Fun Thought Of The Day
In thinking about what the M’s should do at the trade deadline, I had a thought that hasn’t been discussed anywhere else that I know of. Given the saturation of coverage the buy or sell decision has gotten, that’s pretty rare indeed, so I figured I’d share this outside-the-box* piece of thinking with you all.
On July 29th, the M’s are scheduled to play the Blue Jays at 1:40 pm at Safeco Field. The tentative pitching match-up: Erik Bedard vs Roy Halladay.
If those pitchers take the hill that afternoon, you have to think the M’s are something like 25% to win, 75% to lose. Halladay is that good. Take Halladay out of the picture, and our win probability probably rises to 50%, maybe higher depending on who replaces him. So, having Roy Halladay get traded before he starts against the Mariners next Wednesday would be worth something like 1/4 of a win to the M’s.
Given the team’s current place in the standings, wins are extremely valuable. Teams pay $4 to $5 million per win in free agency, but the marginal value of a win is significantly higher once teams have figured out that they’re in contention by the summer. In reality, the marginal value of a win to the Mariners is probably more like $6-$8 million right now. You could potentially argue that it’s worth up to $10 million, depending on how much revenue you think the team could generate from a playoff series at Safeco this fall.
So, 25% of one win is worth somewhere between $1.5 and $2.5 million to the M’s. Split the difference, and we’ll just call it $2 million. If the M’s want to really think outside the box as the deadline approaches, they’ll figure out which team is the leading contender to acquire Halladay, call that GM up, and offer him $2 million in cash to get the deal done on July 28th. Call it the We-Don’t-Want-To-Have-To-Face-Him bounty.
Perhaps the most important trade the M’s could be involved with is one where no players from their organization move at all. Don’t worry about improving the roster – bribe Ruben Amaro to improve his!
*I’m 95% kidding. But man, it would be fun to see Selig’s reaction if he found out that one GM was trying to bribe another into making a deal that didn’t involve his team.