Branyan’s Regression
Over the last couple of weeks, both here and at FanGraphs, I pointed out that Russell Branyan was due for some regression. In April, his batting average on balls in play was .405. In May, it was .391. Those are just not sustainable numbers, regardless of how well you’re swinging the bat. The normal range of true talent BABIP is something like .260 to .360, with slow sluggers on the low end and slap-hitting speedsters on the high side. There was just no way that Branyan was going to keep posting a .390 BABIP.
And, we were totally right. Branyan’s BABIP in June has crashed down to a more normal .316. Take a look at how it’s affected his monthly totals:
April: .333/.415/.614
May: .317/.412/.614
June: .290/.410/.613
Hilariously, Branyan has responded to the regression in his ball in play hit rate by cutting down on his strikeouts and hitting the crap out of the ball, even more so than earlier in the season. As you can see, it would have been basically impossible for him to be any more consistent in his OBP/SLG performance by month, even if the way he’s getting there changed.
Branyan has been everything we hoped Jeff Clement would turn into, but with better defense at first base. For all the consternation of Clement’s lack of development/injury problems/whatever, we’ve got a guy who is continuing to prove that he’s one of the better left-handed power hitters in the game. This signing couldn’t have possibly worked out any better.
I’ve heard a lot of talk around here about Branyan being a great chip to trade to another team in the next month, but I also see that Russell is pretty much what we’re looking for in a 1B.
I understand selling off at the peak of the market, June and July, and then re-buying after the season, allows for some great profit. But can anyone speak to how you would decide who is worth signing long term vs who you flip for someone else?
How awesome would it be if Branyan puts up 40HRs and 40 doubles? If he does it… he has to be one of the best FA signings in M’s history.
The only reluctance I would have about signing Branyan long-term is his age. I think it’s justifiable to worry that he’ll do a Sexsonesque crash to earth in another year or two. For that reason, I’d still support trading him this year and moving to one of our younger options in Tacoma.
I’m going to take this opportunity to suck it up and acknowledge that I could not have been more wrong about Mr. Branyan. I’m a douchebag. Branyan is awesome.
What I’d love to know is whether this is a fluke or genius. When we signed Scott Spiezio to play third base, our GM had as much knowledge of him and his skills (or at least as much opportunity to learn, whether or not he learned) as Zduriencik had of Branyan, if not more. In both cases, it was taking someone and asking them to do things they’d never had to do on the field and at bat. In the one case, classic crash and burn, and in the other, the stuff Ring Lardner stories were made of.
Isn’t Branyan already showing old player skills?
I love the guy, but wasn’t a big part of the M’s problem over the last eight years holding on to players too long?
If we can get something good for him – trade him.
And for all the talk of ‘trade him then resign him’ – how often does that actually happen?
And if it’s a ‘type A’ guy, wouldn’t the team you trade him to be taking your first round pick if you resigned him? So what would be the point in that? You’d have to get a pretty good haul for him for the ‘trade & resign’ to make any sense.
Feel free to correct me, because I might just be missing something here.
The difference there would appear to be Bavasi v Zduriencik, no?
I’m not sure he’s showing “old player skills”…
He’s never been terribly agile in the field, but he’s ok. It’s not like his bat speed is gone. For me, it’s hard to find “old player skills” in a 1.000+ OPS. Is that even possible?
If we’re in the race, we’re not going to trade him. If we plummet out of it in July, it will be interesting to see if Z can pull off the trade and re-sign trick. My feeling is that they are pretty loyal to each other at this point. How can they not be?
Knock on wood.
There is no way that Branyan would be a type a free agent this year. If he did this again next year then he probably would.
It’s nice to see a guy my age who’s had a thoroughly mediocre MLB career be given a chance and respond like this. I hope he keeps it up for his and the Mariners’ sake (or whatever team he winds up with).
He’s already just 26 hits shy of his single-season record (2002, 86 hits in 378 AB vs. 60 hits in 189 AB this season). Just wish he’d get more opportunities with guys on base.
How can Russell Branyan be a type A free agent? He didn’t play enough last year. So trade him and sign him back after the season ends won’t result in the M’s giving up any draft picks.
Now, the tricky thing is if we trade him, who in our farm system can out perform Branyan next year? Even if Branyan regresses to his career .829 OPS next year, he’s still a much better bet to succeed than Carp, Shelton or Clement next year. I wouldn’t mind signing Branyan to a 2 year $14M deal. I don’t think I would commit more than 2 years to him. With Delgado and others hitting FA this off season, I don’t see Russell getting a 3 year contract from anyone else. So bring him back next year.
To me the most amazing thing about Branyan this year is his line against LHP. His 2009 slash line against lefties is
.290 / .384 / .532
His career line, which includes this year, is
.219 / .303 / .462
Remarkably, he only has 402 PAs against lefties in his entire career (out of 2543 PAs total) which is actually still inside the 500 PA mark where OBP, SLG, and OPS become reliable. That a veteran with more than ten seasons of playing time still has an uncertain quantity of that importance is, well, remarkable. And 74 (18%) of those PAs were this year; last year, he had just 14. His previous highs were 62 in 2002 (when he went .233 / .258 / .583 against them) and 51 in 2001 (when he went .325 / .451 / .775). So there’s (SSS) evidence that he hits LHP better when he gets regular ABs against them, yet somehow he got pigeonholed as a platoon guy and was only given an average of about 35 PAs per seasoon against LHP (granted, some seasons he didn’t get a lot of appearances against RHP either).
But I think we have to credit Zduriencik for looking at these numbers and seeing that Branyan may have been sold a little short. I’ll refer once again to the Seattle Times piece on the Branyan signing, in which Zduriencik said
That span so far this year includes April, May, and June.
I certainly think we should deal him if we can get solid prospects in return, but I’m also a big advocate of trying to sign him in the off-season to a one or two-year deal as well. As mentioned above by Pete, it’s a trick that’s not easy to pull off, but I’d think it’s at least worth a shot.
kenshabby, my thoughts exactly. Nice to see an underrated guy get a chance and succeed. Hoping he can keep it going, too.
Yuniesky Betancourt, meet Russel Branyan, a professional baseball player.
I’m not sure what type of free agent Branyan would be for compensation purposes, but if he keeps this up all year, I would totally offer him arbitration. At this stage of his career, he’s perfect for having on a succession of one-year contracts until age-related decline sets in.
I admit it might be an emotional reaction on my part, but I’d be looking to build around Branyan rather than deal him. I wouldn’t call him untouchable, but unless someone knocks Zduriencik’s socks off with an offer, I hope we keep him around for a few years. No 5- or 6-year contract, certainly, but a nice 3-year deal. I don’t know that Branyan will ever have another year to match this one, but I don’t think it’s a fluke, either — I’d bet he stays reasonably close to this level of performance for the next few years, anyway.
and really, who would know that Spiezio would have his mid-life crisis at age 32?
Did I just hear that Dave Cameron was going to be on 710?
If he keeps hitting anything like this, we should get type-B compensation if he leaves, right?
Also, I’d like to add that Branyan’s at bats are the only ones other than Ichiro that I enjoy. His approach is light years ahead of pretty much everyone else on the team, and he never ever gives in without a fight — even to tough lefties. If Zduriencik has done anything at all to give me hope for the future as well as enjoyment in the current season, it’s to acquire hitters who don’t give their at bats away like it docked their pay for each extra pitch seen. Branyan and Gutierrez (most of the time) have the type of approach at the plate that makes me mad for having to watch the M’s hack away endlessly for the past few years. Commencing brain explosion from Bavasi anger in 3…2…1…
Oops, meant to say 2-3 year deal; unlike some, I’d be willing to go three if we need to.
Is compensation affected by arbitration? Say we offered Branyan arbitration and then let him go after next year; assuming his numbers are good enough for Type A after 2010, would we miss out on the Type A picks just because he was on an arbitrated contract?
Watching Branyan hit is like watching a better version of Buhner (hitting wise).
Griffey had the perfect swing, and the quick bat and balls just jumped off his bat, but Buhner’s homers he beat the hell out of the ball like he would the car of the guy sleeping with his wife.
But as an added bonus Branyan also hits for average which Buhner never did. And he strikes out less then Buhner did.
Still love Bone, but Branyan if he never hits a ball the rest of the season was a great, GREAT signing.
would we miss out on the Type A picks just because he was on an arbitrated contract?
No, it’s entirely a question of whether you offer arbitration again. Not getting the picks is more likely to come up when settling prior to arbitration. Some players have asked the club to agree, as part of the contract, not to offer arbitration again, so as to increase their attractiveness to other teams the next time they hit free agency.
If it seems likely that he could be a type-A guy after NEXT season seems like it might make sense to do what we can to keep him though next year in order to get the extra draft picks… ??
I’d sign Branyan for a deal that keeps him until the anticipated date that the better of Carp and Poythress takes over at first. So two years, or so, I’d guess.
Given the soft market for the left-handed 1B/DH type last year…hopefully he can be talked into signing before the year is out. But if I were him I’d probably like to test the waters.
I happened to flip the radio back to 710 as your interview with Brock and Salk started. Nice piece, and it sure made a hell of a lot more sense than the callers before you were making.
I love the idea of Bedard for Brignac and one or two more minor pieces, and it’s one I hadn’t considered myself. It’s a buy for Tampa, since they’d improve their pitching staff (which has been rather disappointing thus far), and, as you said, a combination of buying and selling for us.
What I’d love to know is whether this is a fluke or genius. When we signed Scott Spiezio to play third base, our GM had as much knowledge of him and his skills (or at least as much opportunity to learn, whether or not he learned) as Zduriencik had of Branyan, if not more.
Russell Branyan is also a perfect player for Safeco Field. His home/away split this year: 0.333/0.462/0.679 = 1.141 OPS home / 0.305/0.368/0.562 = 0.930 OPS away. We definitely need LH power hitter in our ball park. Sign Branyan for 2 more years.
Apparently, Russell Branyan wants to stay here and doesn’t want to be traded:
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlesports/archives/170679.asp?from=blog_last3
Some of his quotes about enjoying playing in Safeco, the possibility of being traded and enjoying playing for Jack Z & co:
“I hope it does. I enjoy playing here,” Branyan said before the Mariners departed for Baltimore for the start of a nine-game road trip that starts Tuesday in Baltimore.
“Some hitters shy away from this ballpark because it plays a little tough. But if I end the season having a good year, I’d love nothing more than to have the chance to come back here and keep playing.”
As for the irony that he might be hitting so well now that his increased trade stock will make him vulnerable to a deal by the Mariners?
“That would be …,” Branyan said before breaking into a wry laugh. “I don’t really have much of a comment on trades because I can’t control them. In a perfect world, would I want to be traded? No. Would I want to stay here? Yes.
“I like it here. Great teammates. Great staff. One of the best coaching staffs I’ve ever been a part of. I think with Jack here and the people making the decisions, I think everything is in place is to make some changes and put a winner on the ball field.”
Is this Bill Bavasi posting under a pseudonym? Branyan is making $1.4 million with another half million available in performance bonuses this year. You want to increase his salary 350%? Please come be my boss…
I’d offer one year with a mutual option for the second and start the total value at $6.5 million and work from there.
I would love to have him back as well, but I like the 2 year option contract idea. Who knows if he would go for it or be insulted but it’s worth a shot. I would love to keep him around, but I have learned my lesson about long term big money contracts from Sexson, Vidro, Lopez, Betancourt, Kenji, Silva, etc.
Big money long term contracts scare me. Unless it is going to Felix.
Please pay Felix!!!
Yeah, I’m pretty sure that economic woes notwithstanding, the market for .400 OBP, 30HR-hitting first basemen will net Branyan far more than a 2 year, 6.5 million dollar deal. On his current pace he’s playing like a 5 WAR player. Those guys don’t sign truly cheap deals, even if they’re in their mid-30’s. 2/14 would be a very good value if you think he can approximate his ‘09 performance over the course of the deal.
If he plays out the year, at very least he should be a type-B free agent, which is a pretty sweet pickup for less than $2 million.
But that’s the crux of the question, isn’t it? Is this what Branyan is really capable of day in and day out as a regular starter? Or is this best case, once-in-a-career Branyan? He’s already been worth 2.3 WAR this season, which is roughly a Teixeira-with-the-Rangers kind of pace and usually is enough to earn a guy an eight-digit deal. If he can keep it up over an entire season.
That would be a huge, huge step up from where he’s been at for his entire career — in both stats and dollars — but his agent will be making the case that both are legit. By the end of the season we should have a better sense of how real this all is, but of course you never know if he can repeat it.
I don’t see the M’s getting anything for him. He plays at a loaded position, is having a retarded year in respect to all his other performances, and he is 33 years old. I see him sticking around for 2010.
Without intending any disrepect to Russ Branyan or his legion of fans, Branyan is evidence that you should not sign the Russ Branyans of the world to multi-year contracts. He is another example of freely available talent. You don’t have to pay for it – you just need a GM smart enough to find it. And we certainly should not assess his future value based on his performance over the past three months.
At the risk of pressing the point too far, Brad Nelson may well be a more valuable major league player next year than Russ Branyan. If Seattle can bring Branyan back on a one-year deal at a modest salary, then there is no reason to swap him out. But we need to understand that Branyan is the same player today that he was last winter – regardless of the change in perception that some of the less perceptive GMs in the game may have of him. (And I am skeptical that many “less perceptive” GMs remain.)
I guess my feeling is that Branyan’s expected performance next year (pending the completion of this one) is likely to be the best-case scenario for any of the other options we have within the system. If he can be had for a reasonable deal it should be considered.
Yeah if he goes out on the market and gets a three-year, $30 million offer we should NOT try to match it. But two years at $6.5 million isn’t going to kill us.
Then you roll the best of Nelson / Carp / Shelton / Clement group into the DH/PH role, or deal them.
Russell Branyan, lifetime contract.
Git r done, Zduriencik.
We don’t want to lose any more precious talent like Raul Ibanez or Willie Bloomquist.
What’s sad with Branyan is thinking what his career could have been if he’d been given an everyday role earlier in his career. I don’t know that much about his career but it looks like he was never given the everyday job…at least not for long. In his two longest seasons, out of 113 and 134 games he only had 51 and 62 PA’s vs. lefties, respectively.
Part of me just wants to see the man get paid.
yeah!
who thinks Branyan hits the highest homeruns in baseball?
really, they were precious?
Same here. And when the Braves offer him $9 million over the next two years, he’ll sign it in a heartbeat. He’ll get his money and it’ll be gratifying in the same “Isn’t that great?” vibe that I have about Raul Ibanez right now.
In the meantime, there’s a lot of work to be done: anyone else notice that ESPN is publishing run differential in its standings?
I hope the M’s either sign him to an extension soon, or make the decision to go with youth and take the compensation pick. Competing on the open market for a guy who is likely to end up with a mid-.900’s OPS could get really pricey.
Branyan might have been virtually free, but he is most definitely not a typical example of freely available talent. Finding a 1B who can hit a little is common. Finding a 1B who’s nto a statue defensively who can put up a .438 wOBA for an appreciable amount of time is not. This decade, the only real comparable finds are David Ortiz in 2003 and Carlos Pena in 2007. Branyan may be hitting way above his head right now, but this is NOT an example of easily replaceable production. What he’s doing is easily worth $7 million per. Whether he’s capable of repeating it is a different question.
“At the risk of pressing the point too far, Brad Nelson may well be a more valuable major league player next year than Russ Branyan.”
Yeeeeaaaah, that’s pressing the point way too far.
“We don’t want to lose any more precious talent like Raul Ibanez or Willie Bloomquist.”
really, they were precious?
Willie was especially precious. Just ask the fine citizens of Port Orchard, WA.
You know, there’s nothing wrong with “old-player skills” as long as you’re not paying superstar money for them. “Old-player skills” is not shorthand for “crappy” or “done”. Branyan’s a great pickup for that reason. What you want to avoid is seeing those skills in action in the first or second year of a long contract. I’m loving Branyan right now, but I don’t want to see him playing first base here in 2014.
One comp in Mariner history to Branyan’s 2009 is Boone’s 2001. I thought Boone’s resigning after that season worked out well for everyone even if the end was painful. If he keeps it up, Branyan will be rewarded for a fine season either by the Mariners or some other team. Given his relationship with our GM, the Mariners may get a discount. We do have Carp and Clement waiting in the wings so a three year contract may not be the best use of resources. OTOH A three year or longer contract is probably the kind of security that Branyan would want. On the third hand what assurance do we have that Carp, Clement, or Branyan himself will be able to duplicate his 2009 third of a season production? In Zduriencik I trust.
Absolutely. You’d have to twist my arm to sign a three-year deal. The odds Branyan is the best option at first base three years from now are very slim. This is a position of depth for the organization right now, at least in terms of future potential. I forgot to mention Dennis Raben among the players who might be ready to fill the spot in a couple of years.
With all the young talent in the 1B/DH pool…the M’s might think two years is one too many. But I doubt they can get Branyan for another one year deal.
who thinks Branyan hits the highest homeruns in baseball?
Well, here HitTracker has a lot of HRs as having higher apexes than Branyan’s last night, for instance. The average launch angle on his shots over 400 ft does seem pretty steep, though.
HitTracker is so, so cool.
They have been publishing that for a while…shocking to see how far in front the Dodgers are over everyone else, they have been for awhile, and all this without Manny.
What is new is the #P stat in the game logs, which shows the total number of pitches each batter saw.
As far as Branyan goes, I am torn. The guy has been killing the ball, our only true consistent power threat, and the M’s got the off-season signing of the year in getting him for just over a million bucks. He’s going to be offered a ridiculous sum of money for long term deals by more than one team, and, I’m afraid, that isn’t the move the M’s need to make. A 3 year deal to a guy who’s never been given an everday chance before is too high a risk I’d personally be willing to take, even though I love his game.
He says he wants to stay in Seattle, and I believe him. He’s come into his own here. But I wouldn’t blame him if some team offers him a 3 year deal for $30 million that the M’s can’t or won’t match.
Wait, why do you want to sign the old guy and deal the kids?
BTW, since it came up here and Dave mentioned him in the post, so it would seem to be within the bounds of the topic: Drayer reports that Clement has started catching bullpen sessions.
I’m a big Branyan fan. Heck, he can even run the bases better than a lot of his teammates. I was brought back to Earth though when I commented that he was the position player’s Paul Abbott (picked off the scrap heap). I was reminded that Abbott was good for about one year maybe 1.5 years. So yeah, maybe resign him for 2010 until Carp and Company move up I-5 but let’s not get too attached to him. Those Edgar-Boone-Olerud-Speizio-Vidro-etc.-etc.-etc. career collapses have been too numerous around here and are too painful to watch.
I don’t know about the game logs, but they’ve supplied #P/PA on the individual player cards for several years.
lol.
And I seem to remember us having this same discussion about Jose Guillen. “We caught lightning in a bottle, we can’t possibly do it again. Let’s sign him to a three-year deal.” Or at least that was our fear.
Perhaps someone wiser than me on this issue can answer…I know Branyan has played a substantial amount of 3rd in his career, would it be feasible to stick him there next season and free up some room for a Clement or Carp? I’m aware he wouldn’t be a gold glover, but would the drop-off defensively be more than our infield could bear?
That began to piss me off… but then you totally got what I was saying.
Having old player skills isn’t a bad thing, but it can precipitate a quick fall of a tall cliff.
Branyan is flipping awesome. But so was Boone in 2001. 2 years is a good thank you, and anything more is just stupid. Especially given that 1B is our most stacked position in the minors right now.
No, we didn’t have this discussion about Guillen — he was a completely different case. The “fear” there was that the M’s would fail to offer him arbitration and thus lose the draft pick (which, of course, they did).
People keep asking this, and the data is as close as fangraphs. As a 1B so far this year, he’s at -1.5 UZR/150 ; his historical numbers at 3B are -6.9 UZR/150 (assuming he hasn’t slowed any). Beltre at 3B is +16 right now (and +13 for his career) so you’re looking at a two plus win swing there. Branyan might not be a complete embarrassment at 3rd, but he would be taking away in the field a big chunk of what he gives with his bat. The guy you plug in at 1B has to be that much better to make up for it.