Luke French
It’s no secret that we wanted Washburn traded and had little to no interest in retaining him for 2010. So, if the M’s moved him, we were going to be happy, even if the guys they got back weren’t much to write home about. But should you be excited about Luke French?
Depends on your expectations. He has extremely low ceiling for a 23-year-old – as a guy with an 87 MPH fastball who pitches up in the zone and depends on his breaking ball to get outs, he’s not that much different than Garrett Olson in terms of raw stuff. And I know that most of you are sick and tired of watching Garrett Olson take the mound, so that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.
However, there’s a pretty big difference between the two – French can actually get right-handed hitters out. Olson’s problem as a starter is that he gets destroyed by RHBs, and opposing managers can just stack the line-up with them when he’s in the rotation. French, however, uses his change-up effectively to keep RHBs off balance – he actually ran a better BB/9 and K/9 against righties than lefties in Triple-A this year.
That won’t continue in the majors (and it hasn’t during his first few appearances), but he’s not totally hopeless against RHBs. As an exteme flyball lefty, he’s going to get the same bump from Safeco and the outfield defense that Washburn did, and while he doesn’t have as varied of an arsenal, there are reasons to expect French and Washburn to be near equals going forward.
Between French, Rowland-Smith, Vargas, and Olson, the M’s now have four LHPs who all take advantage of the cavernous left field area in Safeco Field. Odds are they’ll be able to get two quality starters out of that group, and with Felix/Snell/Morrow around, the team has options for the front of the rotation as well.
French will probably never be an all-star, but as more depth for the back-end of the rotation, and a guy who should benefit greatly from the context he’s coming to, you should be quite happy with the return.
So the M’s essentially traded 1/2 a year of Washburn for 6 years of club control on Young Washburn — and they’re paying over the next six years (before arbitration) about what they’d pay Washburn for the last two months of his contract.
Sounds like he’ll be essentially Rowland-Smith with more innings and more fly balls. Or a correctly-priced Carlos Silva who can get RHs out and is less likely to whine to Geoff Baker.
Works for me.
Wholeheartedly agree, thanks Dave.
Yeah, I’m stoked. This is a guy we were just hoping we could get rid of on waivers last year, and we ended up with two interesting pieces.
I was already pumping after taking a 5 Hour Energy, but now the blood is really flowing.
I don’t care if these two end up as #5 starters or long relievers. We got some value in return, instead of sitting here worrying abut how the deadline would hose our future anymore.
Huzzah to our awesome front office.
Of course, Carlos Silva couldn’t get anyone out, so yeah, that’s not a good comparison.
RRS has better stuff than French. The new guy is more of a Vargas/Olson type.
In the immortal words of Malcolm Reynolds: Shiny!
So, we’ve established that French can hold down a rotation spot and not embarrass himself or the team. That’s good. And he comes with a free frogurt!
So, can we ask about the frogurt? Specifically, what should M’s fans expect out of Robles? My first impression, from reading around, is that he’s at least a major league LOOGY, if not a starter, but he’s ~3 years away. Is that a good take?
Dear Jack,
Love what you’re doing… now go get us a BAT! If we are going to create a “positive working environment” for our young pitchers, we need to offer them a little more run support than what we have unfortunately become accustomed to this year. In other words, package up Morrow, Rob Johnson, and one other to make a strong pitch for Adrian Gonzalez. 27 years old — packs a punch — and is used to being “The Guy!” We need someone who relishes that role — and he could be our cleanup guy for the next 7 or 8 years. Ackley/Gillies can find the roster soon enough in left field — Branyan could move where he belongs (which is DH) since he is a bit of a liability in the field — and we would have a decent lineup for a change next season.
Ichiro
Jose Lopez
Adrian Gonzalez
Russell Branyan
Adrian Beltre
Franklin Gutierrez
New Catcher Please!
Jack Wilson
Tyson Gillies/Dustin Ackley/Michael Saunders (Let them have an open competition for the job in the Spring. Don’t be afraid to bring them up and let them play — The Yankees have done fine with some of those young guys getting a shot — as long as they aren’t asked to do too much too early. Gillies is an interesting 9 hitting, as he can fly — having him bat in front of Ichiro and track down balls in left is a tad bit enticing.
Anyhow… you get the picture… a bat like Gonzalez would do wonders for the lineup — and the fact that he is a mature 27 year old — just coming into the prime of his career — Go get him and lock him in — And give up Morrow, Johnson and Lowe if you have to… We will finally have a Major League batting lineup for the first time in a few years — and our young pitchers will be the beneficiaries.
Let’s hope he leans toward ‘Vargas type’ than ‘Olson type’.
But, great move regardless. Something for nothing.
The Famous Jackie Z.
Between French, Rowland-Smith, Vargas, and Olson, the M’s now have four LHPs who all take advantage of the cavernous left field area in Safeco Field. Odds are they’ll be able to get two quality starters out of that group, and with Felix/Snell/Morrow around, the team has options for the front of the rotation as well.
Agree 100%. But throw in Silva and Bedard as additional possibilities for next year.
Great analysis, Dave.
When I heard we got Luke French in return…my first reaction was…I wonder if he’s related to Steve French.
Only fellow Trailer Park Boys fans will have a clue who I’m talking about though.
Good Luck in Detroit Jarrod. Hope you like their catchers as much as you liked ours…
I’m starting to think that extending Bedard, or at least offering him arbitration, is making more and more sense. Yeah, he’s pretty much a lock to spend half the season on the DL. But when he’s with your team and pitching well, he’s one of the top starters in baseball.
If you get 100 innings out of him, you’ve done okay. If you get lucky and get 200 innings out of him, then you’re doing awesome.
And if not, then the M’s have guys like French who can step in and pitch at or above replacement level. French has the bonus of having minor league options left, so he doesn’t have to clear waivers on the way back down.
Bedard is a risk, but he’s a good risk. The kind of risk the M’s need to take to contend next year.
Any chance the M’s do a buyout on Silva after the season?
Love this deal that was made today!!!
Why would Silva take it?
I heard Brock & Salk mention something about Robles actually being the centerpiece of this trade. Did anyone else catch that?
Exactly. Until someone drowns him in Puget Sound, Silva will keep taking the M’s money.
LINK22, I’m on board with you on Gonzalez. I think they Padres would take a boatload of prospoects from us, but probably nobody we couldn’t live without (except maybe Morrow) and the upgrade of our lineup would be immeasureable. His contract is quite friendly through 2011 and we’d be getting his age 27-29 years. Make it happen Jack!
One can hope on the buyout.
But you guys are right, he won’t take it. Wonder if the M’s would consider him a sunk cost and cut him.
Dave wrote, “As an exteme flyball lefty…”
Looking at his stats from the past two years – in 2008 he pitched 178 minor league innings and had 1.39 GO/AO ratio. In 2009 he has a 1.13 GO/AO ratio in 81 minor league innings pitched. But at Detroit in his 29 innings his ratio is 0.37 GO/AO.
Should we label him an extreme flyball lefty based on his 29 major league innings? His minor league stats don’t seem to show it.
I couldn’t find if this had been talked about already, but what do you guys think the chances of Washburn accepting arbitration if the Tigers offer it? So maybe the Tigers gain a first round draft pick in this deal as well, to make it better for them.
I don’t really care that he won’t ever be an all-star or even close, I just hope he can turn out to be SOME value to this team in future years
Yes, that’s true (and Arm-Linc should get credit for that alongside Z — the former made sure the ammo was still available, and Z spent it on something worthwhile).
Of course, with the ~$9M they spent on Washburn between then and now, Z probably could’ve done something interesting too.
I’d love to see where those numbers came from.
No other excitement?
Aardsma
Branyan
Lowe
All staying put?
Looking like that, marinerdan. I am still hoping for some late news.
It’s important to realize that 1pm PST is just the deadline for paperwork to be submitted to the commissioner’s office. We could hear about more moves later in the day.
But it’s not impossible that we’re done, and if we are, it’s still a pretty darn successful July 31st.
Shannon Drayer implied that there may be something else that may slip out in the next few minutes
Let it be so!
Please let it be a good trade if one does leak out.
All in all I’m satisfied with the direction the team is going. I think the M’s are in a better position than they were a few weeks ago. We’ve shored up the SS position through next year and have more young MLB ready pitching available for both the rotation and bullpen. And we did it by dealing players who didn’t really fit into the M’s future plans or were low minors guys who weren’t top shelf prospects.
I bet you Brandon Morrow is next. . .
That’s the filthiest thing I have heard a woman say in quite some time.
Morrow next?
Good thing Jack and company don’t let emotion dictate their decision making. He’s still got a ton of promise.
I wouldn’t call Snell and Morrow TOR guys.
Clearly Felix is #1, but Morrow is a project, who knows how Snell will do when he comes back to the big leagues.
At this point I’d have Felix at #1, R-R Smith at #3, Snell at #4 and French at #5.
Bedard definitely isn’t capable of being a #2 starter due to his health and who knows how long it will take for Morrow to develop into a solid, starting pitcher in this league.
I’d just package him and Lopez in a deal this winter (especially if we bring back Beltre) and see what you can get.
I’m still just in love with the fact that our FO seems to have a master plan, and they are confident in it. I never got that feeling with the previous regime – it always seemed so year-to-year and so reactionary.
Bavasi would say “I want a #1 type starter!” Or fill in your own “…(adjective) (adjective) (noun)! That will make us a playoff team!”
Zdurencik says “I want to add talent. That will win us a World Series.”
And of course, I could see R-R Smith and Snell swapping places in the rotation.
The only thing that would have made this trade better for me is if they had packaged Johjima in the deal as well….
That would have made my day….
Looking at his stats from the past two years – in 2008 he pitched 178 minor league innings and had 1.39 GO/AO ratio. In 2009 he has a 1.13 GO/AO ratio in 81 minor league innings pitched. But at Detroit in his 29 innings his ratio is 0.37 GO/AO.
I’d love to see where those numbers came from.
milb.com – Here
You can see French’s 2008 numbers here
and 2009 here
I thought he was a flyballer too, but maybe he’s not.
Peavy to Chicago…any other news on our guys getting traded?
Thanks guys
How the $%#@ does anyone get any work done today? I’ve been hitting refresh on so many blogs and websites today (of course taking it easy on USSM’s servers) that my finger is about to fall off.
Same here.
Actual GB%/FB%/LD% for French 2007-2009 are here in the batted balls tab.
No kidding, I picked up Shoppach in my fantasy league so fast after I heard V-Mart got traded that I got motion sickness.
Where is Adrian Gonzalez? I haven’t seen anything on him either staying or going.
Trading Washburn is a step backwards, and typical of Seattle: get rid of quality to get “an if, many ifs”. A team to even make it to the playoffs and survive needs veterans. Jack seems to be stock piling talent in the hope that one or two of them might pan out. It’s a risk. The Angels would never make such a trade, nor Yanks, nor Red Sox, only Seattle–save money, put a nice mediocre team on the field–year after year. Still an M’s fan though
If you think keeping Washburn around and signing him to an extension is a good idea, you must be Bill Bavasi.
We’re not winning the division. Washburn’s contract is up at the end of the season and could walk for nothing. We got value. It’s a step forward.
No, a team needs talented players to make it to the playoffs.
Sure is!
Those three teams have legitimate chances to make the playoffs in 2009. So, they don’t have any incentive to deal their contributing expiring contracts. The M’s ownership has been more than generous with their payroll budgets over the years. Zduriencik has been here for a matter of months. Give the man some time.
By the way, Zduriencik will be on with Kevin Calabro at 3:10 pm on 710 ESPN.
curveballee, your idea of how to build a roster seems eerily similar to the methodology of one Bill Bavasi
Yeah, I know. Because just like the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox, the M’s would be in the playoffs if they started today.
No, not Bavasi. I just like quality. And Washburn is a quality pitcher. Remember he rarely got run support in Seattle. Also, you win pennant races with quality, and unfortunately one has to pay dollars for it, and then hope the minor league system produces a few gems. Name one of the pitchers the M’s have picked up lately that will out pitch Washburn the next two seasons. (assuming health etc.) You’re buying into more of the same mediocrity. M’s will always be around 500 unless they go out and get selective proven talent.
I tell you. It’s the same old story, just different characters. We’ll see what Jaack does next year. If he gets a bat or two, which is what we really need, then we’ll see.
Luke French
The fact that Washburn never got run support is irrelevant to our opinion of him as a pitcher, because we’re not judging him as a pitcher on the basis of his won-lost record. We’re judging him on things like his ability to strike batters out (poor) and his batted-ball profile (not good), and the fact that his success this season is far more due to his home park, the good fielders that Zduriencik and Wakamatsu have put behind him, and luck than it is to his own ability.
No, he’s not a “quality pitcher” — he’s a mediocre guy pitching over his head. Nothing to get excited about — and, when you consider how much he costs, nobody to build on going forward, either.
[spelling]
curveballlee.. The M’s are NOT making the playoffs this year, with or without Washburn. Therefore, his last two months to US is essentially worthless. So we traded two months of nothing for an excellent prospect in Robles, and a near clone (style-wise) of the guy you gave up. Except he is only 23 and under team control on the CHEAP for the next 6 years. AND, you can sign Washburn as a FA (if you want) next year, when this team will actually have a legitimate chance to compete for the division.
I do not see why ANYONE could think of this trade as anything but a complete success.
You’re wrong on Washburn’s quality. Just ask the Tigers, a quality franchise.
You know what’s the same old story? The same tired demand for “proven” (ie old and overpriced) talent. The same obsession with big bats. The same demand to spend top dollars. The Yankees have been spending top dollars, and what has that bought them? The closest thing Tampa Bay had to “proven talent” was Erick Hinske, and somehow they managed to get to the World Series.
There are lots of ways to win, and going out and spending big bucks on “proven talent” is not the only way to do it (and it’s not guaranteed to work, either). But it is definitely the most expensive, least efficient way to attempt it.
Although the Rockies sure seemed to get some decent mileage out of rookies like Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales during their ‘07 pennant stretch.
curveballlee: So you are saying it would be better to NOT have Jeff French (reasonable 4th-5th starter for cheap for 6 years?), and a solid A prospect, than to have them? Because thats basically the decision here.
In 2 months, Washburn is a free agent. We get nothing. We cant offer him arbitration because then we’d have to pay him $12 million+ for a year. We could keep him and try to re-sign him next year, but we’d have to pay him what he is worth, the money could go to Washburn or to some other equivalent pitcher.
The choice is: Keep washburn and have him for 2 months of a season where we are essentially out of it, or trade him to a contender and build our future. Nothing vs Prospects…you take prospects.
What is it about jephdood’s explanation that is so difficult to understand?
There are better bats to be had this offseason in FA than pitchers. And remember our offense would look alot better had Beltre not missed the last month.
Seems like we have alot of candidates for the back end of the rotation
Jephdood
I’m aware of your point. But still you pay the “cheap” chances are you get the “cheap”. Also, Robles will probably never see a major league roster. There are few 5′10″ 170lb starters in MLB. Mostly because of physics. You figure it out.
Luke French may work out. But you can’t compare him at this point to Washburn. He hasn’t pitched enough on the big stage.
@curveballlee -
Most of those guys were Bavasi’s moves…though not Cirillo. He came in under Gillick’s watch.
How many championships do the yankees have? Now Seattle?
I like the trade for many of the reasons stated here. I also like what was visibile from the FO. Dave mentioned the lack of leaks from management, Baker and others commented on the poker-table skills (calculated leaks?). I think it all points to a professionally-run organization. Not everyone is going to like everything that’s done, or not done, and we’ll debate those things, but I think the people actually pulling the trigger on things are thinking about the right things. Real change. And Z makes a lot of sense talking on the radio.
Even if Washburn were legitiately an Ace, and completely deserving of his shiny ERA, you still have to trade him because youre not making the playoffs and you lose control of him at the end of the year, so you need to get value.
In reality, he isnt an Ace, he is a decent pitcher who is aided by a great defense, large left field, and lucky home run rate on flyballs, which make him look great instead of average.
Possible starters next year;
RH Felix
Snell
Silva
Morrow
Gabby Hernandez
LH Hyphen
French
Vargas
Olson
?Bedard
The depth Jack Z is putting together cannot be questioned and we have the true ace in Felix thats needed to advance in the playoffs. If the first nine months of the Z administration is going to be the norm the M’s are in good hands for years to come.
Quite a convincing argument. You’ve really turned me around on this issue.
Ragardless of how “quality” you think Washburn is (and he’s not), he most definitely is old. He’s having a good year and also (as predicted here in the offseason) benefiting from his outfield defense. For a team making a playoff run with a cavernous home park and a good outfield defense, he’s fine — that describes Detroit, and it described Seattle until last weekend. He’s an innings eater, but nobody — not even Detroit — mistakes him for an ace (which would be my definition of “quality”). So he’s fine for a team in Detroit’s position, especially if — as is apparently the case there — you overvalue “experience” and want that for the postseason.
But he’s a rental, and there’s no certainty he’s even going to be back next year. Detroit won’t be getting any draft picks for him, and probably won’t re-sign him. They gave up a couple of very cheap guys with upside to get him. They want to win now, so that’s a fair deal for them; Seattle wasn’t going to the playoffs, so getting some future upside for a guy that was going to be gone at the end of the year (and was almost gone for nothing last year) is a good deal for Seattle.
Washburn’s “quality” wasn’t going to make any difference to Seattle this year, and was evaporating after that, so turning him into prospects is a smart move — and very much atypical of the Mariners until this year. This is not the same old Mariners. At all.
Drayer tweets: Snell to start sunday for the ms
curveballleee I can think of two starters who have a simillar body type to Robles, Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum but they shouldn’t amount to much judging by their stature.
I kinda wish Snell’s first start was in Seattle or at least not Texas, but his bullpen session must have gone well.
Looks like French couldn’t get there in time, then. Sunday would have been his normal rotation.
Like Bedard?
Even worse, we paid an awesome CF and the newly aqcuired set-up man for power house Dodgers and a handful of other young talent for a guy who has gotten us to the playoffs zero times.
Looks like French couldn’t get there in time, then. Sunday would have been his normal rotation.
Partly that, but arguably you would rather use Snell in the Arlington bandbox anyway.
Snell may turn out to be a “quality” pitcher that didn’t require top dollars because Zduriencik picked him up at the nadir of his value.
Every time I write “quality” I wish everybody would just go (re-)read “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” so we can just stop with that word.
On another note: Did anybody catch Calabro’s interview with Zduriencik around 3:10? Salk was promoting it earlier, but I wasn’t able to listen.
Question: [off topic]
I read this twice, and I think maybe I understand what it is trying to say.
If I’m right, I disagree.
You get cheap talent anywhere you can get it, then you will have osme money left over to add or extend a more expensive veteran.
No.
Zip.
I’m still wondering if the M’s can trade Silva to a Les Schwab store for a set of new tires and a side of beef.
I sense a new resident in the mod queue soon.
Snell is probably the better pitcher, plus he’s been here long enough to pitch in front of the M’s on a normal throw day. And if you go by Salk’s opinion of Wak (aka The Dog Whisperer), getting a guy going through some head issues under Wak’s wing might be a really good idea.
But I would bet on French taking Olson’s spot on, what, Tuesday?
I just heard Zduriencik interviewed on the MLB Network. Nothing really groundbreaking other than saying he liked what he saw in French and that Robles was a promising prospect. When asked what his philosophy was he said “obtaining talent.”
“Obtaining talent”
I think it is safe to say that Jack Z is head and shoulders above any GM the M’s have had. The trades he has made from Betancourt on have amazed me and I’m more enthusiastic about the Mariners than anytime since the Griffey, Martinez, Buhner and Johnson nucleus was in it’s heyday.
Lots of talk about how, after Felix, we just have a bunch of prospects for the rest of the rotation (Snell, French, RRS, Olson, Vargas, Morrow). It made me think about the following. Over the last few years, the M’s have acquired, either through expensive FA contracts or trades costing very good players, four experienced starting pitchers: Washburn, Batista, Silva and Bedard.
Bedard has spent half his time on the DL. Batista gave us one decent season then fell apart and is in the bullpen reminded us of guys named Ayala and Slocumb. Silva gave us one good month and then, well, best not to speak of what came next. Washburn is having a good year, but to get that good year we first had to go through three years of mediocre-at-best performance paid for at ace pitcher rates.
Starting Pitchers have high attrition rates. Prospects, vetrans, journeymen, they all have high attrition rates. Stacking up a bunch of “maybe” guys seems like a good strategy. Some will flame out, some will come through, but by getting them cheap, we can afford to get enough of them that the odds are we’ll get some quality arms in the rotation.
Silva can be bought out for about $31M, ie the remaining value of his contract. He would then be free to go and pitch elsewhere (and the M’s would get about $400K off for each year that he does). Though it’s hard to believe, I’m sure some team would give him a shot if it just cost them the pro-rated league minimum.
I started to laugh at the amusing obviousness of that and then stopped when I realized how much trouble Bavasi had with it.
Does it seem like this trade deadline was more active than past years? I’m not just talking about he M’s, which was obviously spectacularly active vs some other summers, but just all around the league — you have a Cy Young winner switching teams, the Pirates selling off everybody (and the Indians coming close), Boston flipping backup first base men and acquiring a catcher, a lot of interesting moves by teams as diverse as the Dodgers and the Twins.
I think Silva already ate the side of beef.
JMHawkins – you can add to that list Jeff Weaver and Horatio Rameriz – Experienced, previously successful pitchers that cost a lot in $’s or players or both to acquire.
Lynn Herring from Detroit said much the same things as Joser above; that Wash is the classic rental; Detroit got him just so they didn’t have to rely heavily on French & Porcello in the last months, and that they’ll have no interest in re-signing him, as next year they will have better, cheaper options for the rotation.
I’ve started referring to him as “the hemorrhage” as he seem to hemorrhage runs every time he takes the mound.
Here’s hoping that French isn’t quite as bad.
The old teenage me would have been pissed off we traded Wash, and still graspng onto the hopes of making the playoff this season. The current 21 year old me couldn’t be happier we at least got something in return. We definitely aren’t contending this year and probably won’t next year, but the minor and young major league talent and depth Jack has acquired in his first months here is extraordinary. I won’t speak for everyone, but some people seem, even while realizing the progress the new admin has made, that it has taken an extremely short time to make a huge amount of progress. While some of these moves won’t pay dividends, the ones that do will be worth “giving up” on this year and having to possibly endure another (re-) building season next year.
And a side note, I’ve always wanted the Mariners to field one of those teams like the old Marlins and ‘07 Rays that were full of a bunch of unknown names (to the casual fan) that then goes on to shock the baseball world. Those teams prove that names aren’t what matters, it’s talent and baseball business acumen. We seem to be quickly building up on both.
And please will one of the admins tell everyone to punctuate quotes like this: .” and not this: “. Don’t know if that bothers anyone else…
^typos due to it being difficult to revise on the new iPhone interface.
Yeah, the difference between fans and a (good) GM is the difference between hot-blooded, never-say-die optimism and cold-hearted, eye-on-the-numbers realism.
You’re not much of a fan if you don’t think the team still has a chance almost until the end; you’re not much of a GM if act as if that was true. One operates in spite of the evidence, the other operates in light of it.
How many championships do the yankees have?
In the 21st century? Just as many as Seattle — zero.
They do have a rich history, though. They’ve lost the World Series an MLB-leading 13 times.
Or, put another way: You can come up with a list of “The Ten Best World Series EVER!!!” — and in every single one, the Yankees lose.
(…and I’m not sure that’d be factually incorrect.)