Reason For Optimism
Due to the all-star break and a well timed off day, this is the Mariner rotation for the next three weeks.
Bedard
Vargas
Felix
Morrow
Washburn
Bedard
Off
Off
Off
Washburn
Felix
Bedard
Morrow
Off
Washburn
Felix
Bedard
Morrow
They won’t start Felix in the first game after the break if he pitches in the ASG, so that’s why Washburn is slotted into that spot, if you’re wondering. Still, over the next 14 games, the Mariners are scheduled to get four starts from Bedard, three starts from Felix/Washburn/Morrow, and one from Vargas. You’ll probably see Olson optioned to Triple-A today to make room for Bedard, because the M’s are going to be able to go with a four man rotation for the next few weeks.
This helps in several ways, even beyond the obvious of having better pitchers on the mound more often. The four man rotation will allow them to use Vargas out of the pen this weekend against Texas and in the Cleveland series, which will give the bullpen a lefty and an extra arm, so the concerns about overworking the bullpen will be minimized for the next few weeks. It also gives the M’s the ability to have Olson working in Triple-A as a starter, so he can be ready to step right into the rotation if Bedard or Washburn are traded.
If they can get the bats to keep hitting, this could be a fun couple of weeks.
Nice!
Why not DFA Corcoran and keep Olson in the bullpen. He has started enough in Seattle and Tacoma that I don’t think that he will need to be re-stretched out if he needs to make some spot starts. While I was pleased with Corco’s perfomrance on Saturday against Boston, I would rather have Olson, who could provide long relief, make an emergency start, and be used against lefties. Even if Vargas goes to the ‘pen for the next few weeks, Olson still seems like a better option than Corco.
Have they confirmed this as their plan? Because they’ve been ignoring off-days pretty much all season even with all the injuries. I keep wondering why they don’t move Felix and Washburn up when they have an off day, but they don’t seem to be be doing it.
I am pretty sure Washburn will NOT be pitching on 3 days rest that second game against Texas, as you have shown here. The M’s site tabs Olson for that one.
Flip Morrow and Washburn. Both would have four days rest.
The biggest assumption in this is that Bedard is healthy. We’ll find out soon enough, I guess…
Why not DFA Corcoran and keep Olson in the bullpen.
In genenral, teams are loathe to lose a pitcher if they don’t have to. If they option Olson and there’s an injury (always a chance with Erik), they can bring him right back immediately. If they DFA Corcoran, he’s off the roster until he clears waivers.
Have they confirmed this as their plan?
Yep.
I am pretty sure Washburn will NOT be pitching on 3 days rest that second game against Texas, as you have shown here. The M’s site tabs Olson for that one.
I had Morrow and Washburn’s starts flipped in the Texas series. Olson is not making that start.
Good point, Jack B.
More than likely I think Olson starts and then Washburn against Texas. Morrow might be the one heading down to Tacoma over the break for a start.
I do think Olson will be the odd man out after the break until they need him again. But he’s been great out of the pen against lefties, so I don’t know why they don’t just keep him there. I agree that he’s a better option than Corcoran.
While I still would rather see Olson in the ‘pen rather than Corcoran, I take Dave’s point.
Just curious about the chances that Corcoran would clear waivers (now or later), less than 50%?
thanks for the clarification, Dave
He was good last year and has had good games this year. I’m sure a bullpen challenged team would take a chance on him.
More than likely I think Olson starts and then Washburn against Texas. Morrow might be the one heading down to Tacoma over the break for a start.
Nope.
Just curious about the chances that Corcoran would clear waivers (now or later), less than 50%?
99%, but the DFA process still takes time to occur. They could go that route, but I’d bet on an Olson option.
I’m with Tek Jansen — Olson, being left-handed and a decent pitcher, is much more useful in the bullpen than Roy Corcoran, who’s right-handed and sucks. The bullpen’s been operating without a left-hander much of the season. It wouldn’t hurt to have two of them for Wak to use in the late innings…
Yeah, somehow Corcoran got five outs in Boston but coming into that game he had three times as many walks (15) as strikeouts (5) — and on top of that opposing hitters were blistering him at a .407 clip. You could spit on a guy in the crowd at Safeco and find someone better than that (well, no, not really, but…)
Corcoran had no business being in that tie game in Boston and if they think he’s all “straightened out” now I think they’re fooling themselves and he’s gonna lose some games for them.
The only reason to option Olson instead of Corcoran is if they want to keep Olson stretched out because they expect they’ll need him in the rotation soon. Valid reason but I still don’t like the idea of sending away a good pitcher and keeping a guy who’s been pretty much the worst pitcher in the Majors all year.
So what would be the hitting equivalent of the numbers Corcoran’s put up this year? I’d say a lot worse than the putrid .145/.209/.282 line Ronny Cedeno’s putting up…
This is kind of like the Sweeney/Shelton argument at the beginning of the year except probably more trivial.
All things being equal you’d prefer to go with the more valuable guy except in this case, they aren’t. You can put Olson on the bus to Tacoma with no risk to the org while the same can’t be said for Corcoran.
Yea – we’re talking about the 8th guy in the bullpen here. It’s just not something to get worked up over.
I have to admit I’m no Corcoran fan either and I like the idea of a lefty in the bull-pen. Olsen would serve there pretty well for us.
But there could be a deal in the works for one of our lefty’s and they’ll need Olsen ready to start. Isn’t it nice to know a trade could be in the works and actually be excited about it?! I love Jack Z. Don’t you?
Maybe I am missing something, but don’t the other teams have a similar opportunity to adjust their starters?
Then it seems that this only presents a net advantage for the Mariners if the drop-off to No. 5 is larger compared to Texas or LAA.
I think the one real advantage we have is if we get into September still in the race. I looked at the schedule the other day and we have every single September Monday off. That’s a lot of days off to avoid 5th starters…
I believe this is meant to be a post of hope. If you want to get overly realistic, you could instead focus on the facts that Bedard is injured, Morrow can’t throw strikes, and Washburn has been lucky (though still pretty good). Personally, I think it’s good every once in a while to ask yourself, if the M’s are going to make it to the World Series this year, how’s it going to happen? That’s what this is about. It’s about those 4 starters going absolutely bonkers over the next few weeks – which they just might do – and the M’s riding them into first place.
I think, as Dave has posted, the more important thing right now is getting a quality SS than all this pitching talk. After watching Cedeno bat (for lack of a better term), I believe a good, solid SS that can actually hit would make this team much more dangerous. I hope Jack Z. can get something done in this area. Just my 2 cents.
The ironic thing is that a return of Bedard DOES actually help the pen since it puts Vargas one foot in the pen over these three weeks.
I’m for sending Vargas to Tacoma and letting Olson be the 5th starter/bullpen Lefty.
Maybe it is fools gold, but Olson has been able to go longer (inning wise) and show more lately, and Vargas hasn’t shown much at all lately. He struggles to go 5 innings. I would prefer to let Vargas figure things out as a starter in Tacoma.
(Of course that is presuming the Vargas we are seeing ring now isn’t “the real Vargas†and that there is still a lot of potential.)
I’m sorry, but if you prefer Olson (5.89 FIP) to Vargas (4.78 FIP), you need to re-evaluate how you understand pitching.
Vargas’ “struggles” have come in Coors Field and Coors Field East. Stop evaluating by results. Learn to evaluate by process.
Dave, what do you see as Vargas’s upside? Is he a potential legit #3/#4 starter for this org in the next few years?
What you see is what you get. He’s a strike throwing flyball guy with a pretty good change-up. There’s no upside beyond that. He’s perfect for this park and a team with a good outfield defense. Essentially, he’s the 06-08 version of Washburn – a #5 starter who looks better than that because of the context.
Dave,
I’m fairly new here and I’m not the baseball expert you or Derek or SEVERAL of the posters here are. Football has always been my game and I can post all kinds of info on football, schemes, players, pad levels, cone drill times and how they are MUCH more important than 40 times, etc. But when I come here and read all the sabermetric numbers and analysis, I’m lost. Where can a guy go to ‘adjust’ his understanding of baseball? Seems like, on this site, if you don’t know this stuff already, you can get skewered pretty good, which I also don’t understand. Isn’t this a forum where we’re all fans of the same team?
Am I off-base when I say a good, solid, decent hitting SS would make this team way more dangerous than all this pitching talk? I’m not saying that because of analysis as much as a gut-feeling. I don’t remember any statistical numbers presented in the ‘SS Thread’. I just agree with the idea 100%.
I’m not an expert, but I am a BIG Mariners fan that is excited about this team. After last year’s debacle and the ill-given moves that had been made, this new regime has me pretty pumped about the future. So forgive me if my questions come across as dumb. I say that to all here sincerely with no sarcasm intended at all.
This is a great site and I look forward to the posts regarding this team.
There’s a recommended reading link on every page.
Thanks Derek. I never even noticed that before. I’ll try to get myself ‘educated’.
I’ve spent more time here lately because I injured myself at work and will be off a while. I’ve always just done a quick of read of posts, possible moves, etc. I’ll look at those links. Thanks again.
Does this team show an inclination to go with just four starters though? The five-man rotation is why you’ll never see another Denny McLain. It’s become kinda ingrained. I remember Lou ditched the five man rotation in 1995 but that was Lou and he had The Big Unit every fourth start and Salmon Torres as his fifth starter.
I will look at the number from an objective perspective. In Olson and Vargas’s last 6 starts (since first of June)
In starts where they have gone 5+ innings
Vargas – 3 starts
Olson – 6 Starts
Starts where they have thrown 80+ pitches
Vargas – 4 starts
Olson – 4 starts
Avg hits per game
Vargas – 7.16
Olson – 4.66
Avg ER per game
Vargas – 3.66
Olson – 3.33
Avg BB per game
Vargas – .8333
Olson – 1.5
Avg SO per game
Vargas – 3
Olson – 3
If I read the number correctly they are pretty close to the same pitcher. You are just going to get more innings out of Olson. I would love for Vargas to prove me wrong and that it is because he had to face the Yankees, Dodgers and Colorado, but Olson did good if not better then expected against the Angles, Dodgers and Boston.
If I had to choose the lefty to keep it would be Olson. I know I’m gonna lose this one, and you might even ban me from the site, but I think I have a decent case.
It’s not that you’re reading the numbers wrong. It’s that you’re reading wrong numbers
I will look at the number from an objective perspective.
M’s Starters this year according to Fangraphs
Vargas: 4.98 FIP
Silva: 5.86 FIP
Olson: 6.35 FIP
Let’s keep Vargas in the rotation.
If I had to choose the lefty to keep it would be Olson. I know I’m gonna lose this one, and you might even ban me from the site, but I think I have a decent case.
No one’s going to ban you from the site unless you start acting like a jerk. You can be wrong all you want. On this, you are. You’re just not looking at the right numbers.
Wolfman!
Thanks for posting. Getting skewered is part of the fun. Talking about the sequence of pitchers is part of the optimisim going forward. But you’re right, a good SS deal could make replacing one of those pitchers a reason for greater optimism.
Soonerman22
I love looking at results based stats as well, but they are a loose correlation (often highly luck influenced) and not indicative of future performance. That’s why SABR people like to look at things like FIP, GB/FB, SwingingStrike%, BABIP, etc. when evaluating true pitching talent.
Which makes you wonder, what the heck are they going to do about Silva?
Keep him on the DL for 2 more years, where the only thing he can put a hurt on is a bag of cheeseburgers..
head chef?
I hear fishing at Lake Tahoe is nice this time of year.
head chef?
This is back on the infield question, but is there a reason that the M’s haven’t explored trying Ray Durham at 2d base while moving Lopez to 3d option? I suppose Durham would be rusty, but he did post an .845 OPS last year in limited playing time.
Still wouldn’t solve the shortstop problem, but would seem to be a lot more potential offensive production than Yuni, Woodward, or Cedeno.
ZiPS (via Fangraphs) is projecting a 4.57 FIP for Silva for the rest of a season. This is of course assuming that he is healthy again.
That would be the 4th best starter FIP on the team behind Felix, Bedard, and Washburn and ahead of what everyone else has produced so far this year. If Morrow’s HR/FB % drops from it’s current 20%, then Silva is the 5th best starter on the team.
Thanks, Heyoka. I guess I’ll have to get used to the skewering thing. I’m probably a little skittish because I don’t understand all the ‘numbers talk’. But I’ll get it down. Thanks again!
After watching Cedeno at the plate last night, I’d be all for trying just about anything to get some more offensive punch in the lineup. Is Durham any good at the defensive side? I do know that’s critical and that’s one area Cedeno has been good, to his credit.
I think I like the idea of getting somebody who’s been in the game, like Wilson at Pittsburg. Doesn’t sound like the Rays would let Brignac get away without a king’s ransom and Bavasi doesn’t pull that trigger here anymore. It’s going to be interesting/fun to see what GMZ does.
Dave,
I’m a big, big fan of possibly going out and getting Hardy. Do you think the Brewers would consider trading for Washburn and a couple of minor leaguers – rather than Bedard?
Not that I’m opposed to trading Bedard, but a Felix/(healthy) Badard combo is more attractive to me in a playoff run than a Felix/Washburn combo.
Then again, maybe Washburn is your best No. 2 starter right now.
Tough call.
Okay I don’t know what I am talking about, and I guess this is where I know my naivety (is that a word) What does â€FIP, GB/FB, SwingingStrike%, BABIP, etc.†all stand for and where would I find these stats?
I will admit I may be stuck in the 80′s and looking at the back of baseball cards and box scores. I know I have recently found baseballreference.com and enjoy it, but maybe it is archaic and I don’t know it.
Hopefully this isn’t coming across as sarcastic, but please help me see what I don’t. Please bring me into the 21st century when it comes to looking at stats.
Soonerman, try Fangraphs.com. It will change your world as you know it. Dave writes over there too, so you know you’re in good hands. If you have any questions, I’m sure everyone will help you along here.
Apparently 16 teams had scouts at last night’s game watching Pepe Washburn…so, if he’s sent to AAA, Olsen might be back quicker than you think.
Also, might Vargas’ FIP be even a bit lower had he not pitched in Coors Field and East Coast Coors? Don’t remember off the top of my head how many dingers he gave up.
The Times is reporting that Sweeney was placed on the DL to make room for Bedard. 13 pitchers?
6 man pitching staff?
Soonerman22
A really good place to start is here. Dave does a bang-up job of explaining how one should evaluate pitchers.
I’ll second that. Go to a player’s stats page and click on the “Quick Glossery” links. It won’t explain everything, but it’ll give you the next set of questions to ask.
The most important thing to understand is probably the idea of Run Values. That’ll unlock a lot of the other numbers. You might try http://www.insidethebook.com/
So the M’s bench for tonight’s game is Josh Wilson, Balentien and Johjima.
And it must be assuming that his sinker will actually start sinking again, and by extension, that the reason that his sinker was not working was because he was injured.
I’ll believe that when we see it.
vargas or olson out of the pen is a beautiful option.