Sorry, Jason, We Don’t Want You
Over the last few years, I’ve done an off-season series called “free agent land mines”, where I laid out players to avoid giving large contracts to who just weren’t going to be worth it. Because it was just that kind of organization, the M’s kept picking guys off the list and targeting them for acquisition, throwing big money at guys like Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva. Thank God those days are gone.
With a new regime in place that actually knows how to build a baseball team, I don’t really feel compelled to do a land mine post this year. This front office knows how to evaluate talent, and I have no fear that they’re going to go toss a bunch of money on a long term deal at an overrated aging veteran who has some mythical quality they think they need. A new day, a new way, and all that.
However, I did want to single out one guy whose name keeps popping up for a couple of reasons – the main one being that he’s local and still lives in the area. That he can hit is a nice bonus, since the M’s were last in the league in offense and all that, and for some people, the recipe of good hitter + from Seattle = guy we should be interested in. However, it’s a bad idea in a lot of ways. No matter how many people try to convince you otherwise, just say no to Jason Bay.
He’s 31 years old, right-handed, and not really much an outfielder anymore. He has classic old player skills. In fact, he’s eerily reminiscent to some other free agent the M’s blew a lot of money on.
Bay, 2009: .267/.384/.537, 15% BB%, 30% K%, .269 ISO, -13.9 UZR, +3.4 wins
Sexson, 2003: .272/.379/.548, 14% BB%, 25% K%, .276 ISO, -9.6 UZR, +3.9 wins
The numbers are from Sexson’s last healthy season before the M’s signed him – you’ll recall that he missed most of his contract year with a shoulder problem, but then went right back to being the player he was before the injury. Interestingly, Sexson was actually headed into his age 29 season when the M’s signed him, so Bay’s actually even further into his decline phase than Richie was. Richie made better contact than Bay does, if you can believe that. Their power levels were similar, and they both offset the low batting averages by drawing a bunch of walks.
In terms of skillsets, they’re basically the same player – quality (but aging) power hitters who don’t fit the park and play defense like a DH. These are the types of players that make the worst free agent signings. Power is overvalued in the market, while defense is undervalued, so sluggers almost always get paid more than they’re worth. Toss in the fact that this skillset doesn’t age well, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Even setting aside the presence of players like Michael Saunders (and, to a lesser extent, Dustin Ackley), the Mariners should have absolutely no interest in Jason Bay. He might be interested in playing closer to home, but that’s just too bad – I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole.
Some team is going to give him a hefty contract this winter. Thankfully, it’s not going to be the Mariners. After making a huge mistake on this player type five years ago, the M’s aren’t going to do that again.
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It’s ridiculous that anyone would even consider Bay an option. He’s not the Z’s kind of player and he’s a terrible fit for Safeco.
Reading your recent articles over the past couple of days has kind of depressed me, but at the same time they make very reasonable and realistic sense. I am not saddened or shocked because you are telling us that the Mariners should not go out and pay an aged veteran such as Bavasi would do, I am just upset because you make it sound as if we really do not have a chance at all next season. I understand this team will not be the best in the league next year, but I was hoping for Z to pick up a couple of above average players to help bolster this offense. I can’t go through another year watching this mediocre offense give our pitchers little to no run support. I do not feel as if Z can find 3 or 4 “hidden gems” such as a Gutierrez, a Branyan, or a Aardsma and get us to the playoffs. I believe that he needs to find a way to bring in some proven offensive players, that are not too old. It is a very hard thing to do, seeing as how Z and the entire Mariners organization are trying to be competitive right now as well as restoring the farm system in which Bavasi did his best to destroy. Basically…..I know that you already understand that the Mariners offense was awful and cannot continue to go on this way and have hopes of further success beyond what this year brought to us, but Z has to do something to give this team those guys who can get the men who are sitting on 2nd and 3rd base with no outs in. Saunders, Carp, Ackley, and Moore are going to be solid players, but they are the future and have not proven enough in my opinion to solidify a permanent amount of playing time next year. Carp is not the solution at first, Saunders is not the solution at left, Moore is not quite the solution at catcher yet, and obviously Ackley has not yet even played in the majors. I have many many more thoughts, but I don’t have the time to right them down. I love your site man
The Red Sox tried to sign him to an extension and they’re supposed to be a smart team. Whether it would have been a good or bad move would largely depend on money, years and his projected performance going forward.
I don’t think any single player this off season is worth throwing that much money at. Bay would take all our available payroll, and is not a +15 win player (per earlier post). Nor is any player that good.
The point is, the M’s aren’t 1 player away from being competitive, and therefore we shouldn’t be throwing $15-$20 mil at anyone. We need to continue improving via trade, and make small, impact-ful moves. May I suggest Chad Tracy? $3mil for a LH 3B, perhaps +2 wins.
We need to find undervalued players like that, not overrated players like Bay.
How is it ridiculous that anyone would want him? He’s clearly a productive (offensive) player. The important point is that he is absolutely wrong for this team – not wrong for baseball. Jeff Francoeur would be an example of a guy getting everyday playing time who is wrong for any team.
As for the M’s, Dave wouldn’t touch Bay with a 10-foot pole and my feeling is neither would Z.
Well, hopefully Boston does what Dan Schulman & Dave Campbell opined they would do, mid-game — which was do everything they could to keep him….
Bay will take up more time on ESPN than his value has earned, because he’s from Boston. He should take no time on Zduriencik’s board this winter. We need to rebuild our infield before we start looking at who’s going to replace the DH tandem. Or simply not “replace” it and move some of our outfield surplus and our catching core there from time to time. Note to the manager: there is no rule that the designated hitter must bat cleanup.
Bay will almost certainly be on my top ten list of irritating as *ahem* agendas from the vocal and moronic KJR950 Mariner faithful.
Also included?
-Griffey needs to come back and start, he has one more magical season left. (Don’t laugh, someone actually said this to me)
-Jarrod Washburn was traded just as he was turning into the #2 pitcher this team needed, and his departure is clearly what caused the Mariners to miss the playoffs.
-Thank God that bust Beltre isn’t sucking up all our payroll anymore.
-Ichiro STILL doesn’t hit for enough power to be a corner outfielder.
-Why sign a 3B when Chris Shelton put up such great numbers for Tacoma?
-We lost the Langerhans/Morse trade and are now kicking ourselves because he’d fit so perfectly at third.
I’m sure they’ll come up with a few to surprise me though, they always do.
There is no reason for the M’s to sign Bay to play DH, not this year, not any year.
Someone like a Carlos Delgado would probably put up better numbers for a third of his paycheck and commitment time.
Earlier today I was browsing the ESPN Mariners homepage and saw a story link, “Griffey to earn $3.15M for return to Mariners.”
My heart skipped a beat.
I live down here in California and the station for the SF Giants (KNBR) daily has people calling in desperate for Bay. The Giants are a team who, like the M’s have struggled to find offense for years, and it seems most people see Bay’s name because he’s on ESPN with his Sawks all the time, and think that somehow, someway he’d make a big difference.
Why Bay gets all the love he does from the media and fans is beyond me – he had a decent start but his second half was bad, and he’s only going to regress further and further. It’s satisfying to know that the new M’s management won’t be making moves like signing Bay any longer – far less stress to deal with in the offseason now.
If he came dirt cheap, I’d take him. Anything over $10m / year is overpaying.
The Front Office will make mistakes; they will just be different than what the last FO made.
Though we can sleep a little easier knowning that this FO will not step on this landmine.
Branyan .251/.347/.520, 12% BB%, 35% K%, .269 ISO, +1.6 UZR, +2.8 wins
Bay .267/.384/.537, 15% BB%, 30% K%, .269 ISO, -13.9 UZR, +3.4 wins
Sexson .272/.379/.548, 14% BB%, 25% K%, .276 ISO, -9.6 UZR, +3.9 wins
Other than a left handed bat and an unreliable UZR theres not much to consider with Branyan.
Well, Branyan will cost a fraction of what Sexson did cost and what Bay will likely cost. Other than that, they are fairly comparable.
This was helpful for me to hear/read. I’m not a total retard, but I was getting sucked into the whole – he’s from here, he his 35 or whatever bombs, blah, blah, blah. I’m glad you said talk to the hand. FASA (Free Agent Signings Anonymous) is now in session! I promise I will attend every meeting.
I trust the Zman, so giddee up you know!
With the Ms again not in the playoffs, I say go Dodgers! I’m glad I can root for Torre now – and all those great young guys they have too.
Remember when Bay was a Pirate and one of the best players in the league nobody’d heard of?
Being traded to Boston was the best thing that could have happened to the value of his upcoming contract.
May I suggest that Anaheim, Oakland and Texas are excellent places to overpay him.
He’s a far better fit for Boston. LF in Boston doesn’t really reward athleticism, they can more easily afford the opportunity cost of having him on the roster, and Fenway’s a lot friendlier to righties than Safeco is.
I don’t know where he could play that’s “closer to home” – Denver? San Francisco?
Saw the headline and cried a little bit, then read the article.
When I first read the headline, I thought we were talking about Jason Marquis….
I kinda figured Bay would not fit in here. But do we want Matt (Holliday)?
Oh, Jason, we always want you.
I can understand why we’d be mad if Zduriencik signed Bay. Seems like a bad idea. But what about Matt Holliday? He’ll likely command more money, but he’s clearly a more productive player…he’s coming off a .390 wOBA in a season in which he had maybe the worst April of his career. He’s also a decent defender, with a +5.3 UZR season this year and a career +6.2 UZR/150.
I only ask because while he’s a stud player coming off a 5.6 win season who seems more likely to maintain his production level, it seems like Safeco would be the worst park he could possibly go to. I guess–and definitely in a kind of roundabout way–I’m asking when is it ok, with our ballpark, to spend big dollars on a right-handed slugger, if he has other skills besides right-handed power?
Bretticus, for starters, when
a) we’re one player away,
b) we have the money free in the payroll to sign said player, and
c) we have a hole at said player’s position.
a) and b) do not currently apply, and in Holliday’s case, neither does c).
Jason Bay is a decent fit for Fenway Park, though. In The Safe, he’d be a defensive nightmare like no other and his offense would almost surely decline notably.
Bay might very well be the worst defensive LF ever. He can’t run (think about stuffing ‘Gar out there with two bad knees). He can’t throw (think of Johnny Damon’s arm, then make him as accurate as Rick Ankiel on the mound). His UZR in Fenway is awful, actually worse than Manny Ramirez. Read that again: His UZR in Fenway is awful, actually worse than Manny Ramirez.
An outfield of Itchy, Gutz and Bay would be a horrible tax on our CF – Bay’s defensive range is somewhat similar to that of Raul Ibanez, and he’s eight years younger (which means he’s not ever going to be a better defensive OF than Ibanez) than Raul and will cost about 50% more per season on any contract he signs.
If Jason Bay is a Mariner in 2010, then aliens have abducted the real Jack Zduriencik and have replaced him with a Bill Bavasi clone.
As for Matt Holliday… do we have a compulsion for signing RH-hitting players so we can ruin them? The Safe is a place where righties go to die. Sure, once in a while, someone like Vlad comes up and launches one into the upper deck in left field (or, like Tui, who missed the upper deck by about 3 feet or so), but it’s not a park conducive to helping right-handed bats.
Why is anyone even entertaining the idea of bringing in a high-dollar LF like Bay or Holliday to play half their games in Seattle when needs at 3B, DH and 1B are likely easier and cheaper to fill with competent, veteran personnel?
Is there a list out there somewhere of projected free agents at the end of this season, just for curiosity’s sake?
You want a power hitter in the offseason?
Bring Jim Thome here for a one-year contract and put him at DH since it’s likely Dustin Ackley will be here in 2011.
But signing a right-handed power hitter at Safeco Field to a lot of money and a lot of years may as well be the baseball equivalent of walking into a land-mine field since baseball’s contracts are ALL 100% guaranteed unlike the NFL (see: Richie Sexson).
It doesn’t matter if it’s Jason Bay, Matt Holliday or Richie Sexson.
Right-handed power guys, that is, the guys who aren’t Edgar Martinez and aren’t great HITTERS who happen to have power, always seem to see their OBP plummet and possibly see their strikeouts go through the roof when they play here.
Hence why, for instance, if you trade Lopez in the offseason, you need to get A LOT back in return.
Lopez could potentially hit 30-40 home runs in a season one day VERY, VERY soon (next 1-5 years) if he plays in the right ballpark.
That ballpark probably won’t be Safeco Field though.
Soonerman22,
That’s the one I found easiest.
Tom,
Thome is an interesting option. If we’re discussing LH-DH types, what about Carlos Delgado? Garret Anderson? Hideki Matsui?
All would surely provide better production than Junior as the primary DH.
Smile.
Power is overvalued in the market, while defense is undervalued
Sometimes even a blind squirrel can find a nut this way, though. You could say we paid Beltre for his power and ended up getting his defense. It would be nice to keep him, now that he’s back to being undervalued.
Mike Snow,
Perhaps that’s true, but Beltre’s defense was a quantifiable benefit when the M’s inked him and not a big shocker to defensive analysts.
The biggest lesson learned from the Beltre, Vidro and Sexson contracts must be that RH hitters consistently falter in The Safe.
Just because a RH power hitter is hurt by Safeco doesn’t mean the team should never pursue one. It just means you want to get a guy that you expect to age well (athletic) and has enough power to clear the wall with ease (more than Jose Lopez) or has power to all fields.
Or to put it another way, I don’t think Safeco would hurt the batting skills of Pujols, Manny, Cabrera, Hanley, Braun, etc. that much. The elite tier of RH power hitters should be able to thrive anywhere. The middle tier of RH power hitters like Beltre are hurt a lot more.
The M’s only play 1/2 their games as Safeco. Building a team to thrive only at Safeco isn’t smart. Looking for undervalued players that are helped by Safeco (like flyball lefties) is smart.
The other guy whose name keeps popping up is that Irish 3rd baseman with ridiculous first name. Plays for the Angels at the moment. Would love to see a rational analysis of him (like this guy did)– what he’s worth, what he will actually get paid, and why that’s almost certainly too much for the M’s even if they want to contend in ’10.
Again, I would disagree.
The lesson to learn from Vidro is that Vidro sucked.
The lesson to learn from Beltre is that defense was really undervalued in 2004/2005, that 1st impression are lasting, and that RH pull hitters that don’t have elite power are really hurt by Safeco.
The lesson to learn from Sexson is that taking on guys with his skill set and athletic ability at that age is risky. However, his power skills survived Safeco just fine. In 2005, he hit .254/.365/.541 at Safeco. In 2006 he hit .257/.322/.493. Decline was rearing its ugly head, but these numbers weren’t too different from his road numbers and the main difference between his home & road numbers in 2006 was BABIP fluctuation. In 2007 he got old, and in 2008 he stayed old. But even in 2007, his home/road splits weren’t that drastic. RH hitters who can hit the ball a mile and can hit the ball to right-center can survive in Safeco just fine.
RH hitters who can hit the ball a mile and can hit the ball to right-center can survive in Safeco just fine.
Good point. Also, some good points otherwise, especially the one on Sexson’s HOME-ROAD splits (I guess I should have looked closer at those).
If you look at the age(s) of Vidro and Sexson, however, they both collapsed at ~32. Beltre will be 31 in 2010 and just suffered his least productive hitting season in ten full MLB seasons and struggled through multiple injury problems.
Considering how few hitters really excel beyond 31 or 32 years of age, and how poorly those hitters have done for the Mariners, is it really wise to offer AB a contract term longer than two or three years? Sure, defense declines at a much slower rate than batting (or so it seems), and the primary focus for attempting to sign AB again is his defensive prowess, but, with all of that being taken into consideration, is it really reasonable to expect the 2006-2008 version of Beltre (25 HR, ~.800 OPS) at the dish in 2010 and beyond?
I just don’t see it.
I agree, though Safeco isn’t the only park that is kind to lefties and rough on righties; if the road to the WS goes through the Bronx, for example, having a team that can hit balls over a “short right field porch” is certainly an asset.
RH pull hitters (like Beltre and Lopez) falter in the Safe; guys who have fallen off the aging/skills cliff (like Vidro and Sexson) falter anywhere.
Safeco certainly depresses the power numbers for players who only hit it out to deep left, but it doesn’t defeat righties who have a more flexible batting profile. Everybody already seems to be forgetting (for example) that Edgar was a RH power hitter.
joser,
There are always “exceptions to the rule”, and Papi was one of those exceptions, no question. He could hit the ball anywhere, in any stadium. He was perhaps the best overall RH hitter of his time (’92 to ’01).
How many RH hitters currently in the majors have matched or exceeded what ‘Gar did with the bat for that ten-year stretch? Three? Four?
Finding another Edgar Martinez would certainly prove to be immeasurably more difficult than watching a guy like Jason Bay butcher his position in Safeco and decline with the bat due to the nature of Safeco’s constructs.
Regardless of the debates surrounding Sexson and Vidro as utter failures for roughly half their time in M’s unforms, the consensus opinion seems to be that chasing after Jason Bay and/or Matt Holliday would prove to be an unwise course of action.
Most seem to be in agreement on that matter.
However, considering his age in 2010 (31) and his ouchies from 2009, is retaining Adrian Beltre for a deal more than three years a wise choice? He’ll almost certainly get a longer/more valuable contract offer from someone else, so is getting into a bidding war against fatter wallets for a guy with 10+ years of hard miles on him really an astute decision?
I didn’t mean for this discussion to get so sidetracked, but nobody’s suggesting another long-term contract for Beltre. If anything, everyone seems to think he’ll take a one-year deal this offseason, whoever he signs with, to rebuild his value for a more favorable market.
Mike,
I don’t think anyone sidetracked the convo – it’s part of the natural course of a conversation.
=oP
If he were to sign a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild his value for a future contract, then there cannot be any reasonable thought that he would sign that one-year deal with Seattle – he’d almost surely want to go to a team where he can play half his games in a far more hitter-friendly park than The Safe. And, maybe it doesn’t even have to be hitter-friendly; maybe he’ll just want to play the majority of his games in a stadium that doesn’t routinely punish RH pull hitters?
Considering what’s in the cupboard as far as potential 3B prospects, losing AB will hurt a lot for a long time unless a FA is brought into the mix… and, maybe that’s the direction GMZ is looking for the time being.
The question then becomes whether or not a guy like Tuiasosopo or Hannahan can adequately man the position for a couple of years along with the hopeful development of others such as Adam Moore, Michael Saunders, Carlos Truinfel, et al.
If GMZ is going to let Beltre walk away but still try to build a 90+ win team for 2010, then other positions (DH, LF, SS) must be significantly improved to make up for Beltre’s departure, and hoping for Josh/Jack Wilson, Saunders and a yet-to-be-determined DH to have offensive and defensive seasons good enough to make up for that loss is probably not a fair expectation.
So, let’s assume AB is on someone else’s roster for 2010… the FA class for this offseason is pretty thin for long-term solutions at 3B. Anorexic, actually. Does the club insert Tui and/or Hannahan into the 3B slot and hope for the best? No one else really inspires me as far as left-side infielders already under franchise control. Is Bill Hall the hopeful solution?
*Gah*… I’m getting WWWAAAYYY ahead of myself here… sorry…
A healthy Adrian Beltre can hit 25 HRs with lots of doubles playing in Safeco, which would be enough to re-establish his value. It’s not like nobody in baseball is aware of park effects. But ultimately it’s his choice, and we really have very little idea of what his priorities and preferences are. If it was raw numbers, then probably Fenway or Coors, but I don’t see that with Beltre (guys like Jose Lopez seem more invested in their counting stats), and it wouldn’t explain why he signed here in the first place. If he will ultimately choose the biggest payday (because Boras is his agent or whatever), then we just have to wait and see who makes the biggest offer, although I note that neither New York team needs a third baseman. And if he leaves, then yes, we’re probably looking at solutions that are already on the roster.
Yes.
Even with his injuries (none of which will likely have long term ramifications), Beltre managed to be close to a 3WAR player last season.
Even if he gets a “good” contract (~3yrs/35M) he’d still be an undervalued asset because of his phenomenal glove work.
The problem is that a team like the Red Sox or the Twins are probably much more appealing to Adrian, and both of those teams are intelligent enough to recognize how valuable a player he is.
Seattle may never get a chance to re-sign him.
I can see the Royals getting Bay with a crazy contract.
Personally, if I was Beltre (or his agent) I would be calling the Astros. They want to compete every year, 3rd is wide open for them, they have a good home park, and the NL central isn’t exactly full of pitching powerhouses. Plus they have enough other solid guys in their lineup (Bourn, Berkman, Lee, Pence) that he could put up good R and RBI numbers to impress other teams.
Dave, I’m kind of sad you aren’t doing your FA analysis. Any chance you (or someone else) will do one over at fangraphs if you aren’t going to do one here? I assume you will still do your 2010 offseason plan (or whatever you call it) that would incorporate your free agent ideas?
Branyan .251/.347/.520, 12% BB%, 35% K%, .269 ISO, +1.6 UZR, +2.8 wins
Bay .267/.384/.537, 15% BB%, 30% K%, .269 ISO, -13.9 UZR, +3.4 wins
Sexson .272/.379/.548, 14% BB%, 25% K%, .276 ISO, -9.6 UZR, +3.9 wins
Other than a left handed bat and an unreliable UZR theres not much to consider with Branyan.
Only one of these guys is being paid less than 2 million.
Yeah, MinuteMaid would be a great fit for him; most of the others that are better (Coors, US Cellular, Tropicana) already have incumbent 3Bs who aren’t going anywhere. Of course almost anywhere else is better than Safeco, and the Angels may have an opening…
Another team for whom 3B is wide open (Glaus will not be back), plays in the NL Central, and has a park friendly to (built for?) a RH hitter who pulls for power? The St. Louis Cardinals. They have preserved payroll flexibility for this off-season, enough to re-sign Holliday and make a run at a mid-price free agent. As much as I hate to say it and will hate to see it, AB will look smashing in a Cards uni.
Well, even though I actually enjoyed the low-scoring season, I don’t believe ‘proven’ players are the answer.
First, as Dave explained earlier this week, there simply isn’t enough money available to pay market value for the pure offensive production we’d need to logically compete. But we also don’t need to get desperate.
I think most people would agree that wOBA below .300 is woeful. But neither our left fielders nor shortstops nor catchers nor third basemen combined to reach that number this year. That is nearly unimaginable.
So, even if the regulars next year in those positions are Saunders and Jack Wilson and Moore and Tui respectively, I think there’s a good chance each of those positions reaches and surpasses wOBA of .300. And let’s say one or two make it up to .330 or better. That is a significant offensive improvement without buying anyone. What’s important is that we don’t lose significant defense in the process. Yes, losing Beltre would be a considerable step in the wrong direction. But I would enjoy not seeing Hall in left, Yuni at shortstop and Johnson behind the plate. And I think the pitching staff would, as well.
Can we expect the same production from Branyan (or his replacement?) Maybe not. But whatever the decline is there should be countered by improving at DH. And that doesn’t have to be an expensive acquisition.
Jack should continue to emphasize defense and pitching. Don’t force an offensive ‘upgrade’, because one should occur naturally.
Matsui = Doesn’t have a good rapport with Ichiro
Anderson = On the decline of his career and had an OBP twenty points lower than Junior’s last year.
Delgado = Eeeeeh, maybe. You just don’t know if he’s done after a year where he’s plagued by injuries at 37 years old or not.
Thome is your best option of the four BY FAR. Unless he feels he only has one year left and wants to spend it in Cleveland or some team that’s a little closer to the World Series than we are right now.
Even though we could definitely play the “what-if” game all day long wondering how many more wins against Anaheim and Texas could we have gotten this year if we had Ibanez in our lineup as DH and another big bopper after that and what kind of difference it could have made. . .
But anyways, I digress.
If you want a DH for ONE YEAR. Get Thome (not Griffey) as your main guy.
Last year = 2009
Fair enough, but I guess I was looking for a suggestion of someone else? I dunno.
If the M’s direction is to get Carp and/or LaHair playing time at 1B in the hopes that one of them steps up and shows something better than replacement value, then the best available FA option for DH might be Branyan. It’s pretty clear that playing in the field took a toll on his body (not that corkscrew swing, of course, ha ha), and while there’s no guarantee he could stay healthy as a full-time DH, it’s not like Seattle’s coming off a season where they had one guy at DH all year long – Junior and Sweeney both had injury issues to fight through in ’09.
If we look at a lineup…
C – Johjima
1B – Carp? LaHair?
2B – Lopez
3B – Hall
SS – Tui? Josh Wilson?
LF – Saunders?
CF – Guti
RF – Itchy
DH – Junior? Branyan?
That’s not much offense, regardless of the question marks. Actually, it might actually produce less offense than the ’09 version with Hall replacing Beltre and unprovens/rookies at 1B, LF and SS, a rookie backup C (Moore), and Langerhans and Hannahan coming off the bench.
::: groan :::
Add in that Itchy can’t really do much better than he did in ’09, Lopez exceeded just about everyone’s expectations in ’09 and Branyan was a shocker (31 bombs? Who honestly thought he could eclipse 30?) in ’09… it doesn’t really get any prettier with the in-house talent that seems to routinely show they’re not ready.
Is the only hope for 90+ wins in 2010 based upon the premise that two or more of Tui, Saunders, Moore and Carp will break out and be productive as an everyday player? Does anyone see Josh Wilson or Hannahan being anything better than Willie Hustle? Will the 2006 Bill Hall please come to the podium?
Good grief… am I just depressing myself here?
Yes. But it’s not impossible.
And I repeat that offensively they can’t be worse than the people they replace. (Obviously Tui is not going to be Beltre defensively).
Will the 2006 Bill Hall please come to the podium?
The 2006 Bill Hall has gone to the same place as the 2004 Adrian Beltre.
The Mariners need offense and that is the end of the story.
Well, all things considered, if we look at the potential lineup(s), the need for Hall and Johjima to return to their collective 2006 form is paramount.
DH: A huge upgrade at DH will be crucial. We all love Griffey, but winning baseball games is a business primarily predicated on scoring as many runs as possible. His anemic production at DH in ’09 (.735 OPS, -0.37 WPA) must be improved upon dramatically. Branyan fits that mold (.867 OPS, 0.91 WPA), and let’s be honest – he’s not a very good defender and his back issues make me nervous enough that I wouldn’t want him playing in the field more than 1-2 times per week. If Branyan can go .250/.320/.480 in 140+ games, I think most of us would be happy enough with that.
1B: Whoever takes primary control at 1B has to be good enough to not miss Branyan’s production at the position and cannot completely offset the improvement hoped for by upgrading the DH slot. Mike Carp is a better defensive option at first than anyone else in-house, and he’s a patient left-handed hitter with a relatively level, line-drive swing. Carp, however, would have to have a very significant breakout season in ’10 to not diminish the benefit from adding Branyan at DH – a .260/.330/.420 line would probably be good enough, but he’d have to hit plenty of doubles to get to a .420 SLG considering he’s not really a home run hitter.
3B: Adrian Beltre’s defense cannot be replaced. That’s not to say, though, that his offense cannot be replaced. Bill Hall isn’t a horrible defensive downgrade, but his bat is questionable at best. If Beltre is a +3 WAR player with a .683 OPS and a .114 ISO in 112 games, then he was literally a no-bat/all-glove asset in ’09. By adding Hall (and therefore reducing the defensive capabilities at 3B) and getting the same offensive production as Beltre provided, would it be safe to assume Hall would be at least a +1.5-2.0 WAR guy in 2010 in a full season? Hall would have to go .265/.310/.390 to be just slightly better than AB in ’09.
SS: I see no reason to pick up Jack Wilson’s $8.4 million option for 2010. I also see no reason he would want to cut his pay drastically to play for a middle-of-the-pack Mariners club. IMHO, he’s out of the picture, which leaves us with only Josh Wilson. Or, does it? Here’s an idea – with as athletic as he looked at times in the field, perhaps Matt Tuiasosopo could be a potential fill-in at SS while we all wait for Carlos Truinfel to turn a corner and advance through the farm system. I know, I know. Tui’s not a shortstop. It’s probably the second-most physically demanding position on the field after catcher. He doesn’t have very good footwork. His hands are slow. He does, however, have a little bit more future and immediate upside than Josh Wilson. Seattle got literally squat out of their shortstops in ’09, so it’s not like Tui would have to be some offensive juggernaut and have a monster year at the plate like Rodriguez in his first full year (’96). He’d have to improve significantly from what he has shown in two short stints with the big club (let’s be fair, though – he’s only got 72 career PA), however. Would a .240/.300/.380 line from him be reasonable? Could we really expect much better than that from either of the Wilsons? Sure, a .680 OPS isn’t good, but it beats paying several millions for similar production from Jack Wilson.
LF: Michael Saunders showed flashes of brilliance. He has a smooth, compact, level swing. He can hit for a little bit of power, but he reminds me more of John Olerud or Will Clark (early-years Will Clark, at least) than of a legitimate power threat. He seemed to play a pretty good defensive LF, too. He’s hit for some pop and a decent OBP at every level of professional ball thus far, and he’s got enough speed to steal a dozen or more bags. Other options for LF are limited, with Prentice Redman appearing to be one of those *AAAA* guys and Jerry Owens possessing absolutely no power to speak of (3 HR and just 22 total XBH in 390 AAA at-bats in ’09).
If those are the positions that lacked the plate productivity that’s easiest to replace/upgrade, then we’re not looking at anything special for 2010 on the offensive side of things. Again, Itchy and Lopez would have to duplicate or improve upon their ’09 work in ’10, Johjima would need to return to ’06-’07 form at the plate (or, Moore would have to have a ROY-type campaign), and Gutierrez would need to build off his solid first season with the Mariners and at least repeat his .736 OPS and .147 ISO.
All of this is, of course, also contingent on the team as a whole not taking a big step backward either defensively or on the mound.
mac1973
I think your positions are well reasoned, but I have to disagree with you on shortstop. No, Jack Wilson is never going to be an offensive force, but when healthy there’s a good case to be made that he’s one of the top half dozen defensive shortstops in the game. It’s hard to visualize how many balls Yuni watched roll by that Wilson would have gloved.
And his fielding becomes more valuable when you think about the left side of the infield without Beltre.
Tui can never be a shortstop. He just hasn’t got the skill set. Just like I don’t believe he can ever be an effective second baseman. And I’m afraid waiting for Triunfel to play short is like waiting for Godot–he’s never going to play there either.
Just remember, 2011 is looking more and more like the coming out party.
I really enjoyed the days when Jason Bay played for the Portland Beavers. He was a Northwest guy with good character, he gave back to the community and he carried himself like a big league ballplayer even in the minors.
In other words, if you leave out the numbers and the salary, he is a great fit. Dave, I cannot thank you enough Dave for loudly yelling “pit trap” before any serious Mariners fans got attached to the idea of Bay in LF.
With 2009 still fresh in my memory, I have unwavering faith in the skills of Jack Zduriencik. I just can’t imagine him making a bonehead move like signing Jason Bay.
I definitely enjoyed the days when Jason Bay played for the Portland Beavers. He was a Northwest guy with good character, he gave back to the community and he carried himself like a big league ballplayer even in the minors.
In other words, if you leave out the numbers and the salary, he is a really great fit for Seattle. Dave, I cannot thank you enough for loudly yelling “land mine” before any serious Mariners fans got attached to the idea of Bay.
With 2009 fresh in my memory, I still have unwavering faith in the skills of Jack Zduriencik. I want to believe that his staff crunches the numbers with the same zeal as this great website and draws similar conclusions.
While I would not want to sign Bay, reading all of this makes me wonder how much different Jack Z’s life would be without Silva and Johjima’s contracts on the books.
Without those contracts, the Mariners would be able to compete very effectively in 2010. The impact of Bavasi lingers on.
diderot,
Good point about Jack Wilson’s defense – even if he hits poorly (for instance, a .235/.305/.380 line), he’s still such a well-rounded and effective defensive presence that any benefit from inserting someone else’s bat would be entirely offset by the defensive downgrade.
My point about either using Josh Wilson or Matt Tuiasosopo as a gap-filler at SS is that they’re MLB-minimum salary guys. For argument’s sake, let’s say Jack agrees to an extension that pays him ~$10 million over two seasons – where else could that money be used at a more pressing position for improvement? Or, is shortstop the most pressing need at the moment? Is it worth it to sign him through 2011 for that much money when he could hit for a full season like he did in 100 PAs as a Mariner in ’09?
I don’t expect another anemic .224/.263/.299 effort from Jack in ’10 & ’11, but his career line is .268/.310./.374 with a .106 ISO. Not exactly a heart-stopping effort. Would a .255/.300/.360 season be acceptable, considering the benefit of his defensive value? Would that really be worth ~$5 million per season?
Obviously, looking at just BA/OBP/SLG is a narrow view if things, but they’re all impactful rate stats that affect the whole of offensive productivity, and I’m very curious as to how other M’s fans and baseball analysts view his overall value to a team with his career offensive and defensive averages most likely unrepeatable due to age, wear-and-tear, being in a different league, etc.
I’m not so sure about this. First of all, I’m not sure we can blame the Kenji contract on Bavasi.
But more to the point, if we had that added money in the payroll, who would we spend it on? I suppose we could overpay for people like Webb or Crawford, but there’s no one much better available to catch.
And the kind of guys we should be thinking about, like Nick Johnson, may be available in our price range anyway.
josh wilson is not an everyday MLB player, thats the bottom line.
Felix.
Yes, absolutely.
But by definition that doesn’t improve the team.
Have a look at Wilson’s value — he earned his $7.25M last year. He’s averaged 2 WAR per year over the past 3 years, and teams are spending about $4M per win. So while it’s possible a guy as creative as Zduriencik will find even more wins for those dollars elsewhere, it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.
No, Tui is not a shortstop. So why ask him to be one? Sure, he comes a lot cheaper. But he last played SS with Inland Empire three years ago. Do you really think he can go back to playing SS at the major league level and not have his fielding deduct whatever his bat contributes? Do you really want to ask that of him? And do you really think he can deliver? Remember: Jack Wilson is a 2 WAR player. Can Tui deliver 2 WAR of offense while also playing league average defense at a position he was moved off of three years ago?
While re-learning to play the most demanding (non-catching) position on the field? For reference, that’s about the line for Cristian Guzman (.284 / .306 / .390) who was about -1 WAR offensively. So even assuming Tui can be a league average shortstop defensively, you’re taking 1 Win away from the team vs playing Jack Wilson. So now you’re asking Zduriencik to get even more wins from those millions you saved from Wilson’s contract. And, in practice, Tui might not even be a replacement level shortstop, which is a -2 win player, so now you’re talking about putting the team into an even deeper hole.
Ah, sorry about the blown blockquote… sigh.
Thanks, joser.
I know – I was looking at things from an offense-only standpoint, but I wasn’t being trying to be intentionally ignorant of the value of defense… which is why I was trying to pose the question of what Wilson could bring to the table offensively and whether or not that would all but completely offset his high defensive value. New league, less-than-effective lineup around him, age, injuries, etc… they all add up.
I’m just looking at in-house possibilities for improving one of the AL’s least-effective offenses, and I’m wondering how much defensive value GMZ might be willing to sacrifice for “X” runs created on offense.
I know Tui isn’t a shortstop, but I do expect the M’s to explore just about every possibility they can imagine this offseason as far as getting more runs on the board. I was just kind of throwing that out there as a “what if?”, so please don’t think I’m a complete goober and wholly unaware of how a lot of things work.
=oP
Jack Z loves Jack Wilson. He didn’t make the trade so Wilson could play for him for a couple of months. He’ll be back at least next year.
While it’s certainly possible that Jack Wilson will be back, I think he’s more of a fall-back starting option then candidate numero uno.
That said, if the Mariners were able to acquire a more qualified candidate (J.J. Hardy I’m looking at you and your potential 4WAR here.) that still wouldn’t prevent them from buying out Wilson and offering him an Adam Everett style contract and playing him as the back-up infielder.
While it’s certainly possible that Jack Wilson will be back, I think he’s more of a fall-back starting option then candidate numero uno.
That said, if the Mariners were able to acquire a more qualified candidate (J.J. Hardy I’m looking at you and your potential 4WAR here.) that still wouldn’t prevent them from buying out Wilson and offering him an Adam Everett style contract and playing him as the back-up infielder.
I like that idea Adam. But, lets just speculate for a minute that J.J. Hardy could be had for a decent price or low price, something reasonable. Why not use him and Wilson in the infield. Shift Lopez to first and use Tui at third. The range of either at shortstop should make it a little easier on Tui at third, and Lopez at first if he could put up average numbers.
I’m just kind of putting thoughts together and what if’s, but wouldn’t that give the M’s a nice up the middle defense. You’d than be able to move Branyan to a full DH role which could possibly, and quite hopefully take some of the strain off of him physically. And the offensive production I think would be significantly better.
This all hangs on the what if being that J.J. Hardy can be a 4 WAR player again. And if Branyan and Lopez can meet, or surpass last years production. Which, if they do, than Wilson putting up a .240/.300/.380 line wouldn’t be horrible considering the plus offense and help in defense? Again, I am still new to all the numbers and and formula’s and am still a rookie. But I am trying to comprehend. And that’s all being based on that the Brewers are willing to put all their eggs in one basket with Escobar. Because in my opinion wouldn’t it be the longer they hold Hardy, the more his value goes down if they have no intention of starting him as a regular? Opinions?
Ive been thinking about the Bay option since it started rumoring late in the season. He’s local (somewhat), he went to school here (somewhat…in the state at least!), and blah blah blah.
Then I read this blog about how Bay dosnt belong on the M’s roster. This got me thinking….WHY NOT?
Ya, you guys can make the argument that right handers dont do well at the Safe…but isnt Jose a righty…Edgar a righty…ARod a righty…not to mention the righties that come to visit and tear us apart like Vlady and Cabrera
Are we hoping for 9 lefties in the lineup next season? The truth is good players will succeed anywhwere under any circumstance. And I believe Bay to be a good player.
That said, I agree Bay will be way overpriced and DO NOT WANT the M’s to throw the red carpet down for him, there are too many other options at LF. But if he came at the right price, why not ponder it? Just dont mark him for death because hes a righty…the majority of the world is, and the majority of baseball is as well!
The truth is good players will succeed anywhwere under any circumstance.
This is so far from the truth to be laughable. Do you think a flyball pitcher would do well in Coors Field?
You have to account for the park, or you’ll make stupid decisions. To write off the effects of Safeco on RHBs is beyond dumb.
I guess what I should have wrote was GOOD HITTERS, maybe that would have helped. I Didnt mention anything about pitching at Coors Vs. Safeco
Ok his #’s would drop a little I agree. He wouldnt fall off the map though! Thats ridiculus!! He’s had a good career so far, thats somthing you cant fake or hide, its not like he just had 1 good season in Boston! He would still contribute and produce as a Mariner… as a Padre, on any team with a pitchers park.
Im not discounting anything, to say you dont want Bay is absurd. Any team would love to have him in the lineup……its his cost that will keep him in NY (either Queens or the Bronx) or Boston most likely. Not his being right handed!
I understand the point you’re trying to make, I get it. Ya a lefty power bat is what we need, I get it…Dont get caught up in the “Bay is from Seattle” trip…I GET IT!
djtizzo,
The trouble with Jason Bay isn’t his bat. It’s widely recognized that he can hit well. He’s capable of pushing the ball, also, so Safe’s effects on RHB’s would be slightly reduced.
Regardless of his offensive capabilities, however, his defense would negate most of the benefit his offense would create. Fercrissakes, he was a -20 (+/1) run LF for the Sox while playing half his games in Fenway. If that doesn’t scare away a guy that values defense as highly as GMZ values defense, then I don’t know what will.
Ya thats horrible, not worth it at all! I do agree that Bay is not a fit here at all with what we’re trying to do, totally. Just wanted to shake things up a bit and consider every possible advantage and disadvantage. I mean, I like Saunders as much as the next M’s fan, but Im not delusional! Bay is a better hitter than him any day!
At least for now….
Whoops, sorry for the bquote error.
I like the idea of JJ playing in the middle for us, but we had a chance to get him at the deadline and didnt….makes you wonder why! Morrows value as a player with A+ potential is too much for Hardy I think. If they are gonna make a move like that why not ask for Escobar?
Exactly! It is very curious that the front office wouldn’t trade valuable assets, during a season in which they weren’t going to contend, for a player that wasn’t going to get them there anyway. Fire them all dammit!
Dave (or someone else at USSM), please link to this entry again so maybe Z (or one of the other local papers) will pick it up.
Thanks