair has said something that finally made sense to him, perhaps Felix himself has finally figured something out, perhaps he’s just grown up a little and isn’t so infatuated with raw velocity. Who knows. It was just one game. But it’s going to be interesting to watch. And in these otherwise-bleak times, having Felix finally grow into the pitcher we always knew he had the stuff to be sure would make it easier to get through the rest of the season (well, every five days, anyway). Now I’m really looking forward to the next Felix Day.