The Hidden Value Of Bill Hall
While the focus on Hall since his acquisition has been his struggles with the bat the last few years, the largest part of his likely value to the team will come through his defensive flexibility. This isn’t something that we’ve talked about too much on the blog because it’s a minor detail that only comes into play when you’re expecting to field a winning team, and we haven’t had many of those to write about, but having a couple of guys who can play almost everywhere is a pretty valuable thing.
With Langerhans, Hannahan, and now Hall on board, the Mariners have two backups at every single position on the field other than catcher. Langerhans and Hall can both cover all three outfield spots, while Hannahan and Hall can both cover 3B/SS/2B, and Hannahan and Langerhans can both cover 1B. With just those three players, the Mariners now have a left-handed and right-handed backup option at every single non-catcher position on the field.
The flexibility offered by those three allows the M’s to do a bunch of things with the roster. They could platoon at DH again if they wanted (though I don’t think they’ll want to), as they have the ability to carry two guys with no defensive value. They could get a no-glove switch-hitter whose just around to pinch-hit. They could carry an extra pitcher when the bullpen gets a little worn down.
Hall, Hannahan, and Langerhans all signify that the Mariners are looking to build a roster in 2010, rather than just a big collection of talent. They fit together in a way that gives Wak an incredible amount of flexibility in how he uses his bench. By covering all the back-up jobs with just three players, the M’s have given themselves an extra roster spot to play with.
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Also, the price that you get all three for is pretty awesome.
And if he decides to do a ‘little bit of Branyon’, that’s ok too.
… as in, come here and hit pretty well too. sheesh!
How would Bill Hall compare to Mark McLemore?
They could get a no-glove switch-hitter whose just around to pinch-hit.
That would require a manager who was actually interested in pinch-hitting. But considering that, these three guys actually make even more sense. By that I mean that they’re all guys who are better suited to being used as spot starters than for in-game maneuvering.
Uh…
Both of the guys who can play first are lefties. So of the three, there isn’t a RH backup option at first. Just pointing that out.
Lopez.
So does this shape up to being the best bench since when? McLemore doing everything? But with very good defense?
But hasn’t one of the criticisms of Wak this year been that he doesn’t use his bench? Are we hoping that this year was the “rebuilding clubhouse atmosphere by tickling Ichiro as much as possible” year and next year will be the “start using the baseball talent at hand with the intent of winning as many ballgames as possible” year?
I thought that it was he doesn’t pinch-hit. That’s not the same as “not using his bench.”
Game to game, I’d say Wak uses his bench very well. He’s not prone to pinch-hitting, no, but just about everyone on the 25-man has gotten more playing time than under Hargrove or Riggleman. (This backed up only by my perception, I’ll admit. I haven’t actually checked the stats to be sure of this.)
I’ll probably get crucified for this, but isn’t this the “hidden” value of Willie Bloomquist as well? I know he’s not a good player, but having one player who can play a passable center field or shortstop, or pinch-run, allows you flexibility with the rest of your roster.
I always thought that was what gave him some value.
How would Bill Hall compare to Mark McLemore?
Defenseively it’s hard to say for sure – Hall is pretty much average at SS/CF and plus elsewhere. McLemore’s stint with the M’s predates most of the defensive statistics, but he was pretty good. Call it a wash defensively, though maybe Hall should get an edge. Mac was in his mid to late 30’s when he was here and Hall turns 30 this December (shares a birthday with my wife, oddly enough). Young legs gotta count for something.
At bat, if Hall can partially return to what he was three years ago, they’d be pretty close to a wash there too.
Looking over the stats, I’m impressed with Mark McLemore’s value. He was an average-plus hitter who could competently play any position. If Hall can get his bat out of its funk, he could be a really really nice part of a winning team.
And looking at Hall as part of a super-bench like this sort of leaves open the door to Beltre coming back. Odds are probably against it, but continuing the flexibility theme, having guys like Hall, Hannahan and Langerhans who can move around means the team can look for upgrades wherever they’re available instead of needing to target a specific position which might be in short supply.
Another thought – Hall and Langerhans are sort of the position player equivalent of pitchers like Snell, Morrow, French, etc. They have their negatives and you’re in trouble if you’re counting on any one of them to be above average, but they also have potential and if you have enough of them on the roster, odds are one or more of them will turn that potential into a good year for you.
It was more the cost of keeping Bloomquist wasn’t worth it. Jack didn’t pay a lot for these three guys which is the main point.
I’m excited by the fact that we have a GM who builds the team all year and not just in the off-season.
Last winter there was a consensus that the last thing we needed to worry about was a one-dimensional, long ball-hitting DH because we had so many other holes to fill.
Have we moved to the point where now that’s exactly what we should be thinking about? Acquiring a free agent for the middle of the order to scare opposing pitchers?
The difference is Bloomquist was a significantly below-average hitter. Good glove + bad bat = replacement level. He never had the potential to be a plus hitter. Hall has turned in a +15 and a +20 year with the bat in the past. He’s struggling horribly now, and that’s dropped him to Bloomquistian levels, but if he rebounds, he’s a better hitter than Willie. If he doesn’t, then he’s a replacement level guy.
And, thanks to the Brewers picking up salary, we’re probably paying Hall less than we were paying Bloomquist last year.
Not to mention with Bloomquist, there was always a faction of people thinking he had the skills to start because of their love for the local, gritty player, when he was by no means a starting caliber player.
Heh, heh, I thought of Bloomquist as well. He was overvalued by some fans, who wanted him in the starting lineup regularly, when he was best sitting on the pine waiting for a pinch-running opportunity (his forte, IMHO) or filling in on the odd day.
I like the flexibility that JZ has this offseason. He could take a run at Beltre or another 3Bman, but he has options in house (including platooning) as a fallback. If instead he finds a 2B worth the price, Lopez could be put on the trade block, yet not absolutely have to be dealt because he could move over to third.
IF Hall or Hannahan can’t hit for beans, cutting them will be easy at their cheap price, unlike agonizing over the (admittedly sunk) cost of Eight-Figure Silva.
Or people like my aunt who thought Willie looked cute in his tight pants, and therefore deserving of an everyday spot in the lineup. APR (Ass in Pants Rating) is the future of sabermetrics if it really wants to go mainstream *sarcasm*
Dave didn’t spell out what to do with the roster flexibility, but to give an idea…
One of the least interesting things you can do with this is go get one of many cheaply available Ken Phelps-type players. There are always guys around who are tolerable at some position, mash right-handed pitching and can’t hit lefties well. Bad teams find them incredibly disappointing and can’t figure out what to do with them. They languish in AAA and on major league benches and make (for the purposes of constructing a $90 million team) zero dollars. If you don’t have the positional flexibility, you must make a sacrifice somewhere to get that guy his 400+ PA. But if you do have the completely extra roster spot(s) to carry someone like that, you can get at least 2 wins above replacement at no cost. And that’s one of the least interesting things to do with a free roster spot, merely the default move.
…which will probably be eaten immediately with yet another relief pitcher, rather than the offense this team so obviously and desperately needs. Because organizationally offense is the lowest priority and philosophically Wak doesn’t believe in pinch hitting or DHs who actually, well, H.
There appears to be no interest in carrying a Bloomquist- or Ugueto-type player, ever. The bench standard seems to be changing from “has at least one extraordinary skill” to “can be started everyday for 1-2 weeks without causing extreme nausea” and/or “looks like a major-league player at their position(s) when selectively started once a week.”
This is one of the differences between mediocre and championship-quality management. Go Jack!
Hall and Hannahan provide insurance against Beltre walking, and leverage in negotiating with him. I’d love to see Beltre come back so that both Hall and Hannahan could be versatile bench players.
But another thought struck me. I have heard suggestions that Ackley could be tried at 2B. I have no way of knowing how realistic that is. But if Ackley could play 2B, why not 3B? Wouldn’t THAT make things interesting?
Either way, The M’s appear to be building a team of versatile players for multiple situations that puts me in mind of only one other team — the Earl Weaver-era Orioles.
THAT’s exciting.
I don’t think that’s entirely fair, Chris. Looking at various interviews with Z, it seems pretty clear to me that he’s interested in upgrading the team in the most effective ways possible. In the last offseason, he saw a team that was not very good defensively and that defense was available for a lot less expenditure than offense. Rightly, he concluded that a run saved is worth the same as a run produced, but that the run saved was a lot cheaper, and upgraded accordingly.
He also saw that a guy who had been relegated to platoons his entire career had the potential to be a good everyday offensive player, and that he was available without breaking the bank. Welcome, Russell Branyan.
Every interview and every move I’ve seen from Jack suggests to me that he’ll improve the team by any means available. He’s not tied down to one way of thinking. If defense is available for less expenditure than what it’s worth, he’ll go that way. If offense is available for less expenditure than it’s worth, then he’ll do that.
The reason for moving Ackley to 2B would be if his arm just doesn’t play in CF. As such, moving him to 3B would make no sense.
I think we would all love to see Beltre come back. The only real problem is that Safeco eats his bat alive. Sadly, it’s unlikely the he will sign here again.
My understanding is that they are going to give him every chance to be a CF. If that doesn’t work out, they can always move him. He’s supposedly gifted enough that he can play just about anywhere on the field, so 2b isn’t out of the realm of possibility, it’s just a bit premature.
All that GRIT going to waste… *sigh*
Chris, while I agree that the largest room for improvement is in the offense, I disagree that what we’ve seen this year reflects a philosophy that offense is the lowest priority in team construction.
One of Zduriencik’s main tasks is to shop carefully for players, and part of that is knowing what skills are undervalued by the other shoppers. Nearly all of baseball is valuing offense more or less correctly these days–it’s not like it was ten years ago when Beane could buy half of a great offense for $10 million in free agency, simply because half the GMs were apparently ignoring walks. Defense and pitching, on the other hand, still have about half the teams completely mystified (the Bavasi M’s were one of those teams). So Jack is assembling undervalued run-prevention talent on the cheap, and is now poised to spend his rapidly-increasing uncommitted payroll on Important Pieces, just in time for the years in which the team can actually contend for a championship.
If the other GM’s were collectively undervaluing offense rather than run prevention in 2009, this team would look more like the 1999-2002 A’s. And someone would surely complain that the organization isn’t prioritizing defense and pitching enough. It’s not the organization’s philosophy to field a weak offense, rather it’s a combination of recognizing 2009 as a non-contention year and the bargain skills being defense and certain kinds of pitching.
To summarize what Dave Clapper said:
The roster coming into the 2009 season was short on offense and defense.
Offense is currently over-valued in the marketplace while defense is under-valued.
The team had limited resources/flexibility to use in upgrading the roster.
Therefore, the team used those scarce resources to buy better defenders who were still below average on offense. The 2009 team is currently running a 8.0 UZR/150 (that includes Yuni’s “contributions” this year). The 2008 team ran a -1.1 UZR/150. Over a full season, that’s about a 70 run improvement (162 / 150 * (8.0 – -1.1) * 7 position players).
If those same resources had been spent improving the offense at the same level of defense, I doubt the team would have been able to improve to nearly the same degree. As Dave and others like to say, all the runs count.
OK, fine. I haven’t seen him throw, so I have no basis to dispute that.
I don’t think the DH situation this year reflects team philosophy at all, so I would encourage people to ignore it when speculating about the future. I think Zduriencik took the Griffey incident as an opportunity to provide the media and the fans with some aversion therapy. Down the road, talk radio blowhards and other idiots will complain that his moves haven’t brought in enough “proven veterans” and players “with a track record” who “know how to play the game” and other nonsense. Jack can reply “I tried it your way, and the result was indisputably a steaming pile of crap.” There’s more than one way to build for the future during a non-contending season…
ivan, it’s not so much about how he’s throwing now as it is about how his arm will or will not recover from TJ surgery.
Were you aware that he’s currently recovering from Tommy John surgery?
That is the only real question with his arm. If it turns out as expected, he’ll stay in the outfield.
Also indisputably a much, much smaller steaming pile than they were last year.
If no one realizes Griffey sucks and thinks his leadership and infectious grin was a big part of the team’s bounce, that’s going to be a tough argument.
Offense aside, Hall has has much more defensive value than McLemore. McLemore wasn’t very good at short or third, and wasn’t anything special in the OF.
Mark McLemore was also a switch hitter. That had to add some value to his offense and versatility.
Fortunately, most folks on this blog won’t waste their time with that argument beyond an initial “are you serious”.
Absolutely right. But if we start hearing talk about bringing Griffey back again, I think there’s going to be a large shift in support for what the front office is doing–at least here.
Mark McLemore was also a switch hitter. That had to add some value to his offense and versatility.
And he was a patient hitter who could go deep in the count.
Sure, I’m aware. I’m thinking down the line is all. Suppose Saunders comes on with the stick and Don wants both bats in the lineup? Sure, it’s rosterbating, but indulge me just this once, OK? All of a sudden there’s all this talent coming online, and I am REALLY looking forward to 2010. This is my last word on the subject.
This is SUCH a refreshing change from the days of three catchers and Vidro/Cairo.
I think Zduriencik took the Griffey incident as an opportunity to provide the media and the fans with some aversion therapy.
Griffey was a reasonable signing for the 2009 offseasons, given the alternatives. He’s basically fallen off the age cliff at 39, which isn’t surprising, but if he had stayed around where his 2008 performance was at the plate as the DH against RHP, he would have been OK. But look at some other signings we could have made:
Junior’s WAR, 2009: 0
Garret Anderson’s WAR, 2009: 0.3 (which is all because he can still play in the OF without being a trainwreck, and the M’s have better defensive options)
Jason Giambi’s 2009 WAR: -0.5
Bobby Abreu is having a nice year for 5 million (2.7 WAR), but when the DH options to pick from are a bunch of aging players, some are going to work out well, and some won’t. That’s just the nature of how it works when you’re dealing with guys on the wrong side of the age curve.
I suppose you could argue we could have gone with some combo of Shelton/Clement/AAAA hitters, but really, given his past history here in conjunction with what was on the market, Griffey isn’t something you couldn’t hold against Zduriencik. It didn’t work out so great. OK, so let Griffey have the goodbye tour and start again next year.
Anyways, to steer it back to the topic at the top of the thread: yeah, this does remind me of the McLemore/Javier days of supersubs. And let’s not forget Endy Chavez would be under team control as well, so we could REALLY have a nice bench.
When people talk nonsense about Griffey’s “leadership”, do they actually point to something? A common caricature of Griffey’s personality is that he’s 39-going-on-20, emotionally barely an adult. The detail I think of is his giant Captain Kirk-style massage chair in the clubhouse, which says “leadership” in an unintentionally hilarious and counter-productive way. Did he bring that back from Cincinnati, or was this his first major league team that wouldn’t put up with that?
It is too bad that Derek’s right about the effect of the pro-Griffey propaganda this year. I guess I’m too optimistic about how discerning the fans and media will be. Realistically, this is the fan base and local media that took more than a season to realize Vidro sucked, while thoughtful people were groaning and covering their eyes as soon as the signing came over the wire.
One upside of the media’s unreasonable preoccupation with Griffey is that it drew attention away from everything else. This is a period in Zduriencik’s tenure when it helps to have less scrutiny of the details. Later, when the team is successful, it’s okay to have lots of in-depth process stories because they’ll be positive hindsight explanations of why the GM is brilliant.
Endy Chavez is a free agent next season.
Looks like Wakamatsu wants to give Bill Hall’s flexibility a test run:
Lineup (per Baker)
RF Ichiro
CF Franklin Gutierrez
2B Jose Lopez
DH Mike Sweeney
1B Russell Branyan
LF Bill Hall
3B Jack Hannahan
C Rob Johnson
SS Josh Wilson
There was a reasonable business case to be made for signing Griffey that had nothing to do with his on-field performance. We’re focused entirely on the team on the field, but Zduriencik is working in a business and has to answer to owners who care about P&L. That’s fine, and just about any team can afford to (and many do) carry one “fan favorite” who might not be pulling his weight on the field but makes up for it in other ways. There’s a long distance from that to completely sacrificing actual performance on the altar of “chemistry” or “veteraness” or keeping a roster full of unproductive but popular players. And it’s a far cry from completely sabotaging a team in an effort to profit from league transfer payments and profit-sharing, as the Marlins have done.
I wasn’t a fan of the Griffey signing, but I can understand it and, from a purely business perspective, have no problem with it. As long as they don’t do it again.
I certainly agree with all that — my thought is that with all the good-feeling promotion around Griffey and the constant reinforcement of the he’s-helping-build-a-winning-clubhouse meme from people who cover the team, it makes them unable to make a “we tried it your way and it sucked” argument, because the other side believes that trying it their way was totally awesome.
And to get back on topic myself, I too remember the McLemore/Javier era with great fondness. It wasn’t an outstanding bench, but it was the first intentionally good bench for the M’s. Building a good bench demonstrates that an organization:
1. Budgets resources for the purpose and actually does it (it is amazing how many teams don’t take care of this);
2. Understands the strengths/weaknesses/durability of their starting position players;
3. Has a solid contingency plan in case of season-ending injury to any starter;
4. Provides in-game situational tools and skills in proportion to the actual value of those tools (i.e. tries to make sure there’s a good base-stealer on the bench without using a spot on someone who does little or nothing besides that);
5. Accumulates part or all of the solution to upcoming roster issues, such as players aging badly or leaving in free agency;
6. Knows that starting players, no matter how highly paid, might not be able to play worth a damn this year. Plausible alternatives to the starters both (a) prepare for this possibility and (b) mysteriously help prevent it from happening…
Isn’t the risk in this that if one of the backups gets hurt you need two people to effectively replace him?
Then again, that’s not much of a risk when you’re talking about a backup, but it’s got to be something in consideration.
The late 80s-early 90s had Tony Phillips. The late 90s early 00s had Mark McLemore. I could deal with the late 00s-early 10s having Bill Hall.
It seems evident that Wak is a teacher and has had camps and schools in past that signify his desire to teach youngsters. It further seems evident that Wak was hired to act as a teacher to the young guys on the 25 man roster. So if 2009 is a learning curve year, I’d say they’ve gotten some extra mileage out of the young group (62 wins and counting). With all that said, I’ve really attached myself to Langerhans and Hanahan. I really hope there’s a way we can see less of Griffey and less of Sweeney but more of those other guys in September. I realize Sweeney is probably more like a player coach (and designated hugger) but as a fan, I’m feeling the urge to cheer for Hanahan and Langhans and that’s that. Hall is someone I don’t know yet but the other two are more endearing than Griffey and Sweeney (to me). And I’m 45 year old and grew up with those old guys.
I disagree. The McLemore/Javier bench was an outstanding bench. Those two guys were flippin’ awesome in ‘01. Two switch-hitters both of whom were plus defenders with flexibility. Those guys were awesome to have around, and Lou made good use of them.
If we could find one player with a McLemore/Javier ability to be a super-sub on the bench, I’d be thrilled. The ‘01 M’s had two, and we were lucky to see them play.
Yeah, and that could be a problem. On the other hand, it may not even come up because Griffey may take himself out of the discussion. How happy can he really be with his on-field performance this year? Yeah, he’s had a couple of clutch hits but he has to be frustrated with his own baseball mortality. The fun times in the clubhouse are great, I’m sure, but meanwhile his family is clear across the country and his kids are quickly growing up and he’s very aware of the things he’s missing. He may just decide to retire, or go play a season with the Rays or something. If he’s leaning that way at all, he really should maximize his value to the organization by announcing it at the start of September, so he could have a “goodbye Seattle” Edgar-style victory lap and pull in some extra fans as the season staggers to a close. (You’d call it “goodbye” rather than “retirement” just in case he does go to Tampa or something).
Remember when Wakamatsu said he might run out “120 lineups” this season? Maybe Zduriencik realized he wouldn’t be able to get there with a fixed roster and so all these additions and subtractions are an effort to help Wak reach his goal. Because, you know, good managers give their subordinates the tools to succeed
That’s why you have these three guys instead of one Willie Bloomquist. (Aside from the fact that they include both LH and RH bats that are more effective, also).
If you ask the fans or coaches who saw him play last in both Cincinnati and on the south side of Chicago, it was obvious Griffey didn’t suddenly fall off a cliff. He was ‘done’ there, as well.
But that’s still not an pure argument against signing him. The gate attraction was real. And in this one case, I wouldn’t be surprised if Chuck Armstrong maybe stuck his thumb on the scale of objectivity to help Z make the decision.
However, from a baseball standpoint, it did hurt. First, it prevented us from winning more baseball games. But moreover, it deflated the value of Jeff Clement to virtually zero. Would he have failed again given a full year at DH? Maybe. But we essentially told everyone else in baseball we had already decided that by sending him back to Tacoma. Thus, he became a throw in to the Pirates.
I know there will be serious disagreement, but I think Clement had just as much a chance of having the ‘Branyan year’ as Branyan did. And I think our lineup could have used another Branyan.
Looking at Hall’s hittracker home runs, it looks like his big ‘06 had a lot of opposite field homers. Recently, just pull stuff, especially to left center, which is murder at Safeco. Any ideas why?
Sooo… you’d rather have Hall in left and Hannahan at 3rd than Saunders/Langerhans in left and Hall at 3rd. I’m not sure I agree with that.
If Hall can play 3rd, 2nd and of… i’m pretty sure he could handle first as well as Lopez, so the Mariners are doing fine there.
One possibility could be that ‘06 was an anomoly. Beltre had a year like that in ‘04 and came back to earth in the next year. Though in Safeco, so that may explain the drought.
Possibly an over-emphasis on pulling the ball has messed up his swing? Does this match up with the new park opening in Milwaukee? Does that park favor hitting to left?
Lots of questions, but can’t research during a conference call…
Miller Park opened in 2001.
Okay, never mind.
I suddenly feel a lot older.
You still type young though.
the Mariners have two backups at every single position on the field other than catcher.
BTW, with BLOOMQUIST and IBANEZ gone, who is the Mariner emergency (# 3) catcher?
orly? u think so? 2 k00l! lol wtf!!!one1
Yeah, I wanted to see Clement get a full year in the bigs because there seemed to be every reason to expect him to replicate his AAA performance given enough PAs (this was similar to Adam Jones, who a lot of people were happy to see go away in the Bedard trade because “he’d had his chance in the majors and couldn’t hit.”) It will be interesting to see if Clement gets a chance in Pittsburgh or gets flipped yet again in some offseason trade: he obviously can’t DH there, and his future as a catcher is dependent on a the murky state of his knees. Anyway, I completely agree with the argument that Griffey’s presence devalued Clement, though obviously Zduriencik didn’t have to sell low on him this year (he could’ve waited until next year, if Griffey’s goodbye gave Clement another opportunity to raise his value). That he got thrown in suggests the Pirates saw some value in him (it would be interesting to know if the Pirates asked about him specifically, or if Zduriencik offered him up as a way to square the deal).
Good question. I’m sure someone in the press has asked Wakamatsu and msb will be along to link the actual answer, but until then…well, Bill Hall could catch…. unfortunately, that Bill Hall died over twenty years ago. Which means he still has a better chance of blocking balls in the dirt than Rob Johnson.
I seem to remember reading earlier in the year about Sweeney taking some catching practice. I believe it was after Kenji got hurt, so I guess he’s the emergency option.
1b maybe?