Bedard’s upcoming Elias ranking
Besides, Bedard is likely headed to Type A free-agent status. You’ll likely get two high draft picks for him if he leaves as a free-agent at season’s end. It would take quite a haul to pry him away from Seattle in June, I’d suspect. We’ll know the answer to that in three weeks or less.
It’s possible, but he’s a lot farther than likely. Here’s the Elias system, as best I know it. You take everyone’s two-year stats in a bunch of categories, and assign everyone ordinal ranks. Then you add that all up.
For starters, I believe it’s total games (as starts + 1/2 relief appearances), IP, Wins, W/L percentage, ERA, strikeouts. Then the top 20 percent get rated A, 21-40 percent are B, and then everyone else bites it.
Bedard only got 6 wins last year (68th in the AL among all pitchers), his win percentage was 60%, his ERA was 3.67, and 72 K put him at 70th among all pitchers. Bedard gets helped a little by his decent rate stats and hurt by getting killed on counting stats.
For 2009, he looks great — among qualified starters, he’s #12 in wins, his win percentage looks great, he’s 4th on ERA, and 9th in K.
To be an ‘A’ Bedard needs not only to pitch a lot (which… yeah), and do really well (which he’s entirely capable of). Or think of this another way: how many pitchers can you name quickly that will end up ahead of him when rated over two years on all those stats? You only have to get to the top 20%, because the ratings include all pitchers. When I rattled off a list this morning while discussing this on the Mariners Blogosphere Conspiracy Conference Call, it was
Burnett, Halladay, Meche (I can’t even believe that i just typed that), Greinke, Beckett, Lee, Floyd, Sabathia, Shields, Millwood, Joba probably, Garza, Jered Weaver maybe?, Edwin Jackson, Marcum (?), Wakefield…
That’s 16 I can name off the top of my head. And as much as Bedard might do well on the rate stats, there are going to be some random starters out there who luck into getting ranked well on the wins, say, or with fluky ERAs.
So I asked Eddie, who’s been working on this over at Tiger Thoughts, and he said yup, Bedard’s in the middle of the Type Bs.
Which is better than being in the others. And he’s talented… but say he pitches with the M’s the rest of the year. He needs to stay lucky on wins and win percent, stay healthy, and you’re still going to be crossing your fingers that he sneaks up to the last spot on the Type A list.
Now, I know this, and the M’s know this, and I would bet the brain trust already sent someone out to project this and see what the chances are that Bedard ends up as a Type A. And maybe they talked to Baker and gave him the nudge nudge that they’re expecting a little something, wanted to get that aired for other teams to note as well…. but it’s a tall order. Given the way it’s calculated, and who’s ahead of him, I don’t see how he’s a likely Type A.