Draft Day Reading
Draft Day is finally here, and in about six hours, we’ll find out who the M’s have selected with the 2nd pick in the draft.
To tide yourself over, here’s a series of draft related links to read until then.
I’ve got a Wall Street Journal piece on how various teams have done drafting pitchers in the last 20 years or so.
My FanGraphs post for the afternoon is called “The Case for Dustin Ackley”, where I argue that perhaps the Nationals should consider Ackley with the first pick in the draft. It’s going to get me called an idiot by a lot of people, but I think there’s a legitimate argument to be made for going the safe route. Their fans would riot, though.
Baseball America has a bunch of good stuff for their subscribers: Is Strasburg the best ever?, the poor track record of college arms, and Jim Callis’ latest mock draft. Their draft blog is free, and will be updated with news throughout the day as well.
Keith Law has his draft morning notes on ESPN’s draft blog for Insiders, as well as his latest mock draft.
Larry Stone does his thing summing up the news of the past few days.
And finally, don’t forget you can view reports and video on most of the guys drafted today at MLB.com’s draft central. They’ll also have live video of the draft as it occurs.
As a reminder, we’re not having a game thread tonight, since the draft and the M’s-O’s game run concurrently (thanks MLB!). I’ll have a draft reaction post up, though we might turn off comments if the load on the site gets too rough. I’ll also be live blogging the draft over at FanGraphs, so if USSM goes down, you’ll know where to find me.
I don’t think anyone is afraid of a mob that’s only 30 strong.
I’m actually glad we’ll be (purportedly) picking Ackley, mostly for the points Dave makes in the Fangraphs post and also the history of pitchers selected with the #1 overall pick that Joe Posnanski reviews here (towards the end of the post).
No draft pick is a safe bet but in my crude opinion, Ackley seems less likely to fail than Strasburg.
The more I hear about Ackley the more I like him. Plus, there is little chance we draft Ackley and move him to the bullpen .
Callis’s latest draft has Grant Green falling entirely out of the first round. I doubt this will happen, but do you think the Ms would pop him at 27 if they’re planning on taking a fallen tough sign guy?
I’m quite happy with the ‘safe’ Ackley. Of course Strasburg would be great, but its not like we arent getting a great player.
I think the M’s are in a no-lose situation with the #2 pick … they don’t have to worry about paying big bucks to Strasburg if he flames out, and if he does turn into the next Cy Young, nobody can blame the M’s for not picking him because they didn’t have the #1 pick.
By taking Strasburg off the table, it makes the draft day job MUCH easier for the M’s to go with the “safe” pick of Ackley.
If Bavasi was still in charge, I wouldn’t be so sure… (“He’s the anti-Ankiel! Trust me!”
Look at it this way: he’s already had TJ surgery, so that’s behind us from the start!
I think we will see:
#2 Aaron Crow
#27 Kyle Gibson
#33 Steve Baron
This site will melt down with more curse words than Ozzie Guillen can deliver in a game.
The odds of the M’s passing on Ackley right now are about 0.01%.
Is that because Tyler Matzek making outrageous demand out of HS? Crow could be had for 4.5M, compared to 7M for Ackley. Maybe they think they can use the 2.5M they save on #2 to load up on the #27 pick. It’d be a bad strategy, but I would believe Ackley is a Mariner when Selig makes the announcement in about 2.5 hours.
No, it’s because Ackley is the second-best player in the draft. The Mariners are not trying to save money with the second pick, and the idea of scrimping at #2 to max out your budget at #27 has to be the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.
I hope you’re right Dave, but every time I read something like Goldstein’s mock (which has a snippet about Ackley possibly asking for eight figures and the M’s maybe looking at Tate or Scheppers) I get a bit worried. I’ll be a lot happier in an hour and a half or so when Ackley is officially in the fold.
He’s not in the fold until we sign him, and he shares at least one thing with Stephen Strasburg: he’s a Boras client. The Mariners have some tough negotiations ahead regarding Ackley and I suspect we will pay $7-8M before it’s all done. Perhaps even more annoying in my mind is that the protracted negotiation will prevent Ackley from being able to play half a season in A ball. That would be worthwhile developmental time and would give us a good sense of his starting place in 2010. I’m hoping he’s ready next fall or in 2011.
The Mariners have been connected to Scheppers because their scouts have been at a lot of his games. That doesn’t mean he’s a target with the #2 pick. The mock at Baseball America had Scheppers falling out of the first round, which would be right in line with what Dave has been saying about this draft. Interestingly, Tyler Matzek is crashing down draft boards because of bonus demands, and the Mariners have been linked to him as well. I think there is a very good chance the Mariners see a top 10 talent at #27.
i noticed Grant Green at this time is looking to drop into possibly the sandwich round and even maybe further into the second round. Do you think they will pass on Nick Franklin for Green or are they really that high on Franklin? I’m just looking forward for them actually getting a solid middle infielder out of this draft.
Homi-
apparently the Mariners are lukewarm on Grant Green in any case, they’re much higher on Franklin.
I think we’re going to see:
#2- Ackley, 1B-OF
#27- Paxton, LHP
#33- Mier, SS
#51- Baron, C
If Scheppers or Crow were available at #27, one of them would get the tab, but I think Arnett, Scheppers and Crow are all off the board by #27. Only Paxton and Gibson slide down quite that far.
I think the M’s would be ecstatic if Mier were still available at #33, and just won’t resist pouncing- knowing that one of several backstops like Baron, Bailey, Meyer, et al- can be had at #51.
Hee hee. Geeking on the draft again. Forgive me fellas- it’s a weakness.
M’s draft Ackley.
dang there goes crow and green
Both Crow (KC) and Green (OAK) went to small market teams. It’ll be interesting to see how the bonus demands work out. It’s possible Green is back in the draft next year. Otherwise… I do not look forward to hearing about Oakland’s new phenom SS in a couple of years, unless they’re already sick to death hearing about how many runs their pitchers have given up to Ackley.