The Foundation
As the M’s come up with their off-season plan of action, there’s one significant evaluation that has to take place, and be accurate, or the plan will not succeed. That most necessary step is an evaluation of what the team already has on hand and how competitive they could be with the currently assembled roster, so that they know what they’re building from. As mentioned below, you can’t just assume that the team is starting from an 85 win benchmark and is attempting to build off of that, as there are numerous variables from 2009 that won’t carry over into 2010 – most notably, players on the team that won’t be returning, both good and bad.
In order to know both the kinds of moves to make and the magnitude of the work necessary, the M’s have to know how much talent they already have. We did this a few months ago, but let’s revisit the issue now that we have a bit more information about the roster as assembled.
That’s essentially what the M’s have in house right now. Total WAR from that group? +27.25, which would make them team something like a 75-87 club. The offense would be painful to watch yet again, and the pitching would take a step back. Some expected regression from Gutierrez and Ichiro costs the team a couple of wins as well.
So, that’s where the M’s stand right now. They need to add somewhere between 15 and 20 wins to the roster this winter – that’s a pretty significant challenge. The group above would cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 million, give or take $5 million on either side due to uncertainty surrounding the salaries of the arbitration eligible guys (Felix, Gutierrez, Aardsma, Lowe).
That gives the M’s about $25 million to spend this winter. So, the team is looking at having to pay about $1.7 million per win. Wins cost between $4 and $5 million apiece in free agency, so obviously, just trying to buy players isn’t going to work. The M’s are going to have continue to get some a lot of bang for their buck if they’re going to get into the 90+ win arena for 2010.
That’s why the decisions about whether to try to bring back players like Jack Wilson and Adrian Beltre are a bit trickier than just looking at value produced divided by the cost of contract. In terms of market value, Beltre’s on field production is worth something like $10-$15 million for next year. Due to his poor season, he’ll almost certainly sign for less than that. However, if the M’s give Beltre, say, $8 million, they’ve bought an additional two wins, but at a price of $4 million apiece.
Realistically, the team can’t afford to spend 33% of its budget at a $4 million per win asset, when their target for the entire budget has to be $1.7 million per win. If you add those extra two wins and subtract $8 million from the budget, now the team would have to buy 13-18 wins with just $17 million. The rest of their moves would have to bring in wins at almost $1 million apiece, which is really, really hard to do.
So, the M’s have some tough decisions to make. Even if Adrian Beltre wants to return, they probably can’t afford to bring him back even at a discount unless they were willing to move the Hannahan/Hall platoon over to shortstop and say goodbye to Jack Wilson. There’s basically no way the team can have both Beltre and Wilson back next year. It’s an either/or proposition.
In lieu of more reliable veterans, the M’s are going to have to take some risks and have them pay off. Whether it’s going with a Hannahan/Hall platoon at third, trading Lopez for value and giving Tui a shot at second, or forgoing the big bat at 1B/DH and giving Carp a shot at regular playing time, they’re going to have to take a risk at one everyday position (maybe more) and hope someone develops faster than they might have expected. They just don’t have the cash to upgrade every single spot that’s currently held by a below average player.
15 to 20 wins for $25 million. That’s the bottom line of what this off-season needs to produce, and that likely means turning to the trade market, where a GM with a good eye for undervalued talent can get wins cheaper than through free agency. The M’s need to hit another home run in trade and get another high quality, low cost player on the team. If they don’t, it’s going to be tough to win next year.
I can’t imagine what this process would be like for teams that have even less money to spend.
Well, to be fair, a large part of the reason the M’s are hamstrung financially is because they’re paying $12 million to Silva and $8 million to Johjima, so they’re surrendering $20 million of their payroll for essentially no value.
The M’s have operate on a $100 million payroll next year, but it’s effectively an $80 million payroll thanks to those two bad contracts.
I like this as a baseline. Obviously you are building in regression for everyone who did really well (Felix, Ichiro!, Gutierrez) and are not banking on significant improvement from anyone else (Saunders, Carp, Morrow, Snell). Barring injuries to the big names, this is basically a “worst case scenario”.
However, it is worth noting that the upside of the current roster is certainly better than the downside. Saunders could be a 2 WAR guy, Morrow could take a step forward, Snell could gain some consistency, etc.
So while the baseline of the current roster isn’t great, there is a little bit of upside. And I think realistically, even with a good offseason, it will be hard to contend next year without someone like Saunders, Snell, or Morrow exceeding the above expectations.
Is it unrealistic to assume Felix will be at least a 6 WAR, Ichiro at least a 5 WAR, and Guti at least a 4 WAR? Based off their production this year, your WAR projections seem quite cautious. (-1.8 for Felix, -1.1 for Ichi, and -2.2 for Guti)
Projections involve the future, which adds a significant amount of uncertainty, and thus, you have to be guarded with your expectations. Felix has put up a +6 win season once in four years. If you expect him to do it again, you’re probably going to be disappointed.
He could do it, certainly. But a projection is a blend of the likely outcomes, and just like he could post a +6 win season, he could blow out his arm and be worth nothing. Or he could lose command of his fastball for a few weeks and pitch more like the ’06-’08 version than the ’09 version we just saw.
You don’t project best case scenario or worst case scenario. Expected value is a blend of all possible outcomes.
Are the projections based on any particular system or is it a best guess on your part?
And that’s something I’ve been really interested in, lately: Variance. (I’ve been interested as it applies to board game design and dice rolling, so it’s a little different. But I digress.)
I think the argument that Dave’s making can be summed up as: The M’s are going to have a difficult time making up ground on the Angels just by fielding a good team. They need to increase their variance, and thus the range of possible results, to have a chance to go to the playoffs.
Next year’s Mariners can’t just hope to spend effectively and hope to compete. They have to run some intelligent risks. Therefore, we’re going to see some guys like Tui, Saunders and/or Carp get chances.
I’m anxious and interested to see what our beloved GM can pull off on the trade market, too. He pulls another Gutierrez-quality deal, and this conversation gets much easier.
I think Hyphen can be better than a 1.5 WAR pitcher. I’ve been very impressed with him this year. If we’re lucky, one of our young pitchers also steps up and improves.
I’d be more inclined to avoid free agency with our pitching staff and hope for the best.
I’m not so confident with our hitters. Carp is only one who seemed comfortable against big league pitching but he’s also playing at the position that’s easiest and cheapest to upgrade. Getting rid of Lopez isn’t a wise move at this point so that leaves SS, 3B, and LF. I’m not thrilled with any of our current options at those positions but I’m open to Saunders in LF as a young, upside player. I don’t think Hannahan or Hall have any upside and Jack Wilson is an expensive way to get 2 WAR.
Is there any one site / source that identifies the most movable pieces on a given team right now? Apart from keeping up with the typical hot stove stories I don’t know of one.
The list of free agents is straightforward to process, but there’s nothing nearly so simple for potential trades / trading partners. Especially when Z has demonstrated a willingness to be a bit creative. Theoretically, almost anyone can be had from any club for the right price…
Looking at it, Beltre is worth 2 wins but we can replace him with a youngster that offers 1 win for peanuts. The bigger hole is at SS where we have Josh Wilson and 500 PA’s for Replacement level. And, yeah, Johjim and Silva…UGLY!! Any chance the M’s can just buy out Joh?
Do we treat the $100 million payroll as a constant, though? I mean, is there room for Zduriencik to go in to ask for more operating cashola?
I realize that’s probably not a palatable option for Zduriencik, but feasibly, could it happen?
I also see nothing in the free agent market worth surrendering the 18th pick, on the surface.
But I do see a number of guys that likely won’t be offered arby, and might well be worth 1-year, couple-mil gambles.
Orlando Hudson comes to mind here, but I’m not gonna go into rosterbatory scenarios.
Time to see the extent of Z’s sorcery.
Beltre’s worth more like 3 wins. He’s two wins better than a Hannahan/Hall platoon.
We shouldn’t assume that the team will substantially increase payroll.
Are we certain, at this point, that Johjima’s only a 1/2 win player? ‘Cuz he’s flashed more than that on occasion.
That could be a good spot to run a risk. He’s a sunk cost anyway. Run him out there and see if old Joh comes back.
Alternatively, it could be that Johjima’s one of those guys that just gets punished by Safeco, and could thrive elsewhere. That might make him a chip in a deal to another team, but I can’t see that he’d command much in return with that contract.
So Dave, just how/who exactly should we target? Are you going to come up with some offseason plan?
Also, if the economy recovers between now and, oh, January, we may be able to bump up that $25 mil up to $30 mil, especially since Jack has shown he can be responsible with the money.
I agree with Dave about the need to gamble somewhere and to find value in trades. I think that’s the only viable path to success, and it’s not going to be a guaranteed path either.
And it really, really hurts to carry a 0.5 WAR starting C. Playoff teams have to average alomst +3 WAR per starting position, and having Johnson at C cancels out a 2009-level Franklin Gutierrez.
But, upgrading C would be just one more strain on the budget, so I guess I’ll just sit back and not worry about it.
Johjima could gain us some WAR if he’s the starter again but that’s never going to happen. Wak is convinced (and he may be right) that Rob Johnson’s game calling is worth more wins than Johjima’s bat.
Oh, one thing about Silva, at this point he becomes an interesting gamble, since we’re basically writing off his salary as a sunk (and how) cost. But if he is healthy, he has the potential to be a +2-3 WAR starter (with luck, remember we’re talking gambles here). The list of SP we can roll the dice on is pretty long – none of them (Silva, Snell, Olson, Jak, Fister, Vargas) by themselves are guys you’d want to stake a season on, but collectively there’s a reasonable chance of getting 50 or 60 good starts out of that group.
What would be the financial liability if Johjima decides to not return to the M’s this coming season? I still think it would be the M’s parting ways with Johjima and not his own decision. If that is the case, and the M’s do “cut” Johjima; we would then be responsible for his salary correct?
What about Milton Bradley? I wonder if the M’s could trade Silva for Bradley (salaries are comparable). Any there other contracts that could be swapped for Silva’s?
Will there really be a team that will give Beltre $8 million bucks? Didn’t Crede make something like $3 million this year on a one year contract? He’s a 2 WAR guy.
I know there were questions about Crede’s back, but frankly there’s got to be some pretty big red flags getting raised about Beltre’s bat.
I was really hoping they could do something creative with Beltre like a one year $5 million deal and allow him to play for another big payday or if he prefers give him security for three years at something like $13-14 mil, back loaded for flexibility now (bulk to be paid when the Joh/Silva mess ends).
The projection assumes that Felix will be back next year, so it could get worse. If he is traded, then all bets are off.
So Dave, other than Lopez (and perhaps a higher-trade-value surplus middle-rotation pitcher and maybe one of Rob Johnson/Adam Moore if Kenji stays) who should we not be surprised to see moved? Who else is there? After Lopez, probably Morrow, and the young catchers, where do you find bait value unless you start talking about guys like Ichiro and Aardsma? Maybe Lowe, but the other bullpen guys probably aren’t going to bring that much return, no?
A couple of notes on your list. First, you list Josh (or “Jo” anyway) Wilson as a replacement level player, but then talk about Jack Wilson (as in, keep eiher Jack Wilson or Beltre, but not both). I’m not sure if you are counting Wilson’s option (or some lesser, assumed negotiated salary on an extension) when figuring committed dollars or not. I would guess that, even on an extension, you can’t get Wilson for much less than $6M for next year, and even if he can live up to his 3-year WAR average of 2.0 (iffy at his age and switching leagues), you’re still a ways over your target of $1.7M per win. Does that mean you move on, at least if you can’t get him for, say, $5M for next year?
I have a hard time believing that, if Kenji and Johnson both get 300 PA, that they will both be 0.5 WAR players. Kenji was a 1.0 WAR player in 258 WAR this year…. Agree that 0.5 seems about right for Johnson, who was 0.4 WAR over 290 PA this year.
I also think the M’s should be able to get more than 1.00 WAR out of whoever gets the bulk of time in LF. If Langerhans can get 0.75 in 150 AB and Saunders can only get to 1.00 over 500, I’d have to expect that Langerhans will get more playing time than 150 AB. In 2009, we got 1.5 WAR combined from Balentien, Chavez, Langerhans and Saunders (600 PA collectively). Something was clearly sacrificed to get Saunders PT once the M’s were out of it (he was -0.1 WAR, lower even than Balentien, and was 0.7 WAR lower than Langerhans in a pretty similar number of PA); that won’t happen next year if the performance differences they displayed – and you are projecting – continue. Also, I expect there is a possibility that Ackley may be ready enough to contribute 0.75 WAR over 100-150 PA next year, if the LF situation is this bad.
These are nit-picky, I realize. Obviously they need a couple of career-type years and some home-run trades to get the 15-20 wins they probably need.
Even with trades that budget is going to be a killer, because this team is built so cheaply. Can’t just swap players who have equivalent value and equivalent contracts. In trade the Ms are going to have to take on some decent-sized contracts, unless they seriously horse-trade their way to it getting a +1 WAR player here, a +1.5 WAR player there. I don’t think there’s enough in the majors or the farm to do that.
That is, unless they can get their trade partner to eat part of the cost of someone coming in. Fielder or Cameron from the Brewers, for example, must be prohibitively expensive unless the Ms managed to make the Brewers eat a bunch of that 8-10 mil owed to each of them.
But then I’d think the Ms would have to throw in enough other players from their side that the net increase in WAR isn’t around the 1.7 mil per win that Dave projects.
Liam, if the M’s trade Felix this off-season, I would hope the haul you’d get could collectively be worth the 5 WAR you’d be losing (not all in one player, mind you). If he’s traded next July, you should still see a significant haul, but it also doesn’t matter as much because if he’s moved at the deadline I’m guessing that means the M’s are out of contention.
J.J. Hardy is still my favorite trade candidate this offseason. He’s had a down year and Escobar is ready to take over as the full time SS. Combine that with Jack Z’s ties to Milwaukee and he’s almost perfect buy-low candidate for us.
Are we certain, at this point, that Johjima’s only a 1/2 win player? ‘Cuz he’s flashed more than that on occasion.
Catchers age really poorly.
f that is the case, and the M’s do “cut†Johjima; we would then be responsible for his salary correct?
Yep. The only way the M’s get out of Johjima’s contract is if he asks to be released from the deal.
Will there really be a team that will give Beltre $8 million bucks? Didn’t Crede make something like $3 million this year on a one year contract? He’s a 2 WAR guy.
Crede has a debilitating back problem. They aren’t comparable situations.
You have to know a team like Boston is itching at the opportunity to bring in Beltre as an undervalued asset and let him pound balls off the monster.
First, you list Josh (or “Jo†anyway) Wilson as a replacement level player, but then talk about Jack Wilson (as in, keep eiher Jack Wilson or Beltre, but not both).
The above does not include Jack Wilson. If his option is picked up, the team would be something like a 77 win team with $17 million to spend. That’s why I don’t think the option will be picked up – they’ll either re-sign him to a deal that lowers his 2010 payday or he’ll leave.
In 2009, we got 1.5 WAR combined from Balentien, Chavez, Langerhans and Saunders (600 PA collectively).
The bulk of that WAR is from insanely high UZR numbers. The M’s got a +19.4 UZR from their left fielders this year. You can’t count on that being repeated.
“That’s why I don’t think the option will be picked up – they’ll either re-sign him to a deal that lowers his 2010 payday or he’ll leave”
You’d have to think Wilson is thinking the same thing. Won’t he just sit tight and hope for free agency? If the M’s do pick up the option its not like it closes the door on talking extension before the season starts.
It doesn’t seem like Jack would have traded for Jack just to be a half-season rental. Zduriencik seems to really like Jack Wilson as a player… I would consider it a bit of a surprise if Jack Wilson isn’t at Shortstop in 2010.
If he and Beltre are mutually exclusive, then Beltre’s departure was probably a foregone conclusion when the trade was made.
Why even trade for Jack Wilson if you’re not going to pick up his option? They could have gave up nothing and signed him as a free agent. I can see why Dave wasn’t a big fan of this deal.
Fielder’s 2010 is for $10.5mil, Cameron’s club option is for $10mil. (According to Cot’s.)
If Fielder regresses from his 6.6 WAR season to something around 5, that slots him at about $2mil/win–not badly over the $1.7mil Dave is projecting. If Cameron plays like Cameron–another 4+ WAR season, which is what he’s posted 5 of the last 8 years with only two seasons sub-3.2 (and one of those was a 76-game 2005 after that ugly collision with Beltran, so I guess that projects to 4.0, too)–then he’s $2.5mil/win.
Fielder’s actually the better value. Didn’t see that one coming…
Although could anyone FATHOM the awesomeoness of a Cammy/Guti/Ichiro! outfield? It’d be like a 2-hour highlight reel every single day…
Dave, great analysis, and I imagine I’ll be linking back to it as the offseason progresses.
I still think a full season of a Beltre/Jack Wilson left side of an infield would be simply the most wonderful thing to experience. And I imagine Felix agrees.
The option does give the M’s a little leverage in negotiations with Jack Wilson. Jack would want the M’s to pick up the option, it’s more than he would likely get in free agency. So the M’s can negotiate something for two years that would be less than the option in 2009 but still be a good deal for Jack.
I guess.
But I agree, that wasn’t that great of a deal. It was made from the perspective of a perceived shortage of talent at SS across the Majors. Anytime a deal is made with that mindset, bad things can happen (see KC and Yuni).
First, Dave, two days into the offseason thanks for already coming up with the basis on which the next five months of discussion should be based.
I agree that if we’re just paying market value for wins, there’s no way we can ‘buy’ what we need. Other than a possible undervalued asset like Matsui, there really isn’t anything there.
And as has been pointed out, trading equal value for equal value also doesn’t get us anywhere.
So the next option is the trade market, where hopefully Z can come up with undervalued assets, even if hoping for another Guti may be wishful thinking. But the process is the same–finding someone who is either blocked or otherwise ill-defined. For example, everyone ‘knew’ Branyan was only a platoon hitter.
One way to look at this is to find guys who for whatever reason underperformed their Marcels by .050 or more this year–Conor Jackson, Geovany Soto, Chris Davis, etc. But I doubt their clubs are ready to throw in the towel on these types of guys yet.
On the other hand, what the M’s really need to compete is a breakthrough player who ups his Marcels by .050 or more. Think Lind, Sandoval, Bartlett, Kendry Morales, and Kubel this year.
But I think the key is not just confining this approach to the trade market. Are there people in our own system who could also make a big jump next year?
That’s why I think we need to make a full year commitment to Saunders next year…just like I think we should have done with Clement this year. And that’s why I also favor Jack Wilson (hopefully at a reduced annual price) over Beltre–that gives us the chance to see if Tui can be that breakthrough player at third.
Like you said, we’ve got to take risks. But it’s got to be with our own players, not just the ones we dream of acquiring.
What is a realistic WAR projection for Adam Moore?
If we need to get 15 wins for $25 million, that’s seems nearly impossible. We’d have to get super lucky in our free agents/trades. It seems the better way to think about things is to think realistically what we can get for $25 million. Maybe 6-8 wins? And then be realistic and realize that this team isn’t going to be playoff caliber unless the base roster steps up with 7+ wins of upside. Being realistic about our chances sounds better from a planning perspective than trying to find some imaginary way to get 15 wins for $25 million.
In the last Future Forty, Dave had him down as 2.5 WAR when playing to his potential. I don’t think you could expect that from him in his first full year at the MLB level though.
So, actually, Dave, you’ve said here that you think the M’s need to run some risks and take some chances this year. Which of the players on the roster would you take a chance with, and which would you send back to AAA?
I guess what I’m asking is: Who’s the best candidate for a breakout? Saunders? Tui? Moore?
Thanks, Scot.
Thanks for the analysis. However, it is a little discouraging. How in the world are we supposed to find that many more wins? It’s not like you get players like Franklin Gutierrez every time you make a trade. It sounds like they’ll need to find two or three players like him!
I’m sure Dave will give his plan at some point. I’m curious to see what he comes up with.
Then the front office needs to find a way to sell the team as still rebuilding without calling it rebuilding, to have any hope of having decent attendance next year. 3rd in the west and 85 wins again, minus feel-good stories, isn’t going to get the casual fan out to the ballpark.
Realistically, continuing to improve in 2010 and shooting for playoffs in 2011 and beyond might be what the organization builds to. But I wonder if the fans who make up the majority of the Ms revenue will see anything less than the west / wild card next year as a failure.
If they brought Cammy here as the everyday left fielder I’d be pretty excited. I’d wonder what the org would be doing with Saunders, but I’d be pretty excited.
Would Cammy want to come back? Could he hit in Safeco this time around?
Maybe Jack Wilson is willing to take a 2 year contract, with a quarter of it salary going on 2010′s books and and three quarters onto 2011?
I’m not saying this is the right way to go, but it might buy us some flexibility now and push some 2010 costs into 2011 where we’ll have some more budget breathing room.
With that said, if it seems like a longshot to make the 2010 playsoffs, I’d rather not handcuff 2011′s team to make 2010 a bit less of a longshot.
Not to pick on you, and not that I don’t like Mike Cameron, but this is exactly the sort of move the team needs to NOT make to have a successful offseason.
Cameron isn’t likely to perform enough better than an asset we already have in-house (Saunders) to be worth spending ANY money on.
Even if Saunders got moved as part of a trade, the Mariners still have a glut of AAAA outfielders that could fill in reasonably well.
Left field is one of the last places they should be looking to spend money.
Of our young players, the best source of wins would easily be Adam Moore. He’s a career .301 minor league hitter with power and has been successful at every level. He already has a relationship with some of the younger pitchers. Ideally you want Rob Johnson as a backup catcher/Felix’s personal catcher. Pretty much anything Moore does with the bat is free wins.
But realistically it’s going to be hard to get rid of Johjima without paying his full contract and they aren’t willing to demote Rob Johnson, especially since the pitchers seem to love him.
Two questions about Felix: what’s a realistic arb number for him coming off a ~Cy Young level season and how does the ‘lock him up if you possibly can’ argument fit into all this?
Seems like if we did manage to get Felix signed to a longer term deal of even just a few years (2010 plus 2 say), we’ll be paying enough for 2010 that the available cash might shrink appreciably — pushing the $25 million slush fund year back to 2011, effectively, when Silva and Kenji finally go to Ms heaven.
I think the estimates are in the $10M range next year. Locking Felix up doesn’t necessarily mean paying him a ton more in his last two arb years. The real selling point to Felix would be eliminating the risk of pulling a Bedard by giving him a long-term contract that gurantees him the mondo dollars in the 4 to 6 years after 2011. He’s looking at a risk-reward scenario too. If he goes to FA, he’ll get more total dollars over the next few years than if he agrees to an M’s buyout, but he runs the risk of an injury that destroys his market value.
Well if the M’s have to rely on high upside/low $ risk guys, they could atleast repeat this years performance. There are usually guys who can produce something you lack, like Russ Branyan and his 30 home runs, if you are willing to tolerate the shortcomings that kept them from playing regularly elsewhere and allow them to be available cheap. That course allows for augmentations and deletions even during the season if the need arises. But they will have to pursue atleast a couple more established players.
Last year Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson were seriously mentioned along with many others, this year, they need to actually sign players like that. If the market is like last year, there will be many free agents looking for work after the first of the year at affordable price tags.
$10 million next for year will more than take out the $5 million of Kentucky windage Dave put into the original salary numbers to account for raises for Felix and a couple of others (I think Felix got $3.8 million this year). Add in a couple of million for the others and we’re closer to $20 million new money than $25 for 2010. Which was why I asked. Seems like the cheese is binding even a bit tighter than suggested provided we want to hang onto Felix — but if you don’t where the heck do you get 5 WAR (or more) for $10 million? Losing Felix early just compounds the problem unless Z brings in an unimaginable haul for him.
Gonna be some winter.
There’s going to be a live chat with Jack Zduriencik tomorrow at 12:00 PM over at the Seattle Times.
I accounted for Felix getting a lot of money. Don’t worry. I kind of know what I’m doing.
I’m not as statistically inclined as most, but I don’t understand how Tuiasosopo’s WAR value has increased from 0.5 to 1.0 in the span of 22 AB’s.
His projected playing time doubled.
Adding Prince Fielder alone could account for about one-third of those 15-20 wins, and at a not-unreasonable price tag for 2010. From a non-analytical view I believe Fielder would be a great fit for the M’s. I’d like to see the team keep Beltre and use Hall and Hannahan at SS, and try to work Tui at 2B.
SP-Erik Bedard! Then again it’s a question if he’s healthy or not… He’d probably throw maybe 160 innings max at this point. But he might be around 2-3 WAR. Bedard for a 1 year 1-3 million dollar contract, 2 wins for 2 million but it’s stil risky… Morrow/Snell REALLY need to step up to what fans think they’ll be, but 1-2 wins is what is realistic for those 2 at this point.
So much wins to accumulate but not enough money. Trade perhaps? Aardsma/Lowe in a Putz trade redux? I can only wish… I’ll stop now before I start rosterbating.
Great analysis and insight into the challenges facing the M’s this winter.
Seems like the focus of the comments has been around how to stretch our available $80 M payroll to create a playoff contender next year. Seems unlikely, magic from the great Z not withstanding.
Shouldn’t they (and we) be taking a longer view, how to create a winning dynasty that will last many years, which would imply different moves next year than reaching for the improbable stars in one season.
I agree DMac. You can’t squeeze blood out of a tone, or something like that. The real issue is contention to 2011, which puts far more emphasis on Felix (and maybe Guti, too). Not to write off 2010, but 2010 nmay be a year where 82-87 is good enough, you realize if things break your way you might win the division at 90-93, and you bulild from there.
Yes, yes and yes.
Trying to chase wins next year is, in my opinion, futile in and of itself. It leads to bad decision making.
Instead, ask what makes us contenders the year after next. Play to that end. Give young guys the chance to break through–including and especially Moore.
Don’t spend anything unnecessary this winter–save it for the next winter and then place your bet on Halladay or Derrek Lee or Cliff Lee or Vazquez or Webb or Crawford or Dunn or Mauer or whomever you think can really take us to the next level.
Nobody seems to have picked up on the math here. You say the M’s would be a 75-87 win team with the “current” roster – a wide spread centered on 81 wins – a .500 team.
Then you say they need 15-20 wins improvement. That would be 92 – 107 wins, taking the upper and lower ends of the ranges with the maximum spreads. 92 would have kept the M’s in the playoff hunt until the very end this year, and 107 is pretty close to all-time record, so it seems to me your standards are very high – unreasonably so.
It seems to me that 92 wins next year would safely get the M’s into the playoff hunt, even if not guaranteeing a playoff berth, which would be the upside of your “as-is” projection with a mere 5 win improvement.
Call that the optimistic view. Even the mid-point only requires an 11 win improvement to make 92 wins.
So could you clarify the basis on which you declare they need to improve 15-20 wins?
That’s 75 and 87, dave, not 75 to 87.
75-87. It’s a record, not a spread.
jeff nye –
You think Saunders projects to be a +4 to +4.5 WAR player? Seriously?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OF#value
Yes, because that’s exactly what I said.
Bringing Mike Cameron in to play LF would be like signing Adrian Beltre to play 1b. Most of his value is his defense in CF, not his offense.
Having said that, I think Saunders defense in LF would be every bit as good as Cameron’s. I think his offense would be the big question mark.
Where I disagree with Dave is in thinking you have to build to win in 2010. You shoot for improvement every year, and it’s unlikely that they can pay Felix 18-20m and build a team that fast while Silva and Johjima are still on the payroll. So your only hope is that Saunders, Tui, Ackley, Morrow and Moore mature fast enough to win before Ichiro starts his inevitible decline.
Players like Ichiro dont age the same as a typical player. (as long as he does not sustain a serious leg injury) I’ve read he’s talked about playing well into his 40′s and i believe he will be a +.300 hitter and beating out in field hits for years to come.
What players are out there who are like Ichiro? I think you have to project him the same way you do other players of his age until he proves you wrong.
It occurs to me that if that roster had a couple of different names on it:
LF Choo 3.0
2B Cabrera 2.5
and/or
LF Jones 2.5
RP Sherrill 1.0
We’d be in considerably better shape. Thanks again for all your hard work for the Mariners, Bill.
There honestly just isn’t a good way to add to the M’s win total through free-agency.
Even when picking through the scrap heap of a depressed economy, the M’s are probably still paying something like $2M per WAR at best.
For instance, Designated hitters should be cheap again this year.
Most American League teams are set at the position and there are probably a dozen players competing for maybe half a dozen starting gigs. However, even in these conditions a 2.5WAR player like Hideki Matsui is probably not going to sign for less then $5-6M and the risk of deminished returns ramps up for each dollar saved.
Apply this to the much more demanding positions the Mariners have holes at; Shortstop, Third base, Starting rotation… And that $25M doesn’t get you much unless you win a few free-agent lottery tickets.
I’d love for Zduriencik to pull off another blockbuster trade, and I hope he can do it, because the alternatives make the M’s an ~85 win team with a ~$100M payroll for yet another year.
Did I miss an earlier post about Branyan never coming back? Is it possible that he priced himself back into the picture w/ his lower-back issues?
No, this is simply an evaluation of where things start with the players who would be Mariners if the team does nothing at all. You’ll notice that even though Dave talks about Beltre and Wilson as an either/or, neither of them is actually included in this list.