The Figgins Rumor Passes
The newest rumor makes a lot more sense, and this one I’d believe. If the M’s are going to spend big on a hitter this winter, Chone Figgins makes the most sense of any free agent.
Remember how we talked about the team needing options, not solutions, at multiple positions? That’s Figgins. He’s a good glove at third, a solid glove at second, and decent in the outfield. Which infield spot he played could be determined after they figure out what the trade market for Jose Lopez looks like, and even after they see Tui take groundballs at both 2B and 3B in spring training. Or, if they keep Lopez and Tui has a monster spring, easily outplaying Saunders, he could shift to left field for a while.
He would give the team a tremendous amount of flexibility in developing their young players without having to count on any one of them. That type of multi-position availability is a real positive given the construction of the roster. Where a player like Bay would get in the way of the development of the youngsters, Figgins would give the team the ability to let the kids compete against each other.
Figgins isn’t going to repeat his 2009 season again, but he’s probably a +3 win player for 2010, about as valuable as either Beltre or Bay in production. The added value of his positional flexibility and his ability to switch-hit makes him the best fit for this roster, assuming the price isn’t exorbitant. At something like 4/40, Figgins makes a lot of sense for this team.
Don’t buy into the Jason Bay rumors. Do buy into the Chone Figgins rumors. This one passes all the logic tests.
Wouldn’t mind having him. It sounds like it’s going to get done
Don’t go that far. Lots of talk gets overblown this time of year. Odds are good the M’s and Figgins agent are talking. There’s no way to know if it will get done or not.
Good point his agent is probably in other discussions. I am just ancy and want to see something happen.
What I’m wondering about is price. I’d love him at the price you mentioned, 4/40, but before the off-season started I think most people were talking about him picking up a contract well north of $10 million per year.
I really hope we get Figgins.
(For a reasonable deal).
He lost a suitor when the Phillies signed Polanco. I don’t think its a coincidence that the rumored interest by the M’s picked up right after that. Philly was always the team most likely to spend big on Figgins, and with that option gone, his price probably declines a bit.
It’s funny because I was thinking about Polanco for the M’s just the other day. His price would have been significantly lower than some other options and he also gives you the 2B/3B flexibility that the team could have used. When the Phillies signed him I was a little sad, although I wouldn’t have given him that third year.
On the other hand I think it was silly of any player to think the Phillies were going to hand out a big contract for a 3rd baseman this off-season, they just didn’t have money in their budget for that kind of move.
I’d think he’s likely to be a lot better than a 3 WAR player. A decent projection would have him around 4 or maybe even 5. Even considering a little aging through the length of the deal, you’re still looking at 3.5 to 4 per year. At 4/40, he’d be a steal.
I have to say, I like the idea of Chone being in a M’s uniform. I’m a pretty reactional reader, but after looking up his handedness, splits and defensive history, I think he’s exactly the player Z would be targeting. Options, options, options… that’s what Z seems to be about right now. This move would do just that, provide a proven player with loads of flexibility.
5 bucks says Dave knows Tango has recomended Figgins to the M’s.
You’re putting too much weight on his most recent season, Nathaniel. Give him a .340 wOBA and +5 defense at third base, and he comes out as a 3 to +3.5 win player, depending on how many PA you project him for.
I was hoping for Polonco because I thought he’d be cheaper than Figgins and about as effective. But that signing could help with the money side of landing Figgins.
If you can get Figgins to sign for say, 4 yrs $36 mil, that gives you enough to go get Harden and bring back Branyan to DH.
Also, with Figgins being a switch hitter and multi-positional, he addresses several of the M’s needs.
You sold me, get it done Z!
This kind of analysis is helpful, but not absolute. I would caution us… not from approving the Figgins deal as more likely, but from dismissing Bay so quickly. For all we know, Z may have alternate plans that would open up a spot for Bay that would reduce the overlap.
It’s safer to say such a move would require more space-clearing than a Figgins move. All this being said… I greatly prefer the Figgins idea, myself – although we *do* need RH power too…
Not in love with the idea of losing our first round pick, but I do think Chone’d bring a lot to the team. Would he knock Ichiro out of the lead off spot? I’d have to guess he wouldn’t. Not that Figgins first’d necessarily be the wrong move, but Ichiro first is like Pike Place Market or Dick’s Drive In. It’s a Seattle institution.
One thing that reading USSM has taught me the last 3 years is that position players effect BOTH offense and defense. I used to view position players more on their offensive merit and then view pitching as the “pitching/defense” element. I always appreciated great defense but didn’t understand how to quantify it. It’s AWESOME that UZR and other metrics have come out that can help us see what great defense looks like.
With that said, I personally want players that can influence both offense and defense. Figgins can influence both offense and defense. He has speed which doesn’t slump…he gets on base…he switch hits…he plays a ton of positions. He’s been one of the more valuable Angels players for many years. Ichiro-Figgins at the top of the lineup would dramatically improve this team.
Then let’s look at the intangible factor of taking one of the most popular players off your arch rival. Figgins seems like a spark-plug type player for the Angels and while they have a great organization and would move on, I have to think that would be a blow to them to see him go to the M’s.
Dave, I agree with ALL your points, Figgins seems like a FANTASTIC fit for the M’s!
If this gets done, Ryan Howard may end up with more HRs than the entire Mariners team next season. Pitching and defense is great and all, but I am having a hard time seeing where the runs will come from. Of course, if we win big next year I could care less about runs!
I also love that he had 101 walks last year. His previous career high was 65. Dave, do you see that as an abberation or is it possible that Figgins is becoming even more patient as he ages?
It’s pretty apparent that the Mariners are sticking there noses into anything they can. Z said that there doors would be wide open, and that they would explore every option out there. It’s not a huge statement, but the difference between the Figgins rumor and the Bay/Harden/Lackey rumors is that the Figgins rumor stated that the Mariners actually had “serious talks” with Figgins’ agent. It also was a seperate article on foxsports.com instead of an update on the hotstove report. Nothing huge, just possibly key details making this seem more legit of a possible signing then the others.
I don’t think we need to get caught up in worrying about HR’s. Runs are runs. Figgins had 101 walks, a .395 OBP, 42 steals and scored 114 runs (granted the Angels offense had something to do with runs scored).
Chone Figgins would add runs to this offense.
Personally I have always wanted this team to be built more around patient hitters with speed than a bunch of power hitters like Sexson. I think Safeco is built for guys with speed that can hit it in the alleys and run forever.
You really can’t let yourself get sucked into his numbers last year. I am not saying that he is going to be atrocious next season, I am just saying that the chances are good that they come down a wee bit. He would still be a more than solid addition, if we were to acquire him though.
I guess I need to do another post on why phrases like “we need power” are useless. Do you guys realize that the M’s and Cardinals had the same number of home runs last year?
WOW! I wasn’t aware of that stat at all. That’s amazing.
It’s is almost impossible for a fan to contain himself when rumors such as these start popping up everywhere this time of year.
I’m not, really. I’m looking at his whole career and putting in high and low projections for his WAR components (including baserunning) and he comes out at about 4-5 WAR. I can’t do a proper wOBA projection for him because I don’t have reached base on error figures for either him or the league, but he’s averaged about +7 RAA on offense, has a UZR/150 of +8 at 3B (anybody’s guess how reliable that is), averages +6.5 runs on the bases. Using James’ projection and scaling to 150 games, his projection is 4.3. Using a Marcel-type projection would be even higher, because it looks most heavily at the last 2 seasons, when his offense has been up and his UZR has been huge.
Yeah, we dont “need power”, we need more wOBA.
Nathaniel,
Check out the last two comments.
http://ussmariner.com/2009/11/28/why-i-have-hope-beltre-will-return-to-the-team/
M’s talking with Cameron’s agent, rumored deal to be worth up to 14 million over two years…
The problem with Figgins is that he is too passive at the plate, he only swings 14.9% of pitches outside the zone which is 4th lowest in the majors. With Beltre you could count on him trying to make things happen and having an O swing % north of 35%.
Then the speculation of trading Lopez just makes things worse, Lopez is also in the top 10 for O swing %, and Swing%. I don’t see where the Mariners are going to compensate for all the hacks they’ll be losing without Beltre and Lopez.
The other downside to signing Figgins is that there won’t be enough money left to squeeze in Bay.
What? Mike Cameron? 14 million/2years? Why?
Kaz,
You either have a great sense of humor or you’re a moron. I’m betting the former.
Yes, of course I was aware of those. One of the comments is mine. What is it you’re trying to say?
The other one was mine.
I’m not, really. I’m looking at his whole career and putting in high and low projections for his WAR components (including baserunning) and he comes out at about 4-5 WAR.
Then you’re putting in overly optimistic numbers. You have to regress more than you are.
Do you have any idea of what Taylor H is talking about?
“Do you guys realize that the M’s and Cardinals had the same number of home runs last year?”
It might be worth noting that the Cards had a player batting who was not a pro hitter. Thats right 11% of the time the Cards have a pitcher hit. Dave you’re great and I’ve I learned a ton from you but thats bad.
Do you guys think that Figgins could play second and we possibly still sign Beltre and then trade lopez? I find that as a serious possibility especially if we find a suitor for Lopez. Only thing is that Beltre’s agent is Boras and he wants a multi year deal. Surprise Surprise.
Plus, Figgins is a switch-hitter, which this team could really use. And when he hits from the right side he doesn’t get punished by Safeco. Since he puts the ball on the ground and uses his speed, that huge left-center power alley doesn’t hurt him. Hell, it might help, by enhancing his double and triple numbers.
I’d really like to see Figgins with the M’s next year. I think he’s a great fit, and a wonderful guy to put in the two spot right behind Ichiro.
The M’s and Angels could trade third basemen this off-season and both teams could improve because of it.
Nathaniel Dawson –
There is absolutely no way that Figgins gets $13-17M a year!
Hard to guess what Figgins might get, but I’d bet it’ll be more than that, maybe $13 to 17MM per year
The point I want to make is that the way things are shaping up (possibly) could suggest that it’s a buyer’s market for FA’s. If that’s the case, then the M’s are in great shape. Figgins is the one I really wanted, but I still think they can get Nick Johnson and Guerrero. I think they’ll be cheaper than expected too.
As far as pitching goes, I hope they can sign Harden and Bedard. And I want to see Morrow start. I think these additions would give them a legitimate shot at a World Series. The contracts would be mostly short-term and are within their budget. And they would maintain their longer term rebuilding trajectory, i.e., no prospects lost.
I’d really like to see Figgins with the M’s next year. I think he’s a great fit, and a wonderful guy to put in the two spot right behind Ichiro.
Figgins would lead off and Ichiro would hit second. At least that’s the way I see it.
Does anyone know anything about this 2 year 14 million dollar Mike Cameron deal that Taylor H mentioned?
I was referring to Dave Cameron… It was a joke on the uselessness of rumors.
Haha phew
If he ends up signing with the M’s, I hope not!
If you look at the first few contracts that have signed, it could be. Those have all pretty much been defense first infielder types, which typically get undersold.
Wow – most NL teams use a pinch hitter for their pitchers once or twice a game, but the Cardinals always let their pitchers hit. I did not know that.
And include a link to the post in “Reference Material” so that we can easily point to it and mock people for ignoring it.
It might be worth noting that the Cards had a player batting who was not a pro hitter.
#9 hitters:
Seattle – 8 home runs
St. Louis – 6 home runs
Oh, but you say, LaRussa hits the pitcher 8th all the time, so that comparison doesn’t work?
#8 hitters:
Seattle – 17 home runs
St. Louis – 13 home runs
Hmm. Maybe I know what I’m talking about.
M’s were at the bottom of the AL in both SLG and OPS. The Cards were right in the middle in NL. Sure there are lots of ways to score runs, but the M’s need another bat (or three) who can drive the ball. It’s hard to imagine the M’s winning the division if that doesn’t change, but I’m looking forward to the post that explains why I’m wrong!
Long-time reader, first-time poster, love the site Dave & Derek!
Chone Figgins has been my favorite MLB player the past few years, and it be awesome to have him on my favorite baseball team. I agree I’d move Ichiro to #2, no real reason, just assuming Ichiro is kinda-leadoff-kinda-3rd hitter, so put him right in the middle, where Figgins is a standard leadoff hitter. One of those two would get on base nearly every go around, the first inning would be deadly every game.
Of course this is just a rumor, but if we lose Beltre, Figgins wouldn’t make me miss him at all.
Congrats to the M’s who don’t need more power! They tied the Cardinals (and Baltimore!) in homers. You’re right Dave the M’s don’t need to improve on their 23rd of 30 slugging % in MLB. Such little room for improvement. Forgive me for not looking up the wOBA on that, I’m sure its piss poor as well. Oh wait we put up a 313 as team! So a league avg wOBA maybe slightly above (CHONE!) would be an improvement. Lets hope he’s a good fielder. Wait a second…. Chone has graded out as a sub 0 UZR in 3 out of the last 5 years. I’m on board. Sign him and give him millions. Give him Silva money.
I think the M’s would love to sign Figgins at 4/40. But I’m pessimistic about the chances.
The idea of Figgins and Wilson on the left side makes me smile almost as much as Beltre and Wilson. And there’s the obvious upside with Figgins at the plate. Did someone say 395 OBP? Man, that’s getting close to Edgar territory there.
And if this happens, I’m perfectly fine using the rest of the available dollars to chase starters. Nick Johson would be nice, but we’re at least one starter away from serious contention.
Thanks for the edit, we’ll try this again.
James already has a conservative offensive projection for Figgins at +2.5 runs. Using other conservative figures for the inputs (UZR/150 +8, base running +5) and scaling to 150 games, his WAR is 4. Doing a simple Marcel-type projection (5/4/3/2 with 14% regression on each year) and scaling to 138 games, his WAR is 4.1. Both projections are fairly conservative, but I would think pretty close. FWIW, Fangraphs projection (perhaps not without bias) right now has him at 4.5 WAR.
I put it up on Google docs if you wanted to see how it all adds up.
Who is the least valuable player between Chone Figgins, Ichiro, Nick Johnson and Jose Lopez? Who has the power?
Chone has graded out as a sub 0 UZR in 3 out of the last 5 years. I’m on board. Sign him and give him millions. Give him Silva money.
Wow. I haven’t really read the comments sections in a while so I have to ask.
Has the level of stupid really increased this much on the blog, or is that just confined to this thread?
Hmmm…Figgins = Mark McLemore version 2010??
Kinda like the sound of that, actually.
Congrats to the M’s who don’t need more power!
The M’s need better hitters. Power is one element of hitting, and would certainly improve the Mariners, but not the only one- case in point, Jose Lopez, who doesn’t grade out as an above-average hitter at his position despite having above-average power for his position (in fact, Adam Kennedy graded out as a better hitter than Lopez did last year).
In fact, almost half the team (C, 3B, SS, LF) was well below .300 OBP last year, and 2B (the aforementioned Lopez) was just a hair above it at .303. So no, the Mariners could easily improve their run scoring problems by keeping their raw power where it currently is at, and by adding pure OBP.
Oh, and the division-leading 2009 Angels, as a contrast? 13 more HRs than the M’s, 40 more XBHs… but 243 more baserunners.
And as a footnote to that, the 2009 M’s outhomered the 2009 Angels on the road, 84-83 (granted, the Angels played 10 road games at the Safe).
Yeah, because most AL teams use a power hitter in their 9th spot. If it wasn’t for that no-DH rule they’d get to put Pujols in that spot. Too bad for them! Sucks to be in the NL.
What’s also bad is your lack of an apostrophe.
Didn’t mean to imply above that NL team are forced to bat the pitcher 9th.
His career UZR at second is -4.6. Is 113 games over 8 years (about an eighth of his pro playing time) too small / scattered a sample?
Same basic comment for the outfield.
Chone Figgins’ fielding, on Fangraphs
Why is UZR irrelevant here?
Although back when Rey Ordonez was playing for the Mets about ten years ago, it was almost counterproductive to bat him in front of the pitcher.
No. Most commenters try very hard to add to the conversation, but we have a small element that is more interested in trying to “gotcha!” the authors than contribute.
Anyway, did last year really teach people nothing? There is one thing that matters for winning baseball games. Scoring more runs than you allow.
How you get there is completely irrelevant. A team built on run prevention can win despite a mediocre offense.
I must admit to a not entirely rational interest in Figgins simply because he’s one of those guys, like Pudge, Palmeiro and Vlad, who always seemed to hit about .900 in the games I saw them, and we’ve never had one of them on our team before. But I wish we could have got him five years ago.
AFAIK, Figgins is a type A free agent who’s been offered arbitration. Losing the first round pick would be bad, losing it to the Angels even worse.
I would be happy to sign Figgins just so we don’t have to face him all season. Bat him second behind Ichiro and you start the lineup with two very difficult outs.
Yeah, but the 7 and 8 hitters in the NL are the real equivalent to the 8 and 9 hitters in the AL. The difference is that instead of the 9 hitter being a pitcher, he’s replaced by (hopefully) a 3, 4 or 5 hitter in the AL.
Does it matter that 10 of the 12 teams below the M’s and Cards are NL teams? (KC and Oakland) Or that 7 of the top 9 were AL teams? (Philly and Colorado)
Just seemed like an unfair comparison. Comparing the NL pitcher’s spot to the AL DH spot is the true equivalent, eh?
I like Figgins, however the M’s need to get some power somewhere at some point and 3B is a power position. I like him at second but his glove is not as good at second as at third so his value drops. Overall, I’m not in love with this move.
Where to bat Figgins and Ichiro would be an interesting but nice quandry. Being patient and a switch hitter seems to make Figgins the perfect two hitter. Time for Ichiro to decide to steal and if not a excellent hit and run combo.
I love the homerun after following the Griffey and Buhner show in the 90s but I will lots of base runners any day over a solo homerun.
Oh yeah! Actually you can have a good OBP and be able to hit homeruns – Griffey did it for years!
And as much as Sexson drove us crazy, he had one of the higher OBP while with the Mariners (guess that isnt saying much with Betancourt, Lopez and Beltre on team)!!
I’d like to introduce you to the Seattle Mariners, circa 1988.
Wow, that must be one of the most moronic things I’ve ever read on this blog. For a second I thought I was on mlb.com wading through the crap that all the asinine boneheads post on there. Thank goodness this kind of immature and narrow-minded BS can only be found in places few and far between on this awesome site.
Cue the mockery…?
I would love this signing. He is very similar to Mark Mclemore, who was a very fun M to watch. Figgins has been #1 on my wish list for FA’s for a long time. Love the flexibility he provides, especially with Tui,Carlos T, and Ackley’s uncertain positions/skills.
In regards to power, I prefer winning baseball games. Also, which “power” third baseman does everyone propose we acquire?
In regards to the batting order, I’d think batting Ichiro second would make more sense. The reason being if Figgins is on first Ichiro is more likely to get a hit and with Figgins’ speed he can move from first to third. Obviously Ichiro can get from first to third, but this is one case where a hit is more valuable than a walk.
All I know is, whoever bats behind those two will drive in a lot of runs. Maybe they could win the MVP!
You’re all free to disagree with Dave, of course, but some of you clearly suck and we’re not going to put up with it. Argue rationally and without the bullshit, please. For those of you that can’t, well, that’s not really my problem.
Edit: Of course, the same goes for people who simultaneously agree with Dave and suck.
See? Compared to Graham, I’m the nice one.
re: losing the draft pick– from Zduriencik yesterday:
“Zduriencik also said he wouldn’t oppose losing next year’s draft pick if it would help acquire a player who could help them on a long-term basis.
Drafting 18th, he said, doesn’t bring the same guarantee of a player who’ll make an impact at the big leagues as someone in the top four or five picks.
“We all know lot of draft picks fall flat on their face,†Zduriencik said. “You have to weigh all of that. You have to weigh whoever you sign and … how does he impact the big-league club and for how long?—
I agree with this. Imagine Ichiro coming up with Figgins on base in front of him close to 40% of the time. That hole on the right side with the first baseman holding the runner? One of the middle infielders pinched toward second in anticipation of the steal?
That could move Ichiro back into the 250 hit neighborhood.
No, no, no, no!
What the Mariners need is a good batter. Period.
OPS is a good shorthand for evaluation batters (SLG + OBP), but remember what they say about it–SLG is OVERemphasized in it. OBP has substantially better value.
The first rule of batting should be Don’t Make An Out.
Like this. Much more nuanced and intelligent stance than a blanket set of rules of thumb. For the right signing, giving up the 18th pick might make sense.
A team built on run prevention can win despite a mediocre offense.
Yes, but the M’s would have to improve the offense considerably to get to “mediocre”, given that (given today’s roster) right now whoever is playing C is pretty terrible, you’re switching out Branyan for Carp, Betancourt for Wilson is pretty much a wash offensively (yes, I know, not defensively, but I’m not arguing the M’s DEFENSE sucks), Hannahan/Hall/Tui might not even match Beltre’s down year in 2008, and Griffey at DH is arguably the worst DH in the AL.
It’s pretty hard to contend with an offense at the bottom of your league like the 2009 M’s had (and as it stands today, the 2010 roster is a step BEHIND the 2009 roster). The ’67 White Sox did it in the modern dead-ball era of the 1960′s, and the 1985 Royals won it ALL with a bad offense, but those are the only examples I can think of in the recent past… and neither of those teams were dead last in their league in offense like the 2009 Mariners were.
The thing is, of course, that all the “M’S NEED MOAH POWAH” posters are missing the point that power is one and only one of the elements of offense- and the 2009 M’s sucked at nearly all of the elements. The M’s could use a guy with a lifetime .363 OBP like Figgins in their offense- and given that Figgins isn’t a defensive millstone like Bay, he makes more sense on the roster overall in that respect, given that the Mariners have elected to carry one defensive millstone (hi, Junior!).
Yes. That’s not even one full season. Also, you should pay more attention to the number of starts, which is only 86, than the number of games. If you look at his innings at second (794.1), it basically reflects starts, not late-inning substitutions or position switches.
UZR isn’t irrelevant, but there’s less information here than usual because Figgins has moved around so much. The one outfield position he’s played substantially is center, and his UZR there is slightly negative. His numbers at other positions you pretty much have to throw out. If he’s a bit below average as an outfielder, it’s not the end of the world. Nobody expects him to be Death to Flying Things, we already have someone else for that, and outfield is where Figgins is least likely to play for the Mariners.
It was a general point, you silly.
Jeff,
Damn, you are the nice one!
did,
that’s exactly the image I had conjured up when I thought about Figgins in the lineup. I like the idea of the occasional “…1st and 3rd, nobody out, and some muscle stepping up to the plate”. yeah, I can see Figgins fitting in.
I have an entirely irrational dislike of Figgins based primarily on how his parents spelled his first name. Or how he pronounces it. As I said, it’s entirely irrational.
It was a general point, you silly.
Yes, but at some point, the low-hanging fruit on defensive improvement gets picked. I think one can argue that given the current roster, it’s mostly all gone for the 2010 roster, compared to where we were in the 2008-2009 offseason- the only place the M’s have a poor defender at a critical defensive position is arguably C (and that’s only arguable because nobody knows how to evaluate the “pitchers love to throw to Rob Johnson” factor- everything else about him screams mediocre to terrible), and Lopez at 2B is the only so-so one (and he’s not really a defensive liability, as irritating as some of his errors seem to be). At some point, the team’s going to HAVE to add offense to get where they need to go (though there’s plenty of room to improve pitching talent in the rotation and in the ‘pen).
At this point, I’m wanting Gregg Zaun really badly, because our C siutation strikes me as the biggest hole on the roster- which would be another rumor that passes the smell test, like Figgins.
Ah, great point. So long as we have a heart of the order that can dependably drive Figgins and Ichiro in, I guess I’d be more ok with it.
Here is one scenario I’ve been pondering, Figgins hits first, Gutierrez second and then Ichiro third. This gives you a switch hitter with high OBP to start the inning and guy who can handle the bat behind him and then Ichiro providing protection for the young Gutierrez. Then you bring in your RBI / power guys in the 4 and 5 spots. Upsides I see as added RBI opportunities for the team’s best hitter and more fastballs for Gutierrez. Downsides would be fewer at bats for Ichiro! and Branyan or whomever the M’s sign that would fill the traditional #3 hole.
Opinions? To me that could lead to a lot of very exciting first innings. Plus it would give us a chance to see Ichiro! swing for the fence a few more times a season as he claims to be able to do.
Yes, agree. Zduriencik tries to build around players who project to be here for three years (taking into account contract status and age). He’s not above getting free talent to fill in for a year (hello, Russell Branyan!) but when he pays out in significant money or in valuable trade talent he is looking at the next three years.
Despite Dave’s comparison of the 8 and 9 spots, Cardinal pitchers only hit 3 home runs last year. But where the comparison of the Cardinals and the Mariners HR’s stands up, is that Pujols’ production is worth 2 normal players. Our best and worse postitions, 1b and LF totaled 42HRs, Pujols and the pitchers had 48.
Not to put words in Dave’s mouth, but I think the point may have been that the Cards got into the postseason with the same amount of homers.
lol….. I always thought it was pronounced ‘chown’. When I hear it pronounced ‘sean’ I just shook my head. Really…….REALLY?
With that said. I would love to have Chown Figgins in the lineup. Batting right after Ichiro would mean far less 3 up and 3 down starts to the game.
I wonder if Ichiro prefers to bat lead-off, though. But we’re getting way ahead of ourselves here. While I’m sure Wakamatsu would like to have the problem of filling out the top of the batting order, I’m a little more concerned about the price tag on Figgins and — more importantly — what doors that would close wrt other acquisitions. I love having the flexibility of Hall+Langerhans+Hannahan combined in one (better) player, and I’d love to see some of the Tui/Carp/Saunders contingent do well enough in ST to win a starting spot — but I worry that a couple of them will fall into fulltime work just because the team can’t afford anything better (especially when pitching and especially Felix still has to be addressed). Depending on what it would cost and what the team has to work with (post-Felix deal), a Figgins acquisition may mean most everything else would have to be accomplished via trade. And while Zduriencik has already amassed a reputation as a miracle-worker in that regard, he can’t always get what he wants and we can’t always expect a Franklin Gutierrez.
Also, I appreciate that Zduriencik is flexible regarding the value of draft picks — as long as he doesn’t reach the Gillickian point of devaluing them completely (which seems unlikely, but my bad front office hangover continues.)
I think there’s a certain seasonality to it. We’re in the silly season right now, where every guy who has ever filled out a fantasy roster thinks he’s qualified to talk trades and analyze acquisitions. Add to that the nature of Seattle sports at the moment: in past years a lot of the wild-eyed bandwagon-jumping half-wits were spending their Decembers obsessing over the Seahawks or, earlier, the Sonics (or even earlier, the Huskies). And maybe the demise of the PI newspaper (even as it continues as a web presence) has created something of a diaspora among its forums’ lunatic fringe (and the fringe there was very wide, in fact it was most of the fabric). Couple all of that with the increased visibility of this blog and you have a recipe for drive-by ready-fire-aim stupidity.
But in this particular instance we also had sarcasm unleavened by any sense of humor, which just comes across as angry-little-man-at-the-keyboard. Which of course is usually the case.
To wit, OBP is valued less than power in the market. And it might be easier to improve the OBP on the team than it would be power.
Improving OBP makes you better. Period. If you can’t get the power, you can try later, I think. It’s an important part of offense, to be sure, but that shouldn’t be the be-all, end-all–you can certainly improve the offense without it.
Everybody is talking about Figgins getting 4/$40M. Yet, Scutaro (and Palanco) have seemingly signed for less than expected and for only 2 year deals. Plus, Philly has filled its 3rd base hole, taking one serious bidder away.
Doesn’t that make it more likely that we could get Figgins for 4/$30M? He is a younger player tha Palanco and Scutaro, but he’d also be getting a longer deal.
I would be all for the 4/$30M signing, but when a player starts making $10M or more, it gets a little scary for the payroll (even though Figgins would probably be worth it)
Any thoughts on the price dropping on Figgins? Hoping to leave room to sign N. Johnson and Harden still.
for completely emotional reasons, I would love to see Chone in a Mariners uniform. I would argue that while home runs are great, baseball is more interesting (at least to me) with runners on base. A Ichiro Chone 1-2 would seem to make for some interesting games.
How long does Beltre have to accept or reject the arbitration offer? Seems like they have to wait that out (if they can) before they sign Figgins. Even though they could play Figgins at 2nd and dump Lopez if Beltre accepts, it forces a move — and thus costs them trade leverage — if they jump the gun.
Sorry, did my homework after making that post. Players offered arb have until midnight Monday (12/7) to accept.
Well, if they sign both Figgins and Beltre, then trading Lopez is the most likely outcome.
But that doesn’t seem likely.
Ralph_Malph: free agents have until the 7th (next Monday) to accept arbitration, which is (not coincidentally) when the Winter Meetings kick off in Indianapolis. And that’s when the hot stove season gets really fun. Also, two things:
1. “Leverage” doesn’t matter as much as most people think (per Dave), and
2. Where’s Potsie?
I don’t think we know yet how the market is developing. Those guys are infielders, true, but they’re not among the headline names (though they started edging into that territory because the Red Sox was involved, and anything involving the Red Sox and Pedroia and shortstops generates a tempest-in-a-beanpot). Figgins, on the other hand, is one of the headline names this offseason. It’s possible we’ll see everybody from Holliday and Lackey on down come in cheaper than expected: the economy hasn’t improved much, and a remarkable number of teams are in unsettled ownership situations. Of course it’s also possible we’ll see something of reverse of last year, and the Rauls of this offseason will be the guys who sign relatively late. I just think it’s too early yet to jump to any conclusions.
Ichiro seems to care a lot about getting to 200 hits each year. Certainly more than hitting a few more homers (and the claims that he could do so “if he wanted to” always seem to come from others, not from him).
While I’ll say again we’re getting ahead of yourselves, it is a fun game. So: I love having speed at the top of the order, but I don’t know that the relative ordering of those three guys would matter as much as you think. Gutierrez will only see more fastballs if pitchers think he can’t hit them. There’s probably more benefit to him in having Figgins frequently getting on base ahead of him than in having Ichiro batting behind him, because without a base open pitchers are less likely to risk a walk with the bendy stuff (this would be true with Ichiro leading off too, of course). Given all the infield singles Ichiro hits, having guys on base creates more opportunities for fielders-choice outs (though Ichiro, with insane bat control and more holes in the infield thanks to fielders holding runners, probably can change his approach to mitigate that). But Ichiro only “protects” Gutierrez if pitchers perceive Gutierrez as a much weaker batter (in his own way) than Ichiro, and that only holds for any length of time if he actually is — and since arriving in Seattle he’s certainly been doing his best to disprove that. In fact, some of the “mo powah!” next year may come from him.
One more interesting note: James has Figgins as being responsible for 46 manufactured runs last season, tops in the AL. For comparison, that’s twice as much as the Mariners’ top contribution, 23 from Ichiro.
As I understand it, in its simplest terms this is a measurement of infield hits plus baserunning.
So I think that suggests not only an argument for Figgins in the lead-off spot, but also another reason why power isn’t everything.
My favorite aspect of a potential Figgins signing is the flexibility it gives us beyond this year. For example, say Beltre (with the Phils’ Polanco signing) decides he won’t get more money anywhere else and decides to accept arbitration. That means this alignment for 2010:
3B – Beltre
2B – Figgins
Ackley developing his 2B skills in the minors
In 2011, we would have the ability to let Beltre move on (maybe he’ll break out and move up to a Type A free agent), move Figgins to third and bring Ackley in at 2nd.
Figgins is the type of player you can afford to give a longer term contract to because of his positional flexibility and patient approach that won’t regress as much as other skill sets.
I would like this signing, personally. First and foremost it gives you a quality switch-hitter who should frequently be on base.
But after that, it could give the M’s so much flexibility going forward. Figgins could be a regular at 3B/2B or left. I wouldn’t put him at first, or anywhere else for that matter, but I suppose you could.
But anyway, the dream scenario (although grounded in reality) I would envision is Figgins as the M’s regular 2B, but also play him alot in left to spell Saunders. Since it doesn’t look like there is much interest from other teams in Lopez, keep him (he is still fairly cheap), and make him your main DH. Then sign Branyan or Johnson. Have Lopez spell them at 1B (because either will ‘should’ only play about 100 games there). You could play Lopez at 2B when Saunders is sitting. At the coup de grace is signing Beltre to play 3B for a few more years
Anyway, I love power hitters too, but you can’t always get everything you want, and there are alot of ways to score runs etc etc
Good point about the infield hits, so in your scenario where does this leave Gutierrez? Ichiro! needs to lead off assuming he isn’t willing to change his approach (which I think is a big assumption he still reached 215 hits in ’08 with a “low” .310 average, granted 686 AB). I’d assume you would want Figgins in #2 instead of #3 or #5. Do you slide him to say the bottom half of the order? That seems like a waste to me, but at the same time he isn’t good enough for the middle of the order yet. This would of course be a GREAT problem to have, and yes I am way ahead of reality here.
While I like the idea of adding a quality switch-hitting player with defence and discipline while simultaneously weakening a division rival, I regret the lost draft pick to said rival.
The ideal scenario to me seems to involve the Angels bidding higher and re-signing him while spending a few more millions than they otherwise would have had to.
If our existing options give us 1 WAR and Chone Figgins gives us 2.5 WAR for $10m then we are spending $6 2/3m per win, significantly over the budget Dave laid out.
If there is a $25m budget then Harden at $10m, Branyon at $6m and and Figgins at $10m exceeds it. We then have Branyon, Griffey, Carp and Shelton for FB and DH and no Zaun or equiv.
Z should definitely be discussing many options including this one. I don’t understand that it is the lowest $/WAR option.
All I know is, whoever bats behind those two will drive in a lot of runs. Maybe they could win the MVP!
Griffey for MVP!!!
Rosenthal says deal is very close, for about 4/36.
I give it a thumbs up.
If it’s that money, I think it’s a no-brainer.
Yes, very happy if its under $10 million a year.
9 per??? Outstanding. I still hope we(“they” for those who don’t like this sort of speak) are still in on Lackey.
The amount of Chone Figgins projections on FanGraphs is about to go through the roof.
Ok, so do I get a reprieve for my love of Figgins? I thought I was driving that wagon alone…
Intellectually I like it – slightly concerned about a 4 year deal at his age, but the price is right.
Emotionally, however, it will be a hard deal to like if it goes through. I’ll just miss Beltre like heck – and plus I’ve just spent too much time directing irrational hatred towards Figgins for being a part of the freaking Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim California Earth. And for his stupid name. Now I might have to like him? Damn.
Well, I’m going to correct myself on this, because it’s a trap I’ve fallen into before (and others do as well).
Ichiro’s BA when
bases empty: .331
men on base: .336
.man on 1st: .331
.man on 2nd: .370
.men on 1&2: .318
Obviously he already knows how to change his approach. So ignore what I wrote. Ichiro! has only GIDP 43 times in 2312 opportunities in his career. He deserves his exclamation point, and I should never, ever doubt him.
Before I forget to mention this…
Nice…
As perpetually annoyed at him as I have been (and for the same reasons as you, Jer), I relish the opportunity to seize his peskiness and wield it in our favor. Some pitchers may say “oh crap” to themselves when Ryan Howard comes up with a man on, but plenty of pitchers hate it when Figgins comes to the plate in ANY situation.
No, but you’d have to stop irrationally hating him. On certain fielding plays you can still say “Beltre would’ve got that…” (though pretty much no other human being would have).
And should he don the becompassed orb, I for one will still be pronouncing his name the way it is spelled.
As good as this deal looks for at least the first two years (assuming it gets done, of course), the question still is will there be enough power to go around for this team to play deep into October next year?
That’s the question you’ve got to ask.
A legitimate #2 pitcher/sidekick for Felix wouldn’t hurt either.
I need mo POWAHHH!
I heard that you can score runs without extra base hits. Can anyone confirm or deny this?
Hahahaha, can’t argue that too much.
But it still wouldn’t hurt to have another left handed bat or two in our lineup.
Too bad Ibanez didn’t want to sign up to be our DH this year.
I like this better than the old relationship with the Angels where we’d get rolled and take the declining cast-offs. Sure Figgins isn’t as good as he was last year, but picking him up is both a good move for us AND a hit to our division rival. I know Bavasi wasn’t playing patty-cake with the Angels, but it sure felt like it sometimes.
Plus the deal isn’t too bad if it is as advertised. I’d like to think his skills make him tradeable in years 3 and 4 if you don’t need him anymore for some reason.
Mariner Fan-
What do you mean “Sure Figgins isn’t as good as he was last year”?
Unless I am missing something, we have not started the new season yet.
F$&% Yeah! For a guy who’s a 3 WAR player, that’s an awesome deal.
Dave said earlier this season that the M’s are going to need to squeeze extra runs out of their payroll than the standard $5M/win you get in free agency. This is a great start.
His performance last season is better than one might expect from a player with his actual level of talent.
What do you mean “Sure Figgins isn’t as good as he was last year�
Unless I am missing something, we have not started the new season yet.
Banton, Figgins was a 6+ WAR player last year. He’s done that exactly zero other times in his career, and usually hovers somewhere between 2.5 and 3+. It’s possible he’s turned some magical corner and will maintain this level of offense will hold up, but I don’t really see it.
I agree with Dave when he says, “Figgins isn’t going to repeat his 2009 season again, but he’s probably a +3 win player for 2010. . . ”
That’s something to be happy with given the flexibility we get along a reasonable price tag.
Despite the WAR, the defense, and the “peskiness” (could Figgins explode the Bloomquist grit-o-meter?), it’s the walks that get me excited. M’s were dead last is BB% and OBP – we need guys on base! Next up: someone to drive them in.
Unstated in that there’s a decent chance (though not a probability) that he does better than that. At 4/36, that’s not a bad price to pay.
Of course, if wins are still valued at about $4M per (this could go down if the market is really as soft as it is initially looking) then even a 3 WAR Figgins at $9M a year is a pretty good deal.
Thanks. I like to drop mots of varying bon-ness into my longer posts for the same reason Van Halen always requested a bowl of M&Ms of particular colors — to see if folks are paying attention. And to try to reward them if they are.
And because it amuses me, and I can’t help myself.
Heck, Rickey Henderson used to do it without any hits at all (walk, steal, FC advance to 3rd, FC score).
MLBTR says the price is coming down, currently at 4/35.
I know Dave budgeted his offseason plan for $95 million, but has there been any word on specifically what the budget is?
Figgins would put us around 80 million (a guess on the high end, I’m sure Dave knows the real number). Thing is, unless they’ve come out and said it, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the M’s push over 100 million. I don’t see any reason to assume they couldn’t afford Figgins along with, say, Johnson (or Delgado?), Harden and Lackey, if they really wanted to. We know they went over-budget to acquire Bedard. Among those four guys, Lackey seems like a guy Lincoln and Armstrong would increase the budget to sign.
Maybe they wouldn’t do that, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, is it?
Should we all be thanking Kenji? If he hadn’t returned to Japan would the Mariners still make this deal?
I really really really like this move. Of all the former Portland players bandied about this winter — like Bay, Nady, et al — Figgins is far and away the best fit for Seattle. I will have no trouble adjusting to loving Chone Figgins again.
Quite a few Portlanders remember cheering for Figgins back in ’98 when he played for the Rockies. Chone was already a pesky offensive spark plug and showed flashes of defensive brilliance too. He quickly became one of my favorite players.
We had the Rockies in ’98 because our beloved Beavers were stolen away taken to Salt Lake a few years before by a crummy owner. So, when Chone returned in a Buzz uniform in ’02 & ’03 it was very painful. He made matters worse by humiliating our beloved Beavers on a regular basis.
Of course, it was just a matter of time before he became a full-time Angel and a regular pain in the Mariners’ ass too. I have always liked seeing him play, but after all these years of swinging between love and hate, the idea of having Figgins back in the NW playing for a team that I love makes me very happy.