Let The Sell Off Begin
When the Mariners decided to recall Guillermo Quiroz from Double-A to backup Rob Johnson, passing over Jamie Burke, it signaled that a decision on the direction of the 2009 season has been made. Quoting Baker:
In what he termed “a difficult call to make” Wakamatsu had a phone conversation with Burke earlier today and told him the team is looking to go in a younger direction for now.
When the manager is telling the veteran players in the organization that playing time decisions are being based on age, rather than expected performance, it signals that the team has shifted the priority from winning this year to winning in the future. Given where they stand in the division (seven games out of first place, ~7% chance of making the playoffs), it’s the right call. It’s time to pull the plug on the 2009 season, and make moves that reflect the reality that the franchise is putting 2010 ahead of 2009.
The team should move Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn as soon as possible. As we’ve talked about previously, these two are volatile assets, and the reward of moderately improving the return in trade as we get closer to the deadline is outweighed by the extra risk of collapse that both carry with them. Once Adrian Beltre shows a sustained hot stretch that pulls his numbers up, you probably have to move him too – his struggles so far have made him unlikely to be a Type A free agent at years end, which reduces the value in letting him leave via free agency.
Ship Miguel Batista to a contender looking for bullpen help (the Yankees?) and Endy Chavez to a team that needs a legitimate center fielder (the Braves?). And yes, put Russ Branyan on the market – for as well as he’s playing, he’s not a great bet to sustain this level of offense (.382 batting average on balls in play), and the team has several guys in Tacoma who could use an extended second half shot at the major leagues.
Also, Mike Sweeney should get a stint on the disabled list to allow the team to give Chris Shelton a look in the majors.
The shift from “we’re hoping to contend” to “we’re playing for next year” brings the necessity for some significant roster turnover. The team that takes the field in Oakland today won’t be together for much longer. Calling up Guillermo Quiroz seems fairly innocuous, but the process that led to that decision being made will also lead to the beginning of the shift away from playoff aspirations.
Let the sell off begin.
bye bye Ichiro? I think its time.
In years past, I’d be less than excited to see this post, and you all know why. While I’m not elated that the team is playing poorly, I have confidence in the current front office that the moves that will soon be made will be quality moves that will improve the organization throughout all levels. Gone are the days of selling the farm for a dollar.
Please don’t fail us, Jack. You’re our only hope.
Yeah, you’re supposed to mention/suggest trading Ichiro. It makes him hit 2 HR’s, remember?
I think as Dave is saying, let’s move the “assets” that have a more volatile quality to them. Let’s make the deals to get the guys that could self-destruct at any time a reality.
Ichiro! will still be Ichiro! in a month or two and then, only if the right pieces are offered for him.
I think the Mariners have the potential to set some kind of record in the realm of roster dismantling this year. It’s reasonable to think that we can trade our entire infield, outside of Kenji, and trade Ichiro, Chavez, and about a third of our pitching staff. Honestly, I’d love to see the crowd of prospects we’d get back. With that many young players, we’re throwing a lot of spaghetti at the wall, and something will stick.
Ichiro also might be worth more in an offseason trade than he would be in a trade during the season.
As much as I hate that it has gotten this bad, it’s definitely better that these parts stopped working together early enough to start prepping for 2010. But I don’t think 78 wins is out of the realm for this year depending on what we can get rid of so it wouldn’t be a complete failure either.
Also, what are the chances of moving the volatile assets in the next 2 weeks?
Heck no, keep Ichiro, he’s locked up below value for years to come and is the marketable face of the franchise and fits the defense-first mentality.
The earlier the Mariners trade, the better, since there are more contenders out there than there will be come July 31. Teams like Atlanta, Cincinnati, Toronto, San Francisco and any AL central team not from Cleveland are still “buyers” but could easily be sellers in the next month or even the next week. Hopefully Jack is sending out his scouts and getting on the phone and starting to dangle some lines. The return on investment is better now than later (except maybe for Beltre).
So is this where we can speculate on trades? If not just delete everything else following this sentence.
I still like Bedard to Philadelphia, especially if we can pry Jason Donald loose. Plus, I know his contract is kind’ve atrocious, but I would see how much of Jamie Moyer’s salary the Phillies would eat to include him in the deal, because honestly an innings-eater is really all we need if we lose Bedard, and his numbers should decline once he comes back to Safeco and he can mentor some younger pitchers.
Washburn…I have no idea. Probably in the NL Central if another team in that division finally lands Peavy, Washburn could be the “consolation prize”. Knowing Jack’s previous involvement with the Brewers, I could see Wash heading to Milwaukee for some diamond-in-the-rough prospect (if they have any left that Jack hasn’t signed).
Branyan makes sense for the Mets, if the Nick Johnson thing falls through.
Beltre makes the most sense for the Cardinals, especially if they don’t make any moves, their GM is under a lot of pressure to make sure their team stays competitive, and if Glaus fails in his comeback Beltre could become a good commodity. The Cardinals have a lot of OF depth that has good pop. I doubt we could get Ludwick or Ankiel, but maybe Rasmus or some other OF could be a good pickup, especially if we trade Endy.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Lowe/White go, what with the surplus of bullpen arms we have.
Betancourt and Batista are still going to be Mariners after July 31, I have a feeling
[capitalization, sentence structure, lack of periods. Really, this was a failure of epic proportions. Write better.]
In the spirit of the preceding comment, my apologies for “rosterbation,” if this is what my post amounts to.
The Cardinals are now expecting that Glaus will not return this season, but I would imagine that St. Louis will try to move quickly to address that issue, since there seems to be little enthusiasm for the Joe Thurston and Company “solution” at 3B. If so, then Beltre would have to continue his current trend and fast, I would think, for the M’s to get the kind of value back from the Cardinals that they might later in the season, if Beltre returns more to form. As for what St. Louis might offer from the big league roster, I am yet to be convinced that Ludwick is entirely for real, and if I am not mistaken, this is Ankiel’s walk year. While I think Ankiel could be the kind of LH OF bat the M’s could use, I don’t see much point in trading one pending free agent for another, unless Ankiel would agree to an extension as part of the deal.
I agree that Bedard and Washburn are both volatile assets, though I think more so in the case of the latter, barring injury to the former. If Bedard stays healthy, I think his value will hold until later in the summer (acknowledging, of course, that this is a HUGE if), whereas I have to wonder how many quality starts Washburn has in him.
As for Ichiro: couldn’t agree more that trading him is not a good idea unless someone makes an offer the M’s simply could not refuse, and I’m having a hard time imagining what that would be — unless there is a GM out there willing to give up Adam Jones and Chris Tillman-types, say along with a proven LH late inning reliever and two other prospects with upside
. As ever, Ichiro has been successfully setting the table; no one’s clearing it behind him.
In terms of youth movements, I wonder (and Dave or Jay may be the guys to answer this) if I am wrong to see potentially the second coming of Raul Ibanez in Michael Saunders? Is there any talk of getting him up sooner as opposed to later?
I think the Ichiro trade talk is rooted in the post a couple weeks ago dedicated to trading Ichiro, and how it may be a good idea. Why do you think he has more value here than anywhere? He’s a baseball player, and we’re a baseball team, and so are all the teams we would trade him to. Because we’re on the Pacific Rim? Did the Japanese media not follow Dice-K all the way to Boston? Ichiro has more value to a contender right now because his win value represents a threshold to them. For us, he gets us 4 more wins that no one will remember. For a contender, those 4 wins could mean a playoff berth. I guess you could consider trading him “pawning him off,” but I’d like to know what pawn shops you go to, because the pawn shops I’ve been to give you about half of what your item is worth, whereas we could double our value. 2-3 years of declining Ichiro, even if the decline is slight, is less valuable than 10 years of an everyday producer, which is what we could get by trading Ichiro.
Last year the towel pictures started showing up ~May 15 and look at us now, we almost made it to June!
Do we really need to get rid of Chavez? I had this notion that we could upgrade the offense by making a bunch of changes in the infield and thus leave our ridiculously good Chavez/Gutz/Ichiro! outfield intact. Chavez is an offensive liability, but we should be able to afford to keep him if we can make the infielders more productive at the plate. This means moving Wlad, but I figure he’ll bring a lot more value in a trade anyway. His approach has improved, yes, but he’s still a bad fit for Safeco long term.
I agree, in principle, though this returns me to my position that the package offered in return would need to be pretty impressive. As we are all too painfully aware, prospects don’t always turn out as we might hope (remember when Clint Nageotte and Joel Piniero were going to be the cornerstone of our dominating rotation for years to come?). Therefore, I would want to see a deal where several highly touted prospects came back in return in order to “guarantee,” insofar as that’s ever possible, someone who would in fact turn out to be an “everyday” producer for years to come (10 might be a bit optimistic; a free agency would intervene somewhere along the way).
I’m for moving every position player but ICHIRO! and Gutierrez…
I LOVE Beltre for his defense, but I doubt he would re-sign with Seattle, so we might at well sell as high as we can with him…
As for the pitchers, we have some really nice pieces, but where I’d be dissapointed to see a couple of them go, the only one we need to keep at all costs is The King…
So if I’m Jack, I’m taking offers on the entire 25-man EXCEPT Gut, ICHIRO!, and Felix…
I’m excited for once about having a GM that can gut this thing, and we will come out better…really exciting time right now…
How did this turn into an Ichiro! thread?
A “sell off,” as I understand it, invovles selling off those assests that need to be moved quickly (FAs to be) or no longer have any use to their current owner (Lopez, Yuni). Ichiro, Franklin G., Felix, etc. do not fall into that category.
I am for moving Branyan and giving Clement and Carp ABs with the M’s (provided Clement’s knee is healthy to play with the M’s).
As long as I don’t have to see Kenji at the plate ever again I’m ok.
Would a sell off include selling on Clement (.309/.382/.533 OPS:915) before other teams quit thinking of him as a catcher or would it entail making room for Clement?
You took the words right out of my, err… fingers.
Players for trade should be considered in the following tiers:
The first tier includes all players to be FA’s, which include Washburn, Bedard, Batista and Beltre. I guess Branyan may fit into that category as well as a sell-high.
The second tier should include players we’d like to get rid of (realistically) which include people like Betancourt and Lopez.
Ichiro is very, very down on the priority list. You could entertain offers for him, but as mentioned before it would have to be a HUGE blockbuster.
It is confounding to me when I hear people mention trading Ichiro. He has been the only consistently good player we have had for many years, he is fun to watch, and he is extremely professional and respectful. For people that understand the nuances of the game they understand the value of Ichiro and in reality the Mariner organization has been the one who has failed him over the years not putting talent around him, putting bad outfielders around him making him cover even more ground, which he has done without complaint. He is currently on a 20 game hit streak, putting up excellent numbers both offensively and defensively. My hope is that Jack Z uses the pieces he has to trade to build a team to contend in the next couple years so we can send Ichiro into retirement a few years from now on a winner, perhaps even a championship, and he can really enjoy his last few years in baseball. It must be tough for him to play on bad teams every year with so much instability and yet continue to play at such a high level, for that I am grateful and sincerely want him to retire a mariner more than any other player that has played for the Mariners.
Butwheredoesthemeatgo, it seems like you view trading Ichiro as a way of blaming him for not winning a championship here. You’re right, the teams around him have been bad, and he never had a chance to win outside of ’01 or’ 02. Sure, stockpiling talent this year, winning a championship in 2 years and having Ichiro ride off into the sunset with a Mariner’s hat on would be a great story, but Z is a GM, not an author. Ichiro is our best player, and he would bring the best return. Openly shopping Ichiro gives us our best chance of getting the next ‘Face of the Franchise.’ There are plenty of contending teams who need a leadoff hitter with a glove, and they would compete to get him, leading to a bigger haul for the M’s. Also, how do you know that Ichiro wouldn’t be open to, and maybe even excited about a trade? Could you imagine the attention he would get in Japan if he won a championship? Trading Ichiro makes sense.
I would hesitate in trading Branyan because he strikes me as someone whom most teams and fans continue to undervalue (strikeout king reputation, $1.4 mil scrap heap contract etc.). I could be wrong, but I doubt we’ll get anything more than fringe prospects for him. I know his BABIP will come back to earth, but an average BABIP would give him, what, a .900 OPS? His SO, BB, LD rates, and isolated slugging have been remarkably consistent since he began his eye-training program the spring of 2008. I think the team should at least consider extending him a year if the price is right ($3-4m/year), maybe with an option, too.
Just like the raccoon refusing to let go of the shiny object and thus free himself from the trap before the hunter’s arrival, I’m still holding onto the “build to the future AND be competitive” idea. No, we’re not going to contend but if we have a mid-80s San Diego Padres firesale we won’t even be entertaining to watch. This isn’t really 1993 where we have a young core with veteran pieces. This team is more a weird collection of spare parts, ultimate busts (Lopez, Yuni) and Bavasi leftovers. But the idea of selling off everything just brings back memories of the 80s. I don’t want to go there.
So if I’m Jack, I’m taking offers on the entire 25-man EXCEPT Gut, ICHIRO!, and Felix…
I wouldn’t exempt either of them from offers. Ichiro was adequately covered by Dave already, and Felix is a little over two and a half years from hitting a huge free agency payday that will represent a significant risk for any team who signs him, and is probably the ONE player on the roster who could give you a monster-sized haul.
I’m not saying you go out of your way to trade King Felix, but if some team wants to recreate the Bartolo Colon deal from a couple years back, and just shovel huge chunks of organizational talent at you for an ace, you HAVE to make that trade, and you might as well drop his name and see what you can get trolling the line.
Augh. But it’s not our biggest priority. Focus on getting value on those that we may not get any value for if we wait first.
To see the problem with trading Ichiro, look at the Putz trade over the summer. Putz was an overvalued commodity that was able to bring back pieces that combined could be worth more than the player we traded. The question is whether or not Ichiro is overvalued enough to command the same type of “lopsided” deal for us.
Think Billy Beane here, we’re trying to make trades that benefit us and screw the other side without making it look like it.
Meat, Dave wrote a “Should the team do the unthinkable?” post about trading Ichiro a few weeks ago.
Are the Ms going to be active in bidding on Latin American players this year? Seems like they have been getting out bid by other clubs.
I’m sorry, but I really don’t understand your argument at all. To me, the only goal of this franchise should be to win a championship. Win values and the like are an effort to win more games, to get better position in the playoffs to win a championship. Getting to an ALCS or World Series is cool, but if you lose, to me, it was worthless. We will not win a championship with Ichiro. It will NOT happen. So why keep him? A lopsided deal would be great, but a ‘fair’ deal would be fantastic too, if the players are young now and have a chance to contribute to our championship team. Look at the Florida Marlins, two real firesales led to two World Series championships. Ichiro is a tremendous asset, but if his skills don’t translate into a championship, then he is a waste.
Think Billy Beane here, we’re trying to make trades that benefit us and screw the other side without making it look like it.
It doesn’t even have to be that. They don’t take a championship back that you win trading prospects for a rental, just because the prospects turn out well.
There are also trades that legitimately benefit both teams- where two organizations have surpluses and deficits of talent that match well. Say, one where they have 4254513 different guys who project to “corner OF/DH/1B who can rake” who are blocking each other, but no middle infielders, one with metric tons of organizational middle infielders who will slap hit to a .350 OBP and have plus gloves, but nothing in players who project to “really above average MLB hitter” at a corner.
As for trading partners, though, I wouldn’t mind seeing what we could get from Omar Minyana and the Mets for Erik Bedard and Russell Branyan – if getting fleeced in the Putz-Green-Reed deal didn’t scare him off already. The Mets, as Dave pointed out today at FanGraphs, have the injury bug, and a guy who can play 1B, OF, and 3B in a pinch would do them wonders. There’s a certain left-handed SS prospect there whom Bavasi passed over in favor of Joshua friggin’ Fields.
Really, any of the starting position players except Gutierrez should be available, recognizing that some are untradeable (Johjima) and that some would be very difficult to trade in season (Ichiro obviously, Griffey due to the farewell tour).
Zduriencik has done more to make over the pitching staff, so there are fewer pitchers to trade. In addition to Bedard, Washburn, and Batista, one sell high candidate worth exploring would be Aardsma, who I like, but might fetch something more interesting in return. He was a free talent pickup who has established some value with his success this year, yet remains a volatile commodity with his control problems. Plus, he now has closing experience and a shiny ERA. The team has considerable depth in the bullpen, with Fields and Aumont on the way, and Aardsma will be a due a salary hike when he becomes arbitration eligible after this year. Aardsma is by no means a must trade or any sort of priority to trade, but if an opportunity presents itself to improve a more pressing need than hard-throwing right-handed reliever, it could be a good move.
We will not win a championship with Ichiro. It will NOT happen.
I’m in the “sure, trade Ichiro if you get an offer that makes sense” camp, but this just isn’t true. There’s no evidence that Ichiro is close to done as a player, and really, if you’re thinking it’s going to take 3-5 years to rebuild this team, you’re seriously overestimating how long it takes to go worst-to-first in MLB, and it’s very obvious from 2001-2003 that Ichiro is more than capable of being a major contributor on a very good team.
Not that I don’t think he’s awesome, but why would you consider Gutierrez to be untouchable?
Zduriencik should be willing to entertain offers for every player in the organization, really.
While it is true that this team is not like 1993, and is, in some ways a “weird collection” of various parts, I agree that the answer is not a Padres-style fire sale (though, lest we forget, San Diego did make it the World Series five years afterward). Though in some respects, that example is instructive: the Padres did not trade off the pieces they saw as essential to remaking the team, such as Tony Gwynn. Bear in mind, though, that other pieces in that trade had a lot more value as trade bait than what the M’s currently have to offer. For those interested in the details, there’s a decent analysis at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/san-diego-padres-1993-fire-sale/
The Dads gave up guys like Gary Sheffield, Bruce Hurst, Fred McGriff, and Tony Fernandez in various deals, but they got back Andy Ashby and Trevor Hoffman, along with other guys, like Derek Bell, who they were later able to package to get players such as Ken Caminiti and Greg Vaughn.
In other words, the Padres had a young, potential HOF talent in Sheffield as well as already proven veterans (such as Fernandez) and emerging superstars (McGriff) in order to get back a haul of various pieces they ultimately used, directly or indirectly to win. The Mariners have neither that kind of talent to offer back, however, nor does this front office have a short-sighted mandate to slash payroll, which the Padres’ GM at the time made the best of.
This brings me to my point (sorry for taking so long): a fire sale is not the answer, not because it’s agonizing to watch, but because in the case of the M’s, it would be largely pointless, it seems to me. The focus should be on leveraging the most we can out of the three talents unlikely to be here next year at any rate, namely, Bedard, Beltre, and Washburn. In addition, if another team wants to offer decent talent for a major leaguer at whose position we have organizational depth (such as Branyan’s), the M’s have to listen.
With regards to the “trade-tier”, I think we can all agree that Bedard and Washburn are at the top. If the Ms do nothing else but move these two for a decent return I’ll mostly be satisfied.
Next up would be Chavez because he’s a decent chip and the Ms CANNOT compete offensively with an outfield of Chavez/Gutz/Ichiro (unless they have the next Lou Whitaker/Alan Trammell combo in the minors, which I highly doubt).
Beltre and Branyan are on the third tier — you shop them but not so aggressively. Everybody else (including Ichiro and Felix) I think you listen to offers, but don’t actively shop. I would like to see Yuni and Lopez go, but I don’t think you’re getting anything for them.
The team has considerable depth in the bullpen, with Fields and Aumont on the way
Ah, this reminds me of when Clint Nageotte was our next top-of-rotation starter…
Fields is walking a batter an inning in AA ball, and Aumont is still in A ball. We’ve all seen how the “let’s throw kids into the bullpen with great fastballs, before they prove any consistent results in the minors” philosophy has worked out for Mark Lowe and Brandon Morrow (not so great). Let’s not assume just because they are a high draft pick and they can throw a four seamer really, REALLY fast that we can plug them in tomorrow. Personally, I would be fine if neither of them came onto the M’s MLB roster in 2009, and they had to prove their way on in 2010.
Zduriencik should be willing to entertain offers for every player in the organization, really.
Yeah, pretty much. I didn’t see Gutz in that post. There’s no reason to hold out anyone on the MLB roster as untouchable.
awestby51, you don’t think I want a championship here as well?
Look, all I’m saying is that we have pieces here that HAVE to be moved this year, otherwise we get absolutely zero for them. ZERO. If we’re trying to build a championship team, isn’t it a waste to let these players go for nada? Sure, we’re freeing up a ton of payroll, but shouldn’t we also get players if we can?
So Dr Z should be actively looking to get these players (Washburn, Bedard, Batista, Beltre) traded for as much as possible. That’s his highest priority since the time value of these are critical.
That’s your opinion – which affects your decision to move him this year.
My argument is that while he’s not getting any younger, he’s not detrimental to the team unlike other pieces (Yuni, Lopez). So while the long-term plan of the team may involve trading Ichiro, we can afford to keep him longer while Dr Z focuses on getting rid of the parts that aren’t helping or trying to get value on sell-high candidates.
God, I swear Ichiro is the most divisive character among the fanbase here.
In my humble opinion it is still in the best interest of the team to trade for pieces to surround ichiro with rather than trading him for pieces. He makes 18 million dollars a year and he is 35 years old, with those factors in place he is not likely to bring back enough value to make it worth trading him. I feel I am just being realistic about Ichiro’s value on the market, if I am wrong and he brings back a haul of talent than Jack Z should go for it. Saying the Mariners cannot win a championship with Ichiro just because it hasn’t happened is just silly. Speaking in absolutes like that makes it hard to take that particular opinion seriously.
Since I’m on the topic of fire sales…
This is not entirely true. The 1997 Marlins were a combination of guys acquired in trades or who came up through the system (unless you meant that Sheffield being part of the Padres’ fire sale led to that championship), with a hearty helping of high-priced free agent talent. The Marlins’ first fire sale resulted, eventually, in the nucleus that won the 2003 World Series, after which followed the second fire sale. The Marlins are now six years out from that unloading of talent, and their record so far this year is 21-26, which may sound familiar, as it is also the M’s current record, and this despite the blistering start the Marlins got off to.
Beltre, Bedard and Washburn are wasting assets, unlikely to contribute next year either by re-signing or by bringing draft picks, so yes, trade them.
Branyan I’d be less eager to move, unless we got something really good back for him. We have an apparent surplus of 1B/DH guys, but maybe not. Griffey and Sweeney are probably gone next year. Clement, if other teams still believe he’s a catcher, might bring more in trade than Branyan, and Carp could be a bust. So, I’d only trade Branyan if I could get something better for him than for Clement, and only if that something was likely to contribute cheaply next year. Otherwise I’d figure on him and Carp being the 1B/DH next year. Plus, Branyan is one of the few bright spots this year – trading him would likely really tank interest for next year. A lot of fans would just flat out give up on the club until their next playoff appearance.
Look, all I’m saying is that we have pieces here that HAVE to be moved this year, otherwise we get absolutely zero for them. ZERO.
That’s not entirely true- we get their salary back. The Twins over the years have done just fine letting guys like Silva or Torii Hunter walk, the Angels let Washburn walk out the door, and so on. It’s not going to kill our organization if we don’t find a good trade for Washburn/Batista, because there are plenty of in-house candidates that can be cheap bottom-of-rotation guys (RRS, Vargas, Olson, Jakubauskas, Baldwin).
Beltre and Bedard are different cases, because at their peak they really ARE excellent players (3-5 WAR), and it WILL be tough to replace them on the roster, but it’s going to be hard get a ton of value for them in trade, because they have significant flaws that hinder their value over and above their status as rentals (Bedard’s injury history, Beltre’s general suckiness in 2009, his stats being depressed by Safeco, plus his well-established career of being like most DR players- you don’t walk off the island). Realistically, I’d see either of them fetching less back in trade than Teixeira did last year for the Braves, unless someone gets majorly stupid (no reason not to root for that, however).
No player is ever untouchable, but it’s hard to see how trading Gutierrez (or Felix or any other player we have at a below-market contract next year and/or beyond) makes sense. The whole point of a sell-off in season is that we don’t think we can win this year, so we’ll make a deal with a team who does think it can win this year. We trade for the future, the other team aims for the present. Players like Gutierrez don’t fit the above criteria. He’s arguably good enough to be a win-now player, but he’s also a legitimate part of the M’s future. The M’s should specifically not be trading away the future. So, yeah, if some GM is irrationally in love with Gutierrez (tough to imagine a GM loving him more than Doc Z loves him), I supposed we’d trade him for a better player. Sure, we’d trade Gutierrez for Justin Upton, but that’s stupid to consider. We’d trade Felix, too, if SF would give us Lincecum and Baumgarner for him. Duh.
This all so obvious I can’t believe I just typed it.
What I can’t get over this year… what strikes me more than any other thing… is to find myself witnessing a Mariners organisation willing and able to work up driver’s seat decisions at — exactly — this time of year.
… Instead of the gut-wrenching if not nauseating, status-quo, what-me-worry, head-in-the-sand, attitudes of the past (gulp) decade. An attitude based on a complacency I could never understand. Fan ignorance (the butts kept a-coming, no matter what)? The Connie Mack cynicism (better business to have a good season, but not make it into the playoffs)? Or pure bad luck… where mediocrity spent most of its time in self-explanatory self-defence.
I can barely remember the last time I could say I really enjoyed the opening weeks, let alone nearly two months, of a season. True, things have slid into their usual, well-known mid-season voyage of shallows and misery… But the big difference is that, in the past, when things were that way there was a fatalistic gloom hanging over all of it. The sort of gloom that could only be understood by a Mariners fan, with the team in a slim lead in the late innings, seeing Bobby Ayala warming up…
And, in those numbingly recalled days where, going into June, it all became (to mangle the Bard once more), simply another Summer of Discontent. And then to watch July pass without anything significant happening. Which felt like being stuck at home, babysitting someone’s brat, while a great party was going on next door.
One thing, guys: I know it’s very much the flavor of the month… but I think — for the sake of intellectual honesty — you can add Yuni to the discussion without seeming too obvious, redundant, or simplistic. He needs to be right up there with the rest on your list of the eminently deportable whenever you get around to the subject of a heave-ho sell-off.
You want to make the right move at the right time. You don’t sell for the sake of selling, and you don’t sell unless you think you’re getting a good deal (or you’re Bavasi). And meanwhile the team has to keep playing, which means some trades that might make sense in the abstract aren’t practical in real life. Darn realities, makes all this accumulated wisdom from playing Fantasy Baseball almost worthless!
To you. To you. Not to everyone.
Personally, my standard of greatness is the record of ’90s Braves (and I hate the Braves). I would much rather see a team with a consistent winning record, and that regularly makes the postseason, even if it rarely (or never) wins a WS in that span. I would certainly rather have a decade like that than go the Marlins route, even though the fish won two WS. I’m sure M’s ownership would prefer it too (since they’re not Evil Lorias): A consistently winning team brings in a lot of revenue, which makes it easier to be aconsistently winning team. And we all know the postseason is a crap shoot.
The whole “the World Series is the only thing that counts, anything else is failure” is a Yankees attitude — and look how well that has served them in this decade.
This is a four-team division. Give me a team that has a winning record year in and year out, and I’d expect it to reach the post-season every four years (maybe more often if the wild card leaves the AL East). Give me meaningful baseball in September, even if it’s just an exciting pennant race the M’s ultimately lose, and give me the playoffs now and then. Give me that, and I’ll be happy… and that WS will show up eventually.
That’s my opinion, and that’s all it is, but that’s all yours is either.
Oh, so that’s the reason? He has some magic rock in his locker (nicknamed Buck Marinez, perhaps) that causes the team to fail? Amazing how that managed to reach across the Pacific and do exert its influence even before he got here.
Look, I get that we’re talking about a two or three year process here, as Zduriencik and Co undo the damage Bavasi wrought and restock the system. (Though it could be less, if things break right.) And Ichiro isn’t getting younger while that happens (though he’s a better bet to successfully play through his late 30s than most outfielders). I agreed with Dave’s post, and I’d certainly entertain the idea of trading Ichiro for the right pieces. But they’d have to be the right pieces. And other players are more likely to lose value if they’re not moved soon. So while Zduriencik should certainly listen if he gets a call about Ichiro, he should be spending the vast majority of his time and energy trying to move those other players first.
No player is ever untouchable, but it’s hard to see how trading Gutierrez (or Felix or any other player we have at a below-market contract next year and/or beyond) makes sense.
Billy Beane has made a career of trading outstanding young pitching that is hitting years 4-5-6 of their “below market” contracts, and netting serious talent on the return. I don’t see why GMZ shouldn’t emulate this if the return is good for Felix. Again, this isn’t “ship him out of town” ala Carlos Guillen, but Felix is the ONE player on the roster who falls in the sweet spot of being both priced reasonably for the time he stays under contract (meaning teams aren’t looking at having a Mike Hampton-esque deal backfire on them, so even midmarket teams should be willing to bid, increasing your chances of a bidding war- Ichiro has a much more limited set of teams he’d fit with) AND being a very high-caliber talent. If the M’s are looking to swap assets in order to maximize talent in the organization, you HAVE to consider what you can get for the best asset in the organization.
Not to be negative, but how many championships has Billy Beane won? I know he does a great job in trades, but he isn’t the greatest GM ever…
Weeks of winning a reasonable number of games that actually mattered 2008: 0
Weeks of winning a reasonable number of games that actually mattered 2009: 4 (April)
Weeks left to play 2009: 16
Will check back again in 2012.
I don’t, which is why I wrote that the M’s should not make him available, not that he is untouchable. He is not untouchable, but he is the exact type of player the M’s should be stockpiling, not trading away. The M’s should not be calling other teams (or telling other teams that call) that Gutierrez is available. Sure, if another team offers considerably more than his value, you make that deal, but of the starting position players, he is the last one you want to shop.
Aardsma’s results have been better than his performance (-2.10 ERA-FIP, 92.9% LOB%, 3.3% HR/FB, .212 BABIP, 25.7% LD%) and he has a ZIPS rest of season projection of 4.33 FIP and 5.02 ERA. With the way he is pitching, his results are not sustainable at their current level. He has been better than Morrow and Lowe to date, but going forward, he may not be (and ZIPS thinks Morrow and Lowe will be better than Aardsma the rest of the year).
The point is that the relief pitching is one of the areas where the organization as a whole has considerable depth (led in the minors by Fields and Aumont), not that Fields or Aumont should be immediately called up and replace Aardsma on the roster. In terms of rebuilding, the bullpen is a much lower priority than the rotation and the starting position players, and certainly an easier part to rebuild. There will be plenty of Aardsma-types available in the offseason for little investment, plus Jeremy Affeldt-types available on relatively reasonable free agent contracts.
Not to be negative, but how many championships has Billy Beane won?
Arguing about the merits of Billy Beane is beginning to get off the subject for this particular post.
noooooooooooooooo
fairweatherfan, since you checked back in this year, I’m betting you’ll check back in next year, too.
If it really is rosterbation season, well….
Trading Ichiro will be extremely difficult unless it’s to a team who is willing to take on his salary — $12M/year + $5M/year deferred with interest through 2012. And no team, not even the Yankees, will deal for him without the M’s paying part of that salary.
So, the idea that this will “give the team $17M/year to sign free agents with” is hokum. The reality is probably half that — $8.5M/year — and even then it probably wouldn’t go back into salaries (since even at the $75M/year or so they’re at now the M’s are still overspending).
Beltre, even with his poor hitting, has a lot of value if he can move to a park with a short left field power alley and CF. Here’s his hit chart; you can see that Safeco’s “Bermuda triangle” in left has been death to his hitting, and that he’s tended to go opposite field here more than in other parks. I would think that St. Louis may not be bad if Glaus is seriously hurt.
The rest… Felix is extremely valuable, so he’s worth trading if you’re getting Zimmerman, Strasburg, the lease on Nationals Stadium, and a guaranteed government bailout of the roster, but no less. Washburn will be dealt for spare parts. We might get a type-A prospect for Bedard, but his injury issues are bad.
On the whole, I wouldn’t expect a “fire sale” to really net all that much. Fire sales rarely do provide teams with lots of valuable pieces unless it’s like Florida in ’97 where they were trading lots of valuable players for lots of prospects. Most of the time they give you a servicable player and some roster fluff.
Billy Beane may not be the greatest GM ever (though I’m not certain how one would measure that and adjust for factors such as payroll, etc.), but he has been very successful at building a system that develops talent and remains consistently competitive from one year to the next. The A’s may be struggling this year, but part of his plan in acquiring some of the pieces he did was in the expectation that the team would probably not be competitive, would only be so as a result of the overall weakness of the division, and if it failed to be so he would have veterans he could deal to contenders for more prospects. Beane would be the first to tell you that he would have loved to hold on to guys like Giambi or Tejada, but given the payroll strictures in Oakland, holding on to such players would mean having one or two exceptional talents surrounded by a collection of stiffs that would win 70-80 games, year in, year out.
The frustration for Beane, as it is for many baseball front office types, is that the postseason is, as one other commenter remarked, a crap shoot (indeed, I believe Beane says as much in Moneyball, though I believe the phrase was there accompanied by a colorful adjective not suitable for this venue
A team that is very good over 162 games can fall victim to bad luck, slumps, a manager’s inability to handle his pitching staff, etc., over a postseason that will at most last for 19 games (or, in the case of the 2001 Mariners, 10).
Not to be negative, but how many championships has Billy Beane won? I know he does a great job in trades, but he isn’t the greatest GM ever…
Exactly two less than John Schuerholz has during a 26 year career as a MLB GM for two different organizations, and exactly the same number as Mark Shapiro, Terry Ryan and Bill Bavasi as GMs- zero.
Clearly the differences between Bavasi, Ryan, Shapiro and Beane are meaningless, given that none of them have won championships during their tenures as GMs.
Seriously, if your standard is “must win championship every couple of years you are a GM or you suck”, there aren’t a lot of MLB GMs who don’t suck- basically Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman (though not recently) are about it, and maybe Pat Gillick. I prefer to evaluate on method and single-season records, not playoff results, especially considering the fact that MLB’s three-round playoff system involves 8 teams in series that are quite often coin flips.
And Adam Jones is “killing” pitchers nowadays. How I wanted that trade never happened.
I’m pretty sure this is what some Orioles fans said last year:
“It is confounding to me when I hear people mention trading Bedard. He has been the only consistently good player we have had for many years.”
Can we just accept the fact that every player is available in the right trade, no matter how good they’ve been?
If they are indeed acknowledging that this is a long-term project, how will it affect the upcoming draft? Are they more likely to pick a high-school talent? I would think so, but the risk may be too high. Did Big Z have a consistent philosophy when at Milwaukee?
I’ve made a huge mistake.
no.
The point is that the relief pitching is one of the areas where the organization as a whole has considerable depth (led in the minors by Fields and Aumont)
That’s more reasonable, though I don’t think they are anything close to ready. Moving Aardsma is fine, though. Heck, I would be happy to listen to offers for Morrow.
Felix is extremely valuable, so he’s worth trading if you’re getting Zimmerman, Strasburg, the lease on Nationals Stadium, and a guaranteed government bailout of the roster, but no less.
That’s a bit of an exaggeration, I think. Go look at the Bartolo Colon trade for the sort of deal I am talking about. Now clearly, the Expos overpaid for Colon… but Felix has one more extra year under team control than Colon did, so he’s more valuable. (There’s also the factor that we could probably lump in some talent from the farm system if we had to, since we are overstocked with LHB corner players.)
Fire sales rarely do provide teams with lots of valuable pieces unless it’s like Florida in ‘97 where they were trading lots of valuable players for lots of prospects.
Well, that’s the idea behind trading Felix- net as much talent that is very close to MLB ready as you can on the flip. I would think GMZ would be wanting the Grady Sizemores and Dan Harens coming back, not the B-level prospects you’d normally fetch in deadline deals.
I only read half of the post, so I’m sorry if someone else pointed this out.
I spoke with someone that works in the CVB with the M’s and they implied that Ichiro! isn’t going anywhere based on the fact that pretty much all of their tourism is from Japan, and pretty much all for Ichiro!. Its a crappy place to be, but without the fans, the money leaves, and without the money… Well, so on and so forth.
Too bad Ichiro can’t be moved. The others: Bedard, Washburn, Beltre, even Batista and Chavez, should be moved if we can get something worthwhile in return.
How about Jarrod Washburn/Yuniesky Betancourt to the Reds for Homer Bailey/Drew Stubbs/Paul Janish? Reds need a 4th Starter. The M’s need young depth at SP/CF/SS. This deal could be a Washburn for Bailey/Stubbs, but this could be a good way to offload Betancourt and pick up another SS.
That’s a bit of an exaggeration, I think. Go look at the Bartolo Colon trade for the sort of deal I am talking about.
A deal that basically net the Indians one franchise player (Sizemore), one mid-rotation pitcher who had a couple of good years and a great year sandwiched around a lot of crap (Lee), a kid that never was good until his year 26 season — in Cincinnati (Phillips), and Lee Stevens, who was 34.
It was, essentially, a two-for-one deal, although in the process they also lost the 2004 sandwich pick (where they’d probably end up with Zach Jackson, whom they signed in the offseason).
But two things, though:
1. Colon was 28 when he was dealt. He debuted at 24. Felix is 23 right now. Colon was peaking; Felix has yet to peak.
2. The Colon deal was a bit of a special case, between MLB’s ownership of the Expos and the questionable nature of the deal. It may represent the outer limits of such a deal.
One would expect the M’s to get more back than Sizemore and Lee from a Felix deal. Ideally, they’d get back one player who could make an immediate impact and one player a year or two from an MLB debut with high upside, and then a couple of medium-to-high risk but high upside prospects as well. I can’t think of a team that could make that deal, save the Red Sox if they were willing to depart with, say, Youkilis and Bard.
Trading Felix isn’t out of the question. But I’m not sure how you effectively value him in the market. His current value is high, his potential value is HOF caliber, but he’s also a real risk. There’s a deal out there for him, sure. But it’s going to be a deal where either the trading team loses big or the M’s lose big. And I know which team I don’t want to lose big.
Pretty depressing, though sensible, stuff. Too bad 2009 is paying overmuch for management’s sins of seasons past.
It’s times like this I’m glad I have three favorite teams, two of which should remain legit contenders (Tigers and Mets).
Well, Phillips and Sizemore were probably the Expos’ top two prospects, and I don’t think there’s any question the Indians won that deal if you look at things like WAR value the players have contributed in MLB, or the commentary at the time. Phillips being a late bloomer is kind of like how Carlos Guillen bloomed late- and come to think of it, the Mark Langston/Randy Johnson/Freddy Garcia deals are also how you’d want to structure this, too- a case where you grab prime prospects out of a system. True, Reed was a busted flush… but it was the right idea.
The other thing is we’ll have a better idea of where the organization lies post-Draft Day. Right now, the depth on the left side of the infield and minor league RH starters is kind of ugly, and the fact that Clement/Morrow/Aumont/Fields are a collective HUGE waste of high draft picks is kind of a problem (basically, four years of high draft picks have netted us an older version of Mike Carp with a bad knee, and three younger versions of David Aarsdma or JJ Putz).
It’s time, June is closing in, and any upgrades this team could make, could at best assure them a 78-84 win season at this point anyways. Sell while Bedard is healthy and Washburn is pitching decent.
They should be willing to deal off every veteren player who does not absolutely project into long-term plans. Even be willing to deal off some guys who might be, in order to unload some people whose contracts and performances make them difficult to unload.
Trading Ichiro might be a good baseball moving, but it is a freaking disastrous move, financially. Remove Ichiro and you’re talking about a huge loss in fans at the game and other revenue streams.
And something has to pay for this roster, and unlike the Athletics, we don’t want the Yankee’s luxury tax paying our entire roster, do we?
(The only reason I COULD see trading Ichiro is if you got something epically awesome in return. But I can’t even think of (within reason) what that would be…)
And, like I said in yesterday’s thread, if we trade Beltre, who will be going to third?
And if we trade Beltre and Branyan, who are going to be our corner infielders? Does Carp deserve that shot?
Dumb question about baseball rules:
Is it possible to move Kenji and Silva to the 60-day DL? This could free up room on the 40-man, if needed.
Ichiro is on pace for 237 hits despite missing eight games. This is how bad the offense is, however: although it looks like Ichiro will easily get to 200 hits, he is on pace to score only 61 runs for the whole season. 100 is his previous low. He has four home runs so far. The Mariners have driven him in 12 times all season with several more failures in today’s game.
A decent indication that it’s time to deal and that Ichiro need not be near the top of the priority list.
I wrote a comment here about two weeks ago that the M’s would not see 500 again, and that they were done in 2009. They should run up a flag that says “for sale” send the veterans down the road and stock up on younger players. If they could only get the boat load of young talent shipped to Baltimore in the Bedard trade.
I said it a couple weeks ago when Dave postulated about an Ichiro trade, and I’ll say it now:
If the right trade for Ichiro materializes, and Ichiro wants to be traded, do it.
If he doesn’t want to be traded and wants to ride with this new wave of players coming, don’t trade him.
But, what Ichiro wants should be the deciding factor.
Normally, I wouldn’t say that- but this is not a rank-and-file major-leaguer, this is a franchise-face that has very legit HoF credentials.
When a guy is in the top 1% of hitters who have ever lived, what he wants for himself should be listened to.
As for the next few weeks, well…rosterbation’s fun and all, but I’ll wait until I’ve formulated some legitimate scenarios before I post them.
I will say ChiSox GM Kenny Williams should look in our direction for Erik Bedard.
And if the Mariners aren’t involved in at least three trades before the trading deadline that bring young talent back, I’ll be more than mildly disappointed.
A Contrary View
It’s not time to punt 2009 yet. Yes, the odds are against it but the teams in the division and the league are sufficiently flawed that anything is possible.
It is best to adopt Beane’s 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 view of the season. The first thrd is spent finding out what we have : good defense, good pitching, weak hitters. The next third is spent making adjustments. Get some left hand relief pitching. Drop two of Beltre, Lopez, Yuni for better bats. Find another outfielder with some pop. Drop one or both of Sweeney and Wlad. Bring up Clement and Carp. By all means listen to offers for anyone but get back players that can help relatively soon. I don’t want to go to Safeco just to watch prospects that may not pan out. The goal should be a team that can win some games the remainder of the year and in future years. Luckily, it looks like that is Z’s plan.
Above all, don’t trade Ichiro unless the return is overwhelming. These last few years, he has been one of the few reasons to go watch a Mariner’s game. Baseball isn’t just a team sport. It is also an individual sport and the M’s owe it to the fans to put some players out there worth watching. Only one team can win the WS every year but even the M’s can have a player or two that just make you shake your head in wonder. I want to see a player go 5 for 5 or climb the right field wall to make a catch even if the team doesn’t win.
As for Ichiro, I don’t see him being moved this season. I do, however, see him wearing Dodger blue at the start of the 2010 or 2011 season.
Well, the 2009 season is being punted about 2 months in. Guess it’s better than 2008. Baby steps.
How many more days till catchers and pitchers report for 2010 spring training?
About 250 days.
However, the goal wasn’t ever really to win in 2009. The goal was to build a winning franchise.
And at this point in the season, its time to focus on that, not on this season.
After 2010, Ichiro will have no-trade protection by 5-and-10 rights. He’ll be wearing another uniform only if he says so. It’s safe to assume he’ll say so only if something sweetens the deal for him.
There’s a difference between the (so-called) luxury tax and revenue sharing. No other franchise sees a penny of NYY luxury tax money.
How ’bout Bedard and prospects for Peavy?
We get a top of the rotation starter who is under contract for multiple years, with a high ceiling…
Padres get, uh, Bedard.
PBS: as Dave showed over at Fangraphs recently, Peavy’s really not as good as his ballpark and league make him look.