Game 81, Mariners at Red Sox
Morrow vs Lester, 10:35 am.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Sweeney, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Langerhans, LF
Johjima, C
Woodward, 3B
Cedeno, SS
For all intents and purposes, Ryan Langerhans is the Mariners starting left fielder until further notice. This is the fourth game he’s started in a row, and the second of which the opposing pitcher has been left-handed. Wak has made it pretty clear that he just hasn’t been very impressed with Wladimir Balentien, and really, if Balentien can’t get into the line-up against a lefty in a day game before a cross country flight, then he’s basically out of the plan.
So, Langerhans looks like he’s going to get a real shot to prove what he can do. Welcome to the club, Ryan. Feel free to keep whacking the baseball as long as you’d like.
The value of showing up
“[Napoleon] had a two-part plan.â€
“What was it?â€
“First was show up. We’ll see what happens.â€
“That was his plan.â€
“Yup.â€
“Against the Russian army.â€
“Yup.â€
“First we show up, then we see what happens.â€
“Yup.â€
“Almost hard to believe he lost.”
— another Sports Night quote
The M’s are going to make like Napolean. And if they lose, it’ll still be the right play.
No matter the outcome tomorrow morning they’ll have pulled a win out of this road trip by staying in contention while playing the Yankees and Red Sox. In the last week, their playoff chances have dramatically improved. Looking at the AL East, it’s pretty clear the division title’s going to be the only way into the post-season dance, but the division title requires them to climb over two teams.
Dave’s talked a little in recent weeks about players the team can target (like Langerhans!) to improve their chances, and I want to take a little larger view here. With two teams at 43 wins already, for the M’s to take the pennant they’re going to need to bank 90 wins. There’s a chance at 85, sure. If the team does nothing, they can still luck into it. All they have to do is stay close. With Beltre out, though, their chance is probably 10%. To stay in the middle of the fray, and be able to take advantage of any opportunities if the other teams stumble, they will have to make some pickups before the trade deadline.
The great thing about the M’s as currently built is we can see how you get there.
Two things they have to do:
They need a shortstop. Gambling on a miraculous appearance of super-Yuni won’t do it. Dave suggested Jack Wilson, Nick Punto, and Reid Brignac in this post. Put someone average in there and you get another win at least in the second half. Put someone good in there… oh yeah.
They need a third baseman. I’m not betting on Beltre’s return this year, and crossing my fingers and wishing really hard isn’t going to help. I’m still all wished out on the illusory 2007 run at contention. If you’re willing to take a below-average glove, you go after the last year of Aubrey Huff’s deal, or see how far in the doghouse Garrett Atkins is. Or check pre-season USSM-suggested gamble Andy Marte, currently hitting .323/.363/.543 in Columbus) (and that I’m even throwing these out there is a measure of how wince-inducing this problem is).
And the problem here is if you’re trying to improve the team, you have to get to Beltre production to stay even. Which means they need to patch here and improve elsewhere.
How much do these upgrades cost? In some of these, taking on salary might make the cost in young talent much less. Jack Wilson’s being paid $7m this year, and while the team’s got a 2010 option, the Pirates are in last place (and making bad trades). Huff’s $8m in payroll. Atkins is on a one-year arbitration-avoiding deal for $7m. The M’s are still drawing, though not as well. Proving they’re in contention, particularly that they’re turning this thing around, might be hugely valuable in keeping the season ticket sales up for next year, when they can put back-to-back years together and show this isn’t a 2007-style luck-fest. It might make it worth trying even if they don’t make it into the playoffs, which is like hitting the jackpot.
And as Dave’s suggested, trading off Bedard or Washburn could hugely improve the team now and help not give up the players who might help contend in two or three years.
Then we have less-pressing needs. Jose Lopez isn’t helping, but finding an upgrade there may be too costly. They desperately need a right-handed DH platoon for Griffey, preferably one that can hit a little, because Sweeney has done nothing all year to give anyone reason to believe he can still play. You can fix that with Chris Shelton, or any number of other candidates. Sweeney’s by all accounts a great guy, but character’s not hitting and the offense sucks. If you can upgrade on Griffey, that’d be nice too, but he’s way down on the priority list.
The offense needs it. They’re not going to win a pennant with a .316 on-base percentage. And neither is Texas at .317. The AL average offense so far is scoring 4.8 runs a game and the M’s are at 4. The LAAoA are scoring over five. Even considering Safeco’s park effects, that’s too much. It’s almost like the M’s are spotting the other team a runner on third for the start of every game, all year long.
What’s particularly good about this is none of the holes they have to plug are hard to confront. It’s not like telling Ichiro! he can’t play any more, and Yuni and Lopez don’t have such large contracts there’ll be pressure to keep them out there.
So let’s say in July they find an average third baseman somewhere, an average shortstop, and a decent RH bat. The offense gets a little better, the defense gets a little better (swapping Beltre for an average glove, Yuni for an average glove), and the cost shouldn’t be too dear.
That’s showing up. Patch a couple holes, gut it out.
If they seriously want to make a push and target the division, the team has to get a lot better than even that. They need a good third baseman, a good shortstop, a good second baseman, a big DH upgrade, and they might look at a catcher. At the same time they’ll probably need to upgrade the starting rotation at least in one spot.
And the price tag there is potentially huge. We can argue about who you can throw in at each positions who might be adequate, but the list of players who can make enough of a difference in a half-season is a lot smaller, and most of those aren’t available at any reasonable cost. You can get Langerhans for Mike Morse, but David Wright doesn’t come for a hundred of them.
The team’s finally setting up for a long run at contention and this season’s success is only the first fruit. I’d love to see them get into the playoffs, but I’d much rather watch the team exercise patience, continue to improve, and make a legitimate run at a World Series win in the future. This year, I’m all for paying a small price to stay in this, rather than make the kind of mistakes we’ve seen the franchise make lately in chasing contention at so high a cost. And staying in it might prove enough.
Game 80, Mariners at Red Sox
Olson vs Penny, 10:05 am.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Langerhans, LF
Johjima, C
Woodward, 3B
Cedeno, SS
Game thread the second!
Assuming this game ever ends, FSN that Comcast Sportsnet NW channel will be broadcasting the Rainiers game! Televised PCL action! Called by Mike Curto! Seven-ish!
And if you somehow have never taken the chance to catch one of the broadcasts, perhaps because you’re allergic to radios, this will be your chance. Check it out.
Game 79, Mariners at Red Sox
4:10. Haaaaaaappy Felix Day! And everyone hopefully has the day off so you can watch!
Is there a cooler contrast in starters this year? Felix, young, ascending star, against Wakefield, much older, with an impressive career without the kind of sustained dominance that earns someone the “ace” designation. Felix has one of the best fastballs when he’s can control it effectively and loves to throw it, while Wakefield hardly ever throws a straight fastball, but does well with it, instead relying on a pitch he knows he can’t truly control.
I love watching Tim Wakefield pitch. I always have. If I don’t have anything else on MLB.tv I’m interested in that day and he’s pitching, I’ll always go for it. In a way, it’s like watching Ichiro: there’s no one else in the major leagues who makes their living in the same way these players do, and yet they’re among the best at what they do despite taking a much different approach. That’s fascinating.
And then Felix. You have to love watching Felix.
The end of the all-righthanded bullpen
Shawn Kelley has been activated from the disabled list, and Mike Carp is headed back to Tacoma. What’s that got to do with the title, you ask? Well, for one thing, getting Kelley back is a good thing, because not only was he one of the best relievers in the bullpen, but he was perhaps the best option against lefthanded batters in the late innings. Which is important in a bullpen that lacks a lefty specialist, and the solutions contemplated at the beginning of the year (Tyler Johnson, Cesar Jimenez) aren’t going to materialize.
More importantly, though, this is the beginning of a series of moves we’ll see leading up to the All-Star break that will reorganize the pitching staff. First, it takes us back to the 7-man bullpen. That’s not a great thing, but when you only have two starters who will reliably give you innings, it’s understandable. Bedard’s health and stamina when he comes back, Morrow’s ongoing development and lack of command, and the #5 spot will mean extra work for the relievers. Bedard’s return will also push out one of the extra starters, presumably Olson who’s better suited in relief anyway, thus finally giving Wakamatsu a lefthander out of the pen. Roy Corcoran should be the odd man out, since he’s not being used, still isn’t fixed, and duplicates what Sean White gives you anyway. Rowland-Smith is in a holding pattern in Tacoma trying to sort things out while we wait to see if one of the starters gets traded.
For Carp, this is the right thing to do. As much as his batting approach was a breath of fresh air here, he could still use some time to work on things at AAA, and with Branyan and Griffey blocking all lefthanded hitters at 1B and DH, he’s just not going to get playing time. It would be nice to have an extra guy on the bench, but for now the roster mostly needs the interchangeable infielders to plug in until those gaping holes can be addressed for real.
Mariners Sign Pimentel
When it comes to international business, the M’s [almost] always get their man. Larry Stone proves that point with reports that the Mariners have signed 16-year-old Dominican OF Guillermo Pimentel, at a figure of about $2 million. Unlike last year’s big signing in CF Julio Morban, who was recently demoted to Peoria, Pimentel is more of a power hitter with a less refined, though still relatively good approach. He’s listed as a CF right now, but a move to left is probably due in the future, since he lacks foot speed and a premium arm. The Mariners had been linked with Pimentel since March, and got him despite a rumored effort by the Rangers to scoop him up.
News on OF Alexis Parma, the toolsy Venezuelan outfielder they were previously linked to, has yet to come out, but these things often take a few days to get through the wires. Pimentel, for example, signed yesterday and we’re only now getting wind of it. The Mariners will likely get a press release out in the coming weeks, or BA will get the lists and I’ll relay what I’ve heard. That would likely include the signings of Korean prospects 3B/C Choi Ji-man and RHP Kim Sun-ki for about $1 million total. Seattle would like to pick up one of the interesting shortstops that are around, but other teams have a head start on them there. This year’s market lacks quality pitching, so don’t expect any J.C. Ramirez/Francisco Valdivia-type acquisitions.
I’m Running Out Of Words
So, instead, I’ll just present a picture.
Franklin Gutierrez, All-Star. It won’t happen, but you could make a pretty good argument that it should.
Game 78, Mariners at Yankees
The debut of Langerhans! Vargas v. Sabathia, 4:05.
RF-L Ichiro
1B-L Branyan
2B-R Lopez
DH-R Sweeney
CF-R Gutierrez
C-R Johjima
LF-L Guy who was once traded for Snelling
3B-R Woodward
SS-R Cedeno
As slightly weird as it is to break Langerhans in against the lefthander, two things. His statistics don’t seem to indicate much of a platoon split (even doing a bit better against lefties in the majors, slightly worse in the minors, for what those sample sizes are worth). And in terms of lineup construction, it’s still nice to break up that string of righthanded bats that mostly share similar weaknesses and are easily neutralized by a properly deployed bullpen.
Sell High On Mark Lowe?
We’ve talked the Washburn/Bedard trade possibilities to death. However, the most interesting story surrounding the team right now is what they’re going to do in the next month to re-shape the roster for the rest of 2009 and beyond. Those two aren’t the only ones they’ll have to make decisions on, however. I’d like to suggest that now might be a great time for the organization to consider trading Mark Lowe.
Every year, there are teams out there pursuing relief pitching at the deadline. This year is no different, with Colorado, Minnesota, Detroit, Philadelphia, Texas, Florida, and both Los Angeles teams looking to pick up a relief arm to bolster their chances for a playoff run. On the flip side, the M’s have bullpen depth, thanks to the breakout of David Aardsma and the impending return of Shawn Kelley, plus the expected 2010 arrival of Phillippe Aumont and Josh Fields.
Given the way the market is shaping up, I’d like to suggest that the team make Mark Lowe available for offers. He has a lot of things going for him that would make him an attractive trade piece – He’s just 26 years old, makes the league minimum and isn’t eligible for free agency for four more years, has a sparkly 3.28 ERA, and his 96.2 MPH average fastball is the fifth fastest in baseball.
To teams looking for bullpen help, Lowe should have significant appeal. He doesn’t come with a prohibitive contract. He isn’t a rental player. His velocity suggests closer potential. And, in the stat that still dominates how people perceive pitching quality, he’s doing well already.
Of course, we’ll just have to hope they don’t notice that Lowe isn’t actually pitching all that well. While his strikeout rate continues a disturbing nosedive, his walk rate is still above four, and he’s giving up more fly balls than ever. His 3.60 FIP is deflated by the fact that only 2 of his 38 fly balls have left the yard. In addition, Lowe has basically stopped throwing his change-up, which has made him ineffective against left-handed hitters.
Lowe isn’t a bad reliever, but he’s not a particularly good one either. There’s potential there for more, but for whatever reason, he’s regressing instead of getting better. As a guy who has found his velocity again after recovering from arm surgery, you’d like to see improvement in his strikeout rate, but we’re getting the opposite from Lowe.
He might still put it all together, and there is potential in a guy with a 96 MPH fastball and the ability to throw two secondary pitches. But if you’re looking for a guy who could probably bring back more in trade than he’s worth, Mark Lowe would be a prime candidate.
The last time Jack traded an overvalued relief pitcher, it worked out pretty well for us, I’d say. We’re not going to get the next Franklin Gutierrez for Mark Lowe, but I’d bet he could fetch a pretty interesting player. More interesting than a right-handed relief pitcher with a strikeout rate headed the wrong way, anyway.