Game 89, Mariners at Indians
Jeff Nye · July 16, 2009 at 4:23 pm · Filed Under Game Threads, Mariners
4:05, FSN.
I’ll post lineups shortly.
Lineups:
SEATTLE MARINERS
Ichiro Suzuki – RF
Russell Branyan – 1B
Jose Lopez – 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. – DH
Franklin Gutierrez – CF
Ryan Langerhans – LF
Kenji Johjima – C
Chris Woodward – 3B
Ronny Cedeno – SS
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Grady Sizemore – CF
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS
Shin-Soo Choo – RF
Victor Martinez – 1B
Travis Hafner – DH
Jhonny Peralta – 3B
Ben Francisco – LF
Jamey Carroll – 2B
Kelly Shoppach – C
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In the 2nd inning when Gutierrez was up, Niehaus was describing him and actually said: “…he’s death to flying things in the outfield.”
Doesn’t USSM have a trademark on that?
I had a feeling it would be one of those nights in the 1st inning on Branyan’s double. That ball hung in the air forever, then rebounded off the wall past Sizemore towards right center. I know Russell has 3 bases here, and thinking if it keeps rolling he might even get the inside the parker… Then they get the ball, throw it back in, and Russell is trotting into second base?
It just seemed like a ton of mental mistakes were made tonight, and against Cliff Lee, that’s not going to get it done.
Niehaus is the one who started DTFT
“Doesn’t USSM have a trademark on that?”
I thought it was Niehaus that originally called him that in the first place and the USSM picked it up. Am I wrong?
And, IIRC, Niehaus picked it up from the nickname of some 1890’s ballplayer.
You do realize that Ryan Howard just shattered Ralph Kiner’s mark as the fastest player to reach 200 home runs. Ever.
Anyone that puts up numbers close to Ryan Howard’s isn’t going to have a hard time finding a regular job in the majors. If the M’s had Rookie of the Year, 2 time All-Star, MVP talent (or something close to it) waiting in the minors Bavasi would have traded it away and Zduriencik would have called it up already.
Argh. Beat me to it.
“If anyone is 1 for 20 against anyone on my team, he is sitting out that day.”
I was thinking that you could somewhat make up for the small sample size you see with a lot of hitter/pitcher matchups (i’m talking 50 to 100+ AB’s, not 20) by not paying attention to BA, but rather look at things like line drive rate, swing and miss rate, BAIP, and stuff like that and then compare it to the league averages against that pitcher.
Because of the limited sample sizes you still probably couldn’t come up with a perfect model, but might be able to tell something about the top and bottom third people (in terms of success/failure), with probably too much room for error to say anything about the middle third. But in the end maybe could come up with a better model than most managers and what not use (batting average and HR against a given pitcher) Thoughts?
Oh and I meant to add, also factor in the players normal numbers (line drive rate, BAIP, swing and miss, etc) against all pitchers. Could be crap, but just something I’ve been musing over lately. It would be really nice for someone to come up with a good model (even if not perfect), to determine how good player X is against pitcher Y. The current model managers use of using things like batting average over 20 AB’s or whatever is so incredibly bad that just about anything you’d think would be an improvement. Again, thoughts?
Death to Flying Things was a nickname originally given to Robert Vavasour Ferguson. A short time later it was also bestowed on John Curtis Chapman. Both players had careers in the 19th century. Dave Niehaus referenced this bit of history when he first associated the term with Franklin Gutierrez.
Interesting history about the nickname “Death to Flying Things.”
But the question begs, who in the MLB should be dubbed “Life to Flying Things”?
Death to Flying Things
That’s one (just one) of the things that made the Yuni trade so ridiculous — if KC had waited, they could’ve gotten a Red Sox cast off for free. They still could, and he’d still be an upgrade over Betancourt (Lugo is -.3 WAR so far this year, but Yuni is -.8, which means Lugo is a one win upgrade over an entire season).
Interesting about the Death To Flying Things nickname. Really doesn’t sound like a 19th Century phrase at all, but very cool.
I thought Dave (or someone) did a post on this once, but maybe I read it somewhere else. At any rate, my understanding is that normal projections taking only handedness into account have far more predictive value than even the most extreme (ie, 1/20 or 12/20) pitcher-batter stats. Breadbaker is surely correct that a smart manager might think about matchups in a more subjective way, but the actual stats are beyond worthless.
Mike Wilson at least deserves a shot to either prove or disprove him self. He at least would be an instant upgrade over anyone currantly on our bench. Also I’m not saying he will put up Ryan Howard numbers. I was just pointing out their simular career paths. As Howard didn’t make his big league debut till he was 25, Wilson is 26. Look at what Nelson Cruz is doing with the Rangers. You never know what you have until you actually test the product.
The knock on Wilson is his defense. This teams outfield is built around defense, and hopefully the infield will get there too. Bringing in an all hit, no defense outfielder is the last thing we need. If we need to bring somebody up it should be Saunders, we need D to go with the O. And Saunders AAA .907 ops is probably more legitimate as Wilson’s .971ops in AA.
If you want to make a case for Wilson, then he should learn to play first then he can compete with Shelton for the righthanded backup 1B/DH.
Dave has used it (sparingly) in the past, as well, for other players.