Projecting The New 2010 Roster
After today’s move, the M’s plan for the next year’s team, and how they’ll continue making upgrades this winter, comes into a bit clearer view. Here’s the general overview of what the team has in house for next year as of now.
Catcher: Rob Johnson, Kenji Johjima, Adam Moore
First Base: Mike Carp, Chris Shelton
Second Base: Jose Lopez
Shortstop: Jack Wilson
Third Base: Matt Tuiasosopo, Jack Hannahan
Left Field: Michael Saunders, Ryan Langerhans
Center Field: Franklin Gutierrez
Right Field: Ichiro Suzuki
Designated Hitter: Brad Nelson
Johjima’s probably going away (either back to Japan or traded, with the team basically assuming the rest of his salary), so you can mentally cross him off the list. The middle infield is probably set, while you’d expect that the team will displace one of the kids at the corners with a veteran. I’d expect Branyan back next year, so Carp/Shelton would share DH and Nelson would keep hanging out in Tacoma. Whether the the M’s will hand third over to Tui and Hannahan probably depends on how much Beltre gets offered as a free agent.
Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow, Jason Vargas, Carlos Silva, Garrett Olson, Nick Hill
Bullpen: David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Sean White, Chris Jakubauskas, Robert Manuel, Josh Fields, Phillippe Aumont, losers of the rotation competition.
The rotation got a necessary arm for next year today in Snell, who could give the team the mid-rotation starter they were lacking before today’s trade. The flyball lefties, Morrow, and Silva could fight to fill out the back of the rotation, while Hill could force his way into the discussion if he has a strong spring.
All told, the M’s currently have about $55 million in committed multi-year contract salaries for 2010, while the arbitration eligible gang (Felix, Gutierrez, Aardsma, Lowe) should command about $15 million between them, and the league minimum guys on the roster would push the total payroll to about $78 million. If the organization maintains a payroll of around $95 million for 2010, then Jack would have about $17 million to spend this winter – and that’s before he brings back any of the Beltre/Branyan/Bedard/Washburn gang.
With that kind of money available, the team probably can only afford to offer arbitration to one of Beltre/Bedard (bet on Beltre in that case), and bringing back either would limit the amount of money they could offer Branyan to ~$6 or $7 million for 2010.
Or, to put this another way, take the above roster, put Beltre and Branyan back on it in place of Nelson/Tui, and you’re probably maxed out in payroll.
This is the downside of today’s trade. The M’s picked up a shortstop and a starting pitcher, but it cost them $12.5 million out of the 2010 payroll. They chopped up about 30% of their estimated winter budget in today’s deal. That’s a bit of a blow, and means that the team won’t be able to retain all the guys on the current roster that it might want to.
It’s nice to have a league average shortstop and a starter with upside. The team needed both. I just hope that everyone realizes that part of the cost of acquiring these two is that we’re now significantly less likely to upgrade 3B/1B/DH/SP this winter, at least through free agency. We know Jack’s good at finding undervalued talent in trade, which is good, because he’s going to have to do it again this winter.
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Its a solid point, Dave. And just because the team is getting rid of bad contracts doesnt make taking back bad contracts ok.
The one thing id say is, there just isnt a whole lot the M’s could do in FA that woulda made me happy, because the class is really not good. You would have to over pay for Bay or Holliday to really make it worth while, I’d much rather see the team imrpoved through trades (I’d like to see that anyway, FA is a bad way to improve a team) and I trust that our GM will make the right decisions, albeit on a limited financial budget.
Endy?
Without the sentimental factor I have to think having Branyan/Carp/Nelson at DH is an upgrade over Griffey/Sweeney. That’s why I like today’s trade SS was a position we had no candidates to fill in house, while 1b/DH/3b/SP we do. Plus I’m hoping to see Adam Moore and not Rob Johnson at catcher.
The twelve million going to Silva would be nice to have back. Also, I see another reduction in payroll coming this winter in order to free up dollars for Felix. And this almost has to mean Wash will only be a Mariner next year if he is willing to accept five to six mil a year.
I’d like to see the M’s try Lopez at 2B if they do not resign Beltre and hopefully find a top notch (the next Dustin P) for 2B with possible trade this week. Lopez is too big and slow for 2B but I think his bat will keep improving. Question is, does he have enough arm for 3B. I have spoken to people that have asked Zman if Lopez is considered for 3rd and supposedly he said yes.
(sorry, try lopez at 3rd base)
3B: Wait and see what happens with Beltre. I’m not counting on him being here, but you never know with the way the economy is. Teams pay big money for power numbers more so than defense. Although I’d pay Beltre $5-$8 mil. a year to stick around. You never know.
1B: Mike Carp, done.
DH: Re-sign Russell Branyan for a reasonable price or do a Griffey (or Lahair/Langerhans)/Shelton platoon for 2010 because there’s no reason to rush a player (Nelson) up here if he needs a little more time to master AAA pitching than just the end of this season.
Brad’s OBP right now is .347, which is decent, but it’d be nice to see it higher before you put him into an everyday situation in the American League. Michael Saunders was able to get his up to .378 for instance before he left for MLB.
SP: THIS is where it gets tricky for us in 2010, because we definitely need a legitimate #2 starter next year if we want to have a more significant chance of winning the A.L. West.
But aside from that, you at least have an ace in Felix Hernandez, and a decent bottom of the rotation in Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell and Brandon Morrow to start the year (this, of course, is assuming that Washburn won’t sign with us for less money).
At the very least, I would have to believe if there is the belief in the front office that this team has a chance to make a playoff run in 2010, ownership would expand payroll by $5-$10 million (so in other words, enough for 1 or two more solid MLB players).
Plus, there are a couple trade chips (Morrow, White/Lowe/Kelley/Manuel/Fields) this team will have to play with if there are deals to be made.
So I’m not too worried, he’s going to have to get creative with the starting rotation and we’ll also have to cross our fingers about Beltre (and probably Branyan, too).
But other than that, it’s tough not to like who we are and what we’re becoming for 2010 and beyond, even after this trade that MAY prove to be nothing more than a wash rather than a fleecing.
*Note: Lopez would also become expendable if Beltre re-signs since Wilson is our SS (for now) and Lopez has struggled at 2B defensively in recent years.
Plus, his OBP has never been absurdly high.
I’m sorry, but the fact that people here (and on other forums) are even considering bringing Griffey back in 2010 is a bit laughable.
This afternoon, after the two trades, I felt like that was only the first wave and that would see a deal with Washburn and pieces go down. Now, though I’m not so sure. What are the chances we see another deal mix things up in the next 48 hours?
Bringing Griffey back to Seattle in 2010 (for other than sentimental reasons) would require that:
1. He actually wants to play again.
2. Branyan doesn’t re-sign.
3. The Mariners don’t want a Langerhans/Shelton platoon at DH until Nelson is ready for a promotion.
4. The Mariners don’t want a Lahair/Shelton platoon at DH until Nelson is ready for a promotion.
These four things would have to happen FIRST before there’s ANY talk of Griffey coming back in 2010.
I thought it’s been projected he’s out through 2010 or at least most of the season.
Yeah Dr. Z is far from done. Hopefully Batista will be gone and anyone else if for the right price(Wash,Branyan,Lowe, White, etc.)
Endy is supposed to be out until around June next year depending on how his knee progresses thanks to the Yunibomber.
Worth the read…about Wilson:
His agent attempted to re-initiate extension talks with the Pirates AFTER the M’s and Pirates agreed to the trade.
And Wilson is open to returning to the Pirates at the end of the season (if M’s don’t pick up his option year). The man loves Pitt.
[Use the link button!]
This is definitely one of the things that I was curious about.
It makes me wonder what Jack Zduriencik plans to do over the offseason. Upwards $40-$45 Million comes off the books next year but as noted in Dave’s post a nice chunk of that goes away pretty quickly when factoring in arbitration and now adding the contracts of Jack Wilson and Ian Snell.
Guess it’s going to come down to how many of the potential free agents Zduriencik is planning on trying to bring back as well as what, if any, free agents we go after to upgrade the team.
Should be interesting. Can’t wait.
It doesn’t require anything. There is no reason for him to be on the roster after 2009. You can find a lot of guys to fill his role that aren’t 40 for around league minimum – there are better options in AAA right now. The fairy tale is over after this year, and Junior can get on with retirement.
If Joh goes back to Japan that frees up a fair amount more, correct?
I can’t imagine Joh would leave for free and forfeit his contract, but crazier things have happened.
Given that we’re obviously buying at this point, why don’t we make a deal for Victor Martinez and rent him for 2010 (~$7 mil team option) to give Moore one more year to get his feet wet? Who knows, he may be a great trade chip at the deadline next year, clearing the way for Moore in the second half. The Indians are clearing payroll, and he can no longer be packaged with Lee. Catcher is a place we could upgrade significantly, and Martinez’ bat would be a huge boost over the existing backstops. He’s owed about $2.1 million for the rest of 2009. I wonder what it would take to get him? The price may be too steep, but the contract is short and manageable and if you’re going to deal for a $8.5 million SS I would say you think you have a shot to win next year.
God it hurts to realize that Carlos Silva takes up an eighth of our budget.
I understand that it limits what we’re going to be able to do next season in regards to free agency, but who exactly were the Mariners going to sign that would require big money?
There certainly aren’t any shortstops I want anything to do with available, and the 1B/3B/DH options aren’t too inspiring either. It’s possible that I’m not looking at a complete enough list for free agency.
Jack Z seems to be happy to try and find his pitchers through other methods, his OF and 2B are set before the trade. He fills the biggest hole on the team, and USSM has always preached being able to find inexpensive options at 1B/DH.
I would have loved to have had Reid Brignac, and I know a lot of people here wanted JJ Hardy, but he should probably be making even more money than Wilson next year, and it appears no one has any problems with Snell’s $4 million.
Since Zduriencik seems to put great weight on defense, I’d find it unlikely that he’d choose Victor Martinez. When we play the Indians, as soon as someone gets on base, I start yelling at the screen, STEAL!!
I wouldn’t call our current options great defenders.
My bad, wrong quote:
Well, Enchantment, I’d say that’s why we’re looking for a new catcher, right? You made a suggestion, I suggested the reason it would be unlikely.
That lineup looks pretty sweet actually-
Ichiro
Branyan
Beltre
Lopez
Gutz
Shelton
Moore
Wilson
Saunders
If we could get it, of course.
Aumont in the bullpen. Ghagh.
Yeah, but switch Gutierrez and Branyan so we don’t have two lefties in a row and because I like Gutierrez in the two hole.
Well hold on, that’s not how the line up should go:
L Ichiro
R Gutz
L Branyan
R Beltre
L Saunders
R Lopez
L Carp
R Moore
R Wilson
Obviouisly, the development of Saunders, Carp, and Moore will be a huge factor, but it seems like that team would score some runs. Even if you put Tui in Beltre’s place it shouldn’t be a total bust.
L Ichiro
R Gutz
L Branyan
R Lopez
L Saunders
R Tui
L Carp
R Moore
R Wilson
I don’t love Lopez in the clean up spot. Hopefully one of our young guns will make big enough strides to supplant him. Still, I feel like that wouldn’t be so bad.
True, and I completely agree with your assessment of his defense. Our preference (at times obsession-today) for defense is clear, but I’m just having a hard time seeing better options among the free agent class. If we truly believe Moore is ready, then get him out of AAA once the rosters expand and start him everyday (that may be the plan).
There aren’t really any other positions where we could get this kind of marginal offensive upgrade for that cost. Then again, the strategy may be to put a competitive team on the field, keep attendance high and buyout the remainder of these bad Bavasi contracts after 2010 and circle 2011/2012 as the years to go for it.
A lineup w/o Beltre next year looks absolutely terrible.
I was more guessing based on how Wak has situated the lineup this season, not really on how I think it should go.
Dave, you had mentioned on fangraphs that baseball as a whole is much better off than they projected last year. Is it possible that the team was overcautios with the payroll budget last winter and may be willing to let Zduriencik try to build a contender next year?
Also, I know they don’t ‘roll over’ salary room, but with Betancourt gone and Washburn most likely gone too, don’t they en up spending a good 5 million less this year than they expected? I am taking the reports that Pittsburgh is picking up all of Wilson’s 09 salary at face value.
Bringing Beltre back is priority #1 going into the offseason at this point. Tui is coming off an injury and Beltre’s just…well, Beltre.
Dave: Jack Wilson’s 2010 salary of $8.4M is a club option with a 600K buyout. Did the M’s pick that up as part of the trade? If not, can they just do the 600K buyout and try to re-sign him to a lower deal, say for 4.5M, or try to sign a SS FA for that amount?
The nice thing is we have a GM who knows all this. As with the trade that netted us Aaron Heilmann, he wasn’t done. I don’t think he’s done right now.
Jack didn’t trade for Wilson to flip him. If he were going to do that, he wouldn’t of given up Ronny Cedeno. You really think he’s going to roll Chris Woodward out there for the remainder of the season?
Any deal that Wilson would leave in would have to net a SS back, and I don’t really see a match out there in the current market.
I’d like to see us get a little cheaper in the payroll following Wash’s trade, anyway we can get Brignac for Washburn/Wilson in some three or four team deal? Would Brigac/Kazmir-Wilson give us more breathing room in the off season? It would consume more money but feel another SP role along with a cheaper more long term option at short.
Also how much moeny would we be saved if we dealt Batista/Washburn and didnt pick up any salary? Would that money be anymore help for this winter?
So we gave up Clement and 3 arms with medium upside for two months of a good defensive SS who can’t hit? I doubt it, and that would make this trade even worse. Add the fact that this FA SS class is underwhelming – Adam Everett and Marco Scutaro are about the only two I’d like to see – and I don’t see them not picking up his option.
That said, there are many different moves that could be made as we approach the deadline. Would a package including Morrow and Washburn (plus others?) to Tampa be strong enough to yield Brignac and Kazmir? Tampa could still make a run at it this year, get an upside arm, and not be on the hook for a big contract next season as they are trying to get rid of Kazmir’s contract for next year (regardless of the buy/sell for 2009) anyway. We could buyout Wilson’s option to clear salary room for Kazmir, and Brignac could assume his rightful position in our nucleus.
If Lopez is moved to third the M’s could sign Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson. The only outfielders worth looking at are expensive(Holiday,Bay)or risky(Ankiel).
How possible would it be to sign Wilson to a 2-year, $10-million or so deal instead of just straight up picking up his option?
Nice idea. Is it possible that Pittsburgh wouldn’t give up Snell unless they also shipped out Wilson and his salary? In that case, this makes sense considering the Pirates are picking up the rest of his ’09 salary. All we’d be on the hook for is the $600K buyout.
Why would we not offer arbirtration to both Beltre and Bedard? Aren’t they unrestricted FA? Don’t we need to offer arbirtration to get a draft pick as compensation if they sign elsewhere? I think it is worth the risk to get both of them back next year (which I would think is unlikely) in order to get the pick(s). To lose them for nothing (especially Bedard because of that trade – I know it is a sunk cost, but it still hurts) would be very disappointing.
When’s Ian making his first Seattle start?
A couple of thoughts.
First, is it safe to assume that payroll is going to be maintained at present level? Certainly we have nothing to indicate that payroll will remain within the status quo.
Certainly the Mariners could cry “economy” and fill the remaining spots entirely from AAA and let all their free agents walk.
Alternatively, is there any situation in which the Mariners would deem it worthy to increase their payroll? (ie. Felix is leaving and we need some talent to make a run before he’s gone…)
Another thought, Zduriencik’s comments on Geoff’s blog today made it seem as if both Washburn and Wilson were being considered for contract extensions.
Not a good sign for the people who (quite reasonably) would like a return on Washburn other then another two to three years of him in the rotation.
If only someone had written up a post on Bedard’s arbitration question in, say, the last week! Oh woe! Woe is us! What cruel world vexes us so when there are no readily available answers to our questions?
What about making a run at Bay or Crawford to play LF? I know they are going to demand huge contracts and Bay lives in Kirkland. Just a thought to spark some talk or debate?
Crawford has an option that will be picked up by Tampa. If Bay was willing to give a discount for a three or four year deal I say go for it.
I meant in the offseason…
I don’t see why we’d try to offer a long term contract to Bay. He’s a horrible outfielder, plus we still have Saunders for cheap for several more years and Gutierrez and Ichiro are likely to be mainstays in Seattle for the next 4+ years. And in 1.5 years, Ackley should be ML-ready. If anything, we’ll have a logjam at OF and will have to trade one for something else. If anything, I’m more than happy with just Langerhans as our LF since he does an adequate job in everything except making contact.
The Mariners already have too many outfielders, why would they add an expensive free agent one?
We’re in good shape in the outfield, with Saunders holding down LF until Ackley is ready. That’s not where we need to be investing our time and money.
With the emergence of Saunders and Gutierez might Ackley remain at first base.
I think Ackley at first base pretty much makes him as unvalue as Clement became when he moved to first. I hear talks of making Ackley a 2B, no clue where i heard it, but if it’s possible i’d much rather have than explored.
No.
Ackley will be a significantly better player than Saunders, and you’d be losing a lot of his value as a defender if you put him at first base.
Good point Jeff. What free agents are available at the end of the season that you could see the M’s going after?
Morrow with another ugly start for Tacoma 13/25 get on base.
I don’t even know what to think of Morrow anymore.
Honestly? Almost nothing. We might have to look for a free-agent third baseman if Beltre won’t resign, and there are one or two pitchers that would be interesting if they are available (although I am in general averse to signing free-agent pitchers), but this upcoming free agent class is pretty underwhelming.
The 2010 Mariners squad, as it stands right now, isn’t in bad shape. There’s no real big glaring holes, and while the offense won’t be great it’ll be better, and the run prevention should still be excellent.
Does Halman no longer fit in the scope of things?
Halman’s probably trade bait at this point. He’s not good enough to push for playing time over Ackley or Saunders, but he’s still good enough to be an asset for the team to use to improve.
I’m also really hoping that we keep Branyan; the offense this year would’ve looked significantly more dismal without him. Although I’d probably prefer to see him at DH next year rather than 1B.
I’m not even sure we’d want a 3B, especially if Tui shows he can hit a little. As it stands right now, Hanahan is running a UZR/150 of about +20. Certainly not a long term solution with the way he’s hitting, but not a bad platoon or stop gap solution for the time being. No sense in spending money just because there is a set budget in mind.
I kinda like the way Z is going about this. Remember that free agents cost draft picks. He’ll try to resign his own free agents and trade for people he believes can help us. Why pile up your money for free agency and lose pretty much your only way to get good hitters to come to Seattle…through the draft.
Ackley, Franklin, Baron, Poythress…
Ya Z is doing a good job. I like the trade he just made. You think Washburn and Morrow are next? Morrow still has a upside even though he has been getting shelled? Texas did get hammered and Milwood and Padilla aren’t helping being injured and sick
I’m [ot]
For me, obviously [ot].
Why derail the thread and take us off-topic?
Morrow’s still a pretty good trade chip (if he doesn’t stick around, which I’d be just fine with also) and I still think Washburn is gone before the deadline, extension talks notwithstanding.
But really, who knows, I was caught off guard by today’s trade too.
is there any truth at all to all of ESPN’s talking about we want to extend/resign Washburn? We couldn’t possibly want to offer him arbitration/extension could we?
Do you think Ackley could play 2B? He is a good athelte and if he could play even avg defense at 2B with an above avg bat, and a lefty one at that, that would be HUGE. Then Saunders can stay in LF. I really like Saunders.
I like Saunders as well. I want Adam Moore to come up. Did you read Salk’s blog…He mentioned a Washburn and Morrow for Joba Chamberlin.
I’m sure they’re talking to Washburn about an extension, but I can’t imagine he won’t want to test the free agent waters, since some dumb GMs will look at his shiny superficial numbers and throw money at him.
If he comes back on a cheap deal, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it’d have to be CHEAP.
Ackley to 2B gets tossed around a lot and I suppose it’s not IMPOSSIBLE, but pretty much everyone seems to agree that his best long-term position is in the outfield.
Morrow’s still a pretty good trade chip (if he doesn’t stick around, which I’d be just fine with also)
Is he still that highly regarded, after the explosions this year and yo-yo development? You might be right, but from the analysis selling him at this point seems like a huge mistake…he seems like a rehab/refurb prospect for any team. But he has the potential to rebound and be something worthwhile for either us or another team.
Unless he gets traded to the Yankees and his ERA balloons to 6.50 over the final two months (which, if we could snag a good prospect from them, is the ideal scenario). Then maybe we could offer him a pay cut for one year so he can get his value up? Would that even make sense from our perspective?
I know he’s a long shot and I understand why he wasn’t worth mentioning in Dave’s 2010 projection… but Truinfel could be a factor next year. If he has a good fall ball and gets off start to AA next year I’d have to think he’d be consider for 3b/2b. Not worth counting on but I’d love to see him blow up and demand attention. He certainly has the talent.
Coming off 2 injuries and on the downturn of his career, probably.
I’m not saying he’s not worth a good contract, but its distinctly possible that Jack isn’t interested in signing him to a long-term deal if that’s what someone else offers him. If he gets offered 4 years and 65M or something like that, are we going to want to compete with that??
And if he gets offered something from a bigger market, is Scott Boras going to make sure he goes there?
I don’t have the answers, but I think they’re important questions.
The team Dave proposes projects to maybe, at best, an 80 win team, depending on how the rotation shakes out.
Chavez is another interesting question. Its possible that he comes back earlier than is projected. Those surgeries have become more and more effective and quick to recover from. But will he be the same? And does he replace Saunders?
Then maybe we could offer him a pay cut for one year so he can get his value up? Would that even make sense from our perspective?
I can’t imagine him taking that. He seems to be fairly self-aware about his performance this year (see various quotes). And even if he wasn’t, he would tie this year into past “success” and disregard the crappy years.
If he’s smart…he cashes in now, and cashes in hard. If he’s an idiot…he feels it’s his due, and cashes in hard.
Um, I may be mistaken, but isn’t that particular contract done after this season?
Unfortunately some attention spans have length issues.
I see him as a bit of a wild card. It’s possible that he can stay and be a rotation guy, especially if he can figure out his offspeed stuff. But it’s more likely,in my mind anyway, that Z shows his sparkling 98 mph fastball to some lowly team in need of a dominant starter and turns him into a 2b keeper or better.
If you’re looking at dollars a sense, no. Offering him arb would be a bad idea. Signing him to a new deal MIGHT be ok. But not for close to the type of money he signed for before. He’s a league average pitcher with the perfect cast behind him. I’d prefer that he’s traded, but if he walks away in FA, I’m not going to cry.
If the team moved Ackley to 2B in the short-term, would it have any negative impact on his outfield defense if he eventually got moved back out to the OF?
And on the last comment, maybe not 6.50 ERA, but more around 4.95, since that might be a better balance of the park and OF effects. Or would some hopeful idiot of a GM dismiss the theoretical Yankee numbers and give him $10-12 million per?
I like that thought. My only concern with it is Z’s obsession for defense. Not that I discard the value of defense. It’s more that I’m concerned about his particular value at the plate in Safeco.
So my question isn’t as much “are we going to” as “do we want to”. Or better yet, “does Z want to” and if he does shoot with that kind of cash, will it come back to bite us?
Don’t the Cubs have a former second baseman in the outfield, and certainly I’ve never heard complaints about his fielding. That direction on the defensive spectrum is rarely a problem.
Bouncing guys around between positions is a really good way to stunt their development. And Jose Lopez, while not great, is one of the smaller problems on the team right now.
Really, Ackley in a corner outfield spot is probably the best strategy.
If you’re referring to my post all I can say is “Bill Bavasi isn’t a GM anymore.”
Do you mean Soriano? He’s a horrible fielder. Apparently he’s started doing a little hop in the air as he goes to catch the ball and sometimes the ball hops right out of his glove.
Also, seriously? You’ve never heard complaints about Soriano’s fielding? I’d go have your ears checked.
So, is there any reason to think the M’s could get Jack Wilson to sign a 2-year, $10-12 million deal in lieu of picking up his $8.4 million option next year, giving them a few extra million to throw around in the offseason?
I think its worked fine, as long as he stops hurting himself when he does that stupid little hop thing when catching a ball.
I’m wondering where he came up with that. It must be something instinctual probably from playing 2B. Maybe a way to keep the ball in front of him on high bounces?
Z has my trust, but I’m not sure anyone gives up a starting pitcher that will be usable in 2010 for two months of Jarrod Washburn.
Doubtful at that low of a number I would think. Maybe 2 years at 12, or 3 at $17M.
But there are a lot of people saying that this year’s offseason FA contracts will shrink. I don’t know about that. Professional sports are still professional sports. Owners with far more money than sense…
It would be really cool if we could make a deal for a legitimate #2 pitcher for Jarrod Washburn, but the other team gets to keep him for the remainder of this season.
Oh, the horrible things I would try to do if I were a MLB GM.
It would be really cool if we could make a deal for a legitimate #2 pitcher for Jarrod Washburn, but the other team gets to keep him for the remainder of this season.
Oh, the horrible things I would try to do if I were a MLB GM.
Bud and company would shut you down very quickly. They couldn’t take the team away, but they would figure out all sorts of ways to screw you over.
Yeah, Bug Selig really is a model citizen for an ethically concerned businessman.
So, if I understand you correctly, you’re suggesting that he take $5-$6m per year if Z declines the team option of $8.4m.
As possible as that may be, I would see it as more likely that his agent has him play in free angency. His value at this point is probably fairly close to the option. (ok maybe not, but his agent will sell that idea.)
Sorry for that snipe, Sidi. It reads way more mean than it was supposed to.
Read it in more of a jokingly said smart ass tone than a snipey rude tone.
I actually got a good chuckle out of this one. Thank you henryv.
henryv I wasn’t saying he’s ethical (that would be one of the last terms I would use for him). But he will defend the status quo very heavily, with the support of the owners.
If teams start engaging in gaming the system it becomes a free-for-all…with only the office to regulate it. And most teams don’t want that (which really makes sense, if you aren’t one of the two or three teams with nearly unlimited budges).
Hell, about half the teams aren’t even willing to seriously break “slot bonus” numbers….
Budgets, not budges. Or budgies.
True. The other half drafted Boras clients…
Wilson’s agent is on record as counter-offering Pittsburg 3 years 20m (6.5, 6.5, 7), that seems to me a better deal than picking up his option for 8m next season. He is worth it for his defense alone, he is as dominant at SS defensively as Beltre is at 3rd. Given the lack of prospects we’ve got in the minors, and the terrible quality of play we’ve gotten used at SS, why not lock him in for three years.
Beltre should probably go, because you’ve got Trunifel in the pipeline, and even if you could get Beltre to sign for 9-10m, he’d want 4 or 5 years. If you can’t get anybody on the market, then you could do worse than Tui/Hanahan.
I’d like to see a Carp/Shelton platoon at first if Branyan doesn’t come back. Or have them platoon at DH otherwise. The outfield is in as good a shape as it’s been since Cameron left, so that is set.
So the way I see it, the only real holes to fill are 3rd, and 2,3 in the rotation.
When Ackley is ML ready, is the plan to stick him in Left, put Saunders and his atheletic, 6’4 frame at 1st (or maybe 3rd?) and Branyan DH (provided he’s still around).
Saunders will probably be traded once Ackley is ready. Or, it’s not impossible he’d replace Ichiro.
It is impossible that he’d replace Ichiro! Ichiro! will play for the Mariners and be awesome forever! Long live Ichiro!
Oh, right, I forgot.
I think the first thing we should do is trade Washburn and Lowe to the LA and see if we could add to SP depth with a McDonald and maybe get a utility guy like Dewitt. As for Beltre i would offer arbitration, but i believe there is a 3 year contract in the NL waiting for him, plus the fact that he will be type B free agent will make him more attractive. This will allow us to get a sandwich pick.
If the season ended today the M’s would have the 17TH pick if we get into the top 15 then our pick is protected against a type A free agent pick up. With the sandwich pick from Beltre it would not hurt to much to give a second rounder up for a Type A assuming a couple teams better us between now and the end of the season. I wouldn’t mind picking up Bobby Abreau and making him the DH if we could pick him up for 6 to 7 million a year. I would try to sign Russell B. for a similar contract. As for 3B you could have Tui Dewitt and Hanahan fight it out or you could have enough left over and get a melvin mora type.
Bedard bring him back off the DL in 15 days showcase for a start or two, and see if you can make a waiver deal. You might be able to 30 cents on the dollar for him. If no waiver deal no arb at the end of the year. This should put us at 95 mil more or less.
Most of what I’d have to say about the Mariners off-season priorities would just be reiterating what Dave has already–For the most part, eloquently stated.
Aside from Beltre and Branyan, there really aren’t any free-agents to be desired anyway. Certainly if Beltre doesn’t resign you would have to pursue a Crede or possibly a trade for Josh Fields, and perhaps an incentive laden deal for Bedard or Harden would be a wise investment, but otherwise I’d say the M’s are pretty well set as far as 2010 is concerned.
In fact, if the Mariners got another decent infielder and/or starting pitcher for Jarrod Washburn, I wouldn’t think they’d have to make another move aside from resigning the two vitals.
M’s should absolutely trade for 3B Josh Fields! You can never have too many Josh Fieldses.
Rebuilder-
As has been discuss earlier in this post, the M’s won’t have a lot of payroll to work with this off-season so I see no way they will be able to afford an Abreau or Mora (certainly not both). Why would you go with Abreau anyways with Carp, Branyan, and Shelton available to fill the DH role?
I hope the M’s find a way to fit Guti, Ackley, and Sanders into the same lineup. That could be a special group for years to come! Throw felix and Triunfel in there and the future for the M’s looks pretty bright.
Or maybe not. Craig Biggio and Robin Yount say hello. It depends entirely on the individual. If it’s at all feasible to turn a projected plus bat such as Ackley’s into a LH-hitting 2B, and he’s willing or even eager, at least give it a try.
What are spring trasining and the fall instructional leagues for if not for stuff like this? If he’s not willing, or not adaptable, then forget it. But it’s just silly to dismiss it out of hand.
It will be interesting to see what does happen as Ichiro winds down, as he has such a highstandard for himself…
I’m still drooling over Kazmir/Brignac. Oh how i’d love to see Washburn/Lowe/Wilson/”piece” in a three way deal that nets us them. I’ve been dreaming all morning over the possibilities if are starting 5 were
Felix, Bedard, Snell, Kazmir, Morrow
There’s a whole lot of questions marks after Felix, but if (although it is a big if) they all played near there potential that could be one of the best rotations in baseball.
And if there are injuries or poor performances we always would have
Felix, Hyphen, Vargas, Olson, Chris Jak…..
So where Branyan/Betlre/Bedard would take most or all of the winter money, the team be set and passable at every position, and ready to take a chance at a run.
Am I nuts, or if the M’s could pull that off would it be worth it?
Johjima’s probably going away (either back to Japan or traded, with the team basically assuming the rest of his salary), so you can mentally cross him off the list.
Is it possible? Could it be true? I will pay for his plane ticket if that is the case!!!
Or for that matter a 34 year-old Russell Branyan, a 31 year-old Adrian Beltre, a 32 year-old Jack Wilson, and a 36 year-old Jarrod Washburn. Offering contracts to all of these guys makes me nervous.
If we resign these guys, three of our four biggest bats next year will be on the wrong side of thirty–some extremely so.
That many multi-year deals can quickly turn into team anchors–beloved anchors as they may be.
Gutierrez and Ichiro! will be free agents after 2012. I think it is unrealistic to expect Ackley to be ready before mid-2011, at the absolute earliest. So when you are talking about, at most, 1.5 seasons of overlap between Gutierrez, Ichiro!, Saunders, and Ackley, I don’t think you worry about trading any of them. You keep all 4 to cover you for injuries and for use as DH’s. Maybe you think about trading someone in the 2011/2012 offseason if all 4 have established themselves as healthy and worth of starting jobs. But that is really too far off to be a consideration at this point.
As much as I like the idea of having Beltre and Branyan back to help compete in 2010, both would have to be for 1 or 2 year deals and both would have to be pretty reasonable. Guys like Tui and Carp are dirt cheap and need to get opportunities soon to see whether they can stick as regulars.
As much as everyone loves Beltre, he hasn’t been the healthiest cat the past couple seasons and you have to wonder when the defense will start dropping off if he accumulates nagging injuries.
Branyan has been everything the team hoped for when they signed him, but he will be 34 next year and this is easily his most productive season. Bringing him back will help the team contend in 2010, but I just hope they don’t get too infatuated with Branyan’s success. They have to remember that their are other Branyan’s out there who deserve a shot and can be signed for $1-2 million.
Surely their has to be a bad contract that Johjima can be swapped for? Johjima for Milton Bradley? Johjima for Oliver Perez? Johjima for JD Drew?
I know this is a ways up and different from what has been talked about in recent posts, but am I the only one who thinks the Mariners can resign Bedard to a contract given to Sheets(none till off injury), Garcia, Mulder, Prior where they sign him next to nothing and load the contract with incentives. The trend as of late is to leave injured pitchers alone. There is a high risk of signing bedard back with his injuries but high reward if he finally gets over them. I don’t think any body is going to try to sign him with his injuries. Look at Pedro and Sheets. I think Bedard will experience the same, so why not take the risk and lose a million? Is there a better cheaper option out there at the moment?