Beltre and Arb. Offers
I did a post over on FanGraphs this afternoon looking at the economics of an arbitration offer. I used Beltre as the example in the post, so if you’re curious about whether or not the M’s should offer him arbitration, that’s probably not a bad spot to start reading.
I think the M’s will offer arbitration to Beltre but not to Bedard. There’s enough information available to presume that the chances of Beltre accepting the arbitration offer are pretty low, which reduces the risk of the offer, even if the M’s determine they want to go another direction at third base. Bedard, on the other, isn’t going to get guaranteed millions even with teams pursuing him – he’ll get a low base with incentives, much like Pavano did a year ago. That kind of contract offer isn’t available via arbitration, so he’d be more likely to accept.
Either way, I don’t expect either to be on the team next year, but I’d guess that the M’s will only end up collecting one draft pick, not two.