Mike Carp
With rosters expanding today, the M’s are widely expected to bring Mike Carp up from Tacoma and give him some playing time at first base in Russ Branyan’s absence. Because of Carp’s strong spring and beginning to the year in Triple-A, he got a lot of attention as the organization’s first baseman of the future, and we even got to see him get a few hacks in the big leagues during the summer. I’d imagine most fans have a pretty positive impression of Carp’s abilities – perhaps too positive, in fact.
Let’s start with the facts – Carp is a 23-year-old with a good approach at the plate but average power at best, and he’s not a particularly good athlete or defender. We like on base percentage as much as anyone, but his overall package of physical skills isn’t that exciting. Power isn’t absolutely necessary to be a good player, as guys like Sean Casey and Mark Grace had nice careers with the kind of gap power that Carp has demonstrated, but they were really good defensive players with extraordinary hand-eye coordination. That’s not Carp.
For his minor league career, he’s struck out in about 20% of his plate appearances. Part of that is because he’s willing to work counts and lay off marginal pitches on the fringes of the strike zone, but a bigger part is that his swing isn’t conducive to covering the entire plate. He doesn’t lack big time power because he’s got a level swing that is spraying line drives all over the field – he lacks big time power because he doesn’t have a particularly quick bat.
Even as a guy who will walk regularly, you have to either make a lot of contact or hit for power to be a good hitter. Carp doesn’t really excel at either. His biggest strength at the plate is his pitch recognition, but as a first baseman, he’s going to have to do more than draw walks to earn his spot in the line-up.
Carp is kind of in the Adam LaRoche model of first base prospects, offering enough skills to suggest he’ll have a big league career but lacking some key components to be the kind of guy you want to build around. He’s had some decent years, but for his career, he’s averaged about +1.5 wins per season, a bit below average for a major league regular.
That’s kind of what you should expect from Carp over the next five or six years. .270/.350/.440 with below average defense at first base makes him a major league player, but not a guy that should be counted on as a big part of the franchise’s future. If he gets hot and tears the cover off the ball in September, that will be nice to help the team win some games down the stretch, but don’t go penciling him in for a spot on the team next year just yet. The M’s need to get more production from their 1B/DH combo next year, and Carp probably isn’t the answer.
LaRoche is an interesting comparison. I was thinking Scott Hatteberg myself. Depends on whether you want to subtract the power or add the strikeouts, I suppose.
Based on this, who is the best 1B prospect in the M’s system between Brad Nelson, Carp, and Lahair?
It sounds like at 23 there isn’t any hope for power to develop. Is that the case?
I would say that Poythress is the best 1B in the M’s farm system. Among the three that wescottr names, I would still go with Carp, mostly based on age.
A question about 1B defense. The current range of qualified fielders on Fangraphs ranges from 6.6 to -6.4 UZR/150. It seems the range is very small, so for the most part 1B seem to be playing about the same defense, or within 1.3 wins of one another. Is this common or is it a one year phenomenon?
Thanks for laying it out there about Carp, Dave. It seems that we fans always want to believe that our top prospects are destined to be cornerstones of the big league team. Some get there, but most fall short of our hopes and dreams. I was going to name names, but we all can make our own lists.
wescottr -
Oh, it’s still Carp by a mile over LaHair/Nelson, but Dave’s just saying that doesn’t make Carp a 4/5 win player when he arrives.
Carp’s significantly younger, and it’s possible that some of his doubles could turn into HRs later on. Given his swing, it’s not likely that he’ll gain a ton of power, but he could improve through 26-27.
Keeping in mind that his home park isn’t hitter friendly, he’s done a lot this year to show that he can probably play at the MLB level. He hasn’t shown that he can excel there.
On the positive side, I think he may be improving on D from solidly below average to in the range of average, and that would really help if the M’s can only really count on a ~ league average bat.
Carp can likely help out for a year or two- maybe if we’re real lucky he has a year that inflates his value to sell him high.
But I never thought of him as the cornerstone answer at first. Useful player, to be sure- but no big-timer.
But Poythress seems to be on the fast track. I still have a tough time believing they had him start out at AA-West Tennessee.
It’s the only time I remember a guy the Mariners picked going as high as second-round and being into the upper minors right away.
Dave, Derek, Jay-
Does Poythress stand a real chance to develop into a RH-hitter that Safeco won’t punish? I haven’t seen enough of his approach to make even an amateur-level determination of my own.
And he prob’ly doesn’t have enough pro ABs with wood to make any.
But, on the other hand… you guys might well know Poythress’ college career better than I do. Any observations of his ceiling thereof?
I’m in agreement with Dave re: Carp, in that I think he’s a nice piece, but not something to build around. I guess we’ll have to see how Raben does when he’s healthy next year.
Poythress is a great hitter, but his approach isn’t pull-based, he tends to hit to all fields, which some thing has hurt his power output. That could prove to be more of an asset in Safeco.
Great. . .
So am I supposed to believe now that we will/should overpay Branyan to strike out 9,000 times over the next 3-4 years?
Is Ackley going to play 1B? If so Carp wouldn’t be a terrible stopgap.
So it sounds like the best role for Carp to play for the M’s would be that of trade bait. (Let’s see . . . who likes fish? Bears like fish . . . could we deal him to the Cubs?)
And no, the plan is not to put Ackley at 1B.
Let’s see . . . who likes fish? Bears like fish . . . could we deal him to the Cubs?
Cats also like fish. Unfortunately, I don’t believe either the Tigers or the Cubs see themselves as needing a first baseman. It might make more sense to rely on a different kind of affinity and see if the Marlins are interested.
Um, I don’t think so. Why would anyone else want an OK but not outstanding player? In a position that’s easy to fill internally.
No, Carp is either a placeholder or bench player…OK for a cheap player to have at the price he is, but we can do better.
Look at a group of players in AA or AAA the Mariners have that figure to be 1B/DH types;
LH Mike Carp RH Chris Shelton
Brad Nelson Rich Poythress
Bryan Lahair
Thomas Hubbard
Johan Limonta
Dennis Raben(inj.)
That is not a very inspiring list as a group. Poythress and Shelton are the most talented but are RH batters with all the drawbacks that come with that in Safeco. Of the LH the only ones young enough to truly be prospects are Carp and Raben. They both project as high OBP but below average power guys and Raben is a complete question mark defensively(he missed the entire season and was playing mostly outfield last year). I did not see this as much of a problem a week ago because I thought a Branyan/Carp/Shelton at the 1B/DH next year would be acceptable and Poythress could be ready to take at bats from Carp and Shelton by the end of next year. Now Branyan has a herniated disk, that could very well sap his one true asset, his power.
This situation cries for the Mariners to spend big in FA/trade market to get a left handed hitter at 1B/DH because as it stands now two of those LH hitters on the list will be at !B/DH when next season starts.
Seahawks like fish. Can Carp play on the O-line? Maybe we can get Curry to do a Bo Jackson.
Great. . .
So am I supposed to believe now that we will/should overpay Branyan to strike out 9,000 times over the next 3-4 years?
Why is there such a fetish about strikeouts? I remember people running Mike Cameron out of town (quite stupidly, I might add) because of his K’s.
Certainly you don’t overpay Branyan, but it’s very possible he’s the better player compared to Carp (when healthy), if you figure Carp as a ~1.5-2.0 WAR player, and Branyan is a ~2.0-2.5 WAR player.
Tom is wrong about everything. Just let him be.
In a recent article Geoff Baker said that Branyan is less likely to play the field next year because of his back. This is the exact opposite of reality. The herniated disk is much more likely to affect Branyan’s bat speed making him a complete question mark going forward. Without his homerun power Branyan=Carp going forward. It was great to watch Branyan hit those majestic bombs this year but with his injury any more than a one year deal could turn out to be a disaster.
Have we learned nothing from the Richie Sexson contract?
No, I’m not wrong about EVERYTHING. I’m only wrong about most things.
Second, don’t compare Mike Cameron to Russell Branyan if we are going to talk about strike out rate correlates to how many wins a player gives you because Cameron won countless games for this team playing CF, one of the most difficult positions to play.
Finally, the only reason I mentioned possibly having to overpay Branyan is because apparently according to this post I should get the vibe that he’s only going to be a crappy, average player as opposed to a solid power hitter that can hit 6th in my lineup.
That’s all.
But won’t some sorry team talk themselves into overpaying for Branyan? And won’t that price ultimately be a big enough difference between Branyan and Carp that Carp is a better option? My personal vision is that Carp can be the placeholder at 1st base for our 1st baseman of the future, Prince Fielder! Now there’s a real prospect.
But if the team intends to chase a pennant next season, shouldn’t Carp be viewed as a backup plan if they fill some of the other needs instead, just like you may look at Saunders/Langerhans in LF (only a Branyanesque deal), Hall/Hannahan at 3B/2B (should Lopez be traded to fill another opening), the 7 guys besides Felix/RRS/Snell in the rotation.
It’d be nice to upgrade any of those position, but we have serviceable options at so many that we don’t need any one specifically.
Have we learned nothing from the Richie Sexson contract?
I didn’t mean to say a huge long term contract. But wether through trade or FA the Mariners need a legitamate bat at 1B/DH. I was thinking more along the lines of a one or two year deal for a guy like Thome or Abreau. Or a trade of valuable pieces for a legitamate 1B/DH. As Dave pointed out earlier this year the M’s should have around 15-18 million to spend and to get the kind of player they need will cost as much as half of those dollars.
The last thing I would want to see is the M’s spend considerable dollars on a long term deal for a guy like LaRoche or Hank Blalock.
The free-agent market is pretty flush with no-glove, lefty DH types.
Branyan after one respectable season is not going to earn anything ridiculous a year after more “legitimate” bats like Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell had to settle for what they could get.
I could see the Mariners offering something along the lines of a one-year with option for around 5-6M.
Just because Carp is not likely to bust out and become a star doesn’t mean you trade him now (what’s the point?), and it doesn’t mean you need to search for free agents.
Texas is still in the WC hunt despite their 1Bs posting a collective .282 wOBA. There’s a lot of value in paying ~$400k to a guy who can post a near average wOBA, hopefully w/average D. It’s not great at that position, and it’d be a step down from Branyan’s 2009. But it isn’t crippling – it just means you need to find upgrades elsewhere. If Branyan DH’s next year, well, that’d improve the M’s poor DH production this year, a move that might more than cancel out the downgrade at 1B.
Near league ave. production at league minimum salary is never a problem.
@SonOfZavaras: Poythress technically started with AZL for six games before moving up. It seems he’s taking a lot of pitches this year, as well, which is neat.
Um Raben is supposed to be the next Adam Dunn. Massive power draws a lot of walks and strikes out a lot. Perennial 40 HR guy is what they were saying. And the main question mark about his defense was whether he could stay in RF. Well back injuries and knee surgery will almost certainly limit him to first base. Raben is one of your best power hitters in your system when he’s healthy. He was expected to go through High A to AAA in one season but the surgery stopped all that. Raben at 1B and Poythress at DH will wreak havoc in the future.
Please, let’s exercise a little bit of restraint.
Um, no he wasn’t. You should purge whoever fed you the Raben = Dunn comparison from your readings.
Ding ding ding!
Near league ave. production at league minimum salary is never a problem.
League average production at a league minimum salary is not always the answer, however. As noted previously, the M’s roster is now overflowing with just slightly below average players. A roster full of Mike Carps wins 70-80 games a year, and that’s not the goal.
So, the question is, how many Mike Carps can you have and still win? The M’s already have a bunch of positions committed to +1 to +2 win players. If they give LF to Saunders/Langerhans, 3B to Hannahan/Hall, and 1B to Carp, you’re basically going to have a starting nine where the only above average players are Ichiro and Gutierrez.
That’s not the recipe for a playoff team.
Great points Dave, and thank you for an excellent post.
I would like to add that a league average bat with excellent defense at first base would be acceptable. But first base is one of the positions where you definately want better offensive production than league average. I would think the minimum desired skillset would be an average bat for a 1B, which is a much more productive bat than simply league average.
The Times just posted that Carp and Vargas have been called up.
So the question now is how many IMPACT players does this team need to sign to become a playoff team next year or in 2011?
By my count, you have glaring offensive (and defensive) holes at 3B, 2B and DH assuming Beltre leaves for free agency with the help of his buddy Scott Boras like I think he will.
“A roster full of Mike Carps wins 70-80 games a year, and that’s not the goal. ”
Luckily, we’ve only got the one.
The point of letting Mike Carp man first base is so that you could spend money on other players who will give you more than 2 wins.
No one’s saying that 9 ~ averagey players at a minimum salary is the ultimate goal. But if you’ve got a few of ‘em, you’ve got tremendous flexibility in filling out the rest of your line-up. Playing Carp at 1B and/or Saunderhans in LF means you don’t need to settle for Hallahan at 3B, and means signing Branyan or another masher to DH gets a bit easier.
Luckily, we’ve only got the one.
Actually, we have like 15. Which was kind of the point.
The point of letting Mike Carp man first base is so that you could spend money on other players who will give you more than 2 wins.
Of course, you have to play that +3 or +4 win player somewhere. Eventually, at some point, this team will have to replace a slightly below average cheap guy with a good player, whether its at 3B/2B/1B. If 1B turns out to be the easiest place to add that kind of player, then Carp shouldn’t stand in his way.
No one’s saying that 9 ~ averagey players at a minimum salary is the ultimate goal. But if you’ve got a few of ‘em, you’ve got tremendous flexibility in filling out the rest of your line-up.
And if you’ve got seven of em, you’ve got to give one or two the boot.
Playing Carp at 1B and/or Saunderhans in LF means you don’t need to settle for Hannaahan at 3B, and means signing Branyan or another masher to DH gets a bit easier.
Except Hannahan is basically Carp’s equal, so you’re settling for the same level of production at one corner no matter which cheap guy you go with. And it’s almost certainly going to be easier to find a first baseman than a third baseman this winter.
Whoops… Ok so now that that comparison is out of my head would Jack Cust/Branyan be a better comparison.
If Mike Carp is manning first, what would the M’s do with the Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder that Steve Kelley suggests they go out and get?
“Actually, we have like 15. Which was kind of the point.”
I thought it was a decent one-liner. Tough crowd.
“If 1B turns out to be the easiest place to add that kind of player, then Carp shouldn’t stand in his way.”
No argument here.
“And it’s almost certainly going to be easier to find a first baseman than a third baseman this winter.”
I’d imagine LF would be easier to fill than 1B just eyeballing Cot’s, and DH would as well. 3B may be tougher, but it’s close – if you thought you could get Beltre or Figgins, that changes things.
My point is simply that having a 1B prospect who doesn’t project as a 4 WAR guy is not in and of itself a problem. In this context, it’s trickier, but whether he’s in AAA, at 1B, on the bench or traded, Mike Carp won’t hurt the club.
I think the point of the post is that if we have average bats and great defense at most positions than one of the only places to upgrade the offense is at first base and dh. Mike Carp is not the answer at either of those 2 positions.
I think the point of the post is that if we have average bats and great defense at most positions than one of the only places to upgrade the offense is at first base and dh
No. Average bat + great defense is an above-average player. You need to quit thinking “upgrade the offense” and think “upgrade the team”. Mike Carp hitting .270/.350/.440 makes him close to an average bat at 1b (2008 MLB 1B: .272/.353/.464). The problem is he’s below-average on defense, which makes him a below-average player. If he WAS a Sean Casey/Mark Grace kind of player with that kind of bat, he’d be much closer to being the 3 WAR player we’d need.
So we have 16-18 M to spend on 1B-3B-DH… I definately think that with the weak crop of FA 3B that bringing back Beltre would be ideal… What would be better – Carp/Shelton-Abreu-Beltre or Carp/Shelton-Branyan-Beltre – or Tui/Hannahan platoon-Branyan-Abreu?
I’m not exactly sure how good Tui is supposed to be vs Hannahan… But out of all the DH types available, I definately prefer Bobby Abreu
I don’t think it said anywhere in my post to downgrade the defense?
This is where Cameron goes berserk.
If Mike Carp is manning first, what would the M’s do with the Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder that Steve Kelley suggests they go out and get?
Assuming they have any sense, they would ignore Steve Kelley.
I don’t think it said anywhere in my post to downgrade the defense?
No, but “upgrade the offense” is not the same as “We should have a better player playing 1B than Mike Carp”.
“We should have a better player playing 1B than Mike Carpâ€.
I agree.
Whoops… Ok so now that that comparison is out of my head would Jack Cust/Branyan be a better comparison.
No. Wherever you got this crazy idea that Raben has 80 power, lose it.
I’d imagine LF would be easier to fill than 1B just eyeballing Cot’s, and DH would as well. 3B may be tougher, but it’s close – if you thought you could get Beltre or Figgins, that changes things.
LF is a non-starter. With Saunders and Langerhans around for 2010 and Ackley for 2011, you’d be limited in the kind of player you could bring in, and the cost wouldn’t be enough to justify the difference. There’s no way you choose Carp over Saunders as the young, below average guy you want on this team next year.
It seems to me that the hard part for the Mariners will be finding a couple of 4-5 win players.
Teams are getting smarter and locking up their talented players earlier for longer on the cheap.
There just aren’t that many available in free-agency, which drives up the price of the few who are, and the Mariners don’t really have the farm system to acquire a “name” either.
I suppose our best bet is that Jack Zduriencik puts back on his lucky trade hat and we get another Gutierrez dropped in our laps.
It is interesting how so many commenters are just penciling Branyan into next years lineup. First, he is a free agent and will be looking to cash in on a career year. Second and maybe more importantly there is less than a fifty percent chance Branyan is ever the same player he was before the herniated disk. Thousands of workers a year become fully disabled and unable to do manual labor type work because of herniated disks. These sorts of manual labor jobs usually don’t involve anything as violent as swinging a bat yet the injured are never able to fully function again. Perhaps a golfer with this sort of injury can explain to the masses how difficult swinging a golf club becomes after this type of injury.
In summation, counting on Branyan to be the type of player the M’s need next year is very similar to counting on Carp. Maybe even riskier.
Whoa… Guess his power was greatly exaggerated then… So who does he compare to then?
mw3 said:
Well, it’s certainly no given, but it could very well be likely.
I’ll state my case.
1. He’s fills a Mariners need for a 1B/DH with middle of the order offensive potential.
2. He’s greatful to the Mariners for giving him his first real opportunity to play and by all reports would love to come back.
3. He isn’t going to make much in free agency.
He’ll be competing with guys like Jim Thome, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero, Nick Johnson, Nomar Garciaparra, Adam LaRoche… Suffice to say the list of “DH/1B” free agents is not a short one, and there aren’t that many starting jobs available, or many teams that would take him over more established bats.
I’d say short of this back-injury being career ending, there’s probably an 80% chance Branyan is back in the blue and teal for at least one more year.
Hey Slurve, FWIW….I was of the mind that Raben has 60-65 power on a 20-to-80 scale- but that’s his ceiling, not where he is right now.
A comparable player that I can think of- if all current projections of his abilities round off and become true, and he makes no gigantic strides defensively- would probably be Jeff Conine.
With a little more power and a little less defense. Conine was no great shakes at first, but he never embarrassed, either.
Some thoughts on Branyan/Carp: There’s a real possibility that Branyan simply won’t come back. Herniated disks- like many back-related injuries- are really tricky things, and they have a way of flaring up and never disappearing completely.
I’d hate to see this happen, but I think that Zduriencik had best have a plan that calls for him not having Branyan on the team next year.
If that winds up being the case, I hope we wind up with Nick Johnson and/or Gregg Zaun as free agents. I’ve had them earmarked as players I want to see wearing an M’s uniform for years.
But with only about $17-18 million to spend, well…tough to swing that and a #2 starter as well.
As far as Mike Carp goes, I like the idea of him being on our bench in the long run. But, it’s tough to overlook the fact that one transposition of his last name, and you’ve got a common slang word for excrement.
If he’s a starter for us, I’m always gonna be pining for us to find someone else.
And waiting with bated breath for a Richard Poythress, Jharmidy DeJesus or somebody else who’s likely to be better.
Dave,
With respect to the Adam LaRoche comparison, I’m no scout but I think you may well be underselling Carp.
In his age 22 season, Carp has hit .818 OPS/.175 ISO in his first exposure to AAA.
LaRoche’s age 22 season was in AA (not AAA) where he hit .773 OPS/.121 ISO.
I found it interesting to compare Carp to the minor league performances of other 1B currently in the majors.
Youkilis — age 25 season — AAA — .800 OPS/.152 ISO
K. Morales — age 23 season — AAA — .878 OPS/.200 ISO
Derek Lee — age 25 season — AAA — .778 OPS/.145 ISO
Adrian Gonzalez — age 22 season — AAA — .823 OPS/.153 ISO
It may be coincidence, but Carp’s season compares well to the above All-Stars. Whether Carp is the best option next year is I agree debatable, but the Mariners may very well have much more of an asset here in the long-run than you’re giving them credit for.
Donovan,
I like Carp plenty well – maybe too well if Dave’s right that his swing won’t allow him to grow into more HR power. The problem with these comparisons is that most of these guys showed huge power/contact/whatever earlier. You can’t just pick and choose the guys worst MiLB performance. I can make Carp look average by taking the same guys in AA:
Derrek Lee .280/.360/.570 (34 HRs at age 20!)
Youk .327/.487/.465
Morales .306/.349/.530
Gonzalez .266/.344/.437 (not great, but he was 20)
Yes, these guys looked better in their first taste of AAA, but these guys showed MLB skills in AA, where Carp stumbled initially in AA, then had a nice rebound last year. I don’t think Carp’s bad because of this, but looking at the MiLB record in total shows that all four of these guys were far, far better prospects than Carp.
With respect to the Mariner’s first base prospects:
1. Brad Nelson is more suited to DH than 1B.
2. Shelton has had a better season in Tacoma than Carp: .310/.391/.505 vs. Carp’s .271/.372/.446
3. LaHair is not a competent outfielder, and probably has no future in the organization.