Lincoln and Armstrong

Dave · July 15, 2009 at 12:47 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Highighting a paragraph from Drayer’s latest:

We are going to have wheels up in a minute, but before I head off to Cleveland, one quick mention has to go out. Been listening to all sorts of analysis of the first half, first half mvps, awards etc. A big dose of credit should also go to Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong for making the choice of Jack Z, who made the choice of Wak. Howard and Chuck did not know Jack personally, and Jack did not know Wak. They all took risks after doing their homework, and without those works, we would not be where we were right now, which I daresay, is in much better position than this team has been in years.

Over the last five years, Howard Lincoln and Churck Armstrong have taken a massive beating from Mariner fans. There was a sizable part of the fanbase that held all the failures of the organization against them personally, and even during the GM search last winter, it was common to hear people make comments like “it doesn’t matter – this franchise can never win with those two in charge.” They were the least popular guys in the city, and they had to know it.

For instance, here’s one comment from our thread announcing Zduriencik’s hire:

I want to like this hiring but color me extremely skeptical. This was more or less the hiring I expected out of Stincoln and Armstrong.

Those two couldn’t think out of the box with a boxcar load of extra “THIS END UP” arrows. I think they picked a candidate that most reflected themselves and their perspective as franchise managers.

I agree with Dave that a great next step would be to hire a stat department to supplement their scouting perspective, but I’m not holding my breath that Stinkchuck will ever allow it.

That was how a lot of people reacted to the news, and it was a fairly predictable reaction. Lincoln and Armstrong had to know that the reaction was going to be something like that.

But Shannon is entirely right. Despite some fairly significant momentum for the M’s to hire a different kind of GM than the last few, Lincoln and Armstrong tabbed the candidate who most resembled Bill Bavasi – older, white (and bald – sorry Jack, but it’s true), from the scouting side of baseball, and a guy who came from an organization that wasn’t generally considered one of the “new school” type of teams. But he was the right guy to hire.

Since then, I think absolutely everyone following this team has realized just how great of a hire it was. Zduriencik has proven to not just be open about the new ways of evaluating talent, but excited about using all the information he can get his hands on. Literally, we couldn’t have dreamed of the M’s changing course in the way they have in the last 8 months. They’ve gone from laughingstock to well oiled machine, and they’ve done it because Howard and Chuck hired the right guy.

You might not like the two executives in charge of the team, but you have to admit that they made a great decision, and one that could easily turn out to be the most important in the history of the franchise. They literally changed the entire focus of the organization by hiring Zduriencik and allowing him to build a first class organization in Seattle.

So, congratualations, Messers Lincoln and Armstrong. You made the right choice, and we’ve all got years of great baseball to look forward to because of it.

Comments

60 Responses to “Lincoln and Armstrong”

  1. jimmylauderdale on July 15th, 2009 12:56 pm

    Excellent write-up, Dave. This is definitely something that has been overlooked. It seems that, despite being burned in the past, Lincoln in Armstrong hired someone [whose] methods they respected and have let him do his thing. I imagine there is no greater view from the top than simply looking down and seeing the pieces they have put into place working smoothly and efficiently. It is a great time to be a Mariner fan.

  2. gwangung on July 15th, 2009 1:12 pm

    Yes. Credit where credit is due. Armstrong and Lincoln made a good hire.

    I’m not looking at what happened; I’m looking at HOW it happened: examing team weaknesses and stengths, laying out a strategy and implementing that strategy well by using analyses that looked at all tools available.

    There may be a time coming when there are weaknesses apparent in the strategy (perhaps overemphasizing defense too much, etc.) but implementation has been first rate.

  3. EnglishMariner on July 15th, 2009 1:14 pm

    I’m just loving the feel-good attitude around the organisation at the moment. I have only been following the team for five years, and before this season it was a constant stream of negativity. I was angry at myself that, as a mature adult who had been passively following the game for years albeit in a non-baseball culture, I had allowed myself to support not only a poor team, but a badly run team.

    This has all changed in 2009, and I couldn’t be happier. I love baseball, but I love it even more when my team are doing well. These are exciting times, and I feel it is just the beginning.

  4. RoninX on July 15th, 2009 1:17 pm

    I absolutely agree. I’m not entirely sure if the process that HoChuck used to arrive at the hiring of Zduriencik was one that the USSM community would have been thrilled with (though it could have been). But sometimes the end results DO matter the most and Lincoln and Armstrong certainly hit a home run with their selections.

  5. gwangung on July 15th, 2009 1:20 pm

    I’m not entirely sure if the process that HoChuck used to arrive at the hiring of Zduriencik was one that the USSM community would have been thrilled with (though it could have been).

    How would we know? We weren’t in there for the interviews?

    We ARE somewhat more privvy to the processes the current team uses in building a roster, and THAT’S been more than competent.

  6. Xteve X on July 15th, 2009 1:21 pm

    My vitriolic outburst was quoted by one of my favorite bloggers of all time?

    Color me honored!

    And I completely agree that the Zduriencik hiring has been a smashing success so far. Well done, HowChuck.

  7. Carson on July 15th, 2009 1:26 pm

    Guilty as charged, and never been happier to eat crow.

  8. joser on July 15th, 2009 1:28 pm

    Paraphrasing what somebody said towards the end of the Betancourt “yay” thread:

    It might just be a blind squirrel (eventually) finding a nut, but nut they did find and thus praise they should get.

    Zduriencik seems to be one heck of a nut. Wakamatsu too.

  9. Steve T on July 15th, 2009 2:23 pm

    That’s what good executives DO. They make good hires. Where Chuck and Howard have failed miserably, and still fail miserably, is when they get into baseball. I still don’t think either one of them knows anything at all about baseball, and I think they still cringe when Zduriencik makes the moves we like. But Z is the baseball boss.

    I still remember when Chuck single-handedly stopped the Washburn move to Minnesota, leaving ten million bucks lying on the table.

  10. wabbles on July 15th, 2009 2:26 pm

    “Yes. Credit where credit is due. Armstrong and Lincoln made a good hire.”

    Yes, I find it very heartening and refreshing (since I often don’t do it myself), when powerful people step back and say, “Oh. Maybe we’ve been doing something wrong/could do something differently.” And then they at least loosen, if not cut, the apron strings and they are amazed at the results.
    Don’t meddle. Hire good people. Let them do their jobs. If they don’t, get new people.

  11. brian_sun on July 15th, 2009 2:30 pm

    I am still pissed at drafting Nick Franklin #27 and Steve Baron #33. And they ended up signing Baron at above slot money. To me, that draft has Howard Lincoln tight fists written all over it. Those 2 guys were not the best talent on the board at the time that they were drafted. They don’t represent the best value, and I have a hard time believing Jack Z’s scouts rank them as high as they were drafted. Thanks Howard Lincoln for screwing up the draft.

  12. Dave on July 15th, 2009 2:32 pm

    Lincoln and Armstrong had nothing to do with the draft.

  13. joser on July 15th, 2009 2:39 pm

    Not to mention all those “better talent” guys might never make it to the majors, or never amount to much of anything if they do. Why obsess about something that’s so much of a crapshoot even when you take all the supposed “right” players? At least the M’s now actually have draft picks these days. In the Gillick era they were all given away as compensation.

  14. et_blankenship on July 15th, 2009 2:39 pm

    Even blind squirrels serve crow once in a while.

  15. Adam B. on July 15th, 2009 2:41 pm

    I would like to point out that grading a draft at the time it’s made is rather preemptive.

    After all, Zduriencik has something of a reputation for having an eye for talent, and so far his player acquisitions have born fruit.

    I say wait a year or so before you completely discount the post #2 picks of 2009.

  16. robbbbbb on July 15th, 2009 2:41 pm

    We’re really lucky to have Shannon Drayer covering this team for us. She does a terrific job at something that good analysts can never provide us: She gets excellent interviews with the players and provides good human-interest material. While I love USSM, that’s something that Derek and Dave cannot provide to us Mariner fans.

    Her commentary from last week on Yuniesky Betancourt was pretty well perfect: She was able to dig into his shortcomings on the field, talk to other players about Betancourt’s work habits and the like, but then, at the end, she drops into a personal story about the guy and reminds you that he’s human, just like the rest of us.

  17. brian_sun on July 15th, 2009 2:47 pm

    But the budget set by Lincoln on signing draft picks had everything to do with who they picked in the draft.

  18. Eastside Crank on July 15th, 2009 2:49 pm

    Credit where credit is due; L/A made a great hire and in doing so turned the team around 180 degrees. I am actually looking forward to the rest of the season and not worrying about where the Mariners might draft. That said it sure looked like the Mariners were very conservative on their early picks. I do not know how much that reflects Zduriencik’s philosophies and how much that reflects the Mariners trying to save money.

  19. spokane dude on July 15th, 2009 2:56 pm

    I agree with Robb about Shannon Drayer. I never fully appreciated her until this year. Her posts have a nice balance of human interest, information and analysis. I like that she appreciates that these guys are human beings and helps us understand why things we think we see may not be the full story. And though I sometimes cringe when she relates stories about how she encourages or chastises a player (stepping beyond the traditional journalist-player relationship), part of me likes her playing that big sister role. It’s clear to me that approach helps her to get access that we, as fans, clearly benefit from. Nice work, Shannon. Oh, and to Howard and Chuck, a salute to you too. You deserve some credit after all the dirty, rotten things I’ve said about you in the past.

  20. RoninX on July 15th, 2009 3:07 pm

    How would we know? We weren’t in there for the interviews?

    Hence my qualifier that it *could* have been a good process – but I don’t believe that the processes that Jack Z is using to build the roster is necessarily reflective of HoChuck’s process for finding a GM. It certainly could be, but as you point out we really don’t know.

    Hopefully we won’t get another chance to look at Lincoln and Armstrong GM finding skills for a long time to come!

    Regardless, they certainly came out of this one with a winner.

  21. MKT on July 15th, 2009 3:20 pm

    That’s what good executives DO. They make good hires.

    Right, but they also made a very bad hire (Bavasi) and stuck with him too long.

    The current hire has led to very good results; the question that I still have is: was this due to Llncoln/Armstrong seeing the error of their ways and making a smarter hire? Or was it the blind squirrel syndrome, and they made a lucky hire?

  22. Dave on July 15th, 2009 3:20 pm

    But the budget set by Lincoln on signing draft picks had everything to do with who they picked in the draft.

    No it didn’t.

  23. SonOfZavaras on July 15th, 2009 3:24 pm

    I’ve despised their meddling for so long that it’s difficult for me to lavish any sort of praise towards HowChuck.

    But, kudos for the hiring of Zduriencik (a GM who isn’t a short-sighted imbecile, yayyyyy), and by proxy the hire of Wakamatsu.

    Hasn’t felt this good to be an M’s fan in the better part of a decade!

  24. Kazinski on July 15th, 2009 3:25 pm

    But the budget set by Lincoln on signing draft picks had everything to do with who they picked in the draft.

    Of course there is a budget, we aren’t the Yankees. There will also be a budget this winter when we are looking at free agents and resigning players, and I guarantee it won’t be unlimited, and I have a hard time thinking that somehow that is Lincoln and Armstrong’s “fault”.

  25. TranquilPsychosis on July 15th, 2009 3:32 pm

    But the budget set by Lincoln on signing draft picks had everything to do with who they picked in the draft.

    It makes sense that there be some sort of team budget on how much they’re willing to sign a draftee for. But doesn’t the slot pretty much define a general range of where that dollar level is?

    I can’t really see HowChuck having control over that. Am I mistaken?

  26. SonOfZavaras on July 15th, 2009 3:36 pm

    McNamara was the be-all, end-all word on all things draft, right? Not Zduriencik, Lincoln or Armstrong.

  27. Typical Idiot Fan on July 15th, 2009 3:37 pm

    I could continue to be a bitter little bitch about this and instead of giving kudos I could say “thanks for starting to make up for all your foul ups over the years, but you still got a long way to go, boys.” Then in the mean time I can still hate them while still loving Jack and Co. I mean, what makes them think all’s forgiven just because they got a big one right?

    But, enh. I don’t live in the past, so I wont bother. Bring on the future!

  28. canofcorn on July 15th, 2009 3:55 pm

    I still remember when Chuck single-handedly stopped the Washburn move to Minnesota, leaving ten million bucks lying on the table.

    Lee was an interim GM. Chuck did not act out of turn in blocking that trade. Besides, you should bring that up only if you are prepared to heap further praise on Lincoln and Armstrong. Do you really believe that retaining Washburn has worked against the team?

  29. currcoug on July 15th, 2009 3:55 pm

    The “beating” was well-deserved, and earned over Armstrong/Lincoln’s long tenure as Mariner executives.

    Yes, they made a great decision in hiring Z. Huzzah! However, we are still paying for their mistakes in hiring and then retaining Bavasi. Bavasi’s mistakes were far-reaching, and continue to hobble Z’s ability to turn the team into a WS contender. I speak of the bloated contracts of Silva, Johjima, and the loss of Freddy, Guillen, Cabrera, Choo, Jones, Sherrill, Mickolio, and Tillman…in exchange for mostly horse dung.

    A fair argument can also be made that they should have signed Raul.

  30. fiftyone on July 15th, 2009 3:59 pm

    I eagerly await the first post from brian_sun the day after we win the 2013 World Series. Perhaps something along the lines of, “2014 is going to suck with L/A at the controls, mark my words.”

  31. TranquilPsychosis on July 15th, 2009 4:02 pm

    I speak of the bloated contracts of Silva, Johjima, and the loss of Freddy, Guillen, Cabrera, Choo, Jones, Sherrill, Mickolio, and Tillman…in exchange for mostly horse dung.

    Don’t forget Soriano in that sad list.

    A fair argument can also be made that they should have signed Raul

    Ibanez was not a mistake. The mariners got exactly what they needed out of him leaving.

  32. Jeff Nye on July 15th, 2009 4:08 pm

    It always amazes me the level of insight that some people claim to have into the inner workings of the Mariners’ decision-making process.

    Combine that with the level of grudges some people seem to be able to hold, and I don’t think we’ll ever see the “the team won’t ever be anything until Lincoln and Armstrong’s heads are on pikes outside Safeco” diatribe come to an end.

  33. Paul B on July 15th, 2009 4:16 pm

    Ibanez was not a mistake. The mariners got exactly what they needed out of him leaving.

    I agree. Raul is having a great 2009 so far, albeit hobbled by an injury, but I still think the multi year deal will come back to bite Philly in the next year or two (Richie Sexson had a pretty darn good first year with the M’s).

    Getting a couple of draft picks for Raul was the right decision. Outbidding Philly for his services would have been the wrong decision.

  34. big hawna on July 15th, 2009 4:30 pm

    Sorry to interrupt another USS yes-men parade, but to co-opt a phrase, small sample size-orama.

    The Ms have played well for a month… And picked up 1 game.

    Of the Jack Z guys, Gutierrez, Aardsma, and Branyan have been big contributors, and while Gutierrez really looks like a brilliant move, are Vargas, Branyan, Aardsma solutions to any of the organizations problems? Or will they return to career levels, or more likely, fade. Griffey and Sweeney surely are not answers to anything. Cedeno, Chavez, Jakubaskas, Woodward, these are roster guys… Hannahan the defensive specialist? Are we looking at the same guy? Langerhans is a nice pick, but he is 25th or 26the guy on good team.

    They still have only a few guys in the system who look like offensive contributors in the bigs…

    There are three reasons why the Ms are winning, Washburn, Felix, and Bedard… None of these guys have any thing to do with Jack Z and two of them are gone some time between now and October 1.

    You like Wak, really why? I have no pb with the way he handles his staff, but his bunting strategy is nutty and will lose the Ms games, and he bears some responsibility for the ridiculous handling of Morrow. I don’t buy all the talk about the chemistry, the chemistry is 3 out o 5 days, you have great chance of holding the bad guys to 2 runs.

    Credit for Yuni dump, but taking advantage of the Royals is not exactly the stuff of genius, there is a long line of guys who have done that.

    So, this time next year, we can laud the genius of HowChuck and Z man, but not yet.

  35. jimforjim on July 15th, 2009 4:44 pm

    Well, I have to agree with the “blind squirrel finding the nut” theory. When Ronny Cedeno hits a 3 run homer, we don’t all decide that he’s Albert Pujols … and if Pujols strikes out (does he?), that doesn’t mean he’s Cedeno. Thank goodness Lincoln & Armstrong made an excellent hire, but based on their track record, would it be wise to expect that they will have similar success in future decisions? Maybe L & A tried to muck it up but Zduriencik was too smart to show them all his cards.

  36. Jeff Nye on July 15th, 2009 4:48 pm

    Sorry to interrupt another USS yes-men parade

    In the words of Ron Burgundy, “stay classy.”

  37. PositivePaul on July 15th, 2009 4:50 pm

    I don’t think anyone will accuse you and me of sharing a brain, Dave, but let’s just say I was in the process of writing a very similar article.

    My first big gripe was that they wouldn’t spend big money on players – that gripe was wiped away when they signed Beltre (and, well, OK, Sexson).

    My second gripe was that they didn’t know how to find a good front office if it bit them in the butts. I don’t think anyone with even 1/4 a brain can be disappointed in our current front office.

    I still wonder if it’s good results based on bad processes + good luck, but I’m certainly not going to complain that the M’s don’t spend money anymore and that they don’t know how to build a good front office.

    Maybe it’s time I thank Howie in person again…

  38. eponymous coward on July 15th, 2009 4:55 pm

    I feel pretty vindicated for having been always been of the position that if you’re going to crucify Lincoln/Armstrong for 2004-2008 and the Bavasi regime, you have to give them credit for 1999-2003 and the Gillick regime (and true to form, Pat went on to build another contender in Philly), and that there was every reason to not jump off a bridge when Zduriencik was hired.

    Lincoln and Armstrong are fine when a good GM is in the mix. Bavasi wasn’t a good GM, and you could figure that out from his time in Anaheim.

    Granted, Zduriencik has turned out even better than I thought he could, but hey…

    Sorry to interrupt another USS yes-men parade, but to co-opt a phrase, small sample size-orama.

    The Ms have played well for a month… And picked up 1 game.

    Seriously? Go look at last year’s record at the All-Star break. Now look at this year’s record. Zduriencik pulled that off without ANY major FA signing that would break the bank. Yes, I know, regression to the mean would imply that even someone like Bavasi should be able to get a 70-win team with the same roster as last year, etc., but still, the M’s are on pace for a 20+ win improvement on last year, while having more talent in the minors than at this time last year (thanks to astute trading), and lots of salary flexbility going forward. To minimize that is just not getting it.

  39. et_blankenship on July 15th, 2009 5:23 pm

    Of the Jack Z guys, Gutierrez, Aardsma, and Branyan have been big contributors, and while Gutierrez really looks like a brilliant move, are Vargas, Branyan, Aardsma solutions to any of the organizations problems? Or will they return to career levels, or more likely, fade. Griffey and Sweeney surely are not answers to anything. Cedeno, Chavez, Jakubaskas, Woodward, these are roster guys… Hannahan the defensive specialist?

    Go back and look at the challenges Jack faced when he was hired. The goal of shedding payroll despite a flock of albatross contracts and a roster full of holes seemed nearly impossible at the time, but he managed to make it work. That alone would have been good enough.

    But Jack didn’t just fill holes for the sake of filling holes. He successfully targeted and acquired some incredible bargains using a specific set of criteria. If all but a couple of those players fade to black and the M’s finish in last place, it’s still a victory.

  40. Evan on July 15th, 2009 5:23 pm

    While I agree entirely it was a great hire, and Lincoln and Armstrong deserve accolades for it, the reaction from some fans to the Yuni trade clearly demonstrate that this:

    I think absolutely everyone following this team has realized just how great of a hire it was.

    is false.

  41. Breadbaker on July 15th, 2009 5:25 pm

    The real credit goes to having the guts to admit, whether by word or deed, that the Bavasi hire was a mistake, that the formula for success in the game has changed and that they were at very great risk (a risk that, as the size of the weeknight crowds this season indicates, has not necessarily abated) of diminishing the very great financial advantage that the success from 1995-2003 and the opening of Safeco had engendered. They were extremely fortunate in having owners who didn’t show them the door before they got the chance to correct that with the hires of the past offseason.

  42. dchappelle on July 15th, 2009 5:43 pm

    Lincoln and Armstrong absolutely deserve a large amount of praise. One of the best things they do is hire a GM and let him go. Waaay too many owners/presidents/etc can not help meddling with the GM. So many teams (Royals *cough* *cough*) are terrible year after year, GM after GM, for this very reason. Sure, it meant they stayed with Bavasi too long, but that’s a price worth paying.

    That said, I’m still not convinced Zduriencik was the best choice. Was he a good choice? Absolutely. Was he the best choice possible? I don’t think so, but I sure hope to be proven wrong.

  43. Red Apple on July 15th, 2009 5:54 pm

    Of the Jack Z guys, Gutierrez, Aardsma, and Branyan have been big contributors, and while Gutierrez really looks like a brilliant move, are Vargas, Branyan, Aardsma solutions to any of the organizations problems? Or will they return to career levels, or more likely, fade. Griffey and Sweeney surely are not answers to anything. Cedeno, Chavez, Jakubaskas, Woodward, these are roster guys… Hannahan the defensive specialist? Are we looking at the same guy? Langerhans is a nice pick, but he is 25th or 26the guy on good team.

    Honestly, what do you expect? A 25-man traveling All-star team? Your expectations are out of whack.

    That said, I’m still not convinced Zduriencik was the best choice. Was he a good choice? Absolutely. Was he the best choice possible? I don’t think so, but I sure hope to be proven wrong.

    Unless you have access to multiple universes, that question can’t be answered. What would it take to convince you? More than a .500 plus record at the break? The second best UZR (and climbing) in the AL? The fifth best FIP in the AL?

  44. ThundaPC on July 15th, 2009 5:59 pm

    Hence my qualifier that it *could* have been a good process – but I don’t believe that the processes that Jack Z is using to build the roster is necessarily reflective of HoChuck’s process for finding a GM. It certainly could be, but as you point out we really don’t know.

    Hopefully we won’t get another chance to look at Lincoln and Armstrong GM finding skills for a long time to come!

    Actually, we do know the process they used in finding the next GM and it was a good one.

    As much as some folks want to believe that this was some wonderful accident or a stroke of luck, Lincoln and Armstrong really did take this GM search seriously. They weren’t kidding when they said they had to get this right.

    Lincoln/Armstrong essentially went out and got a hold of the best batch of available new age GMs-in-waiting and came up with Tony Bernazard, Jerry DiPoto, Tony LaCava, Kim Ng, Peter Woodfork, and Jack Zduriencik. They interviewed in-house selections Lee Pelekoudas and Bob Engle for good measure but they were clearly looking for outside help as neither of them made the finals.

    This, as opposed to their previous round of candidates in search for the Gillick successor (if I have this right): Lee Pelekoudas (internal), Benny Looper (internal), Omar Minaya, Al Avila, Bill Bavasi, Mike Port, and Dave Wilder. Benny Looper, Al Avila and Bill Bavasi were finalists. I’m sure it wouldn’t have been hard for them to round up a list of current old-school candidates if they wanted to.

    Ownership was said to be blown away by Zduriencik’s presentation during the interview process. Given what we know now, this should come as a surprise to no one. Zduriencik has been awesome.

    I’m very thankful that Lincoln and Armstrong got this decision right, especially in light of the Royals latest move of trading for Yuni. Given the reputation of the Royals organization I’m not sure if they even have a “hot seat”.

  45. mln on July 15th, 2009 6:05 pm

    Mr. Lincoln Armstrong has proved to be one of the most astute baseball men in the MLB.

    He is a baseball god!

  46. joser on July 15th, 2009 6:11 pm

    Sorry to interrupt another USS yes-men parade, but to co-opt a phrase, small sample size-orama.

    Yes, goodness knows the one thing USSM has be noted for over the years is excessive optimism and selling out to The Man.

    are Vargas, Branyan, Aardsma solutions to any of the organizations problems? Or will they return to career levels, or more likely, fade.

    Way to completely miss the point. Those guys were all picked up cheap to fill holes, and have delivered far more value than they cost. That’s the philosophy that is getting praised around here. Zduriencik said right from the start they were building a system and it would take time, yet he’s done a masterful job with cheap pieces in the short term as well. Need I remind you were this team was this time last year? Need I remind you where the team ended the season? Most of us couldn’t imagine the M’s getting to .500 in ’09, and yet that’s where things stand. At the end of last season I said 81 wins (an improvement by 20 games!) was the most we could hope for, and was probably out of reach, but I’d be incredibly happy if they managed it. I still feel that way, and find it almost unimaginable that we’re even talking about a pennant race.

    There are three reasons why the Ms are winning, Washburn, Felix, and Bedard…

    Actually, according to Wins Above Replacement, Gutierrez (3.1) has been more valuable than any Mariner not named Felix (3.8) or Ichiro (3.3); while Branyan (2.8) ranks ahead of Washburn (2.1) and Bedard (1.8) as well. (Granted, comparing pitchers and position players in this way is slightly bogus, but the point is that you’re overvaluing the pitching and undervaluing Gutierrez and Branyan). Oh, and while we’re talking about pitchers, let’s not forget Zduriencik hire Aardsma, good for 1.4 WAR so far. All of that is real value; even if they “fade” in the second half, those wins are in the books.

    Granted, Washburn is pitching better than his usual Mariners self (in his walk year, how convenient — just like his last peak value year, 2005, his walk year with the Angels). But his performance has also been helped enormously by the upgraded outfield (as predicted). In fact all of the pitchers have been aided by an improved defense, and that was entirely Zduriencik’s doing: trading an overvalued commodity (Putz) to a team that overvalued it the most (the Mets) in exchange for a lot of useful pieces (and particularly defensive pieces, which were somewhat undervalued; the fact that he got the Indians involved to get Gutierrez, and then flipped Heilman for Cedeno, shows where his focus was). You can’t praise the pitching without also crediting the defense, and improving the defense is arguably the biggest thing Zduriencik has done so far. And the process he has used — trading overvalued parts for undervalued parts, acquiring defense to support the pitching, filling holes using cheap pieces with some upside and no real downside — is why it may sound like a parade is going by on USSM from time to time. Because that’s how smart organization build better baseball teams in the 21st century.

    So, this time next year, we can laud the genius of HowChuck and Z man, but not yet.

    Again, need I remind you about where this team was when Zduriencik was hired? Yeah, things might be worse next year than this year — guys get hurt, things happen — but unless they all lose their minds, the process this front office is following is unlikely to fail them. They’re using all available information to make decisions based on rational evaluation of value. That will lead to improvements more times than not.

    But can we take you at your word, and expect a definitive post from you during next year’s all star break?

  47. joser on July 15th, 2009 6:21 pm

    And, since I missed the opportunity earlier, can I also add my voice to the praise of Shannon Drayer. She brings a unique perspective that provides incredible insight into the team, and I haven’t seen any other team blessed with a reporter quite like her. Sometimes we get caught up in the stats and the plays (and replays) and the wins (and losses) and forget these are real, mostly very young, men doing rather extraordinary things on a daily basis. She helps us see that, and adds so much depth and fun to the game and the Mariners who play it.

  48. diderot on July 15th, 2009 6:25 pm

    How would we know? We weren’t in there for the interviews?

    I still wonder if it’s good results based on bad processes + good luck

    It’s true–we don’t know their exact approach or what was said during the interviews. But based on the result, we do know several of the approaches they DIDN’T take:
    (1) “Our process in hiring Bavasi was flawless–he just turned out to be the wrong guy. Let’s not change our thinking now”
    (2) “We need to get the blogosphere off our backs. Too many of our fans are reading that stuff. So let’s look at the top three picks over at USS Mariner and make sure we pick one of them”
    (3) “We need someone young…someone with a fresh perspective”
    (4) “Whatever we do, we’ve got to get someone with GM experience”
    (5) “Let’s take that woman–automatically that gives us some good PR, and we need it”
    (6) “Let’s get someone we already know and trust”

    The list could go on. And I’d be surprised if some of these thoughts didn’t go through their heads. But the fact that they acted on none of them would seem to indicate that they approached the process not only with an open mind, but maybe even put the interests of the organization above their own self-interests.

    Old dogs…new tricks?

  49. Dave in Palo Alto on July 15th, 2009 7:10 pm

    Me too on Shannon Drayer.

    Long may she blog.

  50. Jake N. on July 15th, 2009 7:50 pm

    Ok, I for one will never laud the success of Jak Z’s hire to Chuck and Howy. They had alot of time and I am quite sure, alot of help finding the new GM. I would wager there were alot of resources used by Howy and Chuck “people that actualy know baseball” to make a final choice in Jak Z. If Chuck and Howy were actually that sharp, they would never had let Bavasi stumble around in the dark for that long. OMG HoRam for Soriano Sheezz..

    Now for the good stuff. Man Have I enjoyed this year. It has been deeply interesting to come here to USSM and learn. The analysis of Sabermetrics and how they are applying to our Mariners. And for fuck sake this shit works. It has been great, Awesome even. We all have had a front row seat of how a team should be changed and molded using Sabermectrics as the tool to back up the methods. In every way shape and form the arguements are laid forth and proven. It is almost like Dave is running the Mariners! Hes not but it is getting creepy close.

  51. EricL on July 15th, 2009 8:41 pm

    That’s what good executives DO. They make good hires.

    Actually, any executive, good or bad, can make good hires.

    Good executives, on the other hand, let their good hires be good hires.

    The also get rid of the bad hires as soon as feasible.

    The pair are doing right by Z and Wak. And, as it’s the most recent performance, I’m hoping it turns into a trend.

    But it’s a pretty small sample size given their body of work so far.

  52. djw on July 15th, 2009 9:07 pm

    I would wager there were alot of resources used by Howy and Chuck “people that actualy know baseball” to make a final choice in Jak Z.

    I have no idea if this is true, but if it is that would be too their credit, as well. They recognized they needed help to do their jobs properly, and they sought out the necessary help. Good for them!

  53. TomTuttle on July 15th, 2009 10:23 pm

    The blind squirrels FINALLY found the nut after driving Piniella and Gillick out of town and then subjecting us to 5.5 years of Bob Melvin, Mike Hargrove, John McLaren, and of course, those nearly 5 years of Bill Bavasi.

    Thank GOD they got it right.

  54. JMHawkins on July 16th, 2009 12:34 am

    Funny, I was thinking about Lincoln and Armstrong while reading through the JJ Hardy thread. Like several folks commenting in that thread, my initial response to Bedard+Washburn for Hardy was a bit of shock. Surely they would have more value than that. Surely one of them plus Wlad or Clement would get Hardy.

    And a few years ago, that would have been true. A few years ago, a lefty starter with name recognition and a sparkling ERA would have commanded more value. But not any more. Back then there were more Bavasis and fewer Zdurienciks running clubs. The general level of competence in Front Offices around the league has increased quite a bit in recent years. The realization that we suddenly have a smart GM blinds a few of us to the fact that we’re still playing catch-up with a whole bunch of other teams. They got their smart GMs a few years ago, while we were still overpaying for guys with name recognition and intangibles.

    Which is what brought me to thinking about Lincoln and Armstrong. They are late to the party in upgrading the front office, but at least they are finally there. And as Pittsburgh shows, they’re not the last guests to arrive.

    So boo for waiting until Edgar was retired and Ichiro in his mid-thirties before getting smart, but yah for finally doing it.

  55. Rusty on July 16th, 2009 5:38 am

    [this is not a board]

  56. Bryce on July 16th, 2009 6:28 am

    Great post, Dave. I think Armstrong and Lincoln need to be given a huge amount of credit for hiring somebody to run the team that has a completely different philosophy from who they’d hired before.

    It’s not easy for any boss, let alone executives in an extremely visible organization like the Mariners, to publicly fall on their sword and admit that their business philosophy has been a complete failure. A & L did that, to their credit, and then they went out and fixed it when they could have easily kept on doing what they were doing.

    I’m more optimistic about the M’s future than I’ve ever been in 15 years of following the team. Obviously that’s the result of Zduriencik, but like you said, in the end you have to give A & L the credit too. And if the wreckage of Bavasi’s tenure results in many years of success under Zduriencik, then as bad as that time was, it was worth it.

  57. TranquilPsychosis on July 16th, 2009 9:42 am

    And if the wreckage of Bavasi’s tenure results in many years of success under Zduriencik, then as bad as that time was, it was worth it.

    It was worth it? Seriously?

    The last 4 seasons have been as horrific as any fan could bear. Especially after the Piniella years when the Mariners were actually contending.
    The logic that this was ok to go through now that we have Z is eluding me.

  58. joser on July 16th, 2009 2:25 pm

    Getting a couple of draft picks for Raul was the right decision. Outbidding Philly for his services would have been the wrong decision.

    Exactly. We’ll see what the Phaithful think by the end of his deal. Besides, I think you can make a pretty good case that Raul wouldn’t be having the season he’s having (at the plate or in the field) if he was still playing half his games at Safeco.

    The logic that this was ok to go through now that we have Z is eluding me.

    It’s the same logic that puts dessert at the end of the meal.

  59. TranquilPsychosis on July 17th, 2009 12:11 pm

    It’s the same logic that puts dessert at the end of the meal.

    Do you mean the “wrong end” of the meal?

  60. MKT on July 17th, 2009 12:35 pm

    It’s the same logic that puts dessert at the end of the meal.

    Do you mean the “wrong end” of the meal?

    “Life is uncertain. Eat dessert first.”

    Words to live by.

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