A Winning Formula
Dave · July 6, 2009 at 9:35 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Ridiculously Good Command + Flyball Lefty + Safeco Field + Terrific Outfield Defense = Awesome.
Congratulations, Jarrod. That was one well pitched game.
Congratulations, Death To Flying Things and his two wingmen. You guys rock.
Congratulations, Safeco Field. You might be picky, but at least you know how to reward those you like.
woodward is looking great at 3rd. Didn’t think he had some of those plays in him.
also, whats with sweeney pieing people with a hurt back. unacceptable, he should be released immediately lol.
And disappoint others … as Langerhans discovers tonight.
I had hoped — nay, prayed — that the pie thing had had departed with that notorious clubhouse cut-up Eddie Guardado. As long as it’s only for 1 hitters I guess I can stand the occasional reprise.
I for one loved the pies and was kinda bummed with the lack of them lately. Hopefully the M’s do well and we can keep pieing players.
And that lone one hit came off a fist-job bloop from Markakis.
Aww.. What could have been.
Pies only happen after wins, so I’ll tolerate them.
Very nice game for Washburn. A 1-hitter might even get 10 seconds of air time on the East Coast.
The way Jarrod has looked, maybe when we’re talking about the Mariners trading a starting LHP to get a SS back, we’re talking about the wrong guy.
Totally missed this game but just looked at the box score. That wasn’t just a one-hitter, that was damn near a perfect game. He only faced 28 batters. Congratulations Jarrod Washburn and to the Mariners defense, for the other 24 outs!
One pitch away from a perfect game. Wowza!
Dear Chuck Armstrong,
I would like to publicly apologize. I thought you were an idiot for not trading Washburn last year. I was wrong, you were right.
Sincerely,
PBS
and
Dear USS Mariner,
As a frequent reader and infrequent poster, I would also like to apologize to you to for aforementioned apology. We both know that they should’ve traded Washburn, but somehow have hit the jackpot by holding on to him. I promise to make future apologies less results-based, and more about the process.
yours truly,
PBS
And that lone one hit came off a fist-job bloop from Markakis.
Aww.. What could have been.
Yeah, but there were some smoked line drive that found mitts too. Washburn was a little lucky tonight, but the big thing was no walks. He earned the shutout, but 9 time out of 10 he isn’t going to get a 1 hitter or no hitter out of a game like tonight.
Has there ever been a perfect game, a no-no, or a one-hitter where the fielding wasn’t huge?
Out and about earlier, but caught it on radio. Absolutely brilliant performance…kudos to Wash and the M’s D tonight!
As impressive as that game was — and it may be the finest game Washburn has ever pitched, I’d have to go back and check — there probably was a better performance tonight by another AL West pitcher. Over in Boston Brett Anderson (who?) pitched a two-hitter. That’s a two-hitter, at Fenway, against the Red Sox. Two singles, two walks, 9K. And he had to overcome a 3-base error by Hairston in the 7th. Amusingly, he was facing off against John Smoltz, who made his major league debut on April 23, 1988; Anderson was born on February 1, 1988.
Has there ever been a perfect game, a no-no, or a one-hitter where the fielding wasn’t huge?
Randy Johnson struck out 13 in his perfect game and none of the balls in play was all that close to being a hit.
Kerry Wood pitched a 1-hitter in which he racked up 20 Ks. Fielding doesn’t loom large when it is responsible for only seven of the outs. (For that matter, Nolan Ryan pitched a no-hitter with 17 Ks)
Was at the game tonight, with a semi rowdy crew in the CF bleachers. It really seemed that there weren’t any ridiculous defensive plays that saved runs ; sure there were a couple of line drives smoked at people but otherwise Washburn just did a great job at keeping people off balance. Great to see Branyan hit one out in the first, and just seemed like Washburn cruised afterwards.
Can’t we just accept the hyperbole and not worry about what games were better or not better? The facts of the situation are Jarrod Washburn pitched as well as he can tonight and was one bleeder away from a perfect game. I dont think it matters if there have been more dominating starts by Randy and Felix or Bob Milacki, I just know that if Jarrod pitches the exact same game against every major league team, we win. Good enough for me.
Funny you should mention that…I was living in an area at the time which had WGN on the local cable system, and remember watching portions of that game. Yes, Wood was absolutely dominant against the ‘Stros (who had a pretty good lineup in those days)…IIRC, I think Ricky Gutierrez actually made it as far as third after that single due to a sacrifice then a balk by Wood — which turned out to be probably his biggest “gaffe” of what was otherwise a virtual masterpiece.
What a shame to think how brilliant of a career he could’ve had as a starter had his arm not gone to hell.
Last year he had almost the same game except two of those line drives went over a fence, and lost to the Angels. He had a better game earlier this year where he struck out five, didn’t walk anyone, didn’t give up any home runs, and lost to the Royals.
What I’m trying to say is what you want is for the defense to play that well again. This is the Ryan Franklin argument years all over again.
Well, my first post on here. Never knew this site existed.
I just wanted to say, I can’t wait to get into my car tomorrow and drive to work…listening to sports radio rant and rave about trading Washburn. Forget that the M’s won, and looked really good doing it. Forget that Langerhans looks good. Forget that Rob Johnson called another GREAT game. Forget Woodward made you not think about the Defense we lost when Beltre went down. Forget Ichrio coming through in the clutch. Forget “The Muscle” going yard again. Who are we going to trade, so we can accept our mediocrity, because we are Seattle…we don’t succeed. We can never win. We love that 2nd fiddle chip on our shoulder.
Well, I myself won’t be doing that. I am going to enjoy watching this team, win lose or draw(…oh wait ties only happen in soccer).
(I step down from my soap box)
We sure were lucky that we had Rob Johnson calling this game! We all know how terrible the pitchers pitch with Johjima back there!
/sarcasm off
I’m not sure if you were REALLY being sarcastic, and if so it was directed at me, however your post did prompt me to look up a statistic that can be very useful. In 1189 plate appearances for opponents when Johjima has been behind the plate this year, the pitchers that throw to him have an ERA of 4.93. In 1444 plat appearances when Johnson is behind the plate, the pitchers have an ERA of 2.87.
All that aside, I just happen to enjoy watching a good catcher work, and tonight, that good catcher was Rob Johnson. No slight on Johjima.
Washburn’s finally year of that infamous contract is proving to be delightful. We could either ride him for the rest of the season or ship him off for some goodies.
I’m gonna miss him though. Even with his supposed mechanical adjustments he’s never been shy to admit what he is. I’m glad he’s shaping up to have a career year when we need it the most.
Interestingly, if he’s actually figuring out how to throw a sinker that’s effective enough to eventually increase his ground ball percentage somewhat, JW might be buying his career a few more years.
They won’t be here, of course, but I’ll give him a point or two for savvy.
Agreed, Derek. I should have said gives us a chance to win the game, as with this suck hole that is an offense, nothings gimme.
I’m definitely not a fan of Washburn, never have been, probably never will. But when you get ahead of hitters and make them swing defensively, even the mediocre stuff has the chance to be pounded in the ground. It was a good effort tonight.
4 days to sell high on Washburn. I know there has to be at least 4-5 old school front offices left that would drool all over a 3.08 ERA lefty starter.
The Yankees are a game back with no pitching, the Phillies are barely hanging on. Come on, someone, bet the farm on Washburn. We’ll even throw in his salary, just give us something good in return !!!
Ship him home to Wisconsin, in a package to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy.
Now is the time to trade Washburn.
Is there anyone else on this site who was watching the O’s broadcast? You should have heard Jim Palmer butcher Wak’s name during the game. At one point I am pretty sure he actually said “wack-a-mole” He then just started calling him “Don” although he tried “Wak” one more time near the end but it still came out “wack”. Classic stuff.
This is the Ryan Franklin argument years all over again.
Speaking of arguments, shouldn’t that be “All-Star Ryan Franklin?”
Bowler, you should try reading this post before you try to use Catcher’s ERA to support your argument.
ahem.
Golly, there are times I miss the edit function.
here.
Winning formula:
This is how I equate the recipe-
1. one part minced genius GM who has created a Billy Beanesque hybrid with old fashioned values and low cost gambling. Has created a master scout squad who just signed one of the top 16 year old power prospects in Pimentiel. Sheds away all the fodder and sees each player for his values and tries to reinvent them to their once heralded forms. Branyan was once said to be the next Mickey Mantle if I remember correctly. He reminds me of Mantle.
2. one part crumbled Wakamatsu. Professional and clam and willing to work with and befriend players. Utilizes a mix of small ball and pop. Motivator. Look at the vibe of this club. They are content.
3. equal parts veteran-young player combination. Numerous clubhouse leaders and a team that cares for each other. Once heralded prospects like Branyan,Woodward,Langerhans and even Cedeno in a way have been given the Roy Hobbs treatment. One more shot for the crew shipped off to the land of unwanted toys. Veterans contributing on a timely basis when needed and filling the star veteran void we have lacked so long. Up and comers. Gutz and Aardsma have been amazing to name a few. Rob Johnson has a bright future too.
4. One pinch of a quality Farm system with good options. Carp, Shelton and Saunders can be monster power options come september. We actually can use our system for once. Remember the lil unit, Leone, Dobbs, Burke, dare I say more. Ackley is amazing. Sign the kid. Next Wade Boggs with wheels and a massive arm.
5. One chunk coaching staff excellence. Not one gaff created by a base coach. Catchers who improve. Young and old pitchers pitching lights out thanks to Adair and Wetteland. A hitting coach who has seen a mariners club IMPROVE over the course of a season. I keep reading weak hitting. We get like 10 hits a game. That used to be a lot. I guess I am getting old. Also the coaches always seem to be working and happy nd have great chemistry with the players.
6. one cup of pitching madness. The greatest thing that ever happened was Silvas shoulder impingement (wink, wink). Lights out work from vets and kids alike. Morrow is getting better. Batista has been a pleasant surprise. Guys are coming off the DL too. Corcoran has been god awful but cops to it and steps up big time. I bet he goes lights out the remainder of the year. Felix is the king. Bedard hs found himself and become a likeable guy. Washburn should have been an all star. Why cant he be the next Moyer for us. Smart pitcher.
7. One smidgeon good catching. I cringed at the catcher spot. These guys have been good the dish and called a pretty good game. Not all stars but doing what is needed. Lets cut down on passballs please though.
Winning formula for a playoff team
Would a big bat spice this team up. Hell yes. But would it hurt the formula. The M;s need to lookj at who can go. Clement is the only bust of the greatest draft ever. Lil Unit? Balientin has no options but has value. A veteran arm in the pen,. How about a player who would have a purpose like Frank Thomas. His job is for the desperate home run times and pinch hitter. Someone like that. A former glory guy who has maybe one puff of gas left. I would bring Rickey Henderson back even today.
What a great team this is…go M’s. I believe indeed.
Look most everyone can admit that Washburn pitched a decent game and had some good defense behind him…and yes…we understand that he is probably better off as trade bait.
But, this:
…is a ridiculous argument. During today’s game there was nothing close to a Home Run hit by the other team. To compare a hard hit line drive that happened to be hit towards Cedeno or hit somewhere in the middle of the outfield to two line drives that “happened to be home runs” is pretty silly.
Washburn pitched pretty well against a poor team. His defense helped him out by making all of their plays look relatively routine. Everyone gets that…but lets give him a little credit and not try and butcher anyone who attempts to give him credit.
If Washburn continues pitching well (yeah, I know) and no team is interested in him… what kind of free agent would he be? Type B?
BLYK – Please read the post and the comments again. I believe the Dave gives credit to The Angry Beaver for a “well pitched game.” You’re using DMZ’s retort to an overly broad statement to base your argument that the leaders of the good ship USS Mariner aren’t giving any credit to The Bus. DMZ was simply pointing out that in a different ballpark, with a different (read less stellar) defense, similarly pitched games can turn out very differently.
Very nice game for Washburn. A 1-hitter might even get 10 seconds of air time on the East Coast.
that is completely true. I live in NY and it is just disgusting the lack of attention for the West Coast, unless you’re the dodgers.
DMZ had a similar comment in the previous thread:
I’m not defending Washburn and saying that he is the second coming of Randy Johnson. But, if you hadn’t watched the game and read these comments (as some people do) you’d have assumed our defense were making all of these amazing plays.
There wasn’t any play made by a defender today where I was shocked. That in itself is evidence of our great defensive players. But, Washburn pitched pretty well for one night too.
I have never understood the Ryan Franklin hate. Seems to me he’s had a pretty decent career.
And now that, that right there, is the Franklin argument.
We’ve sung Franklin’s praises while he was here for ages for what he did well, and no one ever listened because they’d hang up on the discussion of what the defense contributed to his success.
It’s a ridiculous argument? Is that more ridiculous than “they’ll win every time he pitches like that”? Or less?
And again, this whole thing about weakly hit balls is misleading. Pitchers don’t have that much affect on how well balls are hit when they’re put into play: that’s on the hitters. Washburn didn’t make the Orioles suck. They suck on their own.
As a non-Sabermetrician (is that even a word? If it isn’t, it should be) I will admit to thinking that sometimes the statistical community lose the forest through the trees on some issues/players. That said, over the past couple of years that I have been reading this site, I have been very impressed with the authors abilities and willingness to give praise and credit to players they previously disdained when it is due.
Case in point is Washburn. Last year he was terrible, this site said he was terrible, and we all agreed. This year, he’s been better, he’ll tell you he’s been better, and this site has said on multiple occassions, that he’s been better.
Of course, none of this takes away from the other points DMZ is making (which he’ll state much more eloquently than I, so have at it).
Yes, give credit to Wash, he’s been better. But give credit to Sabermetrician authors willing to admit such.
Washburn’s results have been better. Washburn hasn’t changed much as a pitcher.
I once saw a man flip heads 10 times in a row. That was captured on camera, 10 consecutive heads, no tricks. Now, he had to flip coins for 5-6 hours, before he got 10 straight heads, but he did it nonetheless. The statistical probability of him flipping a head on any particular throw didn’t change before after or during his 10 successful flips, they were always 50%.
Same with Washburn. His results are better, but the fundamental ability level of him as a pitcher does not correspond to his results this year. Washburn went through a career’s worth of hills and valleys as a pitcher before coming to a 4-month stretch of good pitching results. One doesn’t suddenly become a top of the rotation pitcher overnight at age 34.
Washburn must be traded soon, because with every start from now on, the chances of him regressing to his ability level increase. Not to mention the chances of him sustaining a trade-killing injury.
Now, Washburn’s ability level isn’t horrible, he is no Silva/Batista, but he is not the pitcher that his results this year have shown. He is mediocre. His results this year are far from it, ipso facto, trade him now, that his value/ability level is highest.
Its kind of interesting looking at the top ESPN games scores for the AL pitchers. Washburns performance was an 88 good for number 6 on the list. He and Pavano (#10) are the only pitchers that made the top ten with less than 8 strikeouts in their games.
Most of this communities problen’s with Washburn stemmed from his comments regarding certain teammates – not so much his performance. Though last years results were disappointing they weren’t unpredictable. To paraphrase Denny Green: Jarrod Washburn is who we thought he was: a pitch to contact flyball pitcher. The Ms this year have given him a park and defense that he can thrive with, and he has. Now, if they can sell high they should.
Wash has certainly been a bit better than last year. But not much better. The authors here (and Dave at Fangraphs) have pointed out that k/bb is up slightly from career averages and much of his suppressed FIP and ERA is based on an unsustainably low (based on past performance) BABIP of .257 when his career BABIP is .280.
Much of this change has been (appropriately) credited to a vastly improved outfield defense… but some is do to improved control (compared to last year) and luck.
Unless there is some statistical analysis disproving it, can’t we just believe Washburn when he says he’s throwing the fastball with a different grip this year, his ball has different movement, and the hitters aren’t hitting him like they’ve hit him in the past? Is there some way to prove or disprove this?
We’ve talked about that several times. Washburn is throwing a two-seamer that he hasn’t had before. His pitches are better. You can go into the Pitch F/x data and see that he’s got more movement on his sinker than he’s had in the past.
But, the majority of his improvement this year is because he has a .257 batting average on balls in play. That’s not Washburn, that’s the outfield defense.
He’s a little bit better than he was last year. His teammates are a lot better than they were last year.
A fantasy baseball podcast I listen to just said that there were as many as 16 teams scouting Washburn last night…if that’s the case, then wow, I have to think that added a ton to his trade value.
The Brewers are said to be among the teams interested…if they are, and Z knows that farm system as good as anyone, there might be a haul of players involved to trade Washburn.
From Fangraphs, his wFB/C (that’s weighted run value of 100 fastballs) this year is the highest it’s ever been, 1.06 (significantly higher than his previous best, 0.23 in 2006). Ditto for his slider (and for his Curve, but he’s not throwing many of those). Sample size caveats apply, but he is getting better results with two of his primary pitches.
However, I believe those numbers are not fielding independant, so Mr. Gutierrez would deserve some of the credit for that. Washburn’s BABIP is over .050 points lower than it was last year, while his GB/FB is essentially unchanged and his IFFB% is actually down. Current theory says that BABIP is not under the pitcher’s control (beyond GB/FB rates). I think he’s reaping the benefit of a much better outfield defense behind him.
In addition to what Dave said, baseball players say things like this ALL THE TIME to explain sudden improvement that is actually due mostly to luck. (Remember when Silva supposedly found a new pitch?)
Your default position should be to disbelieve them, although there is some small truth in this particular case.
The talking heads on the tee-vee last night were going on about a change in Washburn’s posture. I assume he’s beginning his delivery with a straighter back, as opposed to having more of a hunch. Can anyone verify this?
BTW: Correct me if I’m wrong, but the O’s drew only two or three three-ball counts all game last night. Wow.
How much of the drop in BABIP can be attributed to the aforementioned increase in movement amongst his pitches? On pitches hit to the exact same spot in the field, the one squared up and hit harder will be a hit more often. I also imagine that pitches thrown with more movement are less likely to be hit and hit hard consistently (both his in zone and out of zone contact percentages are lower this year).
It’s obvious that the improved defense, especially in the outfield, has greatly benefitted him this year. Endy/Langerhans-DTFT-Ichiro! > Raul-random-Ichiro!. That’s a given. But does the increase in pitch movement and the advent of the two seamer in his repertoire indicate that the decrease in BABIP is more sustainable than it’s being given credit for?
I guess my question would be better phrased by asking whether a portion of the decrease is sustainable, since not all of it can be attributed to Washburn.
But does the increase in pitch movement and the advent of the two seamer in his repertoire indicate that the decrease in BABIP is more sustainable than it’s being given credit for?
No.
You know what stood out to me? How ALL the players and coaches responded to Wash after the game. It seemed everybody was hugging the guy and were all happy for him. He must be a likable guy in the clubhouse and a leader. Am I reading too much into it? Seemed that way to me, anyway.
After all the games where the team gave him NO run support, I was glad for Jerrod. I hope the team can continue to find ways to score. I really think this coaching staff has taught the team how to believe in themselves and each other. JZ and Wak were too excellent hires this off-season. I believe that the more I watch this team this year.
Future looks bright indeed!
Make that TWO excellent hires.
I just had shoulder surgery and my typing is too awkward to describe right now!! You can’t believe how many times I have to go back and correct stuff. Sorry folks.
WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
The Orioles give credit, where credit is due:
“Let’s give credit where credit is due,” Trembley said when asked whether he was satisfied with his lineup’s approach. “Washburn pitched a great game. He completely dominated the game. That’s as good of a game I’ve seen pitched against us all year.”
“He pitched one of the best games in major league baseball all season,” Orioles manager Dave Trembley said. “I give him credit. He was on his game. Boy, he certainly pitched a gem.”
“If it wasn’t for Nick’s little hit out to left, he’s got a perfect game. He was that good,” Orioles designated hitter Aubrey Huff said. “I saw one pitch to hit, and I hit it to left.”
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-orioles0706,0,5973043.story
Today would be a good day to trade him for a shortstop. Tomorrow too. JJ Hardy would be nice, heh heh.
Haven’t you heard? It’s not a two-seam fastball, it’s the Dolphin.
Hey Derek…thanks for the in depth analysis. What does that mean? Is he not liked? Looked like the guys were all excited for him and looked to genuinely like the guy.
Sigh!…I’ll get used to this site yet! ;-D
Well, at least Wash has the attractive Shannon Drayer’s seal of approval:
http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=374&sid=186475
Not to speak for Derek, but you said “He must be a likable guy in the clubhouse and a leader.” The reason that Washburn is known as “the bus” around here is because of the way he threw his teammates* (most notably Kenji) under the bus last year in attempts to explain *his* struggles. The kind of comments he was making are the antithesis of “clubhouse leadership” as it is usually touted. Hence the laughter (presumably).
*Of course, he SHOULD have been griping about Ral in the outfield… but that is beside the point.
According to Washburn, Rick Adair said “stick out your butt”– that by doing that before the wind-up he somehow aligns his hips properly and gets the mechanics correct.
Ah, okay I get it. Thanks, Ron for an actual explanation. Did you watch post-game? Maybe they’ve gotten past all that. I don’t know. But it looked like just about everybody gave the guy a big hug afterward. Of course, now that I think about it, I never saw Kenji hug him. Hmmmm….
LOL!
He’s a little bit better than he was last year. His teammates are a lot better than they were last year.
And of course, Washburn in postgame interviews gave ZERO credit to his teammates. If I was Washburn, I would most certainly toot my own horn. But come on – this great team leader couldn’t say something about the team effort that contributed to his near perfect game?
The above I don’t think I’m reading too much into – I may be reading too much into the following: the two most difficult LOOKING (this doesn’t include balls that only Gutierrez would have been magically right under) catches I saw in the game (and I didn’t see the whole thing) were made by Ichiro and Langerhans. Washburn’s response (unlike with Woodward’s plays) was not to indicate some sort of props, but instead to grimace at the line drive allowed.
So, to my mind, either he should both grimace, and acknowledge the help, or, given that his body language indicates he’s AWARE that he hasn’t become suddenly so lights out, he could acknowledge those teammates after the game.
“I knew early on I had good stuff and good command, and I was just concentrating on keeping it that way,” he said. “The guys played great defense behind me tonight. Rob called a great game. I think I only shook him off five or six times the whole game.”