The JJ Hardy Plan
With all the talk of whether the M’s should be buyers or sellers, I’ve advocated for the last few months that the M’s should be both.
This team is not good enough to justify hanging onto Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn only to watch them leave via free agency at years end, when the trade market is craving veteran starting pitching. If this team had a 40% chance or better at making the playoffs, then you could look at maximizing the talent on the 2009 squad at the expense of future teams in order to take a chance at winning in October. But, realistically, their playoff odds are more like 15%, so five out of six times, that push for the playoffs comes up short and the team gets neither October baseball or future value in exchange for keeping Bedard and Washburn.
On the other hand, a 15% chance of making the playoffs is too high to abandon as a lost cause. The potential reward for that one-in-six chance coming up in your favor is extremely high, and should keep the team away from a blow-up-the-roster-and-play-the-kids strategy. St. Louis won a World Series in 2006 while going 83-79 in the regular season and outscoring their opponents by a whopping 19 runs. You don’t have to be the ‘27 Yankees to get hot in October, and the M’s have enough talent to make a crazy playoff run possible. You can’t pretend that the potential for that kind of outcome, even if it is unlikely, has no value.
So the team is faced with a scenario where it should trade Bedard and Washburn for players that will be around past this season, but also should be looking to keep the 2009 team competitive. The solution? J.J. Hardy.
The Brewers shortstop was drafted by Zduriencik when he was the scouting director for Milwaukee. Since arriving in the majors in 2005, Hardy has compiled a career .264/.324/.435 mark that is about as close to league average as you can possibly get. Over 2,168 plate appearances in the big leagues, Hardy’s Weighted Runs Above Average is -0.5. Half of a run below average as a hitter over his 4+ year career. When someone says he’s a league average hitter, they aren’t kidding.
A league average hitter might not be that exciting, but it isn’t very easy to find league average hitters who play quality defense at premium positions. As Mariner fans have seen over the past few years, the average offense + terrific defense combination is quite valuable. And Hardy is a really good defender – his career UZR is +39 in 4,411 innings, which works out to about +12 runs per 150 games. That makes him one of the best defensive shortstops in the game.
This is, essentially, the Adrian Beltre/Mike Cameron/Franklin Gutierrez skillset. Hardy is that kind of player. Over his big league career, he’s been worth +13.4 wins in those 2,168 PA, or about +3.7 wins per season. He turns 27 in August, so he’s not living off of career year performances that he can’t be expected to repeat, either. Going forward, Hardy should be projected as a +4 win player over a full season.
Why on earth would the Brewers want to trade a 26-year-old +4 win shortstop while they are in the middle of a pennant race? Because they have this kid named Alcides Escobar hanging out in Triple-A, waiting for the call to Milwaukee. Escobar is a 22-year-old that the Milwaukee front office is absolutely in love with, to the point that when declaring him off limits in trade discussions, Doug Melvin said “You can go years without having a shortstop prospect like him. They don’t come around that often.”
Escobar is a premium defender with an improving bat, currently hitting .296/.348/.417 in Triple-A, including a .310/.412/.517 mark in July. He’s capable of holding his own in the big leagues right now, and he’d be one of the rangiest players in the league from the moment he got to the big leagues. Quite simply, Escobar is the Brewers shortstop of the future, and they’re going to have to move Hardy out of his way at some point soon.
They could move him to third base, except he has no interest in playing anywhere besides shortstop and their other “untouchable” prospect, Mat Gamel, is getting time there right now. They could move him to second base, but Casey McGehee is posting a .396 wOBA while filling in for the injured Rickie Weeks, who will be back next season. In reality, they just don’t have a spot for Hardy going forward. His future is somewhere besides Milwaukee.
So, if Melvin is looking at an inevitable trade of Hardy, dealing him now to acquire some badly needed pitching help makes more sense than waiting to deal him this winter. Melvin has been blunt about his ability to acquire pitching in this market, stating that the teams that are willing to move veteran starting pitchers are looking for young pitchers back in return, and he doesn’t have any to trade. He’s a man trying to buy in a land where his currency isn’t any good.
The M’s, however, should have little to no interest in getting a young pitcher back from the Brewers. The Mariners need a shortstop, and the Brewers have two. The Brewers need starting pitchers, and the Mariners have seven. This would be a perfect match even if Zduriencik and Melvin hadn’t spent years working together. Their history should make a deal between those two significantly easier to hash out.
What kind of deal would work for both sides? No need to make this complicated. The M’s ship both of their free-agent-to-be starters to Milwaukee, along with enough cash to fit their salaries into Milwaukee’s budget, in exchange for Hardy. Both teams trade from depth to fill holes.
For the Mariners, the move would essentially break down like this.
Hardy replaces Cedeno at SS
Hardy (projected .338 wOBA going forward) would be a big offensive upgrade from Cedeno (projected .284 wOBA going forward), and probably a minor upgrade from Cedeno defensively. Over two and a half months, the offensive difference would be worth about 11 runs.
Morrow replaces Bedard at SP
One talented but enigmatic pitcher replaces another. Morrow’s not nearly as good as Bedard, but as we saw in Boston, he has his moments. His projected FIP of 4.37 over 69 innings over the rest of the year is a dropoff from Bedard’s 3.19 FIP over 62 innings, but only about an eight run difference.
Rowland-Smith replaces Washburn at SP
This is where it gets a little dicey. Washburn’s projected for a 4.22 FIP over 77 innings for the rest of the season, but ZIPS doesn’t know that Ryan Rowland-Smith has been converted to the rotation, got placed on the disabled list for a few months, and then had some issues with decreased velocity in Triple-A. However, RRS has pitched well in the majors in previous years and his last three starts for Tacoma have been very good, so there are reasons to believe that he could join the rotation and pitch well. If you think he’s going to be something like a Jason Vargas and post a ~5.00 FIP over the rest of the season, you’d be looking at a six run dropoff. If you think he’d be really bad, we could give him a 5.50 FIP and the gap would go up to ten runs.
Add it all up for the M’s, and the net difference of adding Hardy while subtracting Bedard and Washburn would be something like -5 runs over the rest of the year. That’s half a win that they lose, while also getting to retain Hardy’s services for 2010 (after which point, this deal would be an easy net positive for the Mariners).
If I do the same thing for the Brewers, just without the wordiness, we get a -5 for the dropoff from Hardy to Escobar, a +9 from Suppan to Bedard, and a +4 from Burns to Washburn. That makes them almost a win better this year by making this deal. They also offset the loss of Hardy’s future value by getting the draft pick back from letting Bedard leave via free agency, and potentially getting Washburn to sign a home town discount deal to stay in Wisconsin beyond this season.
The M’s get a shortstop for the present and future. They make the 2009 roster only marginally worse while drastically improving the 2010 roster and providing a long term solution to the shortstop problem. The Brewers get much needed pitching help, while clearing the way for their shortstop of the future, and they do so without having to expand their budget or trade away any pieces from their farm system.
This is the quintessential win-win trade. The M’s allow themselves to stay in contention for the rest of 2009 (and if you’re that concerned with the rotation after the deal, just go trade for Ian Snell, who Pittsburgh is trying to give away) and acquire a foundation-caliber player who will stick around for 2010 and potentially beyond.
The M’s have surplus pitching. The Brewers have a surplus at shortstop. The Mariners need a shortstop, and the Brewers need pitching. Let’s just make everyone happy and pull the trigger on this, okay?
I love the idea of getting Hardy, but can’t see where it will take both lefties to do it. We can deal from strength because it is pitching the Brewers need and haven’t been able to get. If they need more then one lefty, use some of the surplus in the pen.
I have no problem with trading both pitchers, but think that you can get more then one shortstop that is under control for only one more year.
I don’t think it would take both either. Bedard + maybe a throw-in guy (Balentien?) and maybe a few dollars would (I would think) get you Hardy. They should NOT jerk Morrow back up again. And RRS should be able to fill in for Bedard. He appears to be ready.
I had doubts, but I guess Milwaukee has a very good reason to make this trade. They have a 25% chance of making the playoffs according to Coolstandings and the two extra SP might put them over the top. How long would Hardy be under the Mariners control?
Dave, you forgot to add in the extra offensive boost the M’s would get by not having to play Rob Johnson three out of every five days if two of the three pitchers for whom he caddies are traded away.
Both our trade chips for Hardy? Yikes. It makes sense the way you break it down but… I guess I had built up my hopes with regard to what Washburn might be worth. But this is a tough market for starting pitching, and giving up TWO for two years of a player who, albeit great, is great for reasons that don’t get the kind of hype that goes with lefty starters.
One concern I have about Hardy is he’s been playing in Milwaukee and would have to move to Safeco, on top of the AL to NL thing. This makes me a bit squirmy to be honest.
I’m all for trading Wash and Bedard…but, it seems like sending both is overpaying for someone you have basically listed as expendable to the Brewers.
Would the Mariners be able to get better prospects for trading these two guys? It seems like the “win now and win later” strategy has a lot riding on Brandon Morrow, and if we are relying on Morrow to suddenly become a reliable starter I would rather just get better players for next season.
Of course, you can just imagine what the reaction would be from the Geoff Bakers and traditional analysts of the world would be is Washburn AND Bedard are included- “Zduriencik waves white flag and makes surrender trade”.
This is the sort of deal that reminds me of the Paul LoDuca deal in 2004, where the Dodgers under DePodesta traded while they were at the top of the division- the GM gets crucified in the press.
That being said, God save us all from a Mariner roster designed by Geoff Baker, or most press people. I have confidence Zduriencik will get it right.
I definitely would love to add Hardy but agree that I don’t think it would take BOTH straters to land him.
What about Bedard OR Washburn and RRS for Hardy? That gives the Brewers RRS who is young and under team control and one of our two studs in the current rotation.
I’ll just echo the other sentiments. I like Hardy a lot and have hoped we’d make a run at him, but I certainly was hoping it wouldn’t cost both pitchers. I’m not opposed to dealing both, I was just hoping that it could be Bedard plus something and we’d still have Washburn around as another chip.
It does make sense though.
I think people in these comments are over-valuing Bedard. He’s been injury prone, just coming off yet another stint on the DL, and, like Washburn, will be looking to try out free agency at the end of the year. While Bedard is a very good pitcher when he’s healthy, his relative lack of health in the last 2 years is going seriously devalue what he can bring on the open market. If we can deal 2 expiring contracts for a SS we’d have under control through next year, who is young, and plays premium defense at a position we haven’t had in years and years, I’m all for it.
Just remember, the individuals most likely to disapprove of such a trade are most likely those who loved the Bedard trade and were uncertain at best about the Putz trade.
I also agree that both Wash and Bedard seems steep, but one would have to go to get Hardy.
Dave, any chance of a three way where the M’s send another team prospects (Clement, Halman, etc.), the Brewers a backend starter/swingman (RRS), and the third team send the Brewers a frontline starter. In return, the M’s get Hardy? This seems to be the only possible scenario in which the M’s could get a real impact SS for now and the future and not give up either Bedard or Wash.
But I suppose that if the M’s just wanted to play for this year alone and keep both starters they could send something to Pittsburgh for Jack Wilson, who, while not as good as Hardy and simply a temporary fix, would make the team better.
I’m with everyone else here, if JJ was tough to pry away I’d be for it, but seeing he is expendable giving all we have for Hardy seems like a bit of a cope out. Anyway we could get Snell/Hardy/maybe even Sanchez; Brewers get Wash and Erik; Pirates get Ronny,Wlad,or mid level prospect/2 mid level prospects from Brewers?? No clue on what the Pirates want/need.
If Sanchez is too pricey is Bill Hall worth acquiring? Haven’t heard his name this year, not sure if he is hurt, in the doghouse, or just bad. He is overpaid, but could give us a decent bat along with a utility player to fill any holes if Z can’t fill them in the offseason.
I think it’s a pretty tough to sell going backwards when you’re 4 games out of first place and just took 3 of 4 from the 2nd place team. Tough to sell to the casual fan, to the players, and, I bet even to USSM readers. Not that it doesn’t make some sense, all things considered, but I seriously doubt Jack Z, or any GM other than possibly Billy Beane, would make that deal right now.
Oof. 2 starting pitcher for Hardy seems high, and not something that the Mariners fanbase would easily swallow. While the argument makes sense here in this blog, the average M’s fan would be ticked, and that matters. Not all season-ticket holders are stat heads, and this proposed trade could mark the beginning of an anti-Z camp, as it would be seen as selling too much too soon. Is there any chance we could swap out one of our myriad other pitchers instead of trading Washburn? Would a Bedard/Clement/Vargas or Olson or Jakubauskas package work?
While this works in the long run, I just think it would turn the average M’s fan against Z and start the buildup of bitterness that could end his tenure years too soon.
I like the Reid Brignac plan better. Better even still (also I may be biased because I’m a Phils fan), I think the M’s should send Wash or Bedard to Philly for Jason Donald and some other piece or two. The Phillies have a STACKED system and I think they could have better options than just JJ Hardy.
Great idea Dave. The M’s acquired Langerhaus after your post, so maybe they will do the same with Hardy.
I also would add that neither Bedard or Washburne is that good. Most fans overvalue the talent they have, but so far the M’s appear to have a realistic appraisal of what they have. Billy Beane appears to have lost his touch of late, and perhaps Jack Z will assume the mantle of best GM.
I would be interested in an indepth post as to whether our rival to the south has gone south, or is just in a temporary funk.
Has there been any indication that the higher ups would try to block a washburn move like last year?
You’re all overvaluing Bedard and Washburn. You’re also not taking into consideration the scarcity of a league average or better SS in the market right now.
The Royals were desperate for a SS and you see what they gave up for Yuni. We all know that he’s not good. Imagine what they would have had to give up for a good shortstop like Hardy.
The fact that USSM readers don’t think it should take both pitchers to get Hardy, means the casual fan definitely won’t and will be really disappointed by the return. However, were they to acquire another pitcher in advance (Snell or otherwise) the sell would be much easier. I don’t think there is an unbreakable attachment to either starter in the public, just a reservation about having a completely no-name pitching staff after Felix. Names don’t win games, but public sentiment fills the stands and pays the bills.
All that said, the deal makes sense…just won’t to a lot of people.
That’s a mighty fine strawman argument you have going there.
A person doesn’t have to be irrational and apparently not understand baseball to dislike the idea of this trade and think that Bedard and Washburn might be able to command more in another deal or deals.
What are the pros and cons of Hardy vs Brignac, including what it would likely cost to require one or the other.
And is Freddy Sanchez at all an option at short, or just at second, with Lopez moving to third until Beltre is back, and then being odd man out?
We can deal from strength because it is pitching the Brewers need and haven’t been able to get.
That works both ways. It is a shortstop we need and haven’t been able to get.
I have no problem with trading both pitchers, but think that you can get more then one shortstop that is under control for only one more year.
But you think that because…?
I don’t think it would take both either. Bedard + maybe a throw-in guy (Balentien?) and maybe a few dollars would (I would think) get you Hardy.
No. Look at the numbers above. Bedard for Hardy is basically a wash for the Brewers in terms of proejcted performance for the rest of ‘09, so you’re asking them to surrender Hardy’s 2010 season for Balentien and cash. Get real.
I’m all for trading Wash and Bedard…but, it seems like sending both is overpaying for someone you have basically listed as expendable to the Brewers.
J.J. Putz was expendable for the Mariners over the winter. We didn’t give him away.
Would the Mariners be able to get better prospects for trading these two guys?
No. You all are really overrating what the M’s will get by dealing these two. You’re not getting prime prospects for either one of them.
What about Bedard OR Washburn and RRS for Hardy?
You’d rather keep Washburn than RRS? That’s dumb.
Would a Bedard/Clement/Vargas or Olson or Jakubauskas package work?
You’d rather keep Washburn than Clement and one of Vargas/Olson/Jakubauskas? That’s borderline insane.
Jack can make a better trade with less. he’s already proven that.
My argument for keeping Washburn over RRS is that he will help the M’s a lot more than RRS will this year and maybe the M’s can sign him to a 2-3 year extension.
I agree completely that the new defense has helped him but as you have also admitted Dave, Washburn has definitely re-invented himself and become a better pitcher too.
I think Olsen can easily give us what RRS can and think that Washburn helps us more this year down the stretch.
My argument for keeping Washburn over RRS is that he will help the M’s a lot more than RRS will this year and maybe the M’s can sign him to a 2-3 year extension.
That is a terrible idea.
I agree completely that the new defense has helped him but as you have also admitted Dave, Washburn has definitely re-invented himself and become a better pitcher too.
He’s become a marginally better pitcher this year.
I think Olsen can easily give us what RRS can and think that Washburn helps us more this year down the stretch.
The difference is a handful of runs at most.
Even here, people just can’t get past ERA…
A more realistic trade would be Jose Lopez, Brandon Morrow, Wladimir Balentien, Greg Halman, Miguel Batista, and RRS/Olson/Vargas for Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson and Zach Duke.
I’d love to get Hardy for Bedard and Washburn.
I think we’d probably be making out pretty well with that.
Bedard isn’t going to be of much value for this team, or any team, if they make the playoffs. He is very likely to be injured again before the year is out. Bedard is practically a throw-in level player. In fact, in games he’s started the M’s are 7-6.
And Washburn… Just can’t keep pitching like this (can he?!?) Eventually he will have a couple bad games, and right now he’s worth more than he ever will be. A road trip to Texas or Southern California could be a killer… Plus I think Washburn is probably worth more to an NL team than an AL team, because he is rumored to be pretty good with the bat in BP.
Bedard is really, really, really good.
Bedard is practically a throw-in level player.
A more realistic trade would be Jose Lopez, Brandon Morrow, Wladimir Balentien, Greg Halman, Miguel Batista, and RRS/Olson/Vargas for Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson and Zach Duke.
This is why we occasionally think about turning off the comments. Come on, people.
i too don’t agree with the Wash extension, but i don’t completely disagree with trading Wash/Clement/RR-S; if you package Bedard in the other trade. I think they are trying to argue make two trades that help the team this year, while not giving up too much in the future.
LaHair/Clement/etc. don’t have much of a future in the organization, so why not expend them for Sanchez and Hardy along with guys like Wlad/Wash/Erik/etc.
If we could deal two or three of are no future AAA players for a Sanchez/Wilson/etc. No one would have a problem, I think people are just worried about losing both trading chips for one player.
(When he’s actually pitching.)
Realistic in being accepted by media and fans and giving up enough to get quality back. I would like to trade for Hardy but I agree with the move being perceived as a wave of the white flag by fans and media.
Where’d you get this number? WAG?
We can deal from strength because it is pitching the Brewers need and haven’t been able to get.
That works both ways. It is a shortstop we need and haven’t been able to get.
Melvin wants to get Alcides Escobar on the field. That means moving Hardy. Yes he could move him to another position, but that creates even more problems. This is basic negotiating 101. Melvin showed last year with the Sabathia trade that he wants to compete now. Trading for either Washburn or Bedard allows them to get a pitcher and open up the sport for Escobar. By staying strong, the M’s can get him for one starter and another piece.
I can get past ERA and am not basing my argument around ERA.
I am a HUGE JJ Hardy fan and would love to have him…I just disagree that we need to give up both Washburn and Bedard to do it.
Because the Mariners are clearly the only team that might have some interest in a cheap young 4 win SS with another year of club control.
I can’t think of any non-Mariner pitcher trades or Pitcher for non-prospect position players trades right now. The numbers do match up, However it seems like other teams value pitching wins more then positional wins.
Is there a good example of a trade where it was pitcher for premium defensive player where the WAR numbers added up close and not in favor of the pitcher to strongly.
I can do the leg work if someone has a trade in mind… I am drawing blanks right now.
Washburn and Bedard for Hardy+ a just below can’t miss prospect sounds about right. But the backlash would just be too substantial.
Because the Mariners are clearly the only team that might have some interest in a cheap young 4 win SS with another year of club control.
Apparently, because Melvin has said that he hasn’t been able to make a trade yet.
I like this move and even anticipated that we’d be looking at a post of this nature after the Betancourt trade, but I still have my doubts about it. Certainly I think it’s a good idea in principle, but I have my doubts that something this drastic in nature would get the approval of the entirety or even the majority of the Mariners top brass.
Certainly the idea of Bedard and Washburn walking away at the end of the season with only the potential B-compensation makes dealing the two a lot more palatable for such a conservative front office, but I don’t think Geoff Baker is alone in the belief that World Series rings are earned on the backs of a dominating and experianced rotation.
I can obviously only speculate, but I would assume individuals like Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong with long track records of playing it safe, would look at this roster, the success of the rotation, and the bubbly “chemistry” and walk on egg-shells around the idea of breaking up the “core” of their rotation.
I do certainly hope something like this gets done, and Zduriencik’s familiarity with Hardy, the Mariners play-off position and the impending free-agency certainly give it potential, but I’ve seen too many simular opportunities passed on by this teams’ administration in the past.
That is an absurdity.
I think some of you are misunderstanding the difference between a valuable player and a good player. A good player on the verge of free agency is just not that valuable.
I don’t like to admit it, but I think it would take both Bedard and Wash to get Hardy.
That said, I’d still be all for it in a heartbeat.
That said, I think 80% of the fanbase would be pissed and think Zduriencik is throwing in the towel.
That said, all it would take to shut them up is for the team to keep winning.
All of that said, maybe Jack is such a genius that he actually CAN pull it off and keep one of the two… It wouldn’t be his first fleecing.
I think this post is a terrific idea. I can’t believe how people have suddenly got on the Washburn train and think he’s suddenly Superman. That he gets valued anywhere close to his contract would truly amaze me. To get JJ in the deal? Guti-esque, I say. This trade would play to both teams wants and needs… Steal the thunder of the Home Run Derby, do it now!
I’d be interested to see what the long term effects of a team having an Erik Bedard on the team are…
Specifically, how much does a team lose by having to run out 4 innings of relief after their starter comes out? Does burning up half of your bullpen in one night have negative effects down the road?
That is my concern with Bedard, and one of the reasons I would be ecstatic to have him traded away. I said he was a throw-in level player, which was wrong, but I think he’s not of a great value, given that he’s got maybe 15 games left to pitch for us, if we’re REALLY, REALLY lucky, and he doesn’t get shut down again, as is his custom. Basically, 75 innings.
I don’t think folks see how the defense is tied into the pitching stats. Our squad makes pitchers better and it will do that even mo’ betta if this goes down.
The thunder of the what? I think a more interesting show would be the “catch a fly ball on a windy day at Wrigley skill”.
My biggest question is still whether we should be putting so much faith in Morrow coming back and providing any sort of value this year.
If that doesn’t have a great chance of happening, then why try and make a trade to keep our 15% chance of making the playoffs alive?
How would this trade compare to what the As got last year from the Cubs for Rich Harden? Seems like he is very similar to Bedard…
Bedard + Washburn for Hardy would make me sad because I think Zduriencik can do better. (But maybe I am just undervaluing Hardy or overvaluing our pitchers?). If Hardy was signed for several more years it would be a different story.
Washburn and Bedard represent, to me, and opportunity for Zduriencik to make trades that screw other teams. So I wouldnt want to lose them without having screwed over said teams.
Backlash, smacklash. If there’s anything Zduriencik has shown, it’s that he doesn’t make deals with one eye on the papers (much less their blogs). If it’s a good deal, he’ll do it, and let the PR take care of itself.
Personally, I think this would be a great move, especially paired with a deal for Snell (fantastic buy-low candidate); I think the folks who want to replace Washburn with “another piece” fail to realize that all the plausible “other pieces” are worth more to us than Washburn is.
Dave was saying that if the [MARINERS NO APOSTROPHE WHAT IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE TODAY ARGH] had a 40% chance of making the playoffs, which they currently don’t according to PECOTA which puts their odds at about 15%. (Which he also mentioned)
JakeSuds, I definitely agree and love the new philosophy built around defense.
Heck, maybe I am an idiot for wanting to keep Washburn over RRS…but I don’t think Jack Z has to give up both Bedard and Washburn and for some reason I still think Bedard may carry more value on the trade market than Washburn will.
We shall see!
That isn’t quite what I meant. But many of those, such as Mitch in the Morning and his former baseball analyst Jason Stark, who were both pro-Bedard and anti/neutral Putz, judge trades and moves by metrics such as ERA and “name value,” whatever the hell that is. And while plenty of info suggested that Gutierrez was fantastic, many refused to see it, just as they will refuse to see how Hardy could be better for the team now that one or both of the M’s starters.
If you use the better metrics and come to a conclusion that the proposed trade would be bad, so be it, but many of those who will rail against a trade such as this will do so because they don’t or won’t use the better metrics.
Zduriencik is using the better metrics, and so far he has done well.
Why would it benefit the M’s to “screw” over another team? So that GMs became wary of dealing with the M’s, making it less likely to acquire players via trade.
I like this idea.
Also, I didn’t know where else to put this [deleted, off-topic]
I dunno, I pretty much agree with the gist of what Alex just said. Teams out there are desperate to acquire pitchers to help with a stretch drive and are thus in a prime psychological position to overpay. It’s not about us lowly commentators overvaluing our pitchers, it’s about the GM staring a close race and a shaky staff in the face overvaluing our pitchers. I think we hold all the leverage this year and ought to max it out.
JJ Hardy is f’in sweet though and if they made the deal I guess I’d be OK with it. It’s just, yeah, I wanna screw over some people this year.
My only issue is that if our playoff odds are around 15% right now, which seems reasonable, why reduce those any more and still pretend you can win this year? I would actually make this move, because I like our chances a lot more next year than this year, but it seems like that if you’re going to do this, why not go into complete sell mode and try to get as good as possible for 2010? I guess maybe we don’t have much else to sell, though, what with Beltre’s injury. Branyan has to have some value though, you’d think.
I don’t agree with the idea of “screwing over” other teams. It’s about making the Mariners a better team, not about screwing over other teams.
Man, people are really overrating Washburn’s trade value. The guy was nearly untradeable at this point last year, and he’s only improved a tiny bit.
Getting Hardy is sort of like the Vizquel trade in reverse, isn’t it? Two and a half months of Bedard and Washburn versus Reggie Jefferson and Felix Fermin (i.e., nothing) . . . baseball valuations have sure changed in 14 years, haven’t they?
Is it even possible to “screw” over another team? Both sides have to agree to the trade, otherwise it doesn’t get made. If Bavasi thought that the asking price for Bedard so too high, he doesn’t make that trade. (He obviously didn’t and the trade was made)
Look at the Betancourt trade. Most everyone here would believe that he was swindled, but the Royals GM obviously liked the deal.
You’re only trading a rental of both Bedard and Washburn for the remainder of the year; you have to keep that in mind when you’re valuing these players. It’d be a vastly different case if they were under contract for another year or two under decent contracts, but that’s not the case.
Add in Bedard’s injury history, and Washburn’s shiny stats masking an only slightly improved pitcher, and you’re not getting some huge haul back in return for either of them.
JJ Hardy is still young, and good, and while he’s only under club control through 2010, we’ll have salary freed up to resign him, and he’s the kind of player who you can build a franchise with. He’s exactly the kind of player we should be trying to acquire, but the Brewers aren’t foolish, and they won’t be robbed.
Those “desperate” teams that make bad trades don’t really have the talent we need. Nor are there as many of them as some of you are implying.
What do you think of Hardy’s price tag as compared to Brignac’s? For the rest of this year, Hardy might be better, but I’ll take the five extra years of ownership and preferable handedness if at all possible. The hard part with Brignac is I’m not even sure what the Rays would want for him. They’re so deep. Where’s the weakness? Catcher? If they think Clement’s a catcher, that’s a start, but he’s clearly not enough. Do they need bullpen help? They have a lot of pitching. It seems like they can take care of that themselves. What else would they want?
Yes, I’d have to agree with most of the posters here. I would think Z would be able to get more than JJ Hardy for Bedard + Washburn — pitching (and power hitting) are typically the most valuable commodity at the trade deadline. Add in the fact that (purportedly) the Brewers want but can’t find pitching, and I think we could give up less for Hardy.
I think this is a case where the numbers don’t necessarily (fully) dictate what the M’s should do — teams’ needs + perceived value for Washburn right now > Washburn’s actual value, and I think we should take advantage of that. To me, this deal doesn’t.
I like Hardy, a lot. However, I think this would be nuts. I know that most of us were just hoping that the M’s would give away Washburn last season, but the situation has obviously changed. Washburn actually has value right now.
Why not go for Hardy with something like a Washburn-Cortes-Halman package? I would be terribly upset if the best the M’s can do with Bedard and Washburn is get a SS for 2010. This team needs some long-term talent too.
Also, looking at Hardy’s fangraph’s page, there does seem to be some red flags. Hardy’s K% has increased every full season of his career and his LD% has decreased every season. It may be nothing, but it is not a good trend.
Branyan has value to us, too; without him, our chances of contending in 2010 drop noticeably.
I should also note, Jeff over at LL was hinting that he knew what Melvin had asked from Zduriencik for Hardy (see the comments), and that the price was “fairly steep”; given that, I think it’s a safe bet that we aren’t going to be able to get him for one starter plus spare parts.
Coug in AZ: the fact that Melvin hasn’t dealt Hardy yet doesn’t mean that no one’s interested, it means that his asking price is high. (As it should be.)
PLU Tim: Cortes + Halman > Bedard in value.
They are if compensation is involved. Bedard is going to be a Type B and Washburn will likely be Type B as well.
I don’t like this idea if it means bringing Morrow back up. This team is finally set on developing him properly.
I’m all for bringing in Hardy but take into consideration he has been pretty awful at the plate this year. A .681 OPS in 300 ABs along with his other sagging peripherals at the plate sets him at well below a league average hitter.
The move to Safeco I also think would REALLY hurt Hardy. Moving to the AL and an extreme pitchers park compounded with his already poor performance at the plate sets Hardy at a huge disadvantage at the plate. Suddenly he’s not such an upgrade over Cedeno.
Dave,
Does the value of potential Type B free agent status come into play here? Washburn has a shot at that as well as Bedard, right?
Washburn has improved, I think that’s easy to see. His velocity is up, K/BB ratio is the highest it’s ever been in his career, his location is spot on and his cutter is doing work, inducing more groundballs than he’s ever managed to get. But he is old, his BAPIP is ridiculously low, almost .020 pts lower than his ‘02 season, and his flyballs are of course being hit in Safeco. His stuff is better than it has been the past two years, but he’s not an ace. The improved defensive play this year has helped him immensely.
If anything, Washburn is the throw in player.
Offering Washburn arbitration would be a bad idea. If you don’t offer arbitration, you don’t get a pick.
Jon Shields over at Pro Ball NW says that Washburn is close to Type B status. Would a year and a half of J.J. Hardy be worth more than two sandwich picks and half a season from Bedard and Washburn?
What (if any) value should we place on the Supplemental Round picks that Bedard and maybe Washburn will net the Mariners?
I would say there is about a 100% chance that Bedard will be at least Type B and a 50% chance or so that Washburn will be Type B. That would result in 1 or 2 sandwich round picks (depending on whether Washburn achieves Type B status).
I understand that pales in comparison to the value of a big leaguer like Hardy, but there is SOME value, even if it’s negligible.
All that offering Washburn arbitration would get us is another year of Washburn.
Washburn is a $9.5 million player this year (if I’m reading Fangraphs correctly). So offering Washburn arbitration isn’t completely unreasonable.
At 35, wouldn’t Washburn be looking to cash in after a revitalized season (real or imagined) with a multiyear deal?
I will gladly drink the Kool-Aid on this one, Dave, because I love JJ Hardy (the Brewers are my second team). That being said, I’d volunteer to poison the Kool-Aid if we got Brignac instead. I’d rather have a mlb-ready, projected average SS who bats lefty and is under control through 2015 than an All-Star SS who bats righty, is we control through 2010 (plus he’d cost only Bedard, right?). Plus, I’d worry about signing Hardy for his age 28-31 seasons (a 2011-2014ish contract) because a) he has a bad back (recurring spasms, etc.) b) he already has below average speed, despite his excellent defensive range (17 out of 100 on Baseball Cube, 2.9 out of 10 on FanGraphs), which makes me worry that he will hit his defensive cliff in his late 20s rather than the usual early 30s and c) He’d be a righty hitter with a relatively low career LD% of 17.1% (although he’s a slight ground ball hitter) who’d be hurt by Safeco.
Either way, I’d be a happy camper though.
You guys are vastly overvaluing Washburn. No one is giving him a multiyear deal, and if the team offers him arbitration, he will take it.
But you said it yourself, Dave – They have Escobar, Weeks (or McGehee, depending on what they do with Weeks) and Gamel ready for 2010. If the Brewers will be that compelled to get Hardy’s full value in 2010, they will do so at the expense of one of those players. Is Melvin going to take a spot away from one of them (each of whom is ML-ready) in 2010 because he didn’t get a second starter in this deal?
Hardy’s value is what it is, but I don’t think Melvin would put off Escobar until 2011 if he didn’t get Bedard AND Washburn in this deal.
I don’t see the Rays dealing Brignac for Bedard. Tell truth, I don’t have any real idea what they would want for him; that would probably need to be a three-way deal. Fact is, the Rays have no real incentive to deal Brignac at this point, so that wouldn’t be an easy one to make happen.
Oops. I guess Brignac would cost more than just Bedard, but I’d be fine with Bedard + Clement/Halman for him too.
After going through all the comments I am in favor of getting Hardy, but he is only under contract for 2010? How likely would a JJ extension be, is it a lock he will stay? People have been saying his numbers will drop in Safeco, his agent would probably know he’d create more value somewhere else, so it worries me post 2010.
Any idea of what the Pirates want/need for Snell and Sanchez? I’d love to acquire both, would Halman/Clement/LaHair be enough to get both? is that giving up too much? I’d prefer Snell starting this year over Morrow, and Sanchez playing over Lopez/Hannahan.
If we do get both Pirates can we create any value for Beltre? Sanchez and Hardy would give us no room for Adrian post 2009, would any team be interested enough to give up a low level prospect to have Beltre in September+possible post season?
Apologies for the rosterbating.
Honcho: no, Melvin’s going to go make a different deal, in that case. Sooner or later, someone will give him what he wants.
I fail to understand how you guys can simultaneously think that the presence of Escobar lowers Hardy’s value, but that somehow the presence of Morrow/Rowland-Smith don’t lessen Washburn and Bedard’s value. Should we take less than market value for Washburn because we have a capable replacement cooling his heels in Triple-A?
Apparently, none of you think so. So why should Milwaukee take less because they have a capable replacement cooling his heels in Triple-A.
The M’s are not the only team that will want JJ Hardy. We don’t have the Brewers over a barrel here.
Yeah I’d have to disagree that offering Washburn arb would be a bad thing. If he finishes the season with less than a 3.50 era, He’ll a get a 3 year 30 mill deal from somebody. At his age there’s no way he’d pass it up. Worse case Wash resigns for 10 mil or so for next year.
Did you not pay attention last winter?
That’s not what I was arguing – Hardy’s value is completely independent of Escobar. I’m just not sure either Washburn or Bedard for three months in 2009 is worth (1) keeping Escobar down in Nashville for another year, or (2) putting Hardy on the bench, or (3) putting Gamel or Weeks/McGehee on the bench.
I think you can also get the draft picks if the other team signs the player before the deadline to offer arbitration.
Yes, but a well ABOVE league average player still. Because his defense is really good. According to Fangraphs, right now he’s the best SS in the game. Overall, he’s no Hanley Ramirez, but he’s a pretty good player.
And, just as importantly, he’s MILES better than anything we have. We have a serious problem at SS, and that’s a hard problem to solve.
I really don’t get the “screw other teams” talk; we, as random blog commenters, are not supergeniuses in possession of information that MLB GMs don’t have. They know more than we do. And the fact is, you have to give up value to get value. We’re not going to get Hanley Ramirez for Washburn straight up no matter how badly you wish it was possible. And neither Wash nor Bedard is incredibly valuable right now. Valuable, but not incredibly so.
coasty: in what universe? Given the current economy, that kind of money just isn’t out there anymore for the likes of Washburn. Heck, when the Yankees traded for Eric Hinske, they made the Pirates send money to cover his contract. If we offer Washburn arbitration, he’ll wind up taking it, because it will be a lot more money than he’ll see next year otherwise.
And I mean that from a player development perspective, rather than a + runs/wins perspective.
I agree that there may be a little overvaluing of Bedard going on here, but I also think there is some serious undervaluing of Washburn as well.
Of course there is always the danger (for a potential buyer) that Washburn’s success this year is a contract year variance, but there seems to be a growing body of evidence that his Dolphin, or Flipper or whatever has really redefined him. He is a top 5 ERA left handed starting pitcher. I know it’s hard for us to get our heads around this because of his lack of success with Seattle, but if I was a GM looking to acquire either Bedard or Washburn right now I think I would take Washburn. Primarily because of Bedard’s injury history. Washburn also has post season experience (yes, I know not the results were iffy).
In a nutshell, I don’t think Bedard and change gets the Hardy deal done. I think Washburn and change does.
(1) keeping Escobar down in Nashville for another year, or (2) putting Hardy on the bench, or (3) putting Gamel or Weeks/McGehee on the bench.
(4) Trade him to someone who offers more than the Mariners.
(5) Keep him for the rest of 2009, then trade him this winter.
That you guys are ignoring these two possibilities is just weird.
“You guys are vastly overvaluing Washburn. No one is giving him a multiyear deal, and if the team offers him arbitration, he will take it.”
In the last 3 years Washburn has been worth 7.6,5.7, and 9.5mil. No one will offer him a multi year deal? Hmm… I’m not saying Wash is an all star (or that he should be paid like one) but I was under the impression the official USSM stance on Washburn was “He’s a little better than an average pitcher that the M’s are paying way to much for”. You make it sound like he doesn’t have the ability to make the M’s or any other team better.
Three years thirty million for Washburn hahahahahahaha.
You realize that’s basically the deal that we couldn’t DUMP him with last year, right, except he’s a year older and it’d be a year LONGER? With no signs that money will be any freer this coming offseason than last?
No, they made it sound like the economy’s in the tank and teams aren’t real interested in throwing around big multi-year deals for “a little better than average” anymore.
decatur7, you make some very strong points with your cogent research. After reading your post about some of the possible drawbacks I think Hardy might just be a bust for the Mariners. The sure thing is he will not show the same power playing half his games in the Safe. I would rather get back prospects.
Excuse me, to correct my inadvertent error: I should have said “a little worse than average” rather than quoting coasty (since this is the first of Washburn’s seasons with the M’s that he’s topped 2 WAR).
http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/27002249.html?page=1&c=y
Didn’t the Twins put in a claim on the waiver wire?
From this post that Dave wrote a while back:
Washburn has had some legitimate improvement this year, but he is not as good as his superficial numbers indicate. This means two things that many of you seem to be totally ignoring:
1) Those superficial numbers like ERA are what decide arbitration cases. What Washburn would get in arbitration would be substantially better than what he would get on the open market.
2) A lot of Washburn’s apparent improvement is smoke and mirrors, and the teams that have the assets we need (Brewers, Rays) are smart enough to know that.
It’s okay to disagree with what’s posted here, but I have a feeling that some of you are arguing for argument’s sake at this point, and it’s getting a little silly.
Didn’t the Twins put in a claim on the waiver wire?
Yes, but the M’s were unwilling to give him away. They wanted salary relief AND talent back, and the Twins said no thanks.
“Three years thirty million for Washburn hahahahahahaha”
Upon further review….
I’m definetly wrong. Outside of the Cards paying Lohse there isn’t another deal that would compare to Washburn getting the kind of money I suggested. I guess I’m going to hold off for a day or two on launching my betterthanussmariner.com site.
@mw3
I’d be overjoyed to see the M’s pull off the Wash + Bedard for Hardy deal. I just have reservations about signing him to a 4-5 year, $12-15 million a year contract after 2010.
“It’s okay to disagree with what’s posted here, but I have a feeling that some of you are arguing for argument’s sake at this point, and it’s getting a little silly.”
Not my intention. It just took me a little while to figure out why offering Washburn arb wouldn’t be wise.
decatur7, I doubt Hardy would be agreeable to signing with the Mariners long term, given his skill set. If were trading both pitchers I want at least one player who is guaranteed to be here after next year, even if that player is league average or has the potential to be.
Good point. I’m viewing this trade in a vacuum.
I’m totally for trading both Bedard and Washburn — and more if necessary — for Hardy. Think for a minute, people. Hardy is 26! He’s younger than Yuniesky Betancourt. He has had two 20+ HR years already and is just coming into his peak power years.
If Jack could re-up Beltre and sign Hardy past 2010, Seattle would have one of the best left-side defenses around — and RH bang to go with it.
One old left-hander and one injury-prone left-hander, both in their walk years, is cheap, cheap, cheap for the kind of upgrade this would give the M’s. Do it, Jack! Give them Clement and Halman in addition if that’s what it takes.
What would be a more reasonable projection on what Washburn will sign for after this season?
Dave – This is the craziest thing I seen you post!
Last offseason the Brewers couldn’t find a taker for Hardy because of his arbitration $$$’s, that ended up being $4.65M, and will no doubt jump another several million to around $7M for an ‘average’ hitting SS.
Yes he’s got great Defense, and yes he would be a major improvement over Yuni at SS while adding a little more pop…BUT FOR BOTH Bedard and Washburn? That is NUTS!
I don’t want anyone to think I’m a Washburn fan, especially after watching him in Mariner blue over the past 4 years, but in 2009 his numbers are close to Felix and Halladay. I can’t imagine him as the Cy Young in 2009, but the guy is going DEEP in every flippin game in the AL, with ONLY one horrible game all year…and the SP in all of MLB with the lowest run support since 2005!
I honestly believe that we be able to pick up JJ Hardy for someone like batista (if Seattle adds cash so the Brewers aren’t adding payroll) OR Lowe. RRS will be in the rotation in 2010, and Morrow is down in AAA for a reason…he needs the rest of 2009 to continue to learn how to control his pitches and prepare for 2010. We also have Chad Cordero that should be ready to go, I’m surprised I haven’t heard anything regarding Cordero all year so far, but he’s a bullpen fillin if Batista or Lowe were traded.
We also need to wait until 1-2 weeks, right up to the deadline, before we jump ship for this year.
Your Bedard/Washburn for JJ trade is jumping ship, and you didn’t mention anything about his 2009 salary and 2010 arbitration salary that will jump to about $7M.
I’m sure you will disagree, but the way Washburn is pitching EVERY NL team will be throwing decent prospects at the M’s just for Washburn. Z has done an amazing job with ALL his moves this year to restock our farm, and acquire talent this past year. Washburn and our Defense are the reason we are in the thick of this race…you move Bedard AND Washburn it’s a salary dump and writing the 2009 season off by adding prospects NOT a $5M SS that will be cost us $7M+ in 2010. You DONT trade top of rotation (1-3) starters UNLESS you are admiting defeat AND stocking up top “prospects”…NOT 5-6 year Arbitration eligible “expensive” players.
And to top it all off you are suggesting that Seattle throw in CASH on this trade???!!!
What the &*()&%*$#()#&*$()?????!!!!!
I enjoy the majority of your posts, but this post is about as good as keeping Cedeno in LF with his LF UZR!
NO DICE. And “if” Z is reading this please just laugh at Dave’s post and move on to the next subject or site!
This pretty much sums it up.
Baker was advocating Bedard & Morrow to get Hardy this morning.
I have total confidence that Z will do what is best for the M’s by July deadline for this year.
He’s one of the best compitent GMs out there that knows talent.
I will be onboard with whatever decision he makes, because he’s earned my trust!
I can see him picking up Hardy, but not at the cost of Bedard/Washburn. AND if Z throws in the 2009 towel in the next 1-2 weeks I will guarantee Seattle will be getting a boat load of prospects for Bedard AND Washburn!
Bedard comes out in his 1st game back, on a ‘limited’ PC and throws up 8Ks in 3.2 innings. His last outing throws up 5.2 innings with 5K’s against “Texas”, while Batista blows his lead (but later takes the Win).
If Z throws in the towel we will be looking a LOT prettier than a JJ Hardy my friend!
[meta, please email moderation complaints]
I honestly believe that we be able to pick up JJ Hardy for someone like batista (if Seattle adds cash so the Brewers aren’t adding payroll) OR Lowe.
This made my day.
I’m still trying to figure out if those comments are brilliant satire or if they’re for real.
The M’s are not the only team that will want JJ Hardy. We don’t have the Brewers over a barrel here.
Dave – Like I said earlier…Brewers were shopping Hardy hard all offseason, but couldn’t dump him because of his arbitration. And THEN when his arb figures came in at $4.65M they couldn’t give him away.
Go back and review all of the Brewers trade tumors on MLBTradeRumors.com! Nobody would touch him and his salary.
And Jeff I’m trying to figure out if Dave’s post today are for real?!
Brewers were shopping Hardy hard all offseason, but couldn’t dump him because of his arbitration.
The easily could have dumped him. What team wouldn’t want him for free? Trouble is, the Brewers actually want something in return. Whatever Hardy earns in arbitration, it’s not enough to give away a talented shortstop.
I had nothing to do with the apostrophe moderating earlier.
I don’t want anyone to stop commenting here. I want people to think more before they comment. For better or worse, what you guys post reflects on the site. So, I don’t think its too much to ask to tell people to think through their comments before they post them. Saying stuff like “Bedard is a throw-in” is stupid, and it reflects badly on USSM as a whole.
Spit take!
I honestly believe you’re guano insane.
Dave – Like I said earlier…Brewers were shopping Hardy hard all offseason, but couldn’t dump him because of his arbitration. And THEN when his arb figures came in at $4.65M they couldn’t give him away.
This is absolutely, 100% not true. You don’t get to make stuff up and pass it off as truth.
Go back and review all of the Brewers trade tumors on MLBTradeRumors.com! Nobody would touch him and his salary.
December 3: SI.com’s Jon Heyman says the Giants asked the Brewers about J.J. Hardy, but Milwaukee doesn’t want to move him. So Brian Sabean moved on to Cantu.
November 12: Rosenthal: With multiple vacancies in the rotation and bullpen, the Brewers may need to see what kind of pitching Mike Cameron and/or J.J. Hardy can bring in return. GM Doug Melvin is not ready to shop Hardy. He’s received interest, but most teams have not given names (one team suggested swapping him for a pitcher Melvin termed, “a fifth starter.”
November 19: There seems to be “some dialog” between the Giants and Brewers regarding Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy. However, Schulman notes that teams across the league, the Brewers included, are hesitant to give up everyday players in exchange for anything but top-tier pitching.
And so on. Are you thinking of a different player?
When I think of Hardy, I then think of Gutierrez. And then I smile….oh, those UZRs. What kind of a team UZR could we end up with at the end of the year if we added him? 80?
Just want to add two cents here:
A.) Bedard is barely playing due to injuries and most of Washburn’s success is depending on pitching. These aren’t quality players; you got a talented pitcher who can’t stay healthy and #4 starter in the back of the rotation. Did everyone forget about the whole “ERA is misleading” information that the USSMariner has provided us for years?
B.) JJ Hardy is already earned about $6-7 million this year, despite having the worse hitting year of his career. 7 million for him is not “expensive,” that is one of the best bargains in baseball.
As proposed, this is still more “sell” than a “buy.” We get (a little) worse for this year. I think what makes that hardest to swallow is that we get worse for this year, we lose the draft pick (only one assuming you don’t offer arb to Washburn), AND we only get one more year of Hardy. If the Brewers want pitching and, according to coolstandings, have a better shot at the playoffs, isn’t performance this year more valuable to them? This isn’t a bad trade, but I hope we could leverage our current pitchers a little more than this.
Dave, I want to say that I have learned a TON reading USSM the past two years. Probably the area that I have learned the most about is how to value defense. I have been a fan of baseball for a long time and have always believed in pitching and defense to build a team but this site has shown me that defense is a huge part of that and that pitching can be overrated.
Learning about WAR And UZR have been great and I can’t tell you how many times I refer friends to this site and talk to my Dab about USSM (he doesn’t do the internet
With that said, I sure hope the opinion that the M’s should not deal BOTH Bedard and Washburn for Hardy doesn’t reflect poorly on USSM. Again, not saying that it’s a bad idea and I see your logic, I just think the team should try and go another route besides dealing both of them.
Now, after thinking more about my idea of Wash and RRS, I do agree that idea is not good for the long-term. But if we could do Bedard and a Balentien type, I would really like that. Or Washburn and a Balentien or someone else like that.
Maybe those ideas aren’t even close, but I am hoping the team can get Hardy and keep ONE of either Bedard or Washburn.
Dave, my other question would be do you want Bedard with the M’s past this year?
Again, thank you for your insights, I have learned a ton!
What is the backup plan with an injury to one of the remaining 5 SP? Random AAA arm and hope for the best? FA?
In the beginning of the year we prayed our two vet pitchers would do good, so we could trade them for other pieces of the puzzle that make a winning team. Great, they are doing more than we thought. Everyone’s excited because we’re four games out at the all-star break, these two have helped but its time for Z to do his thing. I trust him in whatever direction he takes us. These two guys will be gone at the end of the year,we have guys who show promise and can replace them. Question, whats the history of the players teams get from a ‘B’ type draft? How long does it take to develop them?
Statements like this make me ignore everything else you say. My apologies if this was satire. If you actually believe this… well, I guess I’m sorry for that too.
Also, you need to stop paying attention to mlbtraderumors.com.
Seconded.
Nobody is denying that Washburn has made improvements this year, but you realize that his “amazing dolphin flipper pitch” is just a slow curve ball, and his shiny ERA has more to do with our outfield than his improvements. He and Bedard are both going to walk for nothing – definitely from us, and quite possibly from the teams they are traded to. There’s just not that much value there.
Hardy is something like the best defensive shortstop in the game right now, he’s young, and is under contract for another year. He has value.
As Dave has stated, this is an obvious move.
If Zduriencik were to make this trade tomorrow?
The same people who thought the Bedard trade was acceptable because this team needed an ace will be the same people who light the torches and raise the pitchforks.
I certainly feel that Zduriencik and many other front office personnel know how to value players appropriately, but for the Mariners to make this move could be a potential PR nightmare if the M’s were to suddenly drop out of contention after the trades completion.
I don’t know if the old-school Mariners would be willing to risk that kind of debacle, even if the source of the outcry were brain-numb couch GM’s like the 950 commentators and their ilk.
With that in mind I think this move becomes much more likely later this month if the Mariners were to drop out of contention and less likely if they gain on the Angels and Rangers.
I’m fine with trading Bedard and Washburn for Hardy, or whatever value we can get for them that will improve the team in the future. I’m just not buying the argument that replacing Bedard and Washburn in the rotation with Morrow and RRS wouldn’t be throwing the towel in on the season.
I also don’t want to see Morrow rushed back up into the rotation. His development has already been jacked up enough as it is.
With that said, I sure hope the opinion that the M’s should not deal BOTH Bedard and Washburn for Hardy doesn’t reflect poorly on USSM.
As long as your opinion is backed up with logic and reason, you can have any opinion you want. It’s crap like the “he’s a throw-in” or “trade 19 guys to Pittsburgh!” that gives blogs a bad name.
Just put some thought into your comments (which, obviously, you have) and make sure they pass the reason test and you’ll be fine.
The Royals just gave up two living breathing bodies for Yuni. Isn’t there some bad FO that would similarly overvalue Washburn? Sure, WE all know he’s not as good as his ERA indicates, but there are clearly people who don’t. Mets? Phillies?
Bedard is such a volatile asset that I think he absolutely should be moved if we can get value, but I would have to think the two of them be worth more if dealt separately. I would have to think some GM would roll the dice on Washburn and his ERA.
If we were to get value for both players the only thing I would be worried about is that our pitching depth would be a bit thin, but if you can fill the lineup then we can live with that.
If for any reason I would love to see these two dealt solely to see media go bonkers.
Wouldn’t it make more sense to target Wilson to upgrade short because he certainly could be had for something relatively painless.
Then either keep Bedard and Washburn or flip them for other stuff….
Why wouldn’t that scenario get the Ms even farther ahead?
Hardy can be signed as a free agent roughly as easily as he could be extended.
I think trading Bedard and Washburn for Hardy is ludicrous. I can’t believe you used up all that time for this kind of proposed deal. Hardy is a nice player, but trading Clement and Washburn or Bedard might be okay.
You keep say “we” are overvaluing these players as if you have a value chart of what every player is worth. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Bedard supports say he’s one of the best pitchers in the league when he’s out there, others say he’s a throw in and injury prone and a bust. Spin it how you want, but there is no spinning that this is a horrible trade offer and to balk at people questioning that makes this all the more narrow minded.
“free-agents-to-be” is another term that is thrown around too many times to support your argument. Just because these players haven’t resigned doesn’t mean a darn thing. If there value is so overinflated by us like you say, then it should be no problem keeping both of them at a reasonable price.
I’ll take my chances resigning both of our overvalued players and have them be overvalued for another year while posting sub 3.00 ERA’s and strong K to BB ratios.
I just dont like trading both of these guys for a player who not only wont be a huge upgrade over what we already have (cedeno/woodward) but like another commenter mentioned earlier has signs of an early decline. I’d rather give up more than the two for a prospect with a higher ceiling (though i know of no such prospects myself) and there almost undoubtably will be a team that thinks they are playoff ready with two pitchers like Bedard and Washburn, and willing to give up a top tier product to make that happen.
That said, if you say goodbye to both of these (maybe even one of them) this team won’t play well in the post season even if they make it, no matter how good the defense is. I dont agree with Baker much, but you need at least two shutdown pitchers or an amazing offense to win a world series (as the last ten years have indicated, on the pitching side that means the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox). Winning teams need to have a few games that they can pencil in from the start as wins. RRS, Olson, and Vargas are all guys that I like, but they are far from an automatic win that Bedard or Washburn could be. If the mariners want to go that route, I’m not going to complain, but if this team really wants to contend, they need AT LEAST two shutdown pitchers, and I’m not sure how long we will have to wait for one of the guys we have to become that guy. By then we may not even have Felix anymore. Hell, M’s fans should know better than most that one ace (Freddy) doesn’t cut it. Washburn and Bedard are no Schilling, Wakefield, Johnson, Beckett, or Lester, but do we really have pitchers with Bedard/Washburns talent level?
Ok now that I’ve had time to cool off and drive home from work let me clarify a couple of things.
Back in February/March I was commenting on the SP that would benefit the most from our improved D was Washburn. His numbers are what they are because of the Seattle OF Defense.
Do I want Seattle to offer arbitration this offseason? No.
Do I want Z to extend Bedard for 2-3 additional years? Yes.
I’m worried that Bedard will walk, because about 5-6 weeks ago Bedard made a public comment that he’d love to resign with Seattle…BUT there have been no talks with Seattle and his agenty. That right there tells me the are either going to trade Bedard. I would feel a little more comfortable if Bedard was extend soon.
So yes there is the issue of losing Bedard & Washburn for nothing come October that none of us want.
I do feel throwing both Bedard/Washburn for JJ is rediculous, and “could” live with Washburn for JJ and put RRS in the rotation. Morrow is not ready to be a fulltime MLB SP, and needs more time in AAA. If we moved Washburn’s LHPing, RRS could fillin ok with better defense at SS with JJ.
Someone was quoting a GM above and the quote stated:
“one team suggested swapping JJ for a pitcher Melvin termed, “a fifth starter.—
That was my point when I stated that the Brewers couldn’t get nothing of value for JJ last year with his 2009 $4.65M salary. A 5th starter is a far cry from an ACE or a #3 SP like Washburn. And the way Washburn is pitching this year he’s more like a #2, but we all know that it’s because of Seattle’s OF Defense.
I mentioned a Batista for JJ trade, and someone that that was rediculous. Well, it probably was…but I did mention Seattle throwing in cash to make up the salary difference so there was no additional money out of the Brewers pockets. Plus Batista’s numbers in long relief have been stellar this year, he has decent closer numbers (prior to Seattle), and he’s been a starter. So he’s pretty versatile.
I like USSM’s post about a week or so ago about shipping off Lowe, because he’s not as good as his numbers indicate this year. USSMs analysis was right on with Lowe, and he’s got trade value, especially considering there are a TON of NL teams in desperate need for quality RP.
I just think we could land JJ for a lot less than Bedard and/or Washburn! If I recall right, last 1 or 2 weeks ago rumors are out that the Dodgers were hot to trot for Washburn. Philly’s too are desperate for rotation AND bullpen help…thus the Pedro physical tomorrow. But Gillick’s got to be kind of nervous about laying his entire season on the line with Pedro’s 5+ ERA running out there every 5 games.
Seattle has the upper chips on a Bedard and/or Washburn trade, and I’m totally convinced that Z will pull off the most incredible deal for one or both of them that will make all of our heads spin.
And we thought the Putz trade should get him the GM of the year, just wait until Seattle is out of contention in the next 2 weeks…Z will look like a genious! I will accept whatever he does, because he has done nothing but gain my trust since his 1st day on the job!
Jack Wilson also is not that good of a player. Not to mention why keep Bedard and Washburn when they are not going to help us next year?
… Which Melvin rejected if you read the whole quote.
Well, there is the peskiness left to trudge through that some call this year….
Also, adding Wilson doesn’t preclude trading either Bedard or Washburn or both….
What a crazy thread. And what a brilliant trade scenario.
There’s a few reasons why Washburn is better this year. Those reasons are called Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, and Ryan Langerhans. He’s walking after this year, there’s no reason to offer him arbitration, and so he’s worth almost nothing to the M’s past ‘09.
Same deal with Bedard. Good pitcher, body made of glass, badly needs a change of scenery, will also be walking after the season. I won’t be too sad to see him go, either.
J.J. Hardy’s glove is good enough that he’s been worth 1.5 WAR even with his crappy offense (which has been improving lately). Really, this trade almost makes too much sense not to make. Who cares what the Bakers and talk radio goons think? Yeah, the casual fan base will be unhappy at first, but watch how quickly they fill the stadium if the team is still playing meaningful baseball in September.
I don’t think the asking price is too high at all. Doug Melvin is much, much smarter than, say, Dayton Moore. He knows how much a league-average SS is worth on the market, and he knows not to overvalue volatile assets like Washburn and Bedard. There’s no way he’s going to let his former colleague bend him over a stump. Zduriencik knows this as well. Honestly, it’s a match made in heaven.
Do it, Jack. Bedard and Washburn for Hardy. If you must, throw in cash or Wlad or something. The opportunity to have a legitimate SS for the first time since Carlos Guillen is worth whatever price it takes.
DRFelix,
Seriously, where are you getting the idea that the Brewers wanted to give away J.J. Hardy?
The only way the M’s get JJ for Batista is if you manage to pull it off in MLB 2K9.
Hardy looks to be about a half win better than Wilson offensively over the remaining 75 games with the difference possibly being as much as a win. Both are likely very similar from a defensive value standpoint.
I’m fairly confident that Bedard/Washburn are 1.5 wins better than Morrow/RRS as Dave argued above.
Deave’s post undervalues the pitchers (time value – i.e. winning now – should give greater precedence to 2009 results) and helps to outline the perspective of USSM writers with their eye on future gains as greater than current gains (perhaps a conditioned response to the previous GM). The post argues for a -5 run trade during a playoff run.
Z should have more leverage than that. Any drop in rotation quality will have the additional effect of exposing the bullpen, so this proposal may even be a -10 run trade.
With what we know of Snell, perhaps a three-way trade returning him and Hardy for the departure of Bedard and Wash would be more prudent – a help us win now and later approach.
Wouldn’t it make more sense to target Wilson to upgrade short because he certainly could be had for something relatively painless.
He’s be an all defense player. J.J. Hardy brings offense and defense to the table.
AS for trading Washburn and Bedard I’m kinda meh just because the fact I like the fact that Bedard can own the league any given day and they’re in a walk year and you’re not gonna gain anything by keeping Washburn.(Even if you do offer arbitration if/when he accepts you’re screwed. Though since Bedard is a type B he might be worth keeping.) The ERA is shiny and makes Washburn value increase so if we get JJ Hardy for Washburn + another player I’m all for it.(even if it includes Bedard.)
terry I like you post:
“Wouldn’t it make more sense to target Wilson to upgrade short because he certainly could be had for something relatively painless.
Then either keep Bedard and Washburn or flip them for other stuff….
Why wouldn’t that scenario get the Ms even farther ahead?”
I totally agree. JJ’s defense is about the same as Wilson’s this year, and his offensive numbers are better than JJs. Sanchez has been on the trading block too, and I think I would personally prefer Sanchez, because of career 302 BA bat for gap hitting and moving runners around. FanGraphs has Sanchez’s 2009 value at $11.1M, approx $6M for JJ, and a little more than $8M for Wilson.
The Pirates are looking to dump salary, and would want cheap guys under club control like Lowe, etc. I don’t know what it would take to land Wilson or Sanchez, but I’d go that route before dumping Bedard/Washburn for JJ.
Slurve – You have more pop in JJ’s bat, but right now he’s on pace for 18 HRs this year, and Safeco will drop that number down even more.
JJ goes through horrible offensive slumps that will be painful to watch. I’d take a 270 hitter in Wilson, with stellar defense over a 232 BA hitter. But Sanchez has the bat and defense I’d prefer over both of them. Sanchez and Wilson are making pretty close to the same salary with an option 2010 $0.6M buyout.
I’d be happy with JJ’s 15-20 HRs at Safeco with his D as long as it wasn’t at the cost of Bedard and/or Washburn.
Doug Melvin is seriously going to flip a 4 win star player for two impending FA pitchers with their own respective question marks, because he has a prospect waiting in line and some extra infield depth.
Okay then.
Comment thread of the year?
Dave, assuming this trade happens you would prefer the M’s insert Morrow instead of bringing in another pitcher (Snell or whomever)?
[i]I’d be happy with JJ’s 15-20 HRs at Safeco with his D as long as it wasn’t at the cost of Bedard and/or Washburn.[/i]
You’re losing both Bedard and Washburn at the end of the year. If you can get value out of both of them while you can you do it.
Wilson is also notably older then Hardy, having a career year and is probably going to decline further. Not to mention Hardy had an awful start and is an average hitter as of right now.
I pronounce the Hardy-for-Bedard-and-Washburn idea completely solid, doable and probably as fine of an idea as what could reasonably be done right now.
Some of the naysayers or those on the fence have had interesting ideas as offshoots, but largely not logical/doable in real-life baseball. The “36 pieces of driftwood for 3 established Pitt players” was my favorite.
A lot of us seem to have this idea that there is more value in Washburn and especially Bedard than what in truth there is.
Let me just say, for the record: there is no team out there that is going to give us a premium package for three months of the talents of either of them.
That being so said, you have to maximize those two. Turn them into something of value as bast as what you can.
Type B draft picks doesn’t qualify as value, especially if you have to run the risk of them accepting your mandatory arby offer.
I think Dave’s idea is about the best I’ve heard. I’d be extremely happy if the M’s got a young SS they can control until either Triunfel/someone else is ready or they can sign to an extension for reasonable money.
Keep in mind, by 2011 I think it’s an iffy proposition that Triunfel will be ready, but he’ll certainly be a year closer and 2010 is a whole year to assess and address what is needed.
I’d love to say there’s a way to finagle a Jason Heyward-Alcides Escobar level of talent out of teams for those two, but there isn’t.
In Bedard’s case, it’s well-documented what we gave up for him and how bad it was for us- oh, well. Move on. I’d rather have Hardy than two Grade-B prospects, which really might even be wishful thinking that we could get that much for a guy as well-acquainted with the DL as what Bedard is.
And I can just hear some of you scream “well, we got that much for Betancourt!” after that last sentence. The Royals were desperate, shortstops are scarce. That upped Yuni’s value.
It’s not the same with Bedard and Washburn. There are quite a few options besides them that are and will be available. Dave is right, we don’t have anyone over a barrel on this one.
Turn Washburn and Bedard into J.J. Hardy and we’ll be doing just fine.
i might even do a naked cartwheel all down 4th and Stewart if it happens.
As long as your opinion is backed up with logic and reason, you can have any opinion you want. It’s crap like the “he’s a throw-in†or “trade 19 guys to Pittsburgh!†that gives blogs a bad name.
Just put some thought into your comments (which, obviously, you have) and make sure they pass the reason test and you’ll be fine.
Thanks Dave, we are on the same page here. Thanks again for all you do on this site!
Problem with that is, Trunfel probably isn’t going to stick at SS. His future lies at either 3B, 2B or the corner outfield.
I must say this comment thread is one of the more interesting one all year. I think it’s because it is so debatable.
I find myself swayed by many of the observations regarding Hardy and would be happy to get him, but ultimately I’m against the trade as offered because we get Hardy for only one extra year AND we end up jerking Morrow up and down like a yo yo yet again (if all goes according to this master plan).
Morrow is finally where he belongs, at triple AAA forced to throw his secondary pitches for outs until he gets it. Why screw up the Morrow situation yet again to gain for a marginal gain at SS for only one more year?
I pull the trigger if it’s one of the two and change.
Pittsburgh is rebuilding again. Getting four or five established major league players under team control for many years for an aging middle infield and a pitcher that is guaranteed to leave would be a coup. The reason it might not be popular is because it smacks of the Bedard trade all over again. But, the Mariners have a legitimate chance to win it all. Felix and Bedard in the playoffs is the most formidable one and two in the AL for sure. The only thing close is Verlander and Jackson and Detroit might not make the playoffs.
I would absolutely hate this trade. trade two of the better starting pitchers in the majors this year for Hardy? We’re only in the position we are because we’ve had great pitching. There is no way I would be happy with this trade. Dave, I usually like your stuff, but this trade would completely take us out of contention. RRS and Morrow are NOT ready for the big-time, especially not during a playoff run.
Well you can save us the naked escapade, Z ain’t gonna give up 2 top starters for JJ.
Someone mentioned above: “Not to mention Hardy had an awful start and is an average hitter as of right now.”
EVERY year JJ goes thru these “awful” starts, and horrible slumps all throughout the year. If you thought Sexson’s offense was bad, JJ is a worse rally killer.
SonOfZavaras – You stated “It’s not the same with Bedard and Washburn. There are quite a few options besides them that are and will be available.”
Are you kidding me?! Peavy is out. The only thing of value besides Bedard/Washburn is Halladay, and Halladay will cost more than what Seattle gave up for Bedard! Don’t kid yourself, Bedard and Washburn both have decent trade value.
Just sit back and let Z do his work. Come August 1st there will be another thread to rant and rave how awesome the Z Man is by what he was able to accomplish!
Bedard and Washburn are not two of the better starting pitchers in the league.
Wrong. Defense. Defense. Defense. Dave has been hammering this into our heads all year. It’s the defense that put us in the position we are.
“Average” shortstops are extremely valuable. How hard is that to comprehend? The Sexson comparison is ridiculous for obvious reasons.
J.J. Hardy might be Jack Wilson at Safeco Field.
it’s funny how people refuse to give any credit to washburn for the job he’s done this year. Sure, our defense is great, but washburn has been great as well. Our defense couldn’t help silva look competent
Once a major deal is done the panic will set in for the rest of the clubs in that division and the rest of MLB will take notice as well If, for example, the Angels were to pickup a major add like Roy Halladay wouldn’t that raise the heat for the Rangers and the M”s. ? The Cubs need pitching how are they going to react if the Brewers pickup Washburn watch the divisional competition heat up. Why not value the two veteran lefties as the two best lefties who are available for a Championship push. That’s what P. Gammons announced and he’s a pretty good evaluator of situations. The Brewers have a shot at a Championship and have the SS replacement within their organization for Hardy right now. I doubt we give them both Washburn and Bedard
I was interested in Snell earlier, but figured we didn’t need him, with our excess starting pitching, this would be a fairly good pickup if we can do this deal to justify it.
Sure, our defense is great, but washburn has been great as well.
Washburn has been average. He gets credit for that. He has not been great.
Keep in mind, by 2011 I think it’s an iffy proposition that Triunfel will be ready, but he’ll certainly be a year closer and 2010 is a whole year to assess and address what is needed.
Problem with that is, Trunfel probably isn’t going to stick at SS. His future lies at either 3B, 2B or the corner outfield.
Quite true, Benne. But if there’s even a 10% chance Triunfel can stick at short, then I have to allow for it. His bat’s what going to get him to the show no matter where he plays.
And like I said, 2010 can be a year to find the long-term solution there.
SonOfZavaras – You stated “It’s not the same with Bedard and Washburn. There are quite a few options besides them that are and will be available.â€
Are you kidding me?! Peavy is out. The only thing of value besides Bedard/Washburn is Halladay, and Halladay will cost more than what Seattle gave up for Bedard! Don’t kid yourself, Bedard and Washburn both have decent trade value.
I never said they didn’t have decent trade value, my point was that the multiple-premium prospect packages for them were simply not going to happen and figments of the imagination.
Therefore, you maximize them AMAP.
And as for Bedard and Washburn being the only value besides Halladay: Wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Couldn’t be more wrong.
Ian Snell is available, for one. Take the #3 starter for any team clearly not in it this year and THEY will be available, for the right price and if the money makes sense. Especially if said #3 starter has been productive, is young, doesn’t make a ton of cash yet and is under team control for a year-plus.
You have to look beyond just the trade rumor blogs and the big, big names. Just because the name’s not bandied about in print doesn’t mean that it’s off-the-market.
look at Snell’s fangraphs page. He’s been regressing. I don’t know if I’d want him. RRS and Morrow would both be better options
Why do you think that Washburn has been great?
Washburn’s 2009 K/9: 5.77
League Average: 6.88
Washburn’s 2009 BB/9: 2.24
League Average: 3.52
Washburn’s 2009 LOB%: 77.6%
League Average: 71.7%
Washburn’s 2009 BABIP: .253 (Thanks defense!)
League Average: .300
Yeah, he’s a decent pitcher. He might actually earn his contract this year. But what exactly is it that makes him great? He’s managed to improve his FIP by almost a full run over his previous Mariner years. I’ll give the defense some of the credit and I’ll give him the rest.
Sadly, I don’t think even that 10% chance exists. Here’s what Jay Yenich had to say about it in an LL thread (in the comments section):
On the possibility of moving to corner OF:
I trust Jay’s word on this, so it looks like Triunfel is either a 3B or 2B, with COF as a possible last resort.
Snell’s WAR over the last three years has dropped from 3.4 to 1.3 to .6. His K/9 have gone from 7.66 to 7.39 to 5.8, and His BB/9 have increased over the last 3 years from 2.94 to 4.91. I’m just not that impressed with him.
One of the great threads I’ve had the pleasure to read over the years here at USSM. Not well-qualified to render an overall opinion on Dave’s well-thought out opinion but I would say this: anyone who is counting on Bedard delivering ~6+ regular innings from now through October (hear our prayer, Oh Lord) is depending on the frailest of reeds. He is simply not a durable pitcher. Maybe the Ms would get that much performance out of him but given his record of fragility and/or hypochrondria it’s most definitely not a sure thing. We knew that when we got him and, unfortunately, he’s lived up to expectations 100%. There’s no obvious reason to suspect things will be any different next month or in September which, for my money, makes hanging on to him a real crap shoot.
Navio, I like how you only picked the stats that help your argument. Wash’s WAR this year is already at 2.1, He’s giving up much less Fly balls (and HR/9), and in turn more GB’s. I shouldn’t say he’s been great, but he’s been very solid. I have confidence in Wash when he’s out there. Can you say the same about morrow right now?
I would recommend reading this. Snell is a perfect buy-low candidate.
Defense is NOT the reason the Mariners are at where they are today. [It's] the pitching. You [don't] have your top 3 starters with ERA’s below 3 and barely over .500 because of defense. If each of Felix, Bedard, and Washburn had ERA’s around 4, this club would be FAR from contention. They struggle scoring runs. If they were to make the playoffs, [it's] because the pitching carried them all the way there. You can have good defense, but if you have Carlos Silva pitching and Ronny Cedeno taking reps at the plate, you’re in trouble.
I would trade Washburn and change for Hardy, but not much more. The guy has had a terrible year. [Don't] start the “bad start” because he hit .228 in June, and .225 in July. [That's] pathetic. We have enough of that on the team as is. I would prefer trading for Reid Brignac or some other prospects, which is what I see JackZ doing. He will gather a few prospects for each, adding depth to the system.
[This] is a SELLERS market. Teams down the stretch want GOOD PITCHING. Washburn and Bedard have ERA’s below 3.00. This will cause teams to get desperate and give up extra, especially if Seattle throws cash in as well.
His FB rate is 39.9%, a grand total of 3.5 less than career average. His HB/FB rate (a more reliable stat than HR/9) is 8.0%, a grand total of 0.6 less than his career average. His GB rate is 38.2%, a grand total of 2.0 over his career average. Those are marginal improvements, but hardly enough to qualify him as a “solid” pitcher, more like “kinda averege-ish pitcher who’s been helped out by some incredible defense and luck.”
Sell sell sell.
Actually, I picked out the stats he was in control of that had league averages on Fangraphs as well. But, I appreciate the accusation!
Nobody’s denying that he’s been average, or “solid”, as you put it. In fact, I’d agree that he’s actually been above average this year. How much of that the defense is responsible for is obviously debatable. His GB/FB is still under 1, and I don’t want my fellow Mariner fans to fall victim to the same thing Bavasi did in the ‘05 offseason. Look at his GB/FB from 2005, it’s even better than it is now.
We’ve gone 25-16 since May 26 and we’ve lost ground on the Angels. We’re 4 games back, have 2 teams in front of us, and we’re running out of time. Do you think the Angels are going to do nothing to improve themselves and the Mariners will continue to play .600+ the rest of the year? I hope so just as much as I’m sure you do, but I don’t think it’s very likely.
No, I can’t say that I have confidence in Morrow right now. Absolutely not. But, if we have a trade in which we practically steal a 4 WAR SS for 2010 and only lose 5 runs for 2009 in a year where it’s unlikely we’re going to go anywhere anyway, then I’m absolutely in favor of it.
You dont have your top 3 starters with ERA’s below 3 and barely over .500 because of defense. If each of Felix, Bedard, and Washburn had ERA’s around 4, this club would be FAR from contention.
If we had the 2008 Mariners defense, those three pitchers WOULD have ERAs around 4. Or higher. I don’t understand how anyone can pretend that defense has no effect on ERA.
Do you think we could pry Cory Hart from them as well? We need a LF. Though Langerhans is ok on defense, the bat leaves something to be desired. And Hart can play good defense and can swing a pretty good stick as well. We may have to get a 3rd team envolved in order to get both Hart and Hardy, But I think it’s worth a shot.
Stop using ERA to evaluate pitchers. Defense is far and away the biggest reason why the M’s are in contention.
Silva hasn’t stepped on a mound in months, and there’s no indication he will anytime soon. Cedeno is only a band-aid solution until we get a legitimate SS (presumably Hardy, which would render this point moot anyway)
And in turn, stop using batting average to evaluate hitters. Hardy has had a down season offensively, but his glove has been good enough to make up for that and be a league-average shortstop. Even his bad offensive numbers would be a massive improvement over Yuni/Cedeno.
Nah, Hart doesn’t really have a place here. The team has more outfielders than they know what to with. Guti and Ichiro are entrenched in CF and RF. Langerhans is a perfectly decent stopgap in LF while Saunders waits in the wings, and we still have Wlad and Ackley and Halman. What we really need is infielders, Hart doesn’t really fit into those plans.
Come on people.
You’d be lucky to get a power-hitting glove man at shortstop for a year of Bedard and Washburn.
Just because you can fleece the Minaya’s and Moore’s of the GM world doesn’t mean everyone is lining up to do your team favors.
Try thinking of it from the standpoint of a Brewers fan who isn’t a blithering idiot.
Today’s thread has compelled me to make my first comment.
I think of a couple things when reading the recent comments.
1. Quoting WAR doesn’t show that a pitcher (Washburn) is causing or performing a sustainable level. It shows that his results have been particularly good.
His LOB% and BABIP show him benefiting from having upwards of three golve players in the field.
2. Snell seems to be on the opposite side of the scale from Washburn he is getting burned by luck, and his FIP shows it.
To applaud Washburn and bury Snell is to do what the Mariners have done for too long. Snell would be much like the other accquistions that Zduriencik has so artfully done this year.
Lastly, I think the Hardy situation is interesting. We praise Beltre because we’ve learned through this site to appreciate what he brings. But I think people are ignoring the logic we use on Beltre in the Hardy situation.
He’s not going to be an offensive freak but he will likely fall in the -5 – +5 range over a copule of years, but when you throw in the defensive skills it would be a true gift to have at SS which as we know has been a great suckhole recently.
Honestly looking at how well Cedeno has played recently I do not see Hardy or Wilson as much of an upgrade.
The team should look for a LF that can hit third and pick it. Matt Holliday?
Snell is a must for the Mariners to me, low buy, proven arm, and he won’t have the mentality of the Pirates are behind me. Add in our defense (maybe even plus Hardy/Wilson; Sanchez) Snell will look like Washburn.
My Dream scenario would be to have either of these two lineups
2B: Sanchez
SS: Hardy
3B: Lopez
or
2B:Wilson
SS:Hardy
3B:Sanchez
doubt this can happen, and Wilson probably isn’t an upgrade over Jose. Taking Wilson and Snell along with dealing Lopez to a 4th team may allow us to get away cheap with the prospects to Pitsburgh. I’d imagine it look something along the lines of
Mariners receive: JJ Hardy, Freddy Sanchez, Ian Snell, Jack Wilson. Brewers receive: Jarod Washburn, Erik Bedard. 4th team receives: Jose Lopez (plus a possible Mariner prospect). Pirates receive: (2 or 3 prospects from Mariners and 4th team).
Now that’s a lot of Rosterbation, and a 10+ 4 team trade doesn’t happen all that often, but I think a move like this would help the casuals accept the trade, as we bring in a huge improvement to the left side of the infield. everyone gets what they are looking for, The M’s may be hurting for some cash if this were to happen, but the improvement in offense and defense (which helps the pitching) could probably bring in more fans.
In realistic terms though, I Want Hardy/Snell for Wash/Bedard
Fortunately there aren’t any of those.
Heyoooooooooooooooooo! We’ll be here all night.
Hardy would be a gigantic upgrade over Cedeno. And Holliday is a free agent after this season.
Holliday will cost two good prospects. Not Clement or Wlad either. Good prospects. Outfield is probably the last thing this team needs now.
I’m thinking of this trade from the Brewers perspective. I’d probably say no.
Look at Cedeno’s numbers during the last sixteen games. If he stays at that level, which is at least possible, Hardy is just not that much of an upgrade considering his numbers decline from switching leagues and ball parks.
Morrow and Clement get you Holliday. But maybe David Dejesus would be the better player for the Mariners to trade for.
You just need to take a breath, realize how ridiculous the things that you’re saying are, and stop.
If we can get snell for VERY cheap I would be all for it, but if we have to give up one of our top prospects, then no thanks.
I don’t know much about the behind-the-scenes things, but it looks like we’re completely resigned to the fact that bedard would be gone after this year. Is there really no chance that we could resign him? He seems to enjoy seattle enough, if we offer a competitive contract I could see him staying
Look at Cedeno’s numbers during the last sixteen games.
He’s hitting .236/.263/.418 in his last 16 games.
I have the solution:
Ronny Cedeno for………..
Hanley Ramirez! problem solved
Yes, against some of the best pitching in the league. I honestly question whether Hardy could give you more.
Stop. Stop. Stop.
why stop? I’m thoroughly enjoying this..
You wonder whether Hardy, a career .264/.325/.435 hitter with great defense, can be better than .236/.263/.418 with an average glove? I’m just . . . I think I’m done for the night.
why did nobody like my solution?
Dave, I think this trade is a very solid idea.
If anything has been grossly overvalued it is the threat of negative fan reaction. Fears of pitchforks and torches are just plain silly. This is not Ichiro for Halladay. This is two guys who are obviously on their way out for a really good defensive shortstop who can stay awhile. Even the most casual fan knows we need a good shortstop.
Neither of these pitchers could save us from doom last year. Fans who are bitter about Bedard are going to be bitter whether he stays until September or not. Washburn is more often remembered by long suffering fans as a hated Halo, not some cuddly deer hunter. No sane fan is gonna sign a petition or cancel their season tickets.
Honestly, I like watching these guys when they are at the top of their games, but six months of brilliance did not unshakably endear an entire fan base to two on-again off-again pitchers. These guys have combined for eleven wins so far. I am still plenty skeptical every time either of them start.
Defense has made these two men viable again. A wise GM will spend these coins while they still have a little bit of shine. If reporters want to corner Jack after the deal is done, he has a great answer ready to go: “Gentlemen, this is a new day and we are going a new way.”
ok, ok. maybe we could throw washburn into my previous trade idea… maybe
When USSM performs a Deadspin-esque purge of its commentators we’ll look back at tonight as a pivotal moment.
But then again, the lucky survivors will get gold stars!
There are people actually arguing that Cedeno is Hardy’s equal? Did I stumble onto mlbtraderumor by mistake?
Cedeno was a worthwhile gamble, and he still may be a useful player, but an all-star he is not, and in all likely-hood will never be within spitting distance of being one.
Hardy is a gold-glove calibre shortstop who as recently as last year slugged like a corner outfielder. That is an all-star.
Too many people on here seem to think that every GM is going to make their trading decisions on your statistical analysis. Maybe Hardy for Bedard and Washburn is actually a fair trade, but it seems so extremely counterintuitive that two starting pitchers with ERAs below 3 are worth a good SS that there has to be some team out there willing to give up more for one of those two pitchers.
And I am dubious that replacing Bedard and Washburn with Morrow and Rowland-Smith is as good a swap as some people suggest.
Maybe it really is a fair trade, but I’ve got to think there’s another GM out there that Jack Z can swindle either trading for a SS or trading Bedard or Washburn.
Opportunity cost.
I predict cedeno hits 40 homers in the second half of the season.
Bye.
I doubt the Brewers even consider this deal. Not only do they give up the best player, but they’re also giving up the best compensation.
Hardy is projected as a type A free agent. Bedard is projected as a type B and Washburn isn’t projected for any compensation as of right now. So as of right now, the Brewers are giving up a year and a half of Hardy, plus two compensation pick for a half year of Bedard and Washburn and one compensation pick.
Not to mention, we would have the same problem that the Mariners currently have. Seven starting pitchers. Gallardo, Bush, Suppan, Looper, Washburn, Bedard and Parra. Parra could still go down to the minors and Looper could go to the bullpen with Villanueva going to the minors I guess, but I’m 100% positive that the Brewers wouldn’t trade Hardy for free agent(s) to be. It just doesn’t make any sense, especially when they’ll command no compensation.
I predict Dave’s head bangs the wall 40 times when he sees all these comments…
The question isn’t whether Morrow and Rowland-Smith are as good as Bedard and Washburn. They’re not, and no one is saying they’ll be even close.
The question is whether or not Hardy, Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith are more or less valuable to the Mariners then Cedeno, Bedard and Washburn.
I’m not sure I see the rational for this trade. We have a 15% chance of making the playoffs, and that is based a lot on continued performance from Washburn and Bedard so far this season. People are ragging about Bedards durability, but they are giving him credit for not giving any bad performances. I’d rather have a pitcher give me only 25 quality starts than 25 quality starts and 15 disasters.
If we make this trade then we’ll reduce our chances significantly of making the playoffs. That’s fine if we get long term value back, but one more year of JJ Hardy is not long term value. If Hardy were the only piece we need to put us in contention for next season that would be something different, but we still have holes to fill at 1b, 2b, 3b, lf and C, as well as hoping that our starting pitching matures, and somehow gets better.
Assuming this was possible, you need someone to pick up those other 15 starts. Now you have a different problem.
If you’d rather your pitcher gives you 25 quality starts over 40 total starts, then, I have to thanks the stars above you’re not running the mariners.
Instead of looking at the 15% chance at making the playoffs, instead look at the EIGHTY FIVE percent chance that we miss the playoffs. I’m a gambling man, but the team is in such dire straits with a farm system ravaged from years of bad deals that we can’t afford to let Bedard and Washburn walk with only one type-B free agent pick.
We don’t have holes to fill at 1B or LF. Beltre could likely be re-signed for decent money, negating the need at third. SS is our most pressing need, and getting a young, premium defensive SS under team control for a year and a half for 2 starters sounds like a great deal to me. Remember, it wasn’t all that long ago we were ready to let Washburn walk for nothing more than the yanks picking up his contract. Bedard continues to be an injury risk. Neither guy figures in to the long term plans in Seattle, nor should they. They are going to be too pricy and too unreliable to give big money to, and no, they won’t be accepting any sort of hometown discount, either.
Kazinski, how much more can we reduce our playoff chances from 85% not making it? Let’s say the numbers play out and it costs us a win. That moves us to what, 86, 87% chance of not making it? I think that’s a risk we should all be willing to take.
Oh, by the way, its hilarious to see the number of people climbing on the M’s bandwagon discussing the team. Where were you people last year when this team stunk?
Then again, some people probably thought the same thing of Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales when the Rockies called them up in ‘07 — yet they got all the way to the World Series that year.
Totally agree with your counterpoint there, Teej…but for everyone who’s still hung up on ERA as some kind of determinant factor, I’ll just add that Felix’s was actually fairly well below 4 last year in spite of an often lackluster (to put it nicely) defense at several positions.
I’m still not sold on the idea of trading for this guy (i’d rather go younger) but if we are going to go for him, part of the trade better be Hardy’s signature on a long term deal, because trading those two pitchers for only a year and a half of the guy isn’t worth it by a long shot. If we get the dotted line then great, but otherwise I say no deal. What do you think DMZ?
AgentJ-why would we have to get a long term extension out of him? Washburn and Bedard’s contract expire this year, we’re getting a year+ of Hardy guaranteed, something we’re not getting in the contracts we’re sending away. Why would a contract extension have to be there?
How much are we really improving our farm system if we make a deal for Hardy for one extra year? If the club is in as dire straits as you believe, then doesn’t that mean it’s going to be almost as hard to compete next year, too? Mind you, next year we are unlikely to have pitchers performing as well as Bedard and Washburn have so far this season (whether they’ve overperformed or not, they’ve performed very well).
What are the playoff odds for next season? Or are you counting on Hardy rebounding and being a Type-A free agent?
Because we are really only getting a half a year out of the deal, giving up half a year from two players for one guy with a year and a half. That [doesn't] help this team much. Once [that's] up if we [don't] manage to [re-sign] the guy then we are back where we started and that value is still lost, just a year later.
Soooo trades should be evaluated based on the amount of time that each team gets from players received?
just a fan-We don’t have anyone in the pipe who can help us at shortstop. We have the chance to turn 2 players who won’t be with the team into a player who will give the team a year+ without having SS be a glaring hole in the lineup.
For those of you suggesting we re-sign Washburn and/or Bedard, it’s obvious you just started following the Mariners, or have no idea about how to judge talent. Washburn was an absolute bum for the past several years, but you want to reward him with a long term deal for 3 months of pitching well. That’s pure lunacy. Bedard has been injured, and there’s nothing to prove he’s going to be a reliable starter going forward. For us to parlay two very risky players who we only have under contract for a few more months into a premium defending SS who will be under contract for all of next year is a great move. It gives the team more time to either determine Hardy as a long term SS solution or bring in more players to fill that role.
I bring up the lack of depth in the minors because the cupboard is empty, and the team needs time to re-fill it. There’s nothing to say that RRS/Morrow/Olsen/Vargas can’t be effective starters.
Hardy will likely be Type A at the end of 2010. If the M’s get him the team will either get him for awhile longer or him for a little bit and really good draft picks.
Not exactly, but I’d rather get long term benefits from these two, as over or undervalued as they may be, than what would essentially be a rental player which would yield less benefit than a B arbitration pick. Look at how much good having Texiera for a year did for the Angels or Braves. If we are going to deal the present for the future, lets not do it half-assed
What long-term benefits are you claiming we’d get from either Washburn or Bedard? What in their recent history would suggest they’re going to continue to pitch in the way they’ve pitched this year? Also, how can you call a guy who will be around for a full year plus some be a ‘rental’ player? I’d much rather offer Hardy a long term deal than either Bedard or Washburn, but that decision wouldn’t have to be made for over a year!
AgentJ, its already been mentioned that Hardy is projecting as a type A free agent. So, worst case scenario is we trade Washburn and his terrible past and good three months and DL prone Bedard for Hardy, who walks at the end of 2010 as a type A free agent. We get draft picks similar to what we got with Ibanez walking, helping to restock the barren minor league cupboard.
Why is this bad again?
Tex was an incredible acquisition for the Angels.
Axtell – But if Hardy isn’t worth re-signing, how in the heck is he going to be a type A free agent? I’m kinda unclear how they figure this stuff out, I just know it’s archaic (which makes me think it’s along the lines of BA + Field% + RBI – Strikeouts).
But if when the time comes to make a decision and Z decides not to bring him back because this year wasn’t as big a fluke as everybody thinks it is, then he’s not going to be a type A free agent, right? At least, that’s what makes sense to me.
I’m just saying it’d be better if we locked him up from the beginning if this is a guy that we really want. He may be projecting as a type A free agent, but if he doesnt quite make the cutoff then we are in the same position as letting the pitchers go. We have no idea right now whether or not he would even want to stay with the Mariners (Think Bedard), so knowing how receptive he is to a long term deal could be important in more ways than one. I call him a rental the same way I call Texieras stint with the Angels a rental.
He played a year for them and they got nothing for him. What good did it do?
If Hardy is a type A free agent, and his asking price is too high, then he will be both (a) not worth bringing back and (b) a type A free agent. See how that works?
AgentJ, no, we wouldn’t be in the same position as if we just let both pitchers go. Bedard won’t even be a type B free agent, Washburn is projecting to a B, and there’s a vast difference between A and B. I don’t see how you call a guy with over a year to go on his contract a rental…it just doesn’t apply in this situation.
Again, Hardy is “projected” as a type A free agent. What happens if he doesnt make the cutoff? Then we get a B pick, which would be one less pick then we would get for the pitchers. You hope that Hardy plays to his potential (if we really plan to have him for one year) but if he doesnt then there is a ton of lost value there. I dont see how it isn’t okay to let these guys go in free agency, but we dont have to think twice about Harvy
Why would it be one less pick than we’d get for the pitchers? Bedard is not going to be a type B. If he walks we will get nothing for him. Nothing. Washburn is based solely on this year. So if we trade them for Hardy and, as you theorize, both Wash and Hardy give us type B compensation, we’ve still won because we’ve trade a position of depth (starting pitching) for a position of need (SS).
It was only about a month ago that we were discussing how Bedard would barely miss being an A, so what has changed so much that [can't] be fixed by a month or two of unimpeded pitching? And even if he somehow [isn't] a B, we get a player (admittedly in a late round) who will be around longer than a year. Hardy would be nice to have, but I compare it to Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro, Carl Everett, or one of the many other players we’ve signed for a year. Some of them have worked out, but they didn’t benefit us much in the long run because we [didn't] get any value for them when they left. It isn’t worth giving these guys up for a one year player when we can have guys that could benefit the franchise for years.
Well, they won yet another vaunted division title and earned the right to have their rear ends handed to them by the Red Sox for the second year in a row…so, I guess that’s pretty awesome.
You are not correctly remembering that discussion.
No, the only person who said he’d barely miss being a type A was Baker…the editors here correctly disputed that finding and accurately said he wouldn’t be either.
And a month or two of unimpeded pitching? Even if he were on track for type A, his inability to get and stay on the mound would surely derail that plan.
Your error in comparing Hardy to Guillen, Vidro, et al would be that those guys were TERRIBLE players, Hardy is an average bat and elite level defensively. While the tenure could be the same, the caliber of player is not.
And again, you mention the benefit of the franchise for years. Who? Washburn? Bedard? What in the world would give you the idea that they would be able to benefit the M’s for ‘years’? Washburn has been hideous since he put on a Mariners uniform until this year. Bedard has been good, but far too injury prone. Neither would project to helping this team for ‘years’.
Why do you insist on pushing the agenda that these two guys would somehow lead the team for ‘years’? There is no factual evidence to back it up!
I’m glad Scott19 gets it
Please use apostrophes correctly, if only as a courtesy to others.
Baker argued that Bedard would be a Type A, actually, with increasing vehemence and condescension for people who were right.
AgentJ, here’s the article your incorrectly remembering, it’s from baker’s blog
here is the link to the USS discussion on the same topic:
This was back at the beginning of June. Since June 9th (when that discussion happened) Bedard has had exactly 2 starts totaling 9.2 innings.
No, he’s not going to be a type A, and at this rate, will be lucky to hit the type B pool.
All i’m saying is that if Z could get Gutierrez, Vargas, and Aardsma during the offseason for Putz and a few throwins, He should get a lot more for two playoff caliber pitchers from teams who think they are in the playoff hunt. It’d be a waste of value to give them up for a “potential” A pick and the services of a SS for a year. Also worth repeating is the earlier post from another user pointing out some stats that have been declining over the years for Hardy.
That’s it, I’m tired of making typographical corrections to your comments.
Fixed the links. Seriously, there’s a button right there to do it for you.
But Hardy isn’t a ‘potential’ type of guy. If you would have bothered to read any of the analysis of Hardy, you’d see a plus defender and, at worst, league average bat (which would be an immediate upswing over who we have now).
Washburn is a ‘playoff caliber’ pitcher? Since when? Since he has had a playoff caliber outfield behind him you mean?
I like how you’ve conveniently forgotten the whole type A/B comment once you’ve been shown to have been wrong.
Sorry about that DMZ, I had both pages up to post the links (wanted to make sure I could find them first) and simply forgot to use the link tabs.
THE ANGELS GOT TWO FIRST ROUND PICKS AND MARK TEIXEIRA FOR CASEY KOTCHMAN AND A PITCHER.
I’m fascinated by the idea that the Mariners would be dealing away the present, as you say, for the future. Dave’s analysis, which I trust, as he’s way better at this than you are or I am, puts the net loss for us at roughly half a win. Fine. That’s if Washburn doesn’t suddenly decide to free Willy and people start turning his Dolphin pitch into tuna (horrible mixed metaphor, but that’s water over the bridge now), and it’s also assuming that Bedard’s arm doesn’t fall off, which you must admit is a likely possibility. The deal is quite even when you consider the risks involved with Washburn – he turns into a pumpkin again – and Bedard – he shatters into tiny pieces and the groundskeepers have to sweep him off the field and the training staff has to try to piece him back together with CrazyGlue.
Meanwhile, what happens if Washburn pitches well and Bedard does his thing and they both perform according to their FIPs and Jose Lopez goes down? Suddenly you’re left with a middle infield combination of Woodward and Cedeno. That’s not something you want to see on the lineup card. After that, who’s the backup infielder? Chris Woodward was the absolute last resort guy going into the season, and he’s already gotten a few starts at third and is one injury away from more somewhere in the infield.
Meanwhile, if Bedard gets hurt again, we’ve got players who can cover. Hyphen is in AAA, Vargas and Olson are available, and Morrow is going to be coming back up after the All-Star break, I think. SP is a position of depth, and we can absorb the loss of the two lefties. Middle infield is not, and Hardy is the best we’re going to get, for the price we’re willing to pay. If there’s a better option out there, I’d love to hear about it, but I think the two lefties for Hardy is the most realistic major move we can make.
Age really doesn’t matter for this discussion because Wilson is only under contract through 2010-if the Ms didn’t buy him out. In other words the Ms would have an exit strategy if they wished. Aslo, are you suggesting it’s reasonable to expect Wilson to fall off of a defensive cliff next season?
BTW, wat metrics are you basing your “career year” argument upon?
Really, your arguments against Wilson just aren’t compelling.
Wilson is 31 years old to Hardy’s 26, and has a lifetime OPS of under .700. Not only is there not much of an argument for acquiring Wilson as opposed to acquiring Hardy, there’s not much of an argument for acquiring Wilson, period.
Hardy, OTOH, has two 20+ HR seasons under his belt and is just coming into his peak power years. If Milwaukee didn’t have Alcides Escobar breathing down Hardy’s neck, Hardy would be untouchable — at least for anything the M’s would offer — and we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.
Getting Hardy for Bedard and Washburn would be an absolute coup for the Mariners, and if Milwaukee wants Clement or Halman thrown in, I’m for it.
Right now the 7, 8, and 9 spots in the batting order are a dead loss. Johnson hits his yearly homer and all the gomers start waving their arms in the air, but Johnson is killing them at the plate and so is Cedeño. Hardy gives them an instant, significant upgrade.
If there’s any chance Seattle could pull this one off, they should run, not walk, to do it. The increase in offense and defense that he provides would make Garrett Olson, Jason Vargas, and Ryan Rowland-Smith a whole lot better.
It’s easy to proclaim there is no argument when one can’t be bothered with entertaining one…
Exactly what argument would you like me to entertain that we haven’t heard? Wilson isn’t as good a player as Hardy is, period. Hardy has a plus power bat for a SS. He’s five years younger than Wilson is, and still has a upside in physical development. Wilson, at 31, does not have much of an upside.
Short-term, Hardy has more value than Wilson does. Long-term, Hardy has more value than Wilson does. Hardy has some history as a hitter. Wilson considerably less so.
What exactly is the case for Wilson? That he might cost less? Maybe he might, but Seattle would be getting less.
I beg to differ.
Wilson+Bedard+Washburn > Hardy in ‘09.
Wilson+ flipped Bedard & Washburn > Hardy in ‘10
Hardy can be signed as a free agent after next season.
Wow, quite a discussion here.
Initially, I had the same reaction as a lot of people – this seems like a lot to give up for Hardy, even if the argument for the trade is sound. On a purely qualitative level, Bedard and Washburn together for hardy seems steep. But as I’ve thought about it, I’ve realized two things:
1. I’m overvaluing Bedard and Washburn in my head. Yes, they have some value, but not nearly as much as I think, or want to think.
2. I’m shorting Hardy a bit. Not because of his talent, either, but only getting one more year of club control. That’s a lot, but it seems like this deal would have been more palatable to me initially if we got, say, 2011 as well. But then he’d be even more valuable, wouldn’t he?
I like the idea of this trade. Yes, Baker would probably have his head explode, let alone the Steve Kellys of the world, but I don’t care. I hated, hated, hated the Bedard trade and applauded the Putz deal. This is the latter, not the former.
The one real problem I can find with this scenario is bringing Morrow right back up. I wonder if that’s really the best idea, even if we’d need him to remain competitive this year. Will he be a better player long-term getting some time in Tacoma to work on his secondary stuff?
Sorry, Terry, we’ll have to agree to disagree. IMO you value Wilson, Bedard, and Washburn all a lot more highly than I do.
The major thing missing from this entire discussion is how Halladay might set the market. It’s possible you can then make it either Bedard or Washburn, plus a prospect, to get Hardy. Likely Washburn + prospect = Hardy, if Halladay sets the market at something fairly steep.
The minor thing missing is how to present the trade to the players – specifically, how to get the remaining veterans like Griffey, Sweeney, Ichiro to buy in – such that this doesn’t look like a white flag. USSM knows it isn’t a white flag. Average sabr-oriented fan presented with USSM argument might see it’s not a white flag. Average Mariner and average fan might not see how it works at all. I know intangibles aren’t popular, interesting or provable here, but USSM’s view on the world is the minority of baseball fandom.
Lastly, Morrow is back down in AAA, and RRS held in AAA, for a reason. Slotting them into Bedard and Washburn’s spots in the rotation is giving up on 2009. If you’re fine with that, fine – it’s part of building to 2010 an 2011. If the Bedard+Washburn = Hardy trade is a “win now, and win later” philosophy, it makes no sense at all.
All of that taken together has me believe that Jack is smarter than this, and will be able to do a better deal than this. The best possible deal to be made in midseason is, in my opinion, likely the one we haven’t thought of yet.
I don’t think that’s the question at all. Bedard and Washburn likely won’t be Mariners next year.
This has been a fascinating discussion, but I think the heart of the matter is in Dave’s post: The Mariners simply win more games over the next 1.5 years by making this deal. Any other way of looking at it isn’t the most logical.
If you would like to argue Bedard and Washburn might fetch more value elsewhere, that’s fine, but given the team’s specific needs I doubt it would be easy to find a match.
I like the trade, and it [it is] within [the] [realm] of possibility. The fact [that] JZ and Melvin have a history is a huge help, based on stuff [I've] read here and elsewhere in the past; GM’s deal far more readily with the peers and teams they know and are comfortable with.
One problem I see is that it is really tough for a team to give up their starting SS (OK, YB excepted) when they are in the thick of a race. This prospect may look great, but throwing him into a pressure situation might make he and Melvin both lose their composure.
If there is any deal between these teams, I’d be surprised if there weren’t some minor league prospects included.
Slotting them into Bedard and Washburn’s spots in the rotation is giving up on 2009.
Why on earth do you guys keep believing this? We just replaced Adrian Beltre with Chris Woodward/Jack Hannahan, but apparently that didn’t sink the season.
+ huge upgrade at SS – small downgrade at SP – small downgrade at SP != season over.
Get over the ridiculous notion you guys have about how important Bedard and Washburn are.
I’m writing from the Brewers perspective. This is an interesting idea, and I understand the argument for why this deal would make sense for them. And maybe it’s a deal they should make. Ultimately, however, I don’t see the Brewers pulling the trigger. This would be a short-term play, and I think there are too many risks inherent in the deal for it to make sense for the Brewers to trade an asset like Hardy.
Though the Brewers have Escobar waiting and available, they aren’t compelled to make room for him right now and, contrary to some comments above, weren’t and aren’t looking to actively move Hardy. Because of this, if Melvin is moving Hardy, he’s either looking for 1) impact players that can get the Brewers into the playoffs this year, or 2) a player or package of players that have long-term value. If an impact deal doesn’t emerge, the Brewers will wait and either move Hardy this off-season or keep him through 2010, either at short or third, and collect draft picks.
For the Brewers, the only long-term gain from the proposed trade is one or two potential draft picks. Bedard looks like a B (question: how would his move to the NL would impact his rankings?) with an arb offer no lock given his health. Washburn looks like a B but I think an arb offer is unlikely.
So the Brewers would need to decide that Washburn and Bedard push them over the top this year, and I’m not sold on that. If he pulled the trigger, Melvin would essentially be betting that (1) Bedard will stay healthy and be a difference maker, (2) Washburn will significantly outperform internal options, and (3) the difference in those performances will be impactfully greater than the drop-off from Hardy to Escobar. There are a lot of ifs there.
Bedard is a high-risk, high-upside play. Washburn, to me, just isn’t that enticing as an upgrade for the price. Burns and Suppan are the swap-outs in Dave’s analysis, but the Brewers also have Dave Bush coming off of the DL and Manny Parra in play, and Washburn isn’t an obvious upgrade over either of them in my mind. Finally, making the trade would require Melvin taking the risk that Escobar will be able to handle MLB-level pitching adequately out of the gate. If he can’t, the Brewers suddenly have a 7-8-9 swing in the lineup with horrendous output, and they aren’t much better off in terms of fighting to get in the playoffs this year.
Speaking more generally, you really don’t see these types of trades mid-season, where major league parts move between competitive teams. Maybe you should see more of it. But the vast, vast majority of mid-season trades involve prospects or long-term assets on one end and major league parts on the other. It’s a lot more likely that the Brewers make a smaller move for some pitching, and look at moving Hardy during the offseason for parts that are under team control for longer than a half-season.
Safeco was built for Griffey, a left-handed power hitter. Bedard and Wash seem to be particularly tough on lefties. Nullify an opposing teams’ left-handed hitters at Safeco and you make it awfully tough on them. Woodward/Hannahan couldn’t have the same effect as the pitchers in this scenario. No?
By the way Dave, after reading some of the ideas being tossed around, I humbly apologize for my rant earlier. I understand.
Dave – You’re minimizing how important the Mariner players and the average fans think Bedard and Washburn are. Just because you personally don’t have that opinion, and have the numbers behind it to show your work, doesn’t mean they’re not important to others.
Also, again: we haven’t seen how Halladay will set the market for starting pitching. You might be able to get more for Bedard and Washburn, and/or be able to get Hardy for just one of them plus a more minor player.
The team just needs two pitchers that will keep the ball down, limit free passes and let the other team put the ball in play. It’s been working all season.
The Mariners have found ways to win games even when given slightly sub-par pitching. Heck, they managed to break .500 when Silva took the hill.
Vargas: 6-5
Bedard: 7-6
Olson: 4-4
Silva: 3-3
Washburn:8-9
Jakubauskas: 3-5
Morrow: 1-5
Something tells me even with RRS and Morrow, the defense will help keep turning somewhat average starts into wins. If the bats do their part, (and perhaps get Beltre back) going another 3-4 games above .500 the rest of the way isn’t out of the question. Probably not enough to win the division, but I think the point is keeping Washburn and Bedard isn’t going to win it anyway.
Why not improve for 2010 instead?
Or….you might not. One of the things Dave is discussing is how far you’re ultimately willing to go.
OF COURSE you do the deal if it takes less than Bedard and Washburn. But what if it doesn’t? Does it work out for you if do deal the two? Dave is pessimistic that the Brewers will do it for less, and is also pessimistic that the two will fetch that much on the trade market.
It is not at all obvious that he’s wrong. And people should not be arguing that he’s obviously wrong.
Warm fuzzies aren’t the kind of “importance” that Dave is talking about. He’s talking about important to winning baseball games, and in that sense, Bedard and Washburn aren’t as “important” as many of you are claiming them to be.
Man, what a thread.
I absolutely love this idea. And I agree, as someone has said, it’s counterintuitive.
So here’s a suggestion on how to look at it. The Brewers, at best, get 30 starts from Bedard/Washburn for the rest of the season. So, for the sake of argument, consider that one full season of a single pitcher. And if that pitcher is a hybrid of the two–saying Bedard is a 2 and Washburn a 4–that gives you one full season of a #3. Even among the best teams in the American league, that nets out to a Sanders, Pettitte, Garza or Danks. That’s the value we’re forfeiting.
In return, we receive something that is priceless (at least to the M’s)–a viable major league shortstop for at least a year and a half. And calling Hardy ‘viable’ is an insult. I think there’s a good case he’s among the best half-dozen shortstops in baseball.
Z has said that his job every day is to make the Mariners better. And there is no doubt that this deal does that–to me, overwhelmingly.
Finally, as far as I can tell, if this is what we decide, there is nothing preventing us from pursuing Bedard over the winter even if he finishes the season in someone else’s uniform. And if I’m Bedard, I’m a lot more likely to want to be pitching next year for a team with Hardy behind me at short and in the middle of the order than Cedeno.
While true for Washburn (significantly so), the reverse is true for Bedard, who posts a higher OPS against and BABIP when facing left-handed batters.
Chris, what possible relevance could Halladay being traded have on this deal? None, that’s what. Simply because you insist on it being important doesn’t make it so.
They’re not minimizing how important the M’s players are, they’re being realistic with their worth. Why people continue to insist that Washburn and Bedard are these remarkable pitchers that are worth so much on the open market is unbelievable! Washburn is just a few months away from being nothing more than a salary dump. Bedard continues to visit the DL regularly. Neither of these guys are legit high value assets, especially given the likelihood of them leaving whatever team they’re traded to at the end of the year.
Again, the Halladay deal will have no bearing on what Washburn and Bedard bring, as they are completely different pitchers. Halladay is going to be traded only if the Jays can bring in a haul of players, we’re talking a number of valuable minor leaguers. Neither Wash or Bedard are worth that.
Points well taken. The real issue from the Brewers’ side is their comfort level handing the job to Escobar in the middle of a pennant race. Their best incentive is Hardy’s subpar year at the plate so far (and with BABIP, OPS and K% all trending at career worsts, maybe due for a positive adjustment?)
Wow. That surprises me. With the wicked hook in his curveball, I would have thought that the other way around. Perhaps Erik should try to develop a ‘dolphin’ pitch.
I’d LOVE to see JJ Hardy in Seattle. I just hope Jack Z can get him for less. We’ll see.
I don’t see how the Brewers wouldn’t pull the trigger on Dave’s proposal.
They have a replacement for Hardy.
Run prevention is their biggest weakness but the defensive part of the equation is rock solid based upon UZR and DER. It’s their starting pitching that is the bleeding ulcer.
The money going both ways would actually be pretty similar.
So really, the Brewers would jump on it, I’d think.
As I’ve alluded to a couple of times though, the issue in my mind is whether or not the Ms could come out ahead by upgrading shortstop via other routes that wouldn’t require trading Bedard/Washburn as part of the deal netting the shortstop.
Wolf – There’s actually not a huge difference in Bedard’s LH/RH splits overall — he’s been pretty damn effective against batters on both sides of the plate.
I find this to be a very interesting comment thread with a lot of good arguments about a complicated set of options, which is a credit to Dave and his post. Thanks for all who have made thoughtful contributions.
I just want to add a response to the following comment:
I think this is a rather large underestimate of the value the Mariner’s would be giving up in Dave’s proposal. You are basically saying:
A + B for 1/2 of the Brewers’ season = a full season of (A+B)/2.
I think that is wrong because, for a team like the Brewers that is on the border of making the playoffs, at this stage, adding a this year expected win (TYEWin) is significantly more valuable than adding an average expected win.
The reason teams often wait until the trade deadline to make deals is because, as the season progresses, they gain significant knowledge about the value of adding TYEWins to their roster. For example, a TYEWin for the Brewers right now is much more valuable than a TYEWin for the Nationals. It is this difference in the relative value of a TYEWin that sparks so many trades at the trade deadline. It creates opportunities for trades that benefit both teams by sending TYEWins from teams that value them less to teams that value them more. This is in fact, the whole reason to have a trade deadline, because in the middle of September, the knowledge of the current standings creates even larger disparities in the value of TYEWins.
So for the Brewers, adding two quality pieces at a time when TYEWins are more valuable to them is better than adding a full season of one player that might average out to the same amount of expected wins added.
I think this should effectively refute the “suggestion of how to look at” the value the Mariners would be giving up above. Not to say that the deal still would be a good one for the Mariners, but let’s not sell short the value of good players in the second half of a season when a team is in contention. It might just be half a season, but it is the more important half for the team that we would be dealing with.
Given the arms that Bedard/Washburn would replace in Milwaukee and assuming Alcides Escobar was a rough equivalent to Hardy, the Brewers might be adding 2.5 to 3 wins by trading for 220 innings of Bedard/Washburn.
That’s mind blowingly huge for their playoff chances.
Coming all the way from milwaukee- I would love this deal, take it in a heartbeat. I think that would really be a steal. I think EB + Monies would be enough, maybe an add on from either side. JJ is an extremely streaky player; when he gets hot, he can get very hot, but when he goes into droughts, its equally as bad. This season he has yet to really have a hot streak, and since its already the half way point we have some people around town calling for him to be benched. In fact, the more repeated reason as to why we wouldn’t trade Hardy would be because he would be at his lowest value due to the bad first half. So you bet I’d take it. But I’m pretty sure Jack Z knows our farm better than GM, so he knows whats goin on.
You’re assuming we get 220 innnings from Bedard and Washburn. You’re assuming that Escobar can roughly replicate what Hardy is giving. And you’re assuming that the front office decides the couple of wins they might get are worth cashing in Hardy for a purely short-term play. I’m pointing out that there is enough risk in those assumptions that the Brewers will decide to hold onto Hardy rather than decide to push their chips in with Washburn and Bedard.
I’m not arguing that the return value isn’t fair, or that their isn’t need for pitching in Milwaukee. I’m arguing that, philosophically, I don’t see the Brewers’ F.O. moving Hardy for a package that doesn’t offer a more certain short-term advantage or any long-term assets in return.
by trading for 220 innings of Bedard/Washburn.
There is no way, no how that those two combine for 220 innings the rest of the year. The Brewers have 74 games left. If we assume that Bedard and Washburn started 40% of those, that’s 29.6 starts.
To get 220 innings, they’d have to average 7.4 innings per start, if the M’s and Brewers made this trade today, and neither of them missed a start the rest of the year.
It’s understandable why your view on this is so off if you’ve been artificially adding ~70 innings to their output for the rest of the season.
For 2009:
Bedard – FIP 3.44, ZIPS 3.24
Washburn – FIP 3.88, ZIPS 3.97
Rowland-Smith – FIP 6.07; FiP in AAA 3.61; ZiPS 4.69
Morrow – FIP 5.67, ZiPS 4.89
This is a “small downgrade” at SP?
Consistent with my post above, I would argue that it is better to look at a deal like this in terms of change to postseason odds rather than change in record.
Just to illustrate the point, let’s compare Deal 1 sending Weshburn + Bedard to the Brewers now for say +2 wins in 2010, with Deal 2, which is the same deal, but it takes place in a month (assume all players clear waivers).
If we only look at the number of innings that Washburn + Bedard are likely to pitch, then Deal 1 is obviously superior. In Deal 1, the Brewers are trading for more innings of Washburn + Bedard.
If we look at the impact on playoff odds, however, it is not clear which deal is better. It is possible that in a month the Brewers will be completely out of the playoff picture, in which case they will certainly not want to do Deal 2. It is also possible that in one month, the Brewers will know that they are tied for the wildcard, in which case it is very likely that Deal 2 will be more attractive at the time than Deal 1 is right now. Obviously the Brewers would be trading for less innings, but the increase to their playoff odds will be higher with the knowledge that improved play is more likely to put them just over the top in the wild card. One win swings at that time will have enormous effects on playoff odds.
Now, there are certainly other in-season outputs a team might consider other than the affect those decisions will have on their playoff odds. Winning games for the sake of winning games, even outside of the affect on playoff odds has some value, which has been supported on this site before.
That said, I think improved playoff odds is the clear most important consideration for a team that is trying to add talent to its roster now, and I think trades should therefore be analyzed with that in mind, rather than in terms of gross number of innings or starts remaining.
I realize I am not directly refuting anyone’s statement here, I just thought this (albeit long winded) entry might add to the discussion.
This is a “small downgrade†at SP?
If only I had done the math for you in the post above…
Axtell, every season, multiple teams will be in the running for the premier player in that season’s midseason trade deadline talks. One of the teams that doesn’t get that premier player, will often “settle” for someone else, because they need to upgrade at the position badly enough.
It doesn’t matter that Halladay is not the same style of pitcher as Bedard or Washburn. If a team misses on Halladay, and thinks it needs an upgrade in starting pitching, they might see Bedard or Washburn as a plan B, and end up offering more than either Bedard or Washburn might ultimately be worth.
You’re presuming I’m pulling this out of thin air. If you have some information somewhere that says midseason trade markets don’t function like this, or information that points to this season’s July trade deadline being different than past years somehow, please do point me to it.
It’s not unreasonable or unrealistic to try to time the market to get a better deal if one comes along.
All that said, yes, I agree Bedard and Washburn aren’t top-tier pitchers and on their own merits aren’t worth Halladay-like hauls (or anything that can really be called a haul) by any stretch.
Maybe 2 SPs for JJ Hardy really is the best market value one can get. I’d like to think Jack is savvy enough to get a better deal than this.
Dave, an 8-run difference and a 10-run difference is a big difference on a team with a significantly below-average offense.
The 10 run difference is a disaster scenario. It’d be like if I suggested that Hardy was a 20 run upgrade because Cedeno might keep hitting what he’s hitting right now. It’s not likely.
And, you do realize that the offense would gain JJ Hardy, right?
Again, net contribution – minor downgrade this year (most of which is easily replaced by a guy like Ian Snell, if you don’t trust RRS/Morrow) and big upgrade next year.
Inspired by this note, I was chatting about this idea on IM, and the most salient point here is that Hardy is a career .258/.311/.407 hitter against RHP, and would be coming to the harder league with a tougher home park for his style.
Considering the M’s have hit .261/.313/.396 against RHP this year, I think offense vs RHP is far and away the most crucial thing. If they don’t think Clement can both hit and catch, maybe Pittsburgh would consider a deal centered around he and Doumit, as Clement seems like the sort of player Huntington likes.
And to really up the risk/reward ante, how about a big-time push (probably involving trading pieces to multiple teams) for Alex Gordon? Obviously, Beltre would have to be one piece included.
As far as shortstop, Cedeno probably deserves at least a few more AB before punting. And Oswaldo Navarro has a tremendous defensive reputation, I’d just play him if Cedeno fails – unless there’s some really good reason to believe he isn’t all that good defensively anymore.
I see, but I’m being a pessimist and taking the disaster scenario because Morrow and especially RRS haven’t given reasons for optimism.
As far as the offense gaining JJ Hardy, I think that’s where I’ll agree to disagree with you here. I see your position, and it’s consistent with your philosophy about how to build a ballclub, but this offense needs more than adding 1 guy with league-average offense, to shore up its offensive problems overall. Its offense is too far off to just figure it in WAR or similar alone.
Great pitching + great defense as formula for success assume league-average offense, and they won’t have that even when adding Hardy and subtracting Cedeno.
Add in a stellar defensive catcher with a league-average offense, and a stellar 3b with league-average offense, and an everyday DH who can actually, well, H … and no drop-off from everyone else… then Hardy alone is fine.
Actually I meant to type 170 innings….
Here’s the homework…
Bedard is projected to post a FIP of 3.19 the rest of the way. Washburn is projected to post a FIP of 4.2 the rest of the way.
The candidates to be replaced in the Brewers rotation are (Suppan is “proven” guy so while his FIP is the most obvious to replace, I’m trying to error on being conservative by no suggesting he’d move to the pen):
Bush 4.61
Parra 4.21
Looper 4.75
So Bedard is a 1.4run /9 IP upgrade over the “tired arm” Bush. Washburn is a .5 run /9 IP upgrade over Looper.
Given the FIP differences, 85 innings of Bedard might be worth 13 runs and 85 innings of Washburn might be worth 5 runs.
That’s a 2 win upgrade and it’s assuming Bush’s tired arm wouldn’t fall off a cliff and the FIP being replaced from arms like Looper/Parra/Burns/McClung is actually significantly below 5.
Do you think Beltre’s coming back from the DL that soon?
Intangibles alert! Prepare your collective cringe reflex!
Haven’t seen it mentioned yet, so I thought I’d be that guy…Washburn has been lauded for his “leadership” in the clubhouse this year, and many writers in the Seattle media have noted Bedard’s improved attitude this season…does it really matter so little as to how this proposed trade would go over with their former teammates?
I know they’re supposed to be “professionals” and at the end of the day they have to keep playing with the talent at hand, but, just IMO, I don’t believe the impact would be as minimal as people here seem to be implying by not bringing it up at all. After all, Mike Sweeney was kept around long past his expiration date…and then there is Griffey (who, to be fair, has that whole “icon riding off into the sunset” thing going for him).
I get the sense that the players understood Betancourt’s departure…Washburn/Bedard probably doesn’t receive a similiar reaction and, IMO, that will affect the mindsets of some players when they hit the field.
Yes, I’m fully aware that we can’t measure intangibles. But Zduriencik doesn’t have the luxury of ignoring them entirely…
He does, as it turns out.
I think this deal is a little too cute for itself and is a perfect example of why only kind of going for it this year and kind of building for the future is a bad idea.
First, suffering a minor downgrade overall while also trading away the Mariners two best short-term assets is waving the white flag. The Mariners need to get better than they are right now to legitimately contend this season, so taking any step backwards while simultaneously reducing your trade options does not make any sense if the Mariners are hoping to stay in the race.
Also, the comment earlier about the M’s SP depth taking a massive hit (the M’s are worried about Vargas’s pitch count, Morrow has several issues, RRS hasn’t done anything in the majors this year and is coming off of an injury) is a salient one. Maybe the M’s are marginally better with a rotation of Felix, Snell, Olson, RRS, Vargas and Hardy at SS, but not so much better that we can expect them to catch the Rangers and the Angels. Yet, in making these moves, the M’s would be in a much more precarious situation if one of the starters goes down.
If the Mariners are looking to build for the future, this move does not make a whole lot of sense, either. Hardy is only under contract for one more season. What about 2011? If I am throwing in the towel on 2009, then I better get back some assets that are going to help me when my young players like Ackley, Carp, Clement, Death to Flying Things, etc. are hitting their prime. If I am calling Melvin and gauging his interest in Bedard and Washburn, I am asking about Escobar first. Put another way, what NL team is better than Milwaukee if Bedard and Washburn replace Mike Burns and Suppan/Parra/Looper, other than LA? If the Brewers don’t want to do the deal, which they probably wouldn’t, I move on and look for teams that are willing to give up prospects, not short-term fixes like Hardy.
The more I think about this deal, the more I seem to like it. Giving up roughly 29 starts from the 2 SPs for roughly 800-850 ABs from Hardy and his outstanding defense would be a great trade, especially if we could get him a contract extension.
Not sure the Brewers would make that trade, but you never know. My only concern right now is that there have been rumors of Hardy’s shoulder being a problem that could put him on the DL shortly, and the last thing we’d want to do is trade 2 consistent pitchers away and get a player that spends the next few months on the DL. Other than that though, I rather like the idea.
Thanks, tkight. Maybe the way to go is trade Washburn and extend Bedard, if possible. I feel the team has a chance to win every time Bedard is out there. At least I felt that way both games he’s pitched so far this year!
Kidding aside, that’s the scary thing with Bedard, isn’t it? One never knows how many innings he will or won’t pitch in a year. His health is one huge crapshoot. Thinking he could combine with anybody for nearly 200 innings is no certainty, that’s for sure.
Trusting Dave’s math (which excludes a bullpen effect of fewer starter innings, so I don’t entirely buy it) we’re still sacrificing 5 runs this year by making the trade.
The upside of the scenario is that we gain runs next year (and this is also assuming Hardy isn’t a bust, which his back, park effects, and lower peripherals will hint at).
What is undervalued in this whole thing is 2009. Assets (which these pitchers, overvalued or otherwise are) have a time value. This is why people take out loans knowing they have to pay back more than they take out. By not making this trade (if it’s doable) the M’s are loaning 2010 success for 2009 success to the tune of what, +5 runs this year vs. +10, 20 runs next year? Teams make these sort of trades all the time, ala Red Sox trading Hanley Ramirez to win a 2005 WS – achieve current success, because the future is more unknowable – the M’s may not be making a playoff run in 2010, at least this year we can give them a 15% chance.
I’m fully on board with the win now and later philosophy, but see this as a win less now strategy – a Seller’s stance.
After reading Brewer’s blogs, I’m also pretty confident that a package of a starter, reliever, and prospect will get the job done. They want a setup man for Hoffman, and have somewhat soured on JJ (though still value him highly). (They also seem just as happy about playoff possibilities as being better than the Cubs…..fans *sigh*)
There’s not a lot of reason to think that Bedard/Washburn replacements will throw less than those two, and there’s certainly no reason to think that it’ll be a large gap, or that it would cause the bullpen to perform worse.
Intangibles alert! Prepare your collective cringe reflex!
…does it really matter so little as to how this proposed trade would go over with their former teammates?
Washburn/Bedard probably doesn’t receive a similiar reaction and, IMO, that will affect the mindsets of some players when they hit the field.
Yes, I’m fully aware that we can’t measure intangibles. But Zduriencik doesn’t have the luxury of ignoring them entirely…
I agree that he can ignore the intangibles. With that said, I also think that positive intangibles have been left out of the picture. I think that the intangibles make this a good trade too.
First, wonderful hunting stories aside, losing Jarrod Washburn is not going to cripple our pitching staff. Time spent with Erik Bedard is not instrumental to the future of the kids either. I would argue that Rick Adair, John Wetteland and a solid defense are much more tangible reasons for the overall success of our young pitchers.
Second, opening up slots in the starting rotation is not going to hurt morale one iota. It will be easier for these kids to prove themselves and gain confidence if they are pitching with a top tier defense covering their backs. At the end of the day — even if they are unselfishly providing helpful pointers, encouragement and fresh venison — these two veterans are standing in the way of eager young arms. I would argue that opportunity trumps nostalgia every time.
Third, this is really not an earth shattering proposal. Washburn and Bedard are not beloved Seattle institutions by any stretch. As most of you recall, Jamie Moyer left for Philadelphia in August of 2006. Like Washburn, he had racked up 6 wins that year in a Mariners uniform. An angry mob did not burn Safeco down the day he was traded for Andrew Barb and Andrew Baldwin. I would argue that Jamie was and still is exponentially more beloved by Seattle fans than Jarrod and Erik combined. Any fallout from this trade would be minimal at most. Especially, if the young staff makes the most of the opportunity.
Finally, the fear that J.J. Hardy will put up great numbers and then just flee Seattle after 2010 is unfounded. If Hardy were to come over in a trade, he would continue the healthy relationship with Jack Zduriencik that began years ago. If J.J. bought into Don Wakamatsu’s system, established himself and helped win a bunch of ballgames, why would he want to leave without a word of negotiation?
The numbers make this a very good move, and frankly, most of the intangibles do too.
If fans writing blogs made decisions on trades for MLB teams, the M’s wouldn’t have Bedard on the roster in the first place and this whole question would be moot.
Its called “decline.” Alot of players decline after 31, and Wilson was not exactly a very good player before.
The fact that his UZR is the best in his career and is over 30? I am not saying he is going to turn into Derek Jeter in a year; but its likely that he is not going to be a type flight defender next year.
See above. Offensively he is having a decent, but not career year. Still not that impressive since he is hitting about the same as incredibly unlucky JJ Hardy.
Your arguments and spelling are not exactly passable either.
You’re just not making a strong argument.
Dave – what about Hardy’s move to the AL and Safeco? I don’t think he can put up a .338 wOBA in Safeco, and it calls into question whether he’s a 4-win player in 2010.
Morrow averages 4 2/3 inning a start this year, and even throw out the first two where he was being stretched out, he still has yet to go beyond the 6th.
RRS averages about 5.5 in Tacoma right now.
(Olson averages about 5.5, same for Vargas.)
Wash avgs about 6 2/3
EB avgs about 5 2/3
About an inning a start difference. There has been little faith (expressed on this site) in the bullpen beyond Aardsma and maybe Kelley, why should they perform better given more innings? If they were capable of being overworked before or were lucky despite their wild ways before, why not with lesser starters eating fewer innings?
But really splitting hairs here – let’s just call it a miniscule effect and throw it out of the equation. I’m fine with ignoring this detail if you want. The original argument still stands that time value is discounted and this proposed Hardy trade is essentially taking a seller’s stance.
This has been a fun comment thread.
I disagree there’s been little faith expressed in the bullpen.
Further, you’re arguing that we should use the average Washburn/Bedard IP, which assumes that they make all their starts at their current rate. But there’s the next problem: how likely is it that those two are going to take every one of their turns anyway? And for every start they don’t make, you’re spotting one of those guys anyway. Beyond which, there are some issues with using IP/start here but I’m not going to press the point since it’s been conceded.
The thing is, assume it is two IP/rotation turn. If you’re carrying a 12-man staff 5/7, that means you’re increasing the average reliever’s workload by a third of an inning every time through the rotation. If you’re carrying 13 it’s even more trivial. One more out per guy per rotation turn isn’t a massive increase that is going to affect their workload.
Then perhaps I am misinterpreting from “Bullpen Options” July 9th: this collection of bullpen arms has been overachieving all season or they don’t throw enough strikes
I would hope the starters can go deeper into games, and putting inning-eating faith into Morrow and RRS is a tougher pill to swallow than Wash and EB.
Perhaps the upgrade in defense from a Hardy at short would help the AAA starters go longer.
It’s really a seller’s argument trying to make us better for 2010.
[no]
Bedard AND Washburn, both super-valuable on the trade market, just to get a .260 hitting shortstop who’s having a bad year? Who do you think you are, Bill Bavasi? (That’s said in jest). I might give them both for Escobar, but not for Hardy.
Dave – what about Hardy’s move to the AL and Safeco? I don’t think he can put up a .338 wOBA in Safeco, and it calls into question whether he’s a 4-win player in 2010.
re: trading Beltre -
You’d know better than I whether he’ll be back soon, I sort of doubt it… the thought was that he has value even as a guy at team could offer arbitration to. Though with the widespread “panic”, I guess it’s not a sure thing that any team would want to offer him arbitration.
I’ll admit that at first, Bedard and Washburn seemed a bit much for Hardy. But as I read Dave’s impeccable math and logic, it makes perfect sense, as has Brad Nelson, Langerhans, Brignac, Snell, etc. The main hang up for most people is the drop off to Morrow and RRS, which is actually much smaller than it seems, showing that starting pitching is not as valuable as people think. This relative difference is something most people glaze over. For example, owning Brian McCann when everyone else in the majors has say, Kurt Suzuki is more valuable than owning Pujols when everyone else has Carlos Pena. Partly counterintuitive, but relative trumps absolute. Among players with as many PA’s as Cedeno, there’s about 15 that have a worse WAR. Yes, yes, Z, please trade easier-to-find starting pitching for hard-to-find, 4 WAR SS! (Oh, can we quantify how much Hardy’s defense over Cedeno’s could help our run defense?)
I’ll go with Pujols.