More on Bedard’s ranking
Baker writes at some length about why he thinks Bedard’s going to be a Type A in responding to “comments” and ups his prediction:
Taking all that into account, there is an excellent chance Bedard qualifies for Type A free-agency next November. It doesn’t matter where he ranks at present-time, because that ranking is skewed by an incomplete 2008. As long as Bedard stays on the mound, he should be fine. Rarely will things be a slam dunk like they were with Raul Ibanez. But in this case, as long as Bedard makes it to the mound, goes six innings and does what he’s been doing, he will make that elite cut. He might even increase his projected wins and winning percentage now that the Mariners are scoring a few more runs.
Now we’re to “excellent” chance?
I’d like first to just cross-apply the previous arguments, which are still entirely applicable. I’m not sure exactly what he’s arguing here, except that he both understands how they’re done and… doesn’t.
But the two-year thing… Bedard barely, barely made the cut last year, and Baker’s making the argument that all he has to do is match the 07-08 two-year performance to be an A.
Okay. But the rankings count wins and win percentage. In 2007, Bedard went 13-5 for a .722 win percentage. What are the chances he’s going to get there with this M’s team? Eight wins I can see, but this M’s team is legitimately terrible offensively. He’s not going to go the rest of the year losing only three games. In 2007, Bedard struck out 221 batters — he’s pitching well this year, but he’s not going to get there. Check out the single-season win-loss leaderboards: the best and luckiest starters in each league don’t get much higher than that. Why, in 2006 no one in the NL managed a .722. Takes a lot to get there.
And on and on… that Bedard’s composite 2007-2008 line got him at the tail end of the A players is a persuasive argument for how steep the mountain he has to climb this season. Given how bad, ranking-wise, his 08 was, he had to have it taken alongside the best year of his career, where he got lucky not taking losses, in order to be at the back of the pack.
Anyway, as I said last time, it could happen. But it’s a lot more difficult than Baker seems to believe it is, even if Bedard continues to pitch well the rest of the year.