The Washburn To Milwaukee Stuff
As you’ve probably read by now, both Geoff Baker and his Milwaukee counterpart Tom Haudricourt are speculating that the M’s and Brewers could make a deal for Jarrod Washburn as early as tomorrow. His next scheduled start is on Tuesday, and the Brewers don’t currently have a starting pitcher for that day – add in the fact that Brewers GM Doug Melvin has publicly talked about his desire to add an arm despite his unwillingness to give up his top two young players (SS Alcides Escobar and 3B Mat Gamel), which would take him out of the running for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, along with Washburn being from Wisconsin, and you have the recipe for a deal that makes a lot of sense. Plus, there’s that whole Zduriencik-Milwaukee tie which should making trading with the Brewers fairly easy.
Washburn helps Milwaukee a lot more than he helps the M’s. If they’re not going to give up Escobar or Gamel in a bid for one of the Cy Young arms, this is their best fallback plan. And, as we talked about recently, they have depth at SS – the big glaring weakness in the M’s organization. It all fits.
However, don’t count on Hardy coming back for Washburn in a one for one deal (that would just be a horrible move for the Brewers), and don’t expect Alcides Escobar to be coming to Seattle at all. If the Brewers were willing to move Escobar, they’d go get Halladay or Lee, because he’s good enough to headline a package for one of those two. The only reason the Brewers would settle for Washburn is because they were dead set on retaining Escobar. If he’s actually available (and Melvin insists that he’s not), they’ve got bigger fish to fry.
There is likely a deal to be made involving Washburn and stuff for Hardy and stuff, which is what I’d bet on right now. But Escobar? Don’t hold your breath.
By the way, don’t be surprised if Carlos Villanueva is coming back to Seattle in any deal the M’s make with the Brewers. He’s falling out of favor in Milwaukee, thanks to a 6.18 ERA in relief, but his FIP is just 4.22. His fastball is underwhelming, but he throws a bunch of off-speed stuff and has solid command, and he’s got experience in the rotation. He’s the kind of major league arm that the M’s would like to get to replace Washburn, and one that the Brewers would actually be willing to give up.
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FWIW Escobar was taken out of the 7th in his game today for w/e reason.
This post was so charged that it took the website down with it…..
Escobar would be a good start to acquire Halladay but Toronto would demand at least two more pieces. And maybe Doc doesn’t want to play in Milwaukee. But that’s neither here nor there.
I will expect Hardy but hope for Escobar.
FWIW Escobar was taken out of the 7th in his game today for w/e reason.
If they trade Hardy, Escobar’s going to Milwaukee and sharing the SS job with Craig Counsell. So, regardless of which SS they trade, Escobar’s leaving Triple-A.
Escobar is obviously the more desirable player, so what do you include along with Washburn to get him?
Is Washburn + Clement for Escobar too much?
While Washburn + Wladimier is not nearly enough.
Maybe the better question to ask is: Do these types of trades (Veteran + prospect for a prospect) often happen, or is it uncommon?
I’ll take your answer off the air…
This may fit in with Escobar being taken out of the game… I was talking with Jack Z after the 9-0 game on Friday, and I asked him about the chances of getting JJ Hardy in a deal. He said “it wouldn’t happen” and that his old friends don’t want to part with Hardy at all. He did mention that there have been many scouts coming to the games from other teams, but wouldn’t say which teams.
Now before you go flaming me saying “whatever”, let me just say that I have no reason to lie, in fact, Jack was very kind to the few of us waiting at the player exit after the game. Take it for a grain of salt since you don’t know me personally, but just wanted to let people know what I heard directly from the GM.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that the scouts were there for Washburn (mostly).
Morrow + Washburn for JJ Hardy. Let’s do it.
How does this fit with the three-team rumors where the M’s give up Morrow and Clement and get back Brignac and Kasmir? We’ve suddenly got too many shortstops! (kidding)
Dave, is Hardy a good get for us? He’s only under club control for another year, right? Would you prefer him to Brignac or vice versa?
I really appreciate what you and Derek, not to mention all the other guys who contribute here, do. I’ve been an M’s fan ever since I knew what baseball was. This site really enhances my experience as a fan. Thank you.
I have to agree with Dave over Geoff on this one.
I just don’t see any reason why Doug Melvin would make such a public fuss about keeping Gamel and Escobar and then trade one of them for a native rental plus spare parts.
You could argue posturing on Melvin’s part, but Dave’s point about Halladay and Lee’s availability along with the general imbalance of such a trade (Doug Melvin is NOT Bill Bavasi.) make it seem highly unlikely we’d land Escobar over Hardy.
Then again, Maybe Zduriencik took Melvin out for some beers and a few shrooms, or the M’s feel like including Aumont or Triunfel with Washburn.
Suffice to say, I’m not holding my breath for Escobar, but I’d be pleased as punch if we receive Hardy in the deal.
I really hope we don’t trade for Hardy.
The last thing we need is another starting bat that can’t hit. It’s true that he has been able to produce in previous years, but I think it’s best if we use the present as a tool for evaluation.
If they let go of Morrow, then they better net someone who they can control for awhile.
TradeYou…,
Dave did a small write-up pretty recently on Mr. Hardy.
Yes, he is a good get. Pretty much ANYTHING is a good get for Washburn at this point, but Hardy isn’t as bad offensively as he’s been playing, and his D is good if not great.
We also have to realize that there’s a decent chance that the M’s don’t trade for either Hardy or Escobar. The Brewers could offer something like Carlos Villanueva and Taylor Green for Washburn, and the M’s would probably have to take it.
I know we’re not getting Escobar, but what kind of a player is he? He’s mostly glove, so is he Elvis Andrus? Better with the glove and bat?
I wouldn’t give up Morrow for just Hardy, but I don’t think the Brewers would give up Hardy for just Washburn either.
If this goes down, It’s probably a package deal on both sides.
If the M’s don’t get good value, then why bother? If I were Z I would force the Brewers hand, if they don’t budge, then try another team for a lesser package.
I would also think it behooves the Mariners to wait and see what happens with Halladay and Lee before shipping Washburn off.
The Phillies and Dodgers are also hot for another starter, and if your team doesn’t land either of those players, Washburn suddenly becomes an attractive option.
No way is Washburn/Clement too much – it wouldn’t be close to enough.
Clement still has some value, but it’s limited almost exclusively to AL clubs.
Washburn, as I’m sure Dave’s noted many times, is a two (maybe three) month rent-a-player who unlike CC Sabathia a year ago, will not have Type A FA status at the end of the year. Nor is he nearly as dominant regardless of what his numbers currently look like.
The Brewers obviously covet Escobar a great deal and I doubt anything short of unloading our farm system would help bring him to Seattle.
I’d rather wait than settle for a decent package. We can get that decent package on the 31st.
Right, because there’s no risk involved with holding onto pitchers until the deadline. They never get hurt or anything.
Oh, wait.
This is a seller’s market, so overpaying for Washburn is to be expected.
Risk and reward. Playing a weak hand will get you no chips, bluff a little, and you might get somewhere.
Jason Churchill seems to think we could possibly get a good prospect from either the Yanks or Brewers for Washburn.
He mentioned Gamel, Lawrie, McAllister, and Jackson.
Basing whether to make a trade or not on which day it is doesn’t make much sense.
If the Brignac rumors are true, then the Washburn trade probably has little to do with Hardy.
The guy in all of this that I find interesting is Mat Gamel. He’s all but proven that he isn’t a 3B, the Brewers’ OF is fairly full, and Prince has pretty well established himself as a premier hitter. Not saying that Washburn could get you Gamel, I just don’t really see him being an untradeable commodity.
I like Jason, but there’s a better chance that we trade Miguel Batista for Albert Pujols than there is that the Brewers give up Gamel for Washburn.
So Washburn is a short term rent-a-pitcher who is currently overperforming. And the M’s are anorexically thin at SS.
If there is a deal made with Milwaukee that is structured something along the lines of Washburn for Hardy (with some other parts thrown in maybe), is Hardy better than Cedeno? If so, pull the trigger on the trade.
It’s still a lot more fun with Z in the front office running things than BB.
BTW: Is there any interest from the mariners for Snell? I know he has a contract, and some heady issues, but he could turn it around.
FWIW, scouts at the Rainiers games seem most interested in a few of our pitchers (Morrow, Baldwin, Delgado), and Carp and Clement.
What sort of “bluff” do you think there is to be done, here?
I’m not even sure how someone who spends an inordinate time pondering prospects could even suggest Washburn for Gamel has legs.
That said, if the Brewers could make Jason Kendall their starting catcher, they’d probably be willing to let Clement catch too….
Obviously we are not going to get a top propect like Escobar for Wash unless MAYBE, just MAYBE we unload our farm system. Escobar was the 8th best prospect in baseball at the beginning of the year accoriding to MLB.com.
We need to sell and we will get something in turn, and I don’t understand why you would wait tell the deadline. Like Dave said there is an injury risk….Move him while he is still hot.
I think any scout interested in Andy Baldwin should be looking for another profession.
Hold until the 31st. If the rumors are true, and they want Washburn for Tuesday’s start. Then set a price. If they don’t match, make them wait, and see if someone else will top it.
First, think of Gamel as essentially LaPorta from last year – it took CC Sabathia to get him. And at that time the Brewers had Gamel in their back-pocket.
Second, Gamel plays a position of need for the Brewers (though he does not play it well) and is also a left-handed bat.
It took arguably the best pitcher in the league (and again, a type A FA) to get LaPorta at a time when the Brewers had no use for another outfielder and RH bat. There really is no way Washburn’s gonna get you Gamel.
I gotta say that I am sooo “gun-shy” about bringing in National League “saviours” to our team.
Hardy can hit 7th or 9th in the lineup tomorrow and in 2010 and fill a GLARING hole at SS.
If they get him, as long as the Mariners wouldn’t give up too much (i.e. Washburn and “stuff” for Hardy and “stuff”), I would give that choice a nice round of applause.
Washburn MAY even give a wink or a nod going out the door that he’d come back next year at a discounted price barring a absolutely ridiculous and fat offer in free agency.
Here’s my question though, because I don’t live in Milwaukee and don’t follow the Brewers that much.
Why have Hardy’s numbers gone down this year from .283/.343/.478 in 2008 to .227/.295/.373 in 2009 after improving his batting average, OBP and slugging every year since 2006?
Is it just that the man needs a change of scenery or is it something else?
Because if he put up his 2007 or 2008 numbers, I’d gladly have him here tomorrow and in 2010 playing shortstop and hitting 7th, 8th or 9th for us in our batting order.
Then set a price. If they don’t match, make them wait, and see if someone else will top it.
Risking the possibility of injury to get 5% more in return is stupid.
The only reason to not be happy with Hardy as the Ms shortstop in 2010 is because one thinks the Ms could’ve gotten a better, perhaps longer term solution with their resources.
I’m having trouble seeing it.
Wilson is likely a cheaper 2010 answer to acquire so maybe Wilson plus some other player is a little better than Hardy.
Maybe Brignac is a possibility but he’s not going to come cheap.
Hardy in 2010 is probably the best “realisitc” option the Ms have for making a significant move at short. Even then, Hardy would require some fancy footwork by Z.
Agreed Dave….Why risk the injury? You also have to recognize he is what 35? 35 year old bodies are not the same as 25 year bodies, unless your Jamie Moyer. Chance of getting injured are fairly high with his age.
Why wouldn’t we get a top prospect like Escobar? They gave up LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, etc. for 3 months of Sabathia. Minus off Brantley for the 2nd pick, even though it looks like Washburn could sneak into type A status since the pitchers above him are free falling a little bit, specifically the Twins starters. Either way, Milwaukee had ZERO idea what they were getting in Sabathia last year.
It’s easy to assess the trade off what Sabathia did for the Brewers, but let’s talk about what he was looking like at the time of the trade. 3.83 ERA C.C./2.71 ERA Wash, 6-8 W-L C.C./8-6 W-L Wash, 18 GS, 3 CG, 2 SHO, 122.1 IP C.C./19 GS, 1 CG, 1 SHO, 126 IP Wash.
Looks like Washburn is by far the better pitcher…
Washburn 156 ERA+
Sabathia 116 ERA+
and they are both 2 month rentals, so age has nothing to do with it. Before last season Sabathia posted a sub 4.00 ERA THREE TIMES. Washburn has done it FOUR TIMES. So don’t start with track record. And before 2007 Sabathia had never been used more that 200 IP except 1 year in 2002, when he pitched 210 IP. So don’t try to sell the workhorse theory because coming off a season where he pitched 43 innings more than he’d pitched in any season and 5 years removed from that 200+ IP season, nobody knew he would be such a workhorse.
Escobar by Baseball America is rated 19th in baseball. LaPorta 27th. Please tell me that a 1st round pick between #16 and #30 is worth more than Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, and the other kid they got. Because I have a hard time seeing the Brewers look at C.C. last summer and say, yup he’s going to cut his ERA more than in half when he gets here, so we’ll pony up LaPorta.
Washburn has a 2.02 ERA in 17 of his starts if you take out his last two against the Angels. In his other 17 starts he’s allowed a .568 OPS by opposing teams. I’d say he’s pretty much locked in, not to meantion that he was 1 hit away from a perfect game this season. The last time Jarrod pitched like this was a contract year, so expect to pay for and receive this production for the rest of the season.
Escobar for Washburn would be a low offer.
His age and resulting injury-risk aside, Washburn’s value has never been this high since he’s been a Mariner. I agree with the trade him now argument – don’t risk him getting hurt or even pitching an awful game Tuesday and seeing his stock plummet.
How about trading Washburn for Jason Donald. What would it take to pry Donald away from the Phillies??
Maybe Washburn with Clement( I don’t know anything about their farm symstem, but there MLB catchers aren’t much to write home about) and possibly a bullpen arm( their bullpen is falling apart with injuries).
I love making decisions based on ERA…
I think everyone misinterpreted the quotes… He said “Escobar and Gamel” are off limits… Maybe he just meant that you can’t have both. Or could it be that Jack Z has had a tentative agreement with Melvin that if the Mariners fall out of it, he’ll trade one of his stud lefties for Escobar and Melvin doesn’t want to trade all his top prospects. Maybe he wants to get Halladay or Lee for whatever they can trade not named Gamel or Escobar, and then trade just Escobar for Washburn to give them three ace quality pitchers in Washburn, Gallardo, and Lee (I say Lee because I think he’s a more realistic price). Maybe the Escobar for Washburn trade is in the works and he wants to get Lee for just Gamel and some middling prospects, so he acts like he won’t trade him. Ever had your girlfriend tell you no before you… well I don’t know about you, but it doesn’t make me want her less!
Listen, Washburn has shown great durability in his career, but the point is that his value will not change over the next five days – at least not enough to risk having him make another start.
As someone else noted, Escobar was removed from his AAA game tonight. Now to me that suggests he is on his way to Milwaukee, or on his way to seattle.
Also, if you visit the minor league baseball website, you may notice that a bunch of brewer minor leaguers no longer have a team listed after their name.
these players include:
escobar
lecroy (aa catcher)
swindle (aaa RP)
lawrie (r 2b)
Looks like Washburn is by far the better pitcher…
Read this.
Then read it again.
I think everyone misinterpreted the quotes
No, we didn’t. And seriously, you need to go read the linked article about 10 times, then completely overhaul how you evaluate pitchers.
[meet the mod queue]
One thing is for certain, whatever Z does, I will be happy with. I totally support him.
.256 .310 .444= 4.43 ERA
.274 .330 .420= 3.20 ERA
Washburn in 2003, and 2005.
Any chance a three-way trade would be easier for Jack Z if he is “channeling” Milwaukee?
Based on his next start, and the team’s drumming over the weekend, I can see Washburn being traded tomorrow. With so many other Ms pieces to offer, and the best GM in the league, a lot could change soon.
I’m not qualified to venture guess about who moves, but I have faith Jack Z will make us happy. Again this season enters a new stage. I love this team.
Escobar for Washburn would be a low offer.
Thank you for making my evening.
It doesn’t do any good to evaluate a pitcher STRICTLY on ERA.
Dave may disagree with me on this a little bit, but when you think about starting pitchers, or any pitcher for that matter, you are who you are based on your pitches.
If your a big pitcher like C.C. is and you cater to the high strikeout rate, then you better have the pitches and the ability to mix your pitches enough to strikeout 10 batters a game.
Whereas, if you are a pitcher like Washburn who pitches to contact with an average fastball and solid off speed stuff, you better be able to change speeds well and be backed up with a great defense while preferably pitching in a pitcher friendly park.
At the end of the day, the best pitchers aren’t necessarily those who throw 98 MPH or have the lowest ERA, the best pitchers are those who know what pitches they can throw and can throw them effectively for outs.
There also are cases such as Washburn’s where they need some outside factors (i.e. outfield defense) to be favorable for them to be at their best and feel comfortable.
But at the end of the day, the best pitchers simply just know how to get batters out based on their abilities.
Hence why Jamie Moyer may pitch until he’s 50 (or close to it) while Brandon Morrow may prove to be a draft day bust.
That’s all.
I wouldn’t bother responding to “keger25″. He’s currently whining about censorship in the mod queue, and with his level of intelligence and decorum, it’s unlikely he’ll ever get out of there.
That’s funny
Very funny
Oh, well I didn’t know that. . .
So since time is ticking away on Wlad’s 10-days-to-trade clock, does he figure into this anywhere? Does packaging him with Washburn put Z in a better position?
So what if we refused to trade with Milwakuee unless we get Hardy, but are willing to give up the piece for him, what are we talking here
Wash/Wlad/Clement/Lowe for Hardy/Charlie?
would that work for both teams? are we giving too much value? too little?
Man, there’s something in the water the past few days.
I’m sorry Dave, I approved his first comment.
Not surprising about “keger25″. As for pitchers: I believe if you don’t miss bats, you won’t win games. With few exceptions of course. I just don’t believe there is such a thing as “pitching to contact”.(and I am not talking about limiting the number of pitches they throw by trying to induce outs early in the count.)
So since time is ticking away on Wlad’s 10-days-to-trade clock, does he figure into this anywhere? Does packaging him with Washburn put Z in a better position?
I can’t imagine it would strengthen Zduriencik’s position that much. Wlad is cheap, and young enough for someone to be interested in taking a flyer on him. But I can’t imagine he’s going to net you anything significant, on top of what Washburn would get you.
“San Diego would expect you to back up the truck if you want him,” said one talent evaluator. “They would be looking for the kind of haul that the Mariners gave up for [Erik] Bedard.”
This is the last sentence from Olney’s current ESPN blurb about the Red Sox pondering a trade for Adrian Gonzalez. ‘The Bedard trade’ was also specifically referred to a day or two ago by several MSM analysts as what the Jays want from the Phils for Halladay.
“The Bedard trade” is becoming quite the catch-phrase…
There’s such a thing as “pitching to contact”, but you’re right, missing bats is the most reliable way to have success. If you’re going to “pitch to contact” you better have a really good GB/FB ratio and a good defense behind you.
Wlad will probably be shipped elsewhere. Braun and Cameron aren’t going anywhere and Corey Hart is a better option than him. Maaaaaaaybe as a throw-in for depth.
I just don’t believe there is such a thing as “pitching to contactâ€.(and I am not talking about limiting the number of pitches they throw by trying to induce outs early in the count.)
Wouldn’t the exception be extreme groundballers?
By the way, I apologize for using italics, bold, and blockquotes to quote other posters. I don’t comment here often, so I keep screwing it up.
Yes, but in that case, it would be a mediocre pitcher being helped by his surroundings.
Along with a good infield defense.
So then what does everybody think of Taylor Green? He seems like he has a solid enough bat for third. Don’t know a thing about his d. Anybody feel like filling me in? Is he more Adrian Beltre or Michael Young (how does he suck so much at third? He was a shortstop for christ’s sake!)?
This refers to the pitcher’s ability.
This refers to factors outside of the pitcher’s control.
Sabathia is a better pitcher than Washburn.
To be fair, he really sucked at shortstop too.
I think your post lends to posing an interesting question, Dave.
Count me as a guy who doesn’t really go with Geoff Baker’s thinking (75% of the time or more). But he did touch on one thing that did give me pause: The Brewers might well be reluctant to throw Escobar to the lions right in the middle of a pennant chase.
And I’ve seen other orgs blink and go ahead giving up a highly coveted piece before for something they needed for a division title and playoffs this year.
But, as a side question: is Doug Melvin the type to blink at all? My take on him has always been virtually word for word the way he recently described the Brewers current trading mindset: “Aggressive but not stupid”.
I know you say Villanueva and Green is more likely of a return. But if Zduriencik holds firm to any “I need to get a shortstop out of this” stance, is there any package we could put together- or any team we could involve in a three-way- that would pry Escobar from them, and to us?
Keep in mind I know at least two teams that could provide a better return for a talent like Escobar, but I ask: is it in the realm of possibility?
Just for wanton speculaton’s sake: Washburn/Morrow/Clement/Balentien for Escobar and Villanueva?
I don’t know how much I like the idea of obtaining JJ Hardy. I think he would be a very good fit for this team, however, having him under control for just one year is bothersome. I know you can’t always worry about that, but unless we can sign him to an extension, I don’t know if that’d be best for us. I don’t know how much of a contender we’ll be next year. I think realistically, we need to have pieces in place for 2011 and beyond. However, that said, I do know we desperately need to upgrade shortstop.
So, in Gammonsland, only Halladay is likely to move. The packages offered for Martinez & for Lee aren’t near good enough, and because the Mariners have a fabulous radio/tv contract, they won’t move Washburn, but will re-sign him.
Maybe they pulled Escobar from the game since they were down by 10 runs at the time.
“…and because the Mariners have a fabulous radio/tv contract, they won’t move Washburn, but will re-sign him.”
It’s late…I’m tired…but what does the radio/tv contract have to do with moving anyone?
It is worth the slight risk of injury to start Washburn again, because there are a significant number of deals that get done on the last couple days, July 30 and 31. GM’s who need someone and haven’t gotten a guy raise their offers. Granted, selling GM’s also lower their sites, but it is a bit of a game of chicken – hold out as long as you can, and you might get a bigger haul.
sorry for my semi-retarded post earlier on players having no teams listed on milb.com.
i suppose if the brewers trade hardy to seattle then escobar will be called up and thus has no team listed.
Someone (unknown) would be called up from AA to fill in for escobar, and lawrie would be called up from low minors to AA.
the only ones that don’t warrant a call-up who have no teams listed are lucroy (c), and swindle (rp).
so I’m guessing Hardy/Swindle/lucroy for Washburn/wlad/morrow
I usually like trade deadline suspense, but I am so ready for the obvious guy (Washburn) to be moved, and the matter closed. Hopefully it will be tommorow and not the end of the week.
I don’t see why people are so high on Jason Donald. I won’t pretend to know much about him, but looking strictly at numbers (.287 wOBA and 6.4 BB%), I don’t see what the hype is. Is he just having a bad year or is really not very good?
Given the way things have broken for the M’s, Washburn won’t start to protect “trade value,” and he’ll then be run over by the Moose going rogue on his four-wheeler.
At least the Kazimir-to-Seattle rumors died a quiet death. I couldn’t tell if it was genuine insanity or a blogger’s wishful thinking. Either way, picking up another Bedard-type injury case would suck.
School has been out for a while, and the kids have grown tired of facetwittering. “Keger25″ though? Is he 25 years old and still waking up on frat-house lawns? Or are there 24 more of them out there somewhere, like some kind of zombie clone beer pong army?
What’s your hurry? What else do we have to look forward to? Just some games against a team plummeting faster (and longer) in the East than the M’s have been in the West.
I would love to see Washburn reunited with Raul in Philly. Let’s see, bandbox park, left fielder without range. Yep, I see that as a formula for success.
i just hope we trade everyone we can in all honesty, Bedard(i don’t think his injury is season ending, we could get something, just not much), Wash, Wlad, Lowe, Cocoran(if we can get a box of bats or better), Beltre(if we are giving up after giving up 173 runs to Cleveland in 3 games) Clement, Lahair, Halman…..
Just keep Morrow unless someone offers something worth going for, still believe the guy can start.
Or Washburn in the new Yankee stadium, that’d be swell too.
For examples of this, compare (ex-M) Joel Pineiro and (current M) Chris Jakubauskas this year. They’re both pitching to contact (near the top in that category on Fangraphs’ leaderboards — sort by contact descending) and have near-identical K rates (3.89 for Jak, 3.79 for Joel) but Jakubauskas has a pedestrian 1.07 GB/FB rate, whereas Pinero apparently has re-invented himself as an extreme groundballer and now sports an insane 2.65 GB/FB rate (highest among starters in all of baseball). Jakubauskas has a better defense playing behind him, but as we’ve seen it often doesn’t matter because a lot of his pitches (42%) become fly balls, and an unfortunate percentage (9%) of those flyballs become home runs, resulting in a 1.22 HR/9 rate. Pinereo gives up hardly any flyballs ( 23%) and hardly any of those leave the yard (3%), leaving him with a minuscule .21 HR/9 rate (just 3 home runs in 128 innings pitched). Pinero in his current form is an effective “pitch to contact” pitcher; Jakubauskas in his current form is not.
Well, it is the recent-memory high-water mark in overpaying for a arm. Every GM trying to trade for a pitcher is going to be hearing that (at least until some other GM out-Bavasis Bavasi).
Have a look at his BABIP — either he was lucky last year and unlucky this year, or he figured something out and then forgot it. Either way, I’d expect his line from ‘06-’07 to be more like what to expect going forward. One worrisome thing is the drop in his slugging despite an increase in flyball rates: for some reason a lot more of his flyballs are finding gloves instead of seats (his line drive rate dropped, but not by that much). That could be a fluke — playing in more pitchers’ parks in the first half, say — or he could be just getting under the ball more (though his infield fly rate has dropped too, which seems to contradict that hypothesis). There are of course other reasons for a sudden drop in power (beyond injury) by I’m not going to Go There.
Why doesn’t it make sense for Milwaukee to trade Escobar for Washburn and some other help this year? Milwaukee is a small market club, paying $13.5 million to Gallardo, Fielder, Braun and Hardy. To me, that’s a club that is either going to have to figure out ways to get a lot more revenue in the next two years (perhaps by making the playoffs this year or next?), or they are going to lose some of those guys to free agency.
Why shouldn’t Milwaukee go for it now? And if they have to trade prospects for rental players, why not now? The Mariners had a window from 2000-03. They didn’t make any blockbuster trades with prospects. How many World Series did they play in back then? How many times have they been legitimately competitive since? Milwaukee oughta strike while they’ve got a chance, in my book.
Maybe Milwaukee should hope for more in return for Escobar. But I have trouble believing that a small-market franchise should be so stubborn to not make him available for the right price, including a deal involving Washburn and other players that could help Milwaukee now or in the future.
Because if Milwaukee is starting AAA guys for the final two months, they will waste one of their years away.
No, but you can’t trade someone on the DL and he’s not going to be off of it until after the trade deadline. Of course you can still trade someone after the trade deadline but they have to pass through waivers… and Bedard is not going to pass through waivers.
Or they let those guys go to free agency, pick up the draft picks, and replace them internally… replacing Hardy with, oh, say Escobar. What happens if they trade away all their prospects and then don’t find all that playoff revenue? Hey, look, they’re the Royals. (If they’re lucky and smart, they’ll be like the A’s: trade away prospects to grab a big bat, and then when things don’t work out flip him for essentially the same pieces you started with. But Washburn isn’t Holliday, and probably won’t retain his value.)
There’s a time to go for it, and there’s a time to build up your war chest — like Tampa has done. There’s an example of a small market team that didn’t piss away its prospects.
And do what? Have to decide in two years whether to win 85 games again, or trade the next Escobar and Gamel to come up through their system for immediate help? It seems they’ll be in the same spot.
Escobar and Gamel are prospects. They have value. These two have significant value. But they’re replaceable to a smart club! The Marlins had three prospects in Baseball America’s Top 18 at the beginning of the season (above Escobar at 19).
I guess it comes down to whether the Brewers believe that they can be continuously competitive despite their small revenue, or whether they believe they have limited windows within which to compete. I favor the second view. And it’s possible (and wouldn’t be stupid if) the Brewers do, also. And if they do, Escobar is available for the right price.
I’m confused as to what the Twins pitchers performance would have to do with the free agent status of a pitcher in the NL (i.e. after the trade) since he would be judged against the performances of other SP in the league he is in at the end of the season.
Sure, when a GM says ‘XXX is unavailable’ he really means something along the lines of ‘You’re going to have to pay A LOT for XXX’.
Washburn simply isn’t A LOT. He’s a useful piece, a durable roughly league average pitcher. Two months of that just isn’t getting a huge haul (unless Minaya, Bowden, Bavasi or Jocketty are involved somehow).
If I was in trade talks with a team that may not be going as quickly as hoped and there were other teams interested in the same assets that I’d be giving up to team A, i’d pull a minor leaguer out of a game if it could be interpretted by team A as meaning perhaps another team is closer to the goal….
Could Brignac play second or could Escobar play second if they can lets also trade Jose Lopez along with Morrow and Clement, Washburn. We can have Escobar and Brignac as our new double play combo.
But, as a side question: is Doug Melvin the type to blink at all? My take on him has always been virtually word for word the way he recently described the Brewers current trading mindset: “Aggressive but not stupidâ€.
Sorry to get in late on this great thread; was out of the loop all day yesterday.
Another fundamental question is just how good a chance Melvin thinks the Brewers realistically have compared to where they were last year, and the impact of pitchers like Washburn vs. Sabathia (I think we’ve established at this point that Sabathia’s the better pitcher).
Last year on July 7 (the day of the trade for Sabathia): Milwaukee was 49-40 and 4 GB in the Central, but 4 GB a Cubs team that was playing exactly as well as everyone expected (.596 ball). Further, the Brewers were only 1/2 GB the Cardinals (who had played far beyond expectations to that point) for the wild card. They had every reason to believe that Sabathia was the type of win-every-five-days shut-down guy who could not only help them in the regular season, but possibly beyond.
This year on July 27: The Brewers are only 3 GB the Cubs, but it’s twenty days later in the season and the Cubs are finally healthy and recently playing to expected form. The Brewers, meanwhile, are treading water (6-10 over the last three weeks, from +7 run differential to -15): to catch the Cubs, they have to climb over two other teams (not impossible, but arguably more difficult) in the Central, and in the Wild Card, it’s even bleaker, at least superficially: in seventh place, 5 GB.
In other words, Milwaukee gave up a good prospect in LaPorta, but one they had no immediate place for on the big league club to land a stud horse they might be able to ride — realistically — to a playoff spot and deep into October (the Phillies, of course, had other ideas). Trading Escobar or Gamel for Washburn (other pieces aside) would represent them giving up top prospects who do have an immediate future with the club for a guy who, while having a nice year, is not that stud horse, all to salvage a season in which the club is significantly less likely to make the playoffs than they were last year…
It won’t happen. If you get Hardy, you pull the trigger.
Escobar and Gamel are prospects. They have value. These two have significant value. But they’re replaceable to a smart club! The Marlins had three prospects in Baseball America’s Top 18 at the beginning of the season (above Escobar at 19).
I’m sorry, but this is lunacy. I guess this is wishful thinking that some day we’ll fleece another team the way the Orioles fleeced us, but how much better off would we be if we had Jones, Sherrill, and soon-to-be-MLB-stud Chris Tillman back? With whom are we “replacing” those guys from our own system? I realize that the M’s have not been until recently the “smart team” you were probably envisioning as you wrote this, but “smart teams” also realize they had better hold on to top prospects if they have no hope of holding on to some of the present core once those players become eligible for free agency. Smart teams will be especially leery of doing this if they’re trading them away to make a run at a playoff spot that looks increasingly out of reach (see my previous post). You’re essentially advocating that the Brewers make the same type of trade we have bemoaned for two years, except for a 35-year-old pitcher with less upside and less time with his new club than Bedard. Unless the Brewers replaced Melvin with Bavasi over the weekend, again, I just don’t see this happening.
Would it be a big deal if Bedard didn’t clear waivers? The team that picked him up would have to take his salary, and at this rate he won’t even be Tybe B. Let someone else pay him to be on the DL, if they want. Besides, when he’s claimed off waivers, the team still can make a deal or pull him back. I don’t think there is any reason we can’t deal him after the deadline (not that we’d get a lot back). It’s not like we want to offer that glass arm an extension.
I sense a fierce day of rosterbation ahead, mates.
I trust Zduriencik will maximize the return on Washburn. Playoff hopes are waning at this point, but Zduriencik isn’t going to just give him away.
That said, when teams aren’t giving up top prospects for Roy Halladay, I’m confused when I see people writing paragraphs about why the Brewers should give up top prospects for Washburn.
A year ago, we were just hoping someone else would write his checks when claiming him on waivers. So, be thrilled if we get any kind of interesting piece back for him now.
Just what Ravech asked! Gammon thinks that with that contract, the M’s won’t want to look like they are giving up to their fans.
Carson, I completely agree with your take on Zduriencik maximizing Washburn. Just because past [MARINERS] GMs have traded away good young players for average major league vets doesn’t mean that other teams will do so.
because the Mariners have a fabulous radio/tv contract, they won’t move Washburn, but will re-sign him
The current local broadcasting contracts aren’t quite as fabulous for the team as they used to be.
Could Brignac play second or could Escobar play second if they can lets also trade Jose Lopez along with Morrow and Clement, Washburn. We can have Escobar and Brignac as our new double play combo.
Oh, and we could throw in some magic beans too!
Brignac is the Rays’ #4 prospect in a stacked system. As recently as 2008, he ranked #39 in MLB. Escobar is the Brewers’ #1 prospect and SS of the future.
You could split Seattle’s 25-man roster in half, take out Felix, Saunders, Gutierrez, and Ichiro, and offer 10 guys to the Brewers and 11 guys to Tampa Bay and not land either of these prospects.
I don’t see why so many of you wouldn’t be happy with JJ Hardy for Washburn. This would be an outstanding deal for Seattle. He’s always had above average defense and offense. He’s suffering from a low BABIP this year and has slightly below average offensive production, but is still an outstanding defensive SS. He would stabilize the SS position for the remainder of this year and next. This would free the front office to focus on other areas of need in order to continue to compete. I think this trade would even help them in 2009.
And all of this for a league average starter who is playing over his head this year. Don’t get me wrong, Washburn has shown tremendous improvement – heck, he could be the next Jamie Moyer. But he benefits from the Mariners’ OF defense and Safeco Field, will be gone at the end of the year, and has never been a front line starter.
He is no Sabathia, no Halladay, and not even a Cliff Lee. An above average major league shortstop would be an excellent return.
But “Team X should trade us their all-stars in return for our garbage” has been a staple of Loud Guys on Barstools for, like, ever. It’s a tradition.
And it doesn’t help when the radio talking-heads just read the trade-rumors from various papers without investigating/mentioning how likely or unlikely said trade might be…
Baker puts in his 2 cents on Escobar & Hardy
Thanks for the link, msb. I can’t see us throwing Morrow into a deal at all; am I crazy? What’s our rotation next year? Felix, RRS, and what? Batista? (*shudder*) Silva? (*gagging noises*)
Don’t we have to pencil Morrow in as something like number 3/4/5 starter next year?
In Geoff’s defense, Someone like Morrow is much more replaceable then someone like Escobar.
What is Morrow’s anticipated level of performance next year? It certainly couldn’t realistically be a higher ceiling then say a 3rd or 4th pitcher. 3-4 spot righties aren’t as difficult or expensive to acquire as young quality short-stops.
That said, In the highly unlikely chance Escobar is a Mariner next week I will be happily eating a huge serving of crow.
So today we’ve seen Wash tied in with trade rumors to The Brewers, Yankees and Phillies.
Something tells me this isn’t going to get done before Washburn’s next start.
What should the club do? Let him pitch and risk injury or a bad performance? Or, bench him until he’s traded?
cysco
Can’t we just bring back yuni? I’m sure they;d take washburn for him…
j/k
Well, I’m not expecting to get the equivalent of Jones, Sherrill and Tillman. But if it was just Jones for Bedard, we just drafted Dustin Ackley. And don’t forget Franklin Gutierrez.
If we’re talking about the Brewers trading for Washburn, they’re obviously gunning for this season. Their deal for Felipe Lopez indicates that. Last year’s Sabathia trade indicates that’s their strategy. Prince Fielder’s skyrocketing contract after 2010 — along with the increases Gallardo, Hardy and Braun will be due in coming years — indicates a reason for urgency in Milwaukee.
I’m not saying they would trade Escobar-for-Washburn and Morrow and/or whoever else. But there would be a rationale for them to make that deal. So I wouldn’t rule it out like others have. If they are targeting this 4 or 5 year period (beginning in 2007), maybe Escobar doesn’t surpass Hardy until after they’ve lost Fielder to an $18 million contract from the Cubs. And if they’re making this deal for this year, then certainly Escobar can’t be counted on to improve over Hardy. And Hardy doesn’t make sense for the Mariners.
Maybe I’m just being hopeful.
At the time of the Bedard trade, Dave said “I wouldn’t trade Jones for Bedard, straight up.” I think time has proven him right. Great prospects and prime defensive positions are really rare and worth a lot. The way to overcome ugly escalating contracts is to replace them with cheap, good guys you’ve developed. Yes, you can do the “boom and bust” model where you try to win it all and then clear the decks and start over, or you can keep trading away players as they get old and expensive and replacing them with cost-controlled guys from below. They already tried to go all the way with the Sabathia contract last year; I don’t know how many more of those they have in them. And, as others have said, given that precedent there’s no way they trade away a better prospect to get a lesser pitcher.
Dave was right. But, we traded our CF of the future, and a year and a half later, we have two new CFs of the future (Gutierrez and Ackley). Did it set us back a few years? Of course! But it’s not like the M’s turned into the Royals. One of the problems with that trade was the Bedard trade showed the division between the best course for the club (building with youth) and the best course for the GM (win now or be fired).
And that’s all I’m saying, that they have two strategies from which to pick. I saw a lot of “they won’t” in this thread. I’m only saying they might. Because I really wish the M’s had gone with the first option at the beginning of this decade when they had their window.
And I’d still rather have the 1990-1999 Braves than the ‘97-’03 Marlins, despite the difference in WS rings.
Is Devaris Gordon either untouchable (from the Dodgers’ point of view) or undesirable (from the M’s point of view) for Washburn and other pieces?
All the trade talk between Milwaukee and Seattle is very intriguing to me, because, as a transplant, I’m a relatively new Mariners fan and I’ve been a Brewers fan since I became a baseball fan. Because of that, if a deal is done, I want one of the rare deals that’s good for both teams. I hope admitting divided loyalties doesn’t bar me from this website.
For all Washburn discussion, though, I’m left with one major question. I suspect my low level of understanding of statistical analysis is causing some major holes in my logic. I would just like for someone with more knowledge to explain what those holes are.
I agree with what seems to be the common understanding on this website, which is that Washburn is currently an overvalued asset, and most of his improvement is because of the Mariners’ improved defense.
If the Brewers’ pitchers after Gallardo weren’t terrible, I would hate the idea of Washburn joining the staff. However, he may be a comparative improvement, even in a less pitcher friendly ballpark with less pitcher friendly outfield. As it is, I’m skeptical, and the Brewer fan part of me really does not like Washburn.
However, the Mariner fan in me is actually coming around to valuing Washburn. That said, if I were only a Mariner fan, I would love a straight up trade for Hardy. However, I’m wondering why when Washburn’s value to the Mariners is discussed, it seems his value is always discussed in absolute terms, whereas, I would think–admittedly, probably incorrectly–that his value would be better measured relative to the circumstances in which he pitches. It seems that because the Mariners have defense that complements his pitching style and has allowed him to look like a really good pitcher, continuing the pairing of Washburn + great outfield defense would allow him to continue to be, at worst, a better than average pitcher for the Mariners. Perhaps I tend to over-value that because other pitchers have not yet been able to equally take advantage of the defense (I’m sure a great shortstop would help) or maybe I’m not sufficiently accounting for luck. Why isn’t Washburn more valuable to the Mariners (and therefore the Mariners to Washburn) than he would be to other teams? Thanks for any feedback.
I just read Baker’s post and i think he makes a valid case, what would it take to land Escobar? Wash/Morrow/Clement? Fields? do we even have a prospect that could compare to the level Escobar is?
I would be very okay with Washburn and Clement for Hardy. In fact, I would be ecstatic.