Lopez’s Power
Dave · August 20, 2009 at 4:35 pm · Filed Under Mariners
I’m not saying Jose Lopez is a pull hitter, but…
Today’s HR isn’t included in that chart yet, but I’ll give you one guess where it went.
Also, fun fact – Lopez doesn’t have a single home run that has traveled 400+ feet. Russell Branyan only has six that have traveled less than 400 feet.
That is amazing. And going back over the past years Lopez has only 2 HRs in his career that weren’t yanked down the line.
Doesn’t that kind of dead pull “power” with shortwer distance strongly suggest that he doesn’t have near the power he’s reputed to or that his HR totals suggest?
Since when is Lopez reputed to have power? 60 dingers in almost 3,000 PAs doesn’t say “power” to me.
Lopez is continuing to hit more fly balls than grounders this year, something I pointed out earlier. He’s also swinging more often in general, which suggests to me that he’s changed his approach.
…not that I could hit six HRs in 30,000 PAs. Or one. But then, I don’t make even league minimum.
Well it strongly suggests he should be playing half his games somewhere other than Safeco (for players that like to kiss the left-field foul pole, only Wrigley is worse). Might I suggest Houston or Denver?
Wait, when was Lopez “reputed” to have power?
Lopez is a second baseman with an almost neutral uzr, slugging 450, making only 1.6 million. I don’t understand the Lopez haters. I’m not suggesting that pointing out where his homers go is hating, but there has been a lot of hating on Lopez over the past few years in the Mariners’ blogosphere, and I don’t think it’s warranted.
He’s a below average player who does a lot of stupid stuff. Those kind of guys aren’t going to endear themselves to many fans.
This post really has no meaning. Lopez is not a power guy. If he happens to turn on one, cool. That’s usually where people who don’t really have gobs of power hit ‘em.
I’m sure there’s more relavent criteria to hate on the dude. Have you exhausted them all?
Yeah, he’s kind of a goof defensively.. and he could get on base at a better clip.. but I don’t think (especially at the dollars) he’s a total flub on this roster.
While sabermetric types would understand his true value, is Lopez the kind of player who could be overvalued by other front offices? They see decent avg, some power and team leading RBI’s from the 2B spot and possibly overvalue him? I ask because I have wondered if he might be someone Z looks to move not because he is a poor player, but due to the return he might get from the Sabean’s and Krivsky’s of the world . . .
Good thing you don’t get extra runs for those longer home runs.
I’m not sure that if that was snark or not, but distance is a decent indicator of true, repeatable power. Lopez could hit ~20 homers this year and I wouldn’t ever think of him as having ‘power’. ‘Pop’, maybe.
Ergo Lopez is nothing more than a very average Major League 2nd baseman.
Seriously though… we all knew Lopez was no Jeter at the dish. I’d be surprised if he was wearing an M’s uni next year… mostly due to his defensive liabilities and inability to draw walks.
Speaking of homerun distance. Hittracker lists the average standard distance of Branyan’s homers as 414.2 feet. Wow.
Lopez isn’t a great match for Safeco (RH pull hitter with no power outside of LF is pretty much the worst KIND of hitter I could think of for Safeco), and I suspect Zduriencik has figured this out by now. Some team with a better park for that kind of hitter will want a 2B in the offseason, and with luck Zduriencik will do his usual thing and get nifty pieces back in trade, and Lopez will go on to do his ~2 WAR thing somewhere else.
Meh. At least he’s not the Yuni-esque trainwreck he was looking to be in the early season.
I would be interested to know how many of those HR’s came on fastballs. Lopez has driven in a fair amount of runs this given his opportunities… any relation to seeing lots of fastballs?
Dave posts an interesting fact — the only claim he makes here about Lopez is that he’s an extreme pull hitter, oh and he doesn’t hit balls as far as Branyan — and for some reason several people are quick to equate this with “hating,”
I have noticed there’s a strange, sad psychology shared by the people who are quickest to throw out the “hater” term. They don’t seem willing, or perhaps able, to make any sort of coherent counter-argument. (Taking refuge in some vague pejorative certainly doesn’t qualify.)
Lopez has gone from promising to disappointing in three years. That’s not hating, that’s a fact. And facts can be interesting and worth a post, whether it’s something important like evaluating pitching and the value of defense, or something trivial like the location of all of Jose’s home runs.
I can’t locate pitch f/x for ’09, but maybe if you email Josh Kalk and ask really nice he’ll let you know. =)
Here is the data from last season. Seven of Lopez’s homeruns in ’08 came on fastballs. The data is incomplete. Not every park was set up for pitch f/x I think.
It’s too bad Kaz Matsui is still under contract through 2010, because Lopez would be a younger, cheaper upgrade for the Astros (and Minute Maid would be a better fit for his swing), especially if Ed Wade didn’t notice his defensive liabilities.
And, I might add I don’t know what percentage of homeruns are hit off fastballs.
Can we get a spray chart for ALL his hits and compare that with the MLB average? NOT just for HRs?
Just because every ball he hits out is pulled doesn’t label him a “pull hitter”
Maybe that’s a well-reasoned analysis, but it’s not a fact.
Sorry, I can’t resist:
Charlie Mackenzie: Hey Mom, I find it interesting that you refer to the Weekly World News as, “The paper.” The paper contains facts.
May Mackenzie: This paper contains facts. And this paper has the eighth highest circulation in the whole wide world. Right? Plenty of facts. “Pregnant man gives birth.” That’s a fact.
especially if Ed Wade didn’t notice his defensive liabilities.
His defense doesn’t seem to be that awful, actually, according to Fangraphs- and his career stats also say “average defensive 2B”. If anything, it’s his offense (impatience without high enough batting average to make up for it, inability to demonstrate power behind yanking some balls 350 feet down the lines) that pulls him down in value.
Maybe he’d do better in another ballpark and go all Carlos Guillen in some other ballpark… maybe the other ballpark would just MAKE him look like he’s doing better without changing his value, but either way, I don’t see it as a big deal if he’s gone next year, because I don’t think Lopez will develop further as a Mariner, and I think a ~2 WAR 2B won’t be that hard to replace.
Looks like pitch f/x has data for 13 out of the 17 HR’s Lopez hit in ’08. Of those HR’s, only one came on anything resembling an off-speed pitch (slider). The rest came on fastballs and variations thereof (cutters, splitters, sinkers, etc).
At least this year his road OPS is .878, not quite Chase Utley territory, but close. At home, .590, which is pitiful. I wonder whether there’s a team with a second baseman who’d be better suited for Safeco, and a park where Lopez would put up some seriously major numbers, making everyone happy.
You know, his chart doesn’t really look any different than this.
I was a little floored when I looked at that.
Is anyone else surprised by this?
That the link doesn’t go to a chart? Not really.
Dammit. I meant to post a link to THIS.
I am not surprised by either chart. I don’t think I have watched either Ichiro or Jose hit home runs opposite field or to centerfield. Thanks for the post Dave. I like the graphs/charts. I also have to agree that stats are not player hating it is just the numbers. Since I have been on the USS Mariner (a couple of months) I think I am heading to the dark side (by taking human emotion out of the equation). I also think I am a more informed fan due to reading these posts.
We’re not trying to remove human emotion. Just ask us about Chris Snelling sometime.
We just want to shine light on some truths about baseball. Hopefully, we’ve one a decent job of that.
A one hundred fifty pound singles hitter should be hitting opposite field homeruns.
Right.
The problem with Lopez is that people look at 15 HR/71 RBI in 111 games and think hey, he’s pretty damn valuable, when his OBP and OPS are actually down considerably from last year. Not that RC/G is a good stat, but he’s a full run under last year’s RC/G (4.9 to 3.9).
Lopez is due $2.3M next year, which is pretty cheap for a league average 2B, and he has a 2011 team option for $4.5M.
I expect Jack Z may look to move him next summer and dump the option decision on some other team.
I like Chris Snelling. If he could stay on the field. It is interesting that only 4 of Jose’s 15 home runs have come at home. Some GM will look at that and say Jose could put up better numbers in their park. It would be nice to have more speed at second base next year.
Remember when Hargrove was trying to turn him into a push hitter? That was awesome. And terrible to watch.
Were this only true.
Hannahan?
I want lopez gone. I would love for the M’s to get a solid singles hitter with a great glove to play 2nd. I am so tired of Lopez.
Mike Hargrove was a bad manager.
I was talking about the depth really. All of Ichiro’s Hr’s (except one) are between 350 and 400, and all of Lopez’s are too. Granted Lopez puts more out of the park than Ichiro, but Ichiro at least has one 400 foot shot.
Ichiro also has a higher speed off the bat and longer average distance travelled, though a slightly shorter average ‘true’ distance.
It just seems to be an interesting comparison.
[ot]
IF this team has reached the point of NOT worrying about hitting from DH, 1st, and Catcher
next year THEN Lopez would be an option to upgrade
BUT to focus on him right now is a waste of time.
IF Hall can find his stroke again then moving Hanahan to 2nd would make sense but right now I dont see too many offensive tools on this team. Besides, some of the players have to provide offense on the road too. At home we have been looking for more left handed hitters but that wont hold true on the road at some stadiums so maybe Lopez provides more than can be seen in general statistics. Over the years there have been players that while not having great offensive stats seem to get the hit at the right time. Lopez may not quite be in the group yet but sure has done that quite a few times this year.
Oh yeah! On his homeruns, one thing that he can do that many of your power hitters cant is keep an inside pitch fair. He has a very strong ability to draw his hands into his body and still drive the ball to left.
If his contributions as a defensive player overshadow the above then I guess we can hope the new DH will pick up the run production while another punch hitter (bring Omar back and put him 2nd in lineup)fills in!!!!
Were this only true.
Adam Kennedy has comparable WAR to Lopez the last couple of years, and was a minor league signing. Luis Castillo is comparable to Lopez the last couple of years. He was acquired by his last team for minor leaguers. Jack Wilson would be another example (if you expand the comparison to middle infielders).
Really, Lopez’s value is not too far from someone like Endy Chavez (with the caveat that the guy is younger than Jeff Clement)- a role player or OK ballplayer, but pretty generic and replaceable.
IF this team has reached the point of NOT worrying about hitting from DH, 1st, and Catcher
next year THEN Lopez would be an option to upgrade
BUT to focus on him right now is a waste of time.
Nobody is saying “ignore those positions in order to get Jose Lopez off the team”, like the way Carlos Guillen got dumped for garbage, but it is possible to walk AND chew gum at the same time in such a way to reconstruct the roster, and trading Lopez could be part of that. A 2B with superficially attractive Triple Crown numbers may be valued by some teams more than others (and a hitter of Lopez’s type is really badly suited for Safeco), and Zduriencik’s pretty good at teasing value out of teams. That’s all that’s being suggested.
re: The notion that writers/reader hates Lopez… people here don’t necessarily hate Jose Lopez. Jose Lopez has enough documented and observed limits as a player that the M’s can upgrade the position. That’s all, really. Some may overlay negative feelings towards him in discussion, but those are tangentially related to his actual abilities and limits.
Marinerman says, “I want lopez gone. I would love for the M’s to get a solid singles hitter with a great glove to play 2nd. I am so tired of Lopez.”
This is exactly what I’m talking about by hating. I can use another word if you like, but this seems unreasonable. Lopez plays around average defense, and is the third best hitter on the team. He makes 1.6 million. Lopez is not our problem. If we upgraded a bunch of other spots, then we could look to upgrade second, but for now, Lopez is one of our better players.
I agree entirely with jjracoon.
In that case, you brought up the hating before anyone actually started hating.
Do you think it might be possible to upgrade more than 1 position at a time?
I’m with jjracoon and mike thomas on this one.
Lopez isn’t great, but he’s a league average 2B making nothing ($2M in ’09, $2.5M in ’10). Fangraphs has him worth ~$8-9M every year except 2007.
With a lot of other holes to fill, why spend resources on this non-hole?
If the M’s acquire a 1B, C, OF and DH who can actually hit, and Lopez is your #7 or #8 hitter, he’s just fine.
Lopez is one of our better players.
Jack Hannahan, 2007-2009: 3.6 WAR
Jose Lopez, 2007-2009: 3.6 WAR
We got Hannahan off the rubbish heap.
I would argue if you played Hannahan, Endy Chavez or Ryan Langerhans regularly, you might get a ~2 WAR player out of it… which is about what Jose Lopez is at this point in his career.
he’s a league average 2B
18th out of 23 qualifying for the batting title in WAR in 2009, 13th out of 18 qualifying 2B in WAR.
Just eyeballing the charts, “league average” seems to be somewhere around 2.5-3 WAR.
Has anyone noticed that Tui has been playing 2B down in Tacoma? I wonder if they are thinking about trading Lopez during the offseason.
I’m not sure that playing Tui at 2nd means anything more than allowing Shelton to get into the lineup @ 3rd base.
Pull power Jose strikes again!
for what he curently makes, lopez is a decent value, he is solid, not great on defense, his problem is his range, and i get what all the charts say and i do think we have seen pretty close to the best we will get from him,having said that he is arguably our best clutch hitter and provides more slugging than the sacred adrian beltre and his declining bat provide, to me if he is hitting 6th or lower in your line-up a this cost he is a decent value. The problem is the M’s have so many offensive holes that they have too many guys who should be hitting 6th, 7th or 8th rounding out a line up instead hitting 3rd, 4th, 5th (guys like lopez, beltre, sweeney, griffey).
Find your shift key.
I believe that most keyboards have them on the left and right-hand sides, next to the the z and / keys.
Unless it’s a Dvorak keyboard!
[rosterbation, you've been warned repeatedly. cut it out]