Morrow and Hope
8 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts. Just a dominating performance that shows the kind of talent this kid has. This is the kind of game that makes you say “man, he’s on the verge of really being something.”
Oh, sorry, you think I’m talking about Brandon Morrow last night? Actually, I was describing Chad Gaudin’s performance against the Texas Rangers on June 28th. Gaudin put up the exact same line as Morrow did last night, only he did it in Texas instead of in Safeco, and against a team that can hit instead of a collection of no power slap hitters.
I know its tempting to look at Morrow’s performance and say “yep, he can be that kind of pitcher”. But in reality, he’s not that different from guys like Gaudin, who have knockout stuff but significant limitations as well.
Gaudin has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen because he can’t get left-handed hitters out. Morrow’s got a massive platoon split as well. Gaudin has problems working deep into ballgames because he throws so many pitches, in large part due to his command problems. Ditto for Morrow. Gaudin has always been a guy who pitched below his talent level. That describes Morrow’s major league career as well.
Obviously, they’re not exactly the same pitcher. Morrow’s fastball is 5+ MPH faster, which earns him quite a bit more benefit of the doubt. We always look at guys with the kind of stuff that Morrow possesses and dream about what they can become if they figure it out. Problem is, they rarely do. Much more frequently, they carve out a career like Gaudin. Or Jonathan Sanchez, Oliver Perez, or Jorge de la Rosa.
They succeed, to an extent, in spite of their command problems. But they’re rarely as good as you think they should be. Every once in a while, they give you a glimmer of hope, a night where everything works and they look like the ace you always wanted them to become. But, with few exceptions, they turn out to be significantly less than the sum of their parts.
It’s tempting to look at Brandon Morrow’s performance last night and say “he’s ready to be the #2 starter behind Felix”. But more likely, it’s just a tease. It’s the glimpse of potential that is so often followed by a soul crushing return to normalcy.
We can dream about what Brandon Morrow might become, but if we want to see a more likely outcome, take a look at Chad Gaudin. Without some significant sustainable improvements in his command, you’re always going to wish for more.
Jeez… De la Rosa and Sanchez are pretty good, aren’t they? WARs of 2.2 and 3.6, respectively, this year, and comparable value last year. I’d probably trade Morrow for either one of them straight up, at this point.
The general point seems right, though… It’s hard to have a lot of confidence that Morrow is going to pan out. His inconsistency, lingering arm troubles, control problems, and waffling on what he wants to be when he grows up, all make him seem more valuable as trade bait than as a possible member of the rotation.
I suspect you could have saved yourself a lot of typing by just posting a headline “Morrow: Sell High” and nothing else.
Yeah, they should do what they did with another #1 dreaft choice who was a tease like that. Trade him for Joe Borchard. Isn’t it great how that turned out?
Gaudin, I note, has a similar history of being bumped to the majors incredibly prematurely and used mostly as a relief pitcher at first.
There definitly are a lot of young pitchers with great arms that never learn to control it and have up and down careers, but there are also a handful that struggle early in their career with control problems that do get it together and become above average pitchers. Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan all had BB/9 in the 5-6 range and above early in their careers, for instance Nolan Ryan had a 6.89 BB/K in ‘71, his 4th full season with the Mets, the year they gave up on him and traded him to the Angels.
I’m not saying that Morrow is the second coming of any of them, but you can see why teams are willing to be patient and not put a cieling on a pitcher with a great arm even after 3-4 years. Even though it is rare, sometimes something clicks, and then it’s is really special.
It’s true, whenever I got excited by yet another good inning by Morrow last night I had to remind myself “It’s against the Athletics.” Of course he did have some good outings against good teams, especially at the end of last year, so I’m not ready to give up on him yet. That said, if Zduriencik can get back a lot of value for him, go for it.
Is there any evidence this is a continuing problem, though? Yeah, it was an issue at the start of the year, but I’m sure glad I’m not still judged based on the indecisiveness I had about my life at age 24.
Yeah, they should do what they did with another #1 dreaft choice who was a tease like that. Trade him for Joe Borchard. Isn’t it great how that turned out?
Considering that Matt Thornton was a draft choice in summer 1998 and hadn’t nailed down a MLB job by spring 2006 (almost 8 years later), giving up on him at that point doesn’t strike me as very premature.
There’s also the minor matter that “unproven reliever with good fastball” isn’t exactly the most difficult thing to find for next to nothing (see: Aardsma, David). Yeah, we gave up on a guy who’s eventually turned into a good reliever. This would be more problematic if it wasn’t fairly easy to find good relievers by dumpster-diving among the bad ones with some good cheese, and seeing who turns into a good one.
Yes, it was the A’s & September stats, and it’s very reminiscent of a “Meche’s finally turned the corner†start; but what can we expect going forward with Morrow? I keep seeing “sell high†by posters here and LL, but I don’t see one good start as moving his stock up enough that selling right now wouldn’t actually be selling low (which reminds me of people trying to sell their Stocks in March when they took a slight upturn rather than wait a few more months). A little patience can be a virtue. No, he never materializes into a 4+ WAR starter, but I would like to at least see one full year of him starting without all the bouncing back, and forth.
Either way, selling right now is probably not “selling high”.
This is pretty much the take-home message of that start. On one hand Morrow did quite well, showing the kind of pitcher he could become if he has command.
Here’s the thing, both his start vs. Oakland and his start vs. the Yankees have one glaring thing in common. Neither team gave him any real trouble. Base runners were scarce.
Starts rarely go that well all the time. What happens when the opponent is able to mount a rally or foul off pitches to draw a walk? Does his command go back to suckville? Will his command go to suckville at an earlier pitch-count depending on the stress level of his innings?
That was a nice start to end the season with but I’m still curious where he’s at in his development.
It’s also worth noting what fixed Thornton: the White Sox taught him a cutter, which became a significant weapon.
Actually, given Sky Kalkman’s analysis (including his comment that the cutter doesn’t seem to show a platoon split), that might be a pretty good idea for Morrow.
I’d trade both Felix and Morrow today.
Morrow is worth more this off season then he ever will be in the future. Let some other team see the promise and spend for it.
Felix is just not going to be a lifetime Mariner. He just had the season of a lifetime and even though he may have many more seasons just like this one (not guaranteed) we won’t be able to keep him forever.
What kind of haul could we bring in for those two players separately? A RSS+ type arm to replace him in the rotation, and a real DH would just begin the conversations.
What’s an RSS+? Is that some kind of Twitter aggregator?
“If” we can find a team who truly believes in Morrow’s future and is willing to pay for it, I have no problem trading him. But chances are that we won’t get much back right now. I think it’s worth the risk to keep him around and hope that his value increases. Then we can decide what to do with him. He’s had “some” success in the major leagues and that’s more than is likely for 90% of the current minor leaguers. I’d like to see if he can build on that success.
You talk about sustainable improvements in command but a decent portion of Morrow’s command problems are based in fear. A start like last night where our defense helped him out could help calm his fears and allow him to trust his stuff.
There is also the fact that some of his pitches just didn’t get used much until halfway through this year. He’s still figuring things out.
It’s hard to believe that, with everything that went wrong for Morrow this year, that you’re willing to write him completely off as a lost cause akin to Carlos Silva. It sounds irrational to me. Prospects are frustrating. Get used to it.
You talk about sustainable improvements in command but a decent portion of Morrow’s command
problems are based in fear.
You have absolutely no way of knowing this. You’re just making crap up.
It’s hard to believe that, with everything that went wrong for Morrow this year, that you’re willing to write him completely off as a lost cause akin to Carlos Silva.
You can’t possibly get this conclusion out of the post.
Prospects are frustrating. Get used to it.
You know what is actually frustrating? Stupid commenters.
@ ivan & EC on Matt Thornton – Remember that Thornton had not performed well at all the season before he was traded (6.63 BB/9, 6.20 FIP), and wasn’t looking likely to make the team coming out of Spring Training in 2006 (he was traded in ST, IIRC) but was out of options. That was a reasonable move – they got back exactly the kind of talented enigma as they were giving up. The fact that it worked out well for the Tigers and not the Mariners doesn’t really mean it was a bad deal. Perhaps they could have targeted somebody better than Joe Borchard, but again, at the time Borchard had at least been a prospect at one point.
@ BlackHaloBender – I certainly hope that “the conversations” would have a significant backstory, because a “RRS+” and a DH is not nearly enough. Maybe not even for Morrow alone, certainly not for Felix. The haul beyond that would have to be HUGE to do what you are suggesting.
@Mike Snow lol. I meant RRS+.
@Pete Livengood I meant exactly what I said. “Begin the conversation” Meaning we would get that then start talking about multiple high end prospects. We could increase run production next year, and steal an entire organization’s farm system.
What’s frustrating is watching a great game last night and coming on here only to be greeted by a wave of pessimism.
There are reasons to be dubious of Morrow’s future. All that I’m saying is that there are also reasons for hope. No one can know what’s going to happen for certain.
Point well taken Dave.
With that said, it’s not exactly unusual for power-pitchers to have difficulties with control early in their careers and then finding at least a modicum of success later in life.
Certainly there are plenty of cautionary Gaudin’s and De La Rosa’s in baseball, but there are also guys like the aforementioned Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and some dude named Grienke.
I’m not saying that Morrow has turned a corner here, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to have him get shelled in his next outing (Does he have another start?) But guys who throw blistering heat and are nigh untouchable when they can find the plate, all while earning pre-arbitration paychecks are not players you force a deadline on until you have to.
I think this start is nothing but an encouraging sign that Morrow still has the upside that got him drafted where he was.
White Sox, Pete. But I take your point.
If you want fanboy stupidity, go somewhere else.
Meaning we would get that then start talking about multiple high end prospects.
I would think the way to start the conversation is to target the high-end prospects first, then talk about the players that fill out the package. George Sherrill wasn’t the guy the Orioles focused on in the Bedard trade.
@Dave
Reading over my initial comment, I apologize for being antagonistic. I was just feeling good for once about Morrow and would have liked to have seen my feelings mirrored a bit by other people. That being said, what you said in your post wasn’t wrong but it’s also fairly circumstantial. Morrow’s situation is different from other pitchers and the low percentage of success for those pitchers doesn’t necessarily reflect Morrow’s future.
Like I said, I have no problem trading Morrow for a good haul but I’m afraid (probably due to the past management) that he’s going to be traded for peanuts.
You have absolutely no way of knowing that. You can presume all the certainty you want, but I could claim with equal certainty that he’s going to be worth more at the end of next season than he is now, and it would be just as foundationless.
Forever? No. But: Sabathia will be getting $23M for each of the next 6 years. The M’s were willing to pay Carlos Freaking Silva half that, and he’s not half the pitcher Felix is. They probably can’t get rid of Silva’s contract, but he’s gone in 3 years. Beltre has a similar contract, and he’s as good as gone now. That’s $23M right there. Zduriencik has been clearing the deck all season, and you have to wonder what that salary headroom is for — will he be shopping the (relatively weak-looking) free agent market, or will he be making an offer to the best non-free agent available? Players generally take a bit of a discount to buy out their arbitration years; nobody can expect a deal as team-friendly as Longoria’s, but it’s not unreasonable to expect Felix and his agent to forgo top market rates to bring his pay-day (and the contract after that) in by a couple of years (time value of money, etc). Having 20% of your payroll locked up in a once-in-five-days player is a risk in itself, of course, even before injuries; that’s what makes this a tough call.
I definitely think Zduriencik should explore offers for Felix in the offseason, but it’s not a forgone conclusion that they can’t find a way to afford him up for the next 4-6 years (and all the risk that goes with it, of course) if that’s what they want to do. After that, yeah — assuming he’s healthy and still King — he’ll be out of the price range of all but those northeastern bastards.
@ ivan & EC on Matt Thornton – Remember that Thornton had not performed well at all the season before he was traded (6.63 BB/9, 6.20 FIP), and wasn’t looking likely to make the team coming out of Spring Training in 2006 (he was traded in ST, IIRC) but was out of options. That was a reasonable move – they got back exactly the kind of talented enigma as they were giving up. The fact that it worked out well for the Tigers and not the Mariners doesn’t really mean it was a bad deal. Perhaps they could have targeted somebody better than Joe Borchard, but again, at the time Borchard had at least been a prospect at one point.
That’s sort of my point about “not nailing down a MLB job”. I don’t see anything wrong with cutting bait on someone after 7 years, when they haven’t played their way onto a MLB roster. At some point, you can’t give 5th chances.
I meant exactly what I said. “Begin the conversation†Meaning we would get that then start talking about multiple high end prospects. We could increase run production next year, and steal an entire organization’s farm system.
You do realize Felix’s production for 2010 is as a 6-7 WAR player, right? So you think we’re going to get MORE than that in players who can contribute to the 2010 M’s MLB roster, AND raid a farm system? I tend to suspect unless you get Bavasi-style incompetence at dealmaking, you are much more likely to get decent present value or better future value at a discount, not both.
At least I’m feeling confident that if Morrow is traded, it will be for a fair return. Likewise, if another team has a very high opinion of Morrow, Z won’t turn down a great offer.
Such a difference from the previous regime. Hard to get used to it.
@joser “After that, yeah — assuming he’s healthy and still King — he’ll be out of the price range of all but those northeastern bastards.” — Yeah, that’s what I was thinking. Plus our defense is so good we turn RRS/Washburn/etc into perfectly good pitchers. The team would be better off with another RRS + an Evan Longoria then Felix and Hall.
I’m confused, how is Morrow so different from Felix a couple of years ago? I know Felix is younger but both had really high potential. It took a few years for Felix to pan out why wouldn’t we want to wait on Morrow? Is he viewed as having a lower ceiling or is there something else I am missing?
Randy Johnson led the league in walks through his 26, 27, and 28 year seasons.
Would getting rid of Morrow right now really be selling high? Or would it just be getting rid of a player that people are frustrated about?
Also, if you thought Dave’s post was overly negative, please read it again.
I’m confused, how is Morrow so different from Felix a couple of years ago?
Felix has a sinking fastball, while Morrow’s is arrow-straight. Felix has a lights out change-up, while Morrow has an okay one that he doesn’t use very often. Felix has command of his breaking balls. Morrow does not.
It’s like comparing Jose Lopez to Chase Utley. They’re both second baseman with power, but the comparison ends there.
Randy Johnson led the league in walks through his 26, 27, and 28 year seasons.
This is the entire of “dreaming” that I’m talking about. Yes, there’s a possibility that Brandon Morrow becomes an all-star starting pitcher. It’s just really unlikely. If you collect all the good stuff, bad command starters, you’ll end up with 99 disappointments and one good pitcher.
True on the dreaming part. Was more trying to think of an obvious example for an earlier commenter stating that we should trade Morrow.
Wasn’t advocating that he would turn into Randy Johnson.
I think the best way of looking at it is if ONE of Snell, RRS and Morrow turns into a pretty good mid-rotation pitcher, we’ll be doing OK, and we should do cartwheels if it’s two of them.
I’d like to think that last night wasn’t just a fluke. It looked very similar to the start Morrow had last year against the Yankee’s. Although they didn’t make it to the playoff’s last year they still had some power in the lineup and not just a bunch of slap hitters. Also the A’s had been on quite the tear in September so I wouldn’t dismiss his outing being due to a poor hitting lineup.
If Morrow can keep a good mix on his pitches his fastball can be arrow straight and still be effective. I don’t see a problem there and that’s exactly what he did last night. Mixing it up and striking people out.
For those calling for the trade of Felix. How is that a good move? Safeco is a pitchers park and a pitcher like Felix is extremely rare. You want to hold on to those…. not trade em away.
By the way, for those interested, here’s the all-time list of pitchers who accumulated at least 150 innings before age 25 and had a BB/9 of 5.5 or higher at that point in their career. Morrow’s is 5.83 right now, by the way.
61 pitchers on the list. The successes – Nolan Ryan, Johnny Van Der Meer, Lefty Grove, and J.R. Richard if you ignore the fact that his career was over at age 30.
That’s it. There are a bunch of Bobby Witt/Jason Bere/Seth McClung/Daniel Cabrera types, who just never figured it out.
4 out of 60. Do you like those odds?
Ivan – yes, White Sox. I knew that, at some level meant that, and yet I still wrote “Tigers.” Gettin’ old and feeble-minded.
Dave – 4 out of 60 is better than 1 out of 100.
Seriously, though, point well taken.
The nice thing about the start last night is maybe you get a team in the off-season that sees that line and believes in Morrow’s potential and you can sell him for something decent.
I agree with Dave, I think the odds are still long that Morrow becomes a top of the rotation starter. But I am glad he did well for the team and for the possibility of having a more attractive asset in the Winter for the M’s to move.
Yeah Dave was overly pessimistic with that 1 out of 100 claim (yes I recognize that it was a figure of speech, not meant to be an actual quantitative statement). “Less than 1 out of 10 chance” though would’ve been a more accurate way to put it.
(Actually, how many of those 60 had Morrow’s velocity and K rates … wouldn’t surprise me if Morrow’s chances are better than 1 out of 10, though probably not by much.)
4 out of 60. Do you like those odds?
Lloyd: “So, you’re saying there’s a chance . . .”
Sure Morrow likely will not become a TOR starter. However, what are his chances of developing into a useful piece?
Where is Morrow in our pitching depth chart? There are a lot of pitchers on the M’s I would rather see go than Brandon.
Gil Meche is an interesting comp for Morrow from the M’s recent past. What are Morrow’s chances of reaching Meche’s level? I agree with whoever said selling Morrow now would not be selling high. He needs to have some sustained good performance before you can hope to get anything of value for him.
Felix’s FIP through his career: 2.85, 3.91, 3.75, 3.80, 3.12.
Morrow’s FIP through his (short) career: 4.19, 4.40, 5.04.
They don’t look very close to me.
Now, you can look at Grienke, and see this: 4.70, 4.49, 5.04, 3.74, 3.56, 2.31.
There’s two significant drops there. One happened to be his age 23 year (same as Felix this year) and the other age 25.
Now I bring up Grienke in case someone has the idea that Morrow possibly figuring out how to effectively deal with his diabetes as a starter equates to Zack getting his head back on straight. A case could be made for that, but it’s jumping to a lot of unsupported conclusions.
I think it’s more likely that Zack’s command straightened out at age 23 (he dropped from 4.26 bb/9 to 2.66) and again this year (just below 2) while increasing his K/9 every season.
If we see some equivalent improvement in Morrow’s control, say a drop from his current 5.6 to under 4, then some of the promise might come out. He’ll have to keep the K/9 up around 9 or higher, though.
Well, if you add in Brandon’s H/9 (under 7.5) and K/9 (over 9), you get 5 players.
John Rocker
Nolan Ryan
Matt Mantei
Herb Score
Brandon Morrow
All were pretty successful stat-wise. Rocker got demoted and traded due to his idiocy. Who knows how much that affected his pitching later on. Mantei was really good until his many injuries started. Herb Score dominated the league for a few years until getting his faced smashed and almost blinded by a baseball and was never the same again.
I’d say Morrow’s chances of success are okay. Much better than 4 out of 60, baring injury.
And sometimes, too, a pitcher improves by having a change of scenery. Fresh set of eyes to adjust things more, perhaps to help with the control issues, and a different voice that the player is somehow able to hear better.
Indeed, Morrow’s still got some value and some potential. I’d have no problem if they traded him to another team, and if he finds success there it wouldn’t surprise me.
Just like with Lopez – you pretty know what you’re going to get. He’s got some value so you don’t trade him just to trade him. But you also don’t hold onto him because you think he might be the second coming of Nolan Ryan…
Yeah, Actually I do like those odds. You can’t get 4 out of 60 pitchers that good out of just about any prospect pool. You’ve got 2 hall of famers, the only pitcher to ever throw back to back no hitters, and a dominent pitcher that had his career cut short by injuries.
We don’t know whether Morrow will ever pan out, but I’m willing to bet you’d be writing posts like this about Randy Johnson when he was 25.
BB/9 k/BB
Johnson 5.38 1.35
Morrow 5.68 1.43
Show me what pool of pitchers can get the likes of Nolan Ryan, Lefty Grove and JR Richard at higher rates than 4/60.
Yes, it is tempting to think Morrow is “ready” to be the #2, but maybe it is more accurate to describe some of us as giddy that his upside still seems to include the possibility that he could be the #2.
I think it’s more likely that Zack’s command straightened out at age 23 (he dropped from 4.26 bb/9 to 2.66) and again this year (just below 2) while increasing his K/9 every season.
If we see some equivalent improvement in Morrow’s control, say a drop from his current 5.6 to under 4, then some of the promise might come out. He’ll have to keep the K/9 up around 9 or higher, though.
Brandon Morrow has always had control problems. Zack Greinke has not. He’s posted a BB/9IP over 3 once in his entire career MLB and MiLB that’s a pretty bad comparison Morrow and Greinke.
Yeah, Actually I do like those odds. You can’t get 4 out of 60 pitchers that good out of just about any prospect pool. You’ve got 2 hall of famers, the only pitcher to ever throw back to back no hitters, and a dominent pitcher that had his career cut short by injuries.
You’re too wrapped up in his potential/upside… Like Dave said it can make you dream but point being the chances Morrow ever makes it to the top aren’t encouraging. The chance he becomes a fixture in the rotation are more encouraging, I like Morrow and I want to see him pitch well but he still has a long way to go.
well, isn’t that what we should be looking at? The team needs rotation fixtures, too and getting 4 starters out of top 10 draft choices isn’t that high, either (or am I missing something?).
Kazinski beat me to it. That list looks like a pretty decent pool to draw from, especially for a guy who’s as cheap as Morrow is. He costs practically nothing, and, as Mekias pointed out (narrowing the field with additional relevant stats), the odds look pretty good.
I sort of feel like if Morrow were pitching for the Pirates and out of favor, he’d be someone we’d be targeting in trade.
well, isn’t that what we should be looking at? The team needs rotation fixtures, too and getting 4 starters out of top 10 draft choices isn’t that high, either (or am I missing something?).
The fact that Morrow is still not a fixture is something and the fact that he has so many issues preventing him form doing so as well… Morrow is a big gamble that can bring out big rewards but one may beg the question will he ever reach it.
I sort of feel like if Morrow were pitching for the Pirates and out of favor, he’d be someone we’d be targeting in trade.
We tried that with Ian Snell and he’s basically doing what Morrow is doing.
That’s not begging the question.
Dave, your basic premise might be true, but you don’t do it any justice by cherry-picking. Score, Belinsky, Turley and Mitch Williams were all premium level pitchers before getting derailed by line drives or strippers or whatever…
That’s not begging the question.
I meant to say ask but beg sounded cooler.
Uh so how bout this.
Me:Brandon Morrow is a very good pitcher
DMZ:Why is that?
Me:Because he has high potential
DMZ:How will he reach said potential?
Me:Because he’s a very good pitcher.
That is my basic knowledge of begging the question… Circular reasoning…
Mekias had a very good point:
Well, if you add in Brandon’s H/9 (under 7.5) and K/9 (over 9), you get 5 players.
Dave’s initial search that retreived 61 players was unfair. Scanning the list it appeared that half of those guys had more walks than strikeouts. That is certainly not Brandon Morrow. I’d be interested to see how the list looked with just walks and strikeouts considered (but can’t because I’m not a subscriber). I bet it would still look pretty good.
Gaudin 75 Starts
Morrow 15 Starts
Someone’s just not paying attention. Useless comparison.
In the interest of relevant peripheral stats for Morrow:
Season LD% GB% FB%
2007 17.6% 35.2% 47.3%
2008 16.2% 33.1% 50.6%
2009 20.1% 37.3% 42.6%
Morrow has decreased his FB%, raised his GB%–and, in a very small fashion, increased his IFFB%.
Sorry, Dave. Forget “stupid fanboy” stuff. We don’t expect that from you, and we don’t want it. But we do demand a bit better than gross cherrypicking pessimism, which is what you’ve given us the entire second half of the season.
Before spring training, here’s what you said: “The guys that you want on the roster, without question, are Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Heilman, and Rowland-Smith. Those five should come to camp with significant job security.”
Wow, so little faith after a really small sample size this season…
In the early going, you referred to Morrow as follows: “The one guy in the bullpen we shouldn’t have had to worry about, Morrow’s command fell apart and his reliance on one pitch turned him into a home run machine. However, relievers are finicky, and it doesn’t take much for them to fix their problems and see the performances shift quickly. Morrow’s still the best arm the team has in the bullpen, and he should be able to add +0.5 wins in the second half of the year, a nice little improvement from the -0.3 wins he contributed so far.”
So, the +0.5 wins in the second half of the year would bring him to a +.02 WAR, right? According to Fangraphs…that’s exactly what he posted–after spending time in Tacoma and on the DL. Wow, so in less time than you actually gave him, he posted exactly what you estimated.
Later, when the team decided (quite randomly) to start Morrow instead of sending him to Tacoma, you wrote this:
Okay, so he was always supposed to be a starter, the team screwed up his development, and this year the front office didn’t help…but let’s still jump on the “Morrow sucks” bandwagon, even though, as a starter, Morrow has posted 3.7 RAR in 51.1 innings. Not good, sure, but also really fracked up by your own analysis at the time of the conversion.
On his second start back, in San Diego, you wrote “The Brandon Morrow Experience continues today with a start against the hapless Padres in a park perfectly suited for his skills. Seriously, if he can’t throw strikes today – in Petco, against a bad offense, with no designated hitter – then he’s just physically incapable of throwing strikes.”
Morrow threw 62.2% strikes on 74 pitches in 4 innings. I hate to break it to you Dave, but you’ve been ridiculously shortsighted and pessimistic ever since Morrow returned. Go back, address the sample size, put in other relevant stats and relevant history, including the season as a whole, and reevaluate.
Is Morrow Felix 2.0? No. You lobbied–lobbyed very hard–for the M’s to get Snell, calling him “Morrow with less velocity.” If we want Snell, we want Morrow, assuming they’re identical pitchers…which is something of a fallacy given the age and development gap.You had Morrow behind Snell and RRS on a 10-man SP depth chart. Heck, at age 23, Morrow’s been better than Snell: Fangraphs’ player comp graphs.
The sun’ll come out
to Morrow,
bet your bottom dollar that
to Morrow
There’ll be sun!
Just thinkin’ about
to Morrow,
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
‘Til there’s none!
To Morrow! To Morrow!
We love you,
To Morrow!
You’re always
a start away!