Griffey done and an anchor of the lineup

DMZ · May 31, 2009 at 8:00 am · Filed Under Mariners 

(and that’s your 09 lineup for you)

The bait we were supposed to bite on this off-season, fixed to hook by Griffey’s agent, was that Griffey’s hitting struggles of late came from his (possibly un- or semi-)disclosed knee injury, but he’d be great now that the knee was better.

I was pretty skeptical. A lot of people were skeptical. And here’s where we are now:

He’s taking a ton of walks. 16% of his plate appearances. More walks than any time in his career except the shortened 1995 season. And he’s got no power.

Now, he’s not in Vidro territory…
Griffey 09: .213/.336/.369
Vidro 08: .234/.274/.338
… though it’s a little depressing to think the husk of Vidro’s career was a better contact hitter than Griffey is now.

While we’re looking at lines
Griffey 09: .213/.336/.369
AL 09: .268/.339/.428

But here’s his batting average on balls in play, a good measure of how hard he’s hitting the ball, from Fangraphs:

BABIP:

And here’s his raw power for a second look at that:

ISO:

Yeah, Griffey’s been injured on and off, but that’s the normal curve of a player getting old. They take more pitches, both from experience and because they can’t make swing and make good contact on more pitches than before.

BB%

Here’s the problem, though: this version of Griffey, a patient low-contact hitter with minimal power against right-handers, who we’re really pulling to finish the season hitting .250/.360/.420… he’s the third-best hitter on the team.

Behind Ichiro! who is awesome and Branyan, who as Dave notes has had his share of luck so far. And Branyan might still get traded. And Endy Chavez, not far behind, is another likely trade candidate. Wlad’s not hitting lately. Beltre should start hitting any minute. Like now would be good. No rush. Please? Seriously, Adrian, we’ve been manning the barricades for you for years, and our resolve is waning.

The good thing is DH is pretty easy to solve. You want a LH bat? Call up Clement. If the M’s want to hang in the race, they’re going to have to figure out how to get production out of that position for the fourth time since Ibanez moved back to left field after 2005 (though the 07 Vidro was at least above league average).

Comments

35 Responses to “Griffey done and an anchor of the lineup”

  1. joser on May 31st, 2009 9:04 am

    Man, this WordPress theme doesn’t do those graphs any favors. Maybe you could use thumbnails that fit into the center column, and link them to the full-size graph images?

  2. diderot on May 31st, 2009 9:08 am

    Call up Clement. If the M’s want to hang in the race

    Doesn’t this move make just as much sense if we, on the other hand, decide to punt the rest of the season?

    Adrian, we’ve been manning the barricades for you for years, and our resolve is waning.

    With Boras involved, I know this is a pipe dream, but if he continues to struggle at the break, could it (please) be possible to sign him at a steep discount for the next three years? I know they love Tui, but still…

  3. Axtell on May 31st, 2009 9:55 am

    It’s my understanding that part of the reason for bringing Griffey back was to boost attendance. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I don’t think I remember reading anything about a substantial boost in attendance (although I might be wrong).

    It’s been obvious all season he’s walking a ton and has no bat left in him. It’s sad, really, to watch one of the greatest bats in Mariners history come to this end.

    The M’s have to address this, though I don’t know how you get Griffey to sign off on taking even less playing time. He’s been (at least in public) the idea teammate, no chirping, I’m just hoping that cutting his playing time further doesn’t get ugly.

  4. diderot on May 31st, 2009 10:01 am

    Yes, the attendance thing has been talked about quite a lot, and I think from a business standpoint it was entirely logical for the front office.
    But at some point, nostalgia gives way to the desire to win.
    The question is, when do we reach that tipping point?

  5. JMHawkins on May 31st, 2009 10:06 am

    I was just thinking last night that it’s depressing seeing Junior like this. On the pregame, they were showing him making running catches in the outfield and, well, it made me feel old.

    With Boras involved, I know this is a pipe dream, but if he continues to struggle at the break, could it (please) be possible to sign him at a steep discount for the next three years? I know they love Tui, but still…

    Beltre is still an awesome fielder, and is actually having his best seasons with the glove since he joined the M’s. He’s probably +10-20 runs on Defense for the next couple of years. Unless he’s just completely forgotten how to hit, he’s still overall at least a +3 wins guy. At that rate, he’s worth $12M or so a year. If the rest of the league undervalues defense on the FA market, maybe we could get a deal, but speaking of deals…

    Tui should be a 1 to 2 win guy. He’ll be “worth” between $4M and $8M but make under half a million, so frankly, Tui is likely to be net at least + $3.5M in value, maybe more.

    If Boras is willing to deal, it’ll be a tough call. If he insists on top dollar/long-term (Beltre turned 30 opening week)… And the danger is, if Beltre doesn’t turn it around soon, we wouldn’t get any compensation picks if we don’t re-sign him.

  6. scraps on May 31st, 2009 10:06 am

    Beltre, by the way, is one of the main pieces of evidence recently for the Contract Year with his stellar 2004. Now that he’s struggling in his next Contract Year, do you suppose the people who brought it up last time will bring it up now?

  7. joser on May 31st, 2009 10:09 am

    The anticipated “Griffey effect” is not so much about a boost in attendance as it is about preventing an even more drastic erosion than they were already anticipating — due to last year’s record, the economy, and local corporate woes (don’t think WaMu is going to be signing up for suites). Of course it’s impossible to separate Griffey’s impact from the effect of a strong Win-Loss record in April, but if the team ends up at 2M or better, it has to be considered a positive given the trendline coming into this season. I suspect ownership does know exactly how many “Griffey” jerseys and other merch was sold, however.

    And really — and I say this as someone opposed to the Griffey signing last year — if he’s the third-best hitter on the team, shouldn’t the priority be replacing all the players who are even worse?

  8. Breadbaker on May 31st, 2009 10:11 am

    As far as attendance, after a 101 loss season and in the midst of a bad recession, one would assume it would drop. Griffey may be partially responsible if it has not. So what?

    With the current roster, he’s not only the third best hitter, Sweeney has not been reliably healthy and no one else on the bench has any kind of bat at all. I’d love to diagnose Griffey with a sore groin (that wss Randy’s joke, yes?) and bring up Clement. Maybe Griffey can have a hot week or two with some rest. Maybe Clement will make us forget he’s on the roster.

  9. JMHawkins on May 31st, 2009 10:14 am

    On the pregame, they were showing him making running catches in the outfield

    Oh, I should clarify, those were clips from the old days, before he went to Cincy and got old.

  10. joser on May 31st, 2009 10:16 am

    Beltre, by the way, is one of the main pieces of evidence recently for the Contract Year with his stellar 2004. Now that he’s struggling in his next Contract Year, do you suppose the people who brought it up last time will bring it up now?

    Of course not. Why let actual data get in the way of something you just know to be true?

  11. JMHawkins on May 31st, 2009 10:26 am

    Beltre, by the way, is one of the main pieces of evidence recently for the Contract Year with his stellar 2004. Now that he’s struggling in his next Contract Year, do you suppose the people who brought it up last time will bring it up now?

    Sure, his terrible performance is obviously evidence that he’s “pressing” because of the Contract Year. It’s probably Ichiro’s fault somehow.

  12. Typical Idiot Fan on May 31st, 2009 11:04 am

    This will probably earn me a lifetime ban, but egads, DMZ, i dread your posts. This analysis has been circulating the interwebs for months now. Your post about the site getting exploited was bush-league. More Cat Videos please. I can go to Fangraphs for this type of shit.

    (hoping everybody gets the joke…)

  13. Breadbaker on May 31st, 2009 11:08 am

    Where’s Conor Glassey when you need him?

  14. zjmuglidny on May 31st, 2009 11:13 am

    Unless the Ms’ get back in the race I don’t mind if Griffey stays in the line-up as the primary DH for the rest of this year. Especially if they deal Bedard and Washburn, in effect conceding 2009. It would be nice to Clement get some more big league reps, but having Griffey go out playing as a Mariner is worth the few possible extra losses in a season where they aren’t going anywhere anyway.

    If Griffey wants to stick around past this year… well, then its a different story.

  15. DMZ on May 31st, 2009 11:14 am

    Wow, that’s brave.

  16. Tek Jansen on May 31st, 2009 11:17 am

    Despite the fact that local media always insisted that the Griffey signing was a PR move, at 2.5 mil plus incentives, it wasn’t a bad baseball move. It wasn’t necessarily good, but at least neutral. Wak has done a great job of keeping Griffey out of the field and moving him around in the lineup.

    The reason he remains near the top of the lineup is due to the unfortunate fact that, for most of the season, he has been one of the M’s better hitters.

    I have every confidence that Wak and Zduriencik will manage the Griffey and DH situation appropriately.

  17. Paul B on May 31st, 2009 11:21 am

    Unless Griffer finds the fountain of youth in June or July, the upside of this is that the M’s won’t feel pressure to sign him for 2010.

  18. Dylan on May 31st, 2009 11:45 am

    The NPV of the project was positive. Can’t fault them for making an economic decision. You had to pay someone to fill the spot anyways, why not get someone who is going to generate revenues above what you would have projected?

  19. Earl of Tacoma on May 31st, 2009 11:52 am

    The whole Griffey thing was a great idea–5 years ago. If there’s one thing the M’s have proven over the years it’s that nothing sells better than winning. Griffey may have been a draw the first week in April but I’d like to hear of 1 person who is buying a ticket to see him now. There are only two good reasons for a player to be on the roster, to help the team win now or to prepare to win in the future. He’s neither of these and nostalgia is not enough. Old timers should play exhibitions before the game, not hold a starting position during the game. This situation is only a little less sad than watching “The Wrestler.”

  20. juneau_fan on May 31st, 2009 12:06 pm

    Unless the Ms’ get back in the race I don’t mind if Griffey stays in the line-up as the primary DH for the rest of this year. Especially if they deal Bedard and Washburn, in effect conceding 2009. It would be nice to Clement get some more big league reps, but having Griffey go out playing as a Mariner is worth the few possible extra losses in a season where they aren’t going anywhere anyway.

    I’m sure my reaction is because I didn’t see Griffey play here and don’t have that attachment. And I moved home to AK the year Ichiro signed, so I understand being strongly attached to a player, but if Ichiro was up there, hitting like Griffey, I’d want him off the team. (Actually, I’d assume the Ichiro would retire rather than hit that line, but we’ll see when the time comes.)

    I’m sorry, I want to see the team win. I don’t need them to win the division, but I watch every game, beginning to end. I want to at least be entertained. And a middle-aged guy up there with a pot-belly, hitting flyballs with RISP, isn’t entertaining to me; I don’t give a damn what name is on the back of the jersey.

  21. eponymous coward on May 31st, 2009 12:14 pm

    I, for one, am shocked to find out that investing in veterans on the tail end of their career as a DH, and with clear signs of being in a decline phase hasn’t worked yet again, just like how it didn’t work with Jose Vidro and Carl Everett.

    And on that note, Jason Giambi has pretty much turned out to be a similar level of bad in Oakland (.219/.359/.355), as THEIR reclamation project at DH. And Billy Beane’s a pretty smart guy, so I don’t blame GMZ for taking a shot.

    As for replacing Griffey… well, that’s the downside of signing The Hometown Hero for the last go-around, GMZ gets to be the one who tells him “we’re benching you for the guy from AAA”. Personally, I think keeping him on the roster as a bench player would be fine if you could figure out a way of doing it, or maybe Griffey needs to go on the DL for suckitis until September when rosters expand and he can do his final curtain call.

  22. DMZ on May 31st, 2009 12:17 pm

    Yeah… there’s a ton of analysis on the value of a win, and while it’s true that below where a team’s perceived as “awful” it doesn’t matter, and those wins from 85+ matter a lot, it’s also true that there’s a per-win payback for the team. Fans who go to see the team lose, even in a good season, go away disappointed. Maybe that’s okay if they see another win, or watch some good games at home, but when the casual Mariner fan who goes 3-5 times a year sees the team lose every time, that’s a real problem. Every win counts — not just in the standings, but in the long-term success of the team. If replacing Griffey makes the M’s better and they win more games in a lost season, they should still do it.

  23. Dylan on May 31st, 2009 12:23 pm

    I don’t disagree at all DMZ. The thing is, there may be fans who show up just to see Griffey and would never have gone in the first place. Plus, what kind of revenues are they generating off jersey sales, etc.? I can guarantee there are a lot more shirts selling with “Griffey” on the back then there are “Branyan”, regardless of their talent levels.

  24. DMZ on May 31st, 2009 12:25 pm

    Oh, absolutely. I should have pointed out in cases like this the connection’s a lot more complicated.

  25. moethedog on May 31st, 2009 12:32 pm

    One word…

    Carp!

    (he’s the answer!) (and if anyone thought we’ld be getting a Griffey who was a lot better than this…they need to lay off the Kool Aid) (although there is a value to Griffey in the club house, I think…It doesn’t cover his lack ov value on the field)

    Keith

  26. CC03 on May 31st, 2009 1:53 pm

    I’m for trading Branyan by the deadline. There are two kids in AAA that could find playing time at 1B(Carp and Clement), and Branyan is obviously over-performing, not too mention he’s up there in age.

    Bedard
    Washburn
    Branyan

    I’d start with that going into the trade deadline.

  27. SeasonTix on May 31st, 2009 5:34 pm

    If you don’t think Griffey has a positive impact on the casual baseball fan (and I count myself in that group) you have not been to a game at Safeco Field this year.

    EVERY time Griffey comes to the plate he gets a tremendous ovation, far more than any other player on the team — including Ichiro.

    Every time he swings, camera flashes go off all over the stadium.

    Sure he’s not playing well right now, but I like seeing him in an M’s uniform.

    It’s likely seeing an old friend at a high school or college reunion … you don’t look at the balding fat guy and think “man, what the hell happened to you!” You think back to the “good old days” and relive them in your mind.

    That’s how I feel when I see Number 24 come to the plate.

    I think back to all the other great moments I had watching him play in the Kingdome. I remember watching him hit 3 home runs in one game. I remember watching him racing around the bases when Edgar hit “The Double” — I’d never seen him or anybody else run the bases that fast!

    So just watching Griffey standing at the plate wiggling his bat in anticipation of a pitch is good enough for me. If he gets a hit, that’s just icing on the cake.

    I know that flies in the face of everything this site is about, but I wanted to express the view of the “casual fan” since most of you are not in that category and don’t understand how many of us feel.

  28. SeasonTix on May 31st, 2009 5:39 pm

    Oh, and I forgot to mention the merchandise sales.

    If you go to Safeco, you will see Griffey jerseys and T-shirts all over the place. His stuff easily outsells Ichiro and every other player on the team.

    There’s no doubt he’s had a major impact on the casual baseball fans in Seattle.

    I just wish he’d hit a few more HR’s and RBI’s. 😉

  29. DMZ on May 31st, 2009 5:39 pm

    I’ve been at Safeco Field for games where he doesn’t get a tremendous ovation for each at bat.

  30. SeasonTix on May 31st, 2009 5:43 pm

    DMZ, I’m surprised to hear that.

    He’s always gotten WAY more response than any of the other M’s players at the games I’ve been to this year.

    But I’ve only been to a few games so far this year … we just have the weekend ticket plan (Fri,Sat,Sun games) and we give away a lot of our tickets to business clients.

  31. Steve T on May 31st, 2009 11:13 pm

    That’s why we play the games, right? For the random, may-or-may-not-be ovations.

  32. TranquilPsychosis on May 31st, 2009 11:56 pm

    EVERY time Griffey comes to the plate he gets a tremendous ovation, far more than any other player on the team — including Ichiro.

    Actually it seems to be quite the opposite for me. People do cheer for jr, but it seems to me that the cheers for Ichiro!(that selfish prick) are louder and longer. Is it the Japanese fans only that are hooting and hollering for him?

  33. mark s on June 1st, 2009 2:44 am

    I have seen Griffey before games giving away autographs and giving a few words to fans around the dugout.

    In one game there was a little girl at her “very first baseball game ever”. He joked with the girl and her mom for a few minutes. Griffey told her to hang on and he would be right back. A few minutes later he came back and gave the little girl an autographed bat! It was a wonderful moment. The crowd around him clapped and the mother and daughter beamed with happiness. He made two baseball fans for life in that moment.

    “Hall of Fame Mariner Ken Griffey Junior” is giving fans a reason to come to the park and a reason to smile. Griffey is doing his job.

    I hate that Griffey’s numbers are Vidro-like. I hate that he isn’t going to have that “one more good year” that many people hoped for. I hate that so many will walk away disappointed by this team and another losing seasoning.

    But I will not blame Griffey or the Mariners for bringing Junior back.

  34. DMZ on June 1st, 2009 7:22 am

    No one’s blaming him. I’m not sure why you’d think that. And for what they paid him, I don’t think it was a bad baseball decision to gamble on it.

    That doesn’t change where we are now, though.

  35. mark s on June 1st, 2009 6:56 pm

    DMZ,

    I know you were just providing information and analysis that I have been so grateful to read over the last several years.

    My comment was directed more to those people that would hold something against Griffey for not “giving it his all” and producing better results. Griffey is simply done as an everyday baseball player.
    I believe Griffey is adding to the club. It is just a shame it isn’t on the field.

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