Not Trying To Be A Jerk
But just throwing this out there.
Doug Fister: 33 2/3 IP, 26 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 5 HR, 9 BB, 20 K
Jason Vargas*: 34 2/3 IP, 33 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 6 HR, 9 BB, 19 K
*Through his first six starts with the M’s this year.
I like Vargas, so this isn’t intended as a slam. These guys have good command and out-pitch change-ups, which makes up for the weak fastballs that they toss up there. But, while Fister’s emergence is certainly encouraging, just remember that we’ve already seen this act once this year. Vargas’ season had a very similar beginning, and just a few months later he was toiling in Triple-A again.
Pitchers are inconsistent. They have good runs and bad runs. Often times, we overreact to these runs, especially when they come as a first impression. But, as I argued on FanGraphs about John Smoltz, we really can’t extrapolate anything at all from how a pitcher performs over 40 innings. We can say stuff about how they pitched during that time frame, but trying to base a future projection off of such a limited sample is nutty.
Enjoy watching Fister buckle hitters with his change-up. Just don’t be shocked if he gets bombed before the year ends. It’s the nature of pitchers – they’re remarkably inconsistent and shouldn’t be counted on.