The Upside And Risk Guys
So, I’ve laid out my case for why I think the M’s need to pursue a different kind of undervalued player this winter if they want to contend in 2010. They need to be on the right side of a few coin flips, but what coins should they be choosing? Here’s some guys they should kick the tires on.
Rich Harden, SP
His health problems are well known. In the six full seasons he’s spent in the majors, he’s thrown 675 innings, or about 112 per season. He’s thrown more than 150 innings once, and that came in 2004. After numerous arm problems, he got rid of his split-finger, which was a dominant pitch for him early in his career. His command is lousy, and it takes him so many pitches to get outs that he rarely can pitch past the sixth inning. And, to top it off, he just posted the worst results of his career.
That laundry list of drawbacks is why he’s not going to demand a long term, big money deal, despite still being one of the better pitchers in baseball. A significant part of his problem in 2009 was a 15.1% HR/FB rate that isn’t going to continue. And, despite his arm problems, he’s made 51 starts over the last two seasons. He may not be a workhorse, but he’s also not currently broken. So, a few of things that will discount his cost in the market aren’t as big a deal as they may seem. And the upside is certainly there.
Harden has averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings over the last two years. Part of that was moving to the National League, but still, he was striking out hitters at a rate that Tim Lincecum would be jealous of. Even without the splitter (replaced by a change-up that has similar movement), he’s still capable of dominating opposing hitters on any given night. Over the last two years, he’s been worth a total +6.2 wins, even with his DL stints and control problems. A +4 or +5 win season is well within his range of possible outcomes. So is a +0 season, of course, but that downside risk is why the M’s will have a shot at a guy who has Cy Young stuff.
On top of all that, he’s a local kid from B.C., so the geography factor that comes into play with some free agents would be a reduced issue, if it not an outright benefit. There are more than enough positives to offset the obvious negatives. He’s certainly a risk, but he’s one that comes with significant upside.
Ben Sheets, SP
What I said above, only replace the local factor with a drafted-by-Zduriencik factor, so the management team is extremely familiar with Sheets’ health problems and will theoretically have better knowledge of the situation than any team besides Milwaukee. Okay, so Sheets and Harden aren’t exactly the same, as he sacrifices some strikeouts to pound the strikezone more and hasn’t pitched since 2008, but it’s the same basic story. Sheets should come a bit cheaper because of the questions about his present health, but he’s also less likely to be interested in the Mariners than Harden is.
Carl Pavano, SP
What I said above, only replace the incentives to sign here with a reduced value due to the market’s over-valuation of ERA. Pavano had a very good season, running a 4.00 FIP over 200 innings for the Indians and Twins, but a .335 batting average on balls in play pushed his ERA over 5.00. Combined with his long injury history, and Pavano simply isn’t going to be able to cash in this winter despite coming off a very impressive season. He’s a lower upside guy than either Harden or Sheets, but he’ll probably cost less than both and will project to throw more innings than either. He’s not an ace, but he’s a mid-rotation starter who won’t get paid like one.
Randy Johnson, SP
The old version of the first two guys above, with basically the same strengths and weaknesses, just everything reduced by a couple of degrees. Johnson’s at the very end of his career, but even without his legendary fastball, he’s still got the nasty slider and the ability to put hitters away. As an LHP, he’d benefit more from Safeco than either of the two younger guys. Oh, and he’s Randy Johnson, the best pitcher in the history of the franchise. If he’s going to give his career a final farewell, there’s no better spot to do it than Seattle.
Erik Bedard, SP
The left-handed version of Sheets, just with a pushed back time-frame of recovery. He probably won’t be ready to pitch effectively in the majors until around the all-star break, so he’s going to have to take some kind of incentive based one year deal that pays him based on how many innings he throws. Whether he wants to remain in Seattle is anyone’s guess, really. I’d bet on no, but it’s at least worth kicking the tires to find out. The reward is reduced due to the fact that he’ll probably only be potentially available for half the season, so he falls behind the rest of the group in terms of interest. But if the rest of the pitchers fall through, he’s worth exploring.
Nick Johnson, 1B
The hitting version of Rich Harden. At this point, explaining the risk and reward seems a bit redundant. Johnson’s really good when he’s healthy, but there’s always the chance that he’ll spend the whole year on the DL. A left-handed on base machine who could split time at 1B and DH is a great fit for what the M’s need, though. He’s very similar to a late career Edgar Martinez, just with the benefit of hitting from the side of the plate that Safeco favors.
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Rumors of Delgado’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. After a terrible beginning to the 2008 season, he spent the next year playing at a +4 win level. At 38, he’s more of a DH than a 1B, but he can still fill in on the field when necessary. As you’ve surely noticed, the idea I’m pitching is to go after talent that comes with reduced price tags due to injury concerns, so naturally, Delgado’s coming off a season where he spent the last five months on the DL. Hip issues aren’t the end of of the world, though – both Chase Utley and Alex Rodriguez had surgeries on their hips last winter and are doing just fine. Delgado is basically Russ Branyan with a few less strikeouts – the M’s could certainly use him in the line-up, and given his age and injuries, he won’t command more than a one year deal.
Of those six guys, I’d like to see the M’s sign two. My plan suggested Johnson and Sheets, but Harden and Delgado would work just fine as well. You probably can’t get both Harden and Johnson, as they’ll be the two most expensive players from the injury prone guys to sign, but some combination of one of the pitchers and either of the 1B/DH types should be worth exploring.
It’s a risky strategy, no doubt. Sinking $15 to $20 million of the payroll into two players with legitimate health concerns has a real chance of not paying off. However, it’s the M’s best path to contention in 2010. By doing a good job of picking up decent, cheap talent over the last year, the M’s have mitigated some of the risk that comes along with relying on injury prone players. They’ve already invested in raising the floor by picking up guys like Hannahan, Langerhans, Vargas, and Carp. Those guys represent something of a stoploss for the organization, and with a reduced cost in a worst case scenario, the value of guys like Harden and Johnson is higher for the M’s than it would be for some other organizations.
In some ways, this is the perfect free agent class for the Mariners. With the significant depth of talented-but-fragile players on the market, this winter is the baseball version of Ebay, where judicious buyers can accept some increased risk for a dramatic reduction from full retail cost. Those are exactly the kinds of players the M’s need to be pursuing given their roster, and that player type is the most commonly found this winter. There’s going to be a pretty decent supply of what the M’s should be demanding, and that will drive prices down and allow the M’s to value shop at a higher tier of player.
For teams that want to add certainty this winter, adding a couple of extra wins to help put themselves over the top, this free agent class is a massive disappointment. For a team like the M’s, however, this free agent class is perfect. We couldn’t have asked for a better year to go shopping. For once, it actually will make sense to throw some money around in free agency.
Great post, Dave! The great thing is, this FO might actually sign those guys, and to good deals at that.
It just makes me want this snorefest of a series to be over so the real postseason can start. But then, we probably won’t see a lot of free agent action for us until at least the winter meetings or after, like you’ve said… but still, I can’t wait!
It sure would be awesome if the M’s could sign a combination of any 2 of those guys to incentive laden contracts. Jim Thome might be another named that is thrown around with Delgado and Johnson. However, he represents less of a risk than those 2 guys but, as a result, will also probably demand more money.
Nice Post,
I like the possibility of either Harden or Sheets. Harden because sign ability and Sheets because of Zduriencik’s knowledge of the player.
I wouldn’t want to dedicate 2/5 of the rotation to injury risk guys, but a Johnson return would ease the pain if Griffey calls it quits.
I prefer Sheets and Delgado if just 2 signings are made. I think they have the best chances for high impact signings. I would suggest 15M total base pay with up to 20M in incentives for both players combined.
Again Nice Post,
I highly doubt that Thome will command more than either Johnson or Delgado given his inability to play in the field. The man is strictly a DH or pinch hitter.
I forgot to mention another name that might fall in this category…Brad Penny
I think Troy Glaus might qualify for this one as well. He might not be the ideal fit for the M’s , but as a buy low high risk/reward guy, he’d be near the top of my list.
you would think so but considering hes made 13, 14, and 14 million dollars a year the past 3 years a paycut might go as low as 8 or 9 million a year??
I’ve talked about why I don’t think the M’s can afford to have a DH who can’t play the field, given the likely return of Branyan as the first baseman and his back problems. So Thome’s probably not a viable option.
Penny wants to stay in the NL.
Glaus is right-handed. The M’s can’t really afford to use the DH spot for a right-handed hitter, given the construction of the roster.
Agreed. However, I would imagine any pitcher, including Sheets and Harden, wouldn’t mind staying in the NL either.
Great post!
What are your thoughts on Randy Wolf? Is it likely that LAD will offer arbitration? If not would he be too expensive for us?
Thanks.
Great post. Way to drop the Twain quote, hilarious.
Kelvim Escobar might be done after missing the essentially the last two years, but at a bargain basement price, he might be an interesting alternative reclamation project.
I think Kelvim has demonstrated that, awesome as he can be, he can’t throw enough to be a starter.
Nick Johnson had all the intangibles to be the next Will Clark/Mark grace type player if he didn’t have all those freakish injuries! I would love to see him in Seattle for a season or two! Great post Dave and thanks for answering my request for you to post something like this!
If it cost 10M for a high risk pitcher such as Sheets would it be better to just spend the extra 5M and pursue John Lackey? The difference is the number of years though.
Lackey’s going to get more than $15 million per year. Also, the difference in commitment length is going to be substantial.
Dave,
Would you consider Lackey a good investment or an extremely risky one? I know the further a pitcher is into his career the higher the risk for injury. Also how many years would Lackey get? And at 15M to 18M/YR?
Thanks
Given the price he’ll command, I’m not interested. I’d max out at something like 4/60, and he’s going to get something more like 6/100.
Excellent post Dave, and comes at a time as I am tweaking all my various offseason plans, so thanks! There are really a lot of pitchers out there that will, for one reason or another, be undervalued.
I’m wondering what you think about Brett Myers, Jarrod Washburn and Brad Penny? Any of those guys worth kicking the tires on?
Dave,
Last year the economy for all but the top tier free agents appeared to be quite depressed. Will we see that again this year? Are teams still as worried about the economic situation? More worried?
Thanks.
Also…
There has been a lot of talk about Prince Fielder. Is there any chance we would go after him in a trade?
Is resigning Branyan a forgone conclusion?
Screw Lackey. Give the money to Felix instead.
Great ideas all around. How possible do you think it would be to sign three of these guys? Personally, I’d love to see them add two of those starters as well as Nick Johnson. Is it realistic to think they could go after two of Harden/Sheets/Bedard and still have enough in the tank to make a move like Johnson? Or does the risk just become too great at that point? Seems like a god way to make up some of that WAR with fewer bodies (of course, if those signings all work out on the reward side of the spectrum). Great post though!
Also, have you heard any talk/speculation about the Big Unit or is it more the type of player who fits the mold? Would love to see him back, just haven’t heard anyone mention him as a possibility for next year yet.
Also, if we did resign Randy, does that mean Junior has to come back with him? And then can we bring Edgar back? j/k
Keep up the great work! Sites like yours and reports like this are what make the offseason so exciting!
I have a suggestion and I’m not totally kidding either. The Mariners could put together the complete nostalgic team.
Sign Randy Johnson
Sign Omar Vizquel
Resign Griffey Jr.
Johnson is a good option of Morrow is traded. Vizquel is still highly regarded defensively and would make a great player off the bench. Bring Griffey back as the pinch hitter/DH of the bench. Call it the official last round.
Screw Lackey. Give the money to Felix instead.
For this reason, Alan Nero may well be waiting for Lackey to sign before framing what Felix’s contract demands would be.
Great post. I’d rather see Rich Harden than Rich Hill, if you catch my drift. This is a great season for the Mariners to make this type of signing.
I’m curious, Dave: Who are your final cuts on the injury risk list? Mark Mulder? I can’t think of anyone else not already mentioned. I’m not counting guys who are damaged and would need to sign a minor-league deal — e.g. San Diego/Mark Prior a couple of years ago.
Raphael Soriano is coming off a 2-year/$9M deal…
Of the DH candidates out there I like Milton Bradley the best:
Johnson 566AB .277/.424/.410
Delgado 1230AB .267/.347/.488
BradleyRH 307AB .329/.423/.570
BradleyLH 709AB .278/.400/.463
If we can get Bradley by packaging Carlos Silva and a useful cheaper player like Lowe, Carp (if he isn’t going get a shot to play regularly), or even possibly Vargas, or Fister, then it would be worth it. Plus some cash, likely.
At this point Silva is pretty much sunk costs, Bradley is a problem for the Cubs but he is still a useful player. Any outcome that would get us Bradley for less than 6m per year net, after subtracting Silva’s salary and the value of any prospects, I think would be a huge win for the Mariners. And the Cubs may end up being happy too.
Excellent post, Dave, and I think it goes to the heart of what you said earlier, that your offseason plan is fungible as long as its principles are followed.
I have not found much yet on whether the M’s should take a different sort of risk and target Adrian Gonzalez. Adding a 4-5 WAR first baseman who will make $11 million total over the next two years might be worth Jose Lopez and half the farm (Ackley and Triunfel excluded). Plus, David Eckstein is the current 2B in San Diego. However, it might cost more to get him than anyone else who is available. I would like to hear thoughts on a possible Adrian Gonzalez trade.
If they were to bring back Randy, what number would he wear?
On Bradley I understand the intrigue of him, turning a sunk cost (Silva) into a guy who could fill in at DH, and maybe a little in Left. But coming off the love fest year, Bradley is probably the last person anyone in a M’s uniform wants to see walk into the clubhouse. The trade of WAR would be nice, but the negative effect wouldn’t be worth the risk.
Adrian Gonzalez would take way to much for us to acquire, maybe if we dealt Felix in a three way trade where we got like Clay Bucholz and the Sox paid the prospect toll for Adrian, besides that, I probably wouldn’t pay the price for him.
I love the idea of bringing in Nick Johnson, he should be priority #1 in my mind. I wouldn’t mind us trying to get 2 of those starters, I realize pitchers get paid, but I could see a reasonable price tag on Bedard or Randy, and if you could get those guys for under 5M i would go for one of them on top of Sheets.
Heh…the M’s could probably get Johnson for free because they could offset his cost by the increased number of Ichiro jerseys they’d sell if he changed his number.
It’s just a number, but I think Ichiro has earned #51.
Gotta nitpick your level of adjective here.
2008-9 K rates
Harden: 29.1%
Lincecum: 28.8%
I’m sure Lincecum would love an extra 0.3% increase in his strikeout rate (worth an additional three strikeouts per year), but “jealous of”? I think that language paints the wrong image that Harden was significantly better at it than Lincecum was when they were for all essential worth, equal.
Sorry, that’s actually 29.2% for Harden. Typo.
what about Matsui? They just said Yankees are only going to keep Damon or Matsui.
I agree on Matsui, why not him? He’s 35 so he’s not as old as Delgado. Left-handed power, check…good OBP guy, check…
He’s probably a DH only is the downside but he wouldn’t need to platoon either.
The other thing with Matsui is the M’s might have a real shot to get him with Japanese ownership and Ichiro here. If the Yankees don’t bring him back, the M’s seem like a very logical fit.
I’m all for Nick Johnson and Harden. Love the Unit but just don’t see him coming back.
Damon and Matsui will both be back in pinstripes next year, the Yankees are just trying to lower payroll. Weird, I know.
*sigh*
Matsui still has a big bat, but he can’t play in the field at all. Not to put words in Dave’s mouth, but I’m guessing that’s what he means when he says that with Branyan’s back problems, the M’s can’t sacrifice that much flexibility by having a DH who would hurt the team if he played in the field.
Felix, Harden, Randy, Snell, RRS – If healthy, that looks pretty good to me. Especially with the backups like Morrow & Fister or Vargas
I we go for a retro-Mariner look in 2010 how about Joel Pinero?
To quote your Fan Graph post “If you believe that he’s really reinvented himself into being the new Aaron Cook, then you’re looking at Pineiro as a ~3 win pitcher, and that’s probably worth around $12 to $13 million per season on a two or three year deal. But how much confidence do you have in his ability to retain a good chunk of this year’s value, considering it’s a radical change from everything he’d ever done before.
There’s certainly more risk factors with Pineiro, so that will lead to a discount of some sort. But how much?”
His 4.8 WAR this year is impressive (and unusual for him.) After Beltre going from a 10.0 WAR in 2004 to 2.5 WAR in 2005 I wonder of one year wonders are more risky than the walking wounded. If not we might swap out Jose Lopez for Felipe Lopez who was worth 4.6 WAR this year.
Ichiro rf
Figgins 3rd
Johnson dh/1st
Branyan 1st/dh
Gutierrez cf
Tui 2nd
Moore c
Wilson ss
Saunders lf
Lopez and Morrow used in a trade for ?????
I have been trying to think of some high upside guys that may be available. Is there any chance that KC has soured on Alex Gordon enough for us to make a run at him? They just traded for Josh Fields.
This is a post on the free agent class, so Dave deliberately avoided talking about people the M’s would have to get by trading, like Fielder or Adrian Gonzales….
…or, especially, Milton Bradley, who Dave has already discussed at length.
Back when Matsui first came over there was a fair amount of (mostly unsourced) discussion that Matsui and Ichiro didn’t want to play on the same team (unless it was the WBC National team for Japan). I don’t know how real that was, and I don’t know if it has changed since, but it’s perhaps too simplistic to assume “Japanese = automatic fit!”
Pinero isn’t damaged so he’s unlikely to be cheap (though his NLCS performance certainly didn’t help his prospects) but he is intriguing enough to look at. His unusual WAR was entirely based on being the groundballing-est pitcher in baseball by a considerable margin. He may indeed have reinvented himself, but 2009 was probably an extreme version of this new self (in other words, that NLCS performance shouldn’t be ignored). You would expect his numbers to drop in the AL anyway, and a groundballer is highly dependent on his infield defense, so if you’re thinking about him for the M’s you can’t ignore the Beltre question (or, for that matter, any of the other possible questions around the infield). And does he keep this up once he’s no longer under Dave Duncan’s watchful eye?
151? Oh, wait, that’s David Wells.
Love to. The question is whether he’ll take it or not.
Exactly how long do you want the team to be a non-contender?
I agree. Remember his rift with the FO? Or rather, a particular member of the FO who is still here?
Very nice, joser. (Wasn’t it Wells that said he was half drunk when he pithed his perfect game?)
Or it might have been when he pitched the perfect game.
Pairing Matsui with Ichiro, but his HR/FB nearly doubled this year thanks to the new stadium, and I don’t think he’ll come anywhere near as cheap as these guys given that he’s coming off a 28HR season and a world series win. He had a good year despite a low BABIP which will probably return to career norms, but I don’t want any part of him at the $8-11million/year I suspect he’ll command in FA.
No, you were right the first time. ‘Pithed’ is what he said. Remember, he was drunk.
That should read “Pairing Matsui with Ichiro would be a great story, but…”
Not only was he drunk, he was missing a couple of teeth.
That is pitifuly hilarious. I’m sure the mithing teefus was why he was slurring. Well, maybe not…
Hi, I’m David Wells, and I juth pithed a ferpect game! And now I’m going to LisneyDand! Where I’ll puke on Shoofy’s gooes.
Harden isn’t just “a local kid from B.C.,” he’s from Victoria. Just like Saunders. All those people who value clubhouse chemistry have to appreciate that. It’s why we want Venezuelans in the clubhouse to keep Felix happy, and why it’s so important to have at least a couple of guys from those special baseball islands like Dominica, Cuba….and Vancouver. Pairing Harden and Saunders will multiply all the intangibles that will unlock heretofore unrealized performance. They can have crumpets on the team buffet table, and tea after batting practice, and argue (quietly and politely) about who gets the top or bottom of the double-decker bus they take to the stadium.
Dominica? Nuh-uh. The Dominican Republic and Haiti ahare the island of Hispaniola. Dominica is another island altogether, a former British possession.
Pardon joser, they are Canadian, yes? Said argument would most likely be loud and filled with fun-loving 4-letter words and sweet descriptions of who the other’s mother is currently copulating with on whatever hockey team they happen to detest the most.
Man, everybody misses the joke.
I believe the proper term is “Pardon joser, they are Canadian, eh?”
I guess you’ll have to dumb the next one down a bit for us, we’re not all Canadian ya know.