Draft Stuff
So, the draft is tomorrow. Thanks to MLB trying to get it more publicity, they’ve split it into three days, with the first three rounds taking place tomorrow evening. The draft kicks off at 3 pm Seattle time. And, just for fun, the Mariners-Orioles game starts at 4 pm Seattle time. Apparently, MLB is not content with forcing us to deal with just draft-related traffic (which always crashes the server), but also wants us to have to deal with a game going on at the same time. Awesome.
So, yea, there probably won’t be a game thread tomorrow. And as always, we’ll ask that you please be kind to the blog – don’t just sit there and pound refresh waiting for updates. MLB.com is going to be streaming the whole thing live, and if you really need to get up-to-the-minute picks via a website, nuke their servers, not ours.
As for what the M’s are expected to do, here’s what I’ve gathered this morning.
Dustin Ackley is still the strong favorite to go #2. There’s a chance they could take Aaron Crow or Tyler Matzek instead, but Ackley is a good bet to be the pick.
At #27, the M’s will have a chance to select a premium arm if they want to gamble on signability a bit. Kyle Gibson was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his forearm, so there’s a chance he slides to #27. Likewise, Tanner Scheppers, James Paxton, and Matt Purke are asking for more money than teams want to give them, so they don’t have an obvious home in the first round right now. The front office will have a player on the board that shouldn’t be there on talent. If the rumors about a pre-draft deal being struck with Steven Baron are true, then the M’s will be saving money at #33, and could overpay at #27 while still being able to keep their total draft budget under control. That seems to be the path that most expect the M’s to travel.
However, that’s not a lock. Last week, I mentioned that I had heard high school shortstop Nick Franklin attached to the M’s at #51. As of this morning, I was told that he probably won’t last that long, so the M’s may consider him at #27 or #33. As a left-handed hitting middle infielder with some power and defensive skills, he’d provide something the organization badly lacks currently.
It will be interesting to see what transpires tomorrow. As long as you all let us keep the blog alive, we’ll provide analysis throughout the draft.
What would Franklin’s cost look like? If the Mariners took him at 33 instead of Baron would they still be able to go way over slot on 27 or is Franklin too expensive?
It doesn’t seem like Franklin would be that expensive since most sites have him ranked in the 50-80 range. Even if we move him up to the forties, I still think he’d be below slot at 33. I assume that would mean we’d take Baron at 51 where he’d be below slot too. Still, above slot at 27 and slightly below at 33 and 51 should make for a strong draft.
Dave, In your mind if Scheppers/Purke/Paxton type aren’t there could they pop a guy like Arnett/Storen and not have to go below slot at 33? That is, take guys at slot at 27 and 33 and then pop Baron at 51?
I would love Franklin. That would make my day to get Ackley, Franklin, and either of the top arms mentioned.
Just a gentle reminder about the uncertainties of the draft. They mentioned on the broadcast yesterday that Griffey was the last of the first round picks from 1987 still playing in the majors. That’s true. The weird thing is that there is only one other member of his draft class still active: Brad Ausmus is still playing (for what he’s worth) and he was selected in the 48th round. There were entire rounds of players selected earlier than Ausmus who never made the major leagues. You just can’t tell.
MLB is just stupid. They say they want to bring more attention to the draft. They have a day — today — when just nine games are being played. It’s a travel day for basketball and hockey, so there’s zero competition from the NBA or NHL finals, and minimal competition from their own product. So what day do? They schedule the start of the draft, the high profile top rounds, for tomorrow. Right into the teeth of the Lakers and the Red Wings and all the other baseball games. You couldn’t find a better way to bury the draft and ensure it gets minimal attention.
They did a pretty good job with MLB TV but really: this league is run by morons.
But back to the M’s. You know what? No matter what happens, I have a lot of faith in this front office, and this is going to be fun. I especially look forward to people tracking down tidbits about the oddball 6+ round picks.
Posnanski has a good run-down of all the pitchers ever taken #1 in the draft. It’s not a particularly memorable bunch.
And then there’s always Pujols in the 13th round and Smoltz in the 22nd…
I don’t have any reason to defend the MLB, but I don’t imagine the MLB could have known that both an NBA finals game and a Stanley Cup final game would be played on the same evening. As for having the draft today, traditionally speaking, Monday just isn’t a good day for TV.
Mike Piazza, 63rd round. The Hall of Fame says, “Hi!”
I think they should take Ackley since he seems to be the “surest” thing in the draft.If that exists at all. Pitchers are too much of an uncertainty. Looking at the Pitchers drafted #1 (thanks to Joser)makes me think that even Strasburg is not a sure think.
They mentioned on the broadcast yesterday that Griffey was the last of the first round picks from 1987 still playing in the majors. That’s true.
CRIS CARPENTER ?
There were two. That was has not pitched in the MLB since 1996.
Not the same guy John.
The “real” Chris Carpenter was 12 years old when the 1987 draft happened. A 1993 selection in the first round by the Blue Jays.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4521019 Has a video of Nick Franklin.
I like the idea of an infielder in the system. I think it’s a weakness now and with another OF in the first round, adding some infield depth would be nice.
Griffey was a high schooler, and he’s 40 years old. The college guys from that year are 42. It’s really not a surprise that a given draft didn’t produce a major leaguer who lasted into his 40s. There are only 9 guys over 40 in baseball this year, and 2 of them were international signings.
The draft is fickle. Of that there is no doubt. That there are only 2 guys from the 1987 crop still in the majors, however, is not a good example of why.