The Trade
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Basic summary: I think we overpaid, unless it comes out that the Pirates are picking up half of Wilson’s 2010 salary or something. I liked Snell as a good buy-low candidate, but I’m not sure this is buying low. We gave up a lot for two guys with a lot of question marks.
Long summary, reposted from FanGraphs:
It’s no secret that I’m both a Mariner fan and an Ian Snell fan, as I’ve been lobbying for the M’s to acquire the guy from Pittsburgh for the last two months. I laid my reasons for liking Snell at the time, and his Triple-A performance hasn’t lessened my enthusiasm.
So, when the Mariners actually go out and trade for Snell, you would think I’d be a happy man. However, my first reaction when I heard about the deal that sent Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock to Pittsburgh for Snell and Jack Wilson was “yuckâ€.
Let’s start with what the Mariners are getting. Wilson is a really good defensive shortstop who can hit well enough to justify his place in the line-up. Despite a lack of power and an aggressive approach at the plate, he’s still been a +1.5 to +2.5 win player for most of his career. He’s essentially a league average shortstop, and at $7.25 million in salary for 2009 with a team option at $8.4 million for 2010, he’s not overly expensive for what he is. He’s a solid role player who does enough things well to earn his contract and won’t hurt the team he’s playing for.
But he’s also 31 years old, and while he’s not overly expensive, he’s not a bargain either. Adam Everett is a similar player and signed a 1 year, $1 million deal with the Tigers last winter. Wilson’s salary makes him a small asset, not a big one. He’s not the kind of player the Mariners should be giving up significant pieces to attain.
So, that leaves Snell as the main piece of value coming back. While I’m a fan, I also saw him as a buy-low opportunity, as he was done in Pittsburgh and everyone knew it. He’s not an ace – he’s a guy with good stuff and average to below average command and some well documented issues with his prior organization. I don’t like the word headcase, but when you’re talking about a guy who would rather pitch in Triple-A than the majors, it’s hard to argue with.
Snell’s contract is better than Wilson’s, as he makes just $4.25 million next year and then has two club options for 2011 and 2012 that could be bargains if he rebounds to prior form. But there’s obviously the risk that he won’t, and then you’re looking at getting one year of Snell and letting him leave. He may be a long term asset… or he might be a one year flop.
For two guys with minimal value, the Mariners parted with five young players.
Clement’s the big name of the bunch, as a LH DH/1B/C? with power who had no future with the Mariners. He can hit righties, but his ability to do anything else is questionable. His knee problems have kept him from catching, and the bat might not be good enough to make him more than a solid 1B/DH type, especially if he can’t figure out LHPs.
Cedeno is a solid utility infielder who plays good defense at SS/2B, but can’t hit. He’s a nice role player, but basically the definition of replacement level.
It’s the three pitchers that the team gave up that pushes the deal in Pittsburgh’s favor. Pribanic and Lorin were the teams 4th and 5th round picks in 2008, and both had impressed in their first year as professionals.
Pribanic’s an extreme groundball guy who throws strikes but lacks an out-pitch, so he profiles as a #5 starter or a good reliever. If his breaking ball improves, he could beat that upside, though.
Lorin’s a good command guy with a nice breaking ball and an average fastball, plus some projectability as a big guy (6′7/250) who hasn’t had much experience on the mound. If he adds a couple of MPH to his fastball, he could be a mid-rotation starter.
Adcock had struggled of late with his command, but as a 21-year-old with a decent fastball-curveball combination and the ability to get groundballs, he’s also an interesting arm. Getting him out of High Desert should give Pittsburgh a better idea of where he stands right now.
They’re all just decent pitching prospects instead of good ones, so the M’s gave up quantity over quality, but the old cliche about building a rotation by getting a ton of arms and seeing who sticks is really true. The M’s had done a good job of collecting an inventory of decent arms, and they just depleted that fairly heavily, while also giving up a LH power bat, for two guys with marginal value.
Pittsburgh is the easy winner of this deal, as they get some interesting young talent and shed some salary without losing much that will hurt them. The Mariners could still salvage this by moving Wilson before Friday’s deadline for a younger SS with more long term potential, but if they stand pat with Wilson as the team’s shortstop for 2009 and maybe 2010, color me disappointed.
Yeah throwing in 3 minor leauge pitchers seems a little steep, but otherwise I think this is a good deal that helps the pitching and defense. The offense still needs a lot of help….
According to Kovacevic, the Pirates are eating almost all of the salaries for both Wilson and Sneel this year. Ms only on the hook for $400k each.
Ask and you will receive.
“1:24pm: Kovacevic reports that the Pirates will pay nearly all of the money owed to Wilson and Snell this year. The Mariners will pay each player $400k.”
The Pirates are basically paying Wilson and Snell’s ‘09 salaries.
If the Pirates are paying that much money I like this deal a lot.
Fully agree Dave, not a big fan of this move at all…
Yeah I read too that the Pirates are sending over a lot of $$$…
If Snell can pitch like he has in the past this is an okay trade..if not we gave up too much
I’m guessing Seattle will flip Wilson to Milwaukee along with Washburn and maybe Morrow, for Hardy.
Look at it from Milwaukee’s standpoint. From a PR perspective and the perspective of handling a top prospect, they can’t trade Hardy for pitching and throw Escobar into the fire. Why risk making their SS of the future the goat if they can’t win the division? Wilson gives them the “proven veteran, with a track record, who’s been there before, who knows how to win,” or whatever.
Having Wilson lets them trade Hardy for pitching. That’s my guess as to what is happening.
Reasonable people might disagree, but If that’s what comes down, I don’t think it’s overpaying.
Well, OK, yeah, if the Pirates are picking up the salaries. But wasn’t the low minors where all our good talent (especially pitching talent, or am I remembering wrong?) supposed to be? Do we still have any left after this and the Adam Jones deal?
Three minor league pitchers, including two Midwest league all-stars, in addition to Clement and Cedeno, feels like an overpay to me, too. I realize single A pitchers often burn out, which is why you need more of them to get one all the way to the majors… but that’s why you want to hang onto them, too. And Snell might not make it back either.
Setting aside the payroll, Wilson for Clement and Cedeno, Snell for two minor league pitchers, sounds about fair. The third takes it into overpay. Unless there’s more going on (though it seems unlikely the Pirates would be willing to pay any salary).
And it must suck to be a Pirates fan — pretty much every known face on that team has been traded away in the past 12 – 18 months.
What I like is that it didn’t take Morrow, Cortes, Aumont, Pineda or Ramirez to get the deal done. All five are RH possible starters with more talent an upside than all three of the traded pitchers combined. Pribanic is the only piece of the deal that could come back and bite us outside of Clement.
And a catcher who can’t stick at the position(possibly) for a starting SS and RHSP is a good deal. Also, I hope this means the M’s are not giving up on this year and will retain Wash and extend him for two/20mil.
Does Snell head to the big league club to fill Bedard’s spot in the rotation, or is he going to be sent to Tacoma?
Wow Wash, Morrow, and Wilson for just Hardy????
That would be a terrible move!!!!! As much as I would love to have Hardy as an everyday SS, the Brew crew has been choking big time(losing 16 of last 23) and probably aren’t going to be buyers. I think Dr. Z fell back on this as his backup plan when the Brewers were no longer interested in Wash.
It sounds like Snell will be joining the rotation and taking Bedard’s spot.
I think Snell is the key to this deal. With Wilson, what you see is what you get (an improvement on what we had, but not what most of us were hoping for). I’m curious what Dave thinks Snell’s role will be. Given his upside and because we didn’t have a place for Clement, Cedeno is a spare part, and the others are pretty far away, overall this seems like a decent deal.
Wilson doesn’t have a 2010 salary, there is a club option for 8m, with a 600k buyout. So you’d think Jack would have negotiated an extension with Wilson before the trade was finalized. Last week of course Wilson turned down a 8m 2 year offer from the Pirates. So it would likely take at least 5m a year to sign him to an extension.
Here’s a link to the Rob Neyer analysis of this trade.
He thinks this is a somewhat better deal for Seattle than Dave does, but not overwhelmingly so.
Ummmmmm…no? We’re not going to trade Washburn, Wilson and Morrow for Hardy.
Substantial improvements for the current roster – including someone to step in for Bedard. Looks like we’re buying. The pitchers are 3 years away and Clement’s skillset is easily replaceable. We have good if not better pitching talent further along in our system (Morrow, Hill, Costa, and those other arms in High Desert) still intact, and we’ve added a quality ML arm.
I like that we are in a pennant chase, if not necessarily in the midst of a race right now, and that we aren’t selling the farm to upgrade the talent on the field. It’s like the front office is telling the team: We expect you to win, and we’re going to make you better so you can do so.
I know USSM was hoping we could pick up Snell on the cheap for someone like Wlad but Huntington essentially said he was not going to make a deal like that:
“Teams are still hoping to bottom fish and we’re still not ready to just give the guy away,” Huntington said. “At this point, his four or five strong outings haven’t increased his value [externally]. We’re not talented enough and deep enough as an organization to just give away a player that has Major League ability, as challenging as it can be sometimes.”
Considering that, I’m OK with this trade. It doesn’t seem like there’s a huge winner on either side. Although, I wish we could have held on to Lorin.
DR. Z jersey, that is my xmas gift I’ve told my wife and so it shall be! TY DR. Z. I know Dave thinks its over paying a lil, and I respect Dave and all at ussmariner.com quiet a bit, but honestly I’m happy!
Everyone here trusts Zduriencik’s talent evaluation skills, correct? This leaves Wash as a major trading chips, and my guess would be that Z has a trade on the front burner that’s going to have some synergy with this–questionable–trade with the Pirates. Also, we gave up high draft picks, but they were Bavasi’s picks, and we all know about his talent evaluation. I know admittedly little of the minor leaguers we threw in in addition to Clement; am I totally mistaken?
I don’t think just because you overpay for talent as opposed to fleecing a GM like Z did in the Guti trade along with the Betancourt “addition by subtraction” trade it’s a bad trade.
Sure, there’s GROSSLY overpaying for a player like when you trade Erik Bedard for 5 prospects. Need I go further than that?
But then there’s a trade like this where you accomplish a lot even though you overpay slightly.
In this trade for instance, you:
*Fill 2 needs on your roster for now and 2010
*Give up two guys who didn’t really have a future with this team anyways (Clement, Cedeno) for a defensive wiz like Wilson and a pitcher in Snell who has a solid upside. Snell could be a #4 or #5 starter tomorrow, but could emerge into being a #2 or #3.
*AND you don’t use ALL of your trade chips on one deal, you can still use your 2 most immediate trade prospects in Morrow and/or Washburn for at least one more trade.
I can understand why giving up 2 of our prospects with upside like Nathan Adcock and Aaron Pribanic would perturb people.
But let’s face it, you aren’t going to fleece every GM on every deal. Obviously if the Mariners only were getting either Snell or Wilson, they don’t throw in Adcock AND Pribanic into the deal.
But they did, so if the Pirates (who haven’t won anything since 1992) want to take a chance on two lower level minor league pitchers as opposed to a pitcher like Tillman was for us (AA pitcher about to move up to AAA with big league potential), let them.
Especially since they are giving us Snell who can pitch for us TOMORROW.
At some point, I would have to think you have to start making moves that you think will get you to the playoffs and then the pennant rather than standing pat.
There’s some risk to this trade, but I like the reward that may come with it.
Seems as I remember a couple days ago we were talking about how we would prefer Escobar, because Hardy was slipping a little every year and was, well, Wilson with a little more pop.
I realize Hardy commands more in a trade because of past stats then Wilson, but Hardy doesn’t seem like a big enough improvement to give up Washburn, Wilson and maybe Morrow.
We will see, we are coming down to the final 48 hours.
Buster Only was just on 710ESPN and said the Mariners are listening to offers for Washburn, but they aren’t going out trying to get them, they are just listening to the offers that come, they have no sense of urgency. Maybe Jack is playing his cards close to the vest, or maybe he really doesn’t feel like he has to trade Washburn.
And Neyer is reporting the Bucs are picking up large chunks of the salaries.
I like this trade. What I think makes this trade is that next year we will have Tui at 3b. With the range that Wilson has at s.s it may help alleviate the loss of the all world defense of Beltre. Balls that Beltre would get to in the hole now will be picked up by Wilson.
This trade sure looks like a wash to me. I’m really not sure if Wilson’s underpowered bat is worth all this, but it’s not Bedard-terrible, or even really Choo-terrible.
But I’m confused. This doesn’t seem like a “buy” or “sell” trade. This seems more like a “stand pat” trade.
Amazed the Pirates are essentially paying the contracts. Wasn’t the Wilson 2010 option a club option?
Although I’m positive, don’t get me wrong: Brignac and Kazmir for Morrow and Clement was a real dream scenario. I’d a been doing cartwheels over that one.
Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reports that the Reds acquired Wladimir Balentien from the Mariners for righty Robert Manuel.
Reds Acquire Wladimir Balentien
Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reports that the Reds acquired Wladimir Balentien from the Mariners for righty Robert Manuel.
I trust Z’s evaluation of players. Look how good the people he picked up so far have turned out in what he picked them up for. Branyan for power, Guet for a solid CF, Hanahan for defense, etc. He must see some serous upside in Snell. I think the three pitchers were a little much, but if Snell starts throwing lights out with a fantastic defense with a safeco hr distance he could be huge. I want to see the analysis on change of home park for snell would do.
Anyone notice we unloaded Balentien to the Reds….
Wlad to the Reds for Robert Manuel. Anybody know anything about him?
RE: this trade. I actually really like it. Wilsons really fantastic with the glove and makes contact with the bat, and Snell has nice stuff and can miss bats.
RE: Balentien, its another reliever, but its a pretty good one. 38 strikeouts in 36 innings and allows the team to move Lowe or White without having to rely on (gulp) batista.
Mariners deal Balentien to Reds for Robert Manuel.
Another Relief pitcher.
As BillyJive says.
Balentien to the Reds for RHP Robert Manuel.
Seems like a decent enough bullpen arm, nothing extraordinary about him, but could make someone like Lowe or White more expendable.
In 2008 was a Southern League All-Star and received an MLB.com This Year In Baseball Award (MiLBY) as the best reliever in the Minor Leagues.
Of coarse Z could have saw little future in the guys he got rid of. That is the other side of the coin we do not about. He may have been wanting to dispose of these pitchers for awhile after taking the helm. But we’ll probably never know.
I think is lateral move for the Mariners. We get a two month look Wilson at SS. If we like him we can work out a deal to lock him up for less than the 8.4 million dollar option we have on him for the 2010 season. If he underwhelms then we dump him. Snell gives us a mid-to-bottom rotation guy with some upside. All this for Clement and a few mid-tier pitching prospects that were all drafted by Bavasi and Co. If we’re really rebuilding then jettisoning some dead weight is a great way to start. Clement was clear not in Mariners plans for the future and we’re getting a chance to impact the MLB roster with his departure.
I love the trade, but has a team ever given up on a #3 pick in the draft quicker than the M’s did on Clement? I mean he has less than 500 at bats in the majors—The only thing I can think of is in the NBA when the celtics gave up on Chauncey Billups after 2 years then he went on to be a star. Finally a SS to field the ball, which is obviously a Huge upgrade!
And there goes Balentien to Reds.
From Dave’s guesswork last night:
Whoops.
What are the Pirates are seeing in Clement’s recovery and long-term durability that made them go for this? I wouldn’t have thought an NL club would go for him either.
I also wonder how Z got the Pirates to (reportedly) eat the lion’s share of the remaining salary for Snell and Wilson? That makes this a lot better, all things considered.
Whew! That was close. At least they didn’t give up Balentien too.
If Wilson and Snell both get added to the big league roster, then won’t we have to make another move to get back down to 25? Maybe Sweeney’s back is “acting up” again. I hope they don’t send Shelton back down to Tacoma.
Dave,
A starting SS and a starting pitcher = “minimal value?”
Wilson is only a year older than Beltre.
Clement and Cedeneo had no future here. So:
Starting SS and Starting Pitcher >>>>> 3 mid level pitching prospects.
Speaking of trading for pitching, the M’s just traded Wlad for a pitcher that sounds pretty good.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/robert-manuel.shtml
Did anyone notice we shiped Balentien off to the Reds? Who is this Manuel guy?
If that Balentien trade is true, we might have one of our relievers dealt soon?
Balentien for Manuel – Love it! We can use Manuel and have no use for Wlad.
Look what he did last year in Chattanooga: 77 IP, 92 K, 15 walks. That is seriously impressive. His stats this year are pretty darn good as well.
Given the scarcity of talent at SS in MLB, if the Pirates have indeed picked up Wilson’s salary in this deal, that could make him a very, very tradeable piece in a flip sort of deal … no?
I’m curious what the Minor League Guru Jay thinks about this “time will tell” deal?
Or maybe we will DFA Batista
[Dave's a pessimist, we're all yes-men, if we were clever we'd work for teams, etc]
No way in heck did Pittsburgh win this deal. We gave up three low end pitchers, a dh/1b prototype that the FO doesn’t like, and a horrible hitting SS for a Mid rotation pitcher, and a great fielding, minimal bat Short Stop. Good deal for m’s.
That said…if the m’s don’t trade Washburn…
Word on the street is that Pittsburgh sent $3.3M at the Mariners too. Not sure if this balances things out or not.
A few days ago, I think I said that Alcides Escobar was replaceable as a prospect if the Brewers traded him. Now, maybe I was being overly hopeful in that specific case, and won’t belabor the point.
However, I think when you are looking at three pitchers in single-A — none of whom I’ve seen projected as an ace, but more described as back-of-the-rotation or relief pitchers — those types of players are replaceable. When was the earliest ETA on any of these pitchers we gave them? If it’s not until 2012 or 2013, then it doesn’t seem like a huge loss. (Plus, they are pre-Zduriencik picks, so he may have evaluated them differently)
If that’s the best deal we could get for Clement and 3 A-ball arms, then it’s a good deal to me. None of the four were playing in Seattle anytime soon.
Is anyone else starting to get the feeling that maybe Z overvalues defense? I love aquisitions of guys who are way undervalued because they have great gloves, but at some point, a team needs to score runs, too. Twenty-four one-run games in 2/3 of a season seems too much like living on the edge to me. A few of his aquisitions lately seem to give a little too much credit to defense. I can’t believe I’m saying this.
Wlad to Cincy for a good AAA arm. Good move by Dr.Z to get something for Wlad!
It seems to me that this trade comes several weeks too late. If it had happened a month earlier, it might have made a difference for this season, now, it most likely won’t.
There’s still talent left (Hill, for example) but it certainly would be nice to get a few more pieces for the system as part of the other trades that are inevitably going to happen.
…and Balentien to the Reds for Robert Manuel, a 25 year old reliever who is basically everything the current bullpen isn’t: a right handed guy with control (or at least a good K/BB ratio)
Given that the Pirates sent a sizable amount of money our way in the deal makes it a little better…it’s still a big haul for two guys that aren’t sure things. At least Morrow is still around for another day or a better trade.
In other news, sources saying that Lee to Philly is essentially a done deal. That would shorten the list of suitors for Wash to the Yankees and Angels, right?
This ‘hold on until one of the big name guys goes’ strategy might backfire in a big way. The list of buyers for Wash is shrinking by the day, either because of how they’re doing on the field or the moves being made around us. I hope Z can salvage a trade for Wash to pick up some upside prospects.
P.S. the Wlad trade looks to be a good one…at least we know how to build a bullpen on the cheap.
The Pirates are paying Seattle $3,308,702.19 as part of the Jack Wilson/Ian Snell trade.
here is the link
http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/default.aspx
What makes you think this trade is about this season? They’re going to play again in ‘10, too. Wilson has a team option next year for $8.4M (600K buyout); Snell is on a deal where he’s paid $4.25M in ‘10, and then there are club options for ‘11 ($6.75M) and ‘12 ($9.25M)
Assuming Zduriencik isn’t just setting up to flip one or the other or both in a follow-on deal. (That’s how he got Cedeno, after all)
Based on UZR, we just got the best defensive shortstop in baseball. Imagine he and Beltre creating an impervious wall on the left side of the diamond. And he hits 250, so he is a marked improvement over Cedeno in batting average. For this we gave up Clement, who had no role here. I am just wondering what the heck Pittsburgh plans to do with Clement. Maybe they have another deal worked out with an American League team.
Of course, the M’s got players back in exchange for Yuniesky Betancourt, which no one was expecting. If you add those guys into this deal as part of the overall karmic balance, it’s not so bad.
I’m sorry to rant on the site, and I know the rules and the rest of you cronies can go and tattle on me and kiss Cameron’s ass
You should have put that up front so I could have stopped reading before I wasted 1 and a half minutes of my life.
I think, with cash considerations, this deal is not as bad as I first thought. The defensive potential of our infield gets me pretty excited. Snell is a risk, and I can’t help but feel the quantity of names makes it seem lopsided, but, in the end, if we aren’t paying much for the risks in contract terms this year, I feel ok about this. Not jazzed, but ok. I at least don’t get the same feelings I did when Bavasi got fleeced. There is an argument that the Pirates didn’t get the better of us, at least. The Wlad trade, I am not so sure.
I wonder, too, if Z is also doing right by some guys who they’ve determined have no real future with the club. It’s not the basis for the moves, but I bet Clement gets a better shot in Pitt than he’d get here. Wlad may not have been the direction the team wanted to go either. They got a return and helped move a guy to greener pastures, perhaps. I at least am going to pretend that’s part of it for the warm and fuzzy effect.
What continues to become more and more apparent is that not only did the Bavasi era mess up the organization with trades and free agent signings, but they were clueless with the draft. Besides wasting first round picks on bullpen arms, we just dealt two of Bavasi’s fifth round picks, a third round pick, and the third pick of the first round for an above average defensive SS and, hopefully, #3 or #4 starter.
That being said, I like the deal. Z has to try and get some value out of the mess that Bavasi left.
For what, a month? Maybe a little more, if Mr Medical Miracle really can come back in a couple of weeks. It will be pretty to watch in September, though. But 3B certainly is a looming problem for the offseason. Beltre might take a short “prove it” deal, but he’ll get better offers in the offseason.
Yeah, I’ve been wondering that too. But they just gave LaRoache up to Boston, so they need a 1B with some pop. I suspect that’s the plan (with maybe some spot catching as a backup if his knees ever allow it).
Hmmm.. what do you think the chances of us flipping Wilson are, Dave?
Really, I am sort of upset about this deal. Mainly just because we bought, and I don’t like the fact that we got a 32 year old shortstop. If we can flip him with Washburn to someone for a nice young SS, then I won’t mind it at all.
Wlad was already DFA’d, and prior to that he had almost vanished on the bench because Wak didn’t want to play him. He still can’t hit breaking stuff, and his swing isn’t suited for Safeco. There’s no “may” about it — he had no future in Seattle, and the only question was when, not if.
Great American Ballpark is a hitter’s park, and is much better suited to a RH pull hitter like Wlad than Safeco. He may thrive there in ways he never would in Seattle. I’m impressed that Zduriencik got anything for him, really, since a team could gamble that if they waited they could get him for nothing. A decent bullpen arm in return is a good deal (and if Wlad does thrive in Cincinnati, it’s a win-win for everybody).
Rick L said:
Way to include one of the more valuable new statistics (UZR) with one of the less valuable old statistics (AVG) in the same paragraph. Its like screaming “I’m awesome and I understand the new stats … but not so much.”
I’m just teasing, but it was still funny to see you cite UZR and batting average.
Wilson is basically Adam Everett lite with the glove, while Everett is Jack Wilson lite with the bat. Both are around league average overall.
I think Dave is a little too hard and this is a wash. Espeically when you factor in the $3.3 million coming to Seattle (straight into Ackley’s wallet). Too many unknowns to judge the trade today. It could be a huge win for the M’s if Snell is a #3 for the rest of his deal and Wilson provides his usual good defense. It could be a huge win for the Pirates if Clement stays healthy and finds a defensive home and/or one of the A-ball arms develops and raises his ceiling. But for today, it is about even.
In addition to the cash sent over as part of the deal, how much additional ticket revenue over the course of the summer does the club make selling this as a “buy” trade vs. a “sell” trade?
It seems to me that Z did a good job of 1. improving the team’s chances next year, 2. not hurting public perception/ticket revenue this year, & 3. not overpay (when one considers the cash given up by Pittsburgh).
I don’t know, you guys tell me: How much does the storyline “we’re giving up on this year” depress ticket sales over the rest of the season?
At this time, it probably isn’t. But if they had done it earlier, they might still be in the race. It seems to me that all of the involved players have been mentioned in trade speculation for weeks so waiting until now might’ve been an opportunity missed. Oh well, that’s water down the bridge now.
I think what kills this deal for me is i saw Brignac and Kazmir, and got Snell Wilson instead, and seeing the numbers 5 for 2 always makes you wonder first. All that said it’s not a bad deal, Wash and probably Lowe will be traded by the 31st, and Wilson may be used in the deal, and Snell replaces Wash/Erik. I’d still love to get Kaz and Brignac, although Wilson would need to be shipped to a third team and not so sure Z wants to spend money on two risk/reward pitchers.
This deal just yells “Win Now” even though we clearly are out of it this year, i suppose Wilson/Snell are pretty much Free Trials for 2010 though, and we dealt unwanted pieces so all and all it’s not that bad.
The problem I have with this deal is not overpaying, but rather the fact that even with Snell and Wilson we obviously aren’t beating the Angels or winning the wildcard. This is a repeat of the foolish Maggette for Ewing trade the Sonics once made.
Everyone knows they are out of the race, and with Washburn signing a big contract this offseason (and thus no longer needing to play well for a payoff) I don’t see them pitching nearly as well next year.
The Pirates didn’t have a hole at first (and thus a use for Clement) until they traded LaRoache to Boston less than a week ago. Presumably there was no fit before that.
I don’t think anybody expected the M’s to get swept by the Indians. And if you know of a way Zduriencik could’ve made a trade that stopped the Angels from winning, I’d love to hear about it.
I’m sure if a trade had been there to be made that would’ve improved the team a couple of weeks ago, they would’ve made it. I’m sure the Phillies would’ve liked to have gotten Cliff Lee a start or two ago, too.
But, as you say, water under the bridge.
Wow.
For once, I’m in complete agreement with Dave.
“For two guys with minimal value, the Mariners parted with five young players.” Yep. There’s nothing wrong with getting Snell, and a Snell for Clement both-of-you-need-a-change type deal would’ve been great. Wlad+Clement, whatever. But we get a short-to-medium term upgrade at SS and get to take a flyer on a headcase (a talented one), in exchange for a lot of A-ball pitching depth. Oh, and we get to pay more money for the privilege. Yes, yes, Pittsburgh’s picking up the ‘09 money, but we’ll still owe Snell and may need to buy out Wilson. I… I can’t shake the fact that this makes much more sense if you thought you could compete RIGHT NOW.
Let’s be clear, though; this isn’t a disastrous trade. Yes, it’s an overpay, but not a huge one, and Clement’s potential trade value had to be diminished somewhat by this last year or so. Cedeno’s value wasn’t so hot, either.
Losing the low-minors pitching depth is unfortunate, yes, but smart drafting or another trade can fix that up pretty quickly.
This is a trade that makes the team better right now, unlike most of Bavasi’s work. All told, I am reasonably happy, and will be happier if we move Washburn to get something moderately shiny.
If Balentien and Clement were that good, why aren’t they with the M’s who have a poor offense and average defense?? The three arms are guys we have not heard of….so, we get a very good defensive SS with a .270 career average is 31 and he is free for the rest of the season with an option for next. Snell fell out of favor with the Pirates, but looks to sucked it up and put up some good number s the past two months…he is a risk ans has some guaranteed money but worth the risk. Cedeno is a minor league SS who brings nothing to this ea. The pitcher from the Reds has a nice background and can be an arm in the pen while Balentien has plenty of chances and showd very little….good risk moves Jack.
Just because you haven’t heard of them doesn’t mean anything. Don’t project your ignorance on other people.
I like this trade a lot. I understand the “stock-pile arms” mentality to building a rotation, but lets not forget we still have some chips that we can use to get those type of arms back. Also, because of Safeco Field, FA pitchers are easier to recruit than hitters.
When I heard Snell….I first thought of Chris Snelling aka Doyle. Doyle was released by Pittsburg Triple A team earlier this month. WTF, isn’t Snelling just as good as Langerhaus?
I went to sleep last night hoping to wake up and find that we had Brignac, so this is just disappointing. Seems like an overpay based on how many pitching prospects we gave up, but not too bad. I was hoping for something in our favor given Zduriencik’s track record, but at least we still have the Washburn trade to come (assuming it will occur at some point)
i suppose we did overpay, but trading Wash/Lowe/LaHair etc. etc. will quickly restock those farm arms. We weren’t suppose to get anything for Washburn at the begining of the year, turning him into Snell and Wilson while flipping a couple low level arms we will get for Washburn sounds good to me. This trade by itself isn’t a win, but Washburn with trade value is a bonus none of us were suppose to get, so if you look at it that way we still end up winning at the end of the day, (or at least by the deadline).
Just please Z, don’t listen to any of the idiots on ESPn that think we should resign Wash.
Rumors at ESPN says the Twins are interested in Sean White. I wonder what JZ could get for him and if, perhaps, Manuel was brought aboard as a possible replacement? We’ll see. Baseballcube.com has Manuel’s rating for control at 100, K Rate at 84, and efficiency at 99. Wlad was not going to play here anymore. I really like this trade.
Jack has shown a great penchant for picking up pitching talent, ala Olsen, Aardmsa, the two prospects for Betancourt, etc. I don’t think he’s as concerned about replacing the pitchers sent out in this deal as he was landing a good SP and a great defensive SS. I know BA is blasphemy around here but Wilson is batting .267 compared to Cedeno’s pathetic .170. Isn’t Cedeno addition by subtraction? Am I off-base? And as good as Cedeno’s defense has been, Wilson’s is purely outstanding.
Sorry folks…but I LOVE watching Zduriencik work! But that’s just me.
LaHair has no trade value, every team has their own version of him. But, I guess people have to have a new player to irrationally overvalue now that Morse and Wlad are gone.
I still think it’s very likely that we’ll see Washburn go away in the next few days.
Can’t believe anyone who follows baseball (the game not the blogs) thinks this is a bad trade.
Have you guys seen Jack Wilson play?
What a fantastic trade. DC is way off the mark, according to Dave, we lost a guy who may, MAY be a 5 starter, a tall guy, and an an “interesting” arm???
For the best infielder in baseball and Ian Snell, who is the ultimate change of scenery guy. Ian Snell does not have an “interesting” arm, he has a major league, top of the rotation arm… and off field problems, ever hear of a guy called Zach Grienke? Same story….
Last week I got ripped here for saying I reserve judgement on Jack Z., but this is a steal for the Ms. Count me in on the Jack Z bandwagon!!!
The hit rate for low minors arms is very very low, if Pribanic and Adcock are wining games for the Bucs in two years, great, but thats a crap shoot.
Ugh damn that wasn’t a pretty start to the 7th….
I like this trade with the Pirates, but with a considerable reservation.
The key to this deal on our side is Ian Snell. If he pitches up to the quality of his stuff, I’d say he can be a legitimate #3 or #4 starter…in other words, a potential first-rate stabilizer of the rotation’s back-end. I love the fact he’s 27, and under club control for years.
But I worry about a guy who made it very clear that he’d given up on his major-league club, had no interest in playing for them.
You can’t do that without quitting on your teammates, too.
And as a side-question, how does Jack Wilson feel about playing with this guy now?
Say what you will about Wilson’s well-documented flaws offensively, but the guy will get his shirt dirty and dirtier for you as a teammate.
I don’t know what Snell’s beef with Pittsburgh was (although it must be said the general atmosphere there probably lent to a number of grievances), but it seemed his exile in Indy was a largely self-imposed one.
What kind of teammate are the M’s getting who takes his ball and goes home when things with the club aren’t going his way?
If we struggle the rest of this year and much of 2010…does Ian Snell quit on us, too?
Pittsburgh is still the major leagues, I have to wonder about a player who openly says he wants to remain in AAA rather than do what he can to help his admittedly bad major-league team out.
Jack Wilson, we know what we’re getting with him.
And I figure he’s got to be the happiest guy involved in this trade.
I personally like the idea of him getting flipped for a younger, cheaper guy in another trade…but the bottom line is that we’ve made an upgrade at shortstop, no matter what- that everybody in the whole free world knew we needed.
As for what we gave up? To borrow someone’s catch-word: Meh. I think the price tag may not be quite so high as what some may think.
Clement’s lack of future with us was as much a non-secret as Snell’s lack of future with the Buccos. In order to make room for the shot you want to give Adam Moore, Clement had to go.
I think Cedeno’s a born reserve middle-infielder with an oh-so-light stick and a good attitude. As for Lorin, he’s the piece I’ll miss the most- and the piece I predict we’ll miss the most.
But I had no more than “wait and see if he does something” feelings about both Pribanic and Adcock.
As for the depletion of arms to watch in A-ball, there are plenty of 2009 draftees that will get ample opportunity to fill those slots.
And Brandon Morrow, Danny Cortes, Josh Fields, Phillippe Aumont and Nick Hill remain untouched in the higher minors (for now, anyway).
And still in A-ball are JC Ramirez and Michael Pineda. Both of whom probably have better ceilings than Adcock and Pribanic. Add in the likes of Maikel Cleto (not sure where he is, I’d have to look up his MiLB page)and I’d say the system isn’t completely stripped.
Annnnnnnnnnnnd you still have a chance to replenish the arms you lost (to some degree) by trading Jarrod Washburn, Russ Branyan, David Aardsma.
Bottom line to me: if Snell becomes the mid-rotation starter I believe he can be, then we win this trade.
If not, then it’s basically a wash of some parts we had to part with, anyway.
I love how the M’s are getting exactly $3,308,702.19. I want to make sure they count those nineteen cents.
I am sure Zman checked out those 3 minor league pitchers and has decided they have mediocre futures. In Jack I trust.
Ok, sometimes I disagree with Dave’s assessment on things, but at least he forms arguments with some level of rationality.
Then I stumble onto this article. Hoo boy, how on earth does this guy have privileges to author blog posts?
Dave, an open request — please light this guy up like a christmas tree.
I second that open request on lighting up that guy. What a smug, assuming little twit.
His last name isn’t in my good graces, either.
While I was at first a bit shocked that the M’s gave up three pitching prospects, I think part of the reasoning may be that the team only has so many 40-man spots and somewhere down the line they may not be able to control all these players.
Since Lorin, Adcock and Pribanic were all 3 or 4 years away it seems, that would put them roughly on track to need to be added to the 40-man roster around the same time (or within a year of) the time that players from this year’s draft would need to be added.
Typically a team doesn’t add much more than 6 or 7 guys in any one season (and it’s usually less). Just another reason why Jack Z might have willing to overpay (in addition to having the Pirates pay everything but the minimum on Snell and Wilson for ‘09).
I think Z has confidence in his ability to replenish the M’s minor league pitching depth, especially when you’re talking about three guys from the low minors who weren’t considered top prospects. Snell is a risk but one worth taking, IMO, and once Beltre returns the left-side of the M’s infield defense will match the OF defense. If they can get Beltre re-signed for next year that will be fun to watch in 2010.
Did you guys read the comments after that article? Oh, he got lit up…royally!!
Aren’t we also forgetting the other pitcher we got in the Betancourt trade, Derrick Saito? Sounds like he has promise as well. Z has restocked the system pretty well, actually…and with better arms it would seem.